olanda engleza

8/13/2019 Olanda engleza

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The situation in 2004According to the most recent data, real GDP fell by 0.9% in 2003, the first time that overalleconomic activity contracted since 19 2. !o"ever, economic activity recovered in the secondhalf of the year. #his recovery contin$ed into 200 and available data and indicators sho" asteady, albeit grad$al, im&rovement in $nderlying economic conditions. 'ncreasingly, the

D$tch economy benefited from booming international trade. At the same time, domesticdemand remained lac(l$stre, as &rivate cons$m&tion "as held bac( by "ea( ho$seholddis&osable income and lo" confidence, fiscal &olicy "as tightened, and investment ad)$stedto lo" &rofitability d$ring the do"nt$rn. #he labo$r mar(et deteriorated in a lagged res&onseto the do"nt$rn, b$t the decline in em&loyment "as more moderate in the second *$arter,"hile over the s$mmer the seasonally ad)$sted $nem&loyment rate even fell slightly.+ons$mer &rice inflation decreased mar(edly in the first nine months of the year, to 1.0% ine&tember, the lo"est rate since -$ne 19 9, reflecting "ea( economic activity, lo" im&ort

&rices, and the effect of the agreement among social &artners to moderate "age increases.

Sluggish recovery in domestic demand

conomic activity is forecast to f$rther im&rove over the &ro)ection &eriod, albeit onlygrad$ally. #his mainly reflects the sl$ggish &erformance of domestic demand, &rimarily

&rivate cons$m&tion. A recovery in &rivate cons$m&tion a&&ears to be held bac( not only by"ea( dis&osable income, b$t also by lo" confidence among cons$mers. #his seems to reflectinter alia the $ncertainty among cons$mers concerning the conse*$ences of the restr$ct$ringof the social sec$rity and &ension systems, as "ell as increasing tensions bet"een thegovernment and social &artners. 'n 200/, &rivate cons$m&tion gro"th is e &ected to reach0.9%, com&ared to 0./% in 200 . +ons$m&tion is e &ected to gro" modestly in 200/, in s&iteof "ea( real dis&osable income d$e to the moderate rise in com&ensation, f$rther increases in

&ension &remi$ms, the im&act of higher oil &rices, and fiscal tightening as the ho$seholdsavings ratio decreases some"hat. Private cons$m&tion gro"th "ill be barely more than 1%in 200 , b$t this is largely d$e to the mechanical im&act of the reform in the healthcaresystem that "ill ta(e &lace in that year.3 #he reform sho$ld im&ly a shift in the recordede &endit$re from &rivate cons$m&tion to &$blic e &endit$re on health care. 4hile fiscalrestraint sho$ld hold bac( government cons$m&tion and &$blic investment, &rivate investmentis e &ected to accelerate in res&onse to an im&rovement in &rofitