ises 2013 day 3 - professor mike sandiford (professor, university of melbourne) - crossroads to a...
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ENERGY IN the sun ”burnt” country
subtITLE“on Mountains, Carbon PAper & Kryder’s law”
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20 year halving
20 year DoUBLING
“the black decade”
GFC
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WERE WE NEED TO BEGDP GROWTH
> EMISSIONS Growth
GDP GROWTH < EMISSIONS GROWTH
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GFC
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production
consumption
ProDUction20 Tonnes Per CAP.
1.3 x NorWAY GAS+OIL ENERGY CONTENT
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ENERGY IN the sun ”burnt” country
subtITLE“on Mountains, Carbon PAper & Kryder’s law”
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RENEWABLE SCENARIOS - ZCA 2020 (BZE/UoM), UNSW, AEMO
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1 cup of coffee/DAY 21 MILL. peOPLE
10 years-
$270 billion
*18 Kroners
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CARBON TAX, $23/TONNE FROM JULY 2012
C-TAX
DAILy WHOLESALE PRICE LESS C-TAXDAILY WHOLESALE PRICE
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SO, It JUST ain’t Gonna HAPPEN ...
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ON Mountains, CARBON PAPER &KRYDER’s Law
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5 cm/yr50 million years
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VIC, 2009MW
5000600070008000900010000
28-Jan 29-Jan 30-Jan 31-Jan
Temperature
20
25
30
35
40
28-Jan 29-Jan 30-Jan 31-Jan
RR
P ($
/hou
r)
<0
10
100
1000
10000
28-Jan 29-Jan 30-Jan 31-Jan
$ - m
illio
ns
100200300400500600
28-Jan 29-Jan 30-Jan 31-Jan
15 yotta Joules = 50 million years =
energy RATE ==
1025 Joules1015 seconds1010 Watts10 gigaWatts
6000 m, Tibetan Plateau
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electricity demand RECORD - Victoria, Australia, 29/1/2009
~$550 mill.20% annuaL spot
MARKET rEVENUE, ....
GW
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HoMO “Geologicus”
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consumpTION4.5 Tonnes per Capita
what the ?
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WERE WE NEED TO BE
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2007forward
projection
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-15%
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PV penetration - SouTH AUS.0 -> 20% of households
2.5% redUCtioN
HOUR OF DAY HOUR OF DAY
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tHE energy-only market AT RISK
$1.1 bILL.
$0.47 bILL.
>50% REVENUEREDUCTION
HOUR OF DAY HOUR OF DAY
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the grid &the death spiral
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DEMOCRATIZING MoDernENERGY PROVISION
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ON MOUNTAINS,CARBON PAPER &KRYDER’S LAW,
•1988 - 20 MegaBytes ~ A$2,000
•2013 - 2 TeraBytes ~ A$200
•40,000 reduction in unit cost per byte PER year - for 25 years ...
& the IRRESISTIBLE PULL
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RE WILL HELP DEMOCRATIZEENERGY PROVISION
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green chemistry A NEW PRINTING REVOLUTION?
ROLL-OVERGUTENBERG
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..... THIS is not new news
“Most interesting of all ... is the question whether man, by his prodigious combustion
of coal …, is producing more [CO2] than can be eliminated by ordinary natural processes. If this production is excessive, the result eventually may be an unwelcome change in his atmospheric surroundings.“
Arthur Woodward,Foreword to “Man as a geological agent”, 1922.