kenya referendunm poll

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Synovate Ltd. They are strictly of confidential nature and are submitted to you under

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communication to any third party without Synovates express prior consent and/or

payment of related professional services fees in full.Synovate Formerly Steadman

Referendum Baseline

Public Opinion Poll

June 2010

Date Published: 4th June 2010


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Methodology


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2Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate

Objective of the Survey

The objective of the survey was to assess voters views on issues

around the draft constitution including voting intentions and

prediction of the likely outcome of the referendum.

To inform and act as a planning guide for the various stakeholders

involved in the referendum process and to inform public debate


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Poll Methodology

Dates of pollingDates of polling May 22nd May 28th

Sample SizeSample Size 6017 respondents

Sampling methodologySampling methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS

UniverseUniverseRecently registered voters by IIEC

Data collectionData collection

methodologymethodology

Structured Face-to-Face interviews at the

household level

Sampling errorSampling error +/-1.6 with a 95% confidence level


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Sample Distribution

Province NationalPopulation

distribution

(over 18 years)

Distribution ofregistered voters

(IIEC Register)

Survey Sampledistribution

Nairobi 10% 10% 10%

Central 14% 16% 16%

Coast 9% 8% 8%

Eastern 16% 16% 16%

North Eastern 3% 2% 2%

Nyanza 14% 14% 14%

Rift Valley 24% 24% 24%

Western 11% 11% 11%


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Media coverage on

draft constitutional

matters


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Print

15%

Radio

71%

TV

14%

Overall : 6,746 articles across 9 print titles, 36 radio channels and 5 Tv channels (May 2010)

Constitutional issues media coverage (1st to 30th May 2010)


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0%

0%

1%

1%

1%

2%

6%

6%

6%

10%

11%

13%

20%

24%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

ICC investigations

IIEC by-elections

Party politics

TJRC issues

National Prayer Day

Public Opinion Polls

Draft publication issues

Draft constitution debates

Voter Registration

Kadhi courts ruling

Civic Education

"No" Campaigns

General Referendum Issues

"Yes" Campaigns

Share of coverage

Constitutional issues coverage on TV (1st to 30th May 2010)

TV Basis; 925 items across 5 Tv channels


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Familiarity with the

proposed Draft


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Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)

A lot, 10%

Something, 25%

A little, 51%

Nothing, 13%

How much do you know about the draft constitution?


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What are the sources of what you know about the constitution?

1%

2%

5%

17%

17%

19%

31%

32%

43%

58%

Employer

Professional associations

Internet

Politicians

Religious leaders

Personally read draft

Print media

Friends/relatives

Television

Radio


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43%

28%

Male Female

41%

33%

Urban Rural

% indicating know a lot/somethingabout the draft

% indicating know a lot/somethingabout the draft

How much would you say you know about the draft

constitution? By Gender and Setting


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45%

39%38% 36% 34% 33%

31%

21%

Nairobi Nyanza Western Eastern Central Rift Valley Coast North

Eastern

% indicating Know a lot/somethingabout the draft

How much would you say you know about the draft

constitution? By Province


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Views on the draft


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How Decisive are the voters?

Decisive, 77%

Indecisive, 19%

Will not Vote, 4%


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Yes to approve,

57%

No to reject,

20%

Undecided,

19%

Will not Vote,4%

When a referendum is held in August this year, will you vote

YES to approve or NO to reject the draft constitution?


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Base: n=4374 (those who have made up their

minds)

When a referendum is held in August this year, will you vote

YES to approve or NO to reject the draft constitution?

Yes to

approve, 74%

o to

reject, %

Based on those who have made uptheir minds on how they will vote


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Base: n=1141 (those will vote NO)

Reasons why you would vote against the proposed

constitution

2%

2%

2%

2%

4%

4%

6%

32%

37%

55%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Religious leaders are against the draft

The Bill of Rights

No confidence on the draft

It doesn't benefit the common man

Issues around Devolution

Need further amendments

Little or no information on the draft

The land clause

Inclusion of Kadhi courts

The abortion clause


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% Indicating will vote yes to approve

Support for the draft by the level of familiarity

74%

61%

53%

34%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

A lot Something A little Nothing

Base: n=3233 (those indicated will vote Yes to

approve)


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In you view is the draft constitution a very good constitution that does

not need to be amended, a good constitution that needs a few minor

amendments, an acceptable constitution that needs major amendments

or a bad constitution that should be rejected altogether?

