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Page 1: JOLHJ WJBCL tj - NBER...iii airif rlSbOffi atmibivibni syBil siinfl asvif bri ysrif svlovs 1 i1uoirf owi bni-aib assia oT sviisb B SIdBfDEll 91E StE noifqu1I1Jail0) fIO1-t)TIIJI l)flB

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= — c + (j — — )j' + — cJ

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L9f!0 fO JHfGLG2fTJJJA f JIG p9cfiOu OJ OAGLHLJJGJJf pouq fJI9f 12 [JOf HG9JfJI OL f JIG

(qG2bJfG fJIG 1126 111 \ jLOm j( fO j) uq in coLLG2boJJqGucG LGJ1CG2 f JIG cthiij Offfbflf

92 Jllbnf IJJG 9qqifioiJ o OAGLfflIJGIJf bojicA L9T2G2 f JIG IJGf JHfGLG2f L9f 0 fO bGLCGJJf

I9PTG 5 LGbOLf 2 f JIG MJJIIG2 O 2fG9qA 2f9fG ArLi9pJG2 fT2iJJ f JIG p920J!uG bojicA bJ'Lcmof

OJ 2OCJ9J 2GCJTLJf A fO Oflfbflf L0HJIJA IIJ9fCJI fJIG!L GLIJbjLjc1J COJ1JJfGLbLf 2 JOL f JIG J01J2

9GCOL MJfJJ fJIG GUJb!LJC9J bo2fMJi 9AGL9G luG L9fJO2 O OAGLUJJJGJJf qGpf fo onçbnç inrq

916: = 5 9 = 5 = 05 IJIG L9f10 OJ 0AGLIJIIJGHf connnthf Toll fO onçbiiç V 12 !ll L0HJJ

Page 31: JOLHJ WJBCL tj - NBER...iii airif rlSbOffi atmibivibni syBil siinfl asvif bri ysrif svlovs 1 i1uoirf owi bni-aib assia oT sviisb B SIdBfDEll 91E StE noifqu1I1Jail0) fIO1-t)TIIJI l)flB

itoirjq chçnLG P&PA p00w caGccw jjJJ COLLGUfJA MOLJCJH OJJ fJJ J206cGcf2 Jf J2 JJOBLGAGL bo2aJpJG o iuoqxij f JIG P.&GLtOW( o JJjOM oL !JoJJ-24&fioIwLA qGrnoL&bpJc2 (p1ccb&in wllq (}) (JduJOLIcbpJc GUCG(i 01, fJJG pp) pooh! urniuoquj !c P.f1c1JqI clcu cIrbçnLG p& I4L2( (Ito

1J1J (JIG OGi& 2GCJILJçA JJWd LIG1I 1,OL (JJLG6 LG9aouil: (j) rJJcLc&2eq pGJJGpc JGILGJ2 () JIICLG$J?Gq j1,G

EJ.JJL(; j LGboL412 4JJG qAnuc GJGC2 o qonppu1 LGIJ41G JGAGJ oi 2OcpJj 2GCIJLJ41 A

3.1).

964119J1A LJ2G: 41JJG J0HGL JJOLJSOH 0J L6411L662 MOLJC2 410 !HCLGfJ2G IIJqJAJqITIIJ 2JAJIJg (266 L!11LG

2GCJJLJ41 A b&Arn611412 6011162 J0JTf p6691126 LG41JLGG2 JJAG J0JJGL 4IJJGH 4416 c9b!fJ 2410(41 JJJ9A

0j LG41JLGG2' I LG2fTJ4I2 41411941 J (JO 1101 LGb0L4 6L6 J 2J1UM 41J1941 ft 414116 L126 111 9LG.941G 20C49J

2GCJTLJ4IA COIJIG2 911 1116116926 III p6IJ6JJ412 b6L L6L66 92 O1)J)026(j 41() 9 11426 411 41JJG JJJ1J1J6L

116911JA JoLçA b6LC6IJ41 L40416 JJOM6A6L 441941 41JJJ2 6XbGLJ11JGJJ4I 9221111162 41J1941 '11 1416 11126 LII 20619J

119416 111262 pA 9J11J0241 @0(3 p9212 bornça rnq f6 c&biwj JJ6L GfflCJ6IJCA 1111141 04 J941)OL 4191J2 p

