innovation economy v3 (downloadable)

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11/11/2008

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Innovation Economy:Resist the hype but don’t ignore the realities

Dr. Jimmy SchwarzkopfResearch Fellow

S T K I [email protected]

STKI

האנציקלופדיה החופשית,מתוך ויקיפדיה- STKIחברת Schwarzkopf The Knowledge Integrators

המפעילה צוות , היא חברת ייעוץ בתחום מערכות מידע בישראלאנליסטים בנקיםשל כוללים החברה ביטוחלקוחות חברות

WIKIPEDIA

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ם סט ם. של אנל ם בנק טוח,לקוחות החברה כולל ,חברות ב.חברות טלקום ועוד, טק ותעשייה-חברות היי, משרדי ממשלהשוורצקוף ביצע את ) חיים(ימי 'ר ג"ד, 80-באמצע שנות ה

, המחקר הראשון מסוגו אודות שוק טכנולוגיית המידע בישראלונתן , המחקר הכה גלים בשוק הישראלי. DECעבור חברת

. תמונת מצב קונקרטית בשוק שהיה עד אותה עת בלתי ממופההקים את חברת 1992ר שוורצקוף המשיך בחקר השוק ובשנת"ד

Meta Group Israel , ששימשה כנציגות בישראל של חברתMeta Group ר "המשיך ד, במסגרת החברה. העולמית

וכן לספק , שוורצקוף לפרסם מחקרי שוק בתחום באופן קבוענרכשה 2004בשנת . ייעוץ לחברות והארגונים המובילים בשוק

Meta Group ר שוורצקוף "וד, העולמית על ידי חברת גרטנר. STKIוהאנליסטים המשיכו בפעילותם בישראל תחת השם

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Inviting you to my office

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and to my library.........


This presentation is dangerous: will make people think about

intelligence and wisdom (two very different things)

• Evariste Galois (1811‐1832)– accepted a duel with pistols.

– spent the night before the duel in writing down his mathematical testament: theory of transformation of roots in algebraic equations.



11/11/2008


If I could have predicted this ??


“When the network becomes as fast as the processor, the computer hollows out and

spreads across the network.”– Eric Schmidt, did in 1993

So: I cannot “predict” any one in particular but…..

Exponential Growth in logarithmic plot

15

www.KurzweilAI.net

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www.KurzweilAI.net

What has happened in 2008 and what can I do?

Is there a difference between Is there a difference between economic cycles economic cycles caused by:caused by:

1.1. Technology changesTechnology changes

2.2. Credit mismanagementCredit mismanagement


…will this change INSTITUTIONS…will this change INSTITUTIONSorganization, production and consumptionorganization, production and consumption

habits and norms ?habits and norms ?

Prof. Prescott and Prof. Kydland

• "contributions to dynamic macroeconomics: the time consistency of economic policy and the

driving forces behind business cycles"

• Forces behind business cycles:

T h l f ti i t f– Technology for converting inputs of capital and labor into output of goods (technology for creating value)

– Technological change

Sveriges Riksbank Prize Economic SciencesAlfred Nobel 2004



11/11/2008


Economic progress takes place by overlapping surgesDRIVEN BY SUCCESSIVE TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS

Technologicalprogress


Time40-60 years

FIVE TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS IN 230 YEARS


PROF. THOMAS KUHN• we do not advance in steady, even progress but in a series of peaceful interludes series of peaceful interludes punctuated by violent revolutionspunctuated by violent revolutions,• each conceptual world view is replaced by another


PARADIGM SHIFTPARADIGM SHIFT::

1. A change in world view that calls everything you know into question

2. Paradigm Shift Rate is now doubling every decade

Prof. Joseph Schumpeter

• Suggested that Economies are Driven by “Creative Destruction”

• Shifts the Focus of Economics from Price Adjustment to Innovation

Fi i l I i T d• Financial Innovation Tends to Produce Sectoral Bubbles

• Bubbles Tend to Eventually Burst

• The Fallout from Bursting Bubbles Often Threatens to Trigger an Economy‐wide Recession


