DistributedGeneration:TrendsandSolutionsinUS

InternationalForumonEnergyTransitionsSuzhou,China

October29-312016

劳伦斯引入大团队科学研究劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室：能源部第一个国家实验室

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LuisW. Alvarez MelvinCalvin OwenChamberlain

DonaldA.Glaser

ErnestOrlandoLawrence

GlennT.Seaborg

EmilioG.SegrèYuanT.LeeGeorgeF.Smoot

StevenChu

SaulPerlmutter

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EdwinM.McMillan

IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)

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Presentation Outline

• DistributedGeneration:trendsandpoliciesinUS• DistrictEnergySystemOptimizationTools• DistributedEnergySystem/Microgrid pilots

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Trends in Distributed Generation in US

• DistributedGeneration• avarietyoftechnologiesthatgenerateelectricityatornear

whereitwillbeused,suchassolarpanelsandcombinedheatandpower.

• Distributedgenerationmayserveasinglestructure,suchasabuilding,orbepartofamicrogrid,suchasataindustrialpark,amilitarybase,oralargecollegecampus.

• Solar,gasturbine/engines,fuelcells,biomass

• TheMajorsourcesofDistributedGenerationincludes• Rooftopsolar,fastestgrowing• CHP,thelargestsource,about8%ofpowercapacity

• IncreasinginterestsinDistrictEnergySystemswithmicrogrids toimproveresilience

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Growingat60%,expectedtoreach20GWby2020

• Diversified market: utility, residential, commercial

• 1% U.S. electricity supply in total (DG PV = 0.3% nationwide, 6% HI, nearing 2% CA/NJ)

• 2016 expectation: ~16 GW new installation

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MultipleDeploymentDrivers

• Fallingcostsandimprovingperformance• Policyinterventionatnationalandstatelevels• Businessandfinancinginnovations

• thirdpartyownership• privateloans,PACE,etc.• shared/communitysolar

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$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Installation Year

ResidentialNon-Residential ≤500 kWNon-Residential >500 kW

Median Installed Price

2015

$/W

DC

Module price index

Prices for Distributed Solar Continue to Decline

Average annual decline since 2009: 11% per year (res.) to 16% (large non-res). From 2014-15: 5% per year (res.) to 9% (large non-res.)

Median installed price series is based on data from 451,693 systems, assembled by Berkeley Lab (trackingthesun.lbl.gov). Module price index is from SPV Market Research.

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Even Lower-Cost Systems Are Commonplace:potential for further price declines

$1.7 $2.9 $4.0 $1.8 $2.8$1.2 $2.1 $3.5 $1.6 $2.10

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20

30

40

$0

$2

$4

$6

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Germany Japan USA Australia France

Residential Installed Price (left-axis)Small Non-Res. Installed Price (left-axis)Cumulative Distributed PV Capacity (right-axis)

GW

DC

2015

$/W

DC

Installed Prices for 2015, Excluding Sales Tax or VAT

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%

Freq

uenc

y

Residential

n=106,983

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Non-Res. ≤500 kWDC

Installed Price (2015$/WDC)

n=2,880

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Median

20th/80thPercentiles

Non-Res. >500 kWDC

n=243

Installed Price Distributions for U.S. Systems in

2015

Comparison of 2015 PV System

Prices across Countries

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Installed Price Declines Have Been Partially Offset by Falling State and Utility Incentives

ReductionsinrebatesandPBIssincetheirpeakequateto60%to120%ofthecorrespondingdropininstalledprices

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

2015

$/W

DC

Installation Year

CA (ERP, SGIP, CSI) NJ (CORE, REIP)NY (NYSERDA) AZ (APS, SRP, TEP)MA (MassCEC) All Other Programs

Residential and Non-Residential PVMedian Pre-Tax Rebate or PBI (Present Value)

Notes: The figure depicts the pre-tax value of rebates and PBI payments (calculated on a present-value basis) provided through state/utility PV incentive programs, among only those systems that received such incentives. Although not shown in the figure, a growing portion of the sample received no direct cash incentive.

