Basic Environmental Studies: Start-Up Seminar 2, No. 3, 6 November 2009

地球システムモデル：その概要Earth System Model: A Sketch

Hiroshi Kanzawahttp://cloud.hyarc.nagoya-u.ac.jp/index-jis.html

kanzawa@nagoya-u.jp

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IPCC (2007)2

More complex Climate Models

Earth SystemModels

1990

2001

1995

2007

IPCC (2007)3

Earth System Models (ESMs)Unable to perform control experiments on the planet Earth as a whole

↓Numerical experiments using ESMs representing the real Earth system

Note: ESM = Earth in a computer = numerical model that integrates some governing equations based on physical and chemical laws controlling the earth system

・19th – early 20th century:

・0-dimensional simple models: Temperature change with doubling carbon dioxide

・1960’s:

・ 1-dimensional (height) radiative-convective equilibrium model: Temperature change with doubling carbon dioxide, etc. Manabe and Wetherald (1967)

・1-dimensional (latitude) energy balance model: ice-albedo feedback, etc. Budyko (1969); Sellers (1969)

・afterwards

・3-dimensional general circulation model (GCM): calculating temperature, winds or currents, precipitaion, cloud amounts, radiation, etc. of the atmosphere and/or ocean at each grid point of the model・3-dimensional Earth System Model (ESM)

4

Higher resolution of GCM-type climate models

1990

1995

2001

2007

IPCC (2007)5

Earth System Models (ESMs)Complex - Medium - Simple

EvolvingConceptual

ModelsObservations

Hoskins (1983) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. with minor corrections

Optimum Situation for Understanding

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Hierarchy of Earth System ModelsComplex – Medium - Simple

- Processes

Climate (Atmosphere, Ocean, Land)

Carbon cycle

Atmospheric chemistry

Ice dynamics

- Spatial Dimensions0-dimensional

1-dimensional (e.g., latitude or height)

2-dimensional (e.g., latitude - height)

3-dimensi0nal (longitude - latitude - height) 7

Purpose: Glacial-Interglacial Transition(several 100 k years)

- Processes

Climate (Atmosphere, Ocean, Land)

Carbon cycle

Atmospheric chemistry

Ice dynamics

- Spatial Dimensions0-dimensional

1-dimensional (e.g., latitude or height)

2-dimensional (e.g., latitude - height)

3-dimensi0nal (longitude - latitude - height)8

渡邊誠一郎・檜山哲哉・安成哲三, 編 (2008): 新しい地球学：太陽-地球-生命圏相互作用系の変動学

21COE product

Climate – Ice dynamics

1-D energy balance model

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渡邊誠一郎・檜山哲哉・安成哲三, 編(2008)

Climate – Ice dynamics– Carbon cycle

10

Purpose: Climate Change (several 100 years)

- Processes

Climate (Atmosphere, Ocean, Land)

Carbon cycle

Atmospheric chemistry

Ice dynamics

- Spatial Dimensions0-dimensional

1-dimensional (e.g., latitude or height)

2-dimensional (e.g., latitude - height)

3-dimensional (longitude - latitude - height)

Global warming problem in mind

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Why such complex models ?Environmental problems of global warmingAnthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs)

and aerosols (or aerosol precursor gases)

Increase in GHGs & aerosols in the atmosphere

Climate change (global & local)

Impact（影響）(global & local)

Adaptation （適応）or Mitigation（緩和）(global & local)12

診断と治療または医学と環境学の事Diagnosis & Treatment

Medical Science & Environmental Studies方法の問題または『皮膚科学講義』の事

『皮膚科学講義』（1941年）は、東京大学医学部の皮膚科の教授、太田正雄（1885-1945年）の講義録で、ガリ版で印刷し、学生に頒布されたものである。・・・・・・・・・ たとえば、次のような言葉がある。

「皮膚病の分類し難きは前に述べたが、今の處主として原因的基礎に立ち、その及ばざるものをば他の標準で補ひ、全体として便利であるやうな分類を以て我慢して置くより他にない」 ・・・・・・・・・

歴史的にみれば、分類の原理は、「病因学的」な方向へ向って進む。しかし現在の段階では、「他の標準」にも頼らざるをえない。 「他の標準」とは、一般

的に形態学、殊に組織学（顕微鏡的形態学）である。そこで本来性質の異る原因学的および形態学的な標準の適用範囲のつり合いという問題が生じ、その答えが「全体として便利」ということになるだろう。何のために便利なのか。 ・・・・・・・・・

