huongdan-baitaptchinh

8/3/2019 Huongdan-BaitapTchinh

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Scenario Summary

Current Values: Capacity1 Capacity2 Capacity3Changing Cells:

$B$373 1 1 2 3Result Cells:

NPV1 0.89 0.89 -3.74 -9.01NPV2 -4.36 -4.36 -8.51 -13.69

Notes: Current Values column represents values of changing cells at

time Scenario Summary Report was created. Changing cells for each

scenario are highlighted in gray.


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Scenario Summary

Current Values: scenario1 scenario2 scenario3Changing Cells:

Scenario 1 1 2 3Result Cells:

0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.001 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.002 3.77 3.77 3.85 4.01

3 3.97 3.97 4.05 4.23

4 4.18 4.18 4.28 4.47

5 4.42 4.42 4.53 4.74

6 4.68 4.68 4.80 5.04

7 4.39 4.39 4.52 4.79

8 4.71 4.71 4.86 5.159 5.07 5.07 5.23 5.55NPVE -10.51 -10.51 -12.56 -16.66





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Scenario Summary

Current Values: scenario1 scenario2 scenario3Changing Cells:

Scenario 1 1 2 3Result Cells:

$E$509 4.75 4.75 4.31 3.43$F$509 2.53 2.53 2.08 1.20$G$509 8.07 8.07 7.62 6.74

$H$509 9.85 9.85 9.41 8.52

$I$509 11.53 11.53 11.08 10.18

$J$509 15.05 15.05 14.60 13.70

$K$509 16.36 16.36 15.91 15.01$L$509 17.62 17.62 17.16 16.25





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Question 1

Bng phn tch tham s Vn hot ngKh nng sx ca DA Khon phi thuS cy (000)/hectare 80.00 Khon phi tr

S lng cnh trn cy 30.00 Tin mtS hectare trng 4.50Kh nng c th thit lp 9.50 Triu cnh trn nmYu t 1.00

Nm 0 1 2 3 4 5 6Kh nng khai thc 0% 0% 70% 75% 95% 95% 95%

Gi Ngoi t Ni t Ti trGi bn/cnh (nm 0) 0.2 4200.00 Ti tr n

Chi ph n v ca cy (nm 0) 0.12 2520.00 Withdrawal (in million Rs)Worl Bank

Chnh ph

u vo Li sut thc trn nmNguyn vt liu (nm 2) 500.00 triu VND S nm tr

Tng hng nm ca nguyn vt liu 2.0%

Nhin liu - Nng lng 300.0 Triu VND mi nm (nm 2 n nm 9) Khu hao

Xy Lng 500.00 Triu Rs nm 2 Thi gian khu hao

Tc tng lng hng nm 0.5% Thi gian hot ng d n

Nguyn vt liu ng gi 2% doanh thu

Chi ph bn hng 10% doanh thu

Chi ph qun l 7% doanh thu

Chi ph sa cha v bo tr 5%

bng % ca chi ph xy dng v thit lp v thit b dng c

Chi ph c hi ca ngi ch 200 Triu RS t nm 0 n nm 10

Tng hng nm 0.50% trn nmChi ph u tDin tch t 10 hectares Chi ph ca vn

Chi ph 150 triu/ha Li tc ca vn ch

WACC

Li tc kinh t

(Real figure, million) Year 0 Year 1 Year 0 Year 1 Total Lm pht ni a

Xy dng v thit lp 2,600.0 3,000.00 5,600.00 Lm pht nc ngoi

Thit b, dng c (nhp khu) 1.00 0.00 22,000.00 22,000.00 T gi hi oi


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Chi ph vn vn 250.00 1,500.00 1,750.00

nh hng lm pht v t gi hi oi n DA Lm pht ni a 10.00% T sut chit khu thc (WACC) 12.00%

Lm pht nc ngoi 5.00% T sut chit khu thc (Ke) 15%

Li sut thc 10.00% T sut chit khu thc (Kinh t) 20%

Li sut thc (chnh ph) 5.00% Li sut danh ngha (iu chnh theo lm pht nc ngoi)

Li sut thc (bank) 10.00% Li sut danh ngha (Chnh ph)

Li sut danh ngha NH (iu chnh theo lm pht ni a)

- Real Exchange Rate (VND/F$) 21,000 decrease 0% Sut chit khu danh ngha (WACC)

Increase 0% Sut chit khu danh ngha (Ke)

Sut chit khu danh ngha (Economic)

-T gi hi oi thc (D$/F$) (T/hp gim) 21,000 21,000 21,000 21,000.0 21,000.0 21,000 21,000

- T gi hi oi thc (D$/F$) (T/hp tng) 21,000 21,000 21,000 21,000.0 21,000.0 21,000 21,000 Nm 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

- Ch s gi ni a 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 2 2

- Ch s gi nc ngoi 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1 1

- Ch s gi tng i 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1 1

-T gi hi oi danh ngha (t/hp gim) 21,000 22,000 23,048 24,145.1 25,294.9 26,499 27,761

- T gi hi oi danh ngha (t/hp tng) 21,000 22,000 23,048 24,145.1 25,294.9 26,499 27,761

- T gi hi oi danh ngha 21,000 22,000 23,048 24,145.1 25,294.9 26,499 27,761

Cu hi 2

1. Lch trnh tr nTr Ngn Hng0 1 2 3 4 5 6

S d n u nm 2000.00 3410.00 3938.55 3494.26 2981.12 2388.43Li 310.00 528.55 610.48 541.61 462.07 370.21

Tr n 0.00 0.00 1054.76 1054.76 1054.76 1054.76- N gc 0.00 0.00 444.2854 513.15 592.69 684.55- Li 0.00 0.00 610.4753 541.61 462.07 370.21

N tng thm 1100.00

S d n cui nm 2000.00 3410.00 3938.55 3494.26 2981.12 2388.4 1703.87

Tr n World Bank0 1 2 3 4 5 6

S d n u nm 0.00 2200.00 2662.00 2462.17 2220.38 1927.81Li 0.00 462.00 559.02 517.06 466.28 404.84

