macro report - eadiv.state.wy.useadiv.state.wy.us/creg/macro_report.pdf · wyomingmacro report...

WYOMING MACRO Report

MACRO Report:Review of Wyoming’s Economy

Economic Updateas of March 31, 2018

The MACRO Report is a quarterly publication comprised of charts focusing on energy, employment, state revenues, and other indicators pertaining to the state of Wyoming.

WYOMING DEPARTMENTOF ADMINISTRATION & INFORMATION

Economic Analysis Division • State of Wyoming

Summary: Most Indicators Suggest Wyoming Economy Expanding.

Employment – Total nonfarm employment grew by 4,700 jobs (+1.7%) in February compared to previous year; mining (+2,100) recorded the largest private sector gain while construction (‐300) was the only private sector to report a loss. Energy – March average for Opal natural gas settled at $2.18 per MMBtu while WTI oil rose to $62.57 per bbl.; oil & gas rig count was 30 in March compared to 18 one year ago; February oil & gas jobs increased by 1,400 in a year‐ago comparison. Revenues – First nine months of FY 2018 sales and use tax collections ahead of last year by 18.8%; 10 of 12 industry sectors that were tracked recorded year‐over‐year gains; Converse County realized the largest increase in collections (+$15.2 million) in fiscal 2018 while Crook County had the largest loss (‐$0.4 million). After eight months of FY18, severance tax revenue exceeded last year by 9.6%. Personal income, home price appreciation, and building permits – Personal income for Q4 of 2017 saw an increase of 1.0% for the state compared to the previous quarter. FHFA’s purchase and refinance mortgages house price index reported a Q4 year‐over‐year increase in home prices for Wyoming of 2.4% while Casper and Cheyenne saw increases of 2.2% and 5.0%, respectively. State‐wide, single family units permitted year‐to‐date through end of February grew by 0.9% over the previous year.

2


Economic Activity:Jobs Added to the State in January and February 2018; 2017 Q4 Personal Income Saw 3.7% Year‐over‐Year Growth

3

• Business‐cycle indexes point to year‐over‐year improving conditions in Wyoming, Casper, and Cheyenne economies.

• State‐wide job recovery seen in January and February 2018.• March 2018 oil and gas rig counts reached highest level in three years.

• After nine months of fiscal 2018, year‐to‐date sales and use tax collections were outpacing fiscal 2017 by a margin of 18.8 percent.


Economy Metrics: Wyoming, Casper, and Cheyenne

4

Wyoming Casper MSA Cheyenne MSACurrent Year Annual Current Year Annual Current Year AnnualPeriod Ago % Change Period Ago % Change Period Ago % Change

(1) EAD Business‐Cycle Indexes 98.56 95.58 3.1% 95.78 93.62 2.3% 106.66 103.81 2.7% (2) Sales and Use Tax Collections (millions) $525.3 $442.3 18.8% $58.8 $52.8 11.4% $68.4 $59.9 14.2% (3) Nonfarm Employment (000s) 285.3 280.6 1.7% 38.9 38.1 2.1% 46.5 46.6 ‐0.2% (4) Labor Force (000s) 288.1 292.6 ‐1.5% 39.3 40.1 ‐2.0% 47.9 49.1 ‐2.4% (5) Private Sector Jobs (000s) 208.2 202.1 3.0% 32.3 31.6 2.2% 32.2 31.8 1.3% (6) Private Sector Weekly Earnings $839 $781 7.4% $924 $893 3.5% $803 $701 14.6% (7) Single Family Building Permits (units) 169 154 9.7% 17 14 21.4% 39 63 ‐38.1% (8) FHFA All‐Transactions Home Price Index 310.6 303.2 2.4% 276.8 270.7 2.3% 239.4 228.0 5.0% (9) Personal Income (millions) $33,183 $32,010 3.7% $5,599 $5,921 ‐5.4% $4,884 $4,825 1.2% (10) Gross Domestic Product (millions) $41,284 $38,268 7.9% $5,859 $6,633 ‐11.7% $5,485 $5,521 ‐0.7%

