mass construction pulse - microsoft · pdf filequarter 2015 turner building cost index gilbane...

Mass Construction Pulse
Photos courtesy of Wood Partners
7.2015

7.2015
| TABLE OF CONTENTS |
Executive Summary. Leading Indicators for Permitting Activity (ABI)........................................... Results: Overall Activity and Analysis Description Boston. Cambridge/Somerville/Malden. Brookline and Newton. Framingham/Worcester/Northampton.. Quincy. Massachusetts State Property Long Term Discussion... Next Quarter Report Planning. Union Contract Expiration Dates and Other Points of Interest
1 4 5 7 9 12 14 16 17 19 19 20 | TABLE OF GRAPHS & CHARTS |
Average Percentage of Total Permits. Boston Summary Estimated Permit Value.. Boston Forecasted Estimated Permit Value.. Boston Summary Total Permits.. Cambridge Summary Estimated Permit Value. Cambridge Summary Total Permits Somerville Summary Estimated Permit Value. Malden Summary Estimated Permit Value Cambridge/Somerville/Malden Forecast Brookline Summary Estimated Permit Value Newton Summary Estimated Permit Value Brookline/Newton Forecast.. Framingham Summary Estimated Permit Value. Worcester Summary Estimated Permit Value.. Northampton Summary Estimated Permit Value.. Framingham/Worcester/Northampton Forecast.. Quincy Summary Estimated Permit Value.. Quincy Forecast. Expiration Dates for Current Labor Agreements... Massachusetts State Property Summary Estimated Permit Value Massachusetts State Property Forecast.. Expiration Dates for Current Labor Agreements......
5 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 13 14 14 15 15 16 17 18 20

AGC MA | 888 Worcester Street | Wellesley, MA 02482 | (781) 235-2680 www.agcmass.org
AGC MA is launching a new service to offer insight into the pace and short-term outlook of the construction industrys activity in various regions of the state. Over the first and second quarters of 2015, AGC MA gathered data on permitting in multiple large municipalities. In addition, the Architectural Billings Index (ABI), as published by the American Institute of Architects (AIA), was chosen as a leading economic indicator for use in analyzing that permit information, and developing forecasts for the near-term. Improvements to the economic data collected as well as to the number of municipalities included in the permitting survey are already underway. The data currently collected covers the eleven communities or jurisdictions listed in the pie chart above.
| HIGHLIGHTS of DATA COLLECETD SINCE SEPTEMBER 2014 | City of Boston over the last nine months has permitted approximately $2.6B of construction. We estimate that by the coming September (13 months). Boston will have permitted close to $4.0B worth of construction. The Boston area consisting of Boston, Brookline, Cambridge, Newton and Quincy, over the last nine months has permitted approximately $4.0B of construction; and we are estimating by the coming September the Boston Area will have permitted close to $5.8B worth of construction. Month to month deviation has been consistently minor in most of the communities sampled. Meaning the permitted dollar value of construction is more predictable. However, the exceptions are Boston, Cambridge and Massachusetts State Properties, which on average saw a month to month deviation of 10% or more.
| EXECUTIVE SUMMARY |
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| WHAT MAY BE DRIVING THIS GROWTH? | A study by the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank, Demographic Changes in and near US Downtowns proves what we are seeing on the ground. People high on the socioeconomic status (SES) index are moving back in close proximity to the central business districts (CBD). In 1980, 19% of the area around the CBD in the Boston area was made up of people from Top-Tercile SES neighborhoods. By 2010 39% reside in Top-Tercile SES Neighborhoods. This results in the increase of large scale high end residential units and all the associated business that goes with it. Consistent with the data below, is the growth, stagnation or contraction in the respective areas. Boston area Top-Tercile SES Neighborhoods: Worcester area Top-Tercile SES Neighborhoods: Providence area Top-Tercile SES Neighborhoods: Life Science and Healthcare have also been a driving force. Below are two charts from Peter Abairs talk on Whats next for Biotech?. The presentation describes in increase of over 5M square feet of Life Science laboratory space from 2007 to 2014. Youll see a record year for VC investment as well as Massachusetts Dominance in private NIH funds. It is highly recommended to review this presentation.
| EXECUTIVE SUMMARY contd |
1980 2010 19% 39% 14% 13% 21% 16%
|VENTURE CAPITAL INVESTMENT in BIOTECH |
| TOP NIH FUNDED INDEPENDENT HOSPITALS |
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https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/Newsroom%20and%20Events/Publications/Economic%20Trends/2015/et%2020150605%20demographic%20changes%20in%20and%20near%20us%20downtowns.aspxhttp://agcmass.org/news-advocacy/latest-news/conversations-with-peter-abair-director-of-economic-global-affairs-ma-biotech-council/http://agcmass.org/news-advocacy/latest-news/conversations-with-peter-abair-director-of-economic-global-affairs-ma-biotech-council/http://agcmass.org/news-advocacy/latest-news/conversations-with-peter-abair-director-of-economic-global-affairs-ma-biotech-council/http://agcmass.org/news-advocacy/latest-news/conversations-with-peter-abair-director-of-economic-global-affairs-ma-biotech-council/http://agcmass.org/news-advocacy/latest-news/conversations-with-peter-abair-director-of-economic-global-affairs-ma-biotech-council/http://agcmass.org/news-advocacy/latest-news/conversations-with-peter-abair-director-of-economic-global-affairs-ma-biotech-council/http://agcmass.org/news-advocacy/latest-news/conversations-with-peter-abair-director-of-economic-global-affairs-ma-biotech-council/

