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1© Prognos AG
Blueprint Germany
Strategy for a climate safe 2050:
thinking from the target
Prognos AG,
Institute for applied ecology, Dr. Ziesing
commissioned by WWF Germany
Dr. Almut Kirchner Salzburg Sept 06th, 2010
2© Prognos AG
Who is Prognos?
Foundation: 1959 in Basel, SwitzerlandLocations: Basel, Berlin, Bremen, Brussels,
Düsseldorf, Munich, StuttgartThink tank and innovative mediator for both public and private enterprises, government ministries, local authorities and international organisationsassistance in taking strategic decisions and in implementing them on the basis of authoritative and objective analyses, evaluations and forecastsinterdisciplinary cooperation of our teams is the basis for successful work for more than 100 national and international projectsConsultancy Areas:
- Economics & Demographics- Healthcare, Social Policy & Family- Innovation, Technology & Education- Public Management- Regional Development- Energy & Climate Protection- Waste Management, Secondary Raw Materials,
Regions of the Future
Environment
Economy
Innovation
Waste management
Energy
Policy and
Society
Learning and
Working
Healthcare
“Planning needs a concept for the future. The Prognos Reports help us to develop this concept.”Prof. Dr. Norbert Walter, Chief Economist, Deutsche Bank Group
For a company overview please refer to the attached company brochure W
ho is
Pro
gnos
3© Prognos AG
Our basic work principles: Scientific competence, expertise, commitment, experience creativity
Risk-Analysis
SWOT-Analysis
Benchmarking
Interviews / Desk Research
Prognos ownforecast models Plausibility check /
Feasibility
Competitive advantage matrix
We are committed to the best Swiss tradition of independence, neutrality and internationalism. Our values are: substance, innovative methods, accurate project work and last but not least, sustainable results.
We research using own research results compiled in a substantiated, long-term and continuingly updated database and a variety of public and non-public sources, and, in particular, in- depth interviews with customers, competitors, market experts and/or suppliers.
We evaluate based on facts and looking for solutions. Based on our branch and technology know-how and experience, we determine the competitive position and market perspectives of your target.
We forcast on the basis of sophisticated models medium- and long-term developments. Thus we bring you closer to the future and identify the key drivers as well as optimization potentials.
We focus to the specific needs of your investment project and are flexible to changing conditions during the process.
We work closely with our clients, providing a coordinated approach which focuses on the issues that influence your investment decision.
Prioritization matrix
Critical success factor
Strategy advise
4© Prognos AG
Any transaction needs analyses from different point of views. We use Prognos-wide experience...
Strategic and economic assessment of investment decisions Cost-benefit analyses, profitability check and business planningBusiness segment strategiesM & A monitoringRestructuring
Public Management5
Communication strategies for Infrastructure projectsCommunication management for environmentally relevantconflictsMediation projects
Communication6
The interdisciplinary cooperation of our team as well as our national and international partner network enables us to develop the right solutions: holistic, practical, based on the latest scientific findings.
1 Energy & Climate Protection
Analysis, scenarios and forecasts for energy systemsDevelopment of forecasts for electricity, gas, heat requirementsLong-term competitive analyses for power plants and price forecasts for electricity and fuelsEcological impacts (CO2 etc.)
2 Economy & Demography
Forecasts, scenarios and trends as a basis for future decisions Economic structure and branch development Impact of demographic and economic changes on the future infrastructure demand
3 Regional Development
Market, branch, use of potential and site analysis Regional monitoring and benchmarking Economic valuation of investments, cost-benefit and feasibility
Innovation & Technology4
Technological trend analysis on the basis of forecasting models Monitoring and controlling of processes of cluster development Regional training needs and skill analysis
5© Prognos AG
Project team
Prognos AGDr. Almut Kirchner (Project Director)Dr. Michael SchlesingerDr. Bernd WeinmannPeter HoferDr. Andreas KemmlerVincent RitsMarco WünschMarcus KoeppLucas KemperUte ZweersSamuel Straßburg
editorial assistant: Andrea Ley
Öko-Institut e.V.Dr. Felix Chr. Matthes(Project Director) Julia Busche Verena Graichen Dr. Wiebke Zimmer Hauke Hermann Gerhard Penninger Lennart Mohr
Dr. Hans-Joachim Ziesing
Proj
ect
team
s
6© Prognos AG
Reference scenario: assumptions and results
Age
nda
Agenda / Inhaltsübersicht
Innovation scenario: assumptions and results
Method, project organisation
additional measures and potentials
cost and savings issues
decomposition analysis
strategic conclusions
7© Prognos AG
Questions, Project Organisation
how can a reduction of -95 % GHG-emissions be achieved until 2050 in a highly industrialised country?