Data sources: (1) Economic Analysis Division, Dept. of Administration & Information, State of Wyoming (Dec 2017);(2) Dept. of Revenue, State of Wyoming, (state‐wide 4% fiscal year‐to‐date sales and use tax collections) (Mar 2018);(3) SA, (4) NSA, (5) NSA, & (6) NSA, (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES) (Feb 2018);(7) U.S. Census Bureau, (NSA), (calendar year‐to‐date Feb 2018);(8) Federal Housing Finance Agency, (Q1 1991 = 100.0) (NSA) (Q4 2017);(9) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, WY: Quarterly Personal Income (Current‐Dollar) (Q4 2017), Casper and Cheyenne: Annual Personal Income (Current‐Dollar) (2016);(10) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, WY: Quarterly GDP (Current‐Dollar) (Q3 2017), Casper and Cheyenne: Annual GDP (Current‐Dollar) (2016).


Coincident Indexes: Wyoming, Casper, and CheyenneYear‐over‐Year Percent Change in Index Values

5

Source: Economic Analysis Division, Dept. of Administration & Information, State of Wyoming.

2.32.73.1

‐10.0

‐8.0

‐6.0

‐4.0

‐2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Percen

t

Casper BCI

Cheyenne BCI

Wyoming BCI

Note: The Wyoming Business‐Cycle Index unites four state‐level indicators to sum up current economic conditions in a single number. The indicators consist of:1. unemployment rate2. private sector jobs and wages3. mining sector sales & use tax

collections4. and national park visits.The Casper and Cheyenne Business‐Cycle Indexes combine four city and county‐level indicators to sum up current economic conditions in a single number. The indicators consist of:1. unemployment rate2. private sector jobs and wages3. total 4% sales & use tax

collections4. and median home prices.

Through December 2017


Employment:Mining Driving Job Growth in Early 2018; Most Other Sectors Improving

6

• State‐wide employment gained 4,700 jobs (+1.7%) when compared to February 2018.

• Mining industry led the private sector by adding 2,100 jobs in February 2018 followed by professional & business services (+1,000).

• Casper realized job growth of 500 jobs (+1.1%) while Cheyenne lost 100 jobs (‐0.2%) in a February year‐over‐year comparison.


Nonfarm Employment: Casper, Cheyenne, WY, & U.S.Through End of February 2018 ― Seasonally Adjusted

7

Note: Shaded area represents U.S. recession.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. *Refers to pre‐recession peak.

107.8

99.0

107.1

100.1

90

95

100

105

110

115

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Index: Jan07=100

U.S.CasperCheyenneWyoming

Percent Past Past Peak* toChange 10 Years Year Present

WY ‐4.0% +1.7% ‐5.1%

U.S. +7.1% +1.6% +7.0%


WY and U.S. Nonfarm EmploymentThrough End of February 2018; Seasonally Adjusted

8

Source: U

.S. B

urea

u of Lab

or Statistic

s.

‐6.3

1.7 WY

1.6 US

‐8.0

‐6.0

‐4.0

‐2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Percen

t

Nonfarm Job GrowthPercent Change ― Year‐over‐Year

Wyoming

U.S.

9.1

‐11.7

‐3.0

4.6 3.30.9

4.2

‐1.7

‐11.3

‐2.3

4.6 4.7

‐20.0

‐10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jan18 Feb

Chan

ge in Jo

bs (00

0)

WY Nonfarm Job ChangeYear‐over‐Year Thousands of Jobs


WY Employment Change: Feb 2018 vs. Feb 2017Year‐over‐Year; Seasonally Adjusted

9

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.Note: The State & Local Government sector includes jobs affiliated with K‐12 & higher education and public hospitals.

# of Jobs % Change

State‐Wide Change: +4,700 Jobs or +1.7%Note: Values in parentheses represents shares of total jobs.

11.3%

‐1.5%

4.3%

5.0%

0.7%

3.5%

0.0%

1.9%

5.6%

1.4%

1.1%

3.6%

0.0%

‐1.7%

2,100

‐300

400

400

200

500

0

200

1,000

400

400

500

0

‐1,100

Mining (7%)

Construction (7%)

Manufacturing (3%)

Wholesale Trade (3%)

Retail Trade (11%)

Transp. & Utilities (5%)

Information (1%)

Financial Activities (4%)

Prof. & Bus. Services (7%)

Education & Health (10%)

Leisure & Hospitality (13%)

Other Services (5%)

Federal Govt. (3%)

State & Local Govt. (22%)


Casper & Cheyenne Job Change: Feb 2018 vs. Feb 2017Year‐over‐Year; Not Seasonally Adjusted

10

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.Note: The State & Local Government sector includes jobs affiliated with K‐12 & higher education and public hospitals.

