.,, _

4. Land Use planning for loW Emission development Strategy (LUWES) dan REDD Abacus untuk Pemantauan Cadangan Karb~n

Land Use planning for loW Emission development Strategy (LUWES) dan

REDD Abacus Untuk Pemantauan Cadangan Karban

Sonya Dewi, Andree Ekadinata, Putra Agung, Feri Johana and Gamma Galudra

Pros1d1ng Workshop Strategt Monuonng dan Pelaporan Plot Sampel Permanen dt Provms1 Sumatera Barat 79

OUTLINE

1. Latar Belakang

2. Land Use Planning For Low Emission Development

Strategy (LUWES} dan REDD Abacus

3. Carbon Accounting in LUWES and REDD+ Abbacus

4. LUWES untuk Pemantauan Karban

5. Contoh Aplikasi LUWES

Latar Belakang

80 I Presentas1

~

I

'

.,

)-

I ['-·

~

> ......... +"' ~

REDD+ dan NAMA 3.5 ~BAU Tingkat Referensi

3 misi

-.NAMAN Unilateral emission

2.5 reduction

Internationally 2 NAMA I

suppor-ted emission_ 15% reduction

X% 1.5 ale of C-credits

1 Net emissions

0.5 from Indonesia

0

1990 2000 2010 2020

Beberapa Pertanyaan Terkait Upaya Mitigasi Perubahan lklim

• Bagaimana memahami rencana aktivitas pembangunan dan skala prioritasnya?

• Bagaimana mengetahui implikasi rencana pembangunan terhadap tingkat emisi ?

• Bagaimana mempertahankan tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi sekaligus menurunkan emisi?

• Apa saja kebijakan yang mendukung strategi pembangunan rendah emisi?

Pros1d1ng Workshop Strateg1 Morntonng dan Pclaporan Plot Sampel Perman en d1 Provms1 Sumatera Barat 81

Pembangunan Rendah Emisi

• Adalah sebuah sistem ekonomi yang meminimalisasi output/emisi GRK ke biosfer, khususnya gas C02

• Didorong oleh adanya perubahan iklim global karena emisi GRK yang disebabkan oleh akitivitas manusia.

• Tujuan utama adalah untuk menghindari dampak negatif dari perubahan iklim

• lmplementasi global diharapkan bisa terjadi

• Menuju zero carbon society dan renewable-energy economy

82 Presemas1

Land Use Planning For Low Emission Development Strategy (LUWES)

Tradeoffs Sistem Penggunaan Lahan

2,000

1,800

"' 1,600 .c ~ ui 1,400 ~ e 1,200 Q.

> 1,000 Q. z

800

600

400

200

0

Tree crop •

plantations

.intensil:~ crops

···'f

Tree plant~ii~ns x Agroforest . • •. Hulan alam yang

•. ••••• "' dibudidayakan .. • •• · ·s~cara intensif dibudidayakan

········ . ••••••• H t I . • • • • • • • • • • • u an a am pnmer

- Extensive crops

- Pastures

Hulan alam yang

0 50 100 150 200 C stock, Mg C/ha

250 ~o

-11 NPV << /1NPV>>

High High

11 co2-eq >> emission, less profitable land

emission, highly profitable land use change use~

~

Pros1d1ng Workshop Strateg1 Monitonng dan Pelaporan Plot Sampel Permanen d1 Prov1ns1 Sumatera Baral 83

Low emission development strategies (LEDS}

• 41/7 in the case of Indonesia • Minimizing GHG emission to biosphere and

sustaining development (growth and equity, beyond economic)

• Within AFOLU sector, LEDS is largely integrated rural land use planning and development planning

• But ... land use planning and development planning in rural tropics are often independent processes with no coordination

• Inclusive, integrated, informed land use planning is necessary

Low emission development

strategies (LEDS)

Olmate Change Mitigation

I c

84 Presemas1

Historic emission

Low Emission Development

Scenarios

$,ES, pe ople

Development activities

--~-­

$, peopl e,ha

LED plan

" $, people, ha, c

Trade-off analysis, strategies

_band Use Planning for Low ~mission Development ~trategy

(LUWES)

• a framework that helps local stakeholders to design a development planning that can reduce green house gas emission from land-based activity while still maintained economic growth

• offers a set of principles, steps and tools (including a Java-based software, ABACUS SP) to help multi­stakeholders to negotiate the land use plans by entertain ing scenarios that can be developed together.