– Is this possible in the known patterns of industrial societies ?– How far are todays‘ policy instruments already adapted to meeting the target? – What has to be principally changed ?– What technical requirements must be met ?– Will people have to change their patterns of living and consumption?
Greatest part of GHG-Emissions in GER are energy related CO2-Emissions -the energy sector ist covered by detailed energy system model calculations
Que
stio
ns
8© Prognos AG
Scenarios and methods, project organisation3 steps:
– Reference szenario (bup): todays‘ policy for climate protection, efficiency development
ambitious development of known instruments,steady development and improvement of efficiency technologies, best practice-strategies
– innovation scenario (bup): target scenariostrategic assumptions for sectors of energy demand,technological innovationsmodal split in passenger transport, freight transportadaptation in structure of industry segments
– options without CCS and with CCS in power generation (from 2025)– phase out of nuclear power– gap: are there additional packets of measures which help closing a potential
gap? Changes in consuming patterns etc. (higher level of aggragation)? (Öko-Institut)
decomposition of results (institute for applied ecology & Dr. Ziesing) (top-down): contribution of influence factors, mile stones? strategic conclusions, proposal of political measures Sc
enar
ios
and
met
hods
9© Prognos AG
Description and results of reference secnario
10© Prognos AG
socio economic framework data
GDP: +43 %, 0,8 % p.a. pop.: -12,5 %, ageing population rel. 2010: +47%, 1,05 p.a. household size : 2,11 1,86 fr
amew
ork
data
11© Prognos AG
Reference scenario
strategy („if-then“)-scenario, effects of given policy measures
IEKP, continued and tightened, esp. buildings (EnEV, EEW-G, etc.), transport (vehicles), EU efficiency Services Directive etc.
technology (examples): – lighting: LED, OLED – innovative technologies based on gas (e.g. fc combined heat and power
heatings, gas powered heat pumps), – cross application technologies like motors, pumps, compressed air on
highest efficiency standards– waste heat use widespread in industry and services sector – Green ICT– chp …
refe
renc
e, a
ssum
ptio
ns
12© Prognos AG
Reference scenario (without CCS): energy related GHG- emissions
1990 – 2050:
w/o CCS: -52 %
w CCS: -57 %
Ref
eren
ce: r
esul
ts
14© Prognos AG
description and results innovation scenario
15© Prognos AG
innovation scenario, strategic packages of measures
method: set target for 2050 „what needs to happen that…“, iterative calculationspower production: development of renewables as in strategic scenario of DLR 2008, with less biomass in power prod., less importationBiomass: domestic primary potentails are limited to 1‘200 PJ …. (1‘700 - 2‘000 PJ with imports of sustainably produced biomass)Buildings: utmost standards (passive +) for new and upgraded existing buildings, nearly no fossile energy sources for space heatingtransport:
– shift of freight to rail, no nationwide new infrastructure
– strategic change to electric mobility in individual mobility (no regular fuel, nearly no Diesel fuel in 2050)
– no fossil fuels in motorised transport Biofuels of 2nd and 3rd generation in freight transport, some biogas in personal
individual mobility
inno
vatio
n: s
trat
egic
pac
kage
16© Prognos AG
innovation scenario: strategic packages of measures
technology: new key technologies for materials and processes
