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/

/

2015 8 19

1

3-5 2

2020 2031

46.6% 2014 11.21.6 80.3 1.12

300 66264 2020

2031 CAGR 46.6% 500CAGR 49.7% 1535

1 740% 2 1C-6C

2C 3C 18 40%3 90%

4 133

2020 2031 CAGR 46.6%

EPS PE

PB 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E

26.39 0.37 0.59 0.86 71 45 31 8.49 44.87 0.41 0.44 0.47 109 102 95 20.83 58.46 1.18 1.44 1.76 50 41 33 13.64

Wind 2015 8 17

021-20262126 [email protected]

S1010514070001

0755-23835418 [email protected]

S1010512080011

1. (2015-06-08)

2. .4.0

(2015-04-02)

3.

(2015-02-02)

4.

(2015-01-29)

5.

(2015-01-09)

6.

(2014-12-31)

............................................................. 1

........................................................................... 1 11.2 80.3 ............................................... 3

..................................................................................................... 4 CAGR 46.6% ..................................................... 5

........................................................................... 6

................................................................................... 6 ................................................................................................................ 6 ................................................................................................................ 7

....................................................................................................................... 9 ................................................................................................................ 9

....................... 10

............................................................................................................................. 11

........................................................................................................... 11

............................................................................................................................. 11 ..................................................................................................................... 12

............................................ 12 ...................................................................... 13

......................................................................... 14

........................................................................................... 15

........................................................... 15 ................................... 18

.................................................... 21 ............................................ 25

.................................................................................... 28 ................................. 29

............................................ 33 ............................................................................. 35

30 .......................................... 35 ......................................................................... 36

THDS ..................................................................... 37 .................................................................................... 38

1 10 7 ....................................................... 2 2 3.4% ..................................................................................... 3 3 57.3% ................................................................................... 3 4 26% ...................................................................................... 4 5 6C ................................................................................................... 8 6 ..................................................................................................... 9 7 ................................................................................................ 16 8 2014 ............................................................................... 16 9 ............................................................................................ 16 10 2014 ................................................................................ 17 11 .......................................................................................... 17 12 ............................................................................... 17 13 ................................................................................... 19 14 ............................................................................... 19 15 .......................................................................................... 20 16 ( ) ............................................ 20 17 .................................................................... 21 18 4 ........................................................................ 21 19 ................................................................................................. 26 20 .......................................................................................... 28 21 .............................................................................................. 29 22 .......................................................................................... 30 23 .......................................................................................... 30 24 2014 ............................................................................. 30 25 2014 ................................................................................ 30 26 GYK .................................................................. 31 27 ............................................................................... 31 28 ...................................................................................... 32 29 .......................................................... 32 30 ...................................................................................... 34 31 .............................................................................................. 36 32 ....................................... 37 33 TFDS .............................................................................................. 40

1 .............................................................................................. 1 2 18 46 ............................................................. 1 3 100 ........................................................................ 2 4 46 ................................................................... 3 5 .................................................................................................. 4 6 1-5 .............................................................................................. 4 7 ......................................................................................................... 5 8 .............................................................................................. 5 9 2020 ............................................................ 5 10 ..................................................................................... 6 11 ......................................................................................... 6 12 6C ........................................................................... 7 13 ..................................................................................... 8 14 ............................................................................................ 9 15 ................................................................................... 10 16 ...................................................................................... 13 18 ...................................................................................... 14 17 ...................................................................................... 15 19 .............................................................................................. 17 20 ............................................................. 18 21 ........................................................................ 18 22 .................................................................... 18 23 .............................................................................................. 21 24 .......................................................................................... 22 25 .............................................................................................. 23 26 ...................................................................................... 23 27 .............................................................................................. 23 28 .............................................................................................. 26 29 .............................................................................................. 27 30 ...................................................................................... 27 31 .............................................................................................. 28 32 .............................................................................................. 30 33 ...................................................................................... 33 34 ............................................................................... 34 35 .............................................................................................. 35 36 .............................................................................................. 35 37 .............................................................................................. 36

38 .............................................................................................. 37 39 .................................................................... 39

