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© University of Reading 2008 Modelling, GIS and remote sensing Part 2 –Opportunities from remote sensing 05 November 2008 Andrew Wade ([email protected] ) The University of Reading, UK (with slides from Colin Neal, CEH Wallingford, UK)

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Page 1: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

© University of Reading 2008

Modelling, GIS andremote sensingPart 2 –Opportunities from remote sensing05 November 2008Andrew Wade ([email protected])The University of Reading, UK(with slides from Colin Neal, CEH Wallingford, UK)

Page 2: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

Introduction• Need for scenario projections• Reminder of uncertainties in models• SCIMAP• New opportunities

– Digimap– Digital elevation data (LIDAR)– Land cover– Soil moisture– High frequency water quality data

• New approaches based on new data– New process understanding– New calibration methods

• Summary

Page 3: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

Upper Kennet Catchment

Input from livestock

Kennet and Lambourn

Sewage Treatment Works

Page 4: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

Equifinality in model structure and parameters

Wade et al., 2006. Journal of Hydrology, 330(1­2):185­203

Page 5: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

Temperature changes 1960­2100 for A2 and B2 scenariosfor 3 GCMs Hadley, CSIRO and CGCM2

A2 Emissions Scenario

7

89

10

11

1213

14

15

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Annu

al te

mpe

ratu

re (d

egC)

B2 Emissions Scenario

7

89

1011

12

1314

15

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Annu

al te

mpe

ratu

re (d

egC)

A2 Emissions Scenario

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Win

ter t

empe

ratu

re (d

egC

)

B2 Emissions Scenario

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Win

ter t

empe

ratu

re (d

egC

)

A2 Emissions Scenario

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Sum

mer

 tem

pera

ture

 (deg

C)

B2 Emissions Scenario

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Sum

mer

 tem

pera

ture

 (deg

C)

Wilby et al., 2006, Journal of Hydrology, 330(1­2): 204­220

Page 6: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

Percentage Change in Flows for 20s,50s and 80s for A2 and B2 Scenariosfor 3 GCMs: Hadley, CSIRO and CGCM2.

­50

0

50

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250

Julian day 2020s

Disc

harg

e (%

 cha

nge)

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250

Julian day 2050s

Dis

char

ge (%

 cha

nge)

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Julian day 2080s

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ge (%

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Julian day 2020s

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char

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e (%

 cha

nge)

A2 B2

Page 7: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

Jackson et al. 2007, Ecol. Modelling, 209: 41­52

Page 8: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

Climate scenario A2; CGCM2

Jackson et al. 2007, Ecol. Modelling, 209: 41­52

Page 9: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

Red = observation

Blue = calibration to observation

Green = P removal to 1 mg P/Lin final effluent

Page 10: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

UncertaintyGCMs

ScenariosPrecipitationTemperature

Hydro­chemicalmodels

StructureParameters

Other Input Data

Land managementPoint sources

Observations

Grab samplesAnalytical error

? Oreskes et al  1994.

Page 11: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

UncertaintyGCMs

ScenariosPrecipitationTemperature

Hydro­chemicalmodels

StructureParameters

Other Input Data

Land managementPoint sources

Observations

Grab samplesAnalytical error

?

Monte Carlo +Sensitivity/Uncertainty

Analysis

Page 12: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors
Page 13: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

Dealing with uncertainty• GIS­based risk approach

– The Sensitive Catchment Integrated Modelling AnalysisPlatform (SCIMAP)

• Remotely­sensed data– Land cover

– Digital Elevation Model

– Soil moisture

– Water chemistry

Page 14: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

Upper Kennet Catchment

Input from livestock

Phosphorus

Sewage Treatment Works

Page 15: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

SCIMAP• The Sensitive Catchment Integrated Modelling Analysis Platform

(SCIMAP)

• Risk­based assessment technique• Sediment and nutrient loss• Uses GIS data

– DTM– Land cover

• Lane, S. 2006. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 57(2): 239­257• www.scimap.org.uk• Universities of Durham and Lancaster

Page 16: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

Lane, S. 2006. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 57(2): 239­257

Page 17: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

SCIMAP –data requirement

Land cover

Digital elevation data

Page 18: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

SCIMAP –data requirement

Saturation Index

Risk of sediment or nutrient loss

Page 19: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

Maize grown in the River Kennetcatchment

Surface ponding in the Kennetcatchment

Page 20: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

SCIMAP –limitations

• Uncertainty in identification of Critical Source Areas– Land cover changes– Local barriers to flow movement– Groundwater­dominated catchments– Large river­catchments

• Instream processes• Multiple source areas• History of P in sediment

– Farming techniques

Page 21: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

GIS and remotely sensed data:state of the art

• Easy to access information in GIS ­ Digimap

• Centre for Ecology and HydrologyLand Cover Survey 2007

• LIDAR

• SMOS

• Water chemistry

Page 22: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

Digimap

• Ordnance Survey digital map collection

• Web­based, GIS based, data resource

• EDINA (National Academic Data Centre at U. Edinburgh)

