new form demography 27.07.2014

59
ЕВРОПЕЙСКИ СЪЮЗ Европейки фонд за регионално развитие Инвестираме във вашето бъдеще ОПЕРАТИВНА ПРОГРАМА „Развитие на конкурентоспособността на българската икономика” 2007-2013 www.opcompetitiveness.bg Структура на доклад в област [Демография] Част 1: Резюме Почти винаги началото при проекти и изследвания в социалната сфера или икономиката, започва с изясняване на демографската ситуация. Това е фундамента, върху който се надграждат по-следващите данни и анализи. Настоящият проект не прави изключение. Демографската информация не следва да бъде игнорирана. Напротив, тя дава общата рамка, в която ще се впишат всички други данни и индикатори. В крайна сметка не може да се започне аналитична разработка без да имаме общовалидните данни на населението. Рамката зададена от демографските индикатори и данни е особено важна, но акцент в разработването на този модул ще бъде поставен върху “работата на дребно”. Да събирането на едно място на общата демографска информация в по-дълъг хронологически план е повече от полезно и може да бъде добър фундамент за изготвяне на общонационални стратегии за решаване на демографските проблеми, за консултиране на правителствата и по-големите компанинии и коропраци за това, как демограските трендове ще влият върху макроикономическите показатели и общия икономически фон, но това е само едната страна на монетата. “Работата на дребно”, върху концентрирани усилия за събиране и обработване на демографска информация за регион или град/село, и изготвянето на прогноза за бъдещо развитие, ще има Процедура: Подкрепа за научноизследователската и развойна дейност на българските предприятия Договор №: BG161PO003-1.1.06-0060-C001 от 07.12.2012г. Проект: Иновативна система за складиране и интерпретация на данни Проектът се изпълнява от НОЕМА ООД

Upload: hristiyan-atanasov

Post on 03-Oct-2015

29 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

2007-2013 www.opcompetitiveness.bg

[] 1:

, . , - . . . , , . . , . - , - , , . , /, , ( ), ( 5 ) ( 10 ). , , , , . - .

. , - 1878 . , . , . . , - , , , , , . , , , , , , , . , , . , , , , - . , .

. . . , , - , - .

, XV . (1972), (1989), (1988) (1983), .. - (2008) (2010). (2005), (2005) . , XV XVIII , . 1831 . , - (, 2002). 60- 70- XIX ( ) . (1972). (. , 1877), [footnoteRef:2]. (2005) - , 1880 . ( ) 1884 .( ), 1887, 1892, 1900, 1905, 1910, 1920, 1926, 1934 1946 . , [footnoteRef:3]. [2: 1880 . : , , 1- 1881 ., ., 1890; : (1879) 1910 ( - ), ., 1921.] [3: . , , , , . . ., , 1974; , . . ., 1930; , . 1880-1980. : . , . 59, 1968, 2, 3-45.]

. . (1946 1989 .)[footnoteRef:4]. [4: , ., . , . , . , . . . ., 1974; , . . ., 1999.]

() , , .

. . 1990 ., 31 2012 . 7 282 041 , 1.5% . , 2004 . 2012 . 36 865 , 2004 ., 2005 . 2012 . 40 000 . 2030 . 6 519 217 , 6 611 320 (, 2012 .).

, , : , ( , ) (, 2012 .).

. , , , . 1990 , 100 . 2012 . 69 678 , 69 121 (99.2%) . 1 725 , 2.4%. 2012 . 9.5 (), 2009, 2010 2011, 10.7, 10.0 9.6. . 9.7, - 8.8 (, 2012 .).

, . 1964 ., - 7,9, , 15 2012 . (, 2012 .)

1989 . . 2001 . 2011 . 175 244 (, 2012 .). , 15 65 . - - . (, 2012 .).

, . , - (, 2012 .).

,

. , . - (, ., , . 2005). () , (Klosterman, R. E., 2008).

, , . , 2011 .(, 2011).

- . - - . 2010 . 68%, 2060 . 74 ., .. , (, 2011).

70% . , , , , , 15 64 . 72%. , , .(, 2011).

. , . , , , , , , .(, 2011).

