Korea & the World (12)New E. Asia with J-C-K

2011. 6. 7. 김 병 구

bkkim9@gmail.com

This week in brief

• 반기문 UN 사무총장 재선 출사표– 2006-2011 초임 임무 수행 탁월–지구 온난화 , 핵무기 없는 세상 , 아랍의 봄

등–겸손과 정직으로 국제사회의 신뢰–미 , 중 , 프 등 공식 재선지지 표명– 2011. 9. UN 총회에서 연임 여부 확정 발표

• Westward: center of the world ( 西行 )• History lessons: Japan/Korea• History lessons: China/Korea• Lessons learned from EU• Coming of the Asian era• New J-C-K, BESETO relationship

Westward: Center of the World

• Persian empire : 6 c. BC – 4 c. BC

• Roman empire : 1 c. BC – 6 c. AD

• Mongolian emp. : 13 c. AD – 15 c.

• Ottoman emp. : 16 c. AD – 18 c.

• Napoleon : 18 c.• Pax Britanica : 19 c. AD• Pax Americana : 20 c. AD• ??? : 21 c.

History Lessons: Japan/Ko-rea

• Nearest neighbor– Linguistic, racial (‘Mongolian blue spot’)

• 2000 years of friendly cooperation– Kudara to Aska, cultural transfer– 朝鮮通信使 (17-18 c. 17 times)

• Adversarial periods–倭寇 , 임진 / 정유왜란 , colonial period

• History distortions continue–任那지배설 , 獨島 / 竹島 , 東海 / 日本海 명칭

등• Most advanced nation in Asia

History Lessons: China/Ko-rea

• Small but independent NE nation (‘ 東夷’ )

• Imported Chinese character, Confu-cius

• History distortion– ‘ 東北工征’ , ‘ 中華思想’

• Korean War participant, Truce signa-tory

• Diplomacy with both Koreas• Host country of 6-Party Talks• Number one trade partner

Lessons Learned from EU

• Prosperity through common market– Security: NATO, OSCE– Economy: EU FTA, no visa, single cur-

rency euro

• UK/FRA/GER historic enemy resolved– “Wisdom learned from sufferings”

• Move from competition to coopera-tion

• Common standards among EU 27

• Chinese culture, common sufferings• E. Asia-3 economy surpasses US, EU • Neighbors biggest global trading

partner• World expects pan-Asian market • Better future with cooperation• Korea’s ‘balancing’ role with J-C • Prerequisite to regional security– North Korean issue to be resolved

Coming of the Asian Era

Towards Asian Common Market (BESETO)

• J-C-K number one trade partners• Free Trade Agreements (FTA)• No visa agreements• Exchange students• Single currency (like Euro)?• Electrical grid connection?• Road, rail, sea transportations– Undersea tunnel (Busan to

Shimonoseki)?– Asian Highway 1: J-K-C-I-T

Nuclear Power Plants in the Silk Road Countries (2010)

North Korean Nuclear His-tory

• 1957 Joined IAEA • 1992 Joint Declaration of Denu-

clearization, ratified NPT – 1st nuclear crisis after the ‘inconsistancy’

• 1995 Agreed Framework, KEDO • 2002 2nd nuclear crisis–Withdrawal from NPT

• 2006 1st nuclear test, 6-Party Talks• 2009 2nd nuclear test, missiles

UAE 원전 수출 계약 4X1400 3 세대 원전 , 건설비 186 억 $

사상 최대 규모 , 건설단가 ~$3,300/kW 추가 60 년 운전보수 계약 기대

3 사 국제경쟁입찰 프랑스 / 미국 / 한국 1987 년 미국 원천기술 도입 대상국

UAE 한국 선정 사유 “Proven safety and economy”

한국형 APR-1400 로형 처녀 수출 한 /UAE 핵확산 민감 지역

No reprocessing, no enrichment

 

UAE원전 부지

Light/dark contrast in the Penin-sula

New role for Korea

• G20 Summit in Seoul (Nov. 2010)– First to host out of G8– Roadmap for the global financial crisis

• Nuclear Security Summit in 2012– Focus on nuclear nonproliferation– Nuclear black market, terrorism

• Belligerent NK– Cheonan-ham, Yeonpyeong-do– 3 generations of violence DNA

Future model for Korea

• European style small but strong na-tion– Austria, Belgium, Netherland, etc.

• GDP $20,000, low carbon green growth

• Open to all nations, free trades• Assisting developing nations(OECD-

DAC) • Law abiding, human touch country• Conserve culture, environment

“ 빨리빨리 , 세계최고” 보다 “느긋만만 强小國”