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    1

    ( , , )1

    ( )

    28 2011

    ( 28 2011, , )

    1 .

    . , , , , , , , , . , .

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    3

    ............................................................................................ 54 ( )................................................................ 56

    .............................................................................................................................. 58 .......................................................................................................................................60

    1: 2020 . .........................................................................62

    2: 2025 . .........................................................................62

    3:

    2010 - 2020 .........................................................................................63

    4: :

    2025 . ..............................................................65

    2025 ........................................................................... 651. ......................................................... 65

    1.1. ....................................................................................................................................... 651.2. ( 3 4)................................................................................................................ 66

    2. ......................................................................... 662.1. .............................................................................................................................. 66

    3. ....................................................................................... 673.1. - S............................................................................................................. 673.2. - ENEL........................................................................................................... 673.3. - 2.................................................................................................................... 683.4. -3................................................................................................................................ 684. ................................................................................ 685. , . GT.................................................... 686. ........................................................................................... 69

    7. ................................................................................................................................... 697.1. ............................................................................................................................... 69

    8. , .................................................... 699. .............................................................................................................................. 6910. ............................................................................................................................... 7011. ............................................................................................................................. 70

    5: .. 1000 2008 71

    6: ........................................................................72

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    4

    , ,

    , - , . . 45 .

    2003 - 2005 . , , .- , , .

    2001 2010 . 56 %, .

    1: (2001-2010)

    2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

    ( ) 15,55 17,03 18,37 20,39 23, 25 26, 48 30,77 35, 43 34,93 36,03

    (TWh) 36,83 36,37 37,07 35,72 36,59 37,94 38,6 39,54 37,37 36,53

    :

    , , , .

    - . 2008 . ,

    .

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    5

    1:

    2 , .

    2: 2010 2015 2020 2025

    , TWh 36,45 37,24 37,75 38,10

    , TWh 35,50 37,00 39,30 42,15 , MAX, TWh 36,63 39,11 42,09

    , MIN, TWh 36,25 37,60 36,62

    - 2020 . 39,3 TWh/2020 . , 2025 . , 2020 2030 . , 42,15 TWh/2025 .

    ,

    .

    - - 42,09 TWh / 2020 2

    ,

    . , ,.. 2011 2020 .

    ).

    2 ,

    2020 . 36,62 TWh/2020 ., .. 2010 .

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    , 15 . 20 .

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    5,49 TWh 900 MW 6000 h. . - , 2000 MW 15 TWh . ,

    3

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    2025 .

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    2020 . 2025 .4

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    , 2025 .

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    36% 2009 . 38,4% 2015 ., 40%.5 , ( 50% ) .6

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    ,

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    , . 31.6 , . 32. ,

    , 2015 . .:Milovan Sudovic: Stanje i perspektive razvoja energetike u regionu Jugoistone Evrope, ELEKTROPRIVREDA,

    GODINALXIII, BROJ4, 2010, str. 3763867.:www.EconomyNews.bg 29 2010 .

    8 (). . ,

    , 1990, . 302 ( . . ).

    http://www.economynews.bg/http://www.economynews.bg/http://www.economynews.bg/http://www.economynews.bg/http://www.economynews.bg/
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    Nucleonics Week, September 29, 2005, Nucleonics Week, April 13, 2006

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    2000 ., .

    Eurostat . .

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    1 KW ,

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    14.5 TWh. , , , , . , . 28.6. . - 37.6 . - , .

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    , , -

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    2010 . 28 2011 .

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    , 2002 ., 3- 4- (, , 2009 2010 .).

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    - , , 2005 . , 29 2009 . . , , , ( , .), .

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    , .:http://www.parliament.bg/bg/parliamentarycommittees/members/224/documents .16

    ,

    , .:http://www.aip-bg.org/documents/belene.htm.17

    1991 . , .

    http://www.parliament.bg/bg/parliamentarycommittees/members/224/documentshttp://www.parliament.bg/bg/parliamentarycommittees/members/224/documentshttp://www.parliament.bg/bg/parliamentarycommittees/members/224/documentshttp://www.aip-bg.org/documents/belene.htmhttp://www.aip-bg.org/documents/belene.htmhttp://www.aip-bg.org/documents/belene.htmhttp://www.aip-bg.org/documents/belene.htmhttp://www.aip-bg.org/documents/belene.htmhttp://www.aip-bg.org/documents/belene.htmhttp://www.parliament.bg/bg/parliamentarycommittees/members/224/documents
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    , - . , , HSBC. , 2004 ., , , , , - .