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FederalPolicyDrivers:

• Acceleratedtaxdepreciation• 5-yearterm

• CleanPowerPlan• Potentialimpactsafter2020• Fateandimpacthighlyuncertain

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Source: http://news.energysage.com/congress-extends-the-solar-tax-credit/

• 30% investment tax credit (ITC)• Extended to 2021 (for projects

started)• Drops to 10% for commercial

entities, phased out for residential customers

EPACarbonReductioninPowerSector• Twocomponents:newfossilplants,existingfossilplants• Newplants:newcoaleffectivelyprecludedabsentCCS• Existingplants=CleanPowerPlan(CPP),32%reductionby2030

relativeto2005,complianceperiodbeginsin2022• Manycomplianceoptions:rate- vs.mass-based,newcomplement,

EGUvs.statemeasures,regionalcollaboration,set-asides,earlyincentiveprogramà decisionstobemadeatstatelevel

• HowwillREcontribute?Whoknows???• Dependsondecisions,includingby

states&obligatedentities• EPAestimate:growthfrom13%

todayto20%by2030• Supportsgrowthconsistentwithrecent

past:deployment“floor”

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StatePolicyDrivers• Renewables Portfolio Standards

• 22 States + DC have an RPS with solar or DG provisions

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• Net Metering and Favorable Rates• 41 states and the District of Columbia require

certain utilities to offer net metering to distributed solar customers as of the beginning of 2016.

• State Tax and Financial Incentives• State tax credits• State sales/property tax incentives• Up-front cash rebates• Performance based incentives

• 3rd Party Solar PV Power Purchase Agreement (PPA)• At Least 26 States + DC and Puerto Rico authorize

or allow 3rd Party Power Purchase Agreements for Solar PV

3rd Party Solar PV Power Purchase Agreement (PPA)www.dsireusa.org / July 2016

At Least 26 States+ Washington DC and Puerto Rico Authorize or Allow 3rd Party Power Purchase Agreements for Solar PV

Apparently disallowed by state or otherwise restricted by legal barriers

Status unclear or unknown

U.S. Territories

DC

VA: Limited within a certain utility's service territory

CO: With system size limitations

TX: With system size limitations

NV: With system size limitations

AZ: Limited to certain sectors

Authorized by state or otherwise currently in use, at least in certain jurisdictions

Guam USVIPR NMI

LA, MS, SC: Solar leases explicitly allowed

Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) with Solar or Distributed Generation Provisions

Renewable Portfolio Standard with solar/distributed generation (DG) provision

Renewable Portfolio Goal with solar/DG provision

www.dsireusa.org / August 2016WA: 2 MW DG (M)

OR: 20 MW PV x 20252 for PV (M)

NV: 1.5% (E) x 2025 2.4 for PV (M) UT: 2.4 (M)

for (E)

AZ: 4.5% DG x 2025 NM: 4% (E) x

20200.6% DG x 2020

CO: 3.0% DG x 20201.5% CST x 2020

MN: 1.5% (E) x 20200.15% PV DG x 2020

MI: 3.2 (M) for (E)

MO: 0.3% (E) x 2021

IL: 1.5% PV x 20260.25% DG x 2026

OH: 0.5% (E) x 2027

SC: 0.25% DG x 2021

Solar water heating counts toward solar/DG provision

22 States + DC have an RPS with solar or DG provisions

DCNC: 0.2% (E) x 2018

NH: 0.3% (E) x 2014

MA: 400 MW PV x 2020NY: 0.58% customer - sited x 2015PA: 0.5% PV x 2021NJ: 4.1% (E) x 2028

DE: 3.5% PV x 20263.0 for PV (M)

MD: 2% (E) x 2020

DC: 2.5% (E) x 2023

Delaware allows certain fuel cell systems to qualify for the PV carve-out

(E): Solar ElectricPV: Solar PhotovoltaicDG: Distributed Generation(M): Multipliers(CST): Customer - Sited

VT: 1% DG X 2017 + 3/5ths of 1%/year until 10% X 2032

More information on solar programs and policies: http://programs.dsireusa.org/system/program/maps

NetMeteringSupportsDistributedPV:DesignsVary

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Net Metering

State-developed mandatory rules for certain utilities (41 states + DC+ 3 territories)

