Note: This report is based on internal IBM analysis and is not meant to be a statement of direction by IBM nor is IBM committing to any particular technology or solution.

A new cloud-based cognitive platform emerges

원고 작성자: Bill Chamberlin, Distinguished Market Intelligence Professional, MD&I HorizonWatch

whchamb@us.ibm.com

한국지역소개 : IBM Korea Digital Business Group HYBRID Cloud solution 부문 이상욱 전문위원

swlee@kr.ibm.com , 010-4995-4322

Horizon Watch: 2017년에 주목 해야할 기술동향

Note: This report is based on internal IBM analysis and is not meant to be a statement of direction by IBM nor is IBM committing to any particular technology or solution.

About This Trend Report

19Feb2017

목적 : 이자료는 2017년도의 정보기술업계에 영향을 미치는 기술동향을 소개

합니다.

내용 : 시장선도 주체, 소비경향, 산업별 사례, 새로운 도전 사례 및 관련 정보들의

URL link 등 시장 동향에 관한 요약정보등이 있습니다.

How To Use This Report: 자료안의 URL Link들을 방문하시거나 , 해당자료의

내용을 살펴보셔서 기술동향 을 파악하시는데 활용하실수 있습니다.

Slideshare site : 해당자료는 SlideShare Site에서 언제고 받아보실수있습니다.

( http://www.slideshare.net/horizonwatching )

유의사항 : 해당문서는 IBM 내부 분석에의한 자료이며, IBM에의한 공식적인

기술지침이나 특정기술들을 확약 하는것을 의미 하지 않습니다.

2 Tech Trends to Watch in 2017 (External Version)

Note: This report is based on internal IBM analysis and is not meant to be a statement of direction by IBM nor is IBM committing to any particular technology or solution.

About IBM’s HorizonWatch Trends Research Program

신규 동향 ,비즈니스 이슈, 기술동향들을 연구하고 분석하는데 주력하고있으며 이로

인해서

– 미래를 위한 조금더 나은 IBM의 자체전략들을 수립하고

– IBM 고객분들의 좀더 나은 전략을 수립하시는것을 돕고 있습니다.

IBM 외부에 자료들을 공유하고는 있으나, 대부분은 IBM 직원이 주요

참조자들입니다.

IBM HorizonWatch Treand Research 프로그램은 2001년1월 이래로 매년 시행하고

있습니다.

3 19Feb2017 Tech Trends to Watch in 2017 (External Version)

Note: This report is based on internal IBM analysis and is not meant to be a statement of direction by IBM nor is IBM committing to any particular technology or solution.

“분야” 내역

2017 Tech Platform Trends

Trends

해당 주제는 주요 기술성장 분야 입니다. 이과제는 3rd IT Platform 을 이루는 주제들이며,

대부분의 고객들이 촛점을 맞추는 분야입니다.

*3rd IT platform : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_platform

Emerging Tech Trends

일반적으로 2017년부터 2025 사이에서 부각될만한 기술트랜드들을 연구 하며, 이러한

트랜드는 잠재적으로 현재의 Business process, Model 및 전체 산업에 바로 직접적인 영향을

줄수 있습니다.

Longer Range Tech

Trends

이분야는 2025년에서 2050년 사이의 좀더 장기적인 관점에서의 기술 트랜드를 다루고

있습니다. 이러한 분야들은 산업및 IBM 고객분들의 장기 Business 계획에 잠재적인 영향을

줄수 있습니다. ( 혹시 이런 장기적인 기술동향에 아이디어가 있으시면 알려주시기 바랍니다.)

Vertical Industry Topics

3rd Platform 성숙도 관점에서 Vertical solutions 은 점점더 중요해져가고있습니다. Vertical

solutions 부분에서 새로운 Application 과 Platform 의 포팔적인 증가를 예측하고 있습니다.

platform.

Business Trends 비지니스 트랜드 는 새로운 기술동향들을 적용하고 구현 한다는점에서 중요한 과제 입니다..

Consumer Trends 소비자의 소비성향은 기업내부에서 새로운 기술들의 구현을 가속화 시킬수 있으며, 많은

기술동향들 은 소비자의 기술적인 트랜드의 직접적인 결과물 들입니다.

