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AKalleMIDI MH3rry 133
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perrHpySI.C cyMMO"Ci rrOJIO)KHTeJThHOIX TeMneparyp B03;a;yxa. 3a YKa3aHHbI"Ci rrepHO;a;
nOBOImeHl1e ero ypOBIDI COCTaBl1JIO 12 CM (npH aMrunny;a;e B 27 CM). BHYTplfBeKOBble
TpeH;a;OI, BbUIBJIeHHble Ha KOppemm;HOHHOfi. q>yHICll;HH C aHOMaJIl1SIMl1 TeMrrepary
pOI B03)Jyxa, l1MeIOT C)];BHr B 19 JIeT - ypoBeHb OKeaHa HeCKOJThKO 3ana3;a;OIBaeT OT
HOCHTeJIbHO Xo;a;a TeMneparypbI.
CaMoe 3HallHTeJThHOe H nOBceMeCTHoe nOBbIIIIeHHe ypOBHSI MHpoBoro OKeaHa
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B H3MewnmoCTH JIe;a;oBO"Ci 06CTaHOBKH API<TIfi<H npOCJIe)J(JfBaIOTCSI 80-JIeTHHe
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CJIe)l;YJOm;eM pe)KHMe: llHK JIe}l;OBHToCTH - 90-e ro;IJ;hI XIX B., MHHl1M)TM - 30-e rO}l;bI
XX B.; CJIe)l;YJOIIJ;l1H nl1K JIe;a;OBHTOCTH npmneJICSI Ha 1982-1992 rr. l1 COxpaHSIeTCSI B
HaCTOSIID;ee BpeMSI. B COCTOSIHHl1 JIe}l;OBHTOCTl1 ApKTl1Kl1 yrraBJIHBaIOTCSI TaIOKe IUI
KJIWleCKl1e H3MeHeHHSI B HHTepBarre 30-45 JIeT, a pa3BHTHe 2000-JIeTHl1x I.I;HK.J10B, R _-_
lIaCTHOCTH nOCJIe}l;Hero, y6e;a;HTeJI'bHO rrOKa3aHO A.B.lIImITHW<0BbIM [49].
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134
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llPHPO)l;HOJ.1: ll;WKnWKH . .
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Ha"tlaBmet1:CSI C cepe)l;l1in,I XIX B. ~e MOm;Het1:ml1e CTMXlflf - MHOrOBeKoBot1: TpeH)l;
nOTenJIeH'IDI If BeKoBot1: pocr YBJIIDKHeH'IDI, TO rrpOTIfB060pCTBySI, TO 061>e)l;l1HSIXCb,
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nOBbllIIeHHoe BJIarOHaKonrreHlfe B oT)l;eJIbHLlX peI1ilOHax 11 nOCJIe,IJ;yIDIIJ;lft1: lfHTeH
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AxaAeMIDl MH3ny 136
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2010 r., --- TaIOKe He c.rryqafrnoe SIBJIeHue.
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reoq,U3Ht1eCKUX IDmeHuH, oco6eHHO 3eMJIeTpSIceHUH, B cpaJ3HeHUU CnpeALIAy:rn;uM
TeIlJIO-cyXUM nepuoAoM (1930-1978 IT.) He BeAeTCSI. Ho eCJIU TaKOBOH aHaJIU3 6YAeT
BbillOJIHeH, OH, BepmITHO, nOKIDKeT npUH~rm:aJILHLIe pa3JIl1qm[ B pa3Bl:lTI1U Ha
3BaHHLIX npupOAHLIX SIBJIeHUH 3TI1X nepUOAOB. .