-(, 2005) , . 0,08, 0,60(, 2009), .. - , . , (, 2005), - /0,59/, /0,41/.

, , - . , - - . , , 50 (, 2011). , . - -. -. , U-, .. 30 40- - (Clark, R., N. Ogawa, A. Mason, 2011). 50- - , - .

, . , 115 , , [footnoteRef:5]. 1 ( ) .. 0,041 .., 1 .. 0,8 .. -. , 50 , 2060 . 1,4 .. 2010 . [5: IMF, (2004), How will demographic change affect the global economy, World Economic Outlook, Ch. 3, September 2004; https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2004/02/pdf/chapter3.pdf]

, - . , , 9,1% 2010 . 11,3% 2060 ., - / 1,2 ../, -27. . 65 2 3 -, (, 2011).

, 115 , 64 . 1 .., 0,46 .[footnoteRef:6]. , , , , , 2050 . 14,2%, 2026-2035 . , 15 16%. , , , - 2050 . (, ., , ., 2008). [6: IMF, (2004), How will demographic change affect the global economy; https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2004/02/pdf/chapter3.pdf]

/ , ./ . , , , , , - - , . . , , . - - , - . - . , - . . , , , (, 2011).

, , . 50 , - . , , . 50 .

- . , , , - . , , , , , . , 2050 . , . , , (, 2011).

- , , , , , .

2:

- , , . , , , . - , - - . , , " " (1798.), . , . , , . , , , , , , . , - XX . 30- (Keynes, 1937). : , .. ; , ; . , , . - . . , . . - , . . , , . , , , . , - , , . : ; (, 2010).

. - , . , " "( Meadows, D., D. Meadows, J. Randers, W. Behrens, 1972), 1993 2004., - " " (Meadows, D., D. Meadows, J. Randers, W. Behrens. 1974). , : , - , , .

- , .. . , . , , , . , , , , . .

, .. . , ( ), . . , , .

- : , , , .. .

, , . - : ; ( ) ; ; ; (. ..) (, . 2004).

- . , ; : ; ; ; .. , , . . . , , . , , : , , , .. (, . 2004).:

; . , . , , , , : , , (, . 2004). ( ) ( ). ( , ), . ()(Crude Birth Rate, CBR). . ()(General Fertility Rate, GFR). . (15-49 .). () (Age Specific Fertility Rate, ASFR). . : 15-19; 20-24 .., , x ( ).

(Total Fertility Rate). . , (, . 2004).

, , , . . , :

:

() (Crude Death Rate). , , . - .

() (Age Specific Mortality Rates). . . .

: , ( ), , , . .

(), , , , : (, . 2004).

, :

, . - , .. , . , , , . . ; .

. : ; . .

. : , . . , 20-24 . (, . 2004).

:

, , . () , , :

: , . ;

: . .

, , . , , , .

, () () (, . 2004):

:

(Ti) ( ) . .

(V): ( 15 65 ) 100 ( 15 64 ). .

(k): () 1000 . ( ) (N - M) ( ) ..

: (, , ). -, . . .. (, . 2004)

- . , , . - (, 2013; , 2011). - . , : , . - , . - - , . . - (), (, ., , . 2008). . , , ( 5 10 ), ( 15-20 ) (25-50 ) . - 50 , . , (, 2013; , 2011). , , - . , , . () , (, 2013). . , . , - . . , . , , , .. (, 2013). , . , (, 2013). : . , . , . , - . - . . , , . . , , . , . , , . , , , (, 2011). , (Leslie, 1945). .. . , . -, - . . , . , - (, 2011). , , 2070 ., 2014 . . . , . , . [footnoteRef:7]. , . [7: http://www.nsi.bg]

, . 2010 . 2040 . 27% [footnoteRef:8]. 2013 ., . , 2050 . 40% -. 65 . 16 65 ., 2 [footnoteRef:9]. [8: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_OFFPUB/KS-SF-11-023/EN/KS-SF-11-023-EN.PDF] [9: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/09/18262916/mitigating-economic-impact-aging-population-options-bulgaria]

, , , . . , , , , . , (), . 1999 . 2007 ., (, . 2009).

