kinh tế lượng - tiểu luận
TRANSCRIPT
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Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng
MC LC
A. LI M U
B. NI DUNG
I. THIT LP M HNH1. Bin ph thuc
2. Bin c lp
3 . M hnh tng th
4. D on k vng gia cc bin
5. M hnh hi quy mu
6. ngha ca cc h s hi quy
II. KHONG TIN CY1. Khong tin cy ca 12. Khong tin cy ca 23. Khong tin cy ca 34. Khong tin cy ca 45. Khong tin cy ca 56. Khong tin cy ca 67. Khong tin cy ca 78. Khong tin cy ca 89. Khong tin cy ca 910.Khong tin cy ca 1011.Khong tin cy ca 1112.Khong tin cy ca 12
III. KIM NH
1. Kim nh s nh hng ca bin c lp i vi bin ph thuc
2. Kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh SRF so vi s liu ca mu
3. Kim nh hin tng a cng tuyn
a. Pht hin a cng tuyn
SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9 2
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Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng
b. Khc phc hin tng a cng tuyn
4. Kim nh hin tng phng sai sai s ngu nhin thay i
Pht hin hin tng phng sai sai s ngu nhin thay i
5. Kim nh hin tng t tng quana. Pht hin hin tng t tng quan
b. Khc phc t tng quan
c. M hnh sau khi khc phc hin tng t tng quan
6. Kim nh sau khi khc phc hin tng t tng quan
IV. KIM NH BIN KHNG CN THIT
V. KIM NH BIN B B ST
VI. M HNH HON CHNH1. ngha ca cc h s hi quy
2. Khong tin cy
a. Khong tin cy ca 1b. Khong tin cy ca 2c. Khong tin cy ca 3d. Khong tin cy ca 4e. Khong tin cy ca 5f. Khong tin cy ca 6g. Khong tin cy ca 7h. Khong tin cy ca 8i. Khong tin cy ca 9k. Khong tin cy ca 11l. Khong tin cy ca 12
3. Kim nh
a. Kim nh s nh hng ca bin c lp i vi bin ph thuc
b. Kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh SRF so vi s liu ca mu
VII . THNG K M T (BNG PH LC 4)
SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9 3
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Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng
BIN Y
BIN KHNG GIAN
BIN THIT B
BIN S LNG SCHBIN CHNG LOI
BIN THI GIAN
BIN THI QUEN
BIN TNG
BIN THI
VIII. HN CH
IX . XUTC. LI CM N
SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9 4
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Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng
TI LIU THAM KHO
- Gio trnh kinh t lng, Nguyn Quang Cng, Khoa KHTN, Trng H Duy
Tn.
- Bi tiu lun nhm ca nhm 9, K17 22C2, H Ngoi Thng.
- Bi tiu lun nhm ca lp K13QTC1, H Duy Tn.
- Bi tp kinh t lng vi s tr gip ca EVIEWS, Khoa Ton Thng K, BMn Ton Kinh T, Trng i hc Kinh t TP HCM.
SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9 5
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Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng
I- THIT LP M HNH :
1. Bin ph thuc:
Y : s ln sinh vin n th vin
(n v tnh: ln)2. Bin c lp:
o GT: Gii tnh
o KG: Khng gian
o TB: Thit b
o SL: S lng
o CL: Chng loi
o TG: Thi gian
o TQ: Thi quen
o VT: V tr
o TA: tng
o TD: Thi
o YK: kin
3. M hnh tng th:Yi = 1 + 2 GT + 3 KG + 4 TB + 5 SL + 6CL + 7 TG + 8 TQ
+ 9 VT + 10 TA + 11 TD + 12 YK + Ui
4. D on k vng gia cc bin:
3 dng: Khi khng gian cng rng ri th s ln n th vin ca sinh vin
cng tng.
4 dng: Khi thit b tng ln th s ln n th vin ca sinh vin cng tng.
5 dng: Khi s lng u sch tng ln th s ln n th vin ca sinh vin
cng tng.
6 dng: : Khi chng loi sch tng ln th s ln n th vin ca sinh vin
cng tng.
SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9 6
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Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng
7 dng: Khi thi gian cho mn sch tng ln th s ln n th vin ca
sinh vin tng.
10 m: Khi tng gim th s ln n th vin ca sinh vin tng.
