Koncept Strategije nisko-karbonskog razvoja Bosne i Hercegovine

Jernej Stritih

Zašto nisko-karbonska strategija

• Osnova za strateške odluke o budućem razvoju

• Dio globalnog zajednićkog napora• Klimatska politika je prioritet EU • Osnova za finansiranje mjera za sniženje

emisija • Integracija politika životne sredine,

privrednog i socialnog razvoja – održivi razvoj

Osobine BiH

• Bih je zemlja još uvijek u obnovi posle rata• Ograničene informacije o emisijama

stakleničkih gasova• Kompleksna institucionalna struktura• Neizvesnost u vezi vremenskog okvira

ukljućivanja u EU• Niske emisije po glavi stanovnika, visoke

po jedinici BDP

Princip predostrožnosti i manjak informacija

• Pomanjkanje informacija ne treba da bide razlog za odsutnost mjera

• Strategija treba da uzme u obzir postojeći nivo informacija

• Prilagođavajuće upravljanje – postepeno poboljšanje informacija

Konvencija o klimatskim promjenama i Kjoto protokol

• Konvencija 1992 – podjela na Aneks I i ostale, zajednička ali diferencirana odgovornost

• Kjoto protokol 1997 – kvantificirani ciljevi za razvijene zemlje (Aneks I) 2008 – 2012

• Kopenhagen 2009: cilj 2o C, nisko-karbonske strategije, nacionalne akcije (NAMAs), finansiranje

• Durban 2011: drugi ciljni period Kjota do 2020, posle 2020 jedan pravni instrument

Ukljućivanje BiH u EU• Sve (ne još) zemlje EU su

Aneks I• BiH treba da promjeni

status uz ulazak u EU• Nepoznanice: vremenski

okvir, globalni režim posle2020

• Klimatska politika EU: – EU ETS (mehanizam trgovanja za velike emitente), – Odluka o podjeli napora (individualni ciljevi za zemlje)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Current policy

Power Sector

Residential & Tertiary

Non CO2 Other Sectors

Industry

Transport

Non CO2 Agriculture

1990 2000-1 2010 2015 2020 2025 20300

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Annual GHG emissions and emission projections from available sources - Million Tons CO2 equivalent

BiH NC1, NC2

IFs Fossil Fuels Base

Ifs Fossil Fuels Markets First

IFs Fossil Fuels Policy First

IFs Fossil Fuels Security First

IFs Fossil Fuels Sustainability First

SNC S1 Electricty only

SNC S2 Electricty only

SNC S3 Electricty only

PRIMES Baseline Dec11

The International Futures (IFs) modeling system, version 6.54. IFs was initially developed by Barry B. Hughes and is based at the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, www.ifs.du.edu. Scenario PRIMES_BL2010_REF_Dec11  (c) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)  A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

2010 2015 2020 2025 20300

2

4

6

8

10

12

GDP per capita at PPP in 2000$ (using 2005 ICT update trom 2007) - Thousand $

Base

Markets first

Policy first

Security first

Sustainability first

The International Futures (IFs) modeling system, version 6.54. IFs was initially developed by Barry B. Hughes and is based at the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver,www.ifs.du.edu.

Mogući scenariji za BiH

Rast preko novih tehnologija i usluga

Iscrpljivanje šuma, rijeka i predjela

Niska energetska efikasnost, Niska održivost

Investiranje u novi ugalj

Investiranje u obnovljive

izvoreKlopka resursa i siromaštva

Rast preko tržišta energije

Visoka energetska efikasnost, Visoka održivost

Ciljevi i mjere• Strateški cilj do 2020-2030:

– apsolutan ili u odnosu na „business as usual“• Specifični ciljevi:

– po sektorima prema efikasnosti mjera• Mjere:

– postizanje drugih ciljeva razvoja (Siromaštvo, EU…

– Efikasnost troškova / ekonomsko pozitivni – Mogućnost privatnog finansiranja– Odsutnost administrativnih i drugih prepreka

Moguće mjere 1Sector or sub-sector Possible measures

Energy efficiency in buildings

- Building code requiring high energy efficiency for new buildings and restorations

- Subsidy/lending scheme for energy efficiency measures in housing

- Energy contracting for public and commercial buildings- …

Energy efficiency in industry

- Energy audits and capacity building on energy management- Energy efficiency standards- Subsidy/lending scheme for energy efficiency measures in

industry- …

Thermal power plants and coal mines

- Methane capture in coal mines- Improving efficiency of existing TPPs- Use of natural gas in combined cycles of power an heat- New generation of TPPs with higher efficiency- Co-firing biomass and coal- Mine closure and economic restructuring of mining regions- …

Moguće mjere 2Sector or sub-sector Possible measures

District heating and industrial co-generation

- Reconstruction and extension of district heating networks- Introducing renewable energy and high energy efficiency

(combined heat and power) energy generation- Co-generation on industrial sites for both district heating and

industrial needs- …

Natural gas - Expansion of natural gas replacing coal and fuel oil- …

Hydro power plants - Developing the available hydro-power potential through concessions

- …Wind energy - Developing the available wind potential through concessions

- …Biomass - Improving the efficiency of existing wood burning technologies

- Securing reliable supply of fuel wood and biomass for heating- Promoting use of biomass for district heating and industrial co-

generation- …

Moguće mjere 3Sector or sub-sector Possible measures

Geothermal - Shallow geothermal for heating- High temperature geothermal for combined power- …

Biogas - Biogas production from animal husbandry wasteTransport - Reconstruction of railways, including securing quality passenger

service- Promoting public road transport (bus)- Precedence of walking and cycling before cars in urban

development- Tax incentives discouraging old, polluting, inefficient cars- Policy of expensive fuel - Developing settlements, road network and intermodality

facilitating public transport- …

Waste management - Home composting- Separate waste collection and recycling- Landfills with gas capture, combustion and electricity generation- Municipal solid waste incineration/energy recovery- …

Moguće mjere 4Sector or sub-sector Possible measures

Agriculture - Manure storage, preparation and application methods- Proper application of mineral and organic fertilizers - Organic production …

Forests and nature - Sustainable forest management and protection- Integrating carbon sequestration into forest management - Afforestation and reforestation of bare lands- Parts of forests and protected areas left to natural development- Promotion of wood products …

Osposobljavanje

• Okvir za izvođenje strategije• Praćenje• Izveštavanje• Verifikacija • Evaluacija i prilagođavanje strategije

• Emisije• NAMAs