TWO DIFFERENT PERIODS IN EACH GREAT SURGE

DegreeDegreeof diffusionof diffusion

of theof thetechnological technological

revolutionrevolution

TurningTurningPointPoint

on

an

d r

ole

sh

ift

on

an

d r

ole

sh

ift

INSTALLATION PERIODINSTALLATION PERIOD DEPLOYMENT PERIODDEPLOYMENT PERIOD

Kuhn’s“boom”


bigbig--bangbang NextNextbigbig--bangbang TimeTime

Inst

itutio

na

l re

com

po

sitio

Inst

itutio

na

l re

com

po

sitio

‘Creative‘Creativedestruction’destruction’Paradigm shiftParadigm shift

Reaping of growth Reaping of growth and social benefits and social benefits from the prevailingfrom the prevailingparadigmparadigm

22O O -- 30 30 yearsyears 22O O -- 30 30 yearsyears??????

Schumpeter’sCreative

destruction

Austrian‐School credit cycle theory

• Ineffective central bank policies tend to "artificially" set interest rates too low for too long, resulting in excessive credit creation, speculative "bubbles" and "artificially" low savings.

– Low interest rates tend to stimulate borrowing from the banking system.

– Leading to an unsustainable "monetary boom" during whichLeading to an unsustainable monetary boom during which the "artificially stimulated" borrowing seeks out diminishing investment opportunities.

– A correction or "credit crunch" – commonly called a "recession" or "bust" – occurs when this credit creation cannot be sustained.



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Recurring phases of each great surge


The changing face of the last 100 years


During the deployment phase: unprecedented opportunities and new business models


Prof. Carlota Perez : TECHNO‐ECONOMIC PARADIGM SHIFTS


Which road should we take ?

Alice came to a fork in the road.

“Which road do I take?” she asked.

“Where do you want to go?”

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responded the Cheshire cat.

“I don’t know” Alice answered.

“Then” said the cat,

“it doesn’t matter”. Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland

directions of the current paradigm shift



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FEATURES OF THE CURRENT PARADIGM SHIFT

“SERVICES”


Reinvest in

human capital


human capital

Prof. Israel Kirzner

• Into a world of men unable to learn… introduce a group of outsiders who are able to perceive opportunities…where a good can be sold at a price higher than that at which it can be brought.


• This group of entrepreneurs…notice profit opportunities that exist because of the initial ignorance of the original market participants and that have persisted because of their inability to learn.


Assumption : Generation C is here

The birth of The birth of Generation CGeneration C

(T people)(T people)

Control

Co-Creators

Cash

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(T people)(T people)

Content

Communicate

Creativity

Channel

Creative Class

Community

Connected

Consumer 2.0

Conversation


from BUILD product to CREATE service

Red Ocean Strategy Blue Ocean Strategy

Compete in existing market space. Create uncontested market space.

Beat the competition. Make the competition irrelevant.

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Exploit existing demand. Create and capture new demand.

Make the value-cost trade-off. Break the value-cost trade-off.

Align the whole system of a firm’s activities with its strategic choice of differentiation or low cost.

Align the whole system of a firm’s activities in pursuit of differentiation and low cost.

The New Economic Age



11/11/2008


So what do we do in the “New Era” ?

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Shift to asolutions economysolutions economy

From product to service


What are customers trying to solve?

“Less stuff… more service”

Service : A Definition

• Cultural change: From product to service.

• Service is produced and consumed at customer site and delivered by people.

• A service is a series of activities that normally take place in interactions between the customer and supplier (employees, physical resources, goods and/or systems), and which are provided as answers to customers' needs.


Example: Suppliers of components with added‐value

• Suppliers deliver more than a product, they deliver a service:

– involvement in design phase of final product

– order process

d li i ti d t– delivery in‐time and accurate

– invoice process

• The quality of the whole process is relevant, not only the quality of the delivered components.