Tr n 0.00 0.00 758.85 758.85 758.85 758.85 7- N gc 0.00 0.00 199.83 241.79 292.57 354.01- Li 0.00 0.00 559.02 517.06 466.28 404.84

N tng thm 2000.00


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A B C D E F G H I

- t 0.00 0.00 1500 1500.00- Chi ph xy dng 2600.00 3000.00 5600.00 2600.00 3,000.00 5600.00- Thit b, dng c 0.00 34000.00 34000.00 0.00 34,000.00 34,000.00- Thit b, dng c khc 0.00 3000.00 3000.00 0.00 3,000.00 3,000.00

.-Chi ph khc 5500.00 11400.00 16900.00 5500.00 11400.00 16900.00

- Cy ging 997.92 997.92 907.20 907.20Tng (nh hng ca lm pht) 8100.00 52397.92 60497.92 9600 52307.2 61907.2

3.1 Khu hao

Xy dng 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Gi tr ban u 5600.00 5600.00 5600.00 5600.00 5600.00 5600.00

Khu hao 373.33 373.33 373.33 373.33 373.33 373.33

Khu hao tch lu 373.33 746.67 1120.00 1493.33 1866.67 2240.00

Gi tr cn li 5226.67 4853.33 4480.00 4106.67 3733.33 3360.00

u t tng thm3.2 Khu hao

Thit b, dng c 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7Gi tr ban u 34000.00 34000.00 34000.00 34000.00 34000.00 34000.00Khu hao 3400.00 3400.00 3400.00 3400.00 3400.00 3400.00Khu hao tch lu 3400.00 6800.00 10200.00 13600.00 17000.00 20400.00Gi tr cn li 30600.00 27200.00 23800.00 20400.00 17000.00 13600.00u t tng thm3.3 Khu hao

Thit b, dng c khc 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Gi tr ban u 3000.00 3000.00 3000.00 3000.00 3000.00 3000.00Khu hao 750.00 750.00 750.00 750.00 750.00 750.00Khu hao tch lu 750.00 1500.00 2250.00 3000.00 3750.00 750.00Gi tr cn li 2250.00 1500.00 750.00 0.00 -750.00 2250.00u t tng thm 17.723.4 Khu hao

Chi ph khc 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Gi tr ban u 16900.00 16900.00 16900.00 16900.00 16900.00Khu hao 4225.00 4225.00 4225.00 4225.00 4225.00Khu hao tch lu 4225.00 8450.00 12675.00 16900.00 21125.00

Gi tr cn li 12675.00 8450.00 4225.00 0.00 -4225.00u t tng thm3.5 Khu hao

Ging cy trng 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7Gi tr ban u 997.92 997.92 997.92 997.92 997.92 997.92Khu hao 249.48 249.48 249.48 249.48 249.48 249.48Khu hao tch lu 249.48 498.96 748.44 997.92 249.48 498.96Gi tr cn li 748.44 498.96 249.48 0.00 748.44 498.96u t tng thm 1461.05

P 7


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A B C D E F G H I

3.6 Tng khu haoCapital Equipment 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Gi tr ban u 60497.92 60497.92 60497.92 60497.92 60497.92 43597.92Khu hao 8997.81 8997.81 8997.81 8997.81 8997.81 4772.81

Khu hao tch lu 8997.81 17995.63 26993.44 35991.25 43991.15 23888.96Gi tr cn li 51500.11 42502.29 33504.48 24506.67 16506.77 19708.96u t tng thm 0.00 0.00 0.00 1461.05 17.72 0.00

4. c lng doanh thu0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

S lng sn xut 7.56 8.10 10.26 10.26 10.26 10.26S lng bn 7.56 8.10 10.26 10.26 10.26 10.26Gi bn/n v 5082.00 5590.20 6149.22 6764.14 7440.56 8184.61

Doanh s 38419.92 45280.62 63091.00 69400.10 76340.11 83974.12

5. Chi ph ca sn xut0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

- Nguyn vt liu 605.00 678.81 761.62 854.54 958.80 1075.77- Nng lng-nhin liu 363.00 399.30 439.23 483.15 531.47 584.62

Lng 605.00 668.83 739.39 817.39 903.63 998.96Chi ph sa cha v bo tr 2395.80 2635.38 2898.92 3188.81 3507.69 3858.46Tng chi ph trc tip 3968.80 4382.32 4839.16 5343.90 5901.59 6517.81

Nguyn vt liu ng gi 768.40 905.61 1261.82 1388.00 1526.80 1679.48Chi ph bn hng 3841.99 4528.06 6309.10 6940.01 7634.01 8397.41

Chi ph qun l 2689.39 3169.64 4416.37 4858.01 5343.81 5878.19Tong chi ph gin tip 7299.78 8603.32 11987.29 13186.02 14504.62 15955.08Tng chi ph 11268.58 12985.64 16826.45 18529.92 20406.21 22472.89

6. Vn hot ng0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Tin mt (CB) 1152.60 1358.42 1892.73 2082.00 2290.20 2519.22Khon phi thu (AR) 1921.00 2264.03 3154.55 3470.00 3817.01 4198.71

Khon phi tr (AP) 114.40 131.98 168.55 186.80 207.05 229.51Vn khon ng 2959.19 3490.47 4878.73 5365.20 5900.16 6488.42Thay i trong tin mt CB 1152.60 205.82 534.31 189.27 208.20 229.02Thay i trong khon phi thu AR 1921.00 343.04 890.52 315.45 347.00 381.70Thay i trong khon phi tr AP 114.40 17.58 36.57 18.25 20.25 22.46Thay i trong vn hot ng 2959.19 531.28 1388.26 486.48 534.95 588.26