‐0.2%

9.7%

0.0%

0.0%

3.7%

‐2.7%

0.0%

‐4.5%

2.9%

4.5%

‐6.5%

6.7%

0.0%

‐4.3%

Total nonfarm employment

Mining & Construction (7%)

Manufacturing (3%)


Retail Trade (12%)


Information (2%)





Other Services (3%)

Federal Govt. (6%)

State & Local Govt. (24%)

Note: Values in parentheses represent shares of total employment.

Cheyenne (‐100 jobs YoY)

1.3%

2.1%

15.4%

4.5%

‐6.4%

20.0%

25.0%

0.0%

3.8%

0.0%

2.3%

0.0%

0.0%

‐3.8%

Total nonfarm employment

Mining & Construction (13%)

Manufacturing (4%)


Retail Trade (12%)


Information (1%)





Other Services (4%)

Federal Govt. (2%)

State & Local Govt. (13%)Note: Values in parentheses represent shares of total employment.

Casper (+500 jobs YoY)


Energy: Oil & Gas Jobs Improve and Drilling Activity Expands at Start of 2018

11

• The March price of Opal natural gas averaged $2.18 per MMBtu for the month; WTI oil price rose to $62.57 per bbl.•Natural gas production (+6.1%) and oil (+19.2%) increased by end of January 2018 in year‐over‐year comparison; two months of coal production (‐6.2%) in 2018 was lagging 2017 output.•Oil & gas jobs were at 12,100 in March 2018, an increase of 1,400 compared to a year ago; oil and gas rig counts improved to 30 in March, 12 better than March 2017.


Natural Gas, Crude Oil, and Coal Prices

12

Source: Bloomberg.

As of March 22, 2018Fiscal Year 2018 Average Price:

$2.59Calendar Year 2018 Average Price:

$2.51



$62.83



$12.29

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Opal Hub Prices($ per MMBtu)

MarchAverage$2.18

$0

$25

$50

$75

$100

$125

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

WTI Prices($ per bbl.)

MarchAverage$62.57

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Powder River Coal($ per Ton)

MarchAverage$12.40


WY Natural Gas, Crude Oil, and Coal Production

Source: Energy Information Administration.

Cumulative Change YTD:Jan 2018 vs. Jan 2017

+6.1%

Cumulative Change YTD:Jan 2018 vs. Jan 2017

+19.2%

Cumulative Change YTD:Feb 2018 vs. Feb 2017

‐6.2%

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

WY Nat Gas Withdrawals(MMCF ‐ Monthly)

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

WY Oil Production(Thousands of bbls. ‐ Monthly)

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Wyoming Coal Production(Millions of Tons ‐ Monthly)


WY Oil & Gas Jobs and Rig Counts

14

Source: WY Oil and Gas Conservation Commission; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

20.6

18.4

12.1

30

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(000s Jobs)( Rigs)

Oil & Gas Jobs Oil & Gas Rigs CBM Rigs


State Revenues:Sales & Use and Severance Tax Collections Continue Recovery in Fiscal 2018

15

• After nine months of collections for fiscal 2018, sales and use taxes were $83.0 million or 18.8% ahead of last year; mining sector recorded the largest year‐over‐year gain.•With eight months of collections, severance taxes increased by $35.8 million or 9.6% in fiscal 2018 compared to 2017.


WY State‐Wide 4% Sales and Use Tax Collections: All Sectors

16

After nine months, FY18 total collections were $83.0 million (+18.8%) ahead of fiscal 2017. Campbell, Converse, Laramie, Natrona, Sublette, andSweetwater counties accounted for 78.9% of the increase.

Source: WY Dept. of Revenue.Note: Includes both the state and local shares of the state‐wide 4% sales and use tax collections on a cash receipts basis.