11 dng:Khi thi ca nhn vin th vin thn thin hn th s ln nth vin ca sinh vin tng.
5. M hnh hi quy mu :
Yi = 1.454701 - 0.170464 GT - 0.052047 KG - 0.067394 TB - 0.001363 SL -
0.136230 CL + 0.150395 TG + 0.356642 TQ + 0.113038 VT + 0.017496 TA +
0.031858 TD -0.185579 YK + ei
6. ngha ca cc h s hi quy:
1^: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, s ln n th vin ca sinh vin t gitr nh nht l 1.454701 ln.
2^ : Khi cc yu t khc khng i, s ln n th vin ca n ln hn nam0.170464 ln.
3^: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, khng gian tng gim 1 mc th s lnn th vin gim, tng 0.052047 ln (khc vi k vng)
4^: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, thit b tng, gim 1 loi th s ln n thvin gim, tng 0.067394 ln (khc vi k vng).
5^: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, s lng u sch tng, gim 1 mc th s ln n th vin gim, tng 0.001363 ln (khc vi k vng).
6^: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, chng loi sch tng, gim 1 loi th sln n th vin gim, tng 0.136230 ln. (khc vi k vng)
7^: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, thi gian cho mn sch thay i th sln n th vin chnh lch 0.15039 ln. 8^: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, thi quen thay i th s ln n th vinchnh lch 0.356642 ln.
9^: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, nu v tr thch hp th s ln n th vinln hn 0.113038 ln so vi v tr khng thch hp.
SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9 7
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Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng
10^: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, s tng tng, gim 1 tng th s ln nth vin tng, gim 0.017496 ln (khc vi k vng).
11^: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, nu thi ca nhn vin tng, gim 1mc thn thin th s ln n th vin tng, gim 0.031858 ln. 12^: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, nu sinh vin c kin ng gp th sln n th vin t hn 0.185579 ln so vi sinh vin khi khng a ra kin.
II. KHONG TIN CY
j^ - t
2 (n-k)*se( j^ ) j j^ + t
2 (n-k)*se( j^ )
( vi t2
(n-k) = t0.025(67) = 1.667916 )
1.Khong tin cy ca 1:Vi 1^ = 1.454701
Se ( 1^) = 0.578361
Th khong tin cy ca 1 l:
0.490043 1 2.419359
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i th s ln n th vin ca sinh
vin trong khong t 0.490043 n 2.419359 ln.
2.Khong tin cy ca 2:Vi 2^ = -0.17046
Se ( 2^) = 0.227842
Th khong tin cy ca 2 l:
-0.55049 2 0.209557
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi gii tnh l nam th s ln
n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -0.55049 n 0.209557 ln.
3.Khong tin cy ca 3:Vi 3^ = -0.05205
Se ( 3^) = 0.085314
SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9 8
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Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng
Th khong tin cy ca 3 l:
-0.19434 3 0.09025
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi khng gian tng gim mt
mc rng ri th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -0.19434 n0.09025 ln.
4.Khong tin cy ca 4:Vi 4^ = -0.06739
Se ( 4^) = 0.073681
Th khong tin cy ca 4 l:
-0.19029 4 0.0555
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi thit b tng gim mt loi
th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -0.19029 n 0.0555 ln.
5.Khong tin cy ca 5:Vi 5^ = -0.00136
Se ( 5^) = 0.074486
Th khong tin cy ca 5 l:
-0.1256 5 0.122873 ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi s lng u sch tng gim
mt mc th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -0.1256 n
0.122873 ln.
6.Khong tin cy ca 6:Vi 6^ = -0.13623
Se ( 6^) = 0.069696
Th khong tin cy ca 6 l:
-0.25248 6 -0.01998
SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9 9
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Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi chng loi sch tng gim
mt loi th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -0.25248 n
-0.01998 ln.
7.Khong tin cy ca 7:Vi 7^ = 0.150395
Se ( 7^) = 0.075387
Th khong tin cy ca 7 l:
0.024656 7 0.276134
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi thi gian mn sch thay i
th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t 0.024656 n 0.276134 ln.
8.Khong tin cy ca 8:Vi 8^ = 0.356642
Se ( 8^) = 0.114336
Th khong tin cy ca 8 l:
0.165939 8 0.547345
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi thi quen hc bi thay i
th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t 0.165939 n 0.547345 ln.9.Khong tin cy ca 9:Vi 9^ = 0.113038
Se ( 9^) = 0.196408
Th khong tin cy ca 9 l:
-0.21455 9 0.44063
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi v tr th vin thch hp th
s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -0.21455 n 0.44063 ln.
