Japan Air Self Defense Force

Air Staff College Seminar

Today’s Strategic Environment

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分類番号：Ｃ－１０－０８３ 作成年度：２０１５年度保存期間：１年未満 枚 数：１９枚保存期間満了時期：２０１６．３．３１ 開示判断：開示

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Security Environment Surrounding Japan

Washed ashore likely part of improved Taepodong-2 found at the Japan sea coast

鳥取県の位置を示す地図

（朝鮮半島を含む。）

Found location

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North Korea

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China

① Vessels sailed through Soya Strait. ② Vessels sailed through Tsugaru Strait.③ Vessels sailed through Tsugaru Strait from the Sea of Japan to the Pacific Ocean, and then transited OsumiStrait from the Pacific Ocean to the East China Sea, etc.④ AGI conducted round-trip passages in waters outside of the contiguous zone southeast of the Boso Peninsula.

Tokyo

Japan Sea

Okinawa

Senkaku islands

East China Sea

Incidents in the South China Sea: (eg.)standoffs between Chinese and Philippine vessels.

⑤ Vessels sailed the Pacific Ocean. - Osumi Strait- between the main island of Okinwa and Miyako island- southwest of main island of Okinawa

⑥ Vessels sailed within territorial waters around Kuchinoerabu-jima island, then sailed into contiguous zone of Kita-daitojima island.⑦ Around Senkaku islands:

- Since 2012, Government vessels intruded into territorial waters intermittently.- Since 2015, vessels carrying what appears to be cannons have repeatedly

intruded into territorial waters.- In 2016, a frigate entered the contiguous zone of the Senkaku ispands.

①

②

③ ④⑤

⑤

⑤

⑥ ⑦

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China

Taipei FIR

Median Line between Japan

and China

Shanghai FIR

Fukuoka FIR

Incheon FIR

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Russia

Tu-95

Photo by JASDF

Tu-142

A-50 Su-24

Photo by JASDF

Photo by JASDF

Photo by JASDF

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Gray zone situation tend to be increased and prolonged

“Gray-zone” situations/Creeping Expansions

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Cases at South China Sea (SCS)

Timeline

1950s: France withdraws from French Indochina↓

China occupies half of Paracel Islands(South Veitnam also advances to ParavelIslands)

↓1973 : U.S. withdraws from South Vietnam1974 : China occupies entire Paracel Islands

↓Mid-1980s: Soviet presence in Vietnam descreased

↓1980s: China advances to Spratly Islands1988 : China occupies six features in Spratly Ispands

↓1992 : U.S. withdraws from the Phillipines1995 : China occupies Mischief Reef

↓2000s: China advances to Southern SCS2012 : China gains de facto control over Scaborough

Schoal2014-: China conducts large-scale reclamation and

infrastructure building in SCS

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Cases at SCS: until 1990’s

IHS Jane’sを使用

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Cases at SCS: after 2000’s

Aug 2014

Nov 2014

On March 31, 2015, then U.S. Pacific Fleet Commander expressed concern describing China’s reclamation in the SCS as “Great Wall of Sand.”

On April 21, 2015, the Philippines Chief of Staff said that the reclamation “will cause tensions … due to its possible military purposes.”

Various reports point out possible those military base purposes by using photos of landfills or comments above.

Mar 2015

Existing Facility

Existing Facility

Existing Facility(Early warning radar)

Existing Facility Existing Facility

Existing Facility

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Cases at SCS: Spratly Islands

Feb, 2013

Mar, 2013

Aug, 2013

2013

Johnson South Reef

Cuateron Reef

Fiery Cross Reef

Mischief Reef

2013

Mar, 2014

Jan, 2015

Nov, 2014

Jan, 2015 Apr, 2015

Apr, 2015

Hughes Reef

Gaven Reef

Subi Reef

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Cases at East China Sea

No. of vessels identified within the territorial seaNo. of vessels identified within the contiguous

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CCG 2307

CCG : China Coast Guard ※ Government vessels carrying what appears to be cannons

Government vessels have intruded into territorial waters

CCG 2166 CCG 33115 ※ CCG 35115 ※ CCG 35102

CCG 35104 ※ CCG 31101 ※ CSOA 7008

CDoF : China Department of Fisheries

CSOA : China State Oceanic Administration

CDoF 33001 ※ CCG 33102 ※

CCG 33103 ※ CSOA 8003 CSOA 8027 CCG 2101 CCG 2102

CCG 44103 ※ CDoF 45036 CDoF 45005 CCG 2306 CCG 31239 ※

East China Sea: “Gray-zone” situations

31 3896

156

306

415464

571

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Numbers of Scrambles to Chinese aircraft

The Breakdown of Scrambles by Country

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Example

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“Gray-zone” situations in the Air

Four H-6 and a Y-8 conducted operations (2015)

Establishment of the “East China Sea ADIZ” was announced (2013)