LUWES in 6 steps

1. lntegrasi kondisi sosial ekonomi, pembangunan, penataan ruang, faktor biofisik dan zonasi fungsi kedalam penentuan unit perencanaan

2. Estimasi perubahan penggunaan lahan dan konsekuensinya terhadap cadangan karbon.

3.Mengembangkan skenario baseline dan menentukan Reference Emission Level

4.Menyusun skenario penurunan emisi dan memodelkan emisi di masa yang akan datang

S.Trade-off analysis, memilih skenario terbaik dalam mengurangi emisi

6.Memformulasikan rencana aksi termasuk di dalamnya instrumen untuk mengimplementasi rencana

Prosid1ng Worl<.shop Strategi Mon11onng dan Pelaporan Plot Sampel Permanen d1 Provms1 Sumatera Barat 85

f"~~ Climate Change

Mitigatiori ,, 0 \

' - ..

c Scenarios

$, peopl e, ha

Financing

~

4 11 21 JS 42 0 51 63 1 11 ston Ptr-Ha Area {Mg CO:'-eqlHa Veat)

-A software to calcu late opportunity cost, analyze opportunity cost curve, ca lculating reference emission level and developing emission reduction strategy -Avai lable for free at http://www.worldagroforestrycentre.org/sea/abacus/

86 Presentas1

Pemantauan Cadangan Karbon Dalam LUWES dan REDD Abacus

Choices of Approach • Gain-loss {process based)

approach

• Estimates net balances of addition to and removal from carbon pools

Disturbance

C02 Uptake via growth

Land use type

Harvest

L\C = L\C gain - L\C loss

• Stock difference approach

• Estimates net balances of addition to and removal from carbon pools ---------------------~

C-stock t1

Change in land use system

C-stock t2

: L'.\C = L\C t2 - L\C u I I I I I L---- ____ I LU WES

Pro11d1ng Workshop Strateg1 Morntonng dan Pelaporan Plot Sampel Permanen d1 Provms1 Sumatera Barat 87

Salah Satu Pilihan Metode Estimasi Gas Rumah Kaea

Rerata tahunan perubahan

cadangan karbon

/

"'­,.. ; -- ......

' \ ,:r.:'Perub~han ' \

~ I . , ' - \

c sistem '1 I •

\ pengunaan " lahan

I I I

'•.,

\ DATA AKTIVITAS I Kuantifikasi

\ perubahan lahan I

'

dari satu kurun / waktu /

' ..... ""

Persamaan generik

FAKTOR EMISI

Kuantifikasi perubahan cadangan

karbon dalam satu kurun waktu

b.C = perubahan tahunan cadangan karbon keseluruhan, ton C/tahun

Aij = luas dari tipe penggunaan lahan iyang berubah menjadi /(ha)

L\CiL LB = perubahan cadangan karbon pada biomasa hidup dari perubahan t1pe penggunaan lahan imenjadi j (ton C/ha)

L\Cij DOM = perubahan cadangan karbon pada bahan oganik mati dari perubahan penggunaan lahan dari tipe imenjadi j (ton C/ha)

L\Cij SOILS= perubahan cadangan karbon dalam tanah dari perubahan penggunan lahan tipe imenjadi j (ton C/ha)

Tij = periode waktu yang ditetapkan untuk pengukuran dan pemantauan, tahun.