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    1: 18

    . , .

    Overnight cost e , , , . - ( ) KW. .. ,

    . - , , , :

    2003 2005 . $ 1 250 (892,9) kW $2 500 (1785,7)/kW19

    2007 2008 . $2300( 1 642,9)/kW $6000 (4285,7/kW, - $1400 (1 000)/kW() $4500( 3 214,3)/kW()

    ;

    20

    2009 . - $4500( 3 214,3)//kW $10500 (7 500)/kW);

    21

    18

    Mark Cooper, The economics of nuclear reactors: Renaissance or Relapse, June 2009.

    .

    19

    NuclearTechnologyReview2009. 27 2011 .: $1,4 = 1.20

    Nucleonicsweek, February22, 2007.21

    TheGlobalNuclear Fuel Market Supply and Demand 2009, September 2009.

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    ,

    - , , , ;

    , , 6-8 . , 2004 2007 .

    69,2% , - 60,3%, - 19,6%, - 11,6%, - 25 35%22. . Olkiluoto 3 2003 . 3 2008 . 4,5 23, 2009 .

    5,3 24

    . . 4

    , 10 % 5 , 1 .

    ;

    Overnight cost .. All-in Cost, ( )

    .. Direct cost ( Bus bar cost), , , 1 :

    (, , , , - , ,, .);

    . 1000 MW 150 200 , ;

    ( , ,, .), , , .;

    .Bus bar cost $c/kWh Euroc/kWh.

    Overnight cost, Overnight cost $1000 ( 714,3) Busbar cost 1,8 2,4 $/kWh ( 1,29 1,71), 2,4 $ ( 1,71)/kWh25 3,0 ( 2,14) $/kWh26

    22

    Nucleonics week January 24, 2008.

    . 2003 2009 . Overnight cost $2000 (

    23

    Nucleonics week December 25, 2008.24Nucleonics week September 3, 2009.

    25: MIT.

    26 .

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    2: /

    2004 . ( .. )

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    . , , .. . - . 2020 2025 .

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    50- . 29

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    2011 . 442 375 GW30

    28 , , .

    .

    29IAEA, International Conference on Opportunities and Challenges for Water Cooled Reactors in the 21st

    Century, 27-30 October 2009, Vienna, Austria

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    - - 361 (82 % ), 920 MW 332,2 GW. 47 (10,6 % ), 490 MW - 23 GW (6,6%). - 18 - 15. , .

    : (104), (58), (54), (32), (21) (19). 2011 . 14400 -31

    (2010) 74,1 %, (2010) 29,2%, (2009) 20,2 %, (2009) 17,8 %, - - 2 %.

    .

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    . / . , MW

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    2003 2 / 1625 6 / 988

    18 / 13746 25 / 8467

    1990 . 2004 . 1900 TWh 2600 TWh. 36 % 7 % -

    30IAEA http://www.iaea.or.at/programmes/a2/

    31WNA http://www.world-nuclear.org/

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    4:

    , :

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    . . , .

    : 50 %, 50 . 150 -200 34

    34

    Nucleonics week, February 22, 2007

    ( ).

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    : . , .

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    (): (/ ) . , . 4 - .

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    2009 . .

    5:

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    2009 . , 2030 . 509 GW.

    2009 . 2030 ., 810 GW 510 GW.

    2009 .35

    , 2030 . 500 GW . , , 11 2011 . . , .

    , 2030 . 580 600 GW. 812 818 GW, 240 .

    7879 . . 67 . , 10-11 . .

    2009 . 50 772 , 2010 . - 55 . 36

    2009 . 76 % . .. , ( 13 % ), . ,

    , . 2014 2016 .,

    .

    .

