guangzhou office 市场概览 property market · 2013. 12. 11. · 2 research & forecast report...

Office Knowledge Report

Location | SectorQuarter 2013 Accelerating success.

Guangzhou Office Property Market广州写字楼市场

Market Overview

市场概览

Guangzhou Grade A office leasing market staged a stable performance during 2013 3Q, however, the lease transaction warmed up a little, mainly due to the nail down of several ten-ants that were looking for new properties in the past quarters. Two office projects were completed in this quarter, inject-ing about 225,000 sq m of new supply to the market, which accounted for 6.8% of the total stock. The overall vacancy rate was driven up by 1.6% Q-o-Q to 24.5%. The average rental remained a downward trend but the decline rate was smaller than that in last quarter. It was recorded at RMB153.1 per sq m per month in 2013 3Q, down 0.7% Q-o-Q and 2.8% Y-o-Y. The main sources of tenants were from sectors of financing and investment, IT technological, etc.

The sales market continued to be prosperous during the past three months when the buyers for both investment and self-use were still zeal for the limited office properties for sale in the market. Tianying Plaza in Pearl River New City opened its show units in this quarter and the sales price was expected to reach RMB60,000 per sq m, a new price record in Guangzhou office market. The increasing purchasing demand gave the landlords confidence and push up the sales price to RMB33,796 per sq m in 2013 3Q, increased by 1.0% compared to last quarter.

2013年第三季度，广州市甲级写字楼市场整体保持平淡，但

较之上季度有轻微回暖，主要得益于早前积蓄的租赁客户多

选择在本季度签约成交。本季度，位于珠江新城两个项目落

成入市，共提供约225,000平方米新增供应，约占库存总量的

6.8%。新增供应的入市和低迷的市场需求促使全市甲级写字

楼整体空置率较上季度上升1.6%至24.5%。本季度甲级写字

楼平均租金保持下调趋势，但降幅有所收窄，录得环比下降

0.7%至每月每平方米153.1元，较之去年同期下降2.8%。金

融投资、IT科技等企业是本季度广州写字楼租赁成交的主要

客户。

甲级写字楼销售市场表现强劲，市场有限的可售项目继续得

到投资以及自用买家追捧。本季度珠江新城天盈广场开放样

板间，即将推出市场在售，预计售价将可达60,000元/平方

米，将刷新广州甲级写字楼销售市场新记录。持续旺盛的市

场需求刺激广州甲级写字楼市场需求处于持续上升通道，本

季度广州市甲级写字楼售价较上季度上升1.0%至每平方米

33,796元。

Market Indicator Q3 2013

Vacancy

Net Absorption

Price Rate

Rental

Table 1 Major Economic Indicators of Guangzhou表1 广州市主要经济指标

INDICATOR指标

Guangzhou GDP广州GDP

12.3%

9.0%

5.9%

5.76%

11.5%

8.7%

-0.7%

5.76%

13%

10.4%

3.3%

5.85%

11.0%

9.2%

5.4%

6.65%

10.5%

7.8%

3.0%

6.15%

12.4%

7.6%

2.9%

6.15%

China GDP中国GDP

CPI居民消费价格指标

Interest Rate (1 to 3 years Commercial Loan Rate)货款基准利率(一到三年期商业货款利率)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20131H

Source: Guangzhou Statistics Bureau, Colliers International Guangzhou资料来源: 广州市统计局，广州高力国际

Research & Forecast Report

Guangzhou | Office Services3Q 2013

2 Research & Forecast Report | 3Q 2013 | Office Services | Colliers International

Overall Supply, Demand and Vacancy

整体供应, 需求及空置状况

The new supply of Guangzhou Grade A office market in 2013 3Q were about 225,000 sq m, from Two Grade A office premis-es, Pearl River Tower and Poly Clover Phase. The overall level of Guangzhou high-end office buildings was upgraded along with the completion of new projects, like Pearl River Tower which used several terms of high technology and environmen-tal protection facilities, like cold-radiant air conditioner, wind power generation, etc.

The demand for mid to high-end offices was stable, when a number of domestic companies suspended the expansion or even contract the business considering an unfavorable macro economy environment, with the continuing slowing down of domestic economic growth rate and the depressed economy in western countries like Europe and the United States. On the other side, the leasing transactions showed a little warn up mainly benefited from the release and nail down of the tenants that were looking for offices in Guangzhou market. The leasing demand in this quarter was mainly from sectors like financial, IT technical, retail and trade, and professional services. Most of the transactions were recorded in Tianhe district. Typical leasing deals included: a gold investment company removed from R&F Center to the North Tower of Poly V and took about 1,700 sq m for office, Guangzhou Shangcen Clothes Company leased about 600 sq m at HNA Plaza in north Tianhe.

The overall vacancy rate was driven up by the large volume of new supply and a relatively stable demand, from 22.9% in 2Q to 24.5% in this quarter. Referring to the sub-markets, the va-cancy rate in Yuexiu district and north Tianhe remained at low level with a downward trend, the high vacancy rate was mainly caused by the lower occupancy rate in Pearl River New City.