88 Presentas1

•Choice of land use/cover classes •Stratification •Look-up table - land cover, land use, land use systems

•Plot sampling design •Field measurement •Choice of model, parameters, allometric equation

•Satellite image interpretatio and spatial analysis •Groundtruthing

I\ Uncertainty level

Assessing variability at landscape level

Pros1dmg Workshop Strateg1 Monitoring dan Pelaporan Plot Sampel Permanen dt Provms1 Sumatera Barat 89

Sistem Penggunaan Lahan

• Penggunaan lahan (land use) mengacu kepada aktifitas manusia pada lahan tertentu

• Tutupan lahan (land cover) mengacu pada tipe vegetasi yang ada pada lahan tertentu

• Zonasi mengacu pada zonasi biofisik atau kebijakan yang mempengaruhi tutupan dan pengelolaan lahan

• Sistem pengunaan lahan (SPL) menggabungkan ketiganya, termasuk siklus perubahan vegetasi dan aktifitas pengelolaan (penanaman, pemanenan)

Definisi kawasan hutan berdasarkan kanopi

POHON DI LUAR

I KAWASAN \ HUTAN ' ' ' ...

90 Presemas1

l!7

--------~ - ---- - --- --... ... .. ,,. ' ,. ,.

KAWASAN I I HUTAN I I DE NGAN

POHON

TOTAL AREA

Sistem penggunaan lahan dan cadangan karbon

• Jenis vegetasi yang membentuk tutupan lahan menentukan besarnya cadangan karbon dan kemampuannya dalam menambat karbon

• Aktivitas dalam sebuah tipe penggunaan lahan umumnya berpengaruh pada perubahan cadangan karbon (emisi atau penambatan karbon)

• Sistem pengunaan lahan - panjang rotasi dan tipe mempengaruhi rata-rata cadangan karbon (time-averaged C­stock)

Salah Satu Pilihan Metode Estimasi Gas Rumah Kaea

Rerata tahunan perubahan

cadangan karbon

I

"­,.. , -- .....

' \

~ I I I \ DATA AKTIVITAS I

I ~ perubahanlahan

'

dari satu kurun /

waktu /

' -- .......

Kuantifikasi FAKTOR EMISI

Kuantifikasi perubahan cadangan karbon dalam satu

kurun waktu

Pros1dmg Workshop Strategi Monitonng dan Pelaporan Plot Sampel Permanen d1 Prov1ns1 Sumatera Barat 91

92 Presentas1

Satellite image interpretation

Land cover change analysis

] Settlement - Water body

Cloud and shadow

1989

World A~[r 0-

Analisa perubahan penggunaan dan tutupan lahan

• Pemetaan penggunaan lahan dan tutupan lahan pada titik waktu yang berbeda

• ldentifikasi perubahan pada lokasi yang sama pada kurun waktu yang berbeda

• Penghitungan area masing-masing kelas perubahan

Matriks perubahan I

2000

lua sa n peruba han lahan

Matri ks Peru ba ha n1-----.--- --,.-- ----.---r----+-- ---i

Lahan (ha)

Hu tan

Kebun

1990

Tutupan laha n yg t idak berubah

0 0 0

Kelas t ut upan la han yang dia nalisa

World .A4t11 <

Pros1d1ng Workshop S1ra1eg1 Monnonng dan Pelaporan Pio! Sampel Permanen d1 Provins1 Suma1era Bara! 93

Salah Satu Pilihan Metode Estimasi Gas Rumah Kaea

Rerata tahunan perubahan

cadangan karbon

--DATA AKTIVITAS

Kuantifikasi perubahanlahan dari satu kurun

waktu

'

FAKTOR EMISI

Kuantifikasi

Plot level carbon measurement

94 Presentas1

\ \ \ I I

I

100

"

I •

Tree Plot

100 • t/. • • • e .... .. :: ..,,. :i. ···1 .• ...... , . . . ·.. •\. •

-~. . . .. ~ ···~ • :• -41; .. . .S• •• , . ... .. , . . . . ... . . . .. ~ . . • ..• ·~ " . ,. i9 .... • ••. , fl) :-. •

••• ••• • • . ~· ..•• ·~ ", . , ............ ,"' .. .

... .. ... . . t. . . • • . .... fll.·.· • . ..... ~ ,... . .. . "' ..... . • • • • • • • •• ••• t ~ . . •. ~ .. ; -~ ..•. :,.11 .. ,,. . . . ,,. ' ... ,, ...

. . . ' .. , . ' '" .. •... , ... , . . •.. . •;:. . • • • • • ,. 100

1992 123 Ton C

0-· C .J .., ......