현재 IBM HorizonWatch Trends Research Program 에서는 분야별로 120개 과제로 나누어서 연구 합니다.

4

“IBM직원, Crowdsourcing, 2차 과제용역등 을 통해서 연구하고 있습니다."

19Feb2017 Tech Trends to Watch in 2017 (External Version)

Note: This report is based on internal IBM analysis and is not meant to be a statement of direction by IBM nor is IBM committing to any particular technology or solution.

1. Horizon Trend Research Team 이 인지하고있는 전반적인 주제들을 공유하며

2. 또한 2017년도 주요관심 연구 주제들을 공유 합니다.

– Current Platform – Trends to watch

– Emerging Trends – 23개의 Trend 공유

Objectives of this deck

5 19Feb2017 Tech Trends to Watch in 2017 (External Version)

Note: This report is based on internal IBM analysis and is not meant to be a statement of direction by IBM nor is IBM committing to any particular technology or solution.

Sources: IMF, World Bank, IBM, Hay Group

For an IBM perspective on the Economy, visit our internal Corporate Economics page

Morgan Stanley: Global Outlook 2017

Goldman Sachs: 2017 MacroEconomic Outlook

The World Bank: Global Economic Prospects

1. Global growth will rise to a rate of 2.5% (real GDP) in 2017 and 2.9% in 2018, from a 2016 rate of 2.3%.

2. U.S. economy : infra 투자/방위비 증가등을통해 성장을 예측하나 , 빠른 금리인상 예측.

3. China remains a major driver of world economic developments.

4. Brexit 이미 영국 경기에 영향을 주고있으며, 실제 EU 탈퇴싯점 에는 유럽경기에 예측할수 없는 영향이 있을것으로 예상.

5. Income / Wages: 장기적인 소득 불균형은 계속될것으로 봄.

임금또한 계속 동결 될것으로 봄.

6. Risks: 통상,이민, 국제기구들 에 대한 대중들의 반감에 따른 불확실성.

“ 2017 년 미국의 성장 속도가 더 빨라지고 선진국이 안정적으로 성장하고 신흥국의 모멘텀이 회복되면서 글로벌 경기 회복에 대한 모멘텀이 강화 될 전망이다. 성장이 균형을 이루는 동안, 물질적 위험은 후기 경기 부양책, 빠른 금리 인상 및

세계화 반동으로 인해 발생합니다. .” Morgan Stanley:

Video | Global Economics: 2017 Global Macro Outlook: Faster Reflation, Fatter Tails

Global Economic 상황: Return to growth, but with issues and risks

Note: This report is based on internal IBM analysis and is not meant to be a statement of direction by IBM nor is IBM committing to any particular technology or solution.

현재의 IT Platform (2017) 아래의 기술과 역량들을 구현하는것으로 구성 되어있습니다.

7

1. Cloud Computing

2. AI/Cognitive Computing

3. (Modern) System Infrastructure

4. Mobile Devices

5. Internet of Things

6. Security

7. Big Data Platforms & Tools

8. Analytic Solutions

9. Collaboration Platforms & Tools

19Feb2017 Tech Trends to Watch in 2017 (External Version)

Note: This report is based on internal IBM analysis and is not meant to be a statement of direction by IBM nor is IBM committing to any particular technology or solution.

뿌리에서부터 나무가 자라듯이, 모든새로운 트랜드는 이런 Cognitive Platform을 기반으로 만들어질것입니다.

8

Some Examples…. 1. Conversational Services & Chatbots

2. Blockchain

3. Robotic Process Automation (RPA)

4. Service Robots

5. Industrial Robotics

6. Robotic Logistics

7. Drones

8. Driverless Vehicles

9. Enterprise Wearables

10. Augmented Reality

11. Virtual Reality

12. Fog (Edge) Computing

13. Quantum Computing

14. Affective Computing

15. Swarm Computing

19Feb2017 Tech Trends to Watch in 2017 (External Version)

Note: This report is based on internal IBM analysis and is not meant to be a statement of direction by IBM nor is IBM committing to any particular technology or solution.

새로운 IT 플랫폼은 경제 혁명의 4번째 물결을 일으킬것 입니다.

