mandatum investuok vilnius20150429
TRANSCRIPT
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Mandatum LifeBrangstančios Europos
akcijos. Kas toliau?
Investicijų plėtros vadovas LietuvaiMarius Dubnikovas
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100%
100%
100% 21,2%
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Mandatum Life priklauso Sampo grupei – vienai didžiausių finansų įstaigų Skandinavijoje.
Mandatum Life yra labai svarbus investuotojas, žinomas kaip tarptautinio lygio investavimo ekspertas, kurio investicinis turtas vertinamas maždaug 9.5 mlrd. EUR (2014).
Suomijoje ir Baltijos šalyse mes aptarnaujame daugiau kaip 300 000 privačių klientų ir 25 000 įmonių bei institucinių investuotojų.
Jūsų paslaugoms – daugiau kaip 500 investavimo ir draudimo specialistų. Turto valdymo padaliniuose dirba daugiau kaip 60 investavimo profesionalų.
Šiuo metu Mandatum Life mokumo rodiklis – 27.7%
Mandatum Life
SUOMIJAMandatum Life Darbuotojų: 380Privačių klientų: 250 000Verslo klientų: 25 000
ESTIJAMandatum Life Baltijos draudimas Darbuotojų: 45
Klientų: 16 100
LIETUVAMandatum Life Baltijos draudimasDarbuotojų: 37Klientų: 18 600
LATVIJAMandatum Life Baltijos draudimasDarbuotojų: 33
Klientų: 6 000
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Didelė Skandinavijos finansų grupė
Šiaurės šalių finansų grupių rinkos kapitalizacija, mlrd. EUR
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Brangstančios Europos akcijos. Kas toliau?
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Sprintas
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Maratonas
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Didesnis paveikslas
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ECB is the king
• Trukmė – 18 mėnesių• Kiekis - 1 000 milijardų eurų• 60 milijardų eurų kas mėnesį• Investicinio reitingo obligacijos
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Tereikia žinoti istoriją
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JAV skatinimas
• Per šešis metus išleista 4500 milijardų USD• Kas mėnesį daugiausiai 85 milijardai• Programa baigta.
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JAV obligacijos
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Scenarijus svarbiau nei aktoriai
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Veikėjai
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Žaliavos
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Auksas
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Valiutos tapo svarbios akcijoms
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ISM, Non-manu ISM,Euro PMI, China PMI, Global GDP
03.05.23 Market Outlook 18
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
US ISM Manufacturing US ISM Non-Manufacturing Eurozone PMI Manufacturing
China Manufacturing PMI World GDP (YoY%)
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ISM, Small Business Optimism
03.05.23 Market Outlook 19
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
6519
98
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
ISM Index (left) NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (right)
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Fed Funds Rate, 2y US Govt Rate
03.05.23 Market Outlook 20
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1619
82
%
Fed Funds rate 2y US Govt rate
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ECB Base Rate, 2y Euro Govt Rate
03.05.23 Market Outlook 21
0,00
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
6,0020
00
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
%
ECB rate 2y Eurogovt rate
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10 Year Government Yields
03.05.23 Market Outlook 22
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
720
01
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
%
US Govt (USD) Finland Govt (EUR) Germany Govt (EUR) Sweden Govt (SEK)
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US Payrolls, US Unemployment Rate
03.05.23 Market Outlook 23
3,5
4,5
5,5
6,5
7,5
8,5
9,5
10,5
11,5-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
419
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
15
%%
US Payrolls YoY (left) US Unemployment Rate (inverted) (right)
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Bus dešimtas kartas
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Consumer Demand y/y Indices:USA, EMU, Japan
03.05.23 Market Outlook 25
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1019
96 1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
%
USA Consumer Demand y/ y EMU Consumer Demand y/yJ apan Consumer Demand y/y
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US House Prices YoY, NAHB Index
03.05.23 Market Outlook 26
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2019
8519
86 1987
1988
1989
1990 1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996 1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
%
US New One-Family House Prices YoY (10-month MA, left) NAHB Market Index (right)
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US CPI, EMU CPI, Crude Oil
03.05.23 Market Outlook 27
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
620
06
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
$ pe
r bar
rel
%
US CPI Index (left) EMU CPI Index (left) Crude Oil (right)
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Ciklo laikrodis
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Investavimas tai maratonas, kur
scenarijus svarbiau nei aktoriai.
Investicijų plėtros vadovas LietuvaiMarius Dubnikovas