Introductory Primer:            Complexity Air War SoSs

Challenge 1 - Growing System SynthesisChallenge 2 – Higher-Order Human Functions

Challenge 3 – Cyber Threat Complexity response to Information DominanceChallenge 4 - Requirements Stasis

COMPLEXITY, INTERCONNECTEDNESS, AND VULNERABILITY

PHI Φ effects in the domains of warPhysical Domains: The traditional domains of warfare “where strike, protect and maneuver take place across the environments of land [and sub‐surface], air, space and sea [and sub‐surface]. The easiest to measure the lethality and survivability/ effectiveness.”Human Domain: The human domain of warfare:

Cognitive with the “mind of the warfighter and the supporting populous. Where battles and wars are won and lost. This is where the tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPS) reside.”   Social: those “sets of interactions between and among force entities.  The most changeable from operation to operation, mission to mission.”

Information Domain: The new domain where “information is created, manipulated, and shared and where the C2 will occur. The force has the capability to collaborate. Most sensitive of the domains to protect and defend.”

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Strategic context out to 2035:                          Future Operating Environments …

AUS White Paper / FPR / VCDF FOE 2035, Nov 16 R27345013 UK FOE 2035, Nov 2014 / UK Joint Concept Note 1/17 July 2017

US JOE 2035, Jul 2016 / National Strategy Dec 2017

Common Pervasive National Themes:• … future strategic context and operating environment are characterised by complexity,

instability, uncertainty and pervasive information.• The distinction between war and peace has blurred and state and non-state adversaries, threaten the stability of the rules-based international order that underpins long-term security.

• Significant changes are likely to come from the rapid development of information technologies, new sensors and novel weapons, artificial intelligence, biological and material

sciences and a rapid growth of remote and automated systems.• We must also harden some systems against electronic warfare or cyber attack and seek to

minimise or eliminate single points of failure. • Reversionary modes of operation, including passive sensors and minimising vulnerabilities

would increase resilience; an important component of adaptability.

• Technology / Tempo / Autonomy and human interaction / Electromagnetic Environment

• A culture that promotes collaboration, common understanding, a willingness to experiment, to take measured risk and accept setbacks, and to learn and adapt will reap dividends.

1943

1500 B-17 sorties9000 250lbs LDGP

3300 ft CEPOne 60’ x 100’ target

W.W.II

1971

30 F-4 sorties 176 500lbs HDGP

400 ft CEP

One TargetVietnam

2011

1 B-2 sortie16 2000lbs GPS

<5 ft CEP16 Targets per Pass

All Weather

1991

1 F-111/F-117 sortie

4/2 2000lbs LGBs10 ft CEP

4/2Targets per SortieDesert Storm

‘Revolutionary’ TechnologiesLaser Guidance

GPS Aided Guidance

Air Armament Capability Transformation Story

Unclassified

1980’s F2T2EA Operational View –Systems relationship …

1980’s F2T2EA Operational View –Systems relationship …

UNCLASSIFIED

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Conops:

Unguided … speed is life

Guided … Semi-active Lasers …

Weapons & Electronic/Cyber Warfare Effects Today’s ‘traditional' Kinetic and EW fires view 

C2 Node

Red Networks

Gray Networks

Mil/Civil: SCADAs

Mil/Civil: SCADAs

Mil: Fire Control & C2

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Air to Surface – Typical RangesEvolutionAir to Surface – Typical RangesEvolution

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NetworkNetwork

2020s F2T2EA Operational View –Systems and SoS relationships …2020s F2T2EA Operational View –Systems and SoS relationships …

UNCLASSIFIED

TOC

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C2 Node

Unclassified

ADF Air Armament IOCs

70s 80s90s 00s

Future

10s

MK 82 SEHD

MK 82 SE LD

MK36 Destructors

MK 41 Destructor

GBU-15

ACMI

AGM-142 Popeye I

GBU-12 PAVEWAY IIGBU-16

GBU-24 PAVEWAY III

MK 82 AIR

MU90

AGM-84 Harpoon

AIM-132 ASRAAMAIM-9L/M Sidewinder

AIM-9X Sidewinder

AIM-7M SparrowAIM-120B/C AMRAAM AIM-120D AMRAAM

MK 84 LDGPGBU-10 PAVEWAY II

M117 750lb

AGM-88B/E ARM

AGM-158 JASSM

AIM-9B Sidewinder

BDU-57/58/60Laser-Guided Training Round

MK 83 LDGPMK 82 LDGP

AGM-154C JSOW

Matra 550 Magic

JDAM-ER

Prior

JDAMs

AGM-88 HARMAustralian

Tested but no IOC

Kerkanya

F-111CCanberraP-3B/C

Mirage III

F/A-18A/B F/A-18F EA-18G F-35A

P-8E-7

HawkAP-3CF-111C

BLU-109

FMU-139/143

M904/905 FMU-54 Saga

Matra 530

DB 110 SAR

GBU-39/53

SDB I / II

Armed RPA

IOC

Tech Refresh / P3I

MK 46 Torpedo

Guns

AGM-114 HellfireSAL Rockets

DSTO Glide Test Vehicle

Staggered TER

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“5th Gen” Planned Air Force & Weapons