$57.3

$63.0 $62.1

$65.9

$57.1

$53.7

$65.5

$52.7$48.1

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Millions

5‐Year High‐Low Range5‐Year Avg. (2013‐17)FY 2018


WY State‐Wide 4% Sales and Use Tax Collections by IndustryChange in Percent and Dollars (Millions)Fiscal 2018 vs. Fiscal 2017 ― Nine Months of Collec ons

17

Source: WY Dept. of Revenue. Note: Includes both the state and local shares of the state‐wide 4% sales and use tax collections on a cash receipts basis. The Public Administration sector reflects taxes collected on the sale of new and used vehicles.

Note: Value in parentheses represents share of total collections. State‐Wide Change: +$83.0M or +18.8%

$ Change% Change

$36.7

$0.3

$3.3

$6.5

$16.7

$1.2

‐$0.7

$2.5

$0.0

$4.1

$6.5

$6.0

71.4%

2.7%

25.2%

20.0%

11.0%

4.1%

‐7.2%

15.8%

0.0%

7.1%

13.7%

32.5%

Mining (17%)

Construction (2%)

Manufacturing (3%)


Retail Trade (32%)

Transport. & Utilities (6%)

Information (2%)




Public Administration (10%)

Educ., Health, & Other (5%)


WY State‐Wide 4% Sales and Use Tax Collections by CountyChange in Percent and Dollars (Millions)Fiscal 2018 vs. Fiscal 2017 ― Nine Months of Collec ons

18

Source: WY Dept. of Revenue.Note: Includes both the state and local shares of the state‐wide 4% sales and use tax collections on a cash receipts basis. Value in parentheses represents share of total collections.

% Change $ Change

FY18 YTD Collections: $525.3MFY17 YTD Collections: $442.3M

$0.9$0.9

$12.8$0.5

$15.2‐$0.4

$2.2$0.0

$0.5$0.8

$8.4$0.9

$6.0$0.9$1.2$2.2

$1.4$13.4

$9.7$5.0

$0.8$0.0‐$0.1

5.3%18.1%20.8%

4.4%86.6%

‐8.8%11.7%

‐0.7%17.3%

12.6%14.0%

7.4%11.3%

56.9%5.8%

36.2%8.7%

69.4%23.4%

11.2%7.9%

‐0.3%‐3.6%

Albany (3%) Big Horn (1%) Campbell (14%) Carbon (2%) Converse (6%) Crook (1%) Fremont (4%) Goshen (1%)Hot Springs (1%) Johnson (1%) Laramie (13%) Lincoln (2%) Natrona (11%) Niobrara (1%) Park (4%) Platte (2%) Sheridan (3%) Sublette (6%)Sweetwater (10%) Teton (9%) Uinta (2%) Washakie (1%) Weston (1%)


WY State‐Wide 4% Sales and Use Tax Collections: Mining Sector

19

After nine months, FY18 total collections from the mining sector reached a total of $88.0 million, ahead of fiscal 2017 by $36.7 million or 71.4%.

Source: WY Dept. of Revenue.Note: Both the state and local shares of the state‐wide 4% sales and use tax collections on a cash receipts basis are counted; collections include both the mining and natural resources sectors.

$7.5$8.7

$9.8$10.9 $11.2 $10.6 $10.6

$9.4 $9.2

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25


Millions



WY State‐Wide Severance Tax Collections

20

Source: WY Dept. of Revenue.Note: Includes severance taxes collected on all minerals in Wyoming on a cash receipts basis.

$48.5 $46.3

$50.9

$51.1

$50.3

$51.7$53.9

$56.5

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120


Millions


After eight months, severance tax collections reached $409.2 million, leading fiscal 2017 by $35.8 million or 9.6 percent.


Other Indicators for the State:Personal Income, House Price Appreciation, and Building Permits

21

• Mining and construction sectors were the principle drivers of personal income growth for Q4 of 2017.

• Wyoming’s house price appreciation saw moderate annual growth of 4.1% in Q4 of 2017; the Mountain Division and the U.S. saw gains of 8.8% and 6.7%, respectively.

• State‐wide single family units permitted increased year‐to‐date through end of February 2018 in a year‐ago comparison by 15; single family units increased in Casper by 3 while Cheyenne saw a decrease of 24 through end of February year‐to‐date.


Quarterly and Annual Personal Income:WY, Rocky Mountain Region, & U.S.

22

Source: U

.S. B

urea

u of Econo

mic Ana

lysis

.