• 10 m Digital Elevation Model

• 1:10 000 field boundaries

• Long­term changes in land cover –1931

• Agcensus

• OS Mastermap

Page 23: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

River Lambourn at LambournImage of 1:10 000 mapping

River Lambourn at LambournImage of 1:50 000 mapping

Not to scale: both images have been resized

Page 24: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors
Page 25: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

CEH Land Cover Survey 2000• LANDSAT data• 1km cell, 25 m available gridded from land parcels• New release 2007

– Linked to OS MasterMap– Better structural quality

Page 26: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

LIDAR• Light Detection and Ranging• Airbourne mapping technique• LASER based, measures distance to ground from

aircraft• Very high resolution mapping• 2m DTM• Height differences in centimetres• Used for flood inundation estimation by UK

Environment Agency

Page 27: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

• Example

Page 28: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

SMOS

• ESA Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity• 2­D interferometric radiometer• Measure microwave radiation emitted from the Earth’s

surface at L­band (1.4 GHz)• Moisture effects emissivity• 50 km cell

Artist impression of SMOS

Page 29: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

High frequency water quality data

• Total phosphorus, Northern Ireland

• New data from Plynlimon, Wales

Page 30: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

Monitoring Total Phosphorus

Jordan et al. 2005. Journal of Hydrology 304: 20­34

Page 31: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

Monitoring Total Phosphorus• Oona Water (96 km2)• Northern Ireland

Continuous TP analyserPhil Jordan, University of Ulster

Acoustic Doppler Channel ProfilerPhil Jordan, University of Ulster

Page 32: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

Monitoring Total Phosphorus

Jordan et al. 2007. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 11(1): 372­381

Page 33: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

Model comparison

• Nasr et al.,  2007. Water Research 41: 1065­1073• Oona Water (96 km2)• Clarianna (23 km2)• Dripsey (15 km2)• SWAT• HSPF• SHETRAN/Grid Orientated Phosphorus Component

Page 34: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

Nasr et al.,  2007. Water Research 41: 1065­1073

Page 35: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

Plynlimon, Wales

Prof. Colin NealCentre for Ecology and Hydrology

Page 36: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

10 20 30 40 50 60 70Day number (day 1 = 01/03/2007)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Cl (

mg/

l)

Rainfall Upper Hafren Lower Hafren

Chloride

Page 37: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

10 20 30 40 50 60 70Day number (day 1 = 01/03/2007)

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3N

O3 

(mgN

O3­

N/l)

Rainfall Upper Hafren Lower Hafren

Nitrate

Page 38: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

10 20 30 40 50 60 70Day number (day 1 = 01/03/2007)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9SO

4 (m

g/l)

Rainfall Upper Hafren Lower Hafren

Sulphate

Page 39: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

10 20 30 40 50 60 70Day number (day 1 = 01/03/2007)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6D

OC

 (mgC

/l)

Rainfall Upper Hafren Lower Hafren

DOC

Page 40: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

Hafren stream

0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

0.01 0.1 1 10

Spe

ctra

l pow

er

3 years of daily data14 years of weekly data

Wavelength (years)

Cl concentration spectra

Rain

1/f 0.97

Kirchner, Feng and Neal, 2000. Nature 403:524­526

Page 41: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

1 10 100 1000 10000

log(Period) Days

log(

Pow

er)

ObservedModelledObserved (m=1.1)Modelled (m=1.5)

Courtesy of Martyn Futter, Macaulay Institute

Simulated and observed DOC concentrationpower spectra ­ Dickie Stream, Canada

Page 42: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

High frequency dataWhere will it lead us?

• Better load estimates• Better understanding of diurnal cycles

– Biology– Evaporation– Catchment functioning; timing of inputs

• Better model calibration or model rejection• New models

Page 43: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

Summary

• Integrated catchment nutrient models– Needed for future projections– Data intensive

• Uncertainty• Opportunities from remotely sensed data in a GIS framework

– Land cover– Digital elevation data– Soil moisture– High frequency chemistry

Page 44: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors
Page 45: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

SCIMAP –link with Mastermap

Ordnance Survey data from EDINA Digimap

Page 46: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

10 20 30 40 50 60 70Day number (day 1 = 01/03/2007)

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

Br 

(mg/

l)

Rainfall Upper Hafren Lower Hafren

Bromide

Page 47: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

SCIMAP –data requirements

www.scimap.org.uk

Model structure

Page 48: Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing - PEER · Modelling,€GIS€and remote€sensing Part€2€–Opportunities€from€remote€sensing 05€November€2008 ... š Other€environmental€factors

Management• Model output

– Learn about possible catchment response– Models with estimates of uncertainty

• Other environmental factors– Water quality– Residence time– Solar radiation

• Socio­Economics and Politics

Catchment management decisions made by politicians notscientists