How governments use fiscal policy to stimulate the birth rate

經濟三乙　 95208030 張景勛經濟三甲　 95208069 羅偉哲經濟三甲　 95208031 曹富雅經濟三乙　 95208060 林真安經濟三乙　 95208064 吳溦琦經濟三乙　 95208024 張倚慈經濟三乙　 95208012 陳以珩經濟三甲　 95208013 魏秉誠歷史四 　　 93103001 賴芊曄廣電四 　　 94403004 陳柔之

Introduce of Fertility Rate

• Crude Birth Rate: The number of births per 1000 people per year

• General fertility rate: The number of births per 1000 women aged 15 to 44 or 49 (varied from country) in a certain year

Introduce of Fertility Rate

• Total Fertility Rate: The mean number of children a woman is expected to bear during her child-bearing years (15 to 49)

Introduce of Fertility Rate

• Replacement Rate: The total fertility rate at which newborn girls would have an average of exactly one daughter over their lifetimes; The replacement fertility rate is roughly 2.1 births per woman for most industrialized countries.

Reasons why birth rate decrease in Taiwan

• Rate of late marriage and non-marriage increases

• The idea of birth control becomes popular• It is getting much more expensive to raise

children• Living pressure is much serious than before• Parents put much emphasis on education

Impacts of low birth rate in Taiwan

• Education institutions will suffer a great loss• The infantile industry will suffer a great loss• Future total labor supply will be expect

insufficient• The population is getting old

• In developed countries, the trends of birth rate are tending to decrease almost in the same direction, such as United States, Canada, Japan, Germany, Taiwan, etc. The reasons that cause reduction of fertility rate are list below, nearly the same all around the world.

Some reasons that cause low birth rate around the world

• 1. The world marriage age has the tremendous change which postpones backward.

• 2. Regardless of the gender, the life of single situation is getting longer.

• 3. The number of adopting birth control is increasing.• 4. In developing countries, more and more people uses

modern contraceptive methods.• 5. Living together relationships, marriage age and the use

of contraceptive drugs have decreased the birth rate immensely.

• 6. In developed countries, birth standards are commonly low. Between 1950’s and 1960’s, althouge most countries have experienced baby high-tide period.

Taiwan V.S. other countries (expenditure)

Taiwan’s policy

Taiwan’s policy under other countries’ effect :

• Subsidy for family with more than3 kids for housing• Kids subsidy• Support: institutions provide special offers for family

with kids

Taiwan’s policy

The difference between Taiwan’s policy and the others’ :

• Increasing the supporting part especially on house-caring(babysitters)

• It’s strongly advised that making “babysitter” a mature and reliable system. In the meanwhile, the housing-caring subsidy can also reduce parents’ burden and encourage more babysitters to have professional training first.

• Non-profit “classes after School” system

Taiwan V.S. other countries (income)

Taiwan’s policy(income)

Taiwan’s policy under other countries’ effect:

• System set in enterprises for child care• Elastic working hours &Making professional child care

system friendly• Encourage or even praise the enterprises to come up

with new child care plans• The insurance law for the employees• Subsidy for leave without pay• Under military

Policies to stimulate birth rate

• Divide into two kinds: government expenditure, government revenue.

• Analyze the effect of policies• Outcome of some researches in the world.• Whether it is useful or not?

Some assumptions

• Children are normal goods.• The more income you have, you would like to have

more children.• The cost of raising a child is the present value of all

costs related to raise a child.• Income is the only factor that affects the decision of

raising a child.

Government expenditure part

• Child allowance or Family allowance• The government subsidize the family with children

directly.• EX. In Netherland, family with children under 17 can

get €176.62~ €380.77 per child per month.

Cash Subsidy

Non-cash Transfer

• Three different kinds of policies:• The policy of parental leave• Maternity leave for a mother, daddy leave and

parental leave.• The policy of child care• Helps parents to look after their baby through public

policies.• The policy of preschool child welfare

Non-cash Transfer

Government revenue part

• Tax benefit• The government reduce the cost of raising a child

through increasing the exemption and reduction of the tax system.

• EX. In UK, each family can get a £545 tax exemption if the income is less than £13,230.

Tax exemption

The decision process

Some experts say…

• Gauthier (2005) concludes a 25 percent increase in family allowances would result in an increase of 0.07 children per woman.

• It is difficult to assess the impact of policies on fertility

• D’Addio and D’Ercole (2005) conclude that total fertility rates are higher in countries with wider childcare availability, lower direct costs of children, higher part-time work availability and longer leaves.

• Policies aimed at achieving higher fertility at a young age may lead to a higher ultimate level of fertility.

• “What may work in one country may not work in another, because of a different social and economic context and family policies in the past.”

Conclusion

• No simple recipe, but policies are likely to have effect.

• Policies may be more successful in accommodating ongoing trends rather than in reversing trends.

Thanks for your attention!