.

4:

, - , , , . 1880 . 2011 . , , - , . , , , .

, :

/

. :

EUROSTAT

EUROSTAT

:

-

EUROSTAT

- ( )

EUROSTAT

-

EUROSTAT

-

EUROSTAT

-

EUROSTAT

-

EUROSTAT

( )

EUROSTAT

EUROSTAT

EUROSTAT

-

EUROSTAT

-

EUROSTAT

-

EUROSTAT

- 1

EUROSTAT

- 2

EUROSTAT

- 3

EUROSTAT

, , EUROSTAT

EUROSTAT

, EUROSTAT

EUROSTAT

EUROSTAT

, , EUROSTAT

,

EUROSTAT

, EUROSTAT

1 EUROSTAT

, ,

EUROSTAT

EUROSTAT

EUROSTAT

EUROSTAT

EUROSTAT

:

. , , -. - - . () . - , . , , . / , , . , , . , , 100 100 . 80- . , 2000 . - 120 10.3% 2011 . 2001 . 600 10 (. .2013).

()

24 . - , , , , , .

./. ( / , 2011) 3 900 ./.. 500 1 000 ./.. 500 ./..

20 .

()

, , - . - 70% . 1,5 . , 2,0 .

() 40% 35-40% 30-35% 25-30%

5: (, )

1900 . 1985 . - , , - . 1985 . 2011. . 2011 . - , , . 2011 . - . (. .2013). ()

, 2004 - , . , , (. .2013). / 1000 (2004-2011)

- , . , - , . 2009 2010 , 100 10 . , . / 1000 (2004-2011)

- , - . , , ; . , . , . , - 20072009 - - . , -, (. .2013).

(2003-2011)

, , . , - 0 29 34.5% 446 154 2011 . - 0-14 , 15-29 (. . 2013). ,

(2001-2011 .) 2 , 3 (..). .

0-29 ,

. 014 2001 . 2011 . 10-14 . 04 , 2004 . 2001 . 59 , . 1519 1991 ., . , , 20 29 . 1985 . 20-24 86 , 2011 . 119 . , -, 25-29 88 1985 . 107 2011 . ,

. 1985 . 70 85 , . 1014 46 951, 2024 118 844 2,5 . 80- , . , , , - / . 24 , 18 10 . 8 500 13- 13 500 1-. 19 . (, 2001 .).

2001 2011 . , 19 , . 19 , ( 2008 .). 2001-2011 . 5 1999 . - 29 70% . 20-24 , 28 382 39% . , 20-24 2,5 - 6 - . 12% 7 - . , 0-14 2 - .- 0 29 , , - 29% 0-29 . - (34%) 15 24. - - 0-14 - 15%. , 14% (12% ). 0-14 , 15-19 20-29 ,

, 10% ( 6%) (9%). , 15 29 , 4- 26% 25%. 23% 22%. , - 15 - 14 (6%), (9%), (10%). 52% 48% . . , - 4 , 51% 49% . 2024 25-29 , - , - . ,

2012 . 13.4% 014 ( 13.2%). 11 2% 2012 . 2001 ., - (1.5%). , - 0-14 2012 . 21.6%, 2001 . - 12.3% . 159 240 0 14 , 2011 . 15.5% , 2 - 17.5%. , 0-14 , -. 120 2001-2011 ., 10.3% . 1 172 0.7%. (0-14 ) 13.5% 2001 . 12.3% 2011 . (. . 2013) 0-14

, , . Warehouse , - . , , , - , .. - . - . - , .

5: / -. . 6: ; / . / . . , . 2014 . , :Demographic profiles of Sofia regions Source: National statistical institute, Census 2011

....

7: ()

8:

:, . . 20- XVIII . ., 2010., ., , ., . : : . ., 2005, 11-25., . XVII . . ., 2008., ., , . 2010-2050 . ., 2008., . . ., . , 2, 2009, 1-49., . XV-XIX . , 1972, 3, 48-50., . XIV 40- XX . : , ., 1974, 9-23., . . , .., 2007. , , . . , 2020. ., 2011, . 170., . XV . ., 1972.