7. c lng li nhun

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Doanh thu 38419.92 45280.62 63091.00 69400.10 76340.11 83974.12

gia von hang ban (chi ph trc tip + khu hao) 12966.61 13380.13 13836.97 14341.71 14899.40 11290.62Li nhun gp 25453.31 31900.49 49254.02 55058.38 61440.71 72683.50Chi ph bn hng (chi ph NL ng gi+cph bhng) 4610.39 5433.67 7570.92 8328.01 9160.81 10076.89Chi ph qun l 2689.39 3169.64 4416.37 4858.01 5343.81 5878.19

EBIT 18153.52 23297.17 37266.73 41872.37 46936.09 56728.41Tr li 1,169.50 1,058.67 928.35 775.05 594.60EBT 18153.5 22127.68 36208.07 40944.0 46161.0 56133.8

Thu thu nhp doanh nghip 0 0 4538.4 5531.92 9052.02 10236.0 11540.3 14033.5Li nhun sau thu 0 0 13615.1 16595.76 27156.05 30708.0 34620.8 42100.4

Question 3 Xy dng dng tin ti chnh Chu y tinh the suat chiet khau danh nghia, dieu chinh gia tri con lai

Dng tin CASH FLOW (Quan im tng u t) Ngn hng v nh u t xem nh ng s hu0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7Dng vo 0.00 0.00 36498.92 44937.59 62200.48 69084.64 75993.11 83592.42

- Doanh thu 38419.92 45280.62 63091.00 69400.10 76340.11 83974.12

- Thay i khon phi thuAR (-) -1921.00 -343.04 -890.52 -315.45 -347.00 -381.70Gi tr cn li ca ti sn

Xy dngCng c, dng c

Dng c khc

Chi ph khcGing cy trng- Gi tr cn li ca t ai

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A B C D E F G H I

Dng ra 8300.00 52619.02 12551.20 13444.09 17622.91 20492.23 20976.95 23083.04

- Chi ph u t 8100.00 52397.92 1461.05 17.72- Chi ph trc tip 3968.80 4382.32 4839.16 5343.90 5901.59 6517.81- Nguyn liu ng gi 768.40 905.61 1261.82 1388.00 1526.80 1679.48- Chi ph bn hng 3841.99 4528.06 6309.10 6940.01 7634.01 8397.41

- Chi ph qun l 2689.39 3169.64 4416.37 4858.01 5343.81 5878.19- Thay i khon phi tr AP (-) -114.40 -17.58 -36.57 -18.25 -20.25 -22.46- Thay i tin mt CB (+) 1152.60 205.82 534.31 189.27 208.20 229.02- Chi ph c hi ca ngi ch 200.000 221.100 244.426 270.213 298.720 330.235 365.075 403.591

Dng tin rng trc thu -8300.0 -52619 23947.7 31493.49 44577.57 48592.4 55016.2 60509.4Thu thu nhp 4538.38 5531.92 9052.02 10236.00 11540.26 14033.45Dng tin rng sau thu -8300.0 -52619 19409.3 25961.57 35525.55 38356.4 43475.9 46475.9Dng tin thc -8300.0 -47835 16040.8 19505.32 24264.43 23816.3 24541.0 23849.5Tnh IRR & NPV

- Dng tin danh ngha IRR1 = 45.5% NPV1 = 49488.48- Dng tin thc IRR1 = 32.3% NPV1 = 49488.48

Question 4 Dng tin (quan im ch s hu)CASH FLOW (Total Owner's point of view) Loan from bank and govern0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Dng vo 2000.00 3300.00 36498.92 44937.59 62200.48 69084.64 75993.11 83592.42- Doanh thu 0.00 0.00 38419.92 45280.62 63091.00 69400.10 76340.11 83974.12

- Thay i khon phi thuAR (-) -1921.00 -343.04 -890.52 -315.45 -347.00 -381.70

Gi tr cn li ca ti sn Xy dngCng c, dng c

Dng c khcChi ph khc

Ging cy trng- Gi tr cn li ca t ai- Vay 2000.00 3300.00

Dng ra 8300.00 52619.02 12551.20 15257.70 19436.52 22305.84 22790.56 24896.65- Chi ph u t 8100.00 52397.92 1461.05 17.72

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A B C D E F G H I

- Chi ph trc tip 3968.80 4382.32 4839.16 5343.90 5901.59 6517.81- Nguyn liu ng gi 768.40 905.61 1261.82 1388.00 1526.80 1679.48- Chi ph bn hng 3841.99 4528.06 6309.10 6940.01 7634.01 8397.41

- Chi ph qun l 2689.39 3169.64 4416.37 4858.01 5343.81 5878.19- Thay i khon phi tr AP (-) -114.40 -17.58 -36.57 -18.25 -20.25 -22.46

- Thay i tin mt CB (+)1152.60 205.82 534.31 189.27 208.20 229.02

- H tr nhin liu 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00- Chi ph c hi ch s hu 200.000 221.100 244.426 270.213 298.720 330.235 365.075 403.591- Tr li v n 1813.61 1813.61 1813.61 1813.61 1813.61Dng tin rng trc thu -6300.0 -49319.0 23947.7 29679.9 42764.0 46778.8 53202.5 58695.8Thu thu nhp 4538.4 5531.9 9052.0 10236.0 11540.3 14033.5Dng tin rng sau thu -6300.0 -49319.0 19409.3 24148.0 33711.9 36542.8 41662.3 44662.3Dng tin thc -6300.0 -44835.5 16040.8 18142.7 23025.7 22690.2 23517.3 22918.8* only materials'inventory and semi-final product

Tnh IRR & NPV- Dng tin danh ngha IRR2 = 48% NPV2 = 38845.02- Dng tin thc IRR2 = 35% NPV2 = 38845.02

Question 5 Dng tin (quan im kinh t) Cash Flow (Economic's view of point (Valued at Economic Prices)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Dng vo 0.00 0.00 36498.92 44937.59 62200.48 69084.64 75993.11 83592.42- Doanh thu 38419.92 45280.62 63091.00 69400.10 76340.11 83974.12

- Thay i khon phi thuAR (-) -1921.00 -343.04 -890.52 -315.45 -347.00 -381.70Gi tr cn li ca ti snXy dng