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    35 The Global Nuclear Fuel Market Supply and Demand 2009, September 2009

    36WNAhttp://www.world-nuclear.org/info/uprod.html

    http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/uprod.htmlhttp://www.world-nuclear.org/info/uprod.htmlhttp://www.world-nuclear.org/info/uprod.htmlhttp://www.world-nuclear.org/info/uprod.htmlhttp://www.world-nuclear.org/info/uprod.htmlhttp://www.world-nuclear.org/info/uprod.html
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    2004 . (spotprice) $20/,

    . 2007 . $300/ 2010 . $100/

    37

    1987 2006 Ux U3O8 Prices

    . 2010 2011 $100/.

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    37http://www.uxc.com/review/uxc_Prices.aspx

    38OECD/NEA and IAEA, Uranium 2007: Resources, Production and Demand, Paris (2008).

    http://www.uxc.com/review/uxc_Prices.aspxhttp://www.uxc.com/review/uxc_Prices.aspxhttp://www.uxc.com/review/uxc_Prices.aspxhttp://www.uxc.com/review/uxc_Prices.aspxhttp://www.uxc.com/review/uxc_Prices.aspxhttp://www.uxc.com/review/uxc_Prices.aspxhttp://www.uxc.com/review/uxc_Prices.aspxhttp://www.uxc.com/review/uxc_Prices.aspx
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    , 11 . .

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    39WNA,http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf04.html .

    40TRENDS IN THE NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE:ECONOMIC, ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL ASPECTS, NEA 2001NEA 2001

    41WNA, High cost for US radwaste alternatives.

    http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf04.htmlhttp://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf04.htmlhttp://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf04.htmlhttp://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf04.htmlhttp://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf04.htmlhttp://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf04.html
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    , 110 . 40 . , , 10 - (MOX) . 2007 .

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    .

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    2001 2010 . 56 %, .

    42WNA, UK government eyes MOX use.

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    4: (2001-2010)43

    2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

    ( ) 15,55 17,03 18,37 20,39 23, 25 26, 48 30,77 35, 43 34,93 36,03

    (TWh) 36,83 36,37 37,07 35,72 36,59 37,94 38,6 39,54 37,37 36,53

    :

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    5: () , TWh ( )

    / TWh

    2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2015 2020 2025

    10,05 9,16 9,20 9,70 9,84 10,10 10,20 10,86 8,43 8,30 9,10 9,45 9,57 5,15 5,64 6,00 5,63 6,19 6,93 7,07 7,783 7,68 7,21 7,26 7,31 7,38 0,44 0,45 0,44 0,42 0,41 0,40 0,37 0,35 0,44 7,21 7,26 7,31 7,38

    0,16 0,16 0,18 0,15 0,19 0,20 0,21 0,28 0,24 0,20 0,21 0,21 0,22

    9,75 9,30 9,30 8,80 9,10 9,30 9,38 10,25 10,31 9,40 9,40 9,40 9,45

    25,55 24,71 25,12 24,70 25,73 26,93 27,23 29,47 27,10 25,50 26,37 26,78 27,04

    11,28 11,66 11,73 10,82 10,71 10,84 10,95 10,07 10,27 10,99 10,94 10,98 11,04

    36,83 36,37 36,85 35,52 36,44 37,77 38,18 39,54 37,37 36,49 37,31 37,76 38,08

    . .

    6:

    2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

    % 44,1 47,2 46,7 43,8 41,6 40,3 40,2 34,1 37,9

    - . , - .

    , 89 % - . , 2020 . . . . 2008 . 5,65 - 6,29 - .

    , , :

    ; ,

    ;

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    11 , .

    745

    : 2010 2015 2020 2025

    , TWh 36,45 37,24 37,75 38,10

    , TWh 35,50 37,00 39,30 42,15

    , MAX, TWh 36,63 39,11 42,09

    , MIN, TWh 36,25 37,60 36,62

    - 2020 . 39,3 TWh/2020 . , 2025 . , 2020 2030 . , 42,15 TWh/2025 . ,

    .

    - - 42,09 TWh / 2020 . 46

    ,

    . , ,.. 2011 2020 .

    .

    , 15 . 20 .