Sub Plo l Info

OBH Class

"

0

• • ,,.".. • _J ... . • " • '5"'". • • ~

' " • . •... ,. • ., • t ••• • •• ;.

• • • • • 0 50 11

1998 ~ 133T~

WorldAim1[

Carbon Stock(Ton'Ha)

Ta ble

0.10 10.1' ~-20- ?j • .i:i -&:) .!~ !~-~ ~-10 10.i: t4-SO go. tea . 110. 1C' t10 1;;:~

Pros1d1ng Workshop Strategi Morntonng dan Pelaporan Plot Sampel Perman en d1 Prov1ns1 Sumatera Barat

• 100

95

..

240 ....

"' -;, 200 2

~ 160 c !'Cl .... "' :::s 120 ::i: ·v; Qj

80

40

1 Calculation of time averaged C-stock

HU TAN ALAMI

Tebang & Bakar

D Hilang viaT&B ;;o QI .....

_P_e_r9!~1!'!~Yi'! _____________ ·---1 230 ~ aforestasi · ~

• Tertinggal di lahan QI

n "O <11 .... ~.

"'" c "' ..... QI :::s QI

~ 80 s

(IQ

::r QI,:.

Tan. Semusim/ Lafang 29

a. u c !'Cl t>.D c !'Cl

"O !'Cl u o,__----------..... ------..... ------...---------

0 10 20 30 40 (IPCC, 2001, hal 209)

Time averaged C-stock dari berbagai sistem

600

500

ro 400 ..c: ........ +I 300

.!:I::: u 200 0 +I

'r 100 u

96 Presentas1

penggunaanlahan

!Degradation, - 300 t/ha

Deforestation - 5 t/ha y

0 Trees • Understorey 0 Necromass • Litter 0 Soil (S} 0-5 cm 0 S, 5-10 cm • S, 10-20 cm CJ S, 20-30 cm

LUWES dan REDD Abacus Untuk Pemantauan Cadangan Karbon

Choices of Approach • Gain-loss (process based)

approach

• Estimates net balances of addition to and removal from carbon pools

I

I

: Disturbance

C02 Uptake via growth

Harvest

use type

1 L\C = L\C gain - L\C loss L----- -- --------------

• Stock difference approach

• Estimates net balances of addition to and removal from carbon pools

C-stock t1

Change in land use system

C-stock t2

L\C = L\C t1 - L\C u

Pro11d1ng Workshop S1ra1eg1 Monitoring dan Pelaporan Plot Sampel Permanen d1 Provm11 Sumatera Baral 97

Metode Gain-Loss dan Penghitungan Emisi

Disturbance

C02 Uptake via growth

Land use type

Harvest

LiC = LiC gain - LiC loss

• C gain= jumlah serapan karbon selama satu siklus hidup sebuah sistem penggunaan lahan

• C loss= jumlah cadangan karbon yang hilang akibat proses ekstraksi, mortalitas tegakan,gangguanakan tegakan dan lain-lain

l!'f

Gain Loss dan Data Aktivitas

Matriks Perubahan Lahan (ha)

Hutan

Tutupan lahan yg tidak berubah

98 Presentas1

Hutan

100

2000

Ke bun Sawah Pemukiman

50 20 10

20 10 0

10 10 10

0 0 30

Tantangan Penggunaan Metode Gain-Loss

• Mengintegrasikan data pertumbuhan dan serapan karbon dari pengukuran tingkat plot ke estiamsi emisi di tingkat landscape menggunakan metode gabungan

• Mengintegrasikan perubahan penggunaan lahan pada skala plot kedalam estimasi emisi dan serapan karbon

Contoh Hasil Aplikasi LUWES

Pros1dmg Workshop Strategi Monnonng dan Pelaporan Plot Sampel Permanen [ 99 d1 Prov1ns1 Sumatera Barat

Step 1: Integrating development and spatial planning

• Inventory of current local development goals, objectives, plans through stakeholder discussion

• Technical assessment of locally specific livelihoods indicators, local potential and rural base-sectors

• Identification of areas of priorities for development

Inventory of land-based development in Tanjung Jabung Barat

• Concession maps were collected from various government insti_tution to improve the existing spatia l plan map

• Stakeholders focus group discussion was conducted to understand land use

expansion

New oil palm concession

100 I Presemast

Timbe~t~on ~ss1on

(:;

...