10.Khong tin cy ca 10:Vi 10^ = 0.017496
Se ( 10^) = 0.048061
SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9 10
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Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng
Prob( 4) = 0.3636 > = 0.05 Thit b khng nh hng n s ln
n th vin
Prob( 5) = 0.9855 > = 0.05 S lng u sch khng nh hng
n s ln n th vin Prob( 6) = 0.0547 > = 0.05 Chng loi sch khng nh hng
n s ln n th vin
Prob( 7) = 0.0501 > = 0.05 Thi gian mn sch khng nh
hng n s ln n th vin
Prob( 8) = 0.0027 < = 0.05 Thi quen hc bi nh hng n s
ln n th vin
Prob( 9) = 0.5668 > = 0.05 V tr khng nh hng n s ln
n th vin
Prob( 10) = 0.7170 > = 0.05 Tng khng nh hng n s ln
n th vin
Prob( 11) = 0.6471 > = 0.05 Thi nhn vin khng nh hng
n s ln n th vin
Prob( 12) = 0.2068 > = 0.05 kin ng gp ca sinh vin
khng nh hng n s ln n th vin
2. Kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh SRF so vi s liu ca mu:
Prob(F-statistic) = 0.015965 < = 0.05
M hnh ph hp.
3. Kim nh hin tng a cng tuyn:a. Pht hin a cng tuyn
Xem xt qua ma trn tng quan ca cc bin (Bng 3 phn Ph Lc), ta thy
2 bin VT v TA c mc tng quan kh cao : 0.613513nn c kh nng xy ra
hin tng a cng tuyn.
SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9 12
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Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng
kim nh a cng tuyn, chng ti xy dng m hnh hi quy ph trong
ln lt cc bin c lp s tr thnh bin ph thuc v hi quy vi cc bin cn
li.
Bng hi quy ph theo bin TA (Xem bng 2 phn Ph lc):
M hnh hi quy chnh:
Yi = 1 + 2 GT + 3 KG + 4 TB + 5 SL + 6CL + 7 TG + 8 TQ
+ 9 VT + 10 TA + 11 TD + 12 YK + Ui
M hnh hi quy ph:
TA = 1 + 2 GT + 3 KG + 4 TB + 5 SL + 6CL + 7 TG + 8
TQ + 9 VT + 11 TD + 12 YK + Vi
Hi qui m hnh hi quy ph theo TA ( Xem bng 6 phn ph lc)2
1R = 0.450069
V Prob(F-statistic)= 0.000004 R2loi VT = 0.272053
Hi quy li m hnh trong loi b bin TA: (Xem bng 9 phn Ph lc)
M hnh hi quy loi TA :
SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9 13
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Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng
Yi =1.450326-0.174874* GT -0.050441* KG -0.063471* TB +
0.004376* SL -0.132878* CL + 0.147648* TG 0.359554* TQ + 0.029972* TD
-0.177808* YK + ei
=>R
2
loi TA = 0.274170So snh R2 2 m hnh hi quy li ta thy R2loi VT < R2loi TA
Vy loi b bin TA ra khi m hnh th m hnh s tt hn.
