intuicyjne zarządzanie przedsięwzięciem copyright, 2001 © jerzy r. nawrocki...
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Intuicyjne zarządzanie Intuicyjne zarządzanie przedsięwzięciemprzedsięwzięciem
Copyright, 2001 © Jerzy R. Nawrocki
[email protected]@put.poznan.pl
www.cs.put.poznan.pl/jnawrocki/pspwww.cs.put.poznan.pl/jnawrocki/psp
Doskonalenie procesów Doskonalenie procesów programowych programowych
Wykład 4Wykład 4
Doskonalenie procesów Doskonalenie procesów programowych programowych
Wykład 4Wykład 4
J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów..
IntroductionIntroduction
.. Project planning .... Project planning ..
J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów..
IntroductionIntroduction
Time & defect recordingTime & defect recording
Coding strd+Size measuremnt+PIPCoding strd+Size measuremnt+PIP
Size estimating + Test reportSize estimating + Test report
Task & schedule planningTask & schedule planning
Code & design reviewsCode & design reviews Design templates Design templates
Cyclic dev.Cyclic dev.
BaselineBaseline
PlanningPlanning
QualityQuality
CyclicCyclic
J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów..
IntroductionIntroduction
When to plan?When to plan? Always!Always!
J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów..
IntroductionIntroduction
begin .. end
500 LOC500 LOC
J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów..
Plan of the lecturePlan of the lecture
• IntroductionIntroduction
• Delphi methodDelphi method• Schedule estimatingSchedule estimating• Progress trackingProgress tracking• Risk managementRisk management
J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów..
Delphi methodDelphi method
Rand Corporation, Boehm’81Rand Corporation, Boehm’81
• A few experts individually A few experts individually produce effort estimates.produce effort estimates.
• A Delphi process is used to A Delphi process is used to reach a consensus. reach a consensus.
PythiaPythia
J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów..
Delphi methodDelphi method
1. Experts get the 1. Experts get the specificationspecification and an and an estimation formestimation form
2. They meet for 2. They meet for discussiondiscussion (project goals, (project goals, assumptions, estimation issues)assumptions, estimation issues)
3. Each expert 3. Each expert anonymouslyanonymously lists the lists the taskstasks and and estimatesestimates the size the size
4. The estimates go to the 4. The estimates go to the estimate estimate moderatormoderator. He tabulates the results and . He tabulates the results and returns them to the experts.returns them to the experts.
The Delphi procedureThe Delphi procedureThe Delphi procedureThe Delphi procedure
The estimateThe estimate
moderatormoderator
J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów..
Delphi methodDelphi method
Estimator: Jerzy Nawrocki Date: 22.06.1999Estimator: Jerzy Nawrocki Date: 22.06.1999
Project: Sorting routineProject: Sorting routine
The estimates from the 1st round:The estimates from the 1st round:
e e EE MM e e e e
0 20 40 60 80 1000 20 40 60 80 100
e - estimates, e - estimates, EE - - your estimateyour estimate, , MM - - median estimatemedian estimate
Your estimate for the next round: ......... Hours.Your estimate for the next round: ......... Hours.
A rationale for your estimate: ............................................A rationale for your estimate: ............................................
........................................................................................................................................................................................
J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów..
Delphi methodDelphi method
5. The experts meet to discuss the results. 5. The experts meet to discuss the results. They review the They review the taskstasks they have defined they have defined but but notnot their their size estimatessize estimates..
6. The procedure is repeated from step 3 6. The procedure is repeated from step 3 until the estimates are acceptably nearuntil the estimates are acceptably near
The Delphi procedureThe Delphi procedureThe Delphi procedureThe Delphi procedure
The estimateThe estimate
moderatormoderator
J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów..
Plan of the lecturePlan of the lecture
• IntroductionIntroduction• Delphi methodDelphi method
• Schedule estimatingSchedule estimating• Progress trackingProgress tracking• Risk managementRisk management
J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów..
Schedule estimatingSchedule estimating
Size
Effort Calendar
Schedule
Availability factor
J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów..
Schedule estimatingSchedule estimating
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 [h]10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 [h]
1w1w 2w2w 3w3w 4w4w 5w5w 6w6w 7w7w
Task 1 Task 2 Task 3
J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów..
Schedule estimatingSchedule estimating
Plan ActualWeek Direct
hoursCumulativehours
Directhours
Cumulativehours
1.06 20 208.06 25 45
15.06 15 60
Project: ColorMap Data: 23.05.1999Project: ColorMap Data: 23.05.1999
J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów..
Schedule estimatingSchedule estimating
Plan ActualTask Hours Cumulative
hoursWeek Data
Detailed design 20 20 1.06Coding IO 25 45 8.06Coding graph 15 60 15.06
Project: ColorMap Data: Project: ColorMap Data: 23.05.199923.05.1999
J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów..