簡単にいえば、医者の話だから、診断および治療の目的のために「便利」だということである。 ・・・・・・・・・

非専門の専門家：Shuichi KATO 加藤周一「言葉と人間」（1977）13

Mission-oriented

Curiosity-driven

最も役に立つ研究 ＝ 最も基礎的な研究 ？

Challenges：やりがいのある課題

真鍋淑郎・神沢博 (2009): 科学的好奇心の先にあるもの. エコラボトーク (対談), 環 KWAN, Vol. 17

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IPCC (2007)

Climate&

Atmospheric chemistry

15

Global-average radiative forcing estimates and rangesThe present (2005) minus the preindustrial era (1750)

IPCC (2007)16

‘MIROC’Climate Model

（Atm/Ocn GCM）

‘MATSIRO’Land Surf. Model（Vegetation/Soil）

‘SPRINTARS’Aerosol Model

（Sulfate, Carbons, Dust, Salt）

Radiation(Direct)

Cloud, Rain（Indirect）

Transport

‘ISORROPIA’Aerosol Thermodynamics（Nitrates-Sulfate-Ammonium）

‘CHASER’Atm.-Chem. Model

・O3-CH4-NOx-CO・VOC s・SOx

1. Land use change（cultivation）

①VOCsEmissions

②SOA formation

HNO3・SO4・NH4(+)・OH・O3

③Nitrates

2.Anthropogenic（Industry） Pollutant Emissions

NOx,CO,VOCs

・Soil Dust・BC/OC(POA)

GHGs

Heat, evap, radiat

Transport

Rain, Radiation

Chemistry-Aerosol-Coupled Climate Model(in CCSR/NIES/FRCGC GCM)

Sudo 17

Sudo HP 18

3-dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM): Earth in a computer

CCSR homepage

climate system

higher resolution

grid point division

basic equation

19

.......)()(

........)(

)()()(

,

...),(........)(

0

........)(

........)(

31332123

3333

3

nnTkLnnnTkP

LPvny

nt

wnz

vny

unx

nt

nNMTRp

nRadvTy

Tt

gz

py

pfuvvy

vt

xpfvvu

yu

t

av

a

==

−+∂∂

−=∂∂

∂∂

−∂∂

−∂∂

−=∂∂

==

∂∂

−=∂∂

−∂∂

−=

∂∂

−−∂∂

−=∂∂

∂∂

−+∂∂

−=∂∂

ρρ

ρ

ρ

ρ

constratereactionklossproductionozoneLP

moleculeoxygenofdensitynumbernatomoxygenofdensitynumbern

ozoneofdensitynumbernairofdensitynumbern

numbersAvogadroNairofweightmolecularM

airforconstgasRgravitygheatingradiativeRad

etemperaturTdensitypressurep

parametCoriolisfvelocityupwardwvelocitynorthwardeastwardvuupwardnorthwardeastwardzyx

av

a

:&:,

::::

'::

:::

:::

::&:,

,,:,,

33

2

1

3

ρ

20

※純酸素反応Sydney Chapman (1930)

オゾン層生成の本質

23

23

32

2

2)330200(

:)240(

OOOOOnmnmhO

bodythirdtheMMOMOOOOnmhO

→++→<<+

+→+++→<+

λ

λ

ν

νProduction

Loss

※その他の反応のごく一例

.......)()(

........)(

31332123

3333

nnTkLnnnTkP

LPvny

nt

==

−+∂∂

−=∂∂

�OOHOHO

OHOOOH

232

223

2+→++→+

21�ONOONOONOONO

22

223

+→++→+

Ozone:O3mixing ratio (ppb)

n3 / n

Observation&

Model

Sudo HP

heig

ht

22

IPCC (2007)

NO2Observation Models

23

Future Simulation of O3/ CH4/ Aerosols

Temporal Evolution : Global Mean Methane CH4 (ppmv) and SO4

Climate change: Faster destruction of CH4

Climate change: Faster oxidation of SO2 (increased H2O2,etc)

Strato. O3 recovery

no climate change

Sudo24

IPCC (2007)25

Aerosol optical depth

Observation

White: No dataNo retrievals of MODISover highly reflective surfaces

IPCC (2007) 26

Hypothetical removal from the atmosphere of the entire burden of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol particles

No aerosols (2071-2100) – the present (1961-1990)

Before 2000: GHGs & Aerosols = ObservationAfter 2000: GHGs = const

Aerosols = constAerosols = zero

TOA

OTEdtdA

++=

A

ET

O

Carbon Cycle(Beyond the scope of this talk)

IPCC (200727

END

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