– materials (esp. compound materials, high efficiency, insulation materials), metals will be widely replaced and reduced
– nano, bio, bionics– process innovations (e.g. katalytic and enzyme-based processes
inchemical industry),– miniaturized processes– integrated processes (lab on chip)– example pharmaceutical industry: specific carriers reduce medication
aplied and produced to lower quantities, even lower orders of magnitude– example domestic appliances: waterless washing machines,
electromagnetic refrigeration– example ICT: visor technology
inno
vatio
n: s
trat
egic
pac
kage
17© Prognos AG
innovation scenario: strategic packages of measures
Industry and services: change in structure of segments (energy intensive industries: , further ind , services ), gross economic growth nearly unchanged (+ 0,3 +1%)
0,70
0,80
0,90
1,00
1,10
1,20
1,30
1,40
1,50
2005 2020 2030 2040 2050
Inde
xwer
t
energieintensive Branchen übrige Branchenenergieintensive Branchen übrige Branchen
inno
vatio
n: s
trat
egic
pac
kage
18© Prognos AG
industrial production values: comparison of scenarios
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2005 2050 Referenz 2050 Ziel
Mrd €
Gew. von Steinen, sonst. Bergbau Ernährung und Tabak PapiergewerbeGrundstoffchemie sonstige chemische Industrie Gummi- und KunststoffwarenGlas, Keramik Verarbeitung v.Steinen und Erden MetallerzeugungNE-Metalle, Giessereien Metallbearbeitung MaschinenbauFahrzeugbau Sonstige Wirtschaftszweige in
nova
tion:
str
ateg
ic p
acka
ge
20© Prognos AG
Innovation scenario: final energy comsumption
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
1'000
2'000
3'000
4'000
5'000
6'000
7'000
8'000
9'000
10'000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
IndexPJ
Kohle Heizöl Benzin aus Mineralöl Diesel aus Mineralöl Flugtreibstof f
Gase Strom Fernwärme Biokraf tstoff Biogas
Biomasse Umweltwärme Solarenergie
Private Haushalte GHD Industrie Verkehr
2005 2020 2030 2040 2050
Index CO2-Emissionen
res – 76%ser – 67 %ind – 5 3 %trans – 4 0 %FEC – 59 %
el – 38 %ren (w/o el)
+ 207 %
Inno
vatio
n sc
: FEC
21© Prognos AG
Innovation scenario: electricity consumption by type of use
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
1.800
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
PJ
PHH DL Kraf t DL Kühlen und Lüf tenDL Sonstiges Industrie Kraf t Industrie SonstigesGV Schiene PV Schiene PV Elektroautos
transport 2005: 58 PJ, 3,6 % of total comsumption of electricity2050: 187 PJ, 18,5 % of total consumption of electricity
E-Mobility 2050: 101 PJ (equiv. 30 GW PV inst. power, 15 GW wind power, ca. 5 GW baseload-pp) Inno
vatio
n: e
lect
ricity
con
sum
ptio
n
23© Prognos AG
Innovation scenario without CCS: power generation
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2005 2020 2030 2040 2050
TWh
Kernkraft Steinkohle Braunkohle Öl und sonstige Erdgas Speicher (Pumpspeicher, sonstige) Erneuerbare Stromimport
fossile pp: only gas (peak / )balancing powercapacity of storages: factor four
production from storages: factor eight
primary production RES: 85 % of net production
Inno
vatio
n w
ithou
CC
S: p
ower
gen
erat
ion
24© Prognos AG
Feed
-in R
enew
able
s
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
80.000
90.000
PV
Wind-Onshore
Wind-Offshore
Geothermie und Biomasse (25%)
Fluktuating feed-in from renewable sources in 2030, in MW
1001 2001 3001 4001 5001 6001 7001 8001
25© Prognos AG
Load curve in 2030, in MW (Germany, ex.)