1

2

1

3-5

2

7 18 20 20147 7 6

6 70 46 69 56 13320 100

1

7 7 6

6

2 18 46

4 1 5 4 9 7 5 7 6 15

2 1 2 2 4 5 5 7 6 9 5 1 4 3 8 4 2 3 2 7 3 2 3 3 5 4 7 5 5 8 2 2 3 3 5 4 1 3 4 6

3 1 3 2 6 4 5 4 2 12 6 3 4 4 11 3 1 3 2 6 3 1 2 2 5 3 0 2 1 4

6 7 7 4 10 2 1 2 1 3

70 46 69 56 133

2

3 100 19 25 3 8 3 10 4 8 5 0 2 7 7 15 1 5

2 7 6 8 2 5 0 6

2 2 0 5 4 9 0 3 15 21 5 9

10 7 18

103-5

7

1 10 7

46 30

1046

30

3

4 46 /

11.2 80.3 11.2 1.6 2001-2014

3.4% 2001 7 2014 11.22014 1.6

57.3% 14.3% 2014 11.21.6

2 3.4%

3 57.3%

80.3 1.12 20003.3% 2014 2.11 2000

-2014 2.2% 8423 6.06 2000-2014 3.5% 71.01 2000 -2014

3.2% 1.12 1605 2000 -2014 40.8%

4

5 ( ) ( ) ( )

2000 15,253 35,989 439,921 2001 15,756 44,877 449,921 2002 15,604 37,942 446,707 2003 16,320 38,972 503,868 2004 17,022 39,766 520,101 2005 17,473 40,328 541,824 2006 17,795 40,945 558,483 2007 18,299 42,471 571,078 832 2008 18,437 43,215 584,961 1576 2009 18,922 49,355 603,082 2728 2010 19,431 52,130 622,284 4,408 2011 19,590 52,838 649,495 6,792 2012 19,600 55,800 672,400 8,566 2013 20,835 58,820 688,042 9640 2014 21,100 60,600 710,100 11240

11.5% 1438

26% 55% 2012-2014

1438.3 11.5%1059.4 378.9

26.3% 62.1% 41.2%

4 26%

SCI Verkehr

2-3 3-5 20102011 2014 -2016

5% 10% 20%

6 1-5 CRH1 CRH2 CRH3 CRH5

48 48 15 3 30 2 6 120 45 1 120 120

5

240 90 3 240 240 480 180 6 480 480

7

1 2 3

4

5

CAGR 46.6% 3 +

20088 1605

3

300 66264 2015 1200 25%

300

66264

8

20 5.5

6 18

16.5 66

2020 2031 CAGR 46.6%500 CAGR 49.7% 1535

6000 36002020 2031

CAGR 46.6% 500 CAGR 49.7%1535

9 2020

6000 55% 3300 55% 1815 25% 454

3600 20% 720 30% 216 20% 43 2031 497

6

3-4

10

CRCC

3-4

3-4

7 40%

40%6

11

27.78%

22.22%

31.82% 11.11%

91.67% 0

32.86% 5.56%

0

71.42% 87.14%

22.85% 18.57% 10.00% 18.50% 5.71%

7

6C 6C

20132C 3C 18 40%

12 6C 6C

C1

10

200km/h~ 350km/h

C2

30

200km/h~ 350km/h

C3

1 200km/h~

350km/h

C4

120km/h

C5

C6

8

5 6C

5.36 6C1C 6C 3C

300 2000 20 /4 4C 400 /

2 17 1.36 5C5.36

13

3C

20 / :30-40 /

300 2000 4

4C: 400 / 34 ( 2 ) 1.36

9

5C:

14

90%90%

6

10

133 1818 133

3-5

15

TEDSTFDS

2013 55.2%

36.2%

33.8%

(THDS)( TFDS)

2014 THDS TFDS34.8% 25.1%

45% 35%

TFDS

2014 TFDS12.94%

(THDS)

5T2014 THDS

47.48%

TFDS

2014 TFDS35.58%

TFDS 2TTEDS

2014 TFDS8.63%

11

GYK

GYK

60%

wind

1

2

20202031 CAGR 46.6%

12

CAGR 50% 2014 11.21.6 80.3 1.12

300 66 2642020 2031 CAGR 46.6%

500 CAGR 49.7% 1535

1 7 40% 21C-6C 2C 3C 18 40%

3 90%4 133

+

+ +

2020 2031 CAGR46.6%

+ +2015-2017 EPS 0.37/0.59/0.86

2016 60 PE 35.4

13

16 / 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E

304 307 1,087 1,642 2,447 (%) -8.16 0.90 253.99 51.00 49.00

23 8 301 478 689 (%) -41.84 -65.87 3,772.29 58.76 44.25

EPS 0.03 0.01 0.37 0.59 0.86 EPS( ) 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.37 0.60