Bird, SQNLDR S., 2014, 6th generation counter– air missile architecture, Cranfield University, UK, July 2014 used a modified version of Tirpak J.A. See

http://www.airforcemag.com/magazinearchive/pages/2009/october 2009/1009fighter.aspx

Jet Fighter Counter‐Air Missile Generations

•RF Semi Active•IR Rear Aspect 

•Low G•Point Fuze

•HE WH•WVR

•Supersonic2nd Gen

3rd Gen

4th Gen

5th Gen

6th Gen

40‐50’s 60‐70’s 70‐80’s 80‐00’s 10‐20’s 2025+1st Gen

•Supersonic Aero•BVR

•Higher G•Pro Nav Guide

•Prox Fuze

•Active RF•Data Link

•ECCM•IR All Aspect

•Digital Electronics •Shoot Down•Imaging IR

•Optimal Guide•Hi‐Off Boresight

•Partial IM

•Ram‐Rockets•2‐Way Data 

link•GPS

•Adv. ECCM?•Dual Pulse?

•Adv Explosive•CLO?

•Dual Mode?•LO?

•Full IM?

•Hypersonic?•BMD Capable?•SEAD Capable?

•Miniature?•Extreme Agility?

•Extreme Range?

•Swarming?•DE Warhead?

•Hit‐to‐Kill?•VLO?

•Adv. Network?•Open Arc?

•Plug & Play?

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D 1400 “Fritz X”

Unclassified

Air Armament & Warfare Epochs

1900AD

Future

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VT and Inter

valometer

DestructorsA-S Unguided

Electronic FMU-139/143

Mechanical M904/905

Fuzes

A-Su Torpedo

A-A and A-G Guns

A-S Guided

A-A Guided

Variable Yield W/H

GBU-10 LGB

0. Ancient and

post-classical

I. Early Modern Machine Guns and

Armed Aircraft

Munitions Effectiveness JMEManuals JMEM V1.0 Integrated Cyberspace

Rifles and MGs

JMEM V2.0 GEMSO V1.0

Industrial Age Digital Computers / Information AgeMechanical / Analogue / human ‘computing’

Space Age

NK 2.0 SCSE Timor IraqGulf War IVietnamAmerican Civil War WWIIWWI

II. Late Modern Subsonic & Manoeuvre

with unguided / EW

III. Semi-active supersonic

Guided Weapons with EW & AI

IV. Active GW w Data Links

GPS/EW & AI Systems

VI.+ Joint Hyper SpeedNetworked Plug & Play Enterprise

with Cognitive EW & ASI FoS

V. Joint Fires NCW P2P

with EW & AGI SoS

AfghanNK

1975 2000 20251925 1950 2050

0.   Ancient and Post‐Classical ‐Mediterranean / Invasions from Central Asia / Rise of Charlemagne and Islam / Middle Ages / European Renaissance with Edged Weapons and 

Gunpowder from the Far EastCopper Age 3300 BCE to first use of hand‐held air armament in Libya in 1911.

I. Early Modern Machine Guns and Armed Aircraft ‐Industrial Age Warfare with machine guns and first Armed Aircraft / Tanks with Radio Comms

1911 to the Rise of Hitler 1933

II. Late Modern Subsonic and Manoeuvre with (mostly) Unguided Weapons & EW –with first active Comms/Radar EW / Ballistic Missiles / Passive IR / RF Guided Weapons / Atomic Energy

1933 to the Space Age 1957

III. Semi‐active supersonic guided weapons with EW and first Laser/ARM AI seekers –IR / RF / Electro‐optic / Lasers / Anti‐radiation  / first Low Observable aircraft ‐ One Bomb / One Target

Space Age 1957 to MIL‐STD‐1763 and Gulf War I 1991

IV.  Active guided weapons with Insensitive/Penetrator Mun, Data Links, GPS & EW –Multiple Targets per Pass / MIL‐STD‐1760/3014/6016 in mostly Permissive Air with Space‐based Assets ‐

Gulf War I 1991 to Afghanistan / Gulf War II 2003

V. Joint Fires Network Centric Warfare Peer to Peer in Information Domain SoS‐Armed RPAs / LO tactics / Bidirectional Weapons P2P Data Links, Cooperative Engagement, EW, Cyber and AGI –

2003 to  2025

VI. Joint Hyper Speed Networked Plug & Play Enterprise FoS ‐First Full Armed Autonomy / Swarming NEW / VLO/EMS tactics / Cognitive EW and ASI / Integrated Cyber / Directed Energy ‐ 2025 to  2035 +

Air Armament & Warfare Epochs

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Unclassified

Air Armament & Warfare Epochs

1900AD 1975 2000 2025

Future

Epoch OAircraft + hand-

held land-sea based Guns

/ EO

Uncontested!