    , ,

    ,

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    47

    45

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    46 2020 .

    36,62 TWh/2020 ., .. 2010 . 47

    . 1 2. - 2 - 3 ENEL , , 3 4 -3, 4.3 (MAX1) 2020 .

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    7:

    2005-2010 . TWh; 4000 MW ("" + "")

    , 2005 - 2010 . , TWh. , , , . , . , .

    . 1000MW , , , , - . , , , .

    . , , , . ( , .)

    , 1000 MW , . , 2025 2030 . 1000 MW

    .

    , , .

    2015 ., 2012 . 2015 . (

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    ). , 2015 . 36% 2009 . 38,4% 2015 ., 40%.49 , ( 50% )

    .

    50

    1200 , 8,25 15- 12,35 . .

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    2006 . (

    3 4 ) 5000 GWh .

    , , . (18% ), . - 2018-2019 .

    52 2008

    .

    .53

    , , , , , ,

    , , . , . 30% . , , ,

    54

    ,

    .

    49 , 2015 . , 2004.

    , . 31.50

    , . 32. , , 2015 . .:Milovan Sudovic: Stanje i perspektive razvoja energetike u regionu Jugoistone Evrope, ELEKTROPRIVREDA,GODINALXIII, BROJ4, 2010, str. 37638651

    .:www.EconomyNews.bg 29 2010 .52

    . (). . . , , 2009, . 71.53

    .54

    .

    http://www.economynews.bg/http://www.economynews.bg/http://www.economynews.bg/http://www.economynews.bg/http://www.economynews.bg/
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    1.

    , 70- . , (150 ). .

    , 4- 1977 . 1400 . . ( 10,5 ) , 120 , .

    7,2 7,6 MSK-64. , . 500-/06.11.1984 .55

    1990 .

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    56

    1990 . , . 2006 . . , , -

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    55

    SeismicrisksintheBeleneNuclearProject, P. Kovachev, J. Havercamp, 12.02.2008

    : , . , . . , , . . ,

    56

    (). , , , 1990.57

    :http://www.nek.bg/cgi-bin/index.cgi?l=1&d=74658

    01.05.2009 . , http://www.focus-news.net/?id=f11861

    http://www.nek.bg/cgi-bin/index.cgi?l=1&d=746http://www.nek.bg/cgi-bin/index.cgi?l=1&d=746http://www.nek.bg/cgi-bin/index.cgi?l=1&d=746http://www.nek.bg/cgi-bin/index.cgi?l=1&d=746http://www.nek.bg/cgi-bin/index.cgi?l=1&d=746http://www.nek.bg/cgi-bin/index.cgi?l=1&d=746http://www.nek.bg/cgi-bin/index.cgi?l=1&d=746http://www.focus-news.net/?id=f11861http://www.focus-news.net/?id=f11861http://www.focus-news.net/?id=f11861http://www.focus-news.net/?id=f11861http://www.focus-news.net/?id=f11861http://www.focus-news.net/?id=f11861http://www.nek.bg/cgi-bin/index.cgi?l=1&d=746
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    - .

    59European Seismological Commission

    http://wija.ija.csic.es/gt/earthquakes/imatges/ESC-SESAME_poster_A4_75q.jpg60

    - , , 2004

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    , .

    2007 . . - - - . ,

    . . 2009 . - . .

    11 2011 . 11 . -1 55 . , , . . , . , 1 - 4. , , 10% . . . , . - 1986 . 20 2011 . 5 7- INES,

    6.

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    , AES-92. -1000 -1200/MIR-1200, .

    ,

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    2 . - Kudankulam - .

    AES-92 , .

    61

    AES-92 .

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    2009 ., . 2011 . 62

    , , 2010 . " , , ", .

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    Tianwan . 700 ,

    61.: IAEA-TECDOC-1391 Status of advanced light water reactor designs 2004

    6216.02.2011 .

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    41

    .63

    Bushehr . 2011 . ,

    . ,

    , .

    64

    , . . (Olkiluoto 3) , . . RWE Power .

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    66

    5- , ..