Load
cur
ve
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
80.000
90.000
1001 2001 3001 4001 5001 6001 7001 8001
26© Prognos AG
Res
ultin
g lo
ad
-10.000
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
80.000
90.000
1 1001 2001 3001 4001 5001 6001 7001 8001
Resulting load in 2030 (electricity demand minus feed- in of renewables)
27© Prognos AG
Innovation scenario without CCS: Primary energy consumption (without non-energetic consumption)
0
2'000
4'000
6'000
8'000
10'000
12'000
14'000
16'000
2005 2020 2030 2040 2050
PJ
Kernkraft Steinkohle Braunkohle Heizöl schwerHeizöl leicht Benzin aus Mineralöl Diesel aus Mineralöl BiokraftstoffeFlugtreibstoff Erdgas, andere Naturgase Sonstige Gase BiogasAbfall Biomasse Umwelt- und Abwärme GeothermieSolarenergie Windenergie Wasserkraft
PEC total:-57 %
share or RES 2050: 73 %
Biomass: 1‘720 PJ
Inno
vatio
n w
ithou
t C
CS:
PEC
28© Prognos AG
Innovation scenario without CCS: energy-related greenhouse gases
0
200
400
600
800
1'000
1'200
1990 2005 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mio t CO2‐Äqu
ivalen
t
Private Haushalte GHD Industrie Verkehr Fernwärmeerzeugung Stromerzeugung Sonst. Umwandlung Energiebed. CO2-Em. gem. Inventar CH4 N2O
change in relation to 1990: -91 %
Inno
vatio
n w
ithou
t C
CS:
GH
G
29© Prognos AG
Innovation without CCS: total GHG emissions
0
200
400
600
800
1'000
1'200
1'400
1990 2005 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mio
t C
O2-
Äqui
vale
nt
Private Haushalte GHD IndustrieVerkehr Umwandlungssektor gesamt Energiebedingte sonst. EmissionenFlüchtige und prozessbed Emiss. Produktverwendung LandwirtschaftLandnutzung und Forsten Abfallwirtschaft Insgesamt THG-Emissionen
Inno
vatio
n w
ithou
t C
CS:
GH
G to
tal
change in relation to 1990: -87 %
30© Prognos AG
Innovation scenario: additional investments by sectors
Inno
vatio
n: in
vest
men
ts
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mio
. €
Wärme PHH Strom PHHDienstleistungssektor, annuitätisch Industriesektor, annuitätischE-Autos E-Tankst.Bahn Inf rastruktur
31© Prognos AG
Innovation scenario: additional investments vs. savings
Resultant: max. 0,6 % of GDP (2024)
Net saving from 2043 onwards
discounted sum:0,3 % BIP
Inno
vaito
n: in
vest
men
ts v
s. s
avin
gs
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Mrd. €
Investitionen Einsp.ohne CCS Einsp. mit CCS
Resultante ohne CCS Resultante mit CCS
32© Prognos AG
Additional packages to reach the target (-95 %)
CCS in industral processes (limestone, cement, iron/steel)renewably produced hydrogen in basic chemistry (production of ammonia)CCS in production of biofuels of 2nd and 3rd generation (net carbon sink)Biomethane for production of industrial process heatBiofuels in the aviation sectorchanges in land use, reduction of meat production (animal husbandry) and meat consumption
reduction 1990 – 2050: total -96 % sources of additional biomass ? Global p.c. equity estimation: imports
possible up to about 2100 PJ.