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| UNION CONTRACTS & OTHER POINTS OF INTEREST| In this section of the report AGC of MA will include other useful information that is not related to the permit forecasting efforts for each quarter. Other thoughts for this section of the report include technological innovations in the industry, forecasts for increases or decreases in construction material costs, and sector specific reports. For this report, membership expressed interest in highlighting the dates of expiration for each specific trade. This information is valuable in understanding how wage rates may change for project cost planning, subcontract development, and work delays in the unlikely case in which an agreement cannot be reached at the expiration date.
Expiration Dates for Current Labor Agreements Second Quarter 2015 Turner Building Cost Index Gilbane Building Company's Spring 2015 Construction Economics Report Demographic Changes in and near US Downtowns Whats next for Biotech? (MassBio) Massachusetts Property Information Viewer This report was produced by the AGC Code Committee. Specifically, the sub-committee on construction data. Members include: Author: Jon Fraker, Lend Lease Contributors: Mike Guigli, Consultant Adam Kreitman, Lee Kennedy Company Chris Scarvalas, Consigi Construction Michael Yanovitch, Town of Walpole Joe Kelly, AGC MA July 15, 2015 Please send any feedback and/or if your municipality is interested in contributing and receiving data to: [email protected]
| EXECUTIVE SUMMARY contd |
http://www.agcmass.org/agc/assets/Image/Code%20Committee/AGC_MA_LaborExpirDates%20(2).pdfhttp://www.turnerconstruction.com/cost-indexhttp://www.turnerconstruction.com/cost-indexhttp://info.gilbaneco.com/spring-2015-gilbane-building-construction-economichttps://www.clevelandfed.org/en/Newsroom%20and%20Events/Publications/Economic%20Trends/2015/et%2020150605%20demographic%20changes%20in%20and%20near%20us%20downtowns.aspxhttp://agcmass.org/agc/assets/File/News/MassBio%20AGCM-7(1).pdfhttp://massgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/OnePane/basicviewer/index.html?appid=47689963e7bb4007961676ad9fc56ae9http://agcmass.org/about/committees/agc-code-committee/https://www.linkedin.com/profile/view?id=433811062&trk=hb_ntf_ACCEPTED_YOUR_CONNECTION_REQUESThttps://www.linkedin.com/profile/view?id=36651292&authType=NAME_SEARCH&authToken=lRM7&locale=en_US&trk=tyah&trkInfo=clickedVertical:mynetwork,idx:1-1-1,tarId:1436467107139,tas:Adamhttps://www.linkedin.com/profile/view?id=27579921&authType=NAME_SEARCH&authToken=ZbTT&locale=en_US&trk=tyah&trkInfo=clickedVertical:mynetwork,idx:1-2-2,tarId:1436467147961,tas:Chrishttps://www.linkedin.com/profile/view?id=93475440&authType=NAME_SEARCH&authToken=bPMb&locale=en_US&trk=tyah&trkInfo=clickedVertical:mynetwork,idx:1-1-1,tarId:1436467195189,tas:Mike%20Yanovitchhttps://www.linkedin.com/profile/view?id=79641715&authType=NAME_SEARCH&authToken=XWo_&locale=en_US&trk=tyah&trkInfo=clickedVertical:mynetwork,idx:1-1-1,tarId:1436800153848,tas:joseph%20Kellymailto:[email protected]

Mass Construction Pulse
AGC MA is launching a new service to offer insight into the pace and short-term outlook of the construction industrys activity in various regions of the state. This effort is in response to heightened interest and several inquiries from the AGC MA membership and other industry stakeholders. Over the first and second quarters of 2015, AGC MA gathered data on permitting in multiple large municipalities with the aid of the building and inspectional services departme

mass construction pulse - microsoft · pdf filequarter 2015 turner building cost index gilbane...

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