introduction to exponentials insights 2016

PRESENTATION SUMMARY

© Singularity Education Group 2014

Introduction to Exponentials

Rob Nail CEO & Associate Founder [email protected] @robnail www.singularityu.org

INTRO TO EXPONENTIALS

•  As technologies are “Digitized” and accelerate exponentially, they

•  Are “Deceptive” and Disruptive” •  Result in the “Dematerialization”,

“Demonetization”, and “Democratization” of products, services, and industries.

Digitalization Drives Exponentials §  Zero friction to move/copy §  Zero marginal cost §  Never consumed §  Allows for advanced computation & Machine

Learning , Modeling & Simulations

Scarce àAbundant


www.SingularityU.org S I N G U LA R I T YU N I V E R S I T Y

•  Exponential Technologies exhibit doubling patterns in the price, performance, capabilities, and/or size

“The average lifespan of a company listed in the S&P 500 has decreased from 67 years in

the 1920’s to 15 years today.” - Richard Foster, Yale University

Technology – empowered by information layers (“digitized”) - progresses

exponentially per Ray Kurzweil’s “Law of Accelerating Returns”

Faster,(Cheaper,(Computing(Power

Exponential TechnologiesUbiquitous(Computing(Networks/(Sensors((((

Artificial(Intelligence(&(Robotics(

Nanotech/(Digital(Manufacturing(

(

Digital(Biology(

6D’s%of%Disruption%

Exponential Technologies are driving disruptions in our lives,

businesses, total industries, and society as a whole.

BREAKTHROUGHS



Are we entering an age of Perfect Knowledge? : Anything, Anywhere, Anytime

Nanosat Constellations

Quad Copter Google Glass

Knightscope Security

Autonomous Vehicles

Artificial Intelligence

•  IBM Watson goes open source with new Development Platform •  Kaggle & other data science competitions empower machine learning algorithms

Computers, Networking •  Quantum Computing may be next paradigm to continue Moore’s Law – watch D-

Wave - New waves of applications are possible with Quantum computing capabilities •  Google Loon, Constellation Satellites, and other proposals suggest potential for new,

global data distribution networks – connecting the next 3Billion people?

3-5 Billion New Minds are coming on line in the next decade –

potentially the greatest force for change humanity has ever

witnessed – new ideas, connections, commerce, and

more…

BREAKTHROUGHS



SamsungGearVRCollab.w/Oculus–Dec2014

GoogleCardboardJune30,2014

Disrupting Reality? - Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality

•  Many new platforms are adding new layers of information to our world •  New ecosystem of content developers

•  Every business can take advantage of or be threatened by virtual reality layers

Robotics •  Rethink Robotics (Baxter) & Universal Robots work alongside humans not replace

them •  Google, Softbank, other buying robotics companies for the integrated future •  Social robot are here! •  Robots have emotional understanding through facial expression and voice analysis

•  Concierge robots in business replace tasks and create new engagement, connections, and value chains

BREAKTHROUGHS



Digital Manufacturing Disruption 3D Printing, New Robotics, Enhanced Automation Capabilities

•  How we design, make, test, and distribute products is being disrupted Biotechnology

•  Cost of human genome sequencing today ~$1,000 (down from $2.5 Billion in 2001) •  Forecast cost of $0.01 in 2022, suggests boom of new applications – security, disease

correlations,etc •  Data will be public

If you can read it, you can rewrite it! •  Synthetic Biology is coming to form – Glowing Plants, personalized foods & medicines,

functional bacteria, etc … and humans

CONTROVERSIES

•  Technology is disrupting jobs. While many new jobs will develop, there will likely be a technological knowledge gap that results in significant jobs disruption

•  Ethics of Technology and morality are challenging discussions –

requiring new forums and critical thinking •  Robotic Warfare? •  Synthetic Biological Organisms? •  GMOs? •  Politics of Grand Challenges – Poverty, Education, Food, etc.

“Permissionless Innovation” vs Regulation

•  How to balance opportunities and value with risks? •  What does the next generation think?

•  Huge challenges with Security, Privacy, Safety, Stability in every industry

•  DNA Sequencing will make all individual information public •  Industrial food will morph dramatically with synthetic biology, lab

meat, and personalized foods •  Commercial drones are no longer “illegal” – many risks around

drones carrying payloads •  A.I. trading and high freq trading will have market implications •  Crowdfunding will allow non-accredited investors to purchase

equity in organizations. Fear of fraud slows regulation •  Bitcoin Blockchain Protocol a breakthrough for registry systems –

rather than currency but disrupts existing infrastructure



“Information is power. But like all power, there are those who want to keep it for themselves” - Aaron Swartz, 1996 - 2013

“About 47% of total US employment is at risk… (due to) expected impacts of future computerization” - Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, Oxford Sep 7, 2013

MISCONCEPTIONS



“Technology can take that which was scarce and make

it Abundant” - Peter Diamandis

Typical “linear” biases include overestimating progress in the short-term, and underestimating potential in the long-term.

•  Early product launches do not necessarily represent a failed or lacking market – just that it is a prototype.

•  Google Glass may not be useful today, but in 2 years there will be a proliferation of apps and boom of useful (and probably necessary) wearable devices. “No matter who you are, most of the smartest people

work for someone else.” - Bill Joy

•  Crowdsourcing isn’t perfect •  Use established platforms to rapidly experiment

We must move from our Local & Linear

mindset to a Global & Exponential one

Websites

Rob Nail §  @Robnail

§  [email protected]


www.SingularityU.org

Books

http://singularityu.org/ www.kurzweilai.net www.xprize.org

TOOLS + RESOURCES

S I N G U LA R I T YU N I V E R S I T Y

http://singularityhub.com/ Impact Report: http://singularityu.org/impact

Technologyisa“ResourceLiberatingForce…”–PeterDiamandis,Abundance

RECOMMENDATIONS



Disrupt yourself or be disrupted! •  Identify new business models leveraging “abundant”

data/info (essentially free and ubiquitous) •  Launch “skunkworks” projects outside of the org •  Choose Open Collaborations, Competitions, and

Crowdsourced projects Mine and integrate information from disparate technology platforms

•  Affiliate partnerships with channels, supply chain organizations, and competitors can result in new Value Propositions for clients and customers

•  Virtual wallets and data sharing for retailers creates potential for new relationship with customer at the storefront

•  Look at customer incentive programs connecting personal health data and activity to financial incentives – see SU project Jumiya and Walkmore

Get Hands On! •  Experience Exponential Technologies first hand to

understand the capabilities and potential •  Get your kids into F.I.R.S.T

Beam Remote Presence – Suitable Technologies

SINGULARITY UNIVERSITY - THINK EXPONENTIALLY



“The best way to predict the future is to create it yourself.” - Peter’s Laws (inspired by A. Lincoln)

Singularity University’s mission is to educate, inspire and empower leaders to

apply exponentially advancing technologies to address humanity’s grand challenges.

Environment FoodEnergy Water

SecurityProsperity

Educa7on

GlobalHealth SpaceGovernance Disasters

THANK YOU! Keep pace with exponential technologies at Singularity University’s Executive Program. Learn more now! Visit www.SingularityU.org/ep Track the latest stories online:

www.singularityhub.com We also invite you to continue the conversation with us online at: •  facebook.com/singularityu •  twitter.com/singularityu •  gplus.to/singularityu •  youtube.com/singularityu •  linkedin.com/company/singularity-university


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