, . . ., 2004, 4-6., A. . . ., 2005., . XVII . . ., 1989

, . . ., 1930, . 1878-1939. 2. ., 2005. . , , , , . . ., , 1974., . XV-XVII . , 1980, 1, 17-31.. - : . ., 14.02.2012 . . . 11 : , 10-13-14 /10.02.2012, , . , 2013.. . 3 : , 10-13-14 /10.02.2012, , . 2013.. . 6 : , 10-13-14 /10.02.2012, , . 2013 ., . . . , 2011., . . ., 2013., . . : . ., 2005, 41-56., . . , 2001.

, . . (, , ). : . . ., 2005, 18-97.

, . . 1485-1874 . : . , ., 2005, 194-222.

, . . ., 1999./ . , IASSA ( ), , 1985., . . , 1973, 4, 134-141

, ., , . . . ., 2005, . 44, 5.1.

, . // , . , 2009, .1,, . . : , . 2, 1988, 92-101., ., , . . , . . "". 2000.

, . . : , XXIII, 2010, 95-97.

, . , 1991-1994 . , . ., 2006. ., ., . , . , . , . . . ., 1974

, . XIV XVII . , , 1981

, ., , . . . . ., 2008.

, . . ., 2004., . , , 1995., . ? : , . 4, 19991, 82-91., . . : , . 3, 1992, 78-89., . . : , . 4, 1986, 52-65., ., , , . 1, 1992 ., . 56-71., . . ., 1985., ., , . . ., 1992., . i i, i i. . , 1877., . XV-XIX . ., 1972., . . . ., 2002., . XIX . , 43, 1982, 165-202.

, . , , . , 4, 1983, 85-99.

, ., , . . , 2, 1987.

, . 1880-1980. : . , . 59, 1968, 2, 3-45, . 1960-1990 ., , . 1, 1992 ., . 72-84., . . : , 1, 1990., ., , ., ., , ., , ., , , , . : . ., 2005, 113127, . XVI . , . XVII, 1964, 11-23.

, . . : : . ., 2005, 26-40.

, . XV-XVI . -, 1965, 3, 41-55.

Bogue, D. Priciples of Demography, N.Y., 1969.Bruce, M. Baseline models of sociological phenomena, Journal of Mathematical Sociology, 9: 259-281, 1984.Caldwell, J. Towards a Restatement of Demographic Transition. Theory, Population and Development Review, 2 (3/4): 321-366, September/December, 1976.Carlson, E and M. Bernstan. Population and Resources under the socialist economic system. Population and Development review 16 (Suppllement): 374-407, 1991.Chesnais, J-C. La transition dmographique, Paris, PUF, 1986.Clark, R., N. Ogawa, A. Mason. Population aging, international transfers and macroeconomy, 2011;http://www.canpopsoc.ca/CanPopSoc/assets/File/publications/journal/2011/CSPv38n1-2p207.pdf Coale, A. The Demographic Transition Reconsidered. In: International Population Conference, Liege, 1973, vol. 1, pp. 53-72, Liege, Belgium, IUSSP.Easterlin, R. The American Baby Boom In Historical Perspective, American Economic Review, 51: 869-911, 1968.Easterlin, R. Population, Labor Force, and Long Swings in Economic Growth, New York, National Bureau for Economic Research, 1968.Easterlin, R. Birth and Fortune: the Impact on Births on personal Welfare, 1987, New York: Basic Books.Eaton, J., Mayer, A. Mans Capacity to Reproduce: The Demography of a Unique Population, Glecoe, The Free Press, 1954.Henslin, J. editor. Marriage and Family in a Changing Society. The Free Press, New York, 1992.Jackson, M. Comparing the Balkan Demographic Experience, 1860 to 1970. The Journal of European Economic History, 14, 2, 1985.Grant, J. and others. Low Fertility and Population Ageing. Causes, Consequences and Policy Options. 2004, Santa Monica-Leiden-Cambridge-Berlin.Karpat, K. The Ottoman Demography in the Nineteenth Century: Sources, Concepts, Methods. IN: J.-L. Bacquet-Grammont & Paul Dumont (eds.). Economie te Socits dans lEmpire Ottoman. Paris, 1983. Karpat, K. Ottoman Population. 1830-1914. Demographic and Social Characteristics of Turkish Studies, 4, 1, 1987.Keynes, J. M. (1937) Some Economic Consequences of a Declining Population, Eugenics Review, vol. 29.Keyifiz, N. Applied Mathematical Demography, New York, 1977.Keifitz, L. Demografic theory, McGraw-Hill, New York, 1995.

