HPC Trends for 2010: On the Rebound

Actionable Market Intelligence for High Productivity Computing

Addison Snell, addison@InterSect360.com

March 2010

“InterSect360”? •  Chris Willard and I acquired the Tabor Research

division of Tabor Communications (HPCwire) in July •  Changed the company name, not the business •  Enduring partnership with Tabor Communications

–  Exclusive market research partnership drives user-based research methodology

–  Venue for feature articles and blogs –  Weekly podcast: “HPCwire Soundbite”

•  Still able to (and anxious to) work with other excellent pubs, like insideHPC

Topics •  Top-level HPC market dynamics •  Technology areas to watch in 2010 •  Entry-level and midrange HPC expansion (the

“missing middle”) •  Where to look for growth

2009 HPC Market Model •  2009 sucked: Down 20% from $19.0B to $15.2B •  (Still finalizing model and forecast) •  BUT:

–  Most of decline was due to lengthening sales cycles –  Short-term market effects have to do with how fast

people buy, not how much –  Areas of relative strength (less loss):

•  Government •  Supercomputers •  Storage

Supercomputing: Are We There Yet? •  I agree with Mike Bernhardt

–  We’re totally there. Look what we can do! –  We’ll never be there. Look what we still need to do.

•  The difference between HPC and enterprise: –  HPC: Once you’ve designed the bridge, you don’t need

to design it again –  Enterprise: Once it works the first time, for heaven’s

sake, don’t touch it! •  This is why HPC budgets have been mostly stable

(albeit slow to approve)

Important (But Not Necessarily Disruptive) •  Technologies we’re watching in HPC in 2010:

–  Workstations –  SMPs, virtual and physical –  Windows –  Cloud / SaaS / Utility –  Infiniband –  Accelerators –  File systems

Workstations •  Remember when workstations were used for work? •  In the salad days, beefy technical workstations cost

$10K - $30K and engineers did a lot of the design workflow on them

•  Systems like Cray CX-1, SGI Octane 3, NVIDIA Tesla have the ability to fill this product gap again

•  Addresses a critical adoption problem for ELMR: Building a bridge from CAD to CAE.

SMPs •  We are seeing renewed interest in SMPs on the user

side, along with products on the vendors side •  True SMPs from [deleted] and SGI •  Virtual SMPs: ScaleMP, 3leaf, Symmetric Computing

•  “We’re going up in cores and memory but down in node count.” – Pharmaceutical HPC user

•  SMPs can also help with new HPC adoption

HPC Norms and Best Practices in Pharmaceuticals, InterSect360 Research, 2010

Windows •  We still say this is coming •  Early adoption has begun in entry-level commercial

users and certain vertical markets (e.g. finance) •  Linux continues to fragment •  Transition from Linux to Windows is harder than Unix

to Linux; it takes a while •  Is it possible that Windows could outperform Linux at

scale in two to three years?

Cloud •  First of all, take it easy. This is an evolution from grid,

utility, etc., and utility models aren’t new •  Cloud is not an application or a market in itself, but

rather an access or usage model •  Cloud: Outsourcing part of your IT infrastructure or

workflow through a web (or web-like) interface. •  Top system purchase criteria: performance, reliability •  Vendors: What does cloud mean to your products? •  Users: What are you trying to achieve? Is cloud the

right way to do it?

In Defense of ISVs •  Who here thinks they should pay more for software? •  But consider, industry trends have made things

tougher for ISVs: –  SMPs to clusters –  Unix to Linux to Windows –  Multi-core; how are the cores being used? –  Accelerators

•  Nevertheless, we see ISVs responding –  New licensing models –  SaaS

Study of SaaS Outlook Among HPC ISVs •  ISVs raise your hands. I’d like to talk to you. •  These are fundamental questions for cloud in HPC:

–  How will I run the application? –  What is the licensing model? –  Who hosts it?

•  High-level findings will be published in debut issue of “HPC in the Cloud,” coming from Tabor Communications next month

•  Many ISVs already responding to this (Altair, Exa)

Infiniband as a System Interconnect

InterSect360 Research HPC User Site Census: Interconnects

Infiniband as Storage Interconnect

InterSect360 Research HPC User Site Census: Storage

Accelerators •  GPUs getting most of the attention, but FPGAs still

have compelling value in some areas •  Where they’re good:

–  GPUs excel at ELMR, floating-point intense –  FPGAs excel at high end, text and integer intense

•  Addressing the programming hurdle –  GPUs: CUDA –  FPGAs: embedded in architectures (e.g. Convey,

XtremeData, BlueArc) •  Rising tide floats both boats (for now)

Challenges for Accelerators •  Overcoming latency hit •  Programmability (still) •  Maintaining pace of development •  I had been anticipating an entertaining war between

Intel Larrabee and NVIDIA, but …

File Systems in HPC •  This has been a highly fragmented market •  An early Tabor Research study found 17 different file

systems installed at only 38 sites. (Quick, name 12.) •  The emergence of clustered, parallel file systems

provides touchpoints for continued consolidation: –  GPFS –  Lustre –  pNFS

Clustered File Systems in HPC •  Lustre has most mentions in InterSect360 Research

Site Census report –  Followed by GPFS –  Lustre well-aligned with academic sector

•  Share of licensing revenue is probably approximately even between Lustre and GPFS