% 45.20 44.74 61.20 62.10 62.60 ROE % 4.04 11.32 12.59 12.21 13.04

PE x 1,035 3,032 72 45 31 PB x 41.8 37.7 23.6 15.5 10.4

EV/EBITDA 371 475 38 27 19

2015 8 17

2015-2020 CAGR 5.4%2015 18

39.214.9 72.1 2020

94 CAGR 5.4%

2-3 2013 55.2%

36.2% 33.8%

2090

2015 4 IPO 5.6 2015 45.6

202094 CAGR 5.4%

14

2015 IPO 5.62015-2017 EPS 1.18/1.44/1.76

2016 50 72

17 / 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E

311 363 443 547 682 (%) 13.05 16.83 22.05 23.50 24.68

94 109 132 161 197 (%) 7.07 15.85 21.56 21.61 22.06

EPS 0.84 0.97 1.18 1.44 1.76 EPS( ) 0.84 0.97 0.00 1.19 1.47

% 52.66 53.08 51.08 51.39 51.60 ROE % 21.33 11.32 12.59 12.21 13.04

PE x 77 67 60 49 40 PB x 16.5 13.9 6.4 5.7 5.0

EV/EBITDA 74 67 56 47 37

2015 8 17

2007THDS

TFDS

THDS TFDS 2006-2014 CAGR 3.2% 28.5%THDS TFDS 2014 63.4% 18.2%2006-2014 THDS TFDS CAGR 3.2% 28.5%

7 8

18 2014 THDS TFDS 34.8% 25.1%

18 2014 THDS TFDS 34.8% 25.1%

2015 IPO 2

2

THDS TFDS2006-2014 CAGR 3.2% 28.5%

15

18 THDS TFDS2015 IPO 2

2015-2017 EPS 0.41/0.44/0.47

18 / 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E

228 234 252 268 288 (%) 3.73 2.62 7.83 6.33 7.50

55 54 58 62 66 (%) 5.18 -1.15 5.97 6.86 6.71

EPS 0.39 0.39 0.41 0.44 0.47 EPS( ) 0.39 0.39 0.00 0.44 0.51

% 44.82 46.94 46.92 47.53 47.41 ROE % 18.70 11.32 12.59 12.21 13.04

PE x 127 129 125 117 109 PB x 23.8 20.7 11.2 10.2 9.3

EV/EBITDA 120 110 97 96 88

2015 8 17

1978 1993

2001 20102013 10 16

61.67%50%

12% 10% 10%

16

7

2012-2014 CAGR 41% 238%CAGR 41% 2014

238%

8 2014

9

17

10 2014

11

19

/

"

GSM-ROCU ITCS

MRM , , ,,

12

18

20

1958 TV-1 1973 TW-SA 2003 TB-3052 450M 2007 GSM-R

21

450M

CTCS0~4

ITCS LOCOTROL

712

22

712

1997

2002 3

19

13

11 11

14

20

15

16 ( )

21

17

41986

18 4

18 4 1078% 100% 13

23

10

22

10

10

3

3

24

23

25 1

13 15

2 3 2

26

20150 /

27

DKL

24

LCU

DK-1

25

JZ-7

2000 1

CJW DCF CJW-H

500

26

19

28

CRH1 CRH2 CRH3 CRH5CRH

CJW-12000

,

CRH3 , ,

CRH3

CJW-3000III(D)

DCF-2000

, , , ,.

TCPT CRH1 CRH3 CRH4 CRH5

. , ,1200mm, . , , .

27

CJW-3000CZ

29

CJW-3000

CJW-3000

CJW-3000III

CJW-LB CJW-2000

CJW-2000 8G K2 K6

CJW-1000 L

DCF-500 ~ 5000( )

DCF-500~5000

DCF-2000

DCE ()