9

1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Key

Technologies

Steam Engine 연소 Engine, 전기 Computers, Internet Cloud, AI, Quantum

Computing, Nanotechnology,

Blockchain

Key Resource Coal / Iron Steel / Oil Silicon / Internet Sensors, Data, Renewables,

Next-Gen Nuclear

Manufacturing Machinery, Tooling,

Interchangeable parts

Assembly Line Just in Time, Programmable

machines

Intelligent Automation,

Robots, 로봇 공학

Transportation Trains, Canals, Ships Bikes, Cars, Buses,

Planes

Commercial, Infrastructure,

Electrification

On demand, Swarming

Communication Telegraph /

Newspapers

Phone, Radio, Printed

Ads

TV, Screens, Internet,

SmartPhone, Wireless, Social

Cryptography, AR/VR,

Holographic, Photonics

Financial

Services

Paper Money, Stock

Exchanges

Checks Credit, Funds, Credit Cards,

online payments

Blockchain, Digital Currency

Healthcare Traditional / Medical

Classification

유기 화학 , 미생물학 Drug Development, Molecular,

DNA

Life enhancement &

extension, Bio-Printing

Food Crops, Ranches 기계류, 비료,

관개시설(수로),

Science, Chemistry,

Corporations

3D Printed, Plant based

Clothing Cotton, Power Loom Synthetics Large Retailers Custom, 3D Printed

Companies /

Sectors

Banks, Railways Ford, GM, US Steel,

GE, Chrysler, Standard

Oil, Amoco, CBS,

AT&T

Alphabet, Amazon, Apple,

Comcast, Cisco, Facebook,

IBM, Intel, Microsoft, Samsung

?? ?? ??

Source: Morgan Stanley: Technology: Disruptions and productivity growth in the next decade of the digital revolution, IBM HorizonWatch

19Feb2017 Tech Trends to Watch in 2017 (External Version)

Note: This report is based on internal IBM analysis and is not meant to be a statement of direction by IBM nor is IBM committing to any particular technology or solution.

10

Industrial Intelligent Automation will be enabled by IoT, Cognitive/AI, Analytics, Intelligent Machines and Assembly Lines, Robots and Robotics, Edge (Fog) Computing and Swarming Technology

미래의 생산공정은 지능형 자동화가될것입니다.

19Feb2017 Tech Trends to Watch in 2017 (External Version)

Note: This report is based on internal IBM analysis and is not meant to be a statement of direction by IBM nor is IBM committing to any particular technology or solution.

현재 우리는 특수목적에 사용되는 산업용 로봇들이 증가 되는 것을 보고있습니다.

Connie (안내)

Tug (Hospitals) Fetch (warehouse) Botlr (Hotel supplies)

Robonaut (NASA)

Kompaï (노인 돌보미)

11

Tally (Retail) LoweBot (Retail)

Molly (Kitchen)

Pepper (emotion detection / advisor) Baxter (repetitive tasks)

19Feb2017 Tech Trends to Watch in 2017 (External Version)

Note: This report is based on internal IBM analysis and is not meant to be a statement of direction by IBM nor is IBM committing to any particular technology or solution.

미래의 농업은 로봇과 드론이 필연적으로 활용되어질 것입니다.

Hortibot (김매기)

Bonirob (김매기 & 비료주기

LettuceBot (솎음.)

정교한 농업

Yamaha RMAX (비료주기)

Image sources: see speaker notes

12 19Feb2017 Tech Trends to Watch in 2017 (External Version)

Note: This report is based on internal IBM analysis and is not meant to be a statement of direction by IBM nor is IBM committing to any particular technology or solution.

13

기술 예를 들어 IoT, Cognitive/AI, analytics, advanced vehicle communications, edge (fog) computing and swarming technology 등의 기술이 대기 오염및 교통혼잡을 줄여주고 궁극적으로는 생산성을 높이는on Demand 형태의 무인 운송 차량 운행을 가능케 할것 입니다.

Source: US Department of Transportation

지능형 자동화 운송 시스템

19Feb2017 Tech Trends to Watch in 2017 (External Version)

Note: This report is based on internal IBM analysis and is not meant to be a statement of direction by IBM nor is IBM committing to any particular technology or solution.