addi
tiona
l pot
entia
ls
33© Prognos AG
per-capita-emissions and cumulated emissionsAmbitious long-term targets & short-term mitigation are importantwichtig
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1990 2005 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050
t CO
2-Ä
qu./E
W
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Mrd
t. C
O2-
Äqu
. ab
2005
Andere THG - Pro-Kopf-Emission CO2 - Pro-Kopf-Emission Andere THG - kumulierte Emissionen ab 2005CO2 - kumulierte Emissionen ab 2005
Ist-Daten Referenzszenario Innovationsszenario Modell Deutschland
Prognos / Öko-Institut 2009
com
paris
on p
.c.,
cum
ulat
ed
34© Prognos AG
Decomposition analysis, method
top-down-method for comparison of scenariosidea: decompose results of scenarios (emissions) by influence factors
– extensive components (e.g. space, freight tons, population)– efficiency related components– substitution of energy sources– GHG-intensity (special cases CCS, nuclear power)– „innovation content“– time framework of investment
method works on aggregated scenario data by sector and energy sourcegraphical convention: „downward count“
Dec
ompo
sitio
n an
alys
is
35© Prognos AG
decomposition analysis I: energy effieciency & RES as core elements (60 %)
-1.000
-900
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mio
. t C
O2-
Äqu
. ggü
. 200
5
AndereLandnutzung und ForstenLandwirtschaftAbfallwirtschaftIndustrieprozesseBrennstoffwechsel (fossil)ElektrifizierungErneuerbare EnergienAndere EnergieeffizienzEffizienz GebäudeEffizienz StromanwendungNachfragen
Inno
vatio
ns-S
zena
rio
R
efer
enz-
Sze
nario
Mod
ell D
euts
chla
nd
Prognos / Öko-Institut 2009
Dec
ompo
sitio
n an
alys
is
36© Prognos AG
Decomposition analysis II:the greatest contribution to emission reduction is produced by long living capital
stock: immediate action is important
-1.000
-900
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mio
. t C
O2-
Äqu
. ggü
. 200
5
Weniger langlebiger KapitalstockLandnutzung und ForstenLandwirtschaftAbfallwirtschaftIndustrieprozesseBrennstoffwechsel (fossil)ElektrifizierungErneuerbare EnergienAndere EnergieeffizienzEffizienz GebäudeEffizienz StromanwendungNachfragen
Inno
vatio
ns-S
zena
rio
R
efer
enz-
Sze
nario
Mod
ell D
euts
chla
nd
Prognos / Öko-Institut 2009
Dec
ompo
sitio
n an
alys
is
37© Prognos AG
Decomposition analysis III:a growing share of the emission reduction is dependent of „innovation intensity“:
technology development as well as system changes
-1.000
-900
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mio
. t C
O2-
Äqu
. ggü
. 200
5
Weniger stark innovationsintensivLandnutzung und ForstenLandwirtschaftAbfallwirtschaftIndustrieprozesseBrennstoffwechsel (fossil)ElektrifizierungErneuerbare EnergienAndere EnergieeffizienzEffizienz GebäudeEffizienz StromanwendungNachfragen
Inno
vatio
ns-S
zena
rio
R
efer
enz-
Sze
nario
Mod
ell D
euts
chla
nd
Prognos / Öko-Institut 2009
Dec
ompo
sitio
n an
alys
is
38© Prognos AG
conclusions, strategic approaches
39© Prognos AG
(technical) system issues for renewables (and more)
development of RES-electricity and storage / grid should be realized parallel, well-directed and fast (20 GW storage capacity, ca. 20 GW balancing power)realisation (permit, planning, construction) Offshore-Windenergy capacities (38 GW), connection issues!Innovation and degression of specific costs PV (29 GW, 3rd Gen. crucial)system geothermal power (5 GW) – underground!development of biomass strategy, preparation for sustainable importing strategyestimation of regional and to local climate related biomass potentials strategic development of waste product and plant waste potentialsdevelopment of production processes for 3rd generation biofuelsdecentralized fossile chp is only a transitional solution for about one generation!new heat transporting grids only in very special cases mandatory energetic upgrade of buildingsCO2 – sink-strategy; development C-processingnew coal based power plants only with CCS or guaranteed upgrading
stra
tegi
c im
plic
atio
ns
42© Prognos AG
five strategic fields for public discussion – new consensus and alliances are necessary
Biomass: sources, trade, use in different fields in different periods
CCS as necessary option (apart from the power plant sector)(processes, sink for biomass refoming processes)
district and local heating, lock-in-situations should be avoided
organisation, distribution of burdens especially for upgrading of buildings (substantial social questions)
Infrastructure (electricity, natural gas, CO2) – Investments under uncertainty, negotiation processes with potential for substantial public conflicts
long lasting processes and negotiations – better start asap !
