gtm us utility pv webinar

8/7/2019 GTM US Utility PV Webinar

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COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

The Report

• 170 Pages

• Perspectives: Developers, Suppliers, Utilities, Regulators

• State profiles and demand forecasts by state through 2015

• Detailed analysis of utility procurement strategies

• Competitive analysis of project developer trends and market shares• Current and forecasted project LCOE by technology and state

• Project barriers and potential consequences for utility market

•

Details at www.gtmresearch.com

http://www.gtmresearch.com/





Utility PV: A Nascent Market…

3

Source: GTM Research

306

6,123

10,529

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Operating Contracted (PPASigned)

Announced (Pre-contract)

C a p a c i t y ( M W -

d c )

U.S. Utility PV Pipeline

561 MW Scheduled for 2011

Completion




…But Growing Fast…

4


561

1075

1947

1100

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2011 2012 2013 2014

M W d c

Contracted Utility PV Pipeline by Expected

Completion Date




…and Highly Consolidated

5

•

Total 306 MW-dcoperating today

• SunPower and First

Solar have a

combined 76%

market share aseither developer or

supplier/EPC


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

O p e r a t i n g

C a p a c i t y ( M W - d c )

Ten Largest Operating Utility PV Projects

SunPower

Modules/EPC

First Solar

Modules/EPC

First SolarModules




Pipeline by State

6


761

122 10669 57 57 56 47 35 28 22 18 10 3 3 2 1

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

CA AZ NM NV TX OH CO NY NJ FL MD NC PA DE MA OR IN MI

M W d c

Contracted Utility PV Pipeline by State

California: 4596

Outside of California, RPS Solar Carve- Out States Dominate


http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/gtm-us-utility-pv-webinar 7/18COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

The Long Tail of Utilities

7


0102030

405060708090

S o u t h e r n C a l i f

o r n i a E d i s o n

P a c i f i c G

a s & E l e c t r i c

S a c r a m e n t o M u

n i c i p a l U t i l i t y

T u c s o n E l e c t r i c P o w e r

A r i z o n a P u b l i c S e r v i c e

P S E & G

V i n e l a n d M u n i c i p a l E l e c t r i c

D T E E n e r g y

A E P O h i o

D u k e E n e r g y

N V E n e r g y

S a n D i e g o G a s & E l e c t r i c

L o n g I s l a n d P o w e r A u t h o r i t y

P r o g r e s s E n e r g y C a r o l i n a s

X c e l E n e r g

y - C o l o r a d o

C P S E n e r g y

N a t i o n a l G r i d

S a n M i g u e l P o w e r

A s s o c i a t i o n

S t a t e

o f M a r y l a n d

S o u t h e r n M a r y

l a n d E l e c t r i c

G e n e r a l S e r v i c e s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n

D a v i s - M o n t h a n A i r F o r c e B a s e

A q u a P

e n n s y l v a n i a

D e l m a r v a P o w e r

S o u t h w e s t e r n P u b l i c S e r v i c e

S a l t R i v e r P r o j e c t

L a k e

l a n d E l e c t r i c

W M E C O

P E C O

Y o l o

P o r t D i s t r i c t

P N M

P o r t l a n d G e n e r a l E l e c t r i c

# o f U t i l i t y P V C o n

t r a c t s S i g n e d

Number of Utility PV Contracts Signed by Utility

The Long Tail of Utilities With 1-2 PPAs



Utility Procurement Strategy

PPA Affiliate DevelopmentUtility-Owned Generation

C e n t r a l i z e d

D i s t r i b u t e d

Duke Energy

Maintains a Diverse

Strategy

Affiliate: Sempra

Generation

Centralized PPAs and hybrid

PPA/UOG programs

PPAs for projects <20 MW

Early leaders in utility-owned DG

Affiliate: PSEG Solar

Source



Foreign Entrants

European PV Developers

Pure Play U.S. PV Developers

Divisions of Other

Corporate ParentsJoint Ventures

V e r t i c a l l y I n t e g r a t e d

M a n u f a c t u r e r s

U t i l i t y A f f i l i a t e s

I n d e p e n d e n t P o w e r P r o d u c e r s U

p s t r e a m E n

t r a n t s

T r a d

i t i on al E n t r an t s

Corporate EntrantsJV Entrants

U.S. Utility PV Project Developer Taxonomy



Leading Project Developers

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

First Solar

SunPower

LS Power

SunEdison

Fotowatio Renewable Ventures

Sempra Generation

Recurrent Energy

All Other Developers

Contracted Caoacity (MWdc)

Leading U.S. Utility Project Developers by Contracted

Pipeline


**But over 50 developers with at least one contracted project



The Disappearance of Pure Play U.S. Utility Project Developers

Established Developers New Entrants

Proven Acquirers Potential Acquirers

Potential Near-Term Target

For more information contact Shayle Kann, Managing Director, Solar Research at [email protected]



Technology Trends


•

Largely a function ofdevelopers to date (SPWR,FSLR)

• But expect aggressive entryfrom other manufacturers

(Chinese c-Si, a-Si)



Project Economics: When Will PV Compete?


$0.08

$0.09

$0.10

$0.11

$0.12

$0.13

$0.14

$0.15

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

L C O E ( $

/ k W h )

LCOE for a 10 MW Project by Technology, 2010-2015

CdTe Fixed - California Multi c-Si Fixed - California

Super Mono c-Si 1-Axis - California

Range by location & system pricing: $0.118/kWh-$-0.190/kWh

2011: CdTe and Super Mono c-Si Maintain Small Advantage Over Multi c-Si

2012-2014: Technologies Fall In Line; Project-Specific Characteristics Determine

Technology Choice





So Where Will Demand Arise?

15

1) California

2) States with RPS

solar carve-outs

3) States withindividual aggressiveutilities

Total: >3 GW by

2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

S h a r e o f N a t i o

n a l D e m a n d ( % )

U.S. Utility PV State Market Share Forecast, 2010-2015

Other States

Pennsylvania

Ohio

North Carolina

New York

New Mexico

New Jersey

NevadaMassachusetts

Maryland

Illinois

Florida

Colorado

Arizona

California





Primary Market Barriers

16

1) PPA underbiddingI. Outcome of highly competitive bidding process

II. Outcome dependent on component pricing dynamics

2) Market and Project Immaturity

I. Utilities will begin to raise price of entry and projectmaturity requirements

3) Project Finance

I. Cash Grant extension a near-term boon, but financeremains primary bottleneck




Final Thoughts: We Have a Long Way to Go

17

Source: DOE, GTM Research



COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED18

Thank You!

Shayle Kann

Managing Director, Solar

GTM Research

[email protected]

For more on the report, go to www.gtmresearch.com

Upcoming Greentech Media/GTM Research Events:

January 25-26, 2011

Jersey City, NJ

www.networkedsolar2011.com

March 14-15, 2011

Palm Springs, CA

www.solarsummit2011.com

mailto:[email protected]


http://www.networkedsolar2011.com/





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