No statewide mandatory rules, but some utilities allow net metering (2 states)

www.dsireusa.org / July 2016

KEYU.S. Territories:

41 States + DC,AS, USVI, & PR have mandatory net metering rules

DC

Statewide distributed generation compensation rules other than net metering (4 states + 1 territory)GU

AS PR

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UnderNetMetering,RateDesignIsKey

Californiahasbeenhometoamongthemostattractiveretailrates• Ratetiersthatincreasewithusage• Primarilyvolumetricrates,withlowfixedcharges

Ratedesignsthatarelessattractiveforsolargenerallyfeature…• Lowoverallretailratelevels• Higherfixedcustomerorstandbycharges• Demandchargestiedtopeakcustomerload

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Trends in Distributed Generation: CHPUSCHP Capacity:85%Industrial

Source: ACEEE, 2016. http://aceee.org/blog/2016/02/brief-history-chp-development-united

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Trends in Distributed Generation: CHP

• CHP• 83GW,~8%ofpowercapacity&12%generation• Additional40GWtargetby2030• InCA,theinstalledcapacityin2012was8,815

megawatts(MW),another6,500MWby2030• However,thefutureislessclearforCHPtomeet

thelong-termGHGtargetof80%reduction.

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Federal and State Policy Support: CHP

• Federal• Taxcredit:10%ofexpendituresofCHP(EE>60%)• DOE7CHPTechnicalAssistancePartnership

• CAincentives• SGIP

• conventionalCHPtechnologies$0.50/wattand• fuelcells$2.25/wattforbothelectriconlyandCHP

applications.• Thebiogasincentive$2/watt

• PACE:non-residentialbuildings

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伯克利区域能源优化模型简介BerkeleyLab’sDistrictEnergyOptimization

Tool

MOD-DEM:Microgrid OptimalDispatchwithDemand-sideEnergyManagement

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Demandside• Lowerpeakenergyusage• Bringhighercapacityfactorand

securityofdistributiongrids

Model concept 建模概念

Supplyside• Microgridtointegratedistributed

generationandstorage• Combinedheatandpower

Challenge:Coordinateboththedemandandsupplysidesinarenewable-penetrated,storageaugmented,DR-enabledmicrogrid

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Motivation动机

• DESasasmartprosumer:分布式能源作为一个智能能源参与者o Optimizeoperationbyeffectivecoordinationoftechnologies

(storages,CHP,etc.)inaccordwithrenewablegenerationanddemandresponsesignals

o Investigatedispatchstrategiesunderuncertainty

• DESasasmartpartnerwiththegrid:分布式能源是大电网的一个智能伙伴o Offerancillaryserviceforoverallefficiencyandgridstabilityo Encouragemoredemandsideparticipationinthemarketand

appropriatelyvaluingdemandresponse

• Retailmarketoptimization服务于能源零售市场

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CaseStudy:Excessiverenewablesgeneration案例：智能微网帮助消纳电网过剩的可再生能源

• Scenario:o Excessiverenewables

(wind/solar)→triggerspricedrop→DRtopreferelectricity

o DES:heating+electricloads(elastic/inelastic) Excessrenewables

→pricedrop

Day1 Day2 Day3

Day1 Day2 Day3

Day1 Day2 Day3

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CaseStudy:Excessiverenewablesgeneration

• Heatingbalance:electric+naturalgasboilero NGisusedasadefaultinmostof

thetimeo Shiftingtoelectricboilertouse

moreelectricityo Excessheatgenerationisstoredfor

lateruse HeattankischargedduringDR

ElectricboilerswitchedonduringDRtoconvertexcesselectricitytoheat

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分布式能源微网案例分析Distributedenergymicorgrid casestudy

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加州大学，欧文分校微电网/U.C.IrvineMicrogrid

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加州大学欧文分校微电网成本效益结果/U.C.IrvineMicrogridCost-BenefitResults

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• Costbenefitanalysisofmicrogrid technologiesusingmicrogridtools

• 运用微网计算工具对分布式微网各种技术做成本效益后评估

谢谢您

Thankyou!Visitus:China.lbl.gov

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