43© Prognos AG
6i-strategie
Innovations of all kinds ,Infrastructures of the future,Industrial creativity,Integrated strategies,Intelligente regulation, andInternational cooperation
44© Prognos AG
Dr. Almut KirchnerMarktfeldleiter Energie- und KlimapolitikHenric Petri-Strasse 9CH-4010 BaselT: +41 61 32 73 331E: [email protected] web: www.prognos.com Publ.-Db 15.10.2009
your contact:
© Prognos AG
Thank you for your attention!
54© Prognos AG
Referenz: Rahmendaten Branchen, Beschäftigte
Rah
men
date
n
55© Prognos AG
Referenz: Rahmen Verkehr
Rah
men
date
n
PV: - 6 % GV: + 83 %
58© Prognos AG
Innovationsszenario, Ergebnisse PHH
- Reduktion des Raumwärmebedarfs auf 14 % (2005 – 2050)-praktisch vollständige „Durchsanierung“ des Bestandes- hohe Solarthermie- quote
Inno
vatio
n, P
HH
59© Prognos AG
Ergebnis Innovationsszenario, Dienstleistungssektor
- Reduktion des Raumwärmebedarfs fast vollständig(2005 – 2050)-Kühlen / Lüften + 15 %- Prozesswärme, Kraft nicht beliebig reduzierbar
Inno
vatio
n, D
L
60© Prognos AG
Ergebnis Innovationsszenario, Industrie
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
500
1'000
1'500
2'000
2'500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
IndexPJ
Steinkohle Braunkohle Mineralöle Gase
Strom Fernwärme Erneuerbare
Raumwärme Beleuchtung Prozesswärme mechanische Energie
Information und Kommunikation
2005 2020 2030 2040 2050
Index CO2-Emissionen
Prozess- wärme: – 50 %Kraft: – 43 %Hauptenergieträger: Gas und StromKohle in Restgrössen (Stahl)
Inno
vatio
n, In
dust
rie
61© Prognos AG
Ergebnis Innovationsszenario Verkehr PKW nach Antriebstypen, in Tsd.
0
5'000
10'000
15'000
20'000
25'000
30'000
35'000
40'000
45'000
50'000
2005 2020 2030 2040 2050
Tsd.
Benzin, ohne Hybrid Dieselantrieb Benzin, Hybrid Plug-in HybridantriebElektroantrieb Brennstof fzellenantrieb Flüssiggasantrieb Erdgasantrieb
Inno
vatio
n, V
erke
hr
62© Prognos AG
Ergebnisse Innovationsszenario Verkehr, Energieträger
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2005 2020 2030 2040 2050
PJ
Bioethanol Benzin aus Mineralöl Biodiesel Diesel aus Mineralöl Flugtreibstoffe Erdgas
Flüssiggas Wasserstoff Strom
Bioethanol Benzin aus Mineralöl Biodiesel Diesel aus Mineralöl Flugtreibstoffe Erdgas
Flüssiggas Wasserstoff Strom
Index CO2‐Emissionen
Personenverkehr
Güterverkehr
Güt
erve
rkeh
rPe
rson
enve
rkeh
r
Inno
vatio
n, V
erke
hr
63© Prognos AG
Innovationsszenario, Ergebnisse Endenergieverbrauch
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
1'000
2'000
3'000
4'000
5'000
6'000
7'000
8'000
9'000
10'000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
IndexPJ
Kohle Heizöl Benzin aus Mineralöl Diesel aus Mineralöl Flugtreibstof f
Gase Strom Fernwärme Biokraf tstoff Biogas
Biomasse Umweltwärme Solarenergie
Private Haushalte GHD Industrie Verkehr
2005 2020 2030 2040 2050
Index CO2-Emissionen
PHH – 76%DL – 6 7 %Ind – 5 3 %Verk – 4 0 %EEV – 59 %