DCE-H

, ,

CJW-M

FWUS-1

DCF-S CJW-1000

DCF-6000

DCF-2000

DCF-1000

CJW-H

8A 8G K1 K2 K4 K5 K6

CJW 5000

CJW 3000Z

CJW-9000 CJW-5000

CJW-3000

CJW-600

30

28

ZWJC-JL-01

YJJ-99-20

YJJ-99-20

YDJ-99

WSK-I KCF-II

KCF-

CJW-A

70

3000 1994

18 70 3000700

GE

20

31

XGT-A XGT-A XGT-A 13 15 16 17#

XJD-A

XJD-C XJD-B

JZD-C XWD-C

XWD-A SQT

29

XWS-C XDT-B

XCD-A XWS-B

JLH-A JWT-A JWH-A JWD-A MT-2 MT-3 ST

JZD-B JZD-B JWZ-A JZD-B JZD-B

TJK-B TJK-C

QCJ CCJ CCD

ZWJ-A

2000

3300 57.27%

21

2014 37% 36%2014 37%

30

60% 36%GYK

95%

22

23

24 2014

25 2014

GYK

32

GYK

CIR

GYK

31

,GYK

GYK GYK GIS

26 GYK

27

32

28

1400 2015

336 1400

29

+12 2007 4.2

2014 8000 2014 1000

6-8 2009

33

6000250032000

6000

GYK

33

1999 2013

34

30

34

WLCT-II

WLG 6699-CG SBUID

WHJ

GSM-R GSM-R GSM-R

WTZJ-I(CIR)

MMICIR LBJ

WTCQ-I TC-780 MCU

WBC-2

TAX CIR

DMIS

WJC

WZJZ TDCS

WTTJ-II

WTZ-4

DWJC-2 RS232

DWZJ-5

WYG / /

35

WYSC /

60%

2007 5000

60%

35

GYK

GYG-II DXF-I GYK GYK GYG-I GYG-III

GYK

GYK GYK GRC-II GYK GYK-W GYK-I GYK GYK GYK-UPS / GYK-I

GZB GZB

30 30 1985

36

JT-C(2000) JT-C(2000) JT-C(2000)

TJWX-2006-cl TJWX-2000

WTZJ-IIA CIR WTZJ-1A GSM-R

LTW495 LTW495 LTW495 LTW495 LTW495 LTP498A LTW495

36

2004 1996

70.01%

31

37

37

THDS

1996 4588

32

5T THDS50%

17

2014 THDS47.5%

38

HTK-104TW

TADS)

THDS

HTK-M101 RFID

HTK-499 ) / /

THDS-A

THDS-C

AEI-W1

HTK-196

38

AEI-S1 HTK-196 AEI

THDS THDS THDS

THDS

( 10 ) PID

THDS

THDS

TADS

TADS

TADSAEI

TADS

TADS

TADS TADS

1 kHz 10 kHz TADS

TADS

TADS

TADS

TADS

HTK-196

HTK-196

HTK-196ZHAEI

AEI AEI902MHz 928MHz AEI

HTK-196

HTK-196 AEIAEI

AEI

AEICPS

AEI

AEI

HTK-203

HTK-2003AEI

AEIAEI AEI AEI

AEIAEI

HTK-203

1998 9 1

39

39

TFDS HMIS 5T

TFDS

40

33 TFDS

41

( ) ( )

2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E

2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 228 234 252 268 288 84 114 323 305 302 126 124 134 141 151 48 58 63 67 72

44.82% 46.94% 46.92% 47.53% 47.41% 221 173 201 226 236

3 2 3 4 4 11 21 15 21 32

9 12 15 18 19 365 366 602 619 642 4.00% 5.28% 5.80% 6.80% 6.60% 90 93 134 175 216

35 36 39 43 45 0 0 0 0 0 15.54% 15.43% 15.50% 16.20% 15.71% 1 0 0 0 0

1 0 -4 -6 -6 16 25 26 28 28 0.54% -0.11% -1.74% -2.35% -2.11% 107 119 161 203 245

0 0 0 0 0 472 485 763 823 888 43 54 58 62 67 0 0 0 0 0

18.97% 23.12% 23.14% 23.33% 23.44% 108 77 98 104 105 21 10 10 11 10 46 46 49 44 43 0 0 0 0 0 154 123 147 147 149

64 64 68 73 78 0 0 0 0 0 9 10 10 11 12 24 24 31 33 35

13.87% 15.67% 15.29% 15.73% 15.51% 24 24 31 33 35 0 0 0 0 0 178 148 177 180 184

55 54 58 62 66 105 105 140 140 140

24.14% 23.25% 22.85% 22.97% 22.80% 51 51 218 218 218

( )( ) 0.39 0.39 0.41 0.44 0.47 294 338 586 643 704

6.8% 7% 5.97% 6.86% 6.71% 0 0 0 0 0

472 485 763 823 888

2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E

55 54 58 62 66 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 0 0 0 0 0 %

5 5 5 5 5 3.73 2.62 7.83 6.33 7.50 -35 -16 -11 -41 -32 -6.14 25.05 7.93 7.21 8.01