Cng c, dng cDng c khcChi ph khc

Ging cy trng- Gi tr cn li ca t ai

Dng ra 8302.70 52619.02 12551.20 13444.09 17622.91 20492.23 20976.95 23083.04

- Chi ph u t 8102.70 52397.92 1461.05 17.72

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A B C D E F G H I

- Chi ph trc tip 3968.80 4382.32 4839.16 5343.90 5901.59 6517.81- Nguyn liu ng gi 768.40 905.61 1261.82 1388.00 1526.80 1679.48- Chi ph bn hng 3841.99 4528.06 6309.10 6940.01 7634.01 8397.41

- Chi ph qun l 2689.39 3169.64 4416.37 4858.01 5343.81 5878.19- H tr nhin liu 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

- Chi ph c hi ch s hu200.000 221.100 244.426 270.213 298.720 330.235 365.075 403.591

- Thay i khon phi tr AP (-) -114.40 -17.58 -36.57 -18.25 -20.25 -22.46- Thay i tin mt CB (+) 1152.60 205.82 534.31 189.27 208.20 229.02Dng tin rng -8302.70 ####### 23947.72 31493.49 44577.57 48592.41 55016.16 60509.38Dng tin thc -8302.70 ####### 19791.50 23661.53 30447.08 30172.06 31055.19 31050.88Tnh IRR & NPV danh ngha Tnh thc

IRR3 = 54.875% NPV3 = 40,156.93 million Rs IRR3 = 40.795%

Question 6 Dng tin (quan im ngn sch) CASH FLOW (BUDGET POINT OF VIEW)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7Dng vo 0.000 0.000 4538.380 6586.680 10106.777 11290.764 12595.021 15088.214

- Thu 4538.380 5531.919 9052.016 10236.003 11540.260 14033.454- Nhn t li v vn gc 1054.761 1054.761 1054.761 1054.761 1054.761

Dng ra 3500.000 1100.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

- H tr t ai 1500.000- H tr v nhin liu 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000- Cho vay ca chnh ph 2000.000 1100.000

Dng tin rng -3500.000 0.000 4538.380 5531.919 9052.016 10236.003 11540.260 14033.454Nu chnh ph s hu t ai thay vic mua. iu ny dng tin s thay i.Dng tin (quan im ngn sch) CASH FLOW (BUDGET POINT OF VIEW)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Dng vo 0.000 0.000 4538.380 6586.680 10106.777 11290.764 12595.021 15088.214

-Thu 4538.380 5531.919 9052.016 10236.003 11540.260 14033.454- Nhn t li v vn gc 1054.761 1054.761 1054.761 1054.761 1054.761

- Nhn t s hu t ai 0.000

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Dng ra 3500.000 1100.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

- Cho vay ca chnh ph 2000.000 1100.000- H tr v nhin liu 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000- H tr t ai 1500.000

Dng tin rng -3500.000 -1100.000 4538.380 6586.680 10106.777 11290.764 12595.021 15088.214

Question 7ABCL is concerned that the project benefit may be sensitive to a) selling price of rose stems b) unit price of plant c) percent of selling expenses to sales revenues and

d) capacity utilization. Conduct a sensitive analysis with one variable to determine the effect of each of these parameters on the net present value of

the project from the ABCL's perpective.

Selling price of rose stems

Price $ Price Rs NPV1 NPV2 NPV3 Change Price $ Price Rs

######### 38845.02 40,156.93

0.18 ####### 39077.89 29765.51 30295.62 0.238 4998

0.19 ####### 44283.19 34305.27 35226.27 30% 0.3094 6497.4

0.20 ####### 49488.48 38845.02 40156.93 -40% 0.1428 2998.8

0.21 ####### 54693.78 43384.77 45087.59 100% 0.476 9996

0.22 ####### 59899.08 47924.53 50018.25 7% 0.25466 5347.86

0.23 ####### 65104.38 52464.28 54948.90

0.24 ####### 70309.67 57004.03 59879.56

Percent of selling expenses to sales revenueNPV1 NPV2 NPV3 Factor

######### 38,845.02 40,156.93 70%

6.00% 54757.46 43453.20 45143.63 80%

8.00% 52122.97 41149.11 42650.28 90%

10.00% 49488.48 38845.02 40156.93 100%

12.00% 46854.00 36540.93 37663.58 130%

14.00% 44219.51 34236.84 35170.23 140%

16.00% 41585.02 31932.74 32676.89 150%

18.00% 38950.53 29628.65 30183.54 170%

20.00% 36316.05 27324.56 27690.19 200%

22.00% 33681.56 25020.47 25196.8424.00% 31047.07 22716.38 22703.49

Percent of sale

C

Capacity utilization

Unit pri

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A B C D E F G H I

Part B : Sensitivity and scenarios analysis

1. Construct a scenario analysis of the NPV (Total investment point of view and Equity point of view) for three scenarios of

capacity ultilization (given in page 1)

Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6Capacity 1 0% 0% 70% 80% 90% 90% 90%

Capacity 2 0% 0% 70% 80% 90% 90% 90%

Capacity 3 0% 0% 60% 70% 85% 90% 90%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Capacity 1 0% 0% 70% 80% 90% 90% 90%

NPV1 (Total investment point of view) 49488.48NPV2 (Equity point of view) 38845.02

Scenario Summary

Current Values: Capacity1 Capacity2 Capacity3

Changing Cells:

$B$373 1 1 2 3

Result Cells:

NPV1 0.89 0.89 -3.74 -9.01NPV2 -4.36 -4.36 -8.51 -13.69




2. Construct a sensitivity of the NPV (equity point of view) with the inflation rate. Is there a positive or negative relationship

between the NPV and the inflation rate . Why? Briefly explain your answer.