무인자동차가 현재 언론의 관심을 받고있으나, 다른형태의 자율주행차들이 개발되고 나타나고 있는점을 고려해봐야합니다.

Semi’s Construction Equipment

Cargo Ships

Cargo Planes

Trains Delivery vehicles

14 19Feb2017 Tech Trends to Watch in 2017 (External Version)

Note: This report is based on internal IBM analysis and is not meant to be a statement of direction by IBM nor is IBM committing to any particular technology or solution.

15

Enabling technologies will include IoT, AI, Cloud, Fog Computing, Swarming Technology, Quantum Computing technology. Companies to watch: • Uber • Airbus • Kitty Hawk / Zee.Aero • Joby Aviation • Urban Aeronautics • Lilium Aviation • AeroMobile • Volocopter

Image by: Chris J Magdalenski

미래의 항공운송은 자율운항 그리고 on demand 방식으로 운영될것입니다.

19Feb2017 Tech Trends to Watch in 2017 (External Version)

Note: This report is based on internal IBM analysis and is not meant to be a statement of direction by IBM nor is IBM committing to any particular technology or solution.

미래의 일, 조직구조는 아마 아래와 같은 조직구조일것 입니다.….

Management

Smart Robots, Vehicles & Things

Employees

Smart Robots & Things

Cognitive Coach

Customers

Smart Robots & Things

Cognitive Coach

Other Stakeholders and their “Coaches”

Cognitive Coach

16 19Feb2017 Tech Trends to Watch in 2017 (External Version)

Note: This report is based on internal IBM analysis and is not meant to be a statement of direction by IBM nor is IBM committing to any particular technology or solution.

미래의일은 cognitive시스템기술과 사람사이의 파트너쉽이 필연적으로 수반될것입니다.

Cognitive Systems이 뛰어난점

Locating Knowledge

Pattern Identification

Natural Language

Machine Learning

Eliminating Bias / Emotion

Endless Capacity

사람이 뛰어난점

Common Sense(상식)

Morals(도덕)

Imagination (상상/창의력)

Compassion (동정심)

Abstraction (추상적개념)

Dilemmas

Dreaming

Creativity

Generalization

Judgement

17 19Feb2017 Tech Trends to Watch in 2017 (External Version)

Note: This report is based on internal IBM analysis and is not meant to be a statement of direction by IBM nor is IBM committing to any particular technology or solution.

미래(2040-50)의 IT 플랫폼은 분산형 클라우드기반의 지능형 Apps 에 상당히 빠르고 효율적일것입니다.

18

특징들:

• Distributed / Edge Computing

• Secure

• Data as an Asset

• Blockchain

• Analytics

• Cognitive

• UX by Design

• Very Fast Zettascale computing (1021)?

19Feb2017 Tech Trends to Watch in 2017 (External Version)

Note: This report is based on internal IBM analysis and is not meant to be a statement of direction by IBM nor is IBM committing to any particular technology or solution.

지금부터는 Cognitive era platform 에서 발생하고 있는 몇가지 트랜드를 살펴 보겠습니다.

19

• Security

• System Infrastructure

• Cloud Computing

• AI/Cognitive Computing

• Mobile Devices

• Internet of Things

• Analytics

19Feb2017 Tech Trends to Watch in 2017 (External Version)

Note: This report is based on internal IBM analysis and is not meant to be a statement of direction by IBM nor is IBM committing to any particular technology or solution.

Security : Trends to watch in 2017… and beyond

20

Increased pressure on CISOs

Security services in demand

Focus turns to “Response and Remediation”

Growth in SIEM, IAM, mobile security and

services

Edge of IoT devices and apps create new

security revenue opportunities

Cognitive security

IBM: Step up to the Cognitive Era with Watson for Cyber Security

“지능적 보안 시스템 의 토대위에 Cognitive 시스템 은 단순히 대답뿐아니라 가설, 증거 기반 추론 그리고 실시간의 향상된 결정에 대한 추천이 가능합니다. 결론적으로 cognitive security는 현재의 기술의 한계를 보완하고, 사이버 범죄를 다루는 복잡성과 비용을 줄일수 있습니다.” IBM

19Feb2017 Tech Trends to Watch in 2017 (External Version)

* SIEM : Security information and event management * IAM : Identity Access Management

Note: This report is based on internal IBM analysis and is not meant to be a statement of direction by IBM nor is IBM committing to any particular technology or solution.