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    63

    Nucleonics Week, September 29, 2005, Nucleonics Week, April 13, 200664WNA, Nuclear power in Iran, updated 04.03.2011

    6521.12.2009 . , -

    6603.12.2008 . , 300 2009 .

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    - ( ) 67

    , .

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    4.

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    , . . 2006 . , . . 22 , ... .

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    4.3. ()

    , . , , ( ) , 10-15 % . , , . - ,

    6712.10.2009 . http://www.mediapool.bg/show/?storyid=157306

    http://www.mediapool.bg/show/?storyid=157306http://www.mediapool.bg/show/?storyid=157306http://www.mediapool.bg/show/?storyid=157306http://www.mediapool.bg/show/?storyid=157306
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    . .

    .

    , .... 68

    1995 .

    .

    .69.

    1999 . , 15% . 2005 . , 6- 5,2 70. , . . , 1- 78 71

    2010 . 1,050 . 2005 . 5,2 ( ) 10 - .

    .

    72

    5,2 6- - , ;

    . :

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    68 , 21.10.2005, 40- , 40-

    69

    70 , 2005 ., . 40

    71

    , 17.07.2009 ., http://www.mediapool.bg/show/?storyid=15454472Comparison of Different Decommissioning Fund Methodologies for Nuclear Installations, Country Report

    Bulgaria, 2007,http://www.wupperinst.org/en/projects/proj/index.html?&projekt_id=167&bid=43&searchart=projekt_uebersicht

    http://www.wupperinst.org/en/projects/proj/index.html?projekt_id=167&mzAdd=167&cType=3&pid=&searchart=projekt_uebersicht%29http://www.wupperinst.org/en/projects/proj/index.html?projekt_id=167&mzAdd=167&cType=3&pid=&searchart=projekt_uebersicht%29http://www.wupperinst.org/en/projects/proj/index.html?projekt_id=167&mzAdd=167&cType=3&pid=&searchart=projekt_uebersicht%29http://www.wupperinst.org/en/projects/proj/index.html?&projekt_http://www.wupperinst.org/en/projects/proj/index.html?&projekt_http://www.wupperinst.org/en/projects/proj/index.html?&projekt_http://www.wupperinst.org/en/projects/proj/index.html?&projekt_http://www.wupperinst.org/en/projects/proj/index.html?&projekt_http://www.wupperinst.org/en/projects/proj/index.html?&projekt_http://www.wupperinst.org/en/projects/proj/index.html?&projekt_http://www.wupperinst.org/en/projects/proj/index.html?projekt_id=167&mzAdd=167&cType=3&pid=&searchart=projekt_uebersicht%29
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    360 . 2003 ., .

    , 1963 . . . 570 73

    1988 .

    . 2004 .

    1,5 , .

    1997 . , 360 ( ).

    :

    : , 2,5 ;

    : 5 160 1,2 74

    : 2005 . 700 , .

    .

    : 600 , 2010 . ;

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    96 ( 49 ). .

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    . 15-20 , .75

    73

    WNA, Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage, November 2009http://www.world-nuclear.org74World Nuclear Association

    75 Barry Buzan, Ole Wver, and Jaap de Wilde, Security: A New Framework for Analysis, Boulder

    CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers 1998.)

    http://www.world-nuclear.org/http://www.world-nuclear.org/http://www.world-nuclear.org/http://www.world-nuclear.org/http://www.world-nuclear.org/http://www.world-nuclear.org/
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    , , , . .

    , . , .

    76

    . , , .

    , .

    - 2001 , .

    . , , 2002, 2003, 2005,2006 ., 2009 .

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    , . . . , , 1/3 . .

    . , 5%

    76Barton, Barry, et al.Energy security: managing risk in adynamic and regulatory environment. Oxford: Oxford

    University Press, 2004.

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    , ( Centre for Strategicand International Studies 7%). , .

    .

    . . , . , , . . , .

    , -

    , .

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    , , . , .77

    2.

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    . , 2010 50% . -, 60-65%. , . .

