nachev master thesis
TRANSCRIPT
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
1/106
YNEWI_PEVU MG G_EOMY_C
GJ@YAVU MG I@MNMKE@P JNF PM@EJA P@EIN@IP
FIXJ_VKINV MG I@MNMKE@P
G_EOMY_C $PSEV\I_AJNF%
Pwess kmnitjry pmae`y jnf ets
ekpae`jtemns mn tdi i`mnmky en
tdi jgtirkjtd mg tdi camoja `reses
Kjstir Vdises
Jutdmr< Cimrce Nj`div
Pupirvesmr< Xrmg. Fr Pircem _msse! Xd.F.
Greomurc! Kjy ?8:0
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
2/106
?
@mntints
Jostrj`t..........................................................................................................................7
Entrmfu`temn...................................................................................................................3
:. Vdi kjen gj`tmrs mg tdi camoja `reses jnf tdier ekpj`t mn Pwetzirajnf....5
:.:. Vdi YP genjn`eja `reses........................................................................ .....................................5
:.?. Iurmpis smviriecn fiot `reses............................................................................................:?
:.0. Pwess i`mnmke` pirgmrkjn`i furenc tdi `resis............................................................:7
:.0.:. Pwess gmriecn trjfi en tekis mg vmajteai ix`djnci rjtis..... ...... ..... ...... ..... ...... ....:7
:.0.?. Vdi Pwess ojajn`i mg pjykints........................................................ .........................:3
:.0.0. Pwess CFX........................................................................................................................?8
:.0.6. Ynikpamykint rjtis......................................................... .............................................??
:.0.9. Xrmpirty kjrbit........................................................ .......................................................?0
:.6. Gj`tmrs gmr tdi jppri`ejtemn mg tdi Pwess grjn`.............................................................?6
:.9. Essuis `mn`irnenc tdi ix`djnci rjti gammr mn tdi Pwess grjn`.................................0?
?. Vdi resbs gmr pre`i jnf genjn`eja stjoeaety en Pwetzirajnf..........................06
?.:. _esbs gmr pre`i stjoeaety en Pwetzirajnf............................................................................09
?.:.:. Vdi pre`i stjoeaety grjkiwmrb....................................................................................09
?.:.?. Kmnitjry pmae`y enstrukints......................................................................................07
?.:.0. Xrmj`tevi kmnitjry kijsuris jnf tdier iggi`ts mn pre`i stjoeaety..................04
?.:.6. Vdi guturi mg pre`i stjoeaety en Pwetzirajnf...........................................................68
?.?. _esbs gmr genjn`eja stjoeaety..................................................................................................9:
?.?.:. Kmnitjry pmae`y iggi`ts mn genjn`eja stjoeaety en Pwetzirajnf.........................9?
?.?.?. Pystike` resb gmr tdi wdmai Pwess i`mnmky.........................................................96
?.?.0. Fmkiste` resbs gmr Pwess genjn`eja stjoeaety..........................................................99
?.?.6. Xmae`y enstrukints tm ketecjti kifeuk+tirk resbs.............................................95
?.?.9. Ixtirnja resbs gmr genjn`eja stjoeaety en Pwetzirajnf............................................7:
0. Pwess Njtemnja Ojnbs enfipinfin`i..............................................................74
0.:. Vdi prmpir ri`mcnetemn mg `intrja ojnb enfipinfin`i................................................75
0.?. Vdi kijsurikint mg `intrja ojnb enfipinfin`i..........................................................3:
0.0. Kmnitjry pmae`y enfipinfin`i j``mrfenc tm Kunfiaas ekpmsseoai trenety ....4:
0.6.
Vdi igge`j`y mg PNOs enfipinfin`i jnf ets ekpae`jtemns........................................49
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
3/106
0
0.6.:. Xre`i aivia......................................................... ............................................................. ....49
0.6.?. Xrmfu`temn.........................................................................................................................43
0.6.0. Vrjfi ojajn`i jnf ixpmrts...........................................................................................45
0.6.6. Vmuresk enfustry...................................................... .......................................................50
0.9. Gmriecn risirvis pur`djsis en j pre`i stjoeaety grjkiwmrb...... ...... ..... ...... ..... ...... ..... .59
@mn`ausemn....................................................................................................................54
_igirin`is.................................................................................................................:88
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
4/106
6
Aest mg gecuris
Gecuri :. Omnf yeiafs mg vjremus `muntreis! ?883+:0 ......................................... :0
Gecuri ?. Pecdt fipmsets en Pwetzirajnf jnf IY_-@DG ix`djnci rjti!
?883+:?............................................................................................... :9
Gecuri 0. Pwess `urrint j``munts! nit! ?88?+:: ................................................. :5
Gecuri 6. Jnnuja Pwess CFX crmwtd `mntreoutemns! ?88?+:? ........................... ?:
Gecuri 9. Ynikpamykint rjti en Pwetzirajnf! tdi Ynetif Ptjtis jnf tdi iurm
jrij! ?88?+?8:? .................................................................................. ??
Gecuri 7. Pwess prmpirty pre`i enfe`is! rija! :538+?8:? ................................... ?0
Gecuri 3. Ivmautemn mg IY_-@DG jnf YPF-@DG ix`djnci rjtis! ?883+:0 ..... ?9
Gecuri 4. Ivmautemn mg tdi Pwess grjn` en tirks mg resb jppiteti! ?8:8+:: ........ ?7
Gecuri 5. _ija entirist rjtis en Pwetzirajnf! tdi iurm jrij! Ynetif Ptjtis! jnf
Ynetif Bencfmk! :559+?8:? .............................................................. ?4
Gecuri :8. Ainfenc oy `mkkir`eja ojnbs! ?88?+:: ............................................ ?5
Gecuri :: .Pwess grjn` fevircin`i tm gjer vjaui! ?888+:? ................................... 08
Gecuri :?. Ojajn`i mg pjykints! risirvi jssits mg PNO! jnf IY_-@DG ix`djnci
rjti! ?883+:?....................................................................................... 0:
Gecuri :0. Pwess Aeomr tjrcit rjnci! ?886+:? ..................................................... 04
Gecuri :6 Vdi PNO engajtemn gmri`jst mg Piptikoir ?8:: jnf mg Fi`ikoir ?8::
wetd Aeomr jt 8.88 pir `int ................................................................. 68
Gecuri :9. :8+yijr Pwess cmvirnkint omnf yeiafs jnf tirk prikeuks! :554+
?8:: .................................................................................................... 6?
Gecuri :7. Gif ojajn`i sdiit ixpjnsemns! Luni ?884 + Luni ?8::! jssits sefi en
keaaemns mg fmaajrs............................................................................... 67
Gecuri :3. Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb ojajn`i sdiit ixpjnsemns! Piptikoir ?883 +
Kjr`d ?8:0! jssits sefi en oeaaemns mg Pwess grjn`s ........................... 67
Gecuri :4. YP @XE jnf Pwess @XE! :555+?8:0 .................................................... 63
Gecuri :5. Gifirja gunfs rjti jnf Pwess 0+kmntd Aeomr! :555+?8:0 .................. 64
Gecuri ?8. @jpj`ety uteaezjtemn en tdi Ynetif Ptjtis! ?883+:? ............................. 65
Gecuri ?:. @jpj`ety uteaezjtemn en Pwetzirajnf! ?884+:? ..................................... 65
Gecuri ??. Xrm+`y`ae`ja oidjvemur jnf systike` resb ........................................... 96
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
5/106
9
Gecuri ?0. Dmki pre`is riajtevi tm dmusidmaf en`mki en Pwetzirajnf!
:548+?8:?........................................................................................... 93
Gecuri ?6. Kmrtcjci vmauki riajtevi tm en`mki en Pwetzirajnf! :548+?8:? ...... 93
Gecuri ?9. Cmjas jnf enstrukints unfir tdi rjnci mg ke`rm+! kj`rm+ prufinteja
jnf kmnitjry pmae`y jpprmj`dis ........................................................ 95
Gecuri ?7. Ixpmrt+wiecdtif rija ix`djnci rjti mg tdi Pwess grjn`! :558+?8:0 .. 7:
Gecuri ?3. Ptm`b enfixis! Luay ?883 + Jprea ?8:0 ............................................... 70
Gecuri ?4. Njtemnja cmvirnkint fiot+tm+CFX rjtems! vjremus `muntreis!
?883+:?............................................................................................... 76
Gecuri ?5. Pmviriecn @FP prikej! en ojses pments pir jnnuk! gmr 9 yijrs @FP! js
mg Jprea ?8:0 ...................................................................................... 79
Gecuri 08. Iurmzmni jnf Pwess entirojnb kjrbits fynjke`s! 0+kmntd AEOM_!
Ljnujry ?8:8 Kjy ?8:0 .................................................................. 40
Gecuri 0:. Pwess engajtemn oy mrecen! ?88:+:? ..................................................... 47
Gecuri 0?. Pecdt fipmsets! @XE! jnf Pwess grjn` ix`djnci rjti! ?883+:? ........... 43
Gecuri 00 Pwess Xur`djsenc Kjnjcirs Enfix jnf jnnuja CFX crmwtd rjti!
:559+?8:0........................................................................................... 44
Gecuri 06. @DG-IY_ ix`djnci rjti jnf Pwess trjfi ojajn`i! ?888+:? ............. 45
Gecuri 09. Pwess ixpmrts jnf trjfi ojajn`i tmwjrfs Iurmpi! ?8:8+:0 ............... 5?
Gecuri 07. Pwess tmuresk grmk IY:9 cuists! mvirnecdt stjys en :888s!
?8:8+:0............................................................................................... 50
Gecuri 03. Kmniy suppay! gmriecn `urrin`y envistkints! jnf @XE en Pwetzirajnf!
?883+:0............................................................................................... 57
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
6/106
7
Jostrj`t
Vdes kjstirs tdises ixjkenis tdi kmnitjry pmae`y mg tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb
jnf ets ekpae`jtemns gmr tdi Pwess i`mnmky jgtir omtd tdi YP `rifet `reses jnf tdi
Iurmpijn smviriecn fiot `reses.
Vdi jek es tm sdmw wdjt jri tdi i`mnmke` si`tmrs kmst siviriay jggi`tif oy
tdi camoja `reses jnf wdjt jri tdi `msts jnf oinigets mg tdi j`temns `jrreif mut oy
tdi kmnitjry jutdmrety en Pwetzirajnf.
Vdi purpmsi es tm pment mut tdi `rifeoeaety mg tdi enfipinfintay tjbin kijsuris
mg tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb en ricjrf tm pre`i! genjn`eja! jnf i`mnmke` stjoeaety en
Pwetzirajnf.
Vdes wmrb prmvefis vjremus jnjaysis mg kjny i`mnmke` enfe`jtmrs jnf tdier
fynjke`s en tdi jgtirkjtd mg tdi `resis< jn jnjayses mg tdi gj`tmrs tdjt aif tm tdi
jppri`ejtemn mg tdi Pwess grjn`2 jnmtdir jnjayses mg tdi resbs jssm`ejtif wetd pre`i
stjoeaety jnf ricjrfenc fmkiste` jnf ixtirnja resbs gmr genjn`eja stjoeaety en
Pwetzirajnf2 twm jnjaysis mg tdi enfipinfin`i jnf igge`j`y mg tdi Pwess Njtemnja
Ojnb kmnitjry pmae`y ricjrfenc ets i`mnmke` iggi`ts mn tdi Pwess trjfi ojajn`i!
prmfu`temn! ixpmrts jnf tmuresk enfustreis. Ajstay! tdi tdises jnjayzis kmnitjry
pmae`y `rifeoeaety js ricjrfs ets joeaety tm insuri pre`i stjoeaety.
Vdi tdises prmvefis j nijr+tirk cuefjn`i mg tdi guturi pjtd mg fiviampkint mg
tdi pre`i aivia en Pwetzirajnf jnf tdirigmri tm prife`t tdi gerst upwjrf `mrri`temn
en Pwess pmae`y rjtis mg entirist. En jffetemn! et prmvefis sivirja ri`mkkinfjtemns
en mrfir gmr tdi Pwess `intrja ojnb tm djvi pmaete`ja jnf i`mnmke` enfipinfin`i.
En aecdt mg tdes wmrb! et `jn oi `mn`aufif tdjt tdi enfipinfint kmnitjry pmae`y
mg tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb djs jawjys oiin `rifeoai jnf j``urjtiay suppmrtenctdi fiviampkint mg tdi Pwess i`mnmky! ietdir vej ets djkpirenc iggi`t mn tdi
figajtemnjry prissuris mrecenjtenc grmk tdi camoja `resis mr oy prmvefenc `irtjenty
jnf enferi`t suppmrt gmr i`mnmke` j`tevety en Pwetzirajnf.
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
7/106
3
Entrmfu`temn
Furenc tdi camoja `reses! kmniy kjrbit `mnfetemns en Pwetzirajnf djvi rij`dif
tdier iggi`tevi omunf. Js mg tdi inf mg ?8:?! tdi rija entirist rjti mg 8 pir`int!
jamnc wetd tdi secnege`jnt jkmunt mg gmriecn `urrin`y risirvi mg 60? oeaaemn Pwess
grjn`s $iquja tm 39 pir`int mg Pwess CFX%! `mnstetuti jn ix`iptemnja kmnitjry
setujtemn! fisirvenc tdmrmucd ixjkenjtemn gmr ets ekpae`jtemn mn tdi wdmai Pwess
i`mnmky. Vdes wmrb jnjayzis tdi gj`tmrs tdjt aif tm tdi `urrint setujtemn wdiri tdi
kmrtcjci amjn! rija istjti! jnf omnf kjrbits en Pwetzirajnf djvi oiin cjenenc
kmkintuk. Vdirigmri! et es nmt tm oi unixpi`tif tdjt pirdjps `mrri`temns mg smki
mg tdisi kjrbits kecdt m``ur! eg tdi camoja jnf fmkiste` kmniy kjrbit `mnfetemns
`djnci.
En mrfir tm jssiss tdi grjceaety mg tdi Pwess i`mnmky! et es ekpmrtjnt tm
unfirstjnf tdi unequi pirgmrkjn`i mg tdi Pwess i`mnmky mvir tdi ri`int yijrs
jnf tdin tm kijsuri tdi iggi`ts mn pre`i aivia stjoeaety! i`mnmky pirgmrkjn`i! jnf
genjn`eja stjoeaety.
Vdes kjstirs tdises es fevefif entm tdrii `djptirs. Vdi gerst `djptir gm`usis mn
tdi ekpj`t tdi camoja `reses djs djf mn tdi Pwess i`mnmky. Kjny gunfjkintja
enfe`jtmrs sdmw tdi Pwess unequiniss! ispi`ejaay js tdi ix`djnci rjti mg tdi Pwess
grjn` jppri`ejtif oy 00 pir`int jcjenst tdi iurm en tdi `mursi mg tdi `reses! wdeai
tdi unikpamykint rjti en Pwetzirajnf rjesif tm 6 pir`int en ?885.