Systems Infrastructure: Trends to watch in 2017 … and beyond

21

Migration to Cloud continues

Infrastructure vendor들의 시장 점유율 이동

x86 and Linux OS 는 계속 인기

계속해서 새로운 Infra 기술에 관심

Hyperconverged infrastructure

Blog: IBM Systems Blog

451 Research: 40% of Enterprises Are Using Hyperconverged Infrastructure

19Feb2017 Tech Trends to Watch in 2017 (External Version)

Note: This report is based on internal IBM analysis and is not meant to be a statement of direction by IBM nor is IBM committing to any particular technology or solution.

Cloud Computing: Trends to watch in 2017 … and beyond

22

Convergence of IaaS and PaaS Cloud services

AI and IoT use cases drive cloud adoption

Industry Clouds will be one of the fastest growing

segments (대표적인 Industry Cloud : AMADEOUS for

AIRLINES)

Containers will alter cloud platform and

management strategies (Docker)

Cloud hyperscale providers growth creates

virtuous cycle(선순환의고리를 .. )

IBM developerWorks: 5 Things to Know about Shifts in Key Business Drivers for Cloud Computing Usage

“ 기업은 계속해서 Cloud를 구축하는데 촛점을 맞출것입니다. 또많은기업이 계속해서 적절한 기술을가진 후보들을 고용하는데 있어서 장벽에 부딫칠것 입니다” CIO

19Feb2017 Tech Trends to Watch in 2017 (External Version)

Note: This report is based on internal IBM analysis and is not meant to be a statement of direction by IBM nor is IBM committing to any particular technology or solution.

Mobile Enterprise: Trends to watch in 2017 … and beyond

23

Incorporating new technologies

IoT projects drive mobile initiatives

Developers demand better tools and UX

Self-Service analytics capabilities

Managing apps and information

Security and real-time risk awareness are top

concerns

IBM: How a mobile development platform can help IT pros cut through clutter

IBM & SMG: 2016 Mobile Security & Business Transformation Study

19Feb2017 Tech Trends to Watch in 2017 (External Version)

Note: This report is based on internal IBM analysis and is not meant to be a statement of direction by IBM nor is IBM committing to any particular technology or solution.

Internet of Things: Trends to watch in 2017 … and beyond

24

IoT drives demand new technologies

Early adopters move to larger projects

Innovation occurs with IT & Operational Technology

Integration

Increased focus on “Edge Computing”

IoT is a solutions play, driven by consulting

IoT drives “data economy” Data가 수익화

Security issues remain

IBM 3 trends driving IoT innovation

“The Internet of Things는 기업( 물리적 세상에서 디지털의 변화를 추진하는 자체학습환경을 만드는)들이 수년내에 겪을 디지탈 변화의 주된 화두일것입니다.” IBM: Top five Internet of Things trends for 2017

19Feb2017 Tech Trends to Watch in 2017 (External Version)

Note: This report is based on internal IBM analysis and is not meant to be a statement of direction by IBM nor is IBM committing to any particular technology or solution.

Analytics: Trends to watch in 2017 … and beyond

25

Key driver is IoT data

다양한 DATA와 소스에 상관없는 분석 Tool에 촛점

Data lake 의 부상

Spark / Hadoop growth continues

Rise of machine learning

LOB influence grows

Self service analytics

Forbes Driving Value By Monetizing Data From The Internet Of Things

IBM: Analytics: Dawn of the cognitive era

19Feb2017 Tech Trends to Watch in 2017 (External Version)

Note: This report is based on internal IBM analysis and is not meant to be a statement of direction by IBM nor is IBM committing to any particular technology or solution.

AI/Cognitive Computing: Trends to watch in 2017 … and beyond

26

Venture Capital 과 startups 기업들

독점권

Acquisitions continue to accelerate

벤더들은 그들의 platform으로 개발자들을

몰아갈것.

