Is African Population Aging?Global Perspective in Population Aging

アフリカの人口は高齢化しているか？発展途上国を含めた

世界的な人口高齢化の状況と今後の課題

Reiko Hayashi 林玲子

Linz co.ltd. ㈱リンツ

World Population 1998/99-2050

5,307,9436,939,286

1,969,809

593,111

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

1998/99 2050

Aged60+Aged-59

Pop

ulat

ion

(100

0)

5,901,054

8,909,095

228,977375,516

333,553

1,413,310

30,580

180,983

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

1999 2050

Least developed countries

Medially developed regions

More developed regions

1.More developed regions comprise all regions of Europe and Northern America, Australia/New Zealand and Japan. 2.Medially developed regions comprise all regions of Africa, Asia (excluding Japan) and Latin America and the Caribbean and the regions of Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia excluding least developed countries.3.Least developed countries are defined by the United Nations General Assembly as of 1994, include 48 countries of which 33 are in Africa, 9 are in Asia, 1 is in Latin America and 5 are in Oceania.

Population aged 60 years or older (thousands)

Rapid growth of older people in developing countries

Population Pyramid

More developed regions Less developed regions

Source : http://www.popin.org/pop1998/

Population Aged 60 and over in each region 1999-2050

1999

Oceania1%

Africa6%

Asia53%

Europe25%

America15%

2050

Oceania1%

Africa11%

Asia62%

Europe11%

America15%

Big Aged Countries in 2050

126

7545

15 13 7 627 29

440

324

9770

56 54 43 40 39

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

ChinaIndia

U.S.A.

Indonesia

Brazil

Pakist

an

Banglad

esh

Russia

Japan

Age

d P

opul

atio

n(60

yea

rs o

f old

er) i

n m

illion

19992050

Trend of Median Age

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1950 1998 2050

World Dev e lop pe d C ou n t ri e sDevelopping CountriesAfrica Asia EuropeCentral and South America Nor th A m e ri c aOceania

Rapid Process of AgeingGrowth of aged people ratio

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

World total Africa Asia LatinAmericaand the

Caribbean

Oceania Europe NorthernAmerica

times

10→ 22%

9→ 24%5→ 12%

8→ 22%

13→ 24% 20→ 35% 16→ 28%

The Aged Working More

Labour force among the aged 60 years or older

42

67

51 48

2217

2416

34

1912

8 713

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

World total Africa Asia LatinAmericaand the

Caribbean

Oceania Europe NorthernAmerica

%MenWomen

Replacement Population?

Change Changeper year

(1,000) (1,000)2000 2050

Russian Federation 146,934 121,256 -25,678 -514Japan 126,714 104,921 -21,793 -436Italy 57,298 41,197 -16,101 -322Ukraine 50,456 39,302 -11,154 -223Spain 39,630 30,226 -9,404 -188Germany 82,220 73,303 -8,917 -178Romania 22,327 16,419 -5,908 -118Bulgaria 8,225 5,673 -2,552 -51Hungary 10,036 7,488 -2,548 -51Poland 38,765 36,256 -2,509 -50

Total 1,455,135 1,216,061 -241,667 -4,833

Population

(1,000)

10 mostly decreasing population 2000-2050

Registered Foreigners in Japan

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998

Reg

iste

red

Fore

igne

r (po

pula

tion)

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%

1.40%

of to

tal p

opul

atio

n in

Jap

an

Registered Foreigner 　 Total % of Total Population in Japan

6,214 13,54044,941

57,411

52,76567,571 29,409

Japanese Opinion towards Internationalisation

86% 87% 85% 88% 86% 86% 85% 87% 85% 88% 86% 88%

14% 13% 15% 12% 14% 14% 15% 13% 15% 12% 14% 12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

pro con

Double Burden of Diseases

Social Security

Architectural and city planning solution

Employment

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