Current land use planning+ concession maps

Legend .. Ptotededarea

0t<PH.G Ql<PHP

.. llmber plort3Uon ate:. --.. ··

.. Dry 3gl~lM'e expansion acea

C:J Wei agrlcuftt#e expansion area

.. Stnlemtoe .xpanskm oreo

CXhtr alocallon

Land allocation based on spatial plan and concession map

Dry agricultur

e expansion

ar ea Other

W 16% allocation et \ J%

agri~ultur

expansion area 5%

Set tlemen-._ t

expansion area 1%

Oil palm

Mining area 0%

area 14%

KPH LG 3%

• More than 42% of Tanjung Jabung Barat area is allocated for oi l palm expansion {28%) and acacia plantation expansion {14%}

• Production forest under the

•

management of KPHP covers 29% of Tanja bar area

Land al located as protected area only encompassed 3% of Tanja bar area

Pros1d1ng Workshop Strateg1 Mon11ormg dan Pela po ran Plot Sampel Permanen d1 Prov1ns1 Sumatera Baral 101

Step 2: Estimating Historical Emissions form past land-based activities

• Data requirement:

1

2

3

4

5

6

102 I

- area of changes and trajectories of land use system, produced by land use change analysis through satellite image interpretation

- time-averaged carbon stock for each land use system, normally obtained from plot inventory, allometric modelling

http://www.worldagroforestry.org/sea/projects/tuls ea/in rmtools/RaCSA

Land conversion within each zone based on focus group discussion

r----:=-==~---i

M ining area

All land use within this zone will be cleared for mining activi ty. Conversion process will be conducted throughout the years. Reclamat ion process to rubber/oil palm is planned in the end of concession period

Timber All land use within this zone will be converted to

plantation area Acacia

Oil palm All land use within this zone will be converted to expansion area oil palm plantation

Settlement All land use within this zone will be converted to expansion area new settlement area

Dry agriculture All land use within this zone will be converted to expansion area either oil palm or rubber

Wet agriculture Prioritizing for rice field development within this

expansion area area

Presentas1

...

Predicted net emission at each planning zone

.... 3 .00 ~---------------------> ~ 2.50 +----L ...... g 2.00 +----··- - - -! Cl 1.50 +--­u .E 1.00

-;; a.so -1-.,o~o=s-o . "ill 0.00 4-'-~ .E QI

~ z

Planning zone

Step 3: Developing baseline scen·arios and estimating Reference Emission Levels

• Baseline scenarios can be: - Current land use and development plan

- Linear projection of historic land use/cover changes

- Projected land use/cover changes from modelling driver

• Calculate Reference Emission Level from the baseline scenarios by running simulations in ABACUS

Pros1d1ng Workshop Stra1eg1 Monitoring dan Pelaporan Plot Sarnpel Permanen I 103 d1 Provrnsr Sumatera Barat

Choices of reference emission level for Tanjabar

25.00 c 0

.:::.. c 20.00 0 ·u:;-"' ... ·- > E ro 15.00 QI ..c: ... -QI C" c QI 10.00 QI N >o '+; u ~ 5.00 :::l

E :::l u

0.00

2009 2013 2017 2021 2025

Year

..,REL-Historical based REL-Development plan

Emission share by zone in Tanjabar

Wet agriculture expansion

area 2%

Settle me nt expansion

area 1%

KPH LG 16%

area 2%

Dry agriculture expansion

104 I Presentas1

Mining area 1%

Oil palm expansion

area 26%

KPHP 10%

Timber plantation expansion

area 28%

• Based on development planning of Tanja bar, about 54% of its tota l future GHG emission wi ll come from conversion to oi l palm (26%) and acacia (28%)

• Three zones w ith highest emission share that should be prioritized for emission reduction activity are: oi l palm expansion area, timber plantation expansion area and ~

.v

~ ·

Step 4: Developing future scenarios, estimating opportunity costs and ex-ante emissions