2013年第三季度，位于珠江新城的保利克洛维一期和珠江城

正式落成交付，为广州甲级写字楼市场提供约225,000平方米

新增供应，其中珠江城大厦在硬件设施设备上，多采用国际

领先绿色环保技术，如冷辐射中央空调、风力发电等，进一

步提升广州甲级写字楼整体档次。

由于国内经济增长持续放缓，加上欧美经济增长低迷的外围

环境，国内外多数企业均暂停扩张或收缩业务，市场对中高

端优质写字楼市场需求保持平淡。但由于上半年积蓄有部分

潜在搬迁或新进驻客户，在经过谨慎选择后于本季度签约成

交。市场置换需求中不乏来自对租金成本预算降低而搬迁的

客户。租赁市场较之上季度有轻微回暖。市场成交主要来自

于金融、IT科技、零售贸易以及专业服务类企业，成交区域

主要集中在天河区。本季度主要成交包括：某黄金投资公司

由富力中心搬迁至保利V座，租赁北塔整层约1,700平方米；

广州尚岑服饰有限公司租赁海航大厦约600平方米。

受新增供应入市以及平淡的市场租赁需求影响，本季度广州

甲级写字楼市场整体空置率较上季度环比上升约1.6%点至

24.5%。各大子区域中，越秀传统商务区、天河北-体育中心

商务区市场平均空置率保持在低位，且持平稳下降趋势。目

前高空置率主要由珠江新城新入市项目推升。

Figure 1. Guangzhou GDP Growth vs. National GDP Growth图1. 广州GDP增长率vs.全国GDP增长率

Figure 2. Guangzhou Grade A Office Supply, Take-up and Vacancy Rate图2. 广州甲级写字楼市场供应量, 吸纳量和空置率

Guangzhou GDP 广州GDP China GDP 中国GDP

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20131H

Suppy 供应量 Take-up 吸纳量 Vacancy Rate 空量率



9.30%

12.30%

950,000

850,000

750,000

650,000

550,000

450,000

350,000

250,000

150,000

50,000

-50,0002008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20131H

11.50%

13.00%

11.00% 10.50%

12.40%

8.70%

10.30%9.20%

7.80% 7.60%

23.41%22.69%

15.90%

20.10%21.90%

26.10%


Rental Trend 租金趋势

Although the overall leasing demand remained cold in this quarter, the release of demand accumulated in the first half year slow down the rental decline rate. The average rental of Guangzhou Grade A office market was RMB153.1 per sq m per month, down 0.7% Q-o-Q. In the sub-markets, the rental of Yuexiu district and north Tianhe – Sports Center showed slightly increase when the low vacancy rate gave more confi-dence to the landlord to keep a high asking rental price. The average rental in the two areas were RMB115.1 per sq m per month and RMB152.5 per sq m per month in this quarter. By contrast, the rental in Pearl River New City continued falling, especially for the projects which were still under construction and for pre-lease. Facing the greater competition pressure of large volume of new supply in Pearl River New City, these landlords gave significant concession room for rental in order to rise up the occupancy rate and to alleviate the operation pressure when completed. The average rental in this area was RMB167.4 per sq m, down 1.7% Q-o-Q.

尽管整体租赁市场延续上季度的平淡走势，但由于部分潜在需

求在本季度释放，广州市甲级写字楼租金下调趋势有所放缓，

本季度录得为每月每平方米153.1元，较上季下调0.7%。各大

子区域中，越秀区和天河北-体育中心片区优质项目由于入住

率较高，业主心态较为强势，在租金报价上保持在高位，让步

空间较小。上述两个子区域市场本季度平均租金水平分别为每

月每平方米115.1元和152.5元，较上季度均有轻微升幅。珠江

新城甲级写字楼平均租金保持下行趋势，此种趋势在在建项目

上表现较为明显，考虑未来大量新增优质供应以及市场竞争压

力，不少新建项目业主在租金上给予较大的优惠空间和让步，

以提高项目预租率，缓解项目入市时运营压力。本季度珠江新

城甲级写字楼市场租金约为每月每平方米167.4元，较上季度

下调1.7%。

Figure 3. Guangzhou Grade A Office Effective Rent Growth Rate 图 3. 广州甲级办公楼实际平均租金和增长率

Table 2. Average Effective Rent of Guangzhou Grade A Office by District表2. 广州甲级办公楼分区平均租金

Average Rent 平均租金 Growth Rate 年增长率

Source: Colliers International Guangzhou资料来源: 广州高力国际

RMB/ sq m/ month


District分区

Average Effective Rent (RMB/sq m/m)

“The rental in Yuexiu district and north Tianhe – Sports Center remained at a high level. By contrast, the rental in Pearl River New City continued falling.越秀区和天河北-体育中心片区租金保持高位，珠江新城甲级写字楼平均

租金保持下行趋势。”

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0 1Q11

0.022%

6.20%

1.60%

6.10%

1.90%0.00%

-2.30%-0.61% 0.14%

-1.70%-0.70%

2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13

Tianhe天河

161.9

Yuexiu越秀

115.1

Haizhu海珠

93.3


Price Trend

售价趋势

The sales market continued to be prosperous during the past three months when the buyers for both investment and self-use were still zeal for the limited office properties for sale in the market. For example, Shanghai A.E. Smith purchased about 1,200 sq m at the second phase of Poly Clover during this quarter. Tianying Plaza in Pearl River New City opened its show units in this quarter and the sales price was expected to reach RMB60,000 per sq m, a new price record in Guangzhou office market. The increasing purchase demand gave the land-lord confidence and push up the sales price to RMB33,796 per sq m in 2013 3Q, increased by 1.0% compared to last quarter.