    77Operational Programmeof the Council for 2005 submitted by the Incoming Luxembourg and United Kingdom

    Presidencies [online], Brussels, December 2004 [cit. 2007-04-29]. Accessible at WWW:http://www.fco.gov.uk/Files/kfile/UK-Lux%20prog.pdf.

    http://www.fco.gov.uk/Files/kfile/UK-Lux%20prog.pdfhttp://www.fco.gov.uk/Files/kfile/UK-Lux%20prog.pdfhttp://www.fco.gov.uk/Files/kfile/UK-Lux%20prog.pdfhttp://www.fco.gov.uk/Files/kfile/UK-Lux%20prog.pdfhttp://www.fco.gov.uk/Files/kfile/UK-Lux%20prog.pdf
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    , ( ),

    , .

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    20-20-20, 2020 20% 20% .

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    , , . , , , , , . , 90% ( ).

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    Westinghouse , . , .

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    , . 50% (.. ) 70% (.. ). , 71% .78

    ,

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    , , . , ( ) , 1 . 620 . , .

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    , , , , , ,

    , , .

    , .

    - 80% ;

    - 76,7% , ;

    - 71,4% ( );

    - , , ( 15 ) ;

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    0,75

    (50% )

    600

    0,35. ,

    ,

    (620 MW )

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    ()

    .

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    , , . ( , - .)

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    , .

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    . 4,2 .

    KWh .

    , , . .

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    8%.

    8 6 1KWh. 1,2 9 1KWh.

    9.54 1KWh . 8%, .

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    : .

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    ( )

    9:

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    1 KWh

    : .

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    10: ( ) 1KWh ,

    .

    : .

    1 KWh .

    8% 9,54 1 KWh.

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    11: ( ) 1KWh ,

    : .

    6% 8.46 1 KWh.

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    ,

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    ( )

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    7% -7 016,8 -4 381,8 -1 746,8 888,3 3 523,3 6 158,3 8 793,3

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    9% -8 821,3 -6 824,9 -4 828,5 -2 832,0 -835,6 1 160,9 3 157,3

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    : .

    11: KWh ( )

    ( ) .

    \ 0,06 0,07 0,08 0,09 0,10 0,11 0,12

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    6% -2 303,9 -1 396,3 -448,9 539,7 1 567,6 2 605,1 3 642,5

    7% -2 831,3 -2 131,2 -1 394,8 -619,5 194,1 1 017,1 1 840,1

    8% -3 206,4 -2 660,5 -2 081,5 -1 465,7 -812,6 -150,1 512,3

    9% -3 475,5 -3 045,5 -2 585,3 -2 090,3 -1 558,8 -1 018,2 -477,5

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    : .

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    . 45, . 2 , .

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    , ,

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    , ,

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    3:

    2010 - 2020 .81

    )

    . (MAX) (MIN). - 2020 . 42,09 TWh, 36,6 TWh. 2025 . .

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    81) .

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    ,

    .

    2 2000 MW.

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    . 4.2 (MAX2) , - 2020 ., , -.

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    2020 .:

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    . 4.3 (MAX2) , 2020 . , 4,74 TWh/2020 .

    , ,

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    4: :

    2025 .

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    ), .

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    , , ( 50 100 % N n ), - , , ().

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    ; .

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    5: .. 1000

    2008

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    6:

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    . 1979 25 , ,

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    83

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    2004 .: - 86. - e . - ParsonsEurope -87

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    88

    . - No260 2000 MW89. - ,

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    ( ). - 49 % , .

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    20.12.2004 . http://www.mediapool.bg/show/?storyid=3169588

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    - http://www.NEC.bg/cgi-bin/index.cgi?l=2&d=124192

    - http://www.NEC.bg/tender/InfoRequest-ENG.doc93

    23.10.2008 . http://www.mediapool.bg/show/?storyid=145007 94

    24.09.2009, - 95

    19.02.2009 . http://www.mediapool.bg/show/?storyid=149225 96

    23.10.2009 . http://www.mediapool.bg/show/?storyid=157775 9728.10.2009 . http://www.mediapool.bg/show/?storyid=157966 98

    22.01.2010 . http://www.mediapool.bg/show/?storyid=161033

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  • 8/6/2019 NPS Belene Assesment WTD

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  • 8/6/2019 NPS Belene Assesment WTD

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