2014 Election Updates & Insights

NCFEF is a non-partisan, nonprofit organization that conducts impartial, objective research and analysis on

candidates, campaigns, voter attitudes and demographic changes that impact North Carolina’s political landscape.

Joe Stewart Executive Director

jstewart@ncfef.org (919) 614-0520

www.ncfef.org

@ncfef

NCFEF

2015 NCFEF Conventional Voting Behavior (CVB)

!  CVB = voters partisan disposition based on statewide races 2008 - 2014.

!  This is the voter party-preference

topographical map of NC

!  Suburbs full of ‘swingers’

!  Other factors: age (esp. Millennials), ethnicity, gender, nativity

2015 NCFEF Conventional Voting Behavior I-85 Corridor

2015 NCFEF Conventional Voting Behavior Wake County

Urbanization and Partisan Voting Performance

MECK WAKE

2012

Obama 60.8% 54.5%

Romney 38.3% 44.2%

2000

Gore 48.2% 46.0%

Bush 51.0% 53.1%

1988

Dukakis 40.2% 42.8%

Bush 59.4% 56.9%

Year NC

Population Growth

2010 9,535,475

2014 9,943,964 +408,489

MECK WAKE

2010 919,628 900,993

2014 1,012,539 998,691

INCREASE +92,911 +97,698

NC Counties with Population Loss, 2010-2014

Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau

NC Population Growth Not Even 49 NC counties have lost population since 2010

(2014 Census Bureau Data)

Party Identification, 1939-2015 (Gallup)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

39

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Dem % Rep % Indep %

New Deal Democratic Coalition

Realignment Dealignment Coalition Country

Dr. Michael Bitzer Catawba College

Estimated NC Voter Reg by Generation

2% 4%

8% 10%

16% 18%

24%

26% 27%

22% 23% 25% 25% 26% 26% 25%

25% 27%

45% 43%

41% 40%

36% 35% 33%

32% 33%

31% 29%

26% 25%

22% 21% 18% 17%

13%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Oct-15

Millennials Generation X Baby Boomer Silent

Dr. Michael Bitzer Catawba College

Dr. Michael Bitzer - Catawba College

North Carolina 2016 Election Dynamics

! President, US Sen, Gov on ballot in ‘battleground’ state = a LOT of political ads (candidates + outside groups) = high turnout?

! Turnout: 2000: 59% *2004: 64% *2008: 70% 2012: 68%

! Probable election landscape = Urban v. Rural, Suburbs in play

! Watch for ‘enthusiasm gap’ = one party’s base party voters dislike their party’s candidate(s) more than the other party’s base voters.

! March 15, 2016 Primary (Candidate Filing in December 2015)

! Watch for GOP v GOP Primaries (Establishment v Tea Party)

To win North Carolina, the Democratic nominee must re-create the Obama coalition from 2008

Usual Democratic Voters + Suburban Swingers + Voters <30 yo

To win the election, GOP nominee must win NC

NC 2016 Election Dynamics: President

NC 2016 Election Dynamics: US Senate

!  Rated among vulnerable GOP incumbents

! NC CVB = 0, so statewide races generally tend to be competitive

!  2016 = $200+ million in outside spending

!  Suburbs = battleground

!  Do Democrats get an A List candidate?

! NC CVB = 0, so statewide races generally tend to be competitive

!  Suburbs = battleground

!  2016 = $100+ million in outside spending

!  Likely to get ugly quick

NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Governor

NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Factors to Watch

! Voter attitude (NC influenced by

‘national attitude’)

! Outside money

! Who best reaches the

‘undecideds’ (Suburban

Swingers)

NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Factors to Watch

! Functioning Democratic Party?

! Factional fighting within GOP

! Perceptions of economy and

accomplishments will shape

voter attitudes on incumbents

2014 Election Updates & Insights

Questions?

Joe Stewart Executive Director

jstewart@ncfef.org (919) 614-0520

www.ncfef.org

@ncfef

NCFEF