IAEA/INPRO Consultants’ Meeting on Socio- and Macroeconomic Issues in National Nuclear Energy Decision Making

Vienna, 19-21 March 2012 __________________________________________________________

Vietnam’s Way to Nuclear Energy

LE, Doan Phac Deputy Director General

Vietnam Atomic Energy Agency (VAEA) Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST)

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Outline

1. Overall status of Vienam’s nuclear programme 2. Main challenges 3. Factors considered when contemplating on the

nuclear power option 4. Main benefits and drawbacks of nuclear power 5. Role of the public and public relation activities

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1. Overall status of nuclear power programme in Vienam

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1.1. Growth Rate, Capacity, and Generation 2001 - 2010

• Average Commercial Electricity Growth Rate • Period 2001-2010 14.5%/year • Period 2006-2010 13.7%/year • Average Electricity Generation Growth Rate • Period 2006-2010 13.3%/year

In 2010 • Installed Capacity & Import 21,297 MW • Available Capacity 19,713 MW • Pmax 15,416 MW • Electricity Generation 100.07 TWh • Commercial Electricity 87.7 TWh

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1.2. Structure of Electricity Generating Mix in 2010

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Hydro38.0%

Gas-fired2.2%Coal-fired

18.5%

Oil-fired2.7%

Gas Turbine31.4%

Import4.7%

Diesel2.5%

1.3. Projection on Electricity Demand

2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

High Scenario

Com. Elect. (GWh)

70,046 86,756 184,284 318,511 494,126 739,928

Elect. Gen. (GWh)

87,109 100,007 210,852 361,945 561,506 833,817

Capacity (MW)

13,867 16,048 33,426 57,180 88,401 132,201

Base Scenario

Com. Elect. (GWh)

70,046 86,756 169,821 289,882 430,867 615,205

Elect. Gen. (GWh)

87,109 100,007 194,304 329,412 489,621 695,147

Capacity (MW)

13,867 16,048 30,803 52,040 77,048 110,215

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1.4. Installed Capacity Structure (2010 – 2030) Base Scenario (MW)

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2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Hydro & Pump

Storage

7,416 (34,8%)

14,006 (32,6%)

17,701 (26,4%)

20,401 (21,1%)

22,501 (16,4%)

Oil % Gas -fired

7,724 (36,3%)

10,912 (25,4%)

12,595 (18,7%)

17,285 (17,9%)

17,285 (12,6%)

Coal-fired 3,940 (18,5%)

15,255 (35,5%)

30,765 (45,9%)

44,790 (46,3%)

76,310 (55,7%)

Import 1,000 (4,7%)

1,073 (2,5%)

1,839 ( 2,7%)

3,509 (3,6%)

5,259 (3,8%)

Renewable 678 (3,2%)

1,679 (3,9%)

3,129 (4,7%)

4,829 (5,0%)

4,929 (3,6%)

Nuclear 1,000 (1,5%)

6,000 (6,2%)

10,700 (7,8%)

1.5. Overall status of nuclear power programme in Vienam (1/2)

• November, 2009 Vietnam's National Assembly approved the Government Plan on the implementation of the Ninh Thuan Nuclear Power Project composed of Ninh Thuan 1 and Ninh Thuan 2 NPPs.

• June 2010, the Prime Minister approved Master Plan for the Implementation of the Strategy for Peaceful Utilization of Atomic Energy up to 2020, of which Ministry of Construction was assigned to conduct a Project on “Planning Site for Radioactive Waste Disposal” and submit to Prime Minister for approval by end of 2015.

• October 2010, Vietnam and Russia signed an Inter-governmental Agreement on Cooperation in Construction of NPP in Vietnam.

• October 2011, Vietnam and Japan signed an Arrangement on Cooperation in Construction of Ninh Thuan 2 NPP.

• July 2011, the Vietnam’s Prime Minister approved Master Plan on Electricity Development, period 2011-2020 with vision to 2030.

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1.5. Overall status of nuclear power programme in Vienam (2/2)

According the Master Plan: • Ninh Thuan 1 consists of 4 units x 1000 MW; the first unit

construction planned to start by the end of 2014; Units 1 & 2 will be put into operation in the 2020-2021; Units 3 & 4 in 2024-2025;

• Ninh Thuan 2 consists of 4 units x 1,000 MW, the first unit construction start by end of 2015; Units 1 & 2 will be put into operation in 2021-2022; Units 3 & 4 in 2026-2027.

• From 2020 to 2027, every year, there will be about 1,000 MW of NP to be added to national electricity system; 2 units x 1,350 MW will be added in 2028-2029. By 2030, there will be 10 units with total capacity of 10,700 MW.

• Vietnam’s NP capacity will increase from 1,000 MW (1.5%) in 2020 to 6,000 MW (6.2%) in 2025 and 10,700 MW (7.8%) in 2030.