4. Kim nh hin tng phng sai sai s ngu nhin thay i:
Pht hin hin tng phng sai sai s ngu nhin thay i:
Kim nh m hnh sau khi khc phc a cng tuyn:
Ta c: =
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Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng
T (1) thay i bi i-1, ta c:
Yi -1 = 1 + 2 GT i-1 + 3 KG i-1 + 4 TB i-1+ 5 SL i-1+ 6 CL i-1+
7 TG i-1+ 8 TQ i-1+ 9 VT i-1 + 11 TD i-1 + 12 YK i-1 + Ui -1 (2)
Nhn 2 v ca (2) cho ta c:Yi -1 = 1 + 2 GT i-1 + 3 KG i-1 + 4 TB i-1+ 5 SL
i-1+ 6CL i-1+ 7 TG i-1+ 8 TQ i-1+ 9 VT i-1 + 11 TD
i-1 + 12 YK i-1 + Ui -1 (3)
Ly (1) tr (3) ta c:
Yi - Yi -1 = 1 (1 - )+ 2 (GTi - GT i-1 ) + 3 ( KGi - KG i-1 ) +
4 ( Tbi - TB i-1) + 5 (Sli - SL i-1)+ 6 (Cli - CL i-1) + 7 (Tgi -
TG i-1) + 8 (Tqi - TQ i-1) + 9 (Vti - VT i-1 )+ 11 (TDi - TD i-1
) + 12 (Yki - YK i-1 ) + i (4)
T m hnh (4) trn, ta vit li:
Yi = 1 (1 - ) + 2 GTi - 2 GT i-1 + 3 KGi - 3 KG i-1 + 4
TBi - 4 TB i-1 + 5 SLi - 5 SL i-1 + 6CLi - 6CL i-1 + 7 TGi
- 7 TG i-1 + 8 TQi - 8 TQ i-1 + 9 VTi - 9 VT i-1 + 11 TDi -
11 TD i-1 + 12 YKi - 12 YK i-1 + Yi-1 + i
T Bng 10 - Phn Ph Lc: = -0.099907
t : Yi* = Yi - Yi -1
GTi* = GTi - GT i-1
KGi* = KGi - KG i-1
TBi* = TBi - TB i-1
SLi* = SLi - SL i-1
CLi* = CLi - CL i-1
TGi* = TGi - TG i-1
TQi* = TQi - TQ i-1
VTi* = VTi - VT i-1
SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9 15
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Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng
TD i* = TDi - TD i-1
YKi* = YKi - YK i-1
1* = 1 (1 - ) = 1 (1-(-0.099907))
2*
= 2 3* = 3
4* = 4
5* = 5
6* = 6
7* = 7
8* = 8
9* = 9
10* = 10
11* = 11
12* = 12
Khi (4) c vit li:
Yi* = 1* + 2* GTi* + 3*KGi* + 4* TBi* + 5* SLi* + 6* CLi* + 7*
TGi* + 8* TQi* + 9* VTi* + 10* TAi* + 11* TD i* + 12* YKi* + i (5)
V (5) khng c t tng quan v i tho mi gi thit ca phng php OLS
SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9 16
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Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng
c. M hnh sau khi khc phc hin tng t tng quan:
(Bng 11 - Phn Ph Lc)
Yi* = 1.891341 - 0.147473 GTi* - 1.18E 06 KGi* - 0.064553 TBi* +0.005791 SLi* - 0.133919 CLi* + 0.154227 TGi* + 0.413146 TQi* + 0.176533
VTi* + 0.007691 TDi* - 0.192187 YKi*
6. Kim nh sau khi khc phc hin tng t tng quan:
Ta c: k = k -1 = 11-1 = 10
d = 1.995184 (Bng 11 Ph lc)
du = 1.925
dl = 1.369Kim nh gi thit Ho: Khng c t tng quan m
d = 1.995184 < 4 dl = 2.631 < 4
Chp nhn Ho, tc l khng tn ti hin tng t tng quan m.
Kim nh gi thit Ho: Khng c t tng quan dng
0 < dl = 1.369 < d = 1.995184
Chp nhn Ho, tc l khng tn ti hin tng t tng quan dng.
Vy m hnh sau khi khc phc khng c hin tng t tng quan.
IV. KIM NH BIN KHNG CN THIT:
Redundant Variables: -0.099907*GT(-1)F-statistic 0.584844 Probability 0.447066Log likelihood ratio 0.676546 Probability 0.410779
V F = 0.584844 c xc sut p = 0.447066 > 05.0= nn GT l bin khng cn
thit trong m hnh hi quy.
SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9 17
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Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng
V. KIM NH BIN B B ST:
Omitted Variables: YK+0.099907*YK(-1)F-statistic 1.947328 Probability 0.167416
Log likelihood ratio 2.230549 Probability 0.135306
V F = 1.947328 c xc sut p = 0.167416 > 05.0= nn YK l bin khng nh
hng n s ln sinh vin n th vin, v vy khng nn a vo m hnh hi
quy.
VI. M HNH HON CHNH:
Yi* = 1.891341 - 0.147473 GTi* - 1.18E 06 KGi* - 0.064553 TBi* +
0.005791 SLi* - 0.133919 CLi* + 0.154227 TGi* + 0.413146 TQi* + 0.176533VTi* + 0.007691 TDi* - 0.192187 YKi*
1.. ngha ca cc h s hi quy:
1^: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, s ln n th vin ca sinh vin t gitr nh nht l 1.891341 ln.
