introducing physics-based digitalclone models and computational prognostics to reduce o&m costs -...

GE 1.5 Wind PR Deck

China WINDPOWER 2015

U.S. Material Genome Initiative

Human DNAMaterial Microstructure


Human genome -> human life information Material genome -> material life informationFunded by US government

2

New Prognostic Solution to Predict FailuresChina WINDPOWER 2015 Extend the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) through Prognostics

Prognostics vs. Diagnostics Data Model versus Material Science Model - Compatible Calculates Remaining Useful Life (RUL) and Recommends Options to Extend Life Simulates What if Scenarios to Optimize Performance Enables Efficient Asset Management Reduces the Time and Cost of Physical Design Testing

Technology differentiation prognostics vs. diagnosticsCrack initiation detected very earlyOperators make change as early as possible Differentiation: right bottom-top-left3

DigtialClone Live Technical ApproachChina WINDPOWER 2015

Technical approach4

What Process does DigitalClone Replace?Create a multi-physics model to test the life and performance of a specific gearbox and components under sensitivity studiesBuild a digital model and then run thousands of testsManage by exception by only focusing on changes to predictionsSoftware as a Service (nothing to install)

VS.PrognosticsDiagnosticsNO CAPEX / $31,000 development costs$3.5M CAPEX / $323,000in development costsChina WINDPOWER 2015

Prognostics vs. Diagnostics Top right, cost in capex US approximation

5

Ranking Fleet-wide GBX assets worst to best (whats not on your watch list?)

List of all GBX candidates for Up-tower component replacement critical component(s) list, new lifing predictions post replacement and ROI

List of all GBX candidates for de-rating to extend GBX life, calculated power levels and ROI

Per asset lifing predictions for any uprated GBX

/Per Asset GBX as-is BOM and to-be simulated BOM stored in ERP

55 year budgeting plan, based on data above, to estimate spend per site

Primary Data on Fleet HealthChina WINDPOWER 2015

Results of the DigitalClone6

DigitalClone Live UIChina WINDPOWER 2015

Site 1Site 2Site 3Site 4Site 5Site 6Site 7Site 8Fleet 1

Looks in fleet Observable damage

7


Site 1Site 2

Fleet 1

8

GBX System Level Power flow (DigitalClone System/Modelica)China WINDPOWER 2015

Components

9


Note: Clipper GBX Example

Simulation before changing the subcomponent

Clipper:10


Message: feedback form customers11


Note: Clipper GBX Example

Fleet level recommendation12

China WINDPOWER 2015 1.5 MW Fleet Failure Rate Predictions

Supplier 1Supplier 2Supplier 3Supplier 45 years10 years15 years20 yearsSentient Science applied our DigitalClone prognostic modeling to 1.5 MW gearboxes

DigitalClone predicts an increase in O&M costs in the next 6 years

:Optimizing Uptower Component ReplacementsGearbox Upgrades and Operational Changes (Lubricants, Derate/Uprate)Major Component Long Lead Time PlanningScheduled versus Unscheduled MaintenanceEvaluate New Gearbox and Components Life Extension before Procurement

Information: Suppliers for wind turbineMW:

13


Quantify Impact of: Lubrication change, de-rating, bearing replacement, surface treatments, etc.

Prognostics allows you to quantify what-if scenarios to extend RUL.GBX Bearing Performance Comparisons

Blue: averageRecommendation14

China WINDPOWER 2015 Endurance Limit, >10 years (90% confidence bounds)At no derate, the gearbox health will continue to degrade and may lead to catastrophic gear tooth loss due to bearing play (radial clearance of 1.5 mm)

Based on the full gearbox analysis, it is recommended to derate turbine to 1.2 MWs to avoid catastrophic failureLife Extension OptionsDerating Specific to Turbine Health State1.51.21.00.750Healthy GBXDamaged GBX

How do we calculate the derateEndurance Limit: Radial clearance

15


Results: Early failure were predicted on the sun gear and planetary bearing

The DriveMax upgrades were shown to improve the sun gear by a factor of 3x and improve the planetary bearing life by a factor of 1.65x1.5 MW Models Available for SuppliersBroadwind Case Study

Supplier prove their gear performance is betterSun gear:Planetary bearing:16


DigitalClone Live Integrated into a Smart GridSentient 5%4% 20

Inventory and Supply Chain Optimization (Build data at lower cost and time)

Big Data AnalyticsMaximoSAP

Fleet Process Optimization: ($10K reduction per asset)

CBM-PHM Industrial Internet investment Cap-ex reductionSensor reductionDecision Data at lowest costPeople OptimizationAsset Acquisition SupportM&A SupportRefinancing Support

O&M Aftermarket Life Extension & Super Components Decisions (O&M reductions of 10% - revenue increase 6%)

OEM/Supplier SaaSTest & Compare:UpgradesRepair, Remain, ReplaceContract negotiation

Start with Sentient information (top left)Inventory:Supply Chain Optimization: Smart Grid:Revenue:17

Introducing Physics-Based DigitalClone Models and Computational Prognostics to Reduce O&M CostsWe are Looking for a Partner in ChinaXiawa (Eva) Wu

Ed Wagner

18

introducing physics-based digitalclone models and computational prognostics to reduce o&m costs -...

Engineering