megatrends boosting imagination and innovation
DESCRIPTION
How to use megatrends to trigger innovations, select strategic opportunities and define future visions Presentación sobre el uso de megatendencias para fomentar la innovación, ayudar a definir estrategias y visiones futuras. Congreso "Creatividad y Crisis" 16 de Noviembre 2012. Asocrea y Universidad Complutense de MadridTRANSCRIPT
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Gloria Álvarez Hernández, EMEA Sales Operations, Alcatel-Lucent
Smirt Collins, Market & Consumer Insights, Alcatel-Lucent
November 2012
MEGATRENDS
BOOSTING IMAGINATION AND INNOVATION
PALEOFUTUREONCE IMAGINED FUTURES
ARTS LITERATURE & CINEMA
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Source:
Paleofuture, concept invented by Mark Novak www.paleofuture.com; Villamard: http://www.urbanghostsmedia.com/2011/03/1910-vintage-postcards-
depict-year-2000/; http://www.flickr.com/photos/amphalon/sets/72157615623434624/with/3367567475/ ; Literature & Cinema: Google images;
Technology: 2012 @guirepso several resources @ http://www.scoop.it/t/paleofuture
TECHNOLOGY1999: 2010 NTT Docomo vision
2007: 2010 NTT Docomo vision, Old friends
2008: Nokia morph nanotechnology
2010: NTT Docomo vision
2010: 2014 Future of screen
2010: Forbes Your life in 2020
2011: A day made of glass
2012: Project Glass: One day
2009: LTE vision. Alcatel-Lucent
2009: Mocom 2020 vision
2009: Nokia vision 2015
2009: The Wireless Future of Medicine
KEY CONCEPTS IN SCENARII PLANNING
MICROTREND
Seed of Change, Week Signal
TREND COUNTER / ANTI TREND
WILD CARD MEGATREND
DEFINITION
IMPACT
•Mini trend• Uncertain future• Notable change with very limited effects, Low impact
•Maybe a starting
• Behavior Pattern in economic, environmental, social conditions
• Medium impact
• Reaction to a trend
• Low impact
• Low probability• High potential impact on society
•Significant global change, Inevitable
•Several trends collide and generate a megatrend
•Wide-reaching impact on society
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•Maybe a starting trend or only regional
on society
TIMING • Short /Mid term •Mid /Long term • Mid/Long term • Short/Mid/ Long term • Mid/Long term
EXAMPLES
• “moustache”fashion
• Secure information in Africa
• Self suficient house
•Mobile penetration
• Smartphones• Health applications
• Low “de-tech”services
• Open data vs Privacy
• “Rural turning”
• Tsunami• Terrorist attack• Earthquake
• Aging population• 24x7 Connectivity• Neo-urbanization
Source: Gloria Alvarez Hernández & Smirt Collins, Alcatel-Lucent 2012 based on several resources
http://ew.eea.europa.eu/research/info_resources/reports/Final_Literature_Review_Report_FINNov07_9473.pdf
Trends and Megatrends - Ullrich Lorenz & Alexander Storch, Umweltbundesamt – 2010
iKnow several studies – 2011
Alcatel-Lucent megatrends research
MEGATRENDS FRAMEWORK
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4
THE STORY OF MEGATRENDS
1980 Naisbitt invented
the concept
PEOPLE
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ORGANIZATIONS
PEOPLE
CONSULTING COMPANIESVENDORSGOVERNMENT/EUBUSINESS SCHOOLS
http://www.scoop.it/t/megatrend
MEGATRENDS RESEARCHALCATEL-LUCENT
• Methodology: Expert International Workshop
• Participants: ENCP Business School, Alcatel-Lucent and Telecommunication companies
• Results: Key megatrends impacting ICT sector, megatrends and trends map, market analysis*, blog series**
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* http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/knowledge-center/megatrends/
** http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/blogs/corporate/tag/megatrends/
7 MEGATRENDS + 2 IN PROGRESS
168 “ALWAYS ON” GENERATION
DIGITAL NATIVE ACCELERATION
ED-YOU-CATIONINDIVIDUAL CENTERED LEARNING
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7
REJUVENAGINGRAPIDLY-INCREASING LIFE EXPECTANCIES
NEO-URBANIZATION BLURRING BOUNDARIES BETWEEN
URBAN, SUBURBAN, AND RURAL
NETIZENS TO GOVERNMENT DIGITAL MEDIA EMPOWERING
CITIZENS
SUSTAINABLE BY DESIGN SUSTAINABILITY AS A
COMPETITIVE IMPERATIVE
B2SHE DEVICEOLOGY
DIGITAL NATIVE ACCELERATION VIDEO
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXV-yaFmQNk&feature=youtube_gdata_player
EN PROCE
SO
EN PROCE
SO
USING MEGATRENDSCREATE INNOVATIONS
• Mentoring programCreativity and innovation sessions
• Women professionals across different sectors Telecommunications, education, retail & food, consulting, services, entrepreneurship
• Techniques and methods
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• Techniques and methods
• Results During our sessions two of my entrepreneur mentees discovered tangible areas of innovation for their own businesses
USING MEGATRENDSIDENTIFY, ANALIZE AND ASSESS STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES
Ideation, imagination
84 opportunities identified
1
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Categorization, grouping, filtering, selection
8 strategic projects selected
2
USING MEGATRENDSDEVELOPE FUTURE VISIONS
New visions and business models
Neo-urbanization
Analyzing megatrends intersection - megatrends impact on other megatrends
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Sustainable by design
Ed-you-cation
168 (24x7 Connectivity)
Megatrendshttp://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/knowledge-center/megatrends/megatrends-neo-urbanization.php
http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/knowledge-center/megatrends/megatrends-sustainable-by-design.php
http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/knowledge-center/megatrends/megatrends-ed-you-cation.php
http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/knowledge-center/megatrends/megatrends-168-24x7.php
CONCLUSIONS
1. Analysis of Megatrends a key tool for sensing the future
2. Combining creativity and innovation tools together with megatrends tool can help to generate new visions, strategies and translate in product, market and customer innovations
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innovations
CONTACT DETAILS
Gloria Alvarez HernándezEMEA Sales Operations, Alcatel-Lucent
Twitter: @guirepso
COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Smirt CollinsMarket & Consumer Insights, Alcatel-Lucent
Twitter: @SmirtCollins
COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.