2^ : Khi cc yu t khc khng i, s ln n th vin ca n ln hn nam0.147473 ln.
3^: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, khng gian tng, gim 1 mc th s lnn th vin gim, tng 1.18E 06 ln (khc vi k vng)
4^: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, thit b tng, gim 1 loi th s ln n thvin gim, tng 0.064553 ln (khc vi k vng).
5^: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, s lng u sch tng, gim 1 mc th s ln n th vin tng, gim 0.005791 ln (khc vi k vng).
6^
: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, chng loi sch tng, gim 1 loi th sln n th vin gim, tng 0.133919 ln. (khc vi k vng)
7^: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, thi gian cho mn sch thay i th sln n th vin chnh lch 0.154227 ln.
SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9 18
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Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng
8^: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, thi quen thay i th s ln n th vinchnh lch 0.413146 ln.
9^: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, nu v tr thch hp th s ln n th vinln hn 0.176533 ln so vi v tr khng thch hp. 11^: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, nu thi ca nhn vin tng, gim 1mc thn thin th s ln n th vin tng, gim 0.007691 ln.
12^: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, nu sinh vin c kin ng gp th sln n th vin t hn 0.192187 ln so vi sinh vin khi khng a ra kin.
2. Khong tin cy:
j^ - t2
(n-k)*se( j^ ) j j^ + t2
(n-k)*se( j^ )
( vi t2
(n-k) = t0.025(67) = 1.667916 )
a. Khong tin cy ca 1:Vi 1^ = 1.891341
Se ( 1^) = 0.669067
Th khong tin cy ca 1 l:
0.775847
1
3.006835 ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i th s ln n th vin ca sinh
vin trong khong t 0.775847 n 3.006835ln.
b. Khong tin cy ca 2:Vi 2^ = -0.14747
Se ( 2^) = 0.218056
Th khong tin cy ca 2 l:
-0.511024 2 0.216078
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi gii tnh l nam th s ln
n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -0.511024 n 0.216078 ln.
c. Khong tin cy ca 3:Vi 3^ = -1.18E-06
SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9 19
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Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng
Se ( 3^) = 7.30E-07
Th khong tin cy ca 3 l:
-2.4E-06 3 3.71E-08
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi khng gian tng gim mtmc rng ri th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -2.4E-06 n
3.71E-08 ln.
d. Khong tin cy ca 4:Vi 4^ = -0.06455
Se ( 4^) = 0.069665
Th khong tin cy ca 4 l:
-0.180701 4 0.051595
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi thit b tng gim mt loi
th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -0.180701 n 0.051595 ln.
e. Khong tin cy ca 5:Vi 5^ = 0.005791
Se ( 5^) = 0.070945
Th khong tin cy ca 5 l:
-0.112491 5 0.124073
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi s lng u sch tng gim
mt mc th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -0.112491 n
0.124073 ln.
f. Khong tin cy ca 6:Vi 6^ = -0.13392
Se ( 6^) = 0.061158
Th khong tin cy ca 6 l:
-0.235884 6 -0.03195
SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9 20
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Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng
Th khong tin cy ca 11 l:
-0.10352 11 0.118902
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi thi ca nhn vin th
vin tng gim mt mc thn thin th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trongkhong t -0.10352 n 0.118902 ln.
l. Khong tin cy ca 12:Vi 12^ = -0.19219
Se ( 12^) = 0.137723
Th khong tin cy ca 12 l:
-0.421804 12 0.03743
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi sinh vin c kin ng gp
th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -0.421804 n 0.03743 ln.
3. KIM NH:
a. Kim nh s nh hng ca bin c lp i vi bin ph thuc:
Prob( 2) = 0.5011 > = 0.05 Gii tnh khng nh hng n s
ln n th vin
Prob( 3) = 0.1104 >
= 0.05
Khng gian khng nh hng n sln n th vin
Prob( 4) = 0.3574 > = 0.05 Thit b khng nh hng n s ln
n th vin
Prob( 5) = 0.9352 > = 0.05 S lng u sch khng nh hng
n s ln n th vin
Prob( 6) = 0.0320 < = 0.05 Chng loi sch nh hng n s
ln n th vin
Prob( 7) = 0.0309
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Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng
Prob( 9) = 0.2408 > = 0.05 V tr khng nh hng n s ln
n th vin
Prob( 11) = 0.9085 > = 0.05 Thi nhn vin khng nh hng
n s ln n th vin Prob( 12) = 0.1674 > = 0.05 kin ng gp ca sinh vin
khng nh hng n s ln n th vin
b. Kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh SRF so vi s liu ca mu:
Prob(F-statistic) = 0.002373 < = 0.05
M hnh ph hp.
