India Maize Summit 2015Improving Quality and Production: Technology and other inputs

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Mr. Nalin Rawal Chief Business Head-Agri Business Solutions

Skymet Weather Services Pvt. Ltd.

Maize Industry

Challenges

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MAJOR CHALLENGES

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Production

Weather Risk during Maize seed / crop production ??

Monitoring & Control of Seed Production in vast geographies - High cost??

Real time production advisories – challenge??

Multi locational research field trials - limited control of breeder ??

Seed production farmer integrity ??

Often compensation is required to be paid to the farmers

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Marketing

Market Size - Acreages & Gross seed potential estimation

Germination risk in farmer’s field

Agro advisory onus of seed company- Complete POP required but little control over use

of other agri inputs

Monitoring of large scale farmer field demonstrations for new varieties

Demand Estimation & Availability- Right variety, Right Place at Right price

MAJOR CHALLENGES

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Procurement / Trading

Exact Knowledge on acreage trends – crop shift, variety shift etc.

Weather challenges during production cycle – leading to productivity variations

Production estimates

Quality of produce

Forward trading – unpredictability in production

Where to buy from ? Warehousing ? Logistics ?

Hedging trade risk linked to production

MAJOR CHALLENGES

SOLUTIONS…

WEATHER FORECAST

Hedging Weather Risk…

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2700+ AWS Locations

15 States

Head Office: Noida

Regional Office(S) : 4 (Patna, Jaipur, Mumbai & Hyderabad)

LONG RANGE MONSOON FORECASTS

Monsoon forecasts at district level – JJAS

2012 2013 2014

Skymet Forecast 95% of LPA 103% of LPA 91% of LPA

Actual Monsoon 93% of LPA 105% of LPA 88% of LPA

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST

Monthly rainfall forecasts updated fortnightly

Monthly temperature forecasts – trends

SHORT RANGE FORECAST

Seven days forecast updated on daily basis

Live hourly data of weather conditions

GIS & UAV Based

Crop - Acreage / Health Monitoring &

Yield Forecasting

CROP ACREAGE STATUS – PUNJAB PADDY (Kharif’2014)

Paddy Crop Sowing Status till mid June Paddy Crop Sowing Status till 1st week of July

Paddy Crop Sowing Status till End of July

Crop Sowing

Status end of Season

ACERAGE – PUNJAB DISTRICT WISE PADDY

District wise Paddy acreage

MAIZE ACREAGE – KHAGARIA (BIHAR)

MAIZE ACREAGE – KHAGARIA (BIHAR)

UAV Based Crop Monitoring

UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLE (UAV)

Completely automatic & remote controlled

Ability to reach maximum of 400m from ground

Captures 1.4 Km x 1.4 Km image (ground coverage)

Horizontal coverage in one flight 4Km radius

Continuously captures video

Continuously sends images at every 5 sec

Provides Geo referenced images

UAV IMAGES – 150M

UAV IMAGES – 100M

UAV IMAGES – 75M

UAV IMAGES – 50M

Groundnut

Cotton

WEB PORTAL | UAV BASED FARM MONITORING

PROCESS FLOW - CROP YIELD ESTIMATION

FINAL CROP ESTIMATE – CROP CUTTING EXPERIMENTS

Skymet provides Acreage & Final yield estimation

(95% accuracy)

Real Time Crop Advisory

REAL TIME CROP ADVISORY

Current Weather & Forecast

Actual ConditionTemp-43 0 C ; RH-20%

No Rain / Moisture stress

Crop Advisory

1) Drain water from nursery and fill fresh water on daily basis

2) Delay Transplanting by -7 days

GIS image

Paddy (Pusa Basmati 1121)

Real Time Crop Advisory

Farmers RetailersDealers

Sales EmployeeMarketing personDistribution person Seed Production

Pest Forecasting

BROWN PLANT HOPPER – PADDY

Brown Plant Hopper (BPH)

BPH Life Cycle

Eggs Hatchability highest at 25°CBPH Population Max 28-30°CRH >70High Nitrogen levels

Paddy

Crop stage information

Crop Risk Management

CUSTOMISED CROP RISK MANAGEMENT

Drawbacks:

• Inadequate product

• Cryptic payout calculations

• Opaque payouts

• Mistrust on insurance

Benefits:

• Customized product

• Transparent payout calculations

• Equitable payouts

• Trust build-up on insurance

EXISTING PROPOSED

WEATHER BASED CROP INSURANCE

Particular Features

Customized Crop Insurance

Weather based customized crop insurance products

Transparent payout calculations

Access to live weather data

Equitable payout

Weather Derivative Based Crop Insurance

Companies having direct interest in agriculture

Companies pay out premium and payouts are paid directly to company

Commodity trading companies involved in contract farming or building relations with farmers

Seed companies – seed production programs

PRODUCT CUSTOMIZATION – MAIZE

Earlier Product Modified ProductCrop: MAIZE JALGAON Unit: HECTARE

PERIOD 1-Jun to 30-Jun 1-Jul to 31-Jul 1-Aug to 31-Aug

INDEX

STRIKE I (<) (in mm) 60 110 90

STRIKE 2 (<) (in mm) 20 40 30

EXIT (in mm) 10 30 10

RATE1 (Rs./ mm) 2.5 1.428571 1.666666667

RATE 2 (Rs./ mm) 25 30 12.5

MAXIMUM PAYOUT (Rs.) 350 400 350

TOTAL PAYOUT (Rs.) 1100

PERIOD 15-Jul to 31-Aug

INDEX

STRIKE (=>) 20 25 30 35 40

PAYOUT (Rs.) 200 300 500 800 1000

TOTAL PAYOUT (Rs.) 1000

PERIOD 6-Jul to 30-Jul 31-Jul to 31-Aug 1-Sep to 30-Sep

INDEX Maximum of 3

STRIKE (>) (in mm) 250 mm 350 mm 260 mm

EXIT (in mm) 350 mm 450 mm 360 mm

RATE (Rs/mm) 3.00 3.00 3.00

MAXIMUM PAYOUT (Rs) 300 300 300

TOTAL PAYOUT (Rs.) 900

SUM INSURED (Rs.) 3000

PREMIUM (Rs./ ha.) 178

Premium (Rs./ ha.) (incl service tax) 200

EXCESS RAINFALL

(Single Payout)

consecutive days cumulative rainfall above strike during course

DEFICIT RAINFALL

RAINFALL

DISTRIBUTION

(Multiple Payouts)

Number of days in a spell of Consecutive dry days with

<2.5 mm of rainfall

PHASE - I PHASE - II PHASE - III

District

PHASE - I PHASE - II PHASE - III

RAINFALL VOLUME

Aggregate of rainfall below the strike during respective phases.

Crop: MAIZE Jalgaon Unit:

PERIOD 1-Jun to 30-Jun 1-Jul to 31-Jul 1-Aug to 31-Aug

INDEX

STRIKE I (<) (in mm) 70 120 100

STRIKE 2 (<) (in mm) 30 50 40

EXIT (in mm) 20 40 20

RATE1 (Rs./ mm) 2.5 1.428571429 1.666666667

RATE 2 (Rs./ mm) 25 30 12.5

MAXIMUM PAYOUT (Rs.) 350 400 350

TOTAL PAYOUT (Rs.) 1100

PERIOD 15-Jul to 31-Aug

INDEX

STRIKE (=>) 12 15 18 20 22

PAYOUT (Rs.) 200 300 500 800 1000

TOTAL PAYOUT (Rs.) 1000

PERIOD 6-Jul to 30-Jul 31-Jul to 31-Aug 1-Sep to 30-Sep

INDEX Maximum of 3

STRIKE (>) (in mm) 150 mm 250 mm 160 mm

EXIT (in mm) 250 mm 350 mm 260 mm

RATE (Rs/mm) 3.00 3.00 3.00

MAXIMUM PAYOUT (Rs) 300 300 300

TOTAL PAYOUT (Rs.) 900

SUM INSURED (Rs.) 3000

PREMIUM (Rs./ ha.) 150

Premium (Rs./ ha.) (incl service tax) 169

RAINFALL

VOLUME

Aggregate of rainfall below the strike during respective phases.

DEFICIT

RAINFALL

District HECTARE

PHASE - I PHASE - II PHASE - III

EXCESS

RAINFALL

(Single Payout)

consecutive days cumulative rainfall above strike

RAINFALL

DISTRIBUTION

(Multiple Payouts)

Number of days in a spell of Consecutive dry days

with <2.5 mm of rainfall

PHASE - I PHASE - II PHASE - III

TRANSPARENCY – INFORMATION & PAYOUTS

POINTERS

Hedging weather risk – Long, Medium & Short range forecast

Accurate information on Increase / decrease of crop acreage

Crop Monitoring - Better market intelligence on crop condition

Production estimates – based on crop monitoring & CCE

Realistic crop advisories to the farmers based on different crop stages and

weather conditions

Maize Crop Risk Hedging – Insurance for farmers & Companies

Thank You

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Contact: Mr. Nalin Rawalnalin.rawal@skymetweather.comSkymet Weather Services Pvt. Ltd.Plot No. 10 & 11, Sector 125 Noida

+91-9811-714-741