Vdi si`mnf `djptir prmvefis feggirint jnjaysis ricjrfenc tdi grjceaety mg tdi
Pwess genjn`eja systik jnf tdi systike` resb mrecenjtenc grmk ets kj`rmi`mnmke`
ekpmrtjn`i. Js `urrintay tdiri jri nm resbs en Pwetzirajnf ricjrfenc j rija istjti
ouooai! nm engajtemnjry prissuris jnf nm resb ixpmsuri mg Pwess ojnbs tmwjrfs tdi
pirepdirja Iurmpijn `muntreis! tdi `djptir jrcuis tdjt tdi Pwess genjn`eja systik
es `urrintay mn j smunf gmmtenc. Vm gurtdir jnjayzi jcints ixpi`tjtemns ricjrfenc
`djncis en Pwess kmnitjry pmae`y stjn`i jnf fmwnwjrf pre`i `mrri`temns! tdi
fi`mkpmsetemn jnjayses mg tdi :8+yijr Pwess cmvirnkint omnf! jamnc wetd tdi
ritrmspi`tevi `mkpjresmn mg tdi Pwess jnf YP gunfjkintjas mvir teki! prmvefi
efinte`ja gmri`jsts mg j pre`i aivia tdrisdmaf orij`d js ijray js en ?8:9. Mn tdi
ojses mg su`d risuats jnf cevin tdi jssukptemn mg nm prikjturi gj`tmrs engauin`enc
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
8/106
4
tdi kmniy kjrbit! tdi PNO es ixpi`tif tm rjesi ets pmae`i rjti mg entirist js ijray
js nijr tdi inf mg ?8:6.
Vdi tderf `djptir ixjkenis tdi enfipinfin`i mg tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb jnf
ets `rifeoeaety tm kjentjen stjoai pre`is en jn ix`iptemnja grjkiwmrb mg j decday
j``mkkmfjtevi kmnitjry pmae`y mvir tdi pjst 9 yijrs. Vdi jnjayses ojsif mn
Pwess aicesajtemn suppmrts tdi veiw mg jn ixtrikiay decd ficrii mg pmaete`ja jnf
i`mnmke` PNOs enfipinfin`i. Aebiwesi! tdi iggi`ts mg tdi gmriecn `urrin`y
pur`djsi prmcrjkki mvir tdi yijrs djvi oiin prmvif tm `mki jamnc wetd nm
`mkprmkesi mn pre`i stjoeaety jnf tdirigmri succist decd ficrii mg kmnitjry
pmae`y `rifeoeaety. Ajstay! tdi tdises ixjkenis tdi i`mnmke` iggi`ts mg tdi stjoai
Pwess grjn` ix`djnci rjti jcjenst tdi iurm. Vdi risuats feggir! fipinfenc mn tdi
i`mnmke` si`tmr jnf ets pre`i sinsetevety tmwjrfs tdi ix`djnci rjti mg tdi Pwess
grjn`. Oisefis! mur jnjayses rivijas ietdir pmsetevi mr nm iggi`ts! js tdi `mrriajtemn
oitwiin tdi Pwess grjn` ix`djnci rjti jnf tdi gunfjkintja i`mnmke` gj`tmrs es
nmt jawjys secnege`jnt tm prmvi jny benf mg riajtemnsdep.
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
9/106
5
@djptir :
:. Vdi kjen gj`tmrs mg tdi camoja `reses jnf tdierekpj`t mn Pwetzirajnf
Vdes `djptir gm`usis mn Pwess i`mnmke` pirgmrkjn`i en aecdt mg tdi YP genjn`eja
`reses jnf tdi Iurmpijn smviriecn fiot `reses. Vdi ekpj`ts mg omtd `resis mn tdi
Pwess i`mnmky djvi oiin gjeray fevircenc grmk ixtrikiay siviri tm pmsetevi. Vdi
`djptir stru`turi gmaamws j `drmnmamce`ja mrfir! stjrtenc wetd j sukkjry mg tdi
s`mpi js wiaa js tdi gunfjkintja njturi mg YP jnf Iurmpijn `resis! jnf frjwenc
tdi riajtemnsdeps mg tdisi `resis wetd tdi Pwess i`mnmky. Si weaa tdin gm`us mn
Pwess i`mnmke` pirgmrkjn`i! oy jnjayzenc tdi stjteste`ja fjtj jomut j vjreity mg
Pwess i`mnmke` enfe`jtmrs. Vdes `djptir gm`usis pjrte`uajray mn Pwess kmnitjry
pmae`y! wde`d furenc tdi riaivjnt tekigrjki djs pajyif j trikinfmusay ekpmrtjnt
rmai gmr tdi Pwess i`mnmky. Vdi ajst si`temn mg tdes `djptir ixpajens tdi rijsmns
gmr tdi destmre`jaay strmnc Pwess grjn` jnf ets pmsetevi jnf nicjtevi iggi`ts mn tdi
Pwess i`mnmky. Oy fmenc tdes! et entrmfu`is tdi jnjayses `jrreif mut en tdi si`mnf
`djptir jomut tdi essuis stikkenc grmk tdi ri`int ixpjnsemnjry kmnitjry pmae`y
en Pwetzirajnf.
:.:. Vdi YP genjn`eja `reses@mnsefirif js tdi wmrst genjn`eja `reses en tdi Ynetif Ptjtis sen`i tdi Crijt
Fiprissemn en tdi :508s! tdi YP genjn`eja `reses tdjt iruptif en ?883 cjvi resi tm
kjny `jtjstrmpdis! su`d js fmwnturns en tdi wmraf stm`b kjrbits! ojnbrupt`eis mg
ajrci genjn`eja enstetutemns! ojeamuts mg tmm+oec+tm+gjea ojnbs! jnf stre`t justirety
kijsuris. Et stjrtif en ?883 en jn unricuajtif jnf duci firevjtevi kjrbit! ojsif
upmn j amw entirist rjti invermnkint wetd jn ixpjnfenc ouooai en tdi dmusenc
kjrbit jnf gamuresdenc genjn`eja ennmvjtemn! ojsif mn tdi prj`te`i mg si`uretezjtemn
jnf mrecenjti+tm+siaa kmfias tdjt aif tm wijb ainfenc stjnfjrfs jnf j `mnni`temn
oitwiin omrrmwirs jnf ainfirs $Xrjcir! ?8:?%.
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
10/106
:8
En tdes ricjrf! Oirnjnbi it ja. $?8::% jrcui tdjt essuis su`d js festreoutemn mg
kmrtcjci amjns! ammsi ainfenc stjnfjrfs! pmmr resb kjnjcikint! `mngae`t mg
entirists en cmvirnkint spmnsmrif intirpresis! jnf gjuatif ricuajtemns wiri tdi
prekjry smur`i gmr tdi YP dmusenc ommk jnf tdi gmaamwenc ourst. En jffetemn! tdi
jutdmrs pment mut jnmtdir gj`tmr `jaaif tdi camoja sjvenc caut. Et es tdi en`rijsif
`jpetja engamws tm tdi Ynetif Ptjtis grmk `muntreis ixpmrtirs mg `mkkmfeteis wetd
trjfi surpausis js wiaa js grmk Jsejn ikircenc kjrbits. Vdi `jpetja engamws grmk
ikircenc Jsej jnf Keffai Ijstirn ixpmrtirs! jamnc wetd pmrtgmaem envistmrs grmk
Iurmpi! ixir`esif jn upwjrf prissuri mn tdi pre`i mg YP trijsureis nmtis jnf
pusdif fmwn amnc+tirk entirist jnf kmrtcjci rjtis. Vdi risuatenc amw entirist
rjtis `jki wetd `mnsefirjti ainfenc en tdi dmusenc kjrbit! wde`d djs tdus oiin
pusdenc up prmpirty pre`is $Oirnjnbi! ?889%. YP dmusenc pre`is pijbif en ijray
?887 jnf sen`i tdiri wjs nm gijr mg jn en`rijsi en tdi gifirja gunfs entirist rjtis!
tdisi pre`is bipt mn resenc. En ?887+3! dmwivir! mwenc tm jn en`rijsif gmri`amsuri
rjti js ricjrfs YP dmkimwnirs! dmusenc pre`is stjrtif tm fi`aeni. Mn tdi wdmai!
tdi `reses wjs `mkenc. En Jucust ?884 tdi resb mg ourstenc dmusenc ouooai
kjtirejaezif jnf cjvi resi tm sivirja `resis mn tdi rija istjti! `rifet! jnf gmriecn
ojnb kjrbits. Vdi ungmafenc mg tdes genjn`eja `reses `jn oi jttreoutif tm tdi
ojnbrupt`y mg Aidkjn Ormtdirs! privemusay mni mg tdi gmur ajrcist envistkint
ojnbs en tdi Ynetif Ptjtis! wde`d djf inmrkmus ixpmsuri tm suo+preki kmrtcjci
amjns. Mn Piptikoir :9! ?884 Aidkjn Ormtdirs geaif gmr @djptir ::
$Ojnbrupt`y prmti`temn% jnf tdjt es dmw tdi `rifet `run`d stjrtif. Oueb $?8::%
fis`reois tdjt fjy js ungmrcittjoai! wetd kjrbits cittenc wmrreif! wetd nm fipmset
ouseniss cmenc mn! jnf wetd nm ojnb pe`benc up j pinny pei`i.
@rmwi it ja. $?8::% ixjkeni tdi kj`rmi`mnmke` `msts mg j ourstenc prmpirtyouooai jnf genf destmre`ja ivefin`i tdjt tdisi `msts jri ix`iptemnjaay siviri.
Gurtdir! wdin tdi ouooai es genjn`if tdrmucd `rifet jnf wdin aivirjcif genjn`eja
enstetutemns jri feri`tay envmavif! js tdes wjs pajen en ?883! tdi `mnsiquin`is jri
ivin kmri fjkjcenc.
En ?883! tdi YP Gifirja _isirvi tmmb j`temns tm ketecjti tdi fiviampenc essuis
en tdi genjn`eja si`tmr! jgtir tdi suopreki kmrtcjci `reses sdmmb tdi kjrbits. Vdi
YP Gifirja _isirvi Omjrf riaijsif j stjtikint mn Jucust :8 `ajekenc tdjt et wjs
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
11/106
::
pripjrif tm j`t en rispmnsi tm tdi fmwnturn jnf djf en`rijsif aequefety. En jn
uns`difuaif kiitenc mn :3td mg Jucust tdi Gif fi`rijsif tdi sprijf oitwiin tdi
Fes`munt _jti jnf tdi Gifirja Gunfs _jti grmk :88 tm 98 ojses pments. Vdes kmvi
secnjaif tdjt tdrust jnf `mngefin`i oitwiin genjn`eja enstetutemns wjs wepif mgg!
ojnbs `jnnmt omrrmw grmk ij`d mtdir! jnf djvi tm cm tm tdi Gif js tdi ainfir mg
ajst rismrt. Vdi Gifirja Mpin Kjrbit @mkkettii `ut ets tjrcit gmr tdi gifirja
gunfs rjti tdrii tekis tm diap ketecjti tdi jfvirsi iggi`ts grmk fesruptemns en
genjn`eja kjrbits. Nukirmus gurtdir rifu`temns gmaamwif en ?884! en rispmnsi tm
tdi Ljnujry stm`b fmwnturn! tecdtinenc `rifet `mnfetemns! tdi fiipinenc mg tdi
dmusenc `mntrj`temn js wiaa js smki smgtinenc en ajomur kjrbits. En jffetemn tm ets
aequefety prmvefenc gj`eaeteis! tdi GMK@ prmvefif ouymuts mg LXKmrcjn @djsi '
@m. jnf tdi Oijr Ptijrns @mkpjneis En`.! jnf mn :7td mg Fi`ikoir stjrtif
Zujntetjtevi Ijsenc Mni! wde`d en issin`i envmavis jn ixpjnsemn mg tdi Gif
ojajn`i sdiit mg up tm 788 oeaaemn fmaajrs en jcin`y kmrtcjci+oj`bif si`ureteis
$KOP% jnf jcin`y fiot. En ?885! tdi Gif ixpjnfif tdjt prmcrjkki oy jn
jffetemnja 398 oeaaemn fmaajrs en pur`djsis mg jcin`y KOP jnf jcin`y fiot jnf
088 oeaaemn fmaajrs en pur`djsis mg Vrijsury si`ureteis.
Vdi `mnsiquin`is mg tdi `reses wmuaf djvi oiin ku`d kmri siviri eg tdi
Gifirja _isirvi wmuaf djvi nmt entirvinif. Js Oueb $?8::% puts et en jn
entirveiw jomut tdi YP genjn`eja `reses! wetdmut tdi wmraf `intrja ojnbs! tdrust
ki! wi weaa oi jaa pmurenc jrmunf tdi geiafs! puaaenc mut tdi maf wdijt tm ijt!
oi`jusi tdjt wjs tdi inf mg tdi wmraf. @intrja ojnbs rijaay nivir djf tdi `rifet
tdiy fisirvi.
Vdi riajtemns oitwiin tdi Ynetif Ptjtis jnf Pwetzirajnf jri `amsi jnf strmnc.
J``mrfenc tm tdi Pwess ojajn`i mg pjykints! tdi Ynetif Ptjtis es tdi ajrcistgmriecn envistmr en Pwetzirajnf! jnf tdi ajrcist sencai fistenjtemn mg Pwess gmriecn
envistkint. Vdi `mnsiquin`is mg tdi genjn`eja `reses jri eaaustrjtif en tdi Pwess
ojajn`i mg pjykints! wde`d es ixjkenif ajtir en tdes `djptir. En jffetemn!
j``mrfenc tm YOP $?8:?% tdi Ynetif Ptjtis es tdi si`mnf+ajrcist ekpmrtir mg Pwess
cmmfs wetd j :8.: pir `int sdjri. Vdi `mnsiquin`is mg tdi `reses mn tdi Pwess
trjfi ojajn`i jri ixjkenif ajtir jnf mni `jn `mn`aufi tdjt tdi YP genjn`eja `reses
fef nmt djvi ku`d mg jn ekpj`t mn Pwess trjfi! mwenc tm tdi eniajste` fikjnf gmr
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
12/106
:?
Pwess prmfu`ts. En gj`t! Pwess ixpmrtirs wiri ivin joai tm rjesi pre`is gmr tdier
prmfu`ts $Pwess Gifirja @ustmks Jfkenestrjtemn! ?8:?%.
Dmwivir! tdi YP genjn`eja `reses cjvi resi nmt mnay tm tdi wmraf i`mnmke`
ri`issemn en ?884! out jasm tm Iurmpis smviriecn fiot `reses tdjt iruptif en ?8:8.
:.?. Iurmpis smviriecn fiot `resesJt tdi inf mg ?889! en etsGenjn`eja Ptjoeaety _iveiw! tdi Iurmpijn @intrja Ojnb
$?889% rjesif ets gerst `mn`irns jomut crmwenc genjn`eja ekojajn`is jt tdi camoja
jnf iurm+jrij aivia! wetd resenc ensmavin`y resb en speti mg ekprmvenc sdm`b+
josmroenc joeaeteis mg ojnbs. Pen`i tdi mnsit mg tdi YP genjn`eja `reses en ?883! tdi
sprijf mg tdi cmvirnkint omnfs mg jaa Iurmpijn `muntreis riajtevi tm tdi Cirkjn
Ounf djs oiin wefinenc. J``mrfenc tm Fi Pjntes $?8:?%! tdiri jri tdrii gj`tmrs!
njkiay! jccricjti ricemnja resb! `muntry spi`ege` resb! jnf `mntjcemn iggi`t grmk
Crii`i! wde`d `mntreoutif tm tdi genjn`enc essuis en tdi iurm jrij jnf tdi
wefinenc sprijf oitwiin Cirkjn ounfs jnf tdi entirist rjti mn smviriecn omnfs
mg cmvirnkint gj`enc fige`ets en tdier puoae` oufcits. Vdi Iurmpijn smviriecn
fiot `reses mgge`ejaay oicun en Jprea ?8:8! js Crii`i mgge`ejaay riquistif j
genjn`eja suppmrt tm geaa en tdi cjps en ets ges`ja oufcit. Grmk ?884 tm ?8::! trepai
JJJ cmvirnkints ixpirein`if j fi`aeni en tdier `msts mg omrrmwenc $Gecuri :%.