- There is a negative relationship between the NPV NPV2 (Equity point of view)

and the inflation. Change 38845.02

- Because inflation increase outflow to finance 10% 10.00% 38845.02

cash balance of project. Detail per year 11.00% 38845.02

- Inflow (Increase) 12.10% 38845.02

+ Revenue 13.31% 38845.02

Inflation rate

Inflation affects to NP

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A B C D E F G H I

+ Account payment 14.64% 38845.02

+ Scrapped assets and Land 16.11% 38845.02

- Outflow (Increase) 17.72% 38845.02

+ Investment cost 19.49% 38845.02

+ Direct & indirect cost 21.44% 38845.02

+ Account Receivable & cash balance 23.58% 38845.02

+ Opportunity cost 25.94% 38845.02

Problem The increasing of inflow is not offset 28.53% 38845.02

the increasing of outlow lead to NPV reduce

when the inflation increased.

Question 3

Construtct a sensitivity analysis of the present value (PV) of each line item of the real cash flow from the equity point of view versus the inflation rate.

Verify that the impacts of inflation indicated by the sensitivity analysis are valid. Briefly discuss the impacts of inflation on the NPV of the project.

Real cash flow from the equity point of view of each line item.

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7Inflows

Revenue 0.00 0.00 31,752.00 34,020.00 43,092.00 43,092.00 43,092.00 43,092.00

NPVr = 153,606.13

Impact of AR on CF 0.00 0.00 -1,587.60 -257.73 -608.24 -195.87 -195.87 -195.87

NPVar = -1,608.92

Impact of scrapped assets and land 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

NPVscra $2,027.65

Loan ######## ####### 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

NPV(loan)= 4,608.70

Ouflow

Investment cost ######## 47634.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 907.20 10.00 0.00NPVicost = 49,976.64

Direct cost 0.00 0.00 3280.00 3292.50 3305.21 3318.14 3331.29 3344.67

NPVdcost = 12938.47

Indirect cost 0.00 0.00 6032.88 6463.80 8187.48 8187.48 8187.48 8187.48

NPVidcost = 29185.17

Impact AP 0.00 0.00 -94.55 -13.21 -24.98 -11.33 -11.43 -11.53

NPVap = -89.62

Impact of cash balance on CF 0.00 0.00 952.56 154.64 364.94 117.52 117.52 117.52

NPVcb = 965.35

Impact of subsidy 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

NPVsub = 0.00

Impact of opportunity cost 200.000 201.000 202.005 203.015 204.030 205.050 206.076 207.106

NPVop = 1226.03

Impact of debt interest 0.00 0.00 0.00 1362.59 1238.72 1126.11 1023.74 930.67

NPVd&I = 3324.57

Infaltion rate 10% 11.00% 12.10% 13.31% 14.64% 16.11% 17.72%

Inflow NPVr = ######## ######## 153606.13 153606.13 153606.13 153606.13 153606.13 153606.13

0.00

10000.00

20000.00

30000.00

40000.00

.

0.00 % 5 .00% 10.0 0% 1 5. 00% 2 0.0

NPV2

Inflation

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A B C D E F G H I

NPVar = ######### -1608.92 -1608.92 -1608.92 -1608.92 -1608.92 -1608.92 -1608.92

NPVscra ######## 2027.65 2027.65 2027.65 2027.65 2027.65 2027.65 2027.65

NPV(loan)= ######## 4608.70 4608.70 4608.70 4608.70 4608.70 4608.70 4608.70

Outflow NPVicost = ######## 49976.64 49976.64 49976.64 49976.64 49976.64 49976.64 49976.64

NPVdcost = ######## 12938.47 12938.47 12938.47 12938.47 12938.47 12938.47 12938.47

NPVidcost = ######## 29185.17 29185.17 29185.17 29185.17 29185.17 29185.17 29185.17

NPVap = 89.62- -89.62 -89.62 -89.62 -89.62 -89.62 -89.62 -89.62

NPVcb = 965.35 965.35 965.35 965.35 965.35 965.35 965.35 965.35

NPVsub = - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

NPVop = ######## 1226.03 1226.03 1226.03 1226.03 1226.03 1226.03 1226.03

NPVd&I = ######## 3324.57 3324.57 3324.57 3324.57 3324.57 3324.57 3324.57

Conclusion

- Inflation rate doesn't affect to NPV of project in revenue, loan,investment cost, indirect cost, opportunity cost and subsidy

- Inflation rate affects to NPV of project in account receivable (negative), scrapped value (negative),

direct cost (negative), account payable (positive), cash balance (negative), debt & loan (negative).

Question 4Construct a sensitivity analysis on the NPV (equity point of view) and the (real) net income profile with the following variables:

a. selling price of rose sterms 2 3 4 5 6 7

b. unit price of plant Real net income 11,252.18 12,468.64 18,547.95 19,067.26 19,542.53 21,604.14

c. percent of selling expenses to sales revenue

d. the unit cost of producing one rose stem

Selling price of rose stems

Price $ Price Rs NPV2 Real net income

2 3 4 5 6

######### 11,252.18 12,468.64 18,547.95 19,067.26 19,542.53

0.18 ####### 29765.51 9323.25 10401.92 15930.11 16449.42 16924.69

0.19 ####### 34305.27 10287.72 11435.28 17239.03 17758.34 18233.610.20 ####### 38845.02 11252.18 12468.64 18547.95 19067.26 19542.53

0.21 ####### 43384.77 12216.65 13502.00 19856.87 20376.18 20851.45

0.22 ####### 47924.53 13181.12 14535.35 21165.79 21685.10 22160.37

0.23 ####### 52464.28 14145.58 15568.71 22474.71 22994.02 23469.29

0.24 ####### 57004.03 15110.05 16602.07 23783.63 24302.94 24778.21

Unit price of plant

Change Price Rs NPV2 Real net income

2 3 4 5 6

38845.02 11,252.18 12,468.64 18,547.95 19,067.26 19,542.53

7.14 39924.18 11406.38 12608.82 18675.38 19183.11 19647.8530% 9.282 39923.26 11406.25 12608.70 18675.27 19183.01 19647.76