本季度销售市场表现强劲，市场有限的可售项目继续得到投

资以及自用买家追捧，如上海史密斯标牌有限公司购买保利

克洛维二期约1,200平方米办公面积自用。季内珠江新城天盈

广场开放样板间，预计售价将可达60,000元/平方米，将刷新

广州甲级写字楼销售市场新记录。持续旺盛的市场需求刺激

广州甲级写字楼市场需求处于持续上升通道，本季度广州市

甲级写字楼售价较上季度上升1.0%至每平方米33,796元。

Figure 4. Guangzhou Grade A Office Average Sales Price and Growth Rate 图 4. 广州甲级办公楼平均售价及增长率


35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

RMB/ sq m/

1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13

Av Sales Price 平均售价 Growth Rate 增长率

Table 3. Major Office Leasing Transactions in Guangzhou 3Q 2013 表3. 2013年第三季度广州写字楼租赁成交案例Company公司名称

GSG黄金铺

Poly V Plaza保利V座

Lease租赁

Tian He District天河区








1,700

500

700

420

1,189

2,326

2,200

1,000

Lease租赁

Lease租赁

Lease租赁

Sale购买

Lease租赁

Lease租赁

Lease租赁

HNA Plaza海航大厦

HNA Plaza海航大厦

GTLand高德置地广场

Poly Clover Phase II保利克洛维广场二期

Leatop Plaza利通广场

GTLand高德置地四期

TaiKoo Hui 太古汇

Tianlian Advertisement天联广告

Guangzhou Shangceng Clothes广州尚岑服饰有限公司

Personal个人

Shanghai Smith上海史密斯标牌有限公司

Hongyi Group鸿艺集团

Longfor Real Estate龙湖地产

Dupont Group杜邦中国


Project楼盘

Transaction Type交易类型

Area (sq m gross)面积(建筑平方米)

Location区域

0.60%

5.20% 5.60%4.90%

2.60% 2.50%1.60% 1.61%

-0.01%1% 1%


Outlook 市场展望It is expected that the domestic economic slowdown will con-tinue in the second half year, which will bring the slowdown trend to domestic manufacturing or financial companies. Consequently, the demand from these enterprises for the local high-end office properties will keep shrinking. The source of leasing demand in the coming quarters will be mainly from the retail and trade companies like fashion clothes, IT and elec-tronic equipment seeing the great support from the govern-ment to stimulate the domestic consumption and the gradu-ally warming of the consumption market. The uncertainty of external economic recovery in countries in Europe, America or Japan, will continue contribute to the decrease of leasing demand from these foreign or joint venture firms.

About 570,000 sq m of new supply is expected to complete during the coming year, including R&F Yingkai Plaza, R&F Yingtong Plaza, G.T.Land Phase 4, Agile Center and so on. The imbalance between overload new supply and limited demand will lead to the fall of the average rental. We predict that the vacancy rate in Pearl River New City will keep rising, which will drive up the overall vacancy rate of Guangzhou Grade A office market consequently.

2013年下半年，国内经济增速保持放缓趋势，此种态势延续

到国内制造、金融等企业，预计第四季度广州甲级写字楼市

场来自国内大型制造企业、金融机构等行业租赁需求将继续

保持低迷；相反，得益于内需市场逐步趋暖，零售贸易类如

服饰、通信电子等行业业务增长迅速，将是下一季度市场租

赁需求主要来源。另一方面，由于欧美及日本等外围经济复

苏不确定性较大，来自外资或合资企业扩张需求亦将保持萎

缩态势。

2013年第四季度到2014年，预计广州市将有约57万平方米

平方米新增供应完工入市，包括富力盈凯大厦、富力盈通大

厦、高德置地广场四期及雅居乐项目等。市场供过于求的矛

盾将日益凸显，写字楼市场租金下行压力较大；珠江新城片

区写字楼市场空置率将逐步走高，从而推升广州市甲级写字

楼市场整体空置率。

482 offices in 62 countries on 6 continents

United States: 140Canada: 42Latin America: 20Asia Pacific: 195EMEA:85

1.12billion square feet under management

13,500professionals and staff

$2billion in annual revenue

Copyright © 2013 Colliers International.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.

Primary Authors:Eric LamManaging Director | South China+86 20 3819 3888+86 20 3819 [email protected]

Regional Authors:Bryan Chan | Director

Colliers International Property Services (Guangzhou) Co., Ltd.702 Teem Tower208 Tianhe RdGuangzhou 510620 PRC

TEL +86 20 3819 3888

guangzhou office 市场概览 property market · 2013. 12. 11. · 2 research & forecast report...

Documents