‐0.4

1.7

0.9

0.0

1.0

0.1

1.7

0.71.2 1.2

0.0

1.4

0.6 0.81.1

‐2.0

‐1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4

Percen

t

WyomingRocky MountainU.S.

Percent Change from Preceding Quarter

Wyoming saw growth in 15 of the 24 BEA‐defined industries in Q4 of 2017.

The mining sector had the largest contribution to total earnings in Q4 of 2017 with an increase of $34 million over Q3. Farm earnings had the largest decline, ‐$27 million.

4.03

4.04

3.95

4.03

4.55

3.36

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Index: 1990 = 1.00 Annual Personal IncomeWY PIRocky Mtn PIUS PI

WY Personal Income2014 Annual: $32.9 billion.2015 Annual: $33.0 billion.2016 Annual: $32.3 billion.2017 Annual: $32.9 billion.


House Price AppreciationPurchase‐Only Mortgages: WY, Mountain Division, & U.S.

23

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) – estimates using FHFA’s seasonally adjusted, purchase‐only house price index.

2017 Q4 vs. 2016 Q41‐Yr. Rate Rank

Idaho +11.5% 3Nevada +11.5% 4Utah +10.7% 5Colorado +9.8% 6Arizona +8.3% 13New Mexico +5.1% 35Wyoming +4.1% 40Montana +3.0% 46Mtn Division +8.8%U.S. +6.7%

Note: For the Period Ended December 31, 2017.

4.1

8.8

6.7

‐15.0

‐10.0

‐5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% Cha

nge from

Yea

r Ago

WyomingMountain DivisionU.S.

Through Quarter 4 of 2017


House Price AppreciationPurchase and Refinance Mortgages: WY, Casper, & Cheyenne

24

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) – estimates using FHFA’s not seasonally adjusted, all‐transactions house price index, that includes purchase and refinance mortgages.

Note: For the Period Ended December 31, 2017.

2.2 2.01.5 1.2

2.4

‐2.6‐2.0

‐1.5

‐3.3

2.2

4.6

6.4

5.1 4.7 5.0

‐4.0

‐2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4

% Cha

nge from

Yea

r Ago

Wyoming Casper Cheyenne


Residential Building PermitsState‐Wide Units: Year‐to‐Date End of February 2018

25

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

163156

150 154

169

2512

30 2714

YTD Feb2014

YTD Feb2015

YTD Feb2016

YTD Feb2017

YTD Feb2018

YTD Feb2014

YTD Feb2015

YTD Feb2016

YTD Feb2017

YTD Feb2018

Single Family Multifamily

State‐Wide ― Units Permitted

The number of single family units permitted year‐to‐date end of February 2018 increased by 9.7 percent(+15 units) compared to 2017. Multifamily units werelagging by 48.1 percent (‐13 units) during the same period compared to 2017.


Residential Building PermitsCasper and Cheyenne Units: Year‐to‐Date End of February 2018

26

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

The number of single family housing units permitted for Casperyear‐to‐date February 2018 increased by 21.4percent (+3 units) compared to 2017.

35 37

1914

17 18

0 0 0 0

YTD Feb2014

YTD Feb2015

YTD Feb2016

YTD Feb2017

YTD Feb2018

YTD Feb2014

YTD Feb2015

YTD Feb2016

YTD Feb2017

YTD Feb2018


Casper ― Units Permitted

3529 30

63

39

0 0 410 12

YTD Feb2014

YTD Feb2015

YTD Feb2016

YTD Feb2017

YTD Feb2018

YTD Feb2014

YTD Feb2015

YTD Feb2016

YTD Feb2017

YTD Feb2018


Cheyenne ― Units Permitted

Cheyenne’s single family housing units permitted for year‐to‐date February 2018 decreased by 38.1 percent (‐24 units) compared to 2017.


How To Find Us

• Economic Analysis Division

• Department of Administration & Information

• State of Wyoming

• 2800 Central Avenue

• Cheyenne, WY 82002

• 307.777.7504 or [email protected]

• Visit our website at http://ai.wyo.gov/economic-analysis

27

Contact: Jim RobinsonPrincipal [email protected]

WYOMING DEPARTMENTOF ADMINISTRATION & INFORMATION

macro report - eadiv.state.wy.useadiv.state.wy.us/creg/macro_report.pdf · wyomingmacro report...

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