Competition in services?better processes



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Innovation

SERVICE ECONOMYpushes need for “new CIO”

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Time

BUSINESSPROCESSES


“I’m an inventor. I became interested in long term trends because an invention has toinvention has to make sense in the world in which it is finished, not the world in which it is started.”

‐

Ray Kurzweil


Moving from PRODUCT to a SERVICE ?

• Represents a change in BUSINESS MODEL ?

• Represents a “disruptive” change ?

YESCLOUD COMPUTING and SOA are basically new

“disruptive” ways of delivering IT


Cloud Computing Modularity

Desktop as a service

Software as a service(standard applications)


(standard applications)

Platform as a service(custom applications)

Infrastructure as a service(compute, storage, network)

Wisdom of Clouds : "cloud computing" "cloud computing"

What's revolutionary is not cloud computing itself but how the pieces have come together how the pieces have come together to make doing business in the cloud seem increasingly like an economic inevitabilityeconomic inevitability

Cl d ti i i l t Your Text hereYour Text here

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Cloud computing is a simple concept: • Software and services are delivered over the Web and

through a browser. • No servers or client software to install.• Available anytime, anywhere, from any device

connecting to the Internet


What is Cloud Computing?1. data and services reside in massively scalable datacenters

2. accessed from any connected devices over theinternet.

4+ billion phones by 2010

Web 2.0-enabled PCs, TVs, etc.

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Cloud Computing Architecture

VirtualMachine

VirtualMachine

VirtualMachine

VirtualMachine

Apache

Monitoring DBMS

Management Stack

Provisioning Manager

Application Server

Monitoring Provisioning Baremetal & Xen VM

Open Source Linux with Xen

Monitoring Agent

Virtualized Infrastructure based on Open Source Linux & Xen

Data Center – 64 bit X86




History of Innovation


Some background

Your Text hereYour Text here


Computing and Communication Technologies Evolution: 1960‐2010!

Cloud Computing


Control

Centralised Decentralised


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Disruptive technologies• Introduction of the IBM Mainframe ( 1960’s)

• Introduction of the Apple II (1978), IBM PC (1981), TCP/IP (1980’s), C/S Architectures (1980’s), SUN workstations (1980’s), Internet (1990’s)

• Open Source (2002); Introduction of XML‐based Composite Applications (2006), Service Oriented Architectures (2005), Virtualized Infrastructures (2004), Web2/internet 2 (2007), Cloud Computing (2008), METAweb (2008)


Books of the 1980‐90s

-” No institution can possibly survive if it needs needs geniuses or supermen to manage itgeniuses or supermen to manage it.It must be organized in such a way as to be

able to get along under a leadership composed leadership composed of average of average human beings”-



“It is the means by which [organizations] create value-producing resources or endows existing resources with enhanced potential for creating value”

“The customer rarely buys what the company

thinks it is selling him”

BOOK OF THE 1990’s• Introduced the business world to rethinking operations.

• Demonstrated how process redesign can yield breakthroughs in performancebreakthroughs in performance

• Put the word "reengineering" into the English language.

Plus 10,000 rebuttals

And 20+ books


BOOK OF 2003copied: “The Myth of Real Time Information”, HBR 1966


Plus 2000+ rebuttals

And 5 books

Book of 2005• Thomas Friedman

– 3 billion people (consumers & producers) entered the world economies

• Eastern Europe (ie: Rumania)

• Asia (ie: China, India)

– Now we have a “new” economy:

• Interconnected (fiber everywhere)

• Standardized (Open Source)

• Supply Chains Management

• Out‐sourcing, In‐sourcing, Off‐shoring

• Info sourcing


Book of 2008

• Stephen Baker introduces us to the mathematical wizards who are digging through our data to decode us as patients, shoppers, voters, potential terrorists—even lovers.terrorists even lovers.