50% 10.710 39922.65 11406.16 12608.62 18675.20 19182.94 19647.70

60% 11.424 39922.34 11406.12 12608.58 18675.17 19182.91 19647.67

80% 12.852 39921.73 11406.03 12608.50 18675.09 19182.85 19647.61

Unit price of plant

NPV2 Real net incomePercent of sale

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A B C D E F G H I

2 3 4 5 6

38845.02 11,252.18 12,468.64 18,547.95 19,067.26 19,542.53

6% 43453.20 12204.74 13489.24 19840.71 20360.02 20835.29

8.00% 41149.11 11728.46 12978.94 19194.33 19713.64 20188.91

10.00% 38845.02 11252.18 12468.64 18547.95 19067.26 19542.53

12.00% 36540.93 10775.90 11958.34 17901.57 18420.88 18896.15

14.00% 34236.84 10299.62 11448.04 17255.19 17774.50 18249.77

16.00% 31932.74 9823.34 10937.74 16608.81 17128.12 17603.39

18.00% 29628.65 9347.06 10427.44 15962.43 16481.74 16957.01

The unit cost of producing one rose stem = (cost of sales goods/(number of plant*number of stem*number of hectares planted))*1000

The factor 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

1.00 1,200.61 1,238.90 1,281.20 1,327.94 1,379.57

The unit cost of producing one rose stem = 0.00 0.00 1200.61 1238.90 1281.20 1327.94 1379.57

1.15 0.00 0.00 1233.89 1275.50 1321.46 1372.23 1428.29

Assumption 1.20 0.00 0.00 1244.98 1287.70 1334.89 1386.99 1444.53

- number of plant 1.30 0.00 0.00 1267.16 1312.11 1361.73 1416.51 1477.01- number of stem f producing one rose stem

- number of hectares planted Change of factor NPV2 Real net income

are constant 2 3 4 5 6

38845.02 11,252.18 12,468.64 18,547.95 19,067.26 19,542.53

1.15 37975.85 11029.43 12245.89 18325.20 18844.51 19319.78

1.2 37686.12 10955.18 12171.64 18250.95 18770.26 19245.53

1.3 37106.67 10806.68 12023.14 18102.45 18621.76 19097.03

Scenario (click to change scenario-1,2,3-) 0 1 2 3 4 5 62 1.20 0.00 0.00 1244.98 1287.70 1334.89 1386.99 1444.53

37686.12 10955.18 12171.64 18250.95 18770.26 19245.53

Scenario Summary

Current Values: scenario1 scenario2 scenario3 scenario1

Changing Cells:Unit cost of producing rose stem

Scenario 1 1 2 3 1

Year

0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2 3.77 3.77 3.85 4.01 4.75

3 3.97 3.97 4.05 4.23 2.53

4 4.18 4.18 4.28 4.47 8.075 4.42 4.42 4.53 4.74 9.85

6 4.68 4.68 4.80 5.04 11.53

7 4.39 4.39 4.52 4.79 15.05

8 4.71 4.71 4.86 5.15 16.369 5.07 5.07 5.23 5.55 17.62

NPVE -10.51 -10.51 -12.56 -16.66

R

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A B C D E F G H I




Question 5

What is the present value (PV) of the tax payment?

NPV = 22261.92 million Rs

What is the impact of inflation on the real tax payments and the net income?

Real tax payment 0.00 0.00 3750.73 4156.21 6182.65 6355.75 6514.18 7201.38

Real net income 0.00 0.00 11252.18 12468.64 18547.95 19067.26 19542.53 21604.14

NPV (tax) = 22261.92

NPV (the net income) = $66,785.77

Impact of inflation

Inflation NPV (tax) NPV (the net icome)

Change 22261.92 $66,785.77

2.00% 10.00% 22261.92 66785.77

per year 12.00% 22261.92 66785.7714.00% 22261.92 66785.77

16.00% 22261.92 66785.77

18.00% 22261.92 66785.77

20.00% 22261.92 66785.77

22.00% 22261.92 66785.77

24.00% 22261.92 66785.77

26.00% 22261.92 66785.77

28.00% 22261.92 66785.77

30.00% 22261.92 66785.77

32.00% 22261.92 66785.77

34.00% 22261.92 66785.77

36.00% 22261.92 66785.77

Question 6

If the selling price per stem in year 0 (US $) increases from 0.20 to 0.21, what is the percentage change in NPV of the project

from the equity point of view?

The change in the selling price per stem in year 0

Price $ Price Rs NPV2 (equity point of view)

0.20 38845.02 Percentage change price

0.20 4200 38845.02 5.00%

0.21 4410 43384.77

Question 7

An analyst has estimated the following discrete probability distribution for the (real) selling price per stem in year 0.

Real Selling price per stem in year 0 ($) 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.22

Probability >>>>> 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%

Based on this probability distribution, what is the expected NPV of the project from the equity point of view?

What is the probability of obtaining a negative NPV?

Percentage change NPV2

11.69%

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A B C D E F G H I

Adjusted selling price per stem in year 0 ($) 0.20

Price $ Price Rs NPV2 (equity point of view)

0.20 38845.02

0.20 ####### 38845.02

0.20 ####### 38845.02

The probability of bataining a negative NPV - With any the probability lead to negative NPV. Because the NPV (equity point of view) equals 0 when

selling price per stem in year 0 was 0.23. The maximined value of probability distribution is 0.22 and relationship between selling price per stem andNPV is positive

Question 8

How would the expected NPV of the project from the equity point of view change if the following discrete probability distribution was appropriate.

Real Selling price per stem in year 0 ($) 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.22

Probability >>>>> 15% 20% 30% 20% 15%

What is the probability of obtaining a negative NPV? What is the value of the expected loss?