• Profitability analysis of land use system as a bottom­up approach to estimate opportunity cost of reducing emissions through avoiding land use/cover changes

• Needs to be clear on assumptions taken in calculating NPV, limitation of financial ana lysis and open to other approach which includes economic analysis, multiplier effect, sectoral linkages and other indirect and non-monetary cost and benefit

• Use ABACUS to calculate the OppCost

Planned activities for emission re-duction in

Tanjabar based on focus group discussion

No Zone Development activity for emission reduction

Remaining forest inside KPHP will be preserved 1 KPHP as community forest and/or recreational forest

SCENARIO 1 (S-1) Preserving the remaining forest, jelutung

2 KPH LG enrichment on oil palm area

Commodity diversification inside the zone: Timber preserving and better management of

3 plantation smallholder rubber, coffee and coconut area garden, avoid conversion of primary forest

Commodity diversification inside t he zone: SCENARIO 2 (S-2)

Oil palm preserving and better management of 4 expansion smallholder rubber, coffee and coconut

area garden, avoid conversion of primary forest

~ Wodd >,wofri Q

Prosrdrng Workshop Strategr Monrtorrng dan Pelaporan Plot Sampel Permanen / lOS dr Provrnsr Suma1era Barat

c:

~ c:

·~ -VI ~ ·- > E re QI .J:: ... ..._ QI er c: QI

QI N > 0 ·;: u

"' :; E :::i u

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

REL and Emission reduction scenario of Tanjabar

23.00

21.00

19.00

17.00

15.00

13.00

11.00

9.00

7.00

5.00

2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 Year

• REL-Developmen plan+Sl

ff Ex-ante emissions and OppCots:

RELl & Skenario Direct, financial Opportunity costs for REDD+

RELl-52 REU-53

-60 Reduced missions as much as 19% associated

d ( with increased gain through land use effiency

• Reduce Emissions t 1

• Opportunity costs/reduced emissions ($/t C02-eq)

106 I Presentas1

r· I

Step 5: Developing strategies

• Negotiate and select strategies with highest emission reduction and lowest opportunity cost, target for emission reductions in each zones from particular activities, feasibility to implement, strengths compared to others

• Identify what policy, regulation and action plans required

Emission reduction-opportunity cost trade-off

0.25 ..,.----------- ----- --

0.20 +--~D-~19'------------

0.15

0.10 tJ Emission reduction

II Opportunity cost

Pros1dmg Workshop Stratcg1 Mon11onng dan Pela po ran Plot Sampel Permanen d1 Prov1ns1 Sumatera Barat I 101

Step 6: Translating strategies into action plans

• Reconcil iation of Development Priority Plan (of Step 1) with the LEDS (of Step 5)

• Identify nature of implementations and implementing units, stakeholders, form working groups to conduct feasibi lity assessment including enabling conditions, activities, costs, risks, financia l measures

Emission Reduction and Trade off

No Zone Development actMty for Emission OPCOST

emission reduction reduction

Remaining forest inside KPHP w ill

1 KPHP be preserved as community forest and/or recreational forest SCENARIO

Preserving the remain ing forest, 1 (S-1) 19% 10%

2 KPH LG jelutung enrichment on oil pa lm area

Commodity diversification inside

Timber the zone: preserving and better

3 plantati management of smallholder rubber, coffee and coconut

on area garden, avoid conversion of primary forest SCENARIO 10% 5% Commodity diversi fication inside 2 (S-2)

Oil palm the zone: preserving and better management of smallholder

4 expansio rubber, coffee and coconut

n area garden, avoid conversion of primary forest

108 \ Presen1a11

I

I •

Tanjung Jabung Barat Regent and its Distribution of Forest Functions

f~r~f)

I

- Natural Reserve I !:!) Protection Forest

~-0 •S t ia

cr::!l ProdUCllOn Forest c:J Limited Production Forest

1:i:J NabOnal Park

c:J Tanjung Jobung Baral Regent Boundary

Pros1d1ng Workshop S1ra1eg1 Monuonng dan Pelaporan Plot Sampel Pcrmanen d1 Provms1 Sumatera Barat 109