Very good

constitution that

does not need to be

amended

27%

A good constitution

that needs a fewminor amendments

50%

An acceptable

constitution that

needs major

amendments

7%

A bad constitution

that should be

rejected altogether

6%

Don't know

10%



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Support for the draft

by support for

political personalitiesand political parties


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41%

13% 12%9% 7%

3% 1% 1%

Raila

Odinga

Kalonzo

Musyoka

Mwai

Kibaki

William

Ruto

Martha

Karua

Uhuru

Kenyatta

Charity

Ngilu

Eugene

Wamalwa

If Presidential elections were held today, who would you vote

for if that person was a presidential candidate?


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Base: Supporters of each personality

Support for the draft by political personalities followers.

Supporters of: Yes toapprove Notoreject Undecided Willnotvote

Raila Odinga (n=2490) 74% 8% 12% 5%

Mwai Kibaki (n=708) 57% 13% 22% 8%

Martha Karua (n=431) 53% 17% 19% 12%

Uhuru Kenyatta (n=163) 50% 25% 16% 9%

Kalonzo Musyoka (n=778) 44% 26% 22% 9%

William Ruto (n=515) 10% 68% 17% 5%


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Which political party do you feel closest to?

46%

24%

9%

4% 2% 1% 1%

11%

ODM PNU ODM Kenya Narc Kenya Narc KANU Others None


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Base: Supporters of each Party

65%55%

50%45%

17% 16%19%

30%

13%

21%18% 17%

5% 9%

13%

9%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

ODM PNU Narc Kenya ODM Kenya

Yes to approve No to reject Undecided Will not vote

n=2750 n=1472 n=253 n=556

Support for the draft by political parties followers.


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88%

76%

65%61%

58%54%

41% 39%

4%7% 11%

16%12%

11%

29%33%

8%

14%18%

14%

21% 20% 19% 20%

0% 2%7% 9% 9%

15%

10% 8%

North

Eastern

Nyanza Western Nairobi Central Coast Eastern Rift Valley

Yes to approve No to reject Undecided Will not vote

Support for the draft by Provinces.


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Religious leaders andthe draft


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Should the religious leaders take sides, eitherYES orNo

on the constitutional referendum?

Yes, 48%

No, 40%

Not sure, 12%

Yes = 50%,

No 35%,

Not sure 16%


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Which side would you like the religious leaders to support?

Yes side, 24%

No side, 17%

Not s re, 1 %

Neither side, 40%


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The target population for this survey was all Kenyans who have recently registered with the IIEC as voters. A sample size of 6017

respondents was drawn and distributed across the country based on the voters register by regions as per the IIEC. The sample was

distributed across 71 districts.

The maximum margin of error attributed to sampling and other random effects of this polls sample size is +/- 1.6 % margin at 95%

confidence level. A randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability proportional to size (PPS) was used. This ensured that

districts with a higher voter population size had a proportionately higher sample size allocation.

The interviews were done face to face at household level. Household interviews were preferred because they allow for pure random

sampling ensuring full representation of the various demographics and also for quality control. These face-to-face in-home interviews

are also preferred because they allowed for further probing as respondents have more time to respond to questions .

The households were selected using the systematic random sampling procedure. In this case a random starting point was selected

within a cluster of households. From that point the interviewers mainly skipped 4 households until the sample size for that cluster in

the district was achieved. One eligible respondent was then selected from each qualifying household through a household member

randomization technique known as the Kish Grid. This was done to ensure that there was no bias related to household member

selection.

The data collection involved the use of a semi-structured questionnaire having both open and closed ended questions. The poll

questions were structured in a very open manner, with all possible options provided, including no opinion. This ensures that there is

no bias at all with the way the questions are asked. Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The fieldwork

Supervisors made a minimum of 15% on-site back checks and accompanied a minimum of 10% of all interviewers calls, while the

field managers made 2% back-checks. These back-checks were made within the same day of interviewing

Poll Methodology


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For further details Please contact:

George Waititu

Tel: + 254 20 4450 196

Mobile: +254 722206980

George.waititu@synovate .com

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