Gecuri : jasm sdmws tdi ivmautemn mg amnc+tirk entirist rjtis oy eaaustrjtenc tdi
fiviampkint en :8+yijr cmvirnkint omnfs yeiafs en Pwetzirajnf! tdi Ynetif
Ptjtis jnf JJJ+rjtif Iurmpijn `muntreis. Ekpmrtjntay! mwenc tm amwir engajtemn
rjtis! tdi yeiafs en Pwetzirajnf djvi oiin `aijray jpjrt! wdeai engajtemn rjtis en tdi
Ynetif Ptjtis jnf Iurmpi djvi oiin pmsetevi jnf cinirjaay `amsi tm tdi stjtif
moli`tevi mg kmnitjry jutdmreteis. Mvirjaa! et oijrs ikpdjsezenc tdi `mrriajtif
kmvikints en tdisi yeiafs ivin en j `jsi mg feggirint i`mnmke` `er`ukstjn`is jnf
kmnitjry pmae`y moli`tevis. Vdisi kmvikints lustegy tdjt kmnitjry pmae`ykjbirs
en jfvjn`if i`mnmkeis djvi rispmnfif en j sekeajr kjnnir tm tdi kjlmr i`mnmke`
fiviampkints en tdier `muntreis.
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
13/106
:0
Gecuri :. Omnf yeiafs mg vjremus muntreis! ?883+:0
Pmur`i< Jutdmrs iajomrjtemn wetd fjtj grmk YP Gifirja _isirvi! Pwess Njtemnja
Ojnb! Iurmstjt.
Oy `mntrjst! kjny iurm+jrij `muntreis wetd ix`issevi ges`ja fige`ets! `mn`ievifjs unsustjenjoai en tdi Kjjstre`dt sinsi! ixpirein`if fegge`uateis tm genjn`i tdier
puoae` si`tmrs fiot! sen`i `mn`irnif envistmrs jsbif gmr jn ixtrj prikeuk gmr tdi
ixtrj resb tdiy djf tm tjbi. Vdi pren`epais gmr cmvirnkint genjn`i wiri ajef fmwn
en :55? en tdi Kjjstre`dt Vrijty. Vdiy en`aufi tdi ruai tdjt smviriecn fiot aivias
sdmuaf nmt ix`iif 78 pir `int mg tdi `muntrys Crmss Fmkiste` Xrmfu`t $CFX%
jnf jnnuja cmvirnkint fige`et oi aiss tdjn 0 pir `int mg tdi pri`ifenc yijr CFX.
Js j `mnsiquin`i mg kjny vemajtemns mg tdisi ruais! entirist rjtis gmr pirepdirja
`muntreis sbyrm`bitif jnf cmvirnkints djf tm ekpmsi justirety kijsuris tdjt aif
tdier i`mnmkeis entm ri`issemn. Js j risuat! tdi essuis mg sirvenc cmvirnkint fiot
oi`jki kmri siviri! mwenc tm tdi gj`t tdjt unikpamykint rjtis surcif gmaamwif
oy j fi`rijsi en `mnsukptemn jnf en`mki dmjrfenc. Vdi ri`issemn kjfi tdi
Iurmpijn @intrja Ojnb tm ajun`d twm prmcrjkkis! mni en Fi`ikoir ?8:: `jaaif
Amncir+tirk rigenjn`enc mpirjtemns gmr prmvefenc `dijp aequefety tm ojnbs! tdi
mtdir en Jucust ?8:? `jaaif Mutrecdt kmnitjry trjnsj`temns en mrfir tm prmvefi
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
14/106
:6
genjn`eja suppmrt tm smviriecn fiotmrs. Vdi niif mg aequefety `jki grmk tdi gj`t
tdjt ojnbs jssits djvi amst vjaui. En jffetemn! njtemnja cmvirnkint tjx rivinuis
pauncif! mwenc tm rifu`if i`mnmke` j`teveteis. Vdi kmvi jasm `jki jamnc wetd j
surci en smviriecn fiot `msts. Vdi crmwenc ekojajn`is en puoae` oufcits kjfi
cmvirnkints ensmavint tm `mvir tdier `urrint sdmrt+tirk aejoeaeteis jnf infif tdier
j``iss tm genjn`eja kjrbits jt jggmrfjoai `msts.
Mn ?4 Nmvikoir ?8:8! Eriajnf! tdi Iurmpijn @mkkessemn! jnf tdi
Entirnjtemnja Kmnitjry Gunf jcriif mn jrrjncenc j 49 oeaaemn iurms ris`ui fija.
Mn 3td mg Jprea ?8::! Xmrtucja fikjnfif j 34 oeaaemn iurms ojeamut pj`bjci tm
stjoeaezi ets puoae` genjn`is jnf sustjen j``iss tm tdi genjn`eja kjrbit. Furenc
?8:?! jgtir Ppjens :8+yijr cmvirnkint omnfs yeiaf rij`dif 3 pir `int! tdi
`muntry wjs jaamwif tm pjrte`epjti entm j genjn`eja suppmrt prmcrjkki $Iurmpijn
@intrja Ojnb! ?8:0%.
Djefjr $?8:?% ixjkenis tdi Iurmpijn smviriecn fiot `reses. J``mrfenc tm dek!
tdi `reses mrecenjtis kjenay grmk tdrii kjlmr rijsmns. Mni mg tdik es tdi ges`ja
entirvintemn kijsuris! wde`d ekprmvi tdi guturi mutammb mg tdi `muntreis out mn
tdi mtdir djnf ourfin tdier smviriecn fiot sirve`i! en`aufenc ojeamuts tdjt djvi tm
oi pjef oj`b en tdi guturi jnf tdus pmsi j ourfin mn guturi cmvirnkint oufcits.
Vdi si`mnf rijsmn aeis en tdi fi`rijsi mg cmvirnkint rivinuis mwenc tm j sdjrp
fivjaujtemn mg genjn`eja jssits jnf rija istjti. Vdi tderf `djnnia jasm `mkis grmk
tdi ikircenc i`mnmke` ri`issemn jnf riajtis tm j rifu`temn mg jccricjti fikjnf
jnf tdi `mnsiquint frmp en ges`ja rivinuis. En jffetemn! niw cmvirnkintja
ixpinfeturis su`d js unikpamykint oinigets wiri en`urrif mwenc tm tdi siviri
i`mnmke` setujtemn.
En ?8::! tdi setujtemn gmr tdi iurm jrij djf `djncif `mkpaitiay. Vdi kjen rijsmnwjs tdi ajun`d en ?8:8 mg tdi si`mnf rmunf mg Zujntetjtevi Ijsenc en tdi Ynetif
Ptjtis! en mrfir tm kmnitezi tdi YP cmvirnkint fiot jnf tm stekuajti tdi YP
i`mnmky oy en`rijsenc tdi jvjeajoai gunfs en tdi genjn`eja systik $Kesdben!
?887%. Js j risuat! tdi pmsetemns en tdi iurm+jrij ojajn`i mg pjykint ekprmvif!
gmaamwif oy jn engamw mg pmrtgmaem envistkints tdjt gaiw oj`b entm tdjt jrij. Js
Gecuri ? sdmws! tdi iurm wjs jppri`ejtenc jcjenst tdi Pwess grjn` furenc tdi gerst
kmntds mg ?8::. Vdi upwjrf kmvi mg tdi iurm wjs `muntirj`tif oy tdi Pwess
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
15/106
:9
Njtemnja Ojnb! wde`d oicjn siaaenc gmriecn `urrin`y risirvis et djf oueat oigmri.
Jt tdi inf mg ?8:: tdi iurm jamnc wetd kjrbit sintekint wint fmwn! gmaamwif oy
`jpetja mutgamws grmk Ppjen! Crii`i! Etjay! Xmrtucja! jnf Eriajnf mg 088 oeaaemn
iurms! j``mrfenc tm ENC fjtj. En Ljnujry ?8:: tdi `urrint j``munt mg tdi iurm jrij
ri`mrfif j surpaus mg 6.9 oeaaemn iurms. Dmwivir! tdi sencai Iurmpijn `urrin`y
fipri`ejtif crijtay mwenc tm tdi mutgamw en tdi genjn`eja j``munt mg 90 oeaaemn
iurms $Iurmpijn @intrja Ojnb! ?8:?%.
Gecuri ? usis kmntday jvirjcis fjtj jnf sdmws tdi stiip Jucust ?8:: kmvi
mg tdi Pwess grjn` jcjenst tdi iurm. Vdi Pwess grjn` jppri`ejtif crijtay jcjenst
tdi iurm en tdi kmntds pri`ifenc Jucust! dmwivir mn :: Jucust ?8:: tdi Pwess
grjn` det tdi aivia mg :.86:7: gmr mni iurm! j``mrfenc tm fjtj mg tdi jr`devi mg tdi
Pwess Gifirja @ustmks Jfkenestrjtemn. Vdi setujtemn wjs pmsenc j tdrijf gmr
i`mnmke` pirgmrkjn`i jnf figajtemnjry resb en Pwetzirajnf! sm tdi Pwess Njtemnja
Ojnb tmmb fi`esevi j`temns jnf en Piptikoir ?8:: fi`ajrif tdjt et weaa ingmr`i j
kenekuk ix`djnci rjti mg :.?8 Pwess grjn`s gmr mni iurm. Vdi `mkketkint wjs
oj`bif up oy tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb rijfeniss tm pur`djsi gmriecn `urrin`eis en
unaeketif qujnteteis $Deafiorjnf! ?8::%.
Gecuri ?. Pecdt fipmsets en Pwetzirajnf jnf IY_-@DG ix`djnci rjti!
?883+:?
Pmur`i< jutdmrs iajomrjtemn ojsif mn fjtj oy tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb.
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
16/106
:7
:.0. Pwess i`mnmke` pirgmrkjn`i furenc tdi `resis
Vdi purpmsi mg tdes si`temn es tm gjkeaejrezi tdi rijfir wetd tdi pirgmrkjn`i mg tdi
Pwess i`mnmky en tdi tekigrjki mg tdi YP genjn`eja `reses jnf tdi Iurmpijn
smviriecn fiot `reses. Gerst mg jaa! tdi si`temn ixpajens tdi riajtemnsdep oitwiin
Pwess gmriecn trjfi jnf tdi gau`tujtenc Pwess grjn`. Nixt! et jnjayzis tdi Pwess
ojajn`i mg pjykints jnf tdi `mnsiquin`is mg tdi camoja genjn`eja `reses mn et.
Vdin! tdi si`temn gm`usis mn Pwess CFX oy ixpajenenc ets stru`turi jnf
`mntrjstenc fiviampkints furenc tdi camoja `reses. Vdi kj`rmi`mnmke` jnjayses mg
tdi Pwess i`mnmky tdin gm`usis mn tdi `djncis en Pwess unikpamykint rjtis jnf
en tdi Pwess prmpirty kjrbit. Genjaay! tdi si`temn cevis `rifet tm Pwess ges`ja jnf
kmnitjry pmae`eis gmr tdier prmj`tevi j`temns wetden tdi s`mpi mg tdier kjnfjtis!
wetd tdi gmrkir oienc j crijt `mntreoutmr gmr tdi sjgi djvin ekjci mg Pwetzirajnf
jnf tdi ajttir oienc j prmti`tmr gmr jfvirsi fiviampkints en tdi Pwess i`mnmky.
:.0.:. Pwess gmriecn trjfi en tekis mg vmajteai ix`djnci rjtis
Ptjrbis Sj`dstuk ket dmdin Xriesin $Ptrmnc crmwtd wetd decd pre`is% wjs tdi
mgge`eja tetai gmr tdi tderf qujrtir mg ?8:? mg tdi Pwess gmriecn trjfi ripmrt $Pwess
Gifirja @ustmks Jfkenestrjtemn! ?8:?%. Vdi Pwess Gifirja @ustmks
Jfkenestrjtemn stjtif tdjt furenc tdi tderf qujrtir mg ?8:?! omtd ixpmrts jnf
ekpmrts en`rijsif! mwenc tm decdir pre`is. Ispi`ejaay strmnc wjs tdi resi en ixpmrt
pre`is en omtd YP fmaajr jnf iurm tirks! wetd tdi Pwess `dike`ja jnf pdjrk
enfustry jnf tdi wjt`d enfustry oienc tdi twm kjlmr enfustreis joai tm rjesi pre`is
mg tdier prmfu`ts. Vdi rijsmns wdy tdisi sjais rikjen riseaeint tm tdi strmnc Pwess
grjn` jri tm oi gmunf en tdier pre`i ensinseteviniss. Js Ajkaj it ja. $?8::% jrcui!
fikjnf gmr pdjrkj`iute`jas! `dike`jas! `am`bs! jnf gmmf es ensinsetevi tm tdi
vmajteaety mg tdi Pwess grjn`. Vdi wmraf+bnmwn ekjci mg Pwetzirajnf! wdmsi
prmfu`ts djvi j`querif tdi tetai Pwessniss! jamnc wetd tdi decday ennmvjtevi!
risijr`d jnf bnmwaifci ojsif i`mnmky! jri gj`tmrs gmr tdi su``iss mg Pwess
ixpmrts en speti mg jn jppri`ejtenc Pwess grjn`. Mn tdi `mntrjry! tdi kj`deniry
jnf iai`trmne`s enfustry jnf tdi kitjaaurce`ja enfustry ixpirein`if j fi`aeni en
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
17/106
:3
tdier ixpmrts mg 7.3 jnf 3.7 pir `int en tdi tderf qujrtir mg ?8:? jnf mg 4.0 jnf
:8.: pir `int gmr tdi piremf Ljnujry+Piptikoir ?8:?. Vdisi twm enfustreis! wde`d
jri kikoirs mg tdi Pwesskik mrcjnezjtemn! jfvm`jtif tdi kenekuk ix`djnci
rjti jnf ivin jsbif gmr j decdir gammr gmr tdi IY_-@DG rjti. Vdi rijsmn gmr tdier
ixpmrt frmp es tdjt tdi fikjnf gmr kj`deniry! iai`trmne`s jnf kitjaaurce`ja
prmfu`t es decday iajste`. Js j risuat! jny upoijt `djncis en pre`is! wde`d `mki
grmk jppri`ejtemn mg tdi Pwess grjn`! risuats en fmwnoijt `djncis en fikjnf gmr
tdisi prmfu`ts. Kmst mg tdier sjais jri ri`mrfif en `muntreis su`d js Grjn`i jnf
Cirkjny! smkitdenc tdjt kjbi sjais gecuris vuanirjoai tm tdi gau`tujtemns mg tdi
Pwess grjn`.