NK 2.0 SCSVietnamAmerican Civil War E Timor AfghanIraqGulf War IWWIIWWI

1925 1950

0. Ancient and

post-classical

II. Late Modern Subsonic & Manoeuvre

with unguided / EW

III. Semi-active supersonic

Guided Weapons with EW & AI

IV. Active GW w Data Links

GPS/EW & AISystems

I. Early Modern Machine Guns & Armed Aircraft

VI.+ Joint Hyper SpeedNetworked Plug & Play Enterprise

with Cognitive EW & ASI FoS

V. Joint Fires NCW P2P

with EW & AGI SoS

Epoch IIAircraft Types EO Intervalometer (Mechanical Fuze Options with VT) & SAFE ARM

Contested 2 Nm

Bombardiers devise CEPs (50% of Bombs)

Within Visual/Radar Range

Epoch IAircraft + EO

Dispenser

Integrated Guns & EO Impact Fuzes

Contested

Line of Sight

Epoch IIISupersonic Aircraft Types Common EO Bomb Racks

EO w Mechanical Fuze Options with VT / SAFE ARM

Contested 5 Nm

MIL-STD-1763

RF/INS & Rear Aspect IR EW & SEMI-ACTIVE AI Mid

Course Guidance

Precision vs Accuracy

Epoch IVDigital Aircraft Types Smart

EO Bomb Racks

IM EO w Electronic Fuze Options & Prox Sens / SAFE ARM

Contested 20 Nm

INS / GPS Aided

MIL-STD-1760 / Data Links

Beyond LOS / INS / EW/EA Imaging IR & ACTIVE AI Mid Course

Guidance

JMEM V1.0

One Bomb / One Target

Epoch VSupercruise Federated Aircraft Armed RPAs

/ Pneumatic Bomb Racks w JMPS & UAI Adapters

LO tactics / Full IM EO Miniature Munitions w UAI, Fuze Options & Prox Sens / SAFE

ARM

Joint Fires / Contested 50Nm

Integrated GPS-Aided Munitions

NCW / MIL-STD-1760/3014

Bi directional MIL-STD-6016

EW/EA/ECCM & ACTIVE AGI Mid Course Guidance

JWS 2.0

Multiple targets / Pass

Epoch VI+Enterprise Autonomous Vehicles

Smart Pneumatic Bomb Racks w Aircraft UAI OSA / Autonomy

VLO/EMS tactics / Full IM EO Min Mun w UAI, NCW, Variable Yield Warhead/Fuze Options & Prox Sens / Autonomy / SAFE

ARM

Joint Effects / Contested 200 Nm +

Robust GPS-Aided Everything

NEW MIL-STD-1760 /FULL UAI

Plug & Play MIL-STD-6016 +

All Aspect ACTIVE ASI / SWARMING NEW / Mid Course Guidance with No

Escape

LVC: Cyber & Directed Energy

JWS 3.0 with ASI / ESM/EW/IW Control & Exploit

Penetrating Counter Air & StrikeIndustrial Age Digital / Information AgeSpace Age

2050

NK

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NATIONAL               INTERESTS & OBJECTIVES

NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY

AUSTRALIAN MILITARY STRATEGY & JOINT CAMPAIGN

AIR POWER EFFECTS

CORE AIR POWER ROLES, JOINT WARFIGHTING FUNCTIONS & MISSIONSForce Application: Control of the Air  Force Application: Strike  Force Projection: Air Mobility 

Intelligence,  Surveillance & Reconn

OffensiveCounter Air

StrategicAttack

Close AirSupport

AirInterdiction

Anti‐surfaceWarfare

Air LogisticSupport

AirborneOperations

DefensiveCounter Air Anti‐submarine

WarfareElectronicWarfare:                         

ES/EP & EA/ARM

Information Warfare /             Cyber

Air‐to‐airRefuelling

AeromedicalEvacuation

ISR

JOINT WARFIGHTING FUNCTIONS & ABILITIESCommand & Control Situational Understanding Force Protection  Force Generation & Sustainment 

Air CampaigningAir Base 

ProtectionJoint Personnel 

RecoveryForce Generation & Capability 

DevelopmentForce Preparation& Sustainment

Battlespace Management

Defensive Cyber Operations

Air & Space Systems Support

Combat Support

Operational Support

International Engagement

Information Warfare

EA: ES/EP / IW/CyberEA: ES /EP IW/Cyber

EW: ES /EP / IW/Cyber

The House of Air Power Futures