11 6 2 -2 0 5.18 -1.15 5.97 6.86 6.71 35 50 54 24 39 %

-1 -8 -46 -46 -46 44.82 46.94 46.92 47.53 47.41 0 0 0 0 0 EBIT Margin 23.80 25.18 24.32 23.15 23.76

0 0 0 0 0 EBITDA Margin 25.89 27.22 26.42 25.12 25.59

0 0 0 0 0 24.14 23.25 22.85 22.97 22.80 -1 -8 -46 -46 -46 %

0 0 202 0 0 18.70 17.20 12.46 10.01 9.75 -30 0 0 0 0 11.64 11.35 9.22 7.76 7.67 0 0 -11 -5 -5 %

-12 -11 11 8 9 37.76 30.41 23.22 21.85 20.75 -42 -11 202 4 4 13.87 15.67 15.29 15.73 15.51

-8 31 210 -18 -4 0.00 0.00 8.11 8.11 8.11

42

( ) ( )

2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E

2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 311 363 443 547 682 128 180 757 704 733 147 170 217 266 330 25 141 103 128 160

52.66% 53.08% 51.08% 51.39% 51.60% 364 338 397 520 638

5 8 8 8 11 22 39 34 58 95

15 21 26 37 42 538 697 1,290 1,410 1,625 4.70% 5.90% 5.80% 6.80% 6.10% 65 64 150 239 295

49 57 69 83 106 0 0 0 0 0 15.63% 15.69% 15.50% 15.20% 15.46% 19 16 16 16 16

1 -1 -9 -15 -14 5 6 8 9 11 0.22% -0.17% -2.11% -2.67% -2.11% 90 86 174 264 321

0 0 0 0 0 628 783 1,464 1,675 1,946 86 97 129 160 199 25 0 0 0 0

27.70% 26.59% 29.13% 29.26% 29.12% 65 113 125 149 198 21 27 19 22 23 93 142 131 167 206 0 0 0 0 0 183 255 256 316 404

107 123 149 182 222 0 0 0 0 0 13 14 16 21 25 4 4 5 5 5

12.01% 11.70% 10.84% 11.73% 11.29% 4 4 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 187 259 261 321 409

94 109 132 161 197 84 84 112 112 112

30.25% 30.00% 29.88% 29.42% 28.81% 122 122 652 652 652

( )( ) 0.84 0.97 1.18 1.44 1.76 441 525 1,203 1,354 1,537

0 0 0 0 0

628 783 1,464 1,675 1,946

2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E

94 109 132 161 197 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 0 0 0 0 0 %

3 3 3 3 3 13.05 16.83 22.05 23.50 24.68 -111 -22 -19 -121 -108 12.05 12.14 33.71 24.02 24.11

7 13 -6 -8 -6 7.07 15.85 21.56 21.61 22.06 -6 103 110 35 86 %

-3 -1 -89 -92 -59 52.66 53.08 51.08 51.39 51.60 0 1 0 0 0 EBIT Margin 30.76 29.30 28.04 28.01 28.47 0 0 0 0 0 EBITDA Margin 31.73 30.17 28.75 28.58 28.94

0 -25 0 0 0 30.25 30.00 29.88 29.42 28.81 -3 -25 -89 -92 -59 %

0 0 558 0 0 21.33 22.57 15.33 12.60 13.60 25 -25 0 0 0 14.98 15.44 11.78 10.26 10.86 0 0 -11 -11 -13 %

-12 -25 11 15 15 29.79 33.02 17.82 19.17 21.03 13 -50 557 4 2 12.01 11.70 10.84 11.73 11.29

4 27 578 -53 28 0.00 0.00 8.11 8.11 8.11

i

ii

612 6

12A

300500

20%

5% 20%

-10% 5%

10%

10%

-10% 10%

10%

CLSA group of companies

Z20374000

CLSA Singapore Pte Limited s.4A(1)CLSA Singapore

,CLSA Singapore1 33 25 2

34 27 3 3536

https://www.clsa.com/disclosures/ CLSA group, CLSA Americas CA TaiwanCredit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank /

[email protected].

CITIC Securities International USA, LLC - CLSA group of companies CLSA Americas, LLC 1934 15a-6 CSI-USA CLSA Americas

CLSA group of companiesCSI-USA CLSA Americas

CLSA (UK)2000 2005 19

2015

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