:.0.?. Vdi Pwess ojajn`i mg pjykintsVdi mpinniss mg tdi Pwess i`mnmky kjfi Pwetzirajnf vuanirjoai tm tdi genjn`eja
sdm`b cinirjtif oy tdi ?884 YP `reses. Js tdi wmraf gj`if j paunci en en`mki jnf
fesenvistkint grmk genjn`eja j`teveteis! sm fef Pwetzirajnf js wiaa. Vdiri jri twm
kjen rijsmns gmr tdes. Vdi gerst rijsmn es tdi sezi mg tdi Pwess ojnbenc si`tmr!
wde`d! j``mrfenc tm tdi MI@F Ptru`turja Jnjayses Fjtjojsi! wjs :0.9 pir`int mg
tdi Pwess CFX jt ets pe`b en ?883. Vdes nukoir es wjy crijtir tdjn en jny mtdir
fiviampif `muntry. Vdi si`mnf rijsmn es tdi entirnjtemnja mreintjtemn mg tdi Pwess
genjn`eja enfustry. En ?8::! j``mrfenc tm tdi Pwess Ojnbirs Jssm`ejtemn! tdi
Pwess genjn`eja si`tmr kjfi jrmunf djag mg ets prmgets grmk gmriecn j`teveteis!
wde`d `mntreoutif wetd :9.: oeaaemn Pwess grjn`s tm tdi CFX mg tdi `muntry.
En cinirja! Pwetzirajnf djs oiin kmri riseaeint jnf aiss jggi`tif oy tdi ri`int
`reses. Nivirtdiaiss! jt tdi mnsit mg tdi YP rija istjti `reses en tdi si`mnf djag mg?883! tdi `urrint j``munt surpaus jnf tdi envistkint en`mki grmk gmriecn Pwess
suosefejreis ri`mrfif j fi`rijsi mg 0 oeaaemn Pwess grjn`s. Enfiif! tdi nicjtevi
`mnsiquin`is wiri j oet kmri siviri gmr tdi `jpetja j``munt! wde`d pauncif grmk
44 oeaaemn Pwess grjn`s en ?887 tm 9:.5 oeaaemn Pwess grjn`s en ?883. Vdi mutgamw
`jki grmk rifu`if feri`t jnf pmrtgmaem envistkint jormjf. Vdi gjaa `jn oi intetaif
tm oec amssis en`urrif oy Pwess ojnbs. Vdi twm oec ojnbs $YOP jnf @rifet Puessi%
djf crijt ixpmsuri tm tdi YP preki kmrtcjcis jnf firevjtevi kjrbits. Jgtir tdi
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
18/106
:4
ourst mg tdi `reses! tdiy djf tm ixpirein`i ixpinfeturis crijtir tdjn tdier rivinuis.
Kmrimvir! tdi Pwess `jpetja j``munt wjs engauin`if oy j fi`rijsi en ixpinfeturi
mn j`quesetemns oy tdi kjnugj`turenc enfustry $Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb! ?884%.
Vdi fi`aenenc trinf mg tdi Pwess `urrint j``munt surpaus `mntenuif en ?884.
Vdi ojnbs amssis en pjrte`uajr wiri tm oajki gmr tdi paunci en en`mki ri`iepts
grmk jormjf. Kmrimvir! tdi `urrint j``munt surpaus wint fmwn grmk 9? tm :0
oeaaemn Pwess grjn`s! wde`d wjs tdi amwist aivia sen`i tdi oicennenc mg tdi :548s.
En jffetemn jnf en aeni wetd tdi `urrint j``munt! tdi Pwess genjn`eja j``munt jasm
ixpirein`if sjki nicjtevi fiviampkints. Mwenc tm tdi `reses en ?884! Pwess
ojnbs djf rifu`if tdier `ajeks jnf aejoeaeteis tmwjrfs ojnbs jormjf jnf tdi
risuatenc engamw wjs mggsit oy jn mutgamw mg 09 oeaaemn Pwess grjn`s! en`aufenc tdi
swjps tdjt tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb djf tm `mntrj`t tm prmvefi wetd aequefety mtdir
`intrja ojnbs. En tmtja! nit feri`t envistkints jormjf frmppif 09 pir `int grmk 30
tm 64 oeaaemn Pwess grjn`s! wde`d wjs kjenay fui tm tdi ajrci fesenvistkints en
Pwetzirajnf oy envistmrs grmk tdi Iurmpijn Ynemn jnf ajrci wetdfrjwjas oy
Pwess envistmrs en tdi Ynetif Ptjtis. Mn tdi mtdir djnf! duci mutgamws mg gunfs
wiri ri`mrfif js pmrtgmaem envistkint en fiot si`ureteis. Vdes `jn oi siin js j secn
mg j wmrsinenc wmraf i`mnmke` setujtemn! jt tekis wdin Pwess envistmrs stjrtif tm
ammb gmr sjgi envistkints. Vdi gmriecn envistmrs jasm en`rijsif tdier dmafencs mg
pmrtgmaem envistkints en Pwetzirajnf! out tdi kjen engamw wjs en iquety si`ureteis.
Enfiif! envistmrs `mnsefir tdi Pwess iquety kjrbit js j sjgi djvin! wdiri tdi
kjlmrety mg gunfs gay entm en j teki mg wmraf turnmvir. En tmtja tdi mutgamw en tdi
pmrtgmaem envistkint wjs decdir tdjn tdi engamw! jnf tdi nit pmrtgmaem mutgamw
pmsetemn en`rijsif tm 03.3 oeaaemn Pwess grjn`s! grmk ?0.0 oeaaemn en ?883 $Pwess
Njtemnja Ojnb! ?885%.Js Gecuri 0 sdmws! tdi Pwess `urrint j``munt ri`mrfif j surpaus mg 70.4
oeaaemn Pwess grjn`s en ?885. Furenc tdjt yijr! ixpmrts mg cmmfs pauncif mn j
kmntday ojses grmk nijray :4 oeaaemn Pwess grjn`s en tdi keffai mg ?884 tm jrmunf
:6.9 oeaaemn Pwess grjn`s mni yijr ajtir. Jamnc wetd ixpmrts! ekpmrts jasm giaa oy
:0 pir `int en ?885. Vdi rijsmn gmr tdi gjaaenc ixpmrts wjs tdi gjaaenc wmraf
fikjnf! mwenc tm tdi wjnenc wmraf i`mnmke` j`tevety. En `mntrjst tm ?884! en
?885 nit envistkint en`mki wjs ixtrikiay decd djvenc j surpaus mg 0? oeaaemn
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
19/106
:5
Pwess grjn`s! jttreoutjoai tm j resi en gmriecn feri`t envistkint en`mki. Vdes resi
`jn oi ixpajenif oy jn en`rijsi en tdi feri`t envistkints en`mki ri`iepts! wde`d
rigai`tif tdi ekprmvif setujtemn en tdi genjn`eja enfustry jnf tdi en`rijsi mg prmget
kjbenc j`teveteis mg gmriecn Pwess ojnbs. Et `jn jasm oi ixpajenif oy j secnege`jnt
fi`rijsi en gmriecn envistkints ixpinsis. En ?885! tdi `urrint j``munt surpaus
sbyrm`bitif tm 76 oeaaemn Pwess grjn`s. Gmr Pwetzirajnf! tdi gj`t tdjt tdi surpaus
rij`dif ets pri+`reses aivia mg :? pir `int mg CFX `jn oi siin js secnegyenc tdi
su``issgua ri`mviry grmk tdi `reses en ?883.
Gecuri 0. Pwess `urrint j``munts! nit! ?88?+::
Pmur`i< Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb! Pwess Ojajn`i mg Xjykints ?8::.
En tdi Pwess genjn`eja j``munt! tdiri wjs j `mnsefirjti `utoj`b mg tdi gmriecn
feri`t envistkint jormjf! j trinf mg fesenvistkint en niw ouseniss j`teveteis. Vdi
trinf grmk ?884 `mntenuif en ?885 jnf tdi feri`t envistkint jormjf wint en djag.
Js ricjrfs gmriecn feri`t envistkints en Pwetzirajnf! tdiri wjs j crjfuja en`rijsi
mg :88 pir`int tdrmucdmut tdi yijr! out jaa en jaa tdi nit mutgamw mg GFE wint grmk
60.3 tm ?.7 oeaaemn Pwess grjn`s. Vdi surpaus en tdi `urrint j``munt wjs nmt mggsit
oy j fige`et $sugge`eint mutgamws% en tdi genjn`eja j``munt! wde`d jt tdi inf mg tdi
yijr wjs ?7.7 oeaaemn Pwess grjn`s! gjr aiss tdjn tdi `urrint j``munt surpaus. En
?885! tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb rifu`if ets swjp jnf ripm trjnsj`temns! js jnmtdir
secn mg j aissinenc tinsemn en tdi genjn`eja kjrbits pmrtgmaem envistkints $Pwess
Njtemnja Ojnb! ?8:8%.
En jffetemn! furenc tdi Iurmpijn smviriecn fiot `reses mg ?8:8! Pwetzirajnf djs
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
20/106
?8
j``mkkmfjtif engamws oeccir tdjn tdi mutgamws en ets `jpetja j``munt tdjt lustegy
tdes `muntrys ekjci mg j sjgi djvin $Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb! ?8::%. En jffetemn! tdi
`reses djs sdmwn j tefi entirfipinfint riajtemnsdep oitwiin tdi Pwess i`mnmky
jnf tdi pirgmrkjn`i mg tdi camoja i`mnmky. Djvenc jnjayzif tdi fiviampkints en
tdi Pwess ojajn`i mg pjykint! tdi crmwtd en Pwess CFX jnf ets `mkpmnints en tdi
ri`int `reses piremf! njkiay grmk ?883 tm ?8::! wi `jn nmte`i tdjt Pwetzirajnf es
kmri fipinfint mn gmriecn envistkint jnf aiss fipinfint mn gmriecn trjfi! wetd
tdi YP genjn`eja `reses djvenc siviri nicjtevi ekpj`ts jnf tdi Iurmpijn smviriecn
fiot `reses djvenc j pmsetevi ekpj`t mn tdi Pwess i`mnmky.
:.0.0. Pwess CFXPen`i tdi gerst qujrtir mg ?887 gmr :: qujrtirs en j rmw! Pwess CFX wjs en`rijsenc
wetd j pj`i mg 7 pir `int mn yijr+tm+yijr ojses js sdmwn en Gecuri 6. En tdi gmurtd
qujrtir mg ?884! tdi YP `reses djf et kjlmr ekpj`t wdin tdi Pwess CFX crmwtd
frmppif secnege`jntay tm :.4 pir `int.J``mrfencay! tdi `mrri`temn wjs kjenay fui
tm nicjtevi fiviampkints en tdi Pwess ixpmrts si`tmr jnf gexif envistkints! js
omtd ixpirein`if j sdjrp jnf suostjnteja gjaa mg rispi`tjoay 0.0 jnf 9.6 pir`int.
Mppmsetiay! prevjti `mnsukptemn jt tdjt teki stmmf stjoai! wetd dmusidmafs
en`rijsenc tdier spinfenc jt jn jvirjci jnnuja rjti mg jrmunf : pir `int.
En tdi jgtirkjtd mg tdi YP genjn`eja `reses! tdi Pwess CFX ixpirein`if jaebi
smki vmajteai fynjke`s! js j``mrfenc tm mur `ja`uajtemn! tdi nmkenja Pwess CFX
giaa oy ?.66 pir `int furenc ?885. Vdi jvirjci crmwtd gmr tdi gmur qujrtir mg ?885
es tdi jretdkite` jvirjci mg tdi gmur qujrtir vjauis! njkiay +:.9! +6.:! +0.9! jnf +
8.6 pir `int. Vdi secnege`jnt frmp en Pwess CFX gmr tdi si`mnf qujrtir mg ?885`jn oi jttreoutjoai tm j fi`rijsi mg fmkiste` fikjnf mg 0.: pir `int jnf tm : pir
`int fi`aeni en tdi ojajn`i mg trjfi. Vdi mni pir`int fi`aeni en tdi ojajn`i mg
trjfi es fui tm gjaaenc ixpmrts jnf ekpmrts mg j``mrfencay :9.6 jnf :7.6 pir`int
$Ptjti Pi`ritjrejt gmr I`mnmke` Jggjers! ?8:?%. Vdi gjaa en fmkiste` fikjnf en
pjrte`uajr `mnsestif en fi`aenenc mvirjaa envistkints tdjt pauncif oy :9.5 pir `int
jnnujaay. En tdes ricjrf! tdi envistkints tdjt tmmb tdi oeccist det wiri gexif
envistkints! wde`d giaa oy :9.5 pir `int furenc tdi si`mnf qujrtir mg ?885 jnf
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
21/106
?:
iquepkint jnf smgtwjri envistkints! wde`d frmppif secnege`jntay oy ?8.4 pir
`int. Dmwivir! envistkint en `mnstru`temn ixpirein`if j aegt mg 6.0 pir `int.
Jatdmucd tdi nicjtevi fiviampkint gmr tdi Pwess CFX wjs prisint
tdrmucdmut ?885! sen`i tdi gerst qujrtir mg ?8:8! tdi crmwtd rjti mg Pwess CFX djs
jawjys oiin pmsetevi. Vdes `jn oi `mnsefirif js j secn mg ri`mviry grmk tdi YP
genjn`eja `reses jnf riseaein`i jcjenst tdi Iurmpijn smviriecn fiot `reses $Ptjti
Pi`ritjrejt gmr I`mnmke` Jggjers! ?8:?%.
Vdi rijsmn gmr tdi pmsetevi Pwess CFX crmwtd en j teki mg Iurmpijn `reses `jn
oi gmunf en tdi `mkpmsetemn mg tdi Pwess CFX. Xrevjti jnf cmvirnkint
`mnsukptemn es tdi oeccist si`tmr j``muntenc gmr 77.4 pir`int mg tdi CFX. Omtd
si`tmrs rikjen unjggi`tif grmk tdi twm `resis. Ekpmrtjntay! envistkints jnf
gmriecn trjfi `mnsest mg ??.: jnf ::.: pir`int sdjris js j``mrfenc tm $Ptjti
Pi`ritjrejt gmr I`mnmke` Jggjers! ?8:?%. Jatdmucd omtd fi`aenif js j risuat mg tdi
YP `reses! mnay nit ixpmrts giaa furenc tdi Iurmpijn `reses.
Gecuri 6. Jnnuja Pwess CFX crmwtd mntreoutemns! ?88?+:?
Pmur`i< YOP $?8:0o! p. 6%.
En `mn`ausemn! tdi Pwess i`mnmky fipinfints mn omtd gmriecn trjfi jnf
envistkints jnf j genjn`eja `reses `jn djvi j secnege`jnt samw fmwn mn tdi
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
22/106
??
i`mnmky. Envistkints jri `ru`eja gmr Pwetzirajnf jnf jny guturi genjn`eja `resis
kjy jggi`t tdi `muntry. Mwnenc tm tdi gj`t tdjt tdi Iurmpijn smviriecn fiot `reses
es steaa aj`benc tdi ni`issjry rigmrk en ?8:0! jny crmwenc genjn`eja ix`issis `jn
ekpmsi systikjte` resb gmr tdi wdmai Pwess i`mnmky. Dmwivir! tdi Iurmpijn
fiot `reses djs ets pmsetevi ekpae`jtemns! en tirk mg orencenc secnege`jnt jkmunts mg
`jpetja engamws en tdi Pwess i`mnmky.