A Y-9 and a Y-8 flew over

the Sea of Japan (2016)

Su-27 came near collision with

MSDF’s and ASDF’s aircraft (2014)

Chinese announced Su-30, J-11 and KJ-2000, etc. flew within the “East China Sea ADIZ” (2013)

Flew to the Pacific Ocean- Y-8 (2013)- Two H-6 (2013)- Two Y-8 and two H-6 (2013)- A Y-8 and two H-6 (2014)- Two Y-8 and a Y-9 and two H-6 (2014)- A Y-9 and two Y-8 and two H-6 (2015)- A Y-8 and a Tu-154 and four H-6 (2016)

Aircraft of the State Oceanic Administration intruded into territorial airspace around the Senkaku islands (2012)

The following aircraft flew:- Tu-154 (2013-)- Tu-154 and a Y-8 (2013)PLA Aircraft flew southward towards the SenkakuIslands (2016)

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Strengthening the Alliance

1978 : Formulation of the 78 Guidelines

1954 : Self-Defense Forces inaugurated1960 : Revision of Japan-U.S. Security Treaty

1993 : NPT withdrawal of North Korea(NK)/ NK Launched Ballistic missile (Nodong)

1996 : Taiwan Strait crisis

1996 : Japan-U.S. Joint Declaration on Security1997 : Revision of the 78 Guidelines (97 Guidelines)

2005 : Japan-U.S. Common Strategic Objectives2006 : U.S.-Japan Roadmap for Realignment Implementation2007 : Alliance Transformation

2015 : Revision of the 97 Guidelines (15 Guidelines)

2009 : NK nuclear test2010 : Senkaku boat collision incident2013 : NK nuclear test2014 : NK launched Ballistic missiles

1998 : North Korea launched Ballistic missile (Taepodong)

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Toward Strategic Defense Cooperation

Security & Defense Cooperation Document

Information Security Agreement

Defense Equipment & Technology Transfer Agreement

Acquisition & Cross-Servicing Agreement

United States Signed and entered into force in 1960

Signed and entered into force in 2007

The Mutual Defense Assistance was signed and entered into force in 1954 Established the Transfer of Military Technologies to the USA in 1983Established the Transfer of Arms and Military Technologies to the USA in 2006

Signed and entered into force in 1996Signed and entered into force the amended Agreement in 2004Signed amended Agreement in 2016

Australia Signed in 2003Revised in 2008

Signed in 2012Entered into force in 2013

Signed and entered into force in 2014

Signed in 2010Entered into force in 2013

United Kingdom

Signed in 2004Revised in 2012

Signed in 2013Entered into force in 2014

Signed and entered into force in 2013

Agreed to commence negotiation concerning the conclusion in 2014

France Signed in 2001Revision of annex statement in 2003Signed statement of intent in 2014

Signed and entered into force in 2011

Signed in 2015 Under consideration

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Efforts to Promote Cooperation for Peace

1 Dispatch of minesweepers to the Persian Gulf

2 U.N. Transitional Authority in Cambodia

3 U.N. activities in Mozambique

4 Relief for refugees in Rwanda

5 U.N. Disengagement Observer Force

6 International disaster relief activities in Honduras

7 Transport of supplies required for a disaster relief operation in Turkey

8 Relief for refugees in Timor-Leste

9 International disaster relief activities in India

10 Relief for refugees in Afghanistan

11 Cooperation and support activities based on the former Anti-Terrorism Special Measures Act

12 U.N. Transitional Administration in East Timor

13 Relief for refugees in Iraq

14 Relief for victims in Iraq

15 Transport of supplies for a disaster relief operations in Iran

16 Activities based on the former Iraq Humanitarian Relief Support Special Measures Act

17 International disaster relief activities in Thailand

18 International disaster relief activities in Indonesia

19 International disaster relief activities in Russia (in waters)

20 International disaster relief activities in Pakistan

21 Dispatch of Japan Disaster Relief Team in Indonesia

22 U.N. Mission in Nepal

23 Replenishment support activities based on the former Replenishment Support Special Measures Act

24 U.N. Mission in the Sudan

25 Anti-Piracy activities off the coast of Somalia and in the Gulf of Aden

26 International disaster relief activities in Indonesia

27 International disaster relief activities in Haiti

28 U.N. Stabilization Mission in Haiti

29 International disaster relief activities in Pakistan

30 U.N. Integrated Mission in Timor-Leste

31 International disaster relief activities in New Zealand

32 U.N. Mission in South Sudan

33 International disaster relief activities in the Philippines

34 International disaster relief activities in Malaysia

35 International disaster relief activities in West Africa

36 International disaster relief activities in Indonesia

37 International disaster relief activities in Nepal

Dispatch to the Persian GulfU.N. peacekeeping operationsInternational disaster relief activitiesActivities based on Special Measures Act

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Future Challenge