•  Panasas (PanFS) currently in third position for parallel, clustered file systems

•  EMC has strong market position, but EMC MPFS is not a true parallel, clustered file system competitor

pNFS Emergence •  Still very early in pNFS adoption. We have seen it in

a select few installations, but really it’s still in beta. •  Some of the previously dominant voices in favor of

pNFS have gotten quieter. •  NetApp, a primary proponent of pNFS, has decided

not to focus on the HPC market •  Panasas and BlueArc are positioned to carry it

forward

Lustre •  Strong presence in market, but now defocused:

–  Sun bought CFS and “owned” Lustre, but Lustre talent left and Sun focused storage strategy on QFS

–  Oracle seems to take Sun even further from Lustre, and away from HPC

•  There will continue to be open source groups and development, but without much corporate focus

•  Cray is aligned with Lustre, and ORNL is a center of excellence

HP / IBRIX •  IBRIX had little to no presence in HPC prior to

acquisition. •  IBRIX, like Polyserve, gives HP datacenter options

that are relevant from a facilities standpoint.

GPFS •  GPFS gives IBM HPC a credible, meaningful

competitive advantage in many situations •  IBM has more advantage before pNFS is established •  IBM could make a bold move with GPFS

immediately, while they have file system leadership •  But to what extent can they push GPFS

independently? Most users want their storage software to come with their storage hardware.

•  Partnership with DataDirect increases presence.

One More Thought on File Systems: Tape •  Tape: The Storage You Don’t Think About •  “WORN”: Write Once, Read Never •  Data is getting not lost, only forgotten •  Ability to put a file system on tape creates a potential

market for “active archives” •  Dr. Goh mention active archives at NASA at 9:48

a.m. today!

The “Missing Middle” •  We have extensively

studied the entry-level and midrange (ELMR) segments

•  Not as big as first appears: –  50% of revenue, but: –  About two-thirds of ELMR

shipments are upgrades or additions1

–  20-25% of ELMR systems are bought by users that also have larger systems2

Revenue share by product class InterSect360 Research, 2010

Only 10% to 15% of system revenue

goes to true ELMR users

1 InterSect360 Research HPC User Site Census: Lifecycles 2 Custom study: Entry-level and Midrange, 2008

Midrange, Entry, and Sub-Entry

n = 95

Some Sub-entry users consider themselves HPC, whereas some Midrange users do not.

n = 95

InterSect360 Research (as Tabor Research), 2008

Size of Company

About one-quarter of respondents come from large organizations; about half of these also purchase high-

end HPC systems.

Not “HPC,” but “R&D”

1.  “R&D leadership” is a better overall message than “HPC.” 2.  Especially among commercial users. 3.  And it correlates with actual HPC adoption. 4.  But it’s not everybody. And that’s good.

Satisfaction Gaps: Purchase Criteria

Satisfaction Gaps: TCO Metrics

Not Just the Hardware and Software •  Imagine a sub-entry user with a clear case for HPC,

and you gave them FREE hardware and software –  What data will they use? –  How will they test their models? –  Do they have the organizational will to change their

product design workflow? •  It takes years to successfully integrate HPC into a

workflow, and it tends to grow organically within companies

Examples from a Mature Vertical: Pharma •  “We have four different research centers – different therapeutic areas –

each with its own HPC. There is collaboration at the research level – we share best practices – but the execution is independent. The different sites have different histories and cultural expertise.”

•  “We have many sites using their own clusters. The problems start when licenses are shared for everyone, like when a user in one location cannot run his job because the licenses are being used by someone in another location who started his job days ago.”

•  “There are dedicated HPC clusters for some groups, dedicated to doing analysis from sequencers or other instruments. If a groups has a specialized 24/7 need for HPC, they build their own clusters. There aren’t a lot of these, maybe half a dozen. One reason is problems with large data transfer. Some groups want to sit next to their own data.”

“HPC Norms and Best Practices in the Pharmaceutical Industry,” InterSect360 Research, 2010

If I Were the King •  I’d build a program to link university engineering

courses with local companies: –  Creation of that scalable digital models of companies’

products is part of the coursework –  Students must test the models; corroborate data –  Start on multi-core PCs; scalable resources via “grid” –  Coursework includes a subsidized internship –  Companies get to use the results –  Creates a talent pool. Give a bonus to students who go

to work for those companies full time after school.

Where to Look for Growth •  Much of the “Missing Middle” discussion centers on

engineering and supply chains. Consider inclusive looks at “engineering”: –  Consumer product manufacturing. (Where is R&D

leadership critical?) –  Chemical engineering –  Bio-engineering –  Agri-engineering –  Engineering services

Expanding Our Community •  InterSect360 Research is forming a Modeling and

Simulation Leadership Panel –  A worldwide panel of organizations using

computational modeling, simulation, and analytics to advance their leadership positions in engineering development and scientific research.

–  Build sense of community –  Provides access to analyst research, peer expertise –  Interested? Contact me or Mike Bernhardt

Conclusions and Free Marketing Advice •  HPC, at all levels, is about leadership •  Do not think of entry-level users as small: To them

this is the biggest system they’ve ever bought •  A supercomputer without an application is an

expensive space heater •  An application without data is only a nice theory •  How do your users (not only supercomputing level)

exemplify leadership?

Actionable Market Intelligence for High Productivity Computing