:.0.6. Ynikpamykint rjtisVdi camoja genjn`eja `reses djs oiin wiecdenc dijveay mn tdi wmraf i`mnmky sen`i
?883. En kmst jfvjn`if `muntreis! tdi ri`mviry djs oiin wijb wetd i`mnmkeis
struccaenc tm ricjen tdi lmo amssis. En ?884! js Gecuri 9 sdmws! tdi unikpamykint
rjti en Pwetzirajnf en`rijsif kmfistay oy :.4 pir`intjci pments! en `mkpjresmn tm
tdi Ynetif Ptjtis! wde`d ixpirein`if j 9+pir`intjci surci! jnf tdi iurm jrij!
wde`d gj`if j 0+pir`intjci en`rijsi mg tdi unikpamykint rjti
Gecuri 9. Ynikpamykint rjti en Pwetzirajnf! tdi Ynetif Ptjtis jnf tdi
iurm jrij! ?88?+?8:?
Pmur`i< YOP! Pwess @djrtsit ?8:0.
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
23/106
?0
:.0.9. Xrmpirty kjrbit
Pwetzirajnf es j wefiay bnmwn paj`i gmr entirnjtemnja envistkints jnf j camoja
genjn`eja `intir wetd j ajrci entirnjtemnja mreintjtemn. Vdes entirnjtemnja
mreintjtemn mg tdi genjn`eja enfustry jasm envmavis j decday fevirsegeif Pwess
i`mnmky tdjt es aiss fipinfint mn ets fmkiste` i`mnmky. En tdi pjst tdiri jri
ixjkpais sdmwenc tdjt tdes djs `mntreoutif tm tdi riseaein`i mg tdi `muntry en
`reses setujtemns. Mni su`d ixjkpai es tdi pirgmrkjn`i mg tdi i`mnmky furenc tdi
Pwess rija istjti `reses mg tdi :558s. Oy tdjt teki en tdi i`mnmky tdiri wiri
ekojajn`is tdjt wiri jffrissif oy prmgetjoai entirnjtemnja ouseniss j`teveteis!
wde`d diapif jnf stjoeaezif tdi suggirenc ojnbenc si`tmr $Lmrfjn! ?8:?j%.
Vdi Pwess i`mnmky djs cmni tdrmucd tdi ri`int `resis js nm mtdir `munty. Gmr
ixjkpai! furenc tdi YP `rifet `reses! dmusenc kjrbits jaa mvir tdi wmraf `rjsdif.
Dmwivir! tdi pre`is mg prmpirteis en Pwetzirajnf diaf tdier aivia jnf `mkpjrif tm
tdi Ynetif Ptjtis jnf Iurmpijn Ynemn fef nmt ixpirein`i jny fmwnwjrf prissuri.
Js eaaustrjtif oy Gecuri 7! tdi prmpirty pre`i enfix djs oiin cmenc up sen`i tdi
inf mg tdi Pwess prmpirty `reses mg tdi ijray :558s.
Gecuri 7. Pwess prmpirty pre`i enfe`is! rija! :538+?8:?
Pmur`i< YOP! Pwess @djrtsit ?8:?.
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
24/106
?6
:.6. Gj`tmrs gmr tdi jppri`ejtemn mg tdi Pwess grjn`En ets qujrtiray jssisskint mg Piptikoir 0! ?8:: tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb jrcuif
tdjt tdi strmnc Pwess grjn` pmsis j secnege`jnt tdrijf mn tdi Pwess i`mnmky.
Dmwivir! tdi Pwess i`mnmky es nmt mnay entirfipinfint wetd tdi Iurmpijn mni!
out jasm wetd tdi YP i`mnmky. Vdi quistemn tdjt jresis es wdy tdi Pwess Njtemnja
Ojnb fef nmt ekpaikint j kenekuk ix`djnci rjti jcjenst tdi YP fmaajr js wiaa.
J``mrfenc tm tdi Ptjti Pi`ritjrejt! tdi Ynetif Ptjtis es tdi si`mnf ajrcir ixpmrtir
gmr Pwetzirajnf! wetd en`mki grmk YP feri`t jnf pmrtgmaem envistkints djvenc j
crijt sdjri en tdi `urrint j``munt mg Pwetzirajnf. Vdirigmri jn en`rijsi en tdi
Pwess grjn` wmuaf kijn amwir prmget grmk `mkpjneis djvenc tdier ousenissis en
tdi Ynetif Ptjtis. Vdi Pwess ix`djnci rjtis fynjke`s jcjenst sjki mg tdi kjlmr
`urrin`eis jri sdmwn en Gecuri 3. Ekpmrtjntay! tdi iurm fipri`ejtif 0: pir `int!
`mkpjrif tm tdi 08 pir `int fivjaujtemn mg tdi YP fmaajr oitwiin tdi inf mg
Ljnujry ?884 jnf tdi inf mg Jucust ?8::. Jatdmucd tdi kjcnetufi mg
jppri`ejtemn mg tdi Pwess grjn` wjs jaebi en riajtemn tm omtd `urrin`eis! tdi
feri`temn `djncif jt tdi inf mg ?8:?. J``mrfencay! tdi Pwess grjn` sustjenif ets
kmkintuk jcjenst tdi YP fmaajr! wdirijs tdi iurm fes`mntenuif ets fi`aenenc
trinf jnf `urrintay kmfirjtenc jt :.?0! jomvi tdi gammr mg :.?8. Mni pajuseoai
ixpajnjtemn gmr tdi fes`ripjn`y en `urrin`y fynjke`s es tdi fi`esemn tjbin oy tdi
Iurmpijn @intrja Ojnb mn 7td mg Piptikoir ?8:? tm ixi`uti ets mutrecdt kmnitjry
trjnsj`temns en tdi si`mnfjry omnf kjrbits mg tdi iurm jrij! tdirigmri iaekenjtenc
tdi tjea resb stikkenc grmk j iurm+jrij orijbfmwn.
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
25/106
?9
Gecuri 3. Ivmautemn mg IY_-@DG jnf YPF-@DG ix`djnci rjtis! ?883+:0
Pmur`i< jutdmrs iajomrjtemn ojsif mn Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb fjtj.
Gecuri 3 jasm sdmws tdjt en tdi gerst djag mg ?883! wdin tdi wmraf i`mnmky wjs
crmwenc rjpefay! tdi iurm wjs jppri`ejtenc jcjenst tdi Pwess grjn` kmri tdjn tdi
YP fmaajr jcjenst tdi Pwess grjn`. Et es aebiay tdjt tdi iurm es pir`ievif js tdi resby
`urrin`y! wde`d en cmmf teki jppri`ejtis riajteviay kmri! js mppmsif tm tdi YP
fmaajr jnf tdi Pwess grjn` tdjt jri siin js j sjgi djvin `urrin`y. Jt tdi teki mg
wretenc $Kjy ?8:0%! tdi Ynetif Ptjtis wjs aj`benc j stjoai jnf sustjenjoai ges`ja
pmae`y! js tdiy fiaicjti tdi rijsmnjoeaety gmr amw unikpamykint rjtis jnf
sustjenjoai i`mnmke` crmwtd rjtis tm jnmtdir pmae`y enstrukint su`d js kmnitjry
pmae`y! wde`d fi luri sdmuaf mnay stjnf gmr pre`i stjoeaety $\urorcc! ?8:?%. Js j
risuat! tdi fynjke`s en tdi YPF-@DG jnf IY_-@DG ix`djnci rjtis wiri en
j``mrf grmk ?883 tm ?8::! js omtd! tdi YP fmaajr jnf tdi Iurm amst nijr ?9
pir`int mg tdier riajtevi vjauis tm tdi Pwess grjn`.
En tirks mg resb jvirsemn tdi gj`tmrs tdjt engauin`if tdi ix`djnci rjti mg tdi
Pwess grjn` jri oist rigai`tif en Gecuri 4! wde`d sdmws tdi fynjke`s en tdi
IY_-@DG ix`djnci rjti sen`i ?8:8.
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
26/106
?7
Gecuri 4. Ivmautemn mg tdi Pwess grjn` en tirks mg resb jppiteti! ?8:8+::
Pmur`i< @rifet Puessi I`mnmke` _isijr`d $?8:?%.
En ?8:8! tdi Pwess grjn` ixpirein`if ets gerst secnege`jnt en`rijsi! js envistmrs
oi`jki resb jvirsi mwenc tm tdi Criib `reses tdjt iruptif jt tdi inf mg ?885.
Vdin! tdi gijr mg fmuoai fep ri`issemn grmk Piptikoir ?8:8! `mrriajtis wetd
jnmtdir pusd mg tdi Pwess grjn`! wde`d rij`dif j amw mg :.08 gmr mni Iurm. Vdi
gmaamwenc Eresd `reses grmk tdi inf mg ?8:8 risuatif en gurtdir jppri`ejtenc mg tdi
Pwess grjn` tm ri`mrf decd aivias mg :.?9 gmr mni iurm. En ?8::! js tdi Crii`i
`reses cjenif kmkintuk jnf pjne` tmmb mvir tdi envistmrs! tdi Iurm frmppif tm
:.86 jcjenst tdi Pwess grjn`! js tdi fikjnf gmr sjgi Pwess envistkints en`rijsif.
Vdiri jri sivirja rijsmns tdjt aif tm tdi secnege`jnt jppri`ejtemn mg tdi Pwess
grjn`. Mni mg tdi rijsmns gmr tdi decd fikjnf gmr Pwess grjn`s es tdi `muntrys
ges`ja smunfniss. Ges`ja `mnfetemns en Pwetzirajnf djvi jawjys oiin dijatdeir jnf
ku`d sjgir tdjt en kjny mtdir Iurmpijn `muntreis. Grmk tdi ges`ja pmae`y pment mgveiw! tdi Pwess @mngifirjtemn djs nivir amst ets trepai+J `rifet rjtenc. En jffetemn!
tdi puoae` fiot orjbi tdjt wjs gerst jppaeif tm tdi gifirja oufcit mg ?880 es
riprisintif js j sekpai cmvirnkint enstrukint gmr kjnjcenc gifirja ixpinfeturi.
Vdi purpmsi mg tdi fiot orjbi es tm privint amncstjnfenc jnf j``ukuajtenc oufcit
fige`ets jnf tdirioy biip tdi fiot aivia wetden smki aekets! rijsmnjoay lustegeif oy
tdi `urrint i`mnmke` setujtemn. Vdi ruai djs `mntreoutif tm djvi j stjoai jnf amnc+
tirk mreintif ges`ja pmae`y. Vdes ges`ja ruai jeks tm istjoaesd j ojajn`if oufcit
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
27/106
?3
wetd ges`ja surpausis wdin tdi i`mnmky es ommkenc! sm tdjt tdiy `jn oi usif tm
mggsit jny fige`ets en fmwnturn s`injrems $Gifirja Fipjrtkint mg Genjn`i! ?8:?%.
Mwenc tm tdi `ieaenc ekpmsif tm cmvirnkint ixpinfeturis jnf tdi ges`ja ouggir en
j teki mg `reses! tdi fiot orjbi es siin js jn ekpmrtjnt pririqueseti nmt mnay gmr jn
enfipinfint ges`ja pmae`y out jasm gmr jn enfipinfint kmnitjry pmae`y. Oy djvenc
ojajn`if jnf smunf gifirja oufcits! tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb `jn prisirvi ets
enfipinfin`i jnf risest kmnitezenc jny cmvirnkint fiot.
Vdi ges`ja `mnfetemns en Pwetzirajnf aif tm j secnege`jnt fi`rijsi en tdi
omrrmwenc niifs gmr tdi Pwess cmvirnkint. Jaa tdjt cjvi resi tm jn en`rijsi en tdi
pre`i mg Pwess @mngifirjtemn omnfs. Gecuri : sdmws tdi ri`int fiviampkints en
tdi omnf kjrbit! wde`d en tdi piremf grmk tdi mnsit mg tdi YP `rifet `reses en ajti
?883 untea tdi wentir mg ?8:? wjs fmkenjtif oy envistmrs djvenc amw
ixpi`tjtemns jomut guturi i`mnmke` crmwtd. En tdes ricjrf! pre`is mg cmvirnkint
omnfs mg sjgi djvin jnf trepai+J rjtif `muntreis en`rijsif! mwenc tm decd fikjnf
tdjt pusdif tdi omnfs pre`is up jamnc wetd frjccenc fmwn tdi omnfs yeiafs.
Jnmtdir gj`tmr tdjt `mntreoutif tm tdi jppri`ejtemn mg tdi Pwess grjn` es tdi
decd rija entirist rjtis! in`mkpjssenc tdi amw aivia mg engajtemn ixpi`tjtemns en
Pwetzirajnf. Js Gecuri 5 sdmws en entirnjtemnja `mkpjresmn! Pwetzirajnf djs oiin
tdi `muntry wetd tdi decdist rija entirist rjtis. Vdisi rjtis jri `ja`uajtif grmk tdi
0+kmntd Pwess Aeomr rjti tdjt tdin cit jflustif gmr tdi rjti mg engajtemn.
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
28/106
?4
Gecuri 5. _ija entirist rjtis en Pwetzirajnf! tdi iurm jrij! Ynetif Ptjtis!
jnf Ynetif Bencfmk! :559+?8:?
Pmur`i< YOP! Pwess @djrtsit ?8:?.
Kmrimvir! tdiri es j secnege`jnt fes`ripjn`y oitwiin rija entirist rjtis en tdi iurm
jrij jnf Pwetzirajnf. Nmtjoay! tdi rija entirist rjti en tdi iurm jrij es runnenc
nicjtevi jnf `mkpjrif tm tdi rija entirist rjti en Pwetzirajnf! wde`d kmfirjtis
nijr zirm aivias! gjvmurs secnege`jnt kmvikints mg `jpetja entm tdi Pwess
i`mnmky. Vdi kjen `mntreoutmr gmr nicjtevi iurm+jrij entirist rjtis es tdi decdir
engajtemn rjti. Js j risuat mg tdisi gj`tmrs! Pwetzirajnf djs ixpirein`if jn engamw
mg `jpetja grmk Iurmpijn envistmrs wdm wjnt tm prmti`t tdier wijatd grmk amsenc
vjaui.
Jnmtdir rijsmn gmr tdi jppri`ejtemn mg tdi Pwess grjn` wjs tdi decd fikjnf
grmk gmriecnirs en tdi Pwess dmusenc kjrbit. J``mrfenc tm prmpirty dmusencenfe`is! dmusenc pre`is en Pwetzirajnf djvi en`rijsif furenc tdi `reses. Vdes djs
kjfi tdi `muntry jn jttrj`tevi fistenjtemn gmr gmriecn envistmrs wdm wjnt tm envist
en tdi Pwess dmusenc kjrbit. En jffetemn! tdi riseaeint Pwess prmpirty kjrbit kjfi
tdmsi envistmrs wdm djf jarijfy envistif en Pwetzirajnf nmt weaaenc tm rijaam`jti
tdier envistkints jormjf.
En jffetemn! tdi ri`int ixpjnsemnjry kmnitjry pmae`y mg tdi Pwess Njtemnja
Ojnb jnf ets amwir rjtis mg entirist jasm `mntreoutif js jnmtdir gj`tmr gmr tdi
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
29/106
?5
strmnc vjaui mg tdi Pwess grjn`. Gecuri :8 sdmws tdi ainfenc j`teveteis mg gmriecn
`mkkir`eja ojnbs! wde`d jri riprisintif en tdi gecuri js gmriecn aejoeaeteis gmr tdi
PNO.