Klosterman, R. E. Community Analysis and Planning Techniques. Savage, MD: Rowman and Littlefield 1990.

Malthus, Th. An Essay on the Principle of Population. London, 1978.

McCarthy, J. Age, Family, and Migration in Nineteenth-Century Black Sea Provinces of the Ottoman Empire. IJMES, Vol. 10, No. 3. (Aug., 1979), 309-323.

McGowan, B. Economic Life in Ottoman Europe: Taxation, Trade and the Struggle for Land, 1600-1800. Cambridge & New York, 1981.Meadows, D., D. Meadows, J. Randers, W. Behrens III. The Limits to Growth, New York: University Books.Meadows, D., W. Behrens III, D. Meadows, R. Naill, J. Randers, E. Zahn. Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World, Cambridge: Wright-Allen Press, 1974.

Moaanin, N. The Poll-Tax and Population in the Ottoman Balkans. In: Frontiers of Ottoman Studies State, Province, and the West. Ed. by Colin Imber and Keiko Kiyotaki, London-New York, 2005, 77-89.

Mols, R. Introduction la dmographie historique des villes dEurope du XIVe aux XVIIIe sicle. Vol. 1-3, Louvain, 1954-1956.

Murdock, S., Ellis, D. R. Applied Demography: An Introduction to Basic Concepts, Methods, and Data, Westview Press, 1991.

Notestein, F. Population: The Long View. In: Food for the World, ed. T. Schulz, Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 1945.Pressat, R. Demography Analysis, N.Y., 1972 (Lanalyse dmographique, P., 1996).Preston, S. Demogtaphy, 2001.Preston, S. et. Al. Demography Measuring and Modelling Population Processes, Blackwell 2001.Raymond, A. The Population of Aleppo in the Sixteenth and Seventeenth Centuries according to Ottoman Census Documents. IJMES, Vol. 16, No. 4. (Nov., 1984), 447-460.

Resent demographic trends in Europe. Council of Europe, 2001.Roges A. Introduction to Multiregional Mathematical Demography, New York, 1985.Roussel, L. La Famille incertaine, Paris, O. Jacob, 1989.Seshamani, M. The Impact of Ageing on Health Care Expenditure: Impending Crisis or Misguided Concern. London, 2004, Office of Health Economics.Shaw, St. The Ottoman Census System and Population, 1831-1914. IJMES, Vol. 9, No. 3. (Oct., 1978), 325-338Teitelbaum, M. Relevance of Demographic Transition Theory for Developing Countries, Science 188 (4187): 420-425, May 1975.Todorov, N., Velkov, A. Situation dmographique de la peninsula balkanique (fin du XVe-dbut du XVIe sicle). S., 1988.

Todorova, M. Population Structure, Marriage Patterns, Family and Household (According to Ottoman Documentary Material from Northeastern Bulgaria in the 1860s.) tudes balkaniques, 19, 1, 1983.Todorova, M. Was There a Demographic Crisis in the Ottoman Empire in the Seventeenth Century? tudes balkaniques, 2, 1988. Van de Kaa, D. Europes Second Demographic Transition, Population Council, No. 4, 1987.Vallin, J. La population mondiale, La Decouverte Paris, 1989.Willigan, J. D., Lynch, K. Sources and Methods of Historical Demography. New York, 1982Wright, R. The Easterlin Hypothesis and European Fertility Rates, Population and Development Review, 15, 197-122, 1989.Wunsch, G., Tremote, M. Introduction to Demographyc analysis ( , : . , - , 2000 .)

: : BG161PO003-1.1.06-0060-C001 07.12.2012.: