ocean variability to ecosystem links in the northern california current
DESCRIPTION
Ocean variability to ecosystem links in the Northern California Current. The PDO and salmon survival correlate in the NCC. Slide: W.T. Peterson. Copepod species composition shifts seasonally with interannual anomalies:. Hooff and Peterson 2006. Oregon “Copepod Community Index” = CCI - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Ocean variability to ecosystemlinks in the Northern California Current
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
PD
O
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Coho Salmon
YEAR1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Per
cent
Sur
viva
l
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
PDO
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
Am
omal
y of
N
o. o
f adu
lts (t
hous
ands
) re
turn
ing
to s
paw
n
Spring Chinook Salmonmean = 108,000
The PDO and salmon survival correlate
in the NCC
Slide: W.T. Peterson
Copepod species composition shifts seasonally with interannual anomalies:
Hooff and Peterson 2006
-2
-1
0
1
2
CCI s
core
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 20081996
PC1
of co
pepo
ds
CCI Timeseries
Oregon “Copepod Community Index” = CCIOrdination Axis 1 scores
-2
-1
0
1
2
CCI s
core
Warm Cold Warm Cold
Monthly anomalies
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 20081996
PDO:CCI correlation R = 0.5, p<0.01
Calanus
Warm yearsCold years
Copepod Community relates to salmon survival:
Vancouver Island
Central Oregon
Central California
Southern California
Anomalies in zooplankton species groups show coherence along the Pacific US coast:
Synchrony among North East Pacific time series(Mackas and Beaugrand 2010)
CalCOFI stratification from McGowan et al. 2003BC/OR (British Columbia/Oregon) from Mackas et al. 2004CA (California) from Rebstock (2002) and Lavaniegos & Ohman (2003)Kuroshio region (KUR) from Nakata & Hidaka (2003)KOR (Korean coastal water) from Rebstock & Kang (2003
Arrows indicate timing of major shifts within each region
170 160 150 140 130 120 11025
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
170 160 150 140 130 120 11025
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65PDO - Cold Phase PDO - Warm Phase
Climate-Forcing Hypothesis: Basin-scale circulation links the PDO to local ecosystem change.
Strub, modification of Chelton and Davis, 1982
Basin-scale control of ecosystems?
E. Di LorenzoJ. KeisterA. ThomasPT StrubWT PetersonS. BogradP. FranksF. SchwingK. ChaakA. Bracco
International collaborators: Japanese: (Chiba, Sasai, Sagaki, Tagushi, Ishidi, Nonaha), Chilean: (Escribano, Hormazabal, Pizarro, Rutllait, Montecino); Canadian (Mackas, Foreman, Pena, Crawford)
The test of the transport hypothesisCompare modeled transport to zoop. observations
Nested ROMS model http://www.myroms.org/)• 10 km resolution• 30 vertical layers• boundary conditions from World Ocean Atlas
climatology• nudged at open boundaries• forced by NCEP winds and SST• 1950-2008
Passive tracers released continuously along the 4 regional domain boundaries (NORTH, SOUTH, EAST, WEST) with 12-month decay scales.
Time series integrated over 1x2 degree region centered on zooplankton observations.
Passive tracers capture the seasonality in advection:
Winter Spring Summer Fall
East
West
South
North
particle concentration
FromEAST
FromSOUTH
FromNORTH
FromWEST
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
-2-10123
-3-2-1012
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-10123
Model hindcast CCI =
NORTH tracer +
SOUTH tracer+
EAST tracer+
WEST tracer+ ε
Passive Tracer Time Series
Keister et al. 2011
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
R = 0.36
Model hindcast CCIObserved CCI
(5 year lowpass)
R = 0.95
Model hindcast CCIObserved CCI
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
(5 yearlowpass)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
R = 0.9
Model hindcast CCIModel PDO
Keister et al. 2011
Advective control of zooplankton communities?
1. Diapause transport in the CCS
Data re-analysis
• Divided Northeast Pacific into 6 ‘natural’ regions
• Investigated patterns of retention and export between these regions
California Coast
Northern California Coast
Oregon Coast
Washington Coast
British Columbia Coast
Gulf of Alaska
1. Diapause transport in the CCS
Seed Latitude
Diap
ause
Em
erge
nce
Latit
ude
Connectivity Plot for All Diapausing Copepods, 1996-2007
1. Diapause transport in the CCS
Seed Latitude
Diap
ause
Em
erge
nce
Latit
ude
Connectivity Plot for Particles left year round at 10m depth, 1996-2007