• translate the complexity of highly intelligent knowledge workers into the same types of equations and algorithms that are used to fine‐tune shipping, sales and other BI applications.



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Math based word cloud


A process of mutual shaping in a constantly changing context

TECHNOLOGY SOCIETY


Maslow’s hierarchy of needs


Access Proliferation

• Video games• Email• XBox LIVE• Websites• IM• Search

• Radio• DVD• Ring Tones• TV• Blogs• Magazines

• Satellite Radio• TiVo (Starhub PVR)• Video On-Demand• Newspapers• Podcasting• Cell Phone

Source: Darwin Day Conference, Google

and the effect on IT…….


WCMSecurity

Application Servers

EAIExpertise Location & Mgmt.

SSO

Wireless

The Peopleware EcosystemIdentity Management

Composite App.Framework


PeoplewareWeb Services

E-Forms/Workflow

Search

Development Tools

E-Learning

Directory

Collaboration

& Mgmt.

Business Intelligence

Knowledge Mgmt.DM

BPMBAM


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Infrastructures influence the new T person

• infrastructure makes it possible for people to work where they want, when they want, how they want

• SIX abilities needed:

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1. Design – Beauty and uniqueness

2. Story – More than mere facts

3. Symphony – Seeing the big picture

4. Empathy – Understanding others

5. Play ‐ Enjoyment

6. Meaning – Fulfillment


OLDENBURG: how infrastructure…

Time is primarily spent in :• First (home) place: isolated• Second (work) place: isolated• Third places : neutral public space to

connect and establish bonds.

Big Changes now:Your Text hereYour Text here

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Big Changes now:• Between 1990-2006: people went to

anonymous locations such as malls• Starting in 2007: good third place makes

admission free or cheap (the price of a cup of coffee), offers comforts, is within walking distance and draws a group of regulars.


Defining the new worldT PERSON = Neo‐nomad Prof. Ragnar Frisch

• Willingness of people to substitute as well as their ability to substitute.

• One decision that people must kmake is:

– how to allocate their time endowment, which is the most precious resource an individual has.


Sveriges Riksbank Prize Economic SciencesAlfred Nobel 1969

Neo‐nomads : new Bedouins flourishing in the coffeehouses of central Israel

• A new breed of worker, fueled by caffeine and using the tools of modern technology

• They are typically armed with laptops and cell phones paying for


laptops and cell phones, paying for their office space and Internet access by buying coffee and muffins

• This neo‐nomads see themselves changing the nature of the workplace, if not the world at large.

Nomad Worker (2008) vs. Paris Existentialist (1950s)

Tel-Aviv geek with earphones and laptop in Arcaffe (2008)• simultaneously cramming for

exams, napping, instant-messaging, researching, reading and discussing, listening to music, browsing and e-mailing


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browsing and e mailingParis existentialist watching the

world go by at the café Les DeuxMagots (1950s) • puffing a Gitane, napping and

jotting down notes about being and nothingness



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20072007: the year of my discovery: the year of my discovery

•• “SACRED ORDER OF THE EXTERNAL MIND”“SACRED ORDER OF THE EXTERNAL MIND”

I could outsource mental tasks

Life is a math problem and I have a calculator

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•• MAGIC OF THE INFORMATION AGEMAGIC OF THE INFORMATION AGE

Not that it allows us to know more

It really allows us to know less


An example: my romantic attachment to my “GPS”

GPS

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•• EXTERNALIZE GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION FROM MY EXTERNALIZE GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION FROM MY BRAINBRAIN

•• OUTSOURCE MAP READING SKILLSOUTSOURCE MAP READING SKILLS

•• ALLOW CALCULATION OF DRIVE TIME ALLOW CALCULATION OF DRIVE TIME


Pinpoints a supermarket in MEXICO ?my son is calling from there


I have outsourced outsourced part of my life to external cognitive servantsexternal cognitive servants:

•• No longer need a No longer need a memorymemory– Google

– Yahoo

– Wikipedia

•• Musical taste:Musical taste:– ITunes

•• Books and others:Books and others:– Amazon

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•• Personal InformationPersonal Information– Smartphone tells me about birthdays, phones, addresses

•• Social CapitalSocial Capital– LinkedIn

– Xing

– Facebook


Buys tickets

Reads up on new cd

releases

Reads his friend’s postings

Downloads Songs

Music SitesBlog Sites

Movie Sites

Jimmy’s Touch Points

yonline

Checks scoresLooks for

information about Nascar

games

Gets the latest updates on

favorite teams

Sports Sites

Gaming Sites

Google.com

Searches for “what’s cool”



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And with access to these tools I can answer ANY question in less then 30 minutes


Transaction Sites Multimedia Sites Game Sites Social Sites

BanksInsuranceTravel“Amazon”“e‐bay”

YOUtubeSlideshareBlogsNewspapersWIKIPEDIA

Business SimulationsTrainingSecond LifeSales

Average person:10‐15 intimate150 social500‐1500 weak links

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Websites can no longer be islands

Users want bridges elsewhere


Is it a coincidence or someone is playing with us

1) Google's dissemination of old United Airlines news resulting in a precipitous UAL stock slide

2) Google stocks appeared to fall off a cliff during the final few minutes of trading last week(Silicon Alley Insider has a minute-by-minute breakdown), plummeting from more than $400 per share to around $200. Luckily, it turns out Nasdaq is declaring a “do-over,” canceling all trades above $425.28 or below $400.53. Nasdaq blamed the drop on “erroneous orders” that were “triggered by orders routed from another exchange.” So it has reset Google’s closing price at $400.52, up more than 5 percent from the day’s open.

3) Other news follows Google-related stock gaffe, during which Google Finance’s data was incorrect for more than 12 hours


more than 12 hours.

4) Apple stock briefly took a dive Friday after a CNN iReport post appeared saying Steve Jobs had had a major heart attack. Apple said the story was false.Stock prices fell as much as 5.4 percent before rebounding, according to Bloomberg. UPDATE: Here's CNN's official statement. CNN says it removed the story because the community brought the story to its attention. Importantly, CNN also refers to the content as "fraudulent," which is much stronger than "inaccurate." The SEC has already launched an investigation.

What happened?In all cases: systems unchecked by human beings made a mistake resulting in massive damage to an already fragile market.What else can we expect????????????But the episodes aptly illustrates how jumpy the markets are and how easily they could be manipulated.Posted by Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf

How do they happen…..


A powerful global conversation has begun

• Through the Internet, people are discovering and inventing new ways to share relevant knowledge with blinding speed.

• Networked markets are beginning to self‐organize faster than the companies that have traditionally served them.

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served them.

• As a direct result and thanks to the web, markets are becoming better informed, smarter, and more demanding of qualities missing from most business organizations.

• markets are getting smarter and getting smarter faster than most companies


“A Pattern Language”, Christopher Alexander

Each pattern describes a problem that occurs over and over again in our environment

Then describes the core of the solution to that problem, in such a way that


84

you can use this solution a million times over

Without ever doing it the same way twice



11/11/2008


Companies wake up !!!!!!!

Customers are:• writing about products on blogs• recutting commercials on YouTube • defining companies on Wikipedia• ganging up in social networking sites

CHARLENE LIJOSH BERNOFF


85

g g g p glike Facebook

MOST COMPANIES SEE IT AS A THREAT


Social Technographics™ Josh Bernoff, co‐author of Groundswell


METAweb phenomenon

(fi-nom-uh-non)

-noun

METAweb

87

noun

1. a rare or significant fact or event in the web that happened in 2007

2. something that is impressive or extraordinary that happened in 2007


METAweb


Google versus ???

Humanity emits the data (words, pictures, clicks, and searches are the raw material)

Handful of cloud-wielding Internet giants like Google, Yahoo! or Amazon.com transform the info into insights, services, and, ultimately, revenue.



http://labs.google.com/



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Cloud Computing

91

A. IBM Introduces 'Blue Cloud' Computing CIO Today ‐ Nov 15 2007

B. IBM, EU Launch RESERVOIR Research Initiative for Cloud ComputingIT News Online ‐ Feb 7 2008

C. Google and Salesforce.com in cloud computing dealSiliconrepublic.com ‐ Apr 14 2008


Why does it bother me ?


Core Search Ads Monetization Communications Collaboration ?

Google 10 years of innovation

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1995 1998 2000 2003 20052004 2007 ?


Google ad

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Open for Business


Internet 2 is not Web 2



11/11/2008


WEB WEB 2 2 are WEB are WEB TechnologiesTechnologies


Internet2: 2.4 Gbps plumbing

104

Leveraging the Web for Measureable Business Results

• Gone are the days when merely having an online presence was a business breakthrough.

105

• Today's companies MUST leverage the power of the Web if they're to gain and maintain a competitive advantage.


In 2010: all new WEB experience

Soon each website will become a 3 dimensional room that can be experienced alone or with friends



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11/11/2008


Create your own virtual spaceChat and interact with your friends


Add your room to your siteInvite your friends to chat and help decorate

Express yourselfCustomize your avatar and stream personal photos and video

Chat and interact with your friends in rooms you design

Ramona: first live virtual performing recording

artist.


Second Life is the biggest virtual world

• 40,000 concurrency (at any time)

• 450,000 active users (last 7 days)

• 1.4 m active users (last 2 months)

• 10.6 m total accounts

• 2 m assets created per day

• 35 TB of user‐created data

Million Square Meters of Second Life Land

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• 800,000 unique items sold or traded per month

• 500 events per day

• 15 m concurrent scripts

• 10 Gbps peak bandwidth

Source: http://secondlife.com/whatis/economy-graphs

Total User Hours (millions)

Source: Linden Lab

Currency: Linden$

• LindeX exchange operated by Linden Lab

– Buy: USD $.30 transaction fee

– Sell: 3.5% transaction fee

• Monetary policy

US$ Spent by Users (in Millions)

270 L$ =$1 USD

US $ Exchanged on Lindex (in Millions)

Economy

• Reuters

• Banking and credit

• Stock markets– SL Capital Exchange (US, 20 listings)

World Stock Exchange (Australia 15 listings)– World Stock Exchange (Australia, 15 listings)

– VSTEX (Italy, 7 listings)

– Ancapex (US, 3 listings)

Advisory/Analyst firms

We hope that during We hope that during 2009 2009 STKI STKI will will b t th d ill h it’b t th d ill h it’

H&R Block Island

BDO Stoy Hayward Island

KAWG&F (Baltimore MD CPA firm), CPA Island Accenture

be present there and will have it’s be present there and will have it’s first first SUMMITSUMMIT


11/11/2008


Business

Motorati SpokesAvatar:

LLi Li

IBM

Cisco

Preen Principal:Aimee Weber

Preen

115

caLLie cLine

H&R Block

Dr. Dobbs Life 2.0 Conference

Best Buy’sGeek Squad

Academia, museums, non‐profits

116

Princeton Art Gallery Science Friday

International Spaceflight Museum

Computer History Museum

American Cancer Society Relay for

Life

US Congress hot topic

Government, politics and collective action


US Congress

European Community

US Congress – hot topic legislation

Campaign HQs Davos protest

METAweb REVOLUTIONThe real, long-term change is just beginning to be felt,

and anyone thinking about our economic future should consider this: • access to information is a democratizing force• makes it inexpensive and easy to collaborate and share

information Your Text hereYour Text here

118

information. • even the smallest companies can now have as big a

presence online as a multinational corporation


The revolution may have started in a garage in California but it has already crossed every border

moving as freelyaround the globe as a cloud


innovation economy v3 (downloadable)

Economy & Finance