11941 io o oA6LIJIJJ6IJ41 qGpf 410 CDL ccTmtj 410 y 1116 towj 6414166.41 42 drnçc J9L6: 1116 411416L6241

13 boi.ceuç 410 2 l)6LC61141 041 CDb JJ0Jq1IJ 601124191141 4141J6 q6moi9bpJc 241L11C4111LG 91J(J J1A611 9

OC19J GCflLJ4?t 1JT1L6 4•'} L6bOL41 2 41JJ6 Jmb94 041 A9L?il11 206111j 26611L141A 611641 2 41110111

91141161b9416q'

b6Li0q 11 Gdfl9j 111616111611412 G9CJJ A691L 9221111J& 4111L41JJ6L 41 p941 41416 bojicA CJ19JJ6 12 4111jjA

L!11L6 tj: 416gqA 2419416 Imb9cc 041 COAGLHHJG1141 D6PI

0 052 02 0S2 0A2104

5•5 405

403

se 1045•9

102109

3.5

3•4 103•9 408

39 108

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Page 32: JOLHJ WJBCL tj - NBER...iii airif rlSbOffi atmibivibni syBil siinfl asvif bri ysrif svlovs 1 i1uoirf owi bni-aib assia oT sviisb B SIdBfDEll 91E StE noifqu1I1Jail0) fIO1-t)TIIJI l)flB

30

llLG f 3: ferqA 3Jj?G Jmbwcf O, 2!J 26d11L!fA

32

N

32

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0 004 003 003 004 002088

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103

103

102

100

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109

108

0 004 005 G 003 004 002

L!HLG f 5: yqlcTafmGIJt tO BIeG !11 C0AGLHmGJ4 DGPt

38592

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3j345 -33 /330 /3 3

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Page 33: JOLHJ WJBCL tj - NBER...iii airif rlSbOffi atmibivibni syBil siinfl asvif bri ysrif svlovs 1 i1uoirf owi bni-aib assia oT sviisb B SIdBfDEll 91E StE noifqu1I1Jail0) fIO1-t)TIIJI l)flB

— - acre

-- are --

---- eaor --

act

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oro aco,r

LO o_r

.1 aar.o I! IHill r!!IHII!I 11111111 -+—*H—*+.

t —, —

iiims IBbo2 ru sai,fl of trisnifuLbA :1.f ujiT

Jnsmirnqxs sill .boiisq TBS nsf i isvo Irffooma frissisq I of qcio lo frus3lsq moil

bn OI rff HssWf9d ylisbis srff of ais1anruf s-III lo ioiv6119d 91ff 91Ufqw) Ir!uoi fiElsnsd f)9aI1OTMII nioil 91II0) 9i1 91ff IIi furuff 1svswod smua8 H .O@1 yIis of O8@f

sub illhisw lo sriib ssiifsi iii oii Ithfini qiwila suif ai uonsrruorusifq nifasistrui sn() .alsvsl

IBfiqu) sift iii JHuI)sh siLt qii hssqa of a1fiow rfsirfw ratflsnsd bsas1D1Ii 10 ni niairfq suff of

.?FIota

lo s1611a siT f ui saiu 6 lo -tfts suit aworla siuiI .uoitqmijarioC) rIem1ri9voD

rn sniIsb frr8sl1inia 8 ai sisrfT •qcio lo fHsslsq O of O moil HOifqffuIThfIO3 ffIsffufIlsVOg

i ii saii sill tsaIEk) of lfnsisffiua TLiiI ton asob xIoifqnuJano) sfuvnq ssrna )bofa Iitiq& silt

oiiiHEI .)hOWSffluilI ffl9fJ 9VifffH9as1q9I L6rioiffIsvHoa 91ff fri aiwno trIvi of fawttiro3 Hi

Hi sni1sb u if tiw bstioaaii ai Hi san u llwhiqms trIt worla (,O(I) nutIIIM-I-uifB8 hnui

wo11 ot ti gaifaucbE d Ishom airif rifiw atsth sasuff srufqw bluos snO .sfwr if fwoi 51ff

i asujboiq Hi saii u rabnuia fi ai Isboin sift if fiw IsvifnistIA .rffwoTg aionsobns iol