Consumer AI tech drives market

Conversational services explode

World of Watson: Ginni Rometty keynote

IBM: The cognitive advantage report

19Feb2017 Tech Trends to Watch in 2017 (External Version)

Note: This report is based on internal IBM analysis and is not meant to be a statement of direction by IBM nor is IBM committing to any particular technology or solution.

Other trends we are watching in 2017

27

1. Conversational Services & Chatbots

2. Blockchain

3. Augmented Reality

4. Virtual Reality

5. Enterprise Wearables

6. Industrial IoT

7. Fog (Edge) Computing

8. Industrial Robotics

9. Robotic Logistics

10.Enterprise Service Robots

11.Enterprise Drones

12.Driverless Vehicles

13.Vehicle to Vehicle Communications

14. Intelligent Vehicle Transportation

15.On Demand Aviation

16.Swarm Computing

17.Cognitive Computing & Education

18.Healthcare Analytics

19.Sports Technology

20.Data Monetization

21.Digital Marketing

22.The API economy

23.Robotic Process Automation

24.Affective Computing

25.Quantum Computing

26.Software Development

19Feb2017 Tech Trends to Watch in 2017 (External Version)

Note: This report is based on internal IBM analysis and is not meant to be a statement of direction by IBM nor is IBM committing to any particular technology or solution.

Conversational Services and Chatbots: Trends to watch in 2017 … and beyond

28

계속해서 구축시도들이 가속화

잠재적인 장점들이 계속 적용하는 기업의 관심유도

적용산업의 사례들에대한 인식들이 점점

커져갈것임.

Best 서비스의 특성들에 촛점

벤더들이 개발자들을 그들의 Platform에

익숙해지도록 노력.

VentureBeat: The state of bots: 11 examples of conversational commerce in 2016

“ 사용자 경험은 실망스러운 상황으로 남아있습니다. 시스템이 말을 하게하는일이 쉬운 일일지라도 ,일반적인 대화의완벽성을 만들어내지는 못하고 있습니다.” IBM Research Conversational UX Design CHI 2017 Workshop

19Feb2017 Tech Trends to Watch in 2017 (External Version)

Note: This report is based on internal IBM analysis and is not meant to be a statement of direction by IBM nor is IBM committing to any particular technology or solution.

BlockChain: Trends to watch in 2017 … and beyond

금융서비스 분야에서 우선 적용

다른 산업과의 연계 인식/구축 또한 이루어질것

표준화 (Much work remains on standards and on interoperability. Ripple Lab, Chain,

Digital Asset Holdings, the 50-plus member R3 CEV consortium and the Linux Hyperledger

Foundation are all working to develop enterprise grade distributed ledger frameworks )

Blockchain 은 IOT 분야를 안전하게 할것임.

개발자들은 특정산업에 특화된 분산 Application 에

Blockchain 을 구축/경험 하는부분에 집중할것이며,

또한 이러한 작업을 편하게 지원하는 Cloud Vendor에

관심을 같게 될것입니다.

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“블록체인은 IOT분야에서 보안을 개선시키는고 가치가 낮은 장치들을 장비들을 가치가 있게하고, 장비의관리를 쉽게 가능토록하는부분 것에의해 주요 부분으로 자리를 잡아가고 있습니다.” IBM: What blockchain means for you, and the Internet of Things

Forbes: How Blockchain Will Evolve In 2017

CB Insights: Banking Is Only The Start: 27 Big Industries Where Blockchain Could Be Used

19Feb2017 Tech Trends to Watch in 2017 (External Version)

Note: This report is based on internal IBM analysis and is not meant to be a statement of direction by IBM nor is IBM committing to any particular technology or solution.

More Insights on Technology Trends are Available

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Other slide decks in this 2017 Trend Report series will be posted to Slideshare

You are also invited to check out the following IBM websites and resources

– IBM Academy of Technology

– IBM Institute for Business Value

– IBM Research and Research News and 5 in 5

– IBM’s THINK blog

– IBM Think Academy on YouTube

19Feb2017 Tech Trends to Watch in 2017 (External Version)

Note: This report is based on internal IBM analysis and is not meant to be a statement of direction by IBM nor is IBM committing to any particular technology or solution.