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npOXJIaAHO-BJIIDKHaSI q,a3a KJIHMaTa npeAnOJIO)l(J1TeJIbHO 3aKOIPIUTCSI B 2010
2011 IT. COrJIaCHO paClleTaM pa3JIHtlHLIX aBTOpOB rpSIAYJI¥I5I Tenrro-cyxaSI q,a3a KJIU
MaTa 0603HaQUTCSI B nepuoA 2010-2013 rr. U npOSIBlITCSI KaK TeHAeuu;uSI BeKOBoro
Macnrra6a. Ee MaKCHMYM crreAYeT O)KUAaTL B UHTepBaJIe 2018-2021 rr., a OKOHlla-
HUe - B 2026-2033 rr. [25; 26]. .
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pUOOUlI.eCKU pa36ufJalOU1uxcfl fJ ouaMempaAbHo npomufJonOAOJKHblX HanpafJAeHuflx, c030aem fJnet.tamAeHue xaomut.tHocmu fJ npoflfJAeHuu K./lUMamut.teCKUX u opyzux flfJAeHUU. Ha caMOM oeAe OHU UMe10m fJnoAHe onpeoeAeHHylO pumMuKy!
TIpU3HaHHe UAeOJIOrHH npUpOAHOH :qm<JIWIHOCTH U YKpenrreHue ee MaTeMa
TH'tIeCKUMI1 paCtleTaMU, KaK U HHTerpaD;HSI nporHo3HLIx uCCJIeAOBaHl1H B CMe)KHLIX·
06JIaCTSIX, MOrJIl1 6LI AaTh HameMy o6ni;ecTBy MOID;HbIH I1HcrpyMeHT B nporHo3u
pOBaHUU CTUxufrnbIX 6eACTBuH, B npaBUJIbHOM nJIaHUpOBaHUU XO.3SlllCTBeHHbIX
crpaTerIDi [24].
Ha OCHOBaHHH U3JIOX<eHHOH Ko~enn;UU MHOrOBeKOBOH U BHyTpuBeKoBoH U3
MeH'tIUBOCTU KJIHMaTa AJISI coBpeMeHHoro npOrH03UpOBaHHSI :u;eJIeC006pa3HO npl1
3HaTb U UCnOJTh30BaTh cJIeAYIOII:J;J1e nOJIO)KeHIDI:
1. Cym;eCTBOBaHUe BHYTpUBeKOBLIX (30-45-rreTHUx) U BeKOBLIX (70-90-JIeTHux) D;U
KJIOB KJIHMaTa, KOTopLIe AocToBepHo nporH03upYIOTCSI.
2. «MHOroCJIoliIHOCTL» KJIHMaTHtleCKot1: D;HKJIl1KJ1 - O,IUIOBpeMeHHoe pa3BlITue
MHorOBeKOBLIX, BeKOBLIX U BHYTpUBeKoBLIx TpeHAoB, HepeAKo npOSIBJISIIOID;UXCSI
B OAHO U TO :>Ke BpeMSI B npoTHBOnOJIO)KHLIX HanpaBJIeHUSIx.
3. O:u;eHKa cOBpeMeHHoM KJIl1MaTHtleCKOH curya:u;uu(1979-2010 IT.), C OAHOH CTO
pOHLI, KaK crreACTBuSI MHOrOBeKOBOrO TpeHAa nOTenrreHHSI (Tenrro-cyxoH 3noxu
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137
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pe~~oCTD; B rrepByro Oqepe;a;b, 3TO KJIl1MaT.~eCKl1e 11 rl1;a;pOJIo~eCKMe IJ;I1KJIhI,
I1MeIOm;ue BhIpIDKeHH)'IO 3aBl1Cl1MOCTh OT 113MeHeHl1U COJIHe"llHOU aI<'I'lffiHOCTlil.
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pe3Ko. AHOMaJIDHO X<apKOe JIeTO 2010 r. B POCCl1l1 C ero sacyxOH 11 MaCillTa6HhIMl1
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COBemaHl15I, 30 OKT5I6p5I :- 1 H05I6p5I 1972 r. / TIoA peA. lIJIeH-KOpp. AH CCCP 3.P. MycmeAR. - IT.: fl1p;pOMeTeOl13,IJ;aT, 1974. - C. 307-313.
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