mlb prediction

32
MLB Prediction Group 25 陳陳陳 陳陳陳 2011.06.07 Intro CS - Project presentation

Upload: cahil

Post on 24-Feb-2016

63 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

DESCRIPTION

MLB Prediction. Group 25 陳乃群、趙冠琳 2011.06.07 Intro CS - Project presentation. MLB. Major League Baseball. Idea. Predict MLB games by own-made formulas . Analyze separately on pitchers and batters. Formula - batters. [(AB-SO) × (TB/AB)+BB+SB} × (H/AB)+HR Inning ( 局 ) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: MLB Prediction

MLB PredictionGroup 25 陳乃群、趙冠琳2011.06.07Intro CS - Project presentation

Page 2: MLB Prediction

MLB Major League Baseball

Page 3: MLB Prediction

Idea Predict MLB games by own-made

formulas. Analyze separately on pitchers and

batters.

Page 4: MLB Prediction

Formula - batters [(AB-SO)×(TB/AB)+BB+SB}×(H/AB)+HR

Inning (局 ) At Bats (AB, 打數 ) StrikeOuts (SO, 三振數 ) Total Bases (TB, 壘打數 ) Base on Balls (BB, 保送數 ) Stolen Base (SB, 盜壘數 ) Hits (H, 安打數 ) Home Runs (HR,全壘打數 )

Page 5: MLB Prediction

Total bases (TB) A single (一壘安打 ) -> TB+1 A double (二壘安打 ) -> TB+2

Page 6: MLB Prediction

Formula - batters [(AB-SO)×(TB/AB)+BB+SB}×(H/AB)+HR

Inning (局 ) At Bats (AB, 打數 ) StrikeOuts (SO, 三振數 ) Total Bases (TB, 壘打數 ) Base on Balls (BB, 保送數 ) Stolen Base (SB, 盜壘數 ) Hits (H, 安打數 ) Home Runs (HR,全壘打數 )

↑打擊率Batting average

↑Total Bases

(after adjustment)

Page 7: MLB Prediction

Formula - batters [(AB-SO)×(TB/AB)+BB+SB}×(H/AB)

+HR The scores that the batters can get

in a game

Page 8: MLB Prediction

Formula - pitchers

Starters先發投手

Relievers

救援投手 pitchers

Page 9: MLB Prediction

Formula – starters {[(BF-SO)/IP]×[(BB+H)/IP]×BA‘×IP/G}/

α+HR/G total Batters Faced (BF, 面對打者數 ) StrikeOuts (SO, 三振數 ) Innings Pitched (IP, 投球局數 ) Base on Balls (BB, 保送數 ) Games (G, 投球場數 ) BA’ (BA of the opponent, 被打擊率 ) α (own- set scalar for adjustment)

↑number of batter

the possibility that a batter can be on

base↓

↑BA of the opponent

Page 10: MLB Prediction

Formula – starters {[(BF-SO)/IP]×[(BB+H)/IP]×BA‘×IP/G}/

α+HR/G The scores that a starting pitcher may lose

in a game

Page 11: MLB Prediction

Formula - relievers Starters : scheduled

Discussing each pitcher separately Relievers : unscheduled

Use the average statistics

Page 12: MLB Prediction

Formula – relievers WHIP×(H/IP)×IP‘/α

Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched (WHIP) IP’ (average innings that the relievers may

pitch, depending on the starter) H/IP: the average hits that a pitcher may

allow in a inning

Page 13: MLB Prediction

Ratio 60% pitcher (starters and relievers)

Ratio of starters and relievers depend on the average innings that a starter can pitch

Starters 66.7% last-3-game 33.3% last-10-game

Relievers 100% Season

40% batter 62.5% last-7-day 37.5% season

Page 14: MLB Prediction
Page 15: MLB Prediction
Page 16: MLB Prediction
Page 17: MLB Prediction
Page 18: MLB Prediction
Page 19: MLB Prediction
Page 20: MLB Prediction
Page 21: MLB Prediction
Page 22: MLB Prediction
Page 23: MLB Prediction
Page 24: MLB Prediction
Page 25: MLB Prediction
Page 26: MLB Prediction
Page 27: MLB Prediction
Page 28: MLB Prediction

Result

Page 29: MLB Prediction

Result

Page 30: MLB Prediction

Future Adding more factors Standings (戰績 ) Home/away (主客場 ) Fielding (守備 )

Page 31: MLB Prediction

Goal 60+% success rate

Page 32: MLB Prediction

The End Thank you for listening!