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Ninh Thuan 1 & 2 NPPs is located at Ninh Thuan Province

• Ninh Thuan NPP 1

Site: Phuoc Dinh Commune

Ninh Phuoc District

• Ninh Thuan NPP 2

Site: Vinh Hai Commune

Ninh Hai District

Ninh Thuan 1 & 2 NPP Sites

Vinh Hai

Phuoc Dinh

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Potential NPP Sites: 8 (Source: Planning Orientation on Nuclear Power Development in Vietnam up to 2030

Ky Xuan (Ha Tinh)

Hoai My (Binh Dinh)

Xuan Phuong (Phu Yen)

Binh Tien (Ninh Thuan) Vinh Hai (Ninh Thuan)

Phuoc Dinh (Ninh Thuan)

Duc Chanh (Quang Ngai)

Duc Thang (Quang Ngai)

Ninh Thuan 1 & 2 NPP Projects

• Russia and Japan have been chosen as partners of the Ninh Thuan 1 and Ninh Thuan 2 NPP Projects, respectively.

• In 2010, established State Steering Committee for Ninh Thuan NP Project led by a Deputy Prime Minister.

• In 2011, established State Steering Committee for Project on Training and Developing of Human Resources in the Field of Atomic Energy up to 2020 led by a Deputy Prime Minister.

• The Investor (EVN) is selecting Consultants for establishing the Dossiers for Sites approval, and Dossiers for Feasibility Study (FS) of Ninh Thuan 1&2 NPPs.

• According to the Milestones approach, Vietnam is standing at the Phase 2: Preparatory work for the construction of a nuclear power plant to reach Mileston 2: Ready to invite bids for the first NPP.

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2. Main challenges

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2. Main Challenges (1/2)

As a newcomer-country embarking to NP, Vietnam is facing many challenges

1. Infrastructure needed for a NPP on both the ‘hard’ and ‘soft’, especially legal framework, education and training system is still at low level;

2. Shortage of human resources in almost aspects relevant to NPP project implementation;

3. Investment capital for NPP project is mainly based on low-interest and preferential loans from partners (as mentioned in the six criteria/requests of Vietnamese Government for cooperation partners of the NPP Projects); and

4. Capabilities of R&D organizations, TSOs, as well as domestic industries… are limited;

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2. Main Challenges (2/2)

5. Assuring safety, security, and non – proliferation requires to become parties of some international instruments (AP, CPPNM and the Amendment, Vienna Convention, Joint Convention)…;

6. Fukushima accident raises more public concern, requests re-view of nuclear safety and related issues, at the results , licensing time and construction period will be prolonged and project cost will increase…; and

7. Implementing two projects with two partners of different technical regulations and standards on sitting, technologies, operation… also causes difficulties to formulation of regulatory documents.

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3. Factors considered when contemplating on the nuclear power

option

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3. Factors considered (1/3) Pre-FS Report on the Construction of NPPs in Vietnam submitted

to the Government and approved by the National Assembly in November 2009 included 14 chapters covering almost aspects (Factors) to be considered when deciding Ninh Thuan NPP Project:

Chapter 1. NP Necessity: Projections on energy demand, the ability of the exploitation of energy resources, calculating the possible alternatives and giving agurments for the necessity of building NPPs in Vietnam;

Chapter 2. NP Technologies: Overview of the NPP technologies, focusing primarily on three technology types: PWR, BWR and CANDU, as well as possibility on fuel supply for each type; thence establishing their comparision criteria serving to select the appropriate technology type;

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3. Factors considered (2/3) Chapter 3. NPP Sites: Survey and site selection results, including

economic, natural and social conditions of Ninh Thuan NPP sites; Chapter 4. Technical Solutions: Main parameters of the reference

NPPs with PWR and BWR technologies and unit capacity of 1000 MW;

Chapter 5. Radioactive Waste: Measures for radioactive waste treatment and management; providing criteria for preliminary site selection and a few of candidate sites for low and medium level radioactive waste storage;

Chapter 6. Building and Organizing Construction: characteristics and construction solutions for Ninh Thuan NPP project;

Chapter 7. Operation, Maintenance, and Training: Operaration and maitance of a NPP; current status and needs of manpower for Ninh Thuan NPP project as well as NP programme;

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3. Factors considered (3/3) Chapter 8. Nuclear Safety: Introducing technical and technological

solutions to ensure NPP safety; legal aspects of nuclear safety; Chapter 9. Environment: Environment status and Environment

Impact Assessment of Ninh Thuan NPP Project; Chapter 10. Preliminary total investment: Preliminarily estimating

total investment for Ninh Thuan NPP Project; Chapter 11. Modes of investment, Mobilizing capital and Finance

Analysis for NP projects; Chapter 12. Public Communication and Relation: Results of the

public opinion survey through the polls, seminars and exhibitions, as well as proposed implementation plans in the near future;

Chapter 13. International Cooperation; and Chapter 14. Security of Ninh Thuan NPP projects.

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4. Main benefits and drawbacks of nuclear power

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4.1. Main benefits (or Necessity) of Nuclear Power Development in Vietnam (1/5)

Backgroud Vietnam’s energy policy is based on a harmonious solution for

sustainable development by taking into account full capabilities of new energy resources in the country, and combining together with power import, coal and gas import, and renewable energy.