Year

Price $ Price Rs NPV2 2 3 4 5 6

38845.02 13615.14 16595.76 27156.05 30708.01 34620.78

0.22 4620.00 47924.53 15949.15 19346.55 30988.83 34924.07 39258.44

0.20 4200.00 38845.02 13615.14 16595.76 27156.05 30708.01 34620.78

Expected Los

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J K L M N O P Q R S T U V

doanh schi ph mua hng

doanh s

8 9

95% 95%

Year 0 Year 1

0 2,000

2,000 1,000

Ngn hng Chnh ph

10% 5%

7 6

Thit b Dng c

Dng c khc v chi ph khc

10 4

nm nmGi tr

15%

12.00%

20%

10.00%

5.00%

21000

25.00%


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20.4500%

15.50% 15.5%

15.50% 15.50%

21.00% 21.00%

23.20% 23.20%

26.50% 26.50%

32.00% 32.00%

21,000 21,000 21,000

21,000 21,000 21,000

8 9 10

2 2 3

1 2 2

1 2 2

30,468 31,919 33,439

30,468 31,919 33,439

30,468 31,919 33,439

8

913.21

141.55

1054.76

913.21

141.55

0.00

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1145.45 627.15

240.54 131.70

758.85 758.85

518.30 627.15

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8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

5600.00 5600.00 5600.00 5600.00 5600.00 5600.00 5600.00 5600.00 5600.00 5600.00

373.33 373.33 373.3333333 373.33333 373.33333 373.33333 373.33333 373.33333 373.33333 373.33333

2613.33 2986.67 373.3333333 746.66667 1120 1493.3333 1866.6667 2240 2613.3333 2986.6667

2986.67 2613.33 5226.67 4853.33 4480.00 4106.67 3733.33 3360.00 2986.67 2613.33

8 9

34000.00 34000.00

3400.00 3400.00

23800.00 27200.00

10200.00 6800.00

8 9

3000.00 3000.00

750.00 750.00

1500.00 2250.00

1500.00 750.00

8 9

997.92 997.92

249.48 249.48

748.44 997.92

249.48 0.00

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8 9

43597.92 43597.92

4772.81 4772.81

28661.77 33434.5914936.15 10163.33

0.00 0.00

8 9

10.26 10.26

10.26 10.26

9003.07 9903.38

92371.53 101608.68

8 9

1207.01 1354.27

643.08 707.38

1104.35 1220.86

4244.31 4668.74

7198.75 7951.25

1847.43 2032.17

9237.15 10160.876466.01 7112.61

17550.59 19305.65

24749.34 27256.90

8 9 10

2771.15 3048.26

4618.58 5080.43

254.44 282.097135.29 7846.60

251.92 277.11 -3048.26

419.87 461.86 -5080.43

24.92 27.66 -282.09

646.87 711.32

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92371.53 101608.68

11971.56 12724.07

80399.97 88884.62

11084.58 12193.04

6466.01 7112.61

62849.38 69578.97382.09 131.70

62467.3 69447.3

15616.8 17361.8

46850.5 52085.4

8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

91951.66 101146.82 26356.83 0 0 40340.916 45623.655 63981.516 69715.552 76687.107 84355.818 92791.4 102070.54

92371.53 101608.68 38419.92 45280.62 63091.00 69400.10 76340.11 83974.12 92371.53 101608.68

-419.87 -461.86 5080.43 1921.00 343.04 890.52 315.45 347.00 381.70 419.87 461.86

21276.39

5601.91

14576.401098.08

0.00

0.00

0.00

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25422.51 27999.60 -2220.89 8300.00 52598.92 12737.59 13412.05 17601.36 18942.49 20840.73 22931.48 25234.33 27770.85

8100.00 52397.92

7198.75 7951.25 3968.80 4382.32 4839.16 5343.90 5901.59 6517.81 7198.75 7951.25

1847.43 2032.17 7299.78 8603.32 11987.29 13186.02 14504.62 15955.08 17550.59 19305.65

9237.15 10160.87 114.40 17.58 36.57 18.25 20.25 22.46 24.92 27.66

6466.01 7112.61 1152.60 205.82 534.31 189.27 208.20 229.02 251.92 277.11

-24.92 -27.66 282.09 200 201 202.005 203.01503 204.0301 205.05025 206.0755 207.10588 208.14141 209.18212

251.92 277.11 -3048.26 -8300.00 -52598.92 27603.32 32211.61 46380.15 50773.06 55846.38 61424.34 67557.07 74299.68

446.170 493.240 545.277 4538.4 5531.9 9052.0 10236.0 11540.3 14033.5 15616.8 17361.8

66529.1 73147.2 28577.7 -8300.00 -52598.92 23064.94 26679.69 37328.14 40537.06 44306.12 47390.89 51940.25 56937.87