Plan of the lecturePlan of the lecture
• IntroductionIntroduction• Delphi methodDelphi method• Schedule estimatingSchedule estimating
• Progress trackingProgress tracking• Risk managementRisk management
J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów..
Progress trackingProgress tracking
ProblemProblem: how to track a progress : how to track a progress when a sequence of tasks is when a sequence of tasks is rearranged? rearranged?
Earned ValueEarned Value Method: Method:
• Each task is assigned a number of Each task is assigned a number of credit points.credit points.
• To earn the points assigned to a To earn the points assigned to a task, the task, the task must be completedtask must be completed..
• The points reflect ‘The points reflect ‘timetime complexitycomplexity’ ’ and are and are normalisednormalised to 1000 points. to 1000 points.
T1T1 T2T2
T1T1T2T2
J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów..
Progress trackingProgress tracking
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1 2 3 4
Weeks
Cu
mu
lati
ve E
V
Actual
Planned
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1 2 3 4
Weeks
Cu
mu
lati
ve E
V
Actual
Planned
Earned Value MethodEarned Value Method
J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów..
Progress trackingProgress tracking
Plan ActualWeek Direct
hoursCum.hours
Cum.EV
Directhours
Cum.hours
Cum.EV
1.06 20 20 2508.06 25 45 670
15.06 15 60 1000
Project: ColorMap Data: 23.05.1999Project: ColorMap Data: 23.05.1999
J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów..
Progress trackingProgress tracking
Plan ActualTask Hours Cum.
hoursEV Week Date EV
Detailed design 20 20 333 1.06Coding IO 25 45 417 8.06Coding graph 15 60 250 15.06
Project: ColorMap Data: Project: ColorMap Data: 23.05.199923.05.1999
J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów..
I’ve forgotten about
task Tj !!!
Progress trackingProgress tracking
Adjusted EV:Adjusted EV:
New_EVNew_EVii= x1000= x1000timetimeii timetimejj + + time timekk
J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów..
Progress trackingProgress tracking
Plan ActualTask Hours Cum.
hoursEV Week Date EV
Detailed design 20 20 200 1.06Coding IO 25 45 250 8.06Coding graph 15 60 150 15.06Writing report 40 100 400 29.06
Project: ColorMap Data: Project: ColorMap Data: 23.05.199923.05.1999
J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów..
Plan of the lecturePlan of the lecture
• IntroductionIntroduction• Delphi methodDelphi method• Schedule estimatingSchedule estimating• Progress trackingProgress tracking
• Risk managementRisk management
J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów..
Risk managementRisk management
What is a risk?What is a risk?
J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów..
Risk managementRisk management
Two approaches to risk
Reactive ProactiveProactive
J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów..
Risk description
Risk managementRisk management
ProbabilityProbability
ImpactImpact• catastrophiccatastrophic• criticalcritical• marginalmarginal• negligiblenegligible
J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów..
RMMM
Risk managementRisk management
RMMM = Risk Mitigation, Monitoring, and RMMM = Risk Mitigation, Monitoring, and ManagementManagement
Mitigation= minimising the probabilityMitigation= minimising the probability
Monitoring= observing factors/indicatorsMonitoring= observing factors/indicators
Management= if it happens ..Management= if it happens ..
J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów..
Risk analysis
Risk managementRisk management
IBM: > 100 risk factorsIBM: > 100 risk factors
For each risk factor an MMM plan.For each risk factor an MMM plan.
Risk management becomes a project in Risk management becomes a project in itself!itself!
Pareto analysis: the 80-20 principlePareto analysis: the 80-20 principle
J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów..
Risk managementRisk management
StrengthsStrengthsStrengthsStrengths
OpportunitiesOpportunitiesOpportunitiesOpportunities
WeaknessesWeaknessesWeaknessesWeaknesses
ThreatsThreatsThreatsThreats
Inte
rnal
Inte
rnal
Ext
erna
lE
xter
nal
PositivePositive NegativeNegative
J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów..
SummarySummary
• Work statement & SWOTWork statement & SWOT• Effort estimation & Delphi Effort estimation & Delphi
methodmethod• Schedule estimatingSchedule estimating• Risk & RMMM PlanRisk & RMMM Plan• Progress tracking, EV and Progress tracking, EV and
corrective actionscorrective actions
J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów..
Quality assessmentQuality assessment
1. What is your general 1. What is your general impression ? (1 - 6)impression ? (1 - 6)
2. Was it too slow or too fast ?2. Was it too slow or too fast ?
3. Did you learn something 3. Did you learn something important to you ?important to you ?
4. What to improve and how ?4. What to improve and how ?