According to the Base Scenarios, up to 2015 Vietnam is still a net primary energy export country. But the energy shortage will be about 53 million TOE by 2020 and up to 143 million TOE by 2030. Taking into consideration all possibilities of mobilizing local natural resources and electricity import from neighbor countries, the likely fuel shortage for power generation after 2020 is remarkable. If there will be no new resources added, the Ratio of External Dependency will be 36% in 2020 and up to 57% in 2030 and continues to increase.

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4.1. Main benefits… (2/5)

On 17 August 2004, the Government of Viet Nam decided to issue The Strategic Orientation for Sustainable Development in Viet Nam (Viet Nam Agenda 21) with the folowing objectives:

The overall objective of the sustainable development is to create a materially, culturally and spiritually plentiful life for the people, quality of life for all citizens, the consensus of society and harmony between the people and the nature. The development is to be a tight, reasonable and harmonious combination of three elements: economic development, social equity and environmental protection.

The objective of sustainable development in economic terms is to obtain a stable economic growth rate with an appropriate economic structure, satisfy the people’s demands for living standards improvement, avoid economic depressions and stagnation in the future and avoid leaving heavy burdens of debts to future generations.

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4.1. Main benefits… (3/5)

The objective of the sustainable development in social terms is to obtain high results in the implementation of social progress and equality, ensure ever improved nutrition and quality of health care for the people, ensure opportunities of education and employment for all people, reduce hunger and the poverty ratio and lessen economic disparity among different social classes and groups, reduce social evils, improve equality in rights and duties of members and generations in a society, maintain and develop the diversity and identity of natural culture, constantly upgrade the civilizations levels in the material and spiritual life.

The objective of the sustainable development in environmental terms is to appropriately exploit and thriftily and effectively utilise natural resources; effectively prevent, stop, solve and control environmental pollution, protect the living environment protect national parks, natural protected areas, biosphere reserve areas, preserved biodiversity; overcome environment deterioration and improve the environment’s quality.

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4.1. Main benefits… (4/5)

Therefore, NP development is an optimal solution. The benefits (or necessity) of NP are considered in the following aspects:

1) Economic aspect Being competitive with electricity generation used imported fuel,

contributing to meeting electricity demand when the capability on exploitation of indigenous resources limited, NP development is a component of national energy development strategy on diversification of primary energy sources, reduction of dependence on imported energy, and ensuring energy security.

2) Social aspect NP is affordable. It provides public with more possibilities on access

to electricity, especially in the rural and remote areas. Therefore, NP contributes to raising people’s living qualities.

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4.1. Main benefits… (5/5)

Especially, material and spirit life of local people in the NPP areas will be improved due to investment and supports of the Government and utilities, as the results, new jobs created, infrastructure (including housing, roads, schools, hospitals, entertainment centers…) developed, and local incomes increased. In addition, NP power development contributes to enhancement of national capabilities on science and technology, development of infrastructure, promoting development of variety of domestic industries and other economics.

3) Environment aspect Contribution to reduction of environmental pollution by reducing of

fossil fuel using and to the implementation of national strategy on rational and sustainable exploitation, conservation of national resources.

Nuclear power contributes to the implementation of Vietnam’s Sustainable Development Plan.

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4.2. Main drawbacks of nuclear power

Problems on radioactive waste and spent fuels treatment, management, and storage;

High requirements of Infrastructure development; High requirement of man-power; High requirement of ensuring nuclear safety, security, and non-

prolefiration; High requirements of accession and implementation of nuclear

internation instruments; International relation, especially in the region. Requirement of huge investment capital with a long-time

construction period; High risk may be caused by many reasons.

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5. Role of the public and Public relation activities

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5. Role of the public and Public relation activities (1/2)

• Public, including many scientists, managers, social activists, local people at NPP sites, have participated in the national debate on nuclear power. Most Vietnamese people agreed with the approval of the National Assembly on Ninh Thuan nuclear power project

• Since 1996 with the cooperation of nuclear power - related foreign companies and institutions, a great deal of international nuclear power seminars, workshops, and exhibitions have been organized around the country, in particular, in Ninh Thuan province.

• The public education activities have been continuously conducting under many different forms such as mass media, publication of documents and booklets on nuclear power, organizing the visits of high-ranking officials, members of National Assembly, representative of local people and government to NPPs in foreign countries.

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5. Role of the public and Public relation activities (2/2)

• Government is launching a Project on Public Communication on Nuclear Power Development in Vietnam.

• Together information dissemination and propagation, support for people in area to build NPPs, Vietnam Electricity (EVN) is deploying Project on Establishment of Public Relation Center in Ninh Thuan province.

• At the same time, Ninh Thuan Province People's Committee is implementing Project on Migration and Resettlement for the people living in the NPP project area.

• The aforementioned projects are very important for creating the consensus and supports of the public in general and local people in the project area inparticular, especially after the Fukushima accident in Japan.

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Thank you for your attention

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