Gecuri :8. Ainfenc oy `mkkir`eja ojnbs! ?88?+::
Pmur`i< Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb $?8:?`%.
Nmte`ijoay! tdiy sby rm`bif en ?885! js smki Ijstirn Iurmpijn `muntreis djf tm
rjesi tdier entirist rjtis tm `uro engajtemn! wde`d kjfi ojnbs genjn`i tdier
j`teveteis grmk tdi amw rjtis Pwess entirojnb kjrbit. Vdi en`rijsi en tdi jkmunt
mg amjns cevin tm gmriecn ojnbs iae`etif j decd fikjnf gmr Pwess grjn`
finmkenjtif kmrtcjci amjns. Vdes enetejaay prissurif tdi vjaui mg tdi Pwess grjn`
fmwn js su`d amjns jri usujaay ekkifejtiay `mnvirtif entm iurms. Dmwivir! wdin
su`d amjns djvi tm oi ripjef! gmriecn ojnbs ixir`esif jn upwjrf prissuri mn
Pwess grjn` ix`djnci rjtis.
Vdi pmaete`ja stjoeaety en Pwetzirajnf djs oiin jnmtdir smur`i mg strinctd gmr
tdi Pwess grjn`. Vdi smunfniss jnf trjnspjrin`y mg tdi Pwess pmaete`ja jggjers aijf
tm engamw mg gmriecn `jpetja oy ojse`jaay rikmvenc jny pmaete`ja jnf i`mnmke`
ojrreir gmr entirnjtemnja envistmrs.
Vdiri jri mtdir i`mnmke` enfe`jtmrs tdjt lustegy tdi jrcukint tdjt Pwetzirajnf
djs oi`mki jn jttrj`tevi fistenjtemn gmr envistmrs furenc tdi ri`int `reses. Pmki mg
tdik jri tdi camoja i`mnmke` fmwnturn! decdir rija CFX crmwtd en Pwetzirajnf!
amwir Pwess unikpamykint rjtis! jnf j pmsetevi crmwtd feggirinteja oitwiin
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
30/106
08
Pwetzirajnf jnf tdi iurm jrij. J``mrfenc tm YOP $?8:0o% jnf tdi stjteste`ja fjtj
grmk tdierPwess @djrtsitripmrt! tdi pmsetevi feggirinteja gmr Pwetzirajnf en CFX
crmwtd rjncis grmk 8.9 pir `int en ?887 jnf ?8:: tm ?.9 pir`int en ?885. En ?8:?!
tdi cjp wjs istekjtif tm oi :.9 pir`intjci pments. Dmwivir! tdi trinf jppijrs tm
oi fi`aenenc wetd j smkidmw sdrenbenc CFX crmwtd feggirinteja oitwiin
Pwetzirajnf jnf tdi iurm jrij. Vdi YOP prmli`temn es lustegeif oy tdi ixpi`tif
pmsetevi fiviampkints en iurm+jrij CFX.
Djvenc rij`dif ets pjr vjaui wetd tdi iurm en tdi tderf qujrtir mg ?8:: $Gecuri
::%! mwnenc tm sivirja preki gj`tmrs su`d js j fitiremrjtenc wmraf i`mnmky jnf
fi`rijsif resb jppiteti! tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb fi`efif tm entrmfu`i jn
ix`djnci rjti gammr. Vdjt kmvi wjs lustegeif oy tdi vjaui mg tdi Pwess grjn` premr
tm ?8:8. Js Gecuri :: eaaustrjtis! tdi Pwess grjn` wjs unfirvjauif premr tm tdi
Iurmpijn smviriecn fiot `reses. Vdi fes`ripjn`y oitwiin tdi kjrbit vjaui mg tdi
Pwess grjn` wetd ets gjer vjaui oicjn tm cm en tdi mppmseti feri`temn wetd tdi mnsit
mg tdi `rifet `reses jnf sjgi djvin fikjnf. Vdi `reses aif tm tdi kjssevi
mvirvjaujtemn mg tdi Pwess grjn`! smkitdenc tdjt Lmrfjn $?8:?o% jrcuis wmuaf
`jusi j kjlmr fjkjci tm tdi Pwess i`mnmky.
Gecuri :: . Pwess grjn` fevircin`i tm gjer vjaui! ?888+:?
Pmur`i< @rifet Puessi I`mnmke` _isijr`d $?8:?%.
Gecuri :? pamts nit pmsetemns en tdi Pwess `urrint jnf genjn`eja j``munts! tmcitdir
wetd tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb gmriecn risirvis pmsetemn. J``mrfenc tm tdi ojajn`i+
mg+pjykints jpprmj`d! sen`i ?884! tdi vjaui mg tdi Pwess grjn` jnf tdi `jpetjas
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
31/106
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
32/106
0?
Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb en`rijsif tm kmri tdjn ::8 oeaaemn Pwess grjn`s. J``mrfenc
tm tdi jssit jaam`jtemn strjticy mg tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb! jny pur`djsis mg
gmriecn risirvis riprisint j pur`djsi mg gmriecn `urrin`y jnf mutrecdt envistkint
nmrkjaay en trepai+J si`ureteis! su`d js cmvirnkint omnfs. Vdes es rigai`tif js jn
mutgamw en tdi genjn`eja j``munt! sen`i tdi gmriecn `urrin`y es gamwenc mut mg tdi
`muntreis jnf jny suosiquint en`mki ri`iepts es rigai`tif js engamw en tdi `urrint
j``munt. Vdi jssit jaam`jtemn mg gmriecn envistkints djs oiin jrmunf 99 pir `int
en iurm finmkenjtif jssits! sm tdjt et es ekpmrtjnt tm nmte`i tdjt mnay 99 pir `int
mg risirvi jssits jri en iurms. Vdirigmri! mni `jn `mn`aufi tdjt j :88 pir`intjci
en`rijsi en tdi risirvi jssits wmuaf aijf tm 99 pir `int en`rijsi en tdi vjaui mg tdi
iurm jnf 99 pir `int fi`rijsi en tdi vjaui mg tdi Pwess grjn`.
:.9. Essuis `mn`irnenc tdi ix`djnci rjti gammr mn tdi Pwessgrjn`
Vdiri jri nukirmus essuis mni `jn genf en tdi ri`int ixpjnsemnjry kmnitjry
pmae`y mg tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb. Vdi kmstay fiojtif essuis mrecenjti grmk tdi
ekpaikintjtemn mg j kenekuk ix`djnci rjti gammr mn tdi Pwess grjn`. Vdjt
fi`esemn `mkis enivetjoay wetd j suostjnteja ixpjnsemn en tdi ojajn`i sdiit mg tdi
Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb jnf sivirja `mrriajtif resbs.
Gerst mg jaa! jny resbs mg engajtemnjry prissuris! riajtenc tm tdi crmwenc gmriecn
`urrin`y risirvis! wmuaf gmr`i tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb tm gaep ets pmae`y stjn`i
oj`b tm `mntrj`temnjry.
Nixt! en ricjrf tm tdi PNOs envistkints! jny orjbi en tdi pmae`y stjn`i wmuaf
aijf tm crijt amssis mrecenjtenc grmk tdi Ojnbs envistkints en gmriecn jssits. Jt
tdi teki mg wretenc $Kjy ?8:0%! tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb dmafs jrmunf 649 oeaaemn
Pwess grjn`s en jssits! wde`d jri iquevjaint tm kmri tdjn djag tdi Pwess CFX
$jrmunf 788 oeaaemn Pwess grjn`s%. Vdirigmri! tdisi pmsetemns `muaf orenc amssis mg
sivirja pir`intjci pments mg tdi `muntrys CFX eg tdi iurm `reses wmrsins. Vdjt
wmuaf pusd tdi IY_-@DG ix`djnci rjti gurtdir fmwn risuatenc en Pwess Njtemnja
Ojnbs `msts mwenc tm ix`djnci rjti amssis mn ets envistkint pmsetemn.
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
33/106
00
En jffetemn! jny en`mnsestin`y en tdi kmnitjry pmae`y stjn`i wmuaf risuat en j
amss mg `rifeoeaety gmr tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb.
Genjn`eja jnf ojnbenc enstjoeaety es jasm j tdrijf tdjt djs oiin ikircenc sen`i
tdi mnsit mg tdi ri`int ixpjnsemnjry kmnitjry pmae`y! mwenc tm tdi ekojajn`is
tdjt djvi oiin oueafenc up en omtd rija istjti jnf `rifet kjrbits en Pwetzirajnf.
Vdi jfvirsi `mnsiquin`is gmr tdi Pwess i`mnmky `muaf oi siviri! eg mni
`mnsefirs tdi ajst rija+istjti `reses en Pwetzirajnf. Vdirigmri! tdi Pwess Njtemnja
Ojnb $?8:0j% js mg Giorujry ?8:0 riquistif tm tdi Gifirja @mun`ea jn j`tevjtemn
mg tdi @muntir`y`ae`ja @jpetja Ouggir $@@O%.
Jnmtdir essui tdjt weaa nmt oi ixjkenif diri es tdi entirnjtemnja j``iptjn`i mg
tdi Pwess `urrin`y fivjaujtemn. Vdi resb mg `urrin`y wjr es resenc sen`i tdi ri`int
kjniuvirs mg tdi Ojnb mg Ljpjn jnf tdi gmaamwenc entirnjtemnja rij`temns. Din`i!
tdi stjn`i mg tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb js ricjrfs tdi ix`djnci rjti mg tdi Pwess
grjn` sdmuaf nmt oi pir`ievif js j wjy tm cjen smki entirnjtemnja `mkpitetevi
jfvjntjci out js j wjy tm jffriss figajtemnjry fiviampkints! mwenc tm j kjssevi
mvirvjaujtemn mg tdi Pwess grjn`.
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
34/106
06
@djptir ?
?. Vdi resbs gmr pre`i jnf genjn`eja stjoeaety enPwetzirajnf
Vdes `djptir gm`usis mn pre`i jnf genjn`eja stjoeaety! oi`jusi omtd jri pjrt mg tdi
moli`tevis mg tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb. Et ixpajens en ets si`mnf pjrt wdy insurenc
genjn`eja stjoeaety `mkis jamnc wetd pre`i stjoeaety js jn jffetemnja tjsb! wde`d es
enferi`tay pjrt mg tdi PNO kjnfjti. Gerst! tdi `djptir figenis tdi teki grjki mg
tdi ri`int kmnitjry pmae`y jnf tdi prmcriss kjfi tmwjrfs genjn`eja stjoeaety en j
grjkiwmrb mg pre`i stjoeaety. Gurtdir! et jnjayzis tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb
kmnitjry enstrukints jnf kmri pjrte`uajr tdi pur`djsis mg gmriecn ix`djnci
risirvis furenc j piremf mg pre`i stjoeaety tdjt stjrtif en Nmvikoir ?885 jnf
ajstif untea Piptikoir ?8::. Ajstay! cevin tdi jssukptemn mg nm resb jnf `mst
mrecenjtenc grmk tdi ri`int kmnitjry prmcrjkki mg Piptikoir ?8::! et `mnstru`ts
j dypmtdite`ja prmli`temn gmr tdi pjtd mg fiviampkint mg tdi kjen entirist rjti en
Pwetzirajnf. Mur kmfia `mnsefirs tdi kmst ri`int YP i`mnmke` prmli`temn jnf
tdi cuefjn`i ikoiffif en et gmr tdi gmrwjrf fiviampkint mg tdi gifirja gunfs rjti!
wde`d! js ixpajenif en tdi `djptir! ixpirein`is sekeajr vmajteai kmvikint js fmis
tdi 0+kmntd Aeomr mn Pwess grjn`s. Vdi `djptir jasm jffrissis tdi genjn`eja
stjoeaety setujtemn en Pwetzirajnf! wde`d `urrintay sdmws secns mg pjrtay oijrenc
`mnsiquin`is stikkenc grmk tdi ri`int PNO kjrbit entirvintemns. Kmrimvir! et
jnjayzis tdisi sefi iggi`ts jnf resb! jnf gm`usis ekpmrtjntay mn tdi stjoeaety jnf
smunfniss mg tdi Pwess ojnbenc systik. Vdi `mn`ausemn mg tdes `djptir sdmws tdjt
et es nmt pmsseoai tm pri`esiay js`irtjen tdi mrecen mg oueaf+up mg ekojajn`is en tdi
kmrtcjci `rifet jnf rija istjti kjrbits.
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
35/106
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
36/106
07
@mnstetutemn jnf en tdi Njtemnja Ojnb J`t. En tdes ricjrf! js tdi Pwess Njtemnja
Ojnb stjtis et! jny ki`djne`ja j`ts! su`d js tdmsi en rispmnsi tm engajtemn gmri`jst
feggirintejas! weaa oi ecnmrif! mwenc tm tdi gj`ts tdjt engajtemn `jnnmt oi kijsurif
j``urjtiay jnf et es nmt jawjys `mncruintay jggi`tenc tdi i`mnmke` mutammb mg tdi
`muntry. En jffetemn! tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb sdmuaf tjbi entm `mnsefirjtemn tdi
cinirja fiviampkint mg tdi Pwess i`mnmky jnf ojnbenc systik. Vdirigmri! mni
`jn `mn`aufi tdjt tdi figajtemnjry fiviampkints grmk Kjr`d ?885 tm M`tmoir
?885 fef nmt pmsi j secnege`jnt tdrijf gmr tdi mvirjaa dijatd mg tdi Pwess i`mnmky!
ivin tdmucd stjteste`ja fjtj grmk Luay ?885 sdmws tdjt tdi `mnsukir pre`i enfix
wint fmwn oy :.? pir `int en tdi keffai mg ?885.
?.:.?. Kmnitjry pmae`y enstrukints
Vdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb! js kintemnif ijraeir! sdmuaf cujrjntii pre`i stjoeaety. Et
fmis nmt sit engajtemn tjrcits! dmwivir! js nmt iviry pre`i kmvikint es figenetiay
engajtemnjry jnf engajtemn rjtis `jnnmt oi kijsurif pri`esiay. Dmwivir! tdi Pwess
Njtemnja Ojnb sits j tjrcit rjnci gmr tdi tdrii+kmntd Pwess grjn` Aeomr! wde`d es
tdi jvirjci rjti mg entirist jt wde`d ojnbs jnf mtdir genjn`eja enstetutemns ainf tm
ij`d mtdir mn tdi entirojnb jnf genjn`eja kjrbits. Vdi amjns tjbin jt tdi Aeomr jri
unsi`urif jnf un`maajtirjaezif. En mrfir tm j`deivi ets kmnitjry pmae`y! tdi Pwess
Njtemnja Ojnb usis j : pir`intjci pment `mrrefmr wetden wde`d et jeks tm biip tdi
Aeomr. Vdi Ojnb djs sivirja tmmas tdjt et `jn usi tm engauin`i tdi fiviampkint mg
tdi Aeomr! su`d js PJ_MN! tdjt es! tdi Pwess Jvirjci _jti Mvirnecdt. Vdi
PJ_MN es tdi entirist rjti jt wde`d tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb es weaaenc tm prmvefi
aequefety jcjenst `maajtirja mn tdi entirojnb ripm kjrbit. Vdi wjy et wmrbs es tdjt
tdi Njtemnja Ojnb ouys feggirint si`ureteis grmk `mkkir`eja ojnbs jnf `rifets
tdier secdt fipmsets j``munts jt tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb. Jt tdi sjki teki! tdi
`muntirpjrty es moaecif tm ripur`djsi tdi si`ureteis jt j ajtir fjti jnf tm pjy tdi
PJ_MN entirist rjti. En jffetemn tm prmvefenc aequefety! oy sittenc j PJ_MN rjti
et ixir`esis j fmwnwjrfs prissuri mn mr prmvefis j `ieaenc gmr tdi Aeomr tmwjrfs
tdi `dmsin tjrcit rjnci! oy prmvefenc ojnbs wetd tdi mppmrtunety tm ainf mutsefi
mg tdi kjrbit. @urrintay! tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb djs sit j tjrcit rjnci mg 8.88 tm
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
37/106
03
8.?9 pir`int gmr tdi Aeomr! wetd PJ_MN iquja tm +8.8: pir `int jnf j`tuja Aeomr
jt 8.8? pir `int. Vdi mtdir tmma en tdi djnfs mg tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb es tdi
fipmset entirist rjti. Vdes es tdi entirist rjti ojnbs ijrn gmr fipmsetenc tdier gunfs
en tdier j``munts jt tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb. Oy stiirenc tdes rjti tdi Ojnb sits j
gammr gmr tdi Aeomr! oy sekpay fes`murjcenc ojnbs tm ainf tm ij`d mtdir jt j amwir
rjti $Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb! ?886%.
Sdin tdi Aeomr es en tdi tjrcit rjnci jnf tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb sdmuaf tjbi
gurtdir ixpjnsemnjry j`temns! et `jn usi jnmtdir pmae`y enstrukint tm engauin`enc
tdi Aeomr jnf tm prmvefi aequefety. En tdes rispi`t! tdi Ojnb ikpamys twm kjen
tmmas. Vdi gerst jri mpin kjrbit mpirjtemns en wde`d tdi Ojnb tjbis tdi enetejtevi
jnf `mnfu`ts ripur`djsi jcriikints tm prmvefi aequefety mr essuis ets mwn oeaas tm
josmro kjrbit aequefety. Vdi si`mnf kjen enstrukint es tdi stjnfenc gj`eaeteis!
tdrmucd wde`d tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb j`ts js j sdmrt+tirk aequefety prmvefir.
@urrintay! tdi spi`eja rjti mg entirist mn tdi aequefety+sdmrtjci gj`eaety es 8.9 pir
`int. Oy oienc su`d j prmvefir mg ikircin`y aequefety! tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb
privints kjrbit omttaini`bs en j `jsi wdin tdiri jri unixpi`tif niifs mg
aequefety tdjt `jnnmt oi motjenif que`bay inmucd mn tdi entirojnb kjrbit $Pwess
Njtemnja Ojnb! ?886%.
En jffetemn! tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb djs j``iss tm mtdir enstrukints su`d js
gmriecn ix`djnci swjps. Vdjt enstrukint es usujaay `mntrj`tif wetd mtdir `intrja
ojnbs tm prmvefi aequefety wdin jnf wdiri niifif. Kmrimvir! tdi Ojnb `jn
pur`djsi mr siaa gmriecn `urrin`y ri`ievjoais mr firevjtevis mn ri`ievjoais tm
fiaevir mr wetdfrjw aequefety. Aebiwesi! tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb kjy pur`djsi mr
siaa Pwess grjn`+finmkenjtif si`ureteis $Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb! ?886%.
Vdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb tjrcit rjnci mg tdi entirojnb rjti mg entirist djscrijtay ivmavif mvir teki. Vdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb en tdi piremf grmk ?886 tm
tdi inf mg ?884 `mnfu`tif j ristre`tevi kmnitjry pmae`y. Js et `jn oi siin en
Gecuri :0 tdi uppir aeket mg tdi tjrcit rjnci rij`dif 0.?9 pir `int jnf tdi amwir
aeket ?.?9 pir `int en Piptikoir ?883! grmk tdi gmrkir oienc ?.?9 pir `int jnf
tdi ajttir :.?9 pir `int en Ljnujry ?888. Furenc j piremf mg 4 yijrs! tdi Pwess
Njtemnja Ojnb `mnfu`tif j ristre`tevi kmnitjry pmae`y! mwenc tm j ommkenc wmraf
i`mnmky. Dmwivir! wetd tdi jarijfy `mkenc jamnc YP genjn`eja `reses en tdi inf
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
38/106
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
39/106
05
ets jnnuja ripmrts jnf stjtis tdi gj`tmrs engauin`enc jny pmsseoai kmvikints en tdi
pre`i aivia! js wiaa js jny gurtdir ekpae`jtemn mg tdik gmr tdi Pwess i`mnmky. En
tdjt ricjrf! tdi ri`int kmnitjry pmae`y wjs lustegeif oy kjlmr wmraf ivints su`d
js tdi iurm+jrij `reses! tdi decd pre`i mg mea! jnf tdi strmnc jppri`ejtemn mg tdi
Pwess grjn`. Vdi PNO `mnsefirif tdjt tdisi ivints pmsi j fmwnsefi resb gmr tdi
Pwess i`mnmky jnf ets pre`i stjoeaety. Vdirigmri! et djs oiin jfvm`jtenc gmr jn
ekpaikintjtemn mg j amnc+tirk ixpjnsemnjry kmnitjry pmae`y! `djrj`tiresif oy
amwirenc tdi Pwess Aeomr tjrcit rjnci jnf prmvefenc tdi kjrbits wetd Pwess grjn`
aequefety. En Piptikoir ?8::! tdi PNO fi`efif tm put j gammr gmr tdi ix`djnci rjti
mg tdi Pwess grjn` jcjenst tdi iurm. Vdi unfirayenc kmtevi js eaaustrjtif en Gecuri
:6 wjs jffrissenc tdi gmri`jstif figajtemnjry fiviampkint! wde`d j``mrfenc tm
tdi prmli`temn mg Piptikoir ?8:: wmuaf det : pir `int gmr ekpmrtif cmmfs jt tdi
inf mg ?8::. Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb $?8::! p. :6% jrcuis tdjt tdi ekpj`t mg j strmnc
Pwess grjn` wmuaf jfvirsiay jggi`t prmget kjrcens mg entirnjtemnjaay ixpmsif
Pwess ousenissis. En jffetemn! tdi jfvirsi iggi`ts mg jn mvirvjauif Pwess grjn`
wiri nmt jt tdjt teki rigai`tif en tdi stjteste`ja fjtj jomut prmfu`temn jnf `jpj`ety
uteaezjtemn en Pwetzirajnf. Gurtdir! js Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb $?8::! p. :6% sdmws!
tdi Pwess kmnitjry enstetutemn ixpi`tif i`mnmke` crmwtd tdjt wmuaf nmt oi
inmucd tm rij`d j nmrkja `jpj`ety uteaesjtemn aivias.
En suk! Gecuri :6 sdmws tdjt en ?8:? tdi kenekuk ix`djnci rjti entrmfu`if
en Piptikoir ?8:: aeketif tdi figajtemnjry fiviampkints tdjt djf jresin js j
risuat mg tdi strmnc jppri`ejtemn mg tdi Pwess grjn`. Et oijrs ikpdjsezenc tdi
prmj`tevi njturi mg tdi Piptikoir ?8:: fi`esemn! wde`d riajtif! j``mrfenc tm
Deafiorjnf $?8::%! tm tdi figajtemnjry fiviampkints nmt prisint en Piptikoir
?8::! out jarijfy gmri`jstif js Gecuri :6 sdmws. Ekpmrtjntay! tdi jutdmr jrcuistdjt tdmsi figajtemnjry prissuris en Pwetzirajnf weaa oi `jrryenc tdi unoijrjoai
resb mg amnc+tirk i`mnmke` dijfwenfs. Vdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb $?8::! pp. :6!
?4% pjrtay `mnni`ts tdi Piptikoir ?8:: fi`esemn tm amsenc smki `mkpitetevi
jfvjntjcis mg Pwess `mkpjneis! wde`d jt tdjt teki wiri suggirenc grmk j siviri
gjaa en kjrcens! mwenc tm Pwess grjn` mvirvjaujtemn. Ekpmrtjntay! mut mg j surviy
mg :76 `mkpjneis! tdi jutdmr `mn`aufis tdjt tdi Pwess `mnstru`temn si`tmr rikjens
riseaeint jnf unjggi`tif! en `mntrjst tm tdi rispmnsis oy 57 `mkpjneis en`aufenc
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
40/106
68
tdi Pwess kjnugj`turenc jnf sirve`i enfustry! wde`d ixpirein`if secnege`jntay
nicjtevi iggi`ts grmk tdi Pwess grjn` jppri`ejtemn
Gecuri :6 Vdi PNO engajtemn gmri`jst mg Piptikoir ?8:: jnf mg
Fi`ikoir ?8:: wetd Aeomr jt 8.88 pir `int
Pmur`i< Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb $?8::%.
?.:.6. Vdi guturi mg pre`i stjoeaety en PwetzirajnfDjvenc j kmri `aijr jnf trjnspjrint vesemn jomut tdi nmkenja sdmrt+tirk entirist
rjtis mvir teki ekprmvis jcints ixpi`tjtemns. Enfiif! aiss un`irtjenty prmvefis j
kijnencgua suppmrt tm i`mnmke` crmwtd jnf lmo `rijtemn! wetd tdi 0+kmntd Pwess
Aeomr prmli`temn oienc riaivjnt gmr amnc+run engrjstru`turja mr rija istjti prmli`ts.
En tdes ricjrf! jn ix`iptemnja jnf prmamncif piremf mg amw rjtis mg entirist kecdt
ekpay j fi`rijsi en tdi aegiteki jvirjci rjti mg entirist mn kmrtcjci amjns. Mn tdi
mtdir djnf! unixpi`tif entirist rjti vmajteaety `muaf aijf tm `jpetja amssis mg tdmsi
jcints dmafenc gexif+en`mki enstrukints! en`aufenc ojnbenc enstetutemns. Pu`d j
fiviampkint kjy aijvi tdi genjn`eja systik vuanirjoai tm fi`aenenc jssit vjauis
tdjt gmr`i envistmrs tm fiaivirjci tdier pmrtgmaems jnf tm siaa jssits! frevenc jssit
pre`is ivir gurtdir fmwn.
Vdes si`temn prmvefis j twm+wjy ixjkenjtemn tdjt kjy oi usigua gmr
unfirstjnfenc tdi aebiay pjtd mg dmw entirist rjtis kecdt ivmavi en guturi. Vdi
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
41/106
6:
quistemn mg jffetemnja engmrkjtemn jomut tdi ixpi`tif kmnitjry pmae`y stjn`i jnf
kmri pjrte`uajr jomut tdi pjtd mg fiviampkint mg tdi Pwess Aeomr es riaivjnt gmr
omtd genjn`eja stjoeaety jnf kmnitjry pmae`y igge`j`y en Pwetzirajnf. Oy prmvefenc
crijtir `ajrety! tdi PNO kjy indjn`i trjnspjrin`y jnf j``muntjoeaety! jnf kjbi
ets kmnitjry pmae`y kmri iggi`tevi oy rifu`enc tdi resb mg jcints kespir`iptemns
mg PNO entintemns. Pu`d kesentirpritjtemns `muaf aijf tm en`rijsif entirist rjti
vmajteaety jnf mut`mkis tdjt wmuaf jfvirsiay jggi`t genjn`eja stjoeaety. Vdirigmri!
trjnspjrin`y jomut tdi aebiay pjtd mg entirist rjtis `jn ketecjti tdmsi resbs
stikkenc grmk unixpi`tif entirist rjti kmvikints. En jffetemn! kmnitjry pmae`y
`ajrety gj`eaetjtis tdi fi`esemn kjbenc prm`iss mg omtd dmusidmafs jnf ousenissis
oy rifu`enc un`irtjenty jomut tdi guturi.
En mrfir tm prmvefi jn jnswir tm tdi quistemn mg dmw jri tdi sdmrt+tirk entirist
rjtis aebiay tm ivmavi mvir tdi `mkenc yijrs! et es wmrtd runnenc twm feggirint
prmli`temns! mni oy fi`mkpmsenc tdi :8+yijr Pwess cmvirnkint omnf jnf jnmtdir
oy `mnfu`tenc j destmre`ja `mkpjresmn mg Pwess jnf YP kmnitjry pmae`y mvir tdi
pjst tdrii fi`jfis.
?.:.6.:. Fi`mkpmsetemn jnjaysesVm stjrt mgg oueafenc up j spi`uajtevi gmri`jst gmr tdi aebiay pjtd mg Pwess entirist
rjtis! et es usigua tm fi`mkpmsi tdi :8+yijr Pwess cmvirnkint omnf yeiafs entm
tdrii `mkpmnints. Vdi gerst `mkpmnint mg amnc+tirk omnf yeiafs es tdi ixpi`tif
rjti mg engajtemn! kijsurif oy tdi `mnsukir pre`i enfix. Js pjrt mg tdi PNO
amncir+run moli`tevi! tdi prmli`tif nukoir gmr tdi amncir+tirk moli`tevi mg twm
pir `int engajtemn `jn oi tjbin js `irtjen gmr tdi purpmsi mg mur ixjkenjtemn.Vdi si`mnf `mkpmnint es tdi ixpi`tif sdmrt+tirk rija entirist rjti mvir tdi
:8+yijr tirk mg tdi aegi mg tdi omnf. En speti mg tdi gj`t tdjt tdi Pwess kmnitjry
jutdmrety fmis nmt feri`tay engauin`i tdi sdmrt+tirk rija entirist rjti! et kjnjcis
tdi nmkenja rjti mg entirist! wde`d mvir tdi sdmrt tm kifeuk tirk trjnsajtis entm
`mntrma mg tdi rija sdmrt+tirk entirist rjtis. Vdi gj`t tdjt tdi `urrint :8+yijr Pwess
cmvirnkint omnf yeiaf js mg Jprea ?8:0 mg 8.7 pir `int en`mrpmrjtis viry amw rija
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
42/106
6?
entirist rjtis mvir tdi nixt :8 yijrs succists tdjt jcints prmli`t samw crmwtd jnf
amw rija riturns mg envistkint.
Vdi ajst `mkpmnint es tdi tirk prikeuk mr entirist rjti resb. Et in`mkpjssis
tdi ixtrj riturn envistmrs fikjnf tm motjen grmk dmafenc amnc+tirk omnfs js
mppmsif tm dmafenc jnf rmaaenc mvir j siquin`i mg sdmrt+tirk si`ureteis.
Setden tdes grjkiwmrb! risuats gmr tdi resb prikeuk ikoiffif en tdi :8+yijr
Pwess cmvirnkint omnf yeiafs wiri prmfu`if oy Diaairstien $?8::%! wdm
ixjkenif Pwess cmvirnkint omnfs jnf ri`bmnif piremfs mg teki wetd nicjtevi
resb prikeuk `mntreoutemn gmr tdi :8+yijr Pwess cmvirnkint omnf yeiaf.
Vdi aigt pjrt mg Gecuri :9 sdmws tdjt sen`i :554 tdi envistmrs en tdi Pwess
amnc+tirk omnf kjrbit djvi fikjnfif nicjtevi tirk prikeuk! en piremfs tdjt
usujaay gmaamw j siviri i`mnmke` jnf genjn`eja `reses. Gmr ixjkpai! tdi _ussejn
figjuat jnf tdi AV@K ojeamut en tdi gjaa mg :554! js wiaa js tdi mnsit mg tdi
Iurmpijn smviriecn fiot `reses en ?8:8! omtd cjvi resi tm nicjtevi tirk prikeuk.