Strom – 38 %EE (ohne Strom)
+ 207 %
Inno
vatio
n EE
V
64© Prognos AG
Innovationsszenario, Ergebnis Stromerzeugung „mit CCS“
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2005 2020 2030 2040 2050
TWh
Kernkraft Steinkohle Steinkohle mit CCS Braunkohle Braunkohle mit CCS Öl und sonstige Erdgas Speicher (Pumpspeicher, sonstige) Erneuerbare Stromimport
fossile KW: nur noch Gas (Spitze / Regel) und CCS (3 GW SK, 10 GW BK)Ausbau Speicherkapazität Faktor 2,4,Verfünffachung Speichererzeugung
Inno
vatio
n, S
trom
mit
CC
S
65© Prognos AG
Innovationsszenario, PEV (ohne nichtenergetischer Verbrauch) ohne CCS
0
2'000
4'000
6'000
8'000
10'000
12'000
14'000
16'000
2005 2020 2030 2040 2050
PJ
Kernkraft Steinkohle Braunkohle Heizöl schwerHeizöl leicht Benzin aus Mineralöl Diesel aus Mineralöl BiokraftstoffeFlugtreibstoff Erdgas, andere Naturgase Sonstige Gase BiogasAbfall Biomasse Umwelt- und Abwärme GeothermieSolarenergie Windenergie Wasserkraft
PEV gesamt:-57 %Anteil EE 2050: 73 %Biomasse: 1‘720 PJ
Inno
vatio
n, P
EV
66© Prognos AG
Innovationsszenario, PEV (ohne nichtenergetischer Verbrauch) mit CCS
0
2'000
4'000
6'000
8'000
10'000
12'000
14'000
16'000
2005 2020 2030 2040 2050
PJ
Kernkraft Steinkohle Braunkohle Heizöl schwerHeizöl leicht Benzin aus Mineralöl Diesel aus Mineralöl BiokraftstoffeFlugtreibstoff Erdgas, andere Naturgase Sonstige Gase BiogasAbfall Biomasse Umwelt- und Abwärme GeothermieSolarenergie Windenergie Wasserkraft
PEV gesamt: -59 %Anteil EE 2050: 59 %Biomasse 2050: 1‘720 PJ
Inno
vatio
n, P
EV m
it C
CS
67© Prognos AG
Ergebnisse Innovationsszenario: Energiebedingte THG (mit CCS)
0
200
400
600
800
1'000
1'200
1990 2005 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mio t CO2‐Äqu
ivalen
t
Private Haushalte GHD Industrie Verkehr Fernwärmeerzeugung Stromerzeugung Sonst. Umwandlung Energiebed. CO2-Em. gem. Inventar CH4 N2O
gegenüber 1990: -90 %
Inno
vatin
o, e
nbed
. TH
G m
it C
CS
68© Prognos AG
Innovation: Gesamt-THG ohne CCS
0
200
400
600
800
1'000
1'200
1'400
1990 2005 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mio
t CO
2-Ä
quiv
alen
t
Energiebedingte CO2-Emissionen Energiebedingte sonst. EmissionenNichtenergiebedingte Emissionen Insgesamt THG-Emissionen
69© Prognos AG
Innovation: Gesamt-THG mit CCS
0
200
400
600
800
1'000
1'200
1'400
1990 2005 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mio
t C
O2-
Äqui
vale
nt
Private Haushalte GHD IndustrieVerkehr Umwandlungssektor gesamt Energiebedingte sonst. EmissionenFlüchtige und prozessbed Emiss. Produktverwendung LandwirtschaftLandnutzung und Forsten Abfallwirtschaft Insgesamt THG-Emissionen
70© Prognos AG
Innovation: Gesamt-THG mit CCS
0
200
400
600
800
1'000
1'200
1'400
1990 2005 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mio
t C
O2-
Äqu
ival
ent
Energiebedingte CO2-Emissionen Energiebedingte sonst. Emissionen
Nichtenergiebedingte Emissionen Insgesamt THG-Emissionen