.stBfa yhBsta W5H Suit of noiJ!afuclt silt nolui sf-wi rIfwoi suit Hi 9Hil99I)

II;

Page 34: JOLHJ WJBCL tj - NBER...iii airif rlSbOffi atmibivibni syBil siinfl asvif bri ysrif svlovs 1 i1uoirf owi bni-aib assia oT sviisb B SIdBfDEll 91E StE noifqu1I1Jail0) fIO1-t)TIIJI l)flB

L!HLG JQ LGb0L 4IJJG 2fGqA Jrnb9cç 0U 0 .0AGLHflJGIJ4 qGpf cIJq 0T 20GJJJ 2GGIILTA

MJJGLG \ =

(++2) =

mbj2. LGbpJcG JJG GqA J4G LG2OITLCG coil inu in Gdfnr4Jon (T2 )

MJJJ (2T) nq Jmbo2G GdrniJ JG MOLJq LJ4G \' JHJJpJ1JA 40 mocjii PG 2fGJ(A ifc

10 COIJAGI4 2JJG cjocq GCOIJOJJJA o i mjj obGH ccoiom 2irnbJA Lcbpirco cdnjou ()

= — — i +(—-i-j (2J)

IAOLJ JIJGLG4 LJ1G 4JJG GCOJJOfflA-MJ(JG LG0HLCG C0H24LHJJ GG0HJG

IJG 0LGJH b0JfJ0iJ 2fJIJJJJJ 4JJ9 Ic J h02!pJG O OLL0M JJJ JGJJ ¶L09 Jf fJJG

I ! GfA O Gx4GIJq 4.JJG JJJ&JA2J f() cJJG c oi nnqj obcii Gcoijoiiik FG12 P' 4JG GCOIJOJJJA

' b°H EGC42 Ju biuLJHLG 1: GJqA jrnbcc O C0AGLIJIIJGIJ C0I11mbc!01J

05 055 05t 050 050 03 05 035 054 030 059 03032

.1042

02

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Page 35: JOLHJ WJBCL tj - NBER...iii airif rlSbOffi atmibivibni syBil siinfl asvif bri ysrif svlovs 1 i1uoirf owi bni-aib assia oT sviisb B SIdBfDEll 91E StE noifqu1I1Jail0) fIO1-t)TIIJI l)flB

(;9hpJJLG JJG GGC42 O, rnGqic9LG Jf MOJTJq 9J20 PG JJJ2GLG2fJIJ O COIJ2JqGL 441G /AGJI9LG GIG(42

VHOIJGL T)o22rpiJJçA MOfJj pG O J1iO(JG 2bGHqJu OIJ I91P !11 01(IGL 1O IIJOLG GXbJT(:JJA

G bo22JpJG o IJJOLG 9CCflL9GJ c9brLG JJG GHLLGJJ4 qijGmm9 OAGL ojq 9G GJJ4JGUJGIJP

on qGmoL9bpic 2LHCJ11G ItoLj iiA oiiç aonj JmGflA qoJJJ 2O J oirjq

poorn GxbGLJGIICG p2 jJoIim bGLJoq o piji GLiJ!k nJq 2JJGJJ JG4JJJ 44JG

IJoLJ-a194JornJLA qGmouthpic 2LJTCITLG i 12 bo22JpJG OL Gx9uJbJc cthçr1LG fJJG p9pA

j,jyrnA GXfGH2JOU2 boipj bGLP9b2 4JJG WO24 JJJ4GLG2!IJ Monjq p O 9JJOI1 OL 9

JIJ1IIC9IJ rnq bpnT2ipJG GjGC2 on c9b1rj JupGu2Jç2 911q LG9J IIJçGLG24 L9462

JAGL9G JGH2 o I!T9 IAO4c 9JJ LGç!LGIJJGJJp C0AGLHWGI qp cnq 2oc19J 2GcnL14?A JJ9AG

