merfi nexus in methods and processes

What does the Nexus mean for Methods and Process? Dr Alex Smajgl

Mekong Region Futures Institute

Multiple sectors = Multiple disciplines

• Specific tradeoffs: • Energy-water trade-offs

• Hydrological models •  System dynamics models

• Water-food trade-offs •  Agronomic models and crop models •  Integrated hydrological models (primary prod è fish)

• Food-energy •  System dynamics models •  Land use change models

• Nexus-wide dynamics • Agent-based models • Bayesian Belief networks

MERFI - Mekong Region Futures Institute

Cross sector dialogue


• Process design critical for cross sector dialogue especially

•  If issues highly contested •  If issues very complex


The Ideal: Vision-based decision making


Visions to replace sector mandates = normative benchmark

Mapping visions & future scenarios Plausibility & desirability


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Des

irabi

lity

+

+

Example Vision for Mekong Delta

0.2$ha$rice+shrimp$farming$can$sustain$family$

No$damage$from$sea$level$rise$

No$environmental$pollution$

No$salinity$intrusion$

Irrigation$for$aquaculture$projects$provide$better$living$conditions$

Industrial$development$projects$provide$better$living$conditions$

Government$policies$respond$successfully$to$environmental$challenges$$+>$control$of$industrial$pollution$and$disease$

Government$policies$improve$a$poor$family’s$living$conditions$!


Ø  Improved environment Ø  Improved living standards Ø Reduced poverty

Vietnam(as(industrialised(country(with(high(living(standards(

Good(cooperation(between(Mekong(region(countries(

Well;managed(trans;boundary(water(resources(

Well;managed(hydropower(

Flood(peaks(reduced(by(hydropower(

Increasing(income(equality((

Less(environmental(pollution:((increased(awareness,(better(policy,(better(technology(

Protected(Mekong(Delta:(Dikes,(adjusted(cropping,(local(reservoirs(!


Ø  Improved environment Ø  Improved living standards Ø Reduced risks Ø  Improved intern. relations

Example Vision for Mekong Delta


Cause–effect assumptions


Understand and test underpinning beliefs


Revisit decision options with new vision & new beliefs

Sector optimum vs. Nexus optimum


ChaRL process: Challenge and Reconstruct Learning

Thank You


Dr Alexander Smajgl, Managing Director, MERFI [email protected]

Ø  Smajgl A, Ward J, 2013. A framework to bridge science & policy… Futures, 52(8), 52-58.

Ø  Smajgl, A., Ward, J., Foran, T., Dore, J., & Larson, S. (2015). Visions, beliefs… Ecology and Society, 20(2):15.

Ø  Smajgl, A., Toan, T.Q., Nhan, D.K., Ward, J., et al. (2015). …rising sea-levels ... Nature Climate Change, 5, 167-174.

merfi nexus in methods and processes

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