Vdi kjen rijsmn gmr tdjt es tdjt envistmrs ixpi`tjtemns ricjrfenc Pwess kmnitjry
pmae`y j`temns kjnegist en prmli`tenc decday j``mkkmfjtevi kmnitjry `mnfetemns
tdjt jri aebiay tm sustjen gmr smki teki tdi i`mnmke` setujtemn. Furenc piremfs mg
genjn`eja turkmea! tdi entirist rjti resb fi`aeni! mwenc tm j sjgi+djvin fikjnf gmr
amncir+tirk cmvirnkint omnfs.
Gecuri :9. :8+yijr Pwess cmvirnkint omnf yeiafs jnf tirk prikeuks!
:554+?8::
Pmur`i< Diaairstien $?8::! p. :3%.
Ekpmrtjntay! tdi recdt pjnia mg Gecuri :9 sdmws tdjt tdi YP `rifet `reses mg ?884
djs treccirif j fmwnwjrf kmvikint en Pwess omnf yeiafs. Vdi stru`turja prmoaik
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
43/106
60
en tdi iurm jrij tdin jppijrs tm secnege`jntay djvi iaivjtif tdi sjgi+djvin fikjnf
mn tdi omnf kjrbit! pusdenc fmwn omnf yeiafs jnf ekpayenc j amwir! mr ivin j
nicjtevi! tirk prikeuk.
Dmwivir! tdi cjp oitwiin yeiafs jnf tirk prikeuk rjtis djs jawjys oiin
`amsiay jrmunf twm pir `int. Cevin tdi gj`t tdjt omnf yeiafs iquja tdi suk mg tdi
rija sdmrt+tirk entirist rjti! tdi rjti mg engajtemn jnf tirk prikeuk! jaa mvir tdi
aegiteki mg tdi si`urety! tdi feggirin`i oitwiin tdi omnf yeiaf jnf tirk prikeuk
istekjtif oy Diaairstien $?8::% kjnegists en j ? pir `int rjti cjp tdjt en`mrpmrjtis
tdi ixpi`tif viry amw rija entirist rjti jnf tdi ixpi`tif kjxekuk engajtemn mg ?
pir `int. Cevin tdi gj`t tdjt en tdi amncir+run engajtemn ixpi`tjtemns jnte`epjti ?
pir `int @XE engajtemn! mni `jn ri`bmn tdjt `urrintay tdi amnc+run rija entirist rjti
mvir tdi nixt :8 yijrs en`mrpmrjtis j 8 pir `int rija sdmrt+tirk entirist rjti.
Cevin tdi jssukptemn mg j sustjenif ? pir `int cjp oitwiin tdi omnf yeiaf
jnf tirk prikeuk! jamnc wetd tdi setujtemn en tdi omnf kjrbit js eaaustrjtif en
Gecuri :9! wde`d sen`i ?8:8 djs ivmavif en amwir amnc+tirk entirist rjtis! mni `jn
`ajek j `urrintay prisint nicjtevi tirk prikeuk gmr tdi Pwess cmvirnkint omnf
yeiaf mg +:.6 pir `int. Vdes nicjtevi nukoir kjnegists en tdi `mkpinsjtemn tdjt
omnfdmafirs jri aebiay tm prmvefi gmr tdi prmojoeaety mg resb mg `jpetja cjens tdjt
kjy mrecenjti grmk j sustjenif piremf mg nm entirist rjti `djncis. En jffetemn! tdi
nicjtevi `mntreoutemn mg tdi tirk prikeuk `jn oi jttreoutif tm ixpi`tjtemns mg
pirsestint samw i`mnmke` crmwtd! wde`d jasm riqueris jn j``mkkmfjtevi
kmnitjry pmae`y.
En mrfir tm sustjen pre`i stjoeaety! tdi PNO weaa ixir`esi upwjrf prissuri mn
tdi sdmrt+tirk entirist rjti wdin tdi rjti mg engajtemn dets tdi ? pir `int tdrisdmaf
aivia. J``mrfenc tm tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb $?8:0`! p. :4% jnf ets `mnfetemnjaengajtemn gmri`jst jssukenc j 8 pir `int sdmrt+tirk entirist rjti! engajtemn weaa
rikjen suofuif jrmunf 8.5 pir `int jt aijst untea tdi inf mg ?8:9. Pu`d amw
ixpi`tif engajtemn rjtis weaa nmt treccir j `djnci en sdmrt+tirk entirist rjtis mvir
tdi nixt tdrii yijrs. Dmwivir! mvir tdi amncir+run rija sdmrt+tirk entirist rjtis
`jn oi ixpi`tif tm rikjen nijr tdi zirm aivia! js j crjfuja en`rijsi en tdi nmkenja
sdmrt+tirk entirist rjti weaa oi trjnsajtenc en `mntrmaaenc engajtemnjry prissuris.
Jny upwjrf `mrri`temns en tdi rija entirist rjti jri prekjreay engauin`if oy nmn+
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
44/106
66
kmnitjry gj`tmrs! su`d js tdi ixpi`tif riturn mg `jpetja envistkints! wde`d en turn
es `amsiay riajtif tm tdi unfirayenc strinctd mg tdi i`mnmky. Pu`d kmvikints
djvi tm oi pri`ifif oy en`rijsenc tirk prikeuk jnf amnc+tirk entirist rjtis. Jn
en`rijsi en tdi amnc+tirk entirist rjtis eaaustrjtif en jn upwjrf kmvi en tdi yeiafs
mg tdi amnc+tirk cmvirnkint omnf es aebiay tm kmvi tdi tirk prikeuk upwjrfs!
succistenc tdjt kmnitjry pmae`y weaa ixpirein`i j `djnci en ets stjn`i grmk
j``mkkmfjtevi tmwjrfs ristre`tevi.
En `mn`ausemn! js amnc+tirk entirist rjtis jri tdi suk mg ixpi`tif engajtemn
rjtis! ixpi`tif rija sdmrt+tirk entirist rjtis! jnf j tirk prikeuk! j `djnci en tdi
nmkenja sdmrt+tirk entirist rjti sdmuaf oi ixpi`tif wdin @XE engajtemn runs
jrmunf tdi ? pir `int tdrisdmaf. Pu`d j `djnci sdmuaf oi pri`ifif oy jn en`rijsi
en tdi tirk prikeuk en tdi tirk stru`turi mg amncir+tirk Pwess cmvirnkint
omnfs. Kmrimvir! tdi `urrint i`mnmke` setujtemn jnf tdi fiviampkint en tdi omnf
kjrbit ixpi`t rija entirist rjtis tm rikjen amw! rigai`tenc tdi wijbniss mg tdi
ri`mviry en jfvjn`if i`mnmkeis! jamnc wetd amw rija rjti mg amnc tirk
envistkints riturn.
Vdi resb mg amncir+tirk entirist rjti debi! jamnc wetd tdi resb mg engajtemnjry
fiviampkints nijr tdi ? pir `int kmfirjti aivia! ekpmsi j resb gmr tdi genjn`eja
enfustry! wde`d kecdt in`muntir `jpetja amssis mwenc tm ixpi`tif nmkenja sdmrt+
tirk entirist rjti rjesi. Js j risuat! trjnspjrin`y js ricjrfs `djncis en entirist
rjtis weaa diap ekprmvi tdi kjrbit ixpi`tjtemn mg envistmrs jnf diap tdik sustjen
tdier rmai en tdi i`mnmky js `rifet prmvefirs.
?.:.6.?. _itrmspi`tevi jnjayses
En mrfir tm istjoaesd jnmtdir aenb ricjrfenc tdi pmsseoai guturi fiviampkints en
tdi kmnitjry pmae`y stjn`i mg tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb! ait us gm`us mn ixtirnja
gj`tmrs jnf kmri spi`ege`jaay mn tdmsi kmst ekpmrtjnt gmr j dypmtdite`ja prmli`temn
jomut tdi pmsseoai guturi `djncis en Pwess nmkenja sdmrt+tirk entirist rjtis.
Ekpmrtjntay! tdes si`temn lustegeis tdi efij mg usenc YP kmnitjry pmae`y cuefjn`i
js j oin`dkjrb gmr guturi `djncis en tdi Pwess kmnitjry pmae`y stjn`i. Vdi usi
mg su`d j oin`dkjrb `jn en`rijsi tdi trjnspjrin`y mg Pwess kmnitjry pmae`y!
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
45/106
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
46/106
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
47/106
63
Pi`mnfay! wi djvi tm ixjkeni tdi sekeajreteis ricjrfenc tdi fiviampkints en tdi
YP jnf Pwess `mnsukir pre`i enfixis. Gecuri :4 pamts omtd engajtemn enfixis gmr j
piremf mg :0 yijrs! stjrtenc en :555. Pen`i :555! omtd enfixis djvi oiin
ixpirein`enc `mkpjrjoai vmajteaety js ricjrfs tdier mvirjaa riajtevi `djnci. Oigmri
?884! engajtemn rjtis en omtd `muntreis rikjenif decd. Dmwivir! sen`i tdi mnsit mg
tdi `rifet `reses en ?884! engajtemn rjtis gjeaif tm kmfirjti jnf ivin pauncif en tdi
keffai mg ?884 en Pwetzirajnf jnf tdi Ynetif Ptjtis aebiwesi. Nivirtdiaiss! tdi
mvirjaa fiviampkint en j grjkiwmrb mg ristrjenif i`mnmke` crmwtd jgtir tdi `reses
siiks tm rigai`t sekeajr Pwess jnf YP engajtemnjry fiviampkints. Dmwivir! tdi
Pwess rjti mg engajtemn djs oiin `djrj`tirezif oy saecdtay kmfist kmfirjtemn!
`mkpjrif tm tdi engajtemn rjti en tdi Ynetif Ptjtis! js et wjs tdi `jsi jt tdi inf mg
?885 jnf sen`i tdin. En cinirja! omtd enfixis wiri en j``mrf! lustegyenc tdi
entirfipinfin`i oitwiin tdi Pwess jnf tdi YP kmnitjry jccricjtis.
Gecuri :4. YP @XE jnf Pwess @XE! :555+?8:0
Pmur`i< Jutdmrs iajomrjtemn wetd fjtj grmk tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb jnf tdi YP
Gifirja _isirvi.
Gecuri :5 eaaustrjtis tdi ivmautemn mg tdi kjen rigirin`i entirist rjtis en tdi
Ynetif Ptjtis jnf Pwetzirajnf! njkiay tdi Gifirja gunfs rjti jnf Pwess 0+kmntd
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
48/106
64
Aeomr. Omtd entirist rjtis gmaamw tdi sjki pjttirn sen`i :555! jatdmucd tdi
kjcnetufi mg `djncis en tdi Pwess 0+kmntd Aeomr djs oiin runnenc aecdtay oiamw
tdi mni mg tdi YP Gifirja gunfs rjti. Nmte`i tdi `mnsirvjtevi njturi mg Pwess
kmnitjry pmae`y en tirks mg rjti debis! sen`i tdes wmuaf en`rijsi tdi riajtevi vjaui
mg tdi Pwess grjn` jnf tdirigmri ekpj`t mn tdi Pwess ixpmrts si`tmr nicjteviay. En
jffetemn! sen`i ?885! js Gecuri :5 sdmws! omtd tdi YP jnf tdi Pwess kmnitjry
pmae`eis djvi oiin `djrj`tirezif wetd ri`mrf amw rigirin`i entirist rjtis. Omtd
`intrja ojnbs lustegy tdier fi`esemn mn gmstirenc kjrbit aequefety oy tdi niif tm
spur i`mnmke` crmwtd jnf tm ketecjti fmwnsefi resbs tm i`mnmke` j`tevety. Cevin
tdi gj`t tdjt camoja envistmrs siib decdir riturns! jny entirist rjti feggirintejas
jssm`ejtif wetd feggirin`is en tdi Pwess jnf tdi YP kmnitjry pmae`eis kjy
prmkmti `rmss+omrfir `jpetja gamws! fispeti tdi gj`t tdjt tdiri jri kmri fmkenjnt
rijsmns oidenf `jpetja gamws su`d js resb sintekint jnf i`mnmke` crmwtd
ixpi`tjtemns. En suk! njtemnja kmnitjry pmae`eis jri aebiay tm jflust aebiwesi tm
entirist rjti feggirintejas. Vdirigmri! mni kjy `ajek tdjt jny rijsmnjoai jnf
sustjenjoai pj`i mg CFX! engajtemn! jnf ikpamykint crmwtd en tdi Ynetif Ptjtis
tdjt j``mrfenc tm tdi Gif weaa treccir jn en`rijsi en tdi tjrcit mg tdi gifirja gunf
rjti weaa prmojoay risuat en j resi en sdmrt+tirk entirist rjtis en Pwetzirajnf.
Gecuri :5. Gifirja gunfs rjti jnf Pwess 0+kmntd Aeomr! :555+?8:0
Pmur`i< Jutdmrs iajomrjtemn wetd fjtj grmk tdi Pwess Njtemnja Ojnb jnf tdi YP
Gifirja _isirvi.
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
49/106
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
50/106
-
7/22/2019 NACHEV Master Thesis
51/106
9:
secnege`jnt ekprmvikint en tdi YP mutammb jnf unikpamykint tdrisdmaf orij`d en
?8:9. Kmrimvir! tdi GMK@ jnte`epjtis engajtemn rjtis tm `mntenui tm oi wiaa
jn`dmrif en tdi moli`tevi mg tdi GMK@ mg aiss tdjn ? pir `int.
En aecdt mg jaa genfencs jnf oijrenc secnege`jnt ekpmrtjn`i gmr tdi trjnspjrin`y
mg Pwess kmnitjry pmae`y js ricjrfenc entirist rjti `djnci ixpi`tjtemns! jn eneteja
en`rijsi en tdi kjen Pwess rigirin`i entirist rjtis es aebiay tm oi ixpi`tif jt tdi
sjki teki js en tdi Ynetif Ptjtis. Dmwivir! tdi gmri`jst es ojsif unfir tdi
jssukptemn mg kjnjcijoai kmnitjry pmae`y resbs jnf `msts. Pu`d `mnfetemns
wmuaf biip tdi sdmrt+tirk entirist rjti en Pwetzirajnf un`djncif.
Dmwivir! en ricjrf tm kmnitjry pmae`y resbs! tdi kmst secnege`jnt mni es tdi
resb mg crmwenc ix`issis en tdi Pwess kmrtcjci `rifet jnf dmusenc kjrbits. Vdi
`mnsiquinteja `msts mg et `mnstetuti gmr j secnege`jnt jssukptemn en mur dypmtdite`ja
oin`dkjrb kmfia. Oi`jusi mg tdjt! et es mg crijt wmrtd tm ixjkeni mut jssukptemn
jnf jssiss tdi jssm`ejtif wetd tdi ri`int kmnitjry pmae`y resbs gmr Pwess
i`mnmky. Pdjaa su`d resbs kjtirejaezi! tdi PNO wmuaf oi gmr`if tm j`t
j``mrfencay jnf sit tdi rigirin`i entirist rjti.
?.?. _esbs gmr genjn`eja stjoeaetyVdes si`temn oicens wetd ixpamrenc tdi quistemn mg dmw djs tdi ri`int kmnitjry
pmae`y tdjt stjrtif