ppurrrn GcoIJomA jo moqj 12 Ac;LX L99JG AGç bGLmJ2 iuqwqnj2 o JJ9AG LG9JJapJC

luG L9JJJGIIOLJ o pi brb GIJJG2 JJG-C2CJG GJJ9PJOL itjirn qAinnnic GHGL9J Gdfl!-

oUcJnqLJ ff6IJJ9LJ

2flp2rIJ!9f

91Jq 2JxA CGJJç2 pG iiubc o LJ2G JU 20C!9j 2GC1JLJ oil IJGf 0LGJJ1 922Gf2 12 2JIJ1JJ9LJ2

y (JOJJ9L LJ2G lIT OAGLIImGJJI qGp JG9q2 fO 9 qGCJJIJG 111 IJG OLGJIJ 922G2 O PGHGGIJ IA

E1JLG j: G9qA-9G Jmb9c O DP JJq OCJ9J GCHLJtA 111 JJG ObGil ECOHOUJA

o.e

—.1

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Page 36: JOLHJ WJBCL tj - NBER...iii airif rlSbOffi atmibivibni syBil siinfl asvif bri ysrif svlovs 1 i1uoirf owi bni-aib assia oT sviisb B SIdBfDEll 91E StE noifqu1I1Jail0) fIO1-t)TIIJI l)flB

011 29A1JJ 9L12JJJ tLOUJ fJJG I! -C?CJG 264i11) MOIJJ(J L9IJJG !110 GffG(4 OH LOI/4JJ L9G

9JJOPA OL G11OG11Ofl2 LOH4JJ ffiJ4JJJ11 911 G11OGHOH LOM4JJ G4JH JJG GC o bopcK

01 qiaçoJ4iO119LA X&4IIOJJ bILpd11J1LJ? 20c19J 2GCJIL!fX PJXG2 LJ119JJA iç UJJJJ JJJ4GLG4J11 fO

Page 37: JOLHJ WJBCL tj - NBER...iii airif rlSbOffi atmibivibni syBil siinfl asvif bri ysrif svlovs 1 i1uoirf owi bni-aib assia oT sviisb B SIdBfDEll 91E StE noifqu1I1Jail0) fIO1-t)TIIJI l)flB

32

= (c)

jLom fJJi2 Gdrnrf ion nq GdrnJf () !f J açLJJJfoLPMLq fO 2JJOM JJf

= j + +T(7+T)

[(c), + \J [VT (V+J\) }] iijiicp TmbjJG fpç i JAGIJ pA

IPGD 2flp2fifulfG fG 0LGL couqiçioir OL cou2nmhpou iu OL C'f0 opnu =

= [(c +

fO opnu

fO opin n GxbLG22jon oL 7npacTfnfG fJJG C0IJGCfHLGq 20J1Tf Toll J0L J !'f0 fJJG Op1GGçJAG

p = o jnq i 2ojnf!on 0L luG MfJHG rnicçon C0IJGCfITLG fp I.= VC 1PGU

= \ '3JQ\L

0L GdHJAJJGLJfJA

EL0WIPGGHAGJ0bGIPG0LGm: = (c')-J(J')T-; 1P'-(c-j =

( V\ ( +J\—IL )\—j

JTp1GCf fo fJJG pnqGf C0H2LJJIJf JAGII pA GdJHJfJOJJ () IPG E01.4C pA

=

J{6çTL66 D6C!OU bL0PI61I pXJIJJJG

ybbeuqx

Page 38: JOLHJ WJBCL tj - NBER...iii airif rlSbOffi atmibivibni syBil siinfl asvif bri ysrif svlovs 1 i1uoirf owi bni-aib assia oT sviisb B SIdBfDEll 91E StE noifqu1I1Jail0) fIO1-t)TIIJI l)flB

(V = T + a('_j(V)[+T (-r1+Jjc+J\) OL GdrnAJGIjJA

JJJGJJ 2f1paJJTfG JJJ pG OLqGL conqjpolJ tOL COJJflInbçJou o oprrn = {(cj +

vc = {(c) +[v'c]' + (J —

JOL J\T JJJ0 jJG GXbLG22JOU OL JG AJH6 nuqiorJ o opnu

JG COJJGCFJLG 2oJflçJOu OL j H2LPT1G pG rnthpq 2OJJTfIOJJ 0L 'ruq pG 0J1TJOJJ

I4JGLG j+T = tjjq j+J = [cc + (j — = [ + (j — )+J)]. 10 AGLJ

cj' + (j — = {1+J+T}ac

() — c+i[ + (— + (j T) C+TJ_ imbj?iu

¶JtJ 7, JtJJ qJ12 coIJ1Gcrn.G ruq JAGJJ 1ff = (2GG rpoAG)