VII. THNG K M T (BNG PH LC 4)
BIN Y:
BIN KHNG GIAN
SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9 23
Tiu ch S ln Gi trTrung bnh 1.275000 1-2Trung v 1.000000Ln nht 4.000000 >7
Nh nht 0.000000 0
Tiu ch Mc Gi trTrung bnh 4.512500 rng riTrung v 5.000000Ln nht 5.000000 Rt rng ri
Nh nht 1.000000 Rt cht chi
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Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng
BIN THIT B
BIN S LNG SCH
BIN CHNG LOI
BIN THI GIAN
SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9 24
Tiu ch Loi Gi trTrung bnh 3.500000 3 4 loi
Trung v 4.000000Ln nht 4.000000 4 loi
Nh nht 1.000000 1 loi
Tiu ch Mc Gi trTrung bnh 2.537500 va phiTrung v 3.000000Ln nht 5.000000 nhiu
Nh nht 1.000000 t
Tiu ch Loi Gi tr
Trung bnh 3.550000 3 - 4 loiTrung v 4.000000Ln nht 4.000000 4 loi
Nh nht 1.000000 1 loi
Tiu ch Mc Gi tr
Trung bnh 1.875000 1 thngTrung v 2.000000Ln nht 4.000000 1 nm
Nh nht 1.000000
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Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng
BIN THI QUEN
BIN TNG
BIN THI
VIII. HN CH
- V ngun lc ca nhm c hn nn s lng sinh vin c phng vn cn
thp, do tnh i din cho sinh vin ton trng cn thp.
- V kin thc cn hn ch nn vn c mt vi yu t khc nh hng n s
ln n th vin ca sinh vin m nhm cha a vo kim nh dn n
kt qu cn thiu chnh xc.
SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9 25
Tiu ch a im Gi trTrung bnh 1.162500 Nh hoc th vinTrung v 1.000000
Ln nht 4.000000 Ch khcNh nht 1.000000 Nh
Tiu ch Tng Gi trTrung bnh 2.725000 2 hoc 3Trung v 2.000000
Ln nht 6.000000 6Nh nht 1.000000 1
Tiu ch Mc Gi trTrung bnh 4.250000 Kh thn thin
Trung v 5.000000Ln nht 5.000000 Thn thin
Nh nht 1.000000 Khng thn thin
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Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng
IX. KIN XUT
- Th vin cn phi m rng khng gian
- Cn phi trang b y wifi, my vi tnh, iu ho, my chiu
- Cn phi tng thm s lng u sch .- Cn phi cp nht thm nhiu loi sch nh: sch chuyn ngnh, sch i
cng , lun vn, tiu lun, bo, tp ch.
- Tng thi gian cho sinh vin mn sch ln 1 thng.
- Th vin nn t tng 2.
- Thi ca nhn vin th vin cn thn thin hn
- Ngoi ra, cn tng tc ng truyn internet, thit k khng gian xanh
cho th vin, cn trang b thm a, phn mm phc v cho vic hc tp.
SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9 26
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Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng
LI CM N
Nhm Olalani xin gi li cm n chn thnh nht ti thy Nguyn Quang
Cng, ngi tn tnh hng dn chng em la chn ti ph hp, trang b
cho chng em nn tng kin thc cn thit hon thin bi tiu lun mt cch tt
nht.
Bn cnh , gip cho chng em c nhiu kinh nghim hn trong vic iutra s liu, ng dng cc phn mm: Eview, Excel x l s liu trong mn
hc Kinh T Lng ni ring v trong cc mn hc sau ny ni chung. Bi bo
co chc chn cn nhiu hn ch v thiu st, nhng nhm Olalani hy vng s
xut nhng kin ng gp chn thnh ca cc bn v th vin trng Duy Tn.
Mong rng th vin trng Duy Tn s i mi trong thi gian gn nht
tht s phc v tt hn cho tt c cc sinh vin.