15616.82 17361.82

50912.3 55785.4 28577.7

23751.0 23658.5 11017.9

ent

8 9 10

91951.66 101146.82 26356.83

92371.53 101608.68 0.00

-419.87 -461.86 5080.43

21276.39

5601.91

14576.40

1098.08

0.00

0.00

0.00

27236.12 28758.45 -2220.89

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7198.75 7951.25 0.00

1847.43 2032.17 0.00

9237.15 10160.87 0.00

6466.01 7112.61 0.00

-24.92 -27.66 282.09

251.92 277.11 -3048.26

0.00 0.00

446.170 493.240 545.277

1813.61 758.85 0.00

64715.5 72388.4 28577.7

15616.8 17361.8

49098.7 55026.6 28577.7

22904.9 23336.6 11017.9

8 9 1091951.66 101146.82 26372.60

92371.53 101608.68 0.00

-419.87 -461.86 5080.43

21276.39

5601.91

14576.40

1098.08

0.00

0.00

15.77

25422.51 27999.60 -2220.89

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280

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282

283

284

285

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291

292

293

294

295

296

297

298

299

300

301

302

303

304

305

306

307

308

309


7198.75 7951.25 0.00

1847.43 2032.17 0.00

9237.15 10160.87 0.00

6466.01 7112.61 0.00

0.00 0.00

446.170 493.240 545.277

-24.92 -27.66 282.09

251.92 277.11 -3048.26

66529.15 73147.22 28593.49

31036.34 31021.56 11024.03

NPV3 = 40156.93

8 9 10

16671.581 17361.816 0.000

15616.821 17361.816

1054.761

0.000 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000

15616.821 17361.816 0.000

8 9 10

16671.581 17361.816 0.000

15616.821 17361.816

1054.761 0.000 0.000

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310

311

312

313

314

315

316

317

318

319

320

321

322

323

324

325

326

327

328

329

330

331

332333

334

335

336

337

338

339

340

341

342

343344

345

346

347

348


0.000 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000

16671.581 17361.816 0.000

NPV1 NPV2 NPV3

49488.48 38845.02 40156.93

48359.94 37780.83 39055.02

47677.07 37136.90 38388.28

49270.43 38639.40 39944.02

46083.72 35634.41 36832.53

48200.60 37630.58 38899.45

NPV1 NPV2 NPV3

49488.48 38845.02 40156.93

49488.48 38845.02 40156.93

49488.48 38845.02 40156.93

49488.48 38845.02 40156.93

49488.48 38845.02 40156.93

49488.48 38845.02 40156.93

49488.48 38845.02 40156.93

49488.48 38845.02 40156.93

49488.48 38845.02 40156.93

49488.48 38845.02 40156.93

pacity utilization

e of plant

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349

350

351

352

353

354

355356

357

358

359

360

361

362

363

364

365

366367

368

369

370

371372

373

374

375

376377

378379

380

381

382

383

384

385

386

387388

389

390

391

392


7 8 9

90% 90% 90%80% 80% 70%

80% 80% 80%

7 8 9

90% 90% 90%

2

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393

394

395

396

397

398

399400

401

402

403

404

405

406

407

408

409

410

411

412

413

414

415

416

417

418

419

420421

422

423

424

425

426

427

428

429

430

431432

433

434

435

436

437


8 9 10

43,092.00 43,092.00 0.00

-195.87 -195.87 1,958.73

0.00 0.00 8,202.97

0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

3358.27 3372.11 0.00

8187.48 8187.48 0.00

-11.63 -11.73 108.76

117.52 117.52 -1175.24

0.00 0.00 0.00

208.141 209.182 210.228

846.06 321.83 0.00

19.49% 21.44%

153606.13 153606.13

0% 2 5.0 0% 30.0 0%

Series1

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438

439

440

441

442

443

444445

446

447

448

449

450

451

452

453

454

455456

457

458

459

460

461

462

463

464

465

466

467

468

469

470

471

472

473

474

475

476477

478

479

480

481

482


-1608.92 -1608.92

2027.65 2027.65

4608.70 4608.70

49976.64 49976.64

12938.47 12938.47

29185.17 29185.17

-89.62 -89.62965.35 965.35

0.00 0.00

1226.03 1226.03

3324.57 3324.57

8 9

21,856.09 22,089.31

7 8 9

21,604.14 21,856.09 22,089.31

18986.30 19238.25 19471.48

20295.22 20547.17 20780.40

21604.14 21856.09 22089.31

22913.06 23165.01 23398.23

24221.98 24473.93 24707.15

25530.90 25782.84 26016.07

26839.82 27091.76 27324.99

7 8 9

21,604.14 21,856.09 22,089.31

21699.89 21943.13 22168.4421699.81 21943.05 22168.38

21699.75 21943.00 22168.33

21699.72 21942.98 22168.31

21699.67 21942.93 22168.26

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483

484

485

486

487

488

489490

491

492

493

494

495

496

497

498

499

500501

502

503

504

505

506

507

508

509

510511

512

513

514

515

516

517

518

519

520

521522

523

524

525

526


7 8 9

21,604.14 21,856.09 22,089.31

22896.90 23148.85 23382.07

22250.52 22502.47 22735.69

21604.14 21856.09 22089.31

20957.76 21209.71 21442.93

20311.38 20563.33 20796.5519665.00 19916.95 20150.17

19018.62 19270.57 19503.79

7 8 9

1,045.43 1,108.48 1,178.15

1045.43 1108.48 1178.15

1099.02 1167.43 1243.00

1116.88 1187.08 1264.61

1152.61 1226.38 1307.841429

7 8 9

21,604.14 21,856.09 22,089.31

21381.39 21633.34 21866.56

21307.14 21559.09 21792.31

21158.64 21410.59 21643.81

7 8 9

1116.88 1187.08 1264.61

21307.14 21559.09 21792.31

scenario2 scenario3

2 3

0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00

4.31 3.43

2.08 1.20

7.62 6.74

9.41 8.5211.08 10.18

14.60 13.70

15.91 15.01

17.16 16.25

al net income (million)

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527

528

529

530

531

532

533534

535

536

537

538

539

540

541

542

543

544545

546

547

548

549

550

551

552

553

554

555

556

557

558

559

560

561

562

563

564

565566

567

568

569

570

571


7285.36 7363.10

21856.09 22089.31

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572

573

574

575

576

577

578579

580

581

582

583

584

585

586

587

588

589590


7 8 9

42100.36 46850.46 52085.45

47201.79 52462.03 58258.1842100.36 46850.46 52085.45

Page 34

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1

2

3

4

5

6

78

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

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1819

20

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23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

3940

41

42

43

44

W

Page 35

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45

46

47

48

49

50

5152

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

6263

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

8384

85

86

87

88

89

W

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90

91

92

93

94

95

9697

98

99

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102

103

104

105106

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110

111

112

113

114

115116

117

118

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121

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123

124

125

126127

128

129

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131

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138139

140

141

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149150

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154

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156

157

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159

160

161

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165

166

167

168

169

170171

172

173

174

175

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176

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182183

184

185

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189

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191

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193194

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196

197

198

199

200

201

202

203

204

205

206

207

208

209

210

211212

213

214

215

10

585729.84

570486.07

5080.43

10163.33

2613.33

6800.00750.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Page 39

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216

217

218

219

220

221

222

223

224

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226

227

228

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230

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232

233

234

235

236

237

238

239

240

241

242

243

244

245

246

247

158036.51

46103.58

108392.35

282.09

3048.26

210.22803

427693.33

427693.33

Page 40

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