(toL 1IJ rnqJAJqfflrJ pc !2 J A0L]CGL { ¶JIJq J LGçJLGG --j) coijn' jji j, =EL0mPGGDAGJ0bGITG0LGm = +J J)(j±J) iiJq

()- = + (T - 1[' + (' -

rrp]GCç ?0 JJG pirqç C0U2LJJJp !AGU P2 (Y IPG LOMC LG TAGJJ p?

= {(c +[cj + (j -

fl\OLJC6L D6COU bL0PI6m I,rxTmJG

p GdflJoD ()0Jf14i0IJ JoL LG4TLGG coiirmhpoi = !1T0 JJG L2 OLGL couqJçioIJ JAGJJ

IPG qJJ4GLGIJcG GdnJoLJ 0L ci rn GdrJc4 Jon ()i opnuGq p? iTp jnp1j 4JJG CoH1GGçITLGq

Page 39: JOLHJ WJBCL tj - NBER...iii airif rlSbOffi atmibivibni syBil siinfl asvif bri ysrif svlovs 1 i1uoirf owi bni-aib assia oT sviisb B SIdBfDEll 91E StE noifqu1I1Jail0) fIO1-t)TIIJI l)flB

— (+J).JIJçO 4JJG UL2 OLGL cOiJqJ4JOIJ IAGIJ pK GdthJç!OH (jj) rnq JJJ&JG 112G JJG JJ4 V' =

(J5) flp24iflG JJG Cou1GcflLGq OJITlJOIJ ,OL MOLJGL cO1JrTmb4Jou W)= J2 cou1GcnLGq 10 OpJuJ qGLGUCG Gdfffl!OJJ 0L qG2CLipGq rn cdnçion

EL0 JJ!2 GdfflJpoll wq GdfIJou (T3) in i 12 4O 2}IJOI1

Page 40: JOLHJ WJBCL tj - NBER...iii airif rlSbOffi atmibivibni syBil siinfl asvif bri ysrif svlovs 1 i1uoirf owi bni-aib assia oT sviisb B SIdBfDEll 91E StE noifqu1I1Jail0) fIO1-t)TIIJI l)flB

C9IJ AiM (DGCGIHPGL): jjp—y

[iii D!'°'q JJG4GL () M!OJJJ DGP W MCJ9TCJJ CLOII4P V1JJ64-

bOpGT dITHJL4GLI?. 'O11LIJJJ O ECOIJOIJJC2

[so] ciiq IPC1JJLq II (JJ) ocpçc 1rnbJJcTou2 OJ JG F!6CJG 11A-

AGM O ECOUOIJJIC flG2 35 ('prj?):

[] (T@2) QbfJmnm ioçp rn u V LcJtT/G oqj o C&b!"J Vm-

j (j&jj):

bGcJou2 o iinic iAJqGrJq2 9JJq D!T EJCOL iqii oIUUJ flG2{J opiJ j flJq J{opeJ4 y }JTJJGL (J JJJG JAiqGJJq-LicG BJJO EX

AJqG1JcG MBEIf Jt1ICL0GCOU0U31C2 VUIJ11JI 5: 53-3(Jf

[] BJIJ!' DOHJ p (j jpcaqirn Edfl!AJGucG: yu EAJfl!Ou o 11j rnq

Edn!o1T flIJqGL gJOHJJ ExbGcf!oll ECOUOmG4L!C ('ii): T202-T3TT

[1 J1IJCJJJL(J QJJAJGL 'f J1J CPLIG2 yjrn (j) 1LJ aoJfr!on -° D!a(,L(H(G

JiiCfj j3 (VbLTI): 553-5

[2] J9JJCJJ&L OHA!6L '1 (j) DGP DGIC!2 niq L!'T!4- H0L0H IOI1LU9J O b°

GM oi.jc)

{] flJLLO pOJ)G14 'r ¶rnq XA!GL (T2) ECOUOC CLOE4Jr

ECOUO g (oAGmpGL\DGcGmpGL): T O2 T T T H!II

[3] WJLLO OGL y (jj) iu C01GL1JmG11 OTJ2 MG JGrJp 1ornincJ o 0ji41CJ

(cmp.q flHJAGL214 bLG2 cJJJpuqG)

[s] V1TGLP(;JJ J9H 1 J'iJq PJJTLGH(G J<OJifCOJ, (T) D'-'" EJC1I boJc?.

aOI1LUJ O jOIJGrL?. ECOUOC j('jrj2'): jj-ff[TI V!AL! J{IO 9H /J1LJC CGL1GL (To2) JJJG pcjcrn o COAGLIIfflGH J3OH2 ¶JIJq

Page 41: JOLHJ WJBCL tj - NBER...iii airif rlSbOffi atmibivibni syBil siinfl asvif bri ysrif svlovs 1 i1uoirf owi bni-aib assia oT sviisb B SIdBfDEll 91E StE noifqu1I1Jail0) fIO1-t)TIIJI l)flB

iu 46 jLqçion O JLtU E!P6L (J1JJGA L4" ir)

[j] jopm rm (jt) 'JG-çlcJG AJ1J ¶JiJ fl9fllCG QL EP lIT JJEiIT ECOUOmTC

ecouomc2 yuuncj:

[o1 OGL D'q () jp yi JJG CO O EXCG2!1G DGUC!2 I4BEH I/\pJCLO-

JJIJJ rnq aJTbbr? o oc (im): WO-51!

{] /JoqJJIT1Ifl ELIJCO (Jt JJpG F!J-C2CJG ll2boPG2!2 O J'PJ JJG OL

cLqJuJ)

JJJ6 ECOUOm6cLC VbbLoJcp 4O DG/I0bm6 bIuup (op H°1Jq iiJ2-

[1 1]jjrn c .ou coJJcGhc o 0bjwj ECOIJOIIJ!C C'°"4P I"

uomJc (jJLcp\A):"T flIT2TIJ2 CI j IJ J4GOCJ9TC9J JoqGJ 'orrLuJ o J,JouGLA ECO-

W] KP B0PG4 C CF9LJ J bJ° flJq GIJO BGPGJO (J LLOq1JCc1OIJ C'°'4P

yIJJ6LICJIJ ECOUOUJ!C ii/ (2GbGmpGL):

[Ta] wPPLq if eirn nq I(GIIII(41J r nqq (TY 2°I 2GccrL! rnq jGJLG

pA JIJ4LJJJJJGJJJJ NrLJJPTG2 '[OHLIJJJ O1 JOflCJ ECOU0 (J (yop): y-jç[121 11(JJJJ wJo (T) JLJ bGL11JUG1J JIJCOIUG Hb01PG': Et!"!°11 JJJ IG2JIJ

ECOJJOJJJ!C '/cciAJk (2bLTu): i

f P b02L DGCIW6 in fl• JAiIJ: y Cop4 VIJJ?2i2 LooqIJ b6L OH{i] ojqnj 9GG2}J nunc y goqJJcoj nq ojrn rpGJjJdnw (J flrJqGLffrJq-

C0112fl111b!011 10flL1J5I o1. JfJOIJ6fL?. ECOHOC 00:

[r1 CT! (iooo) LTJJ1IG HOL!OH F!CJG &AJIJ mq IJTIJG 3GL!G qG1T on

(JppLIJrLA): T€0

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0

pG C0112HmGL 'q" °. : (VbLTJ): T-T20

[f] JJJLJ I/\1G1PGm E (J2Y flJJC6LflJJ IG!mG F!G I11211111C &IJq JJG JjJGOLA o

JJJJ O ECOIJOmiC 102 (EGpLff9LA):o-

[] JGJj bp!JJbbG• (T0o)• 44oIJGxbccfGq ijçA JIl ACLOGCOJJOJJJJC, c5ff9J46LI?. lOfiL-

LnPJJC ECOU0UIC 'ç (itri.cjJ): fJO-3F

[] MG!I bP!I!bbG (T0)• OAGLIbb!H JiYW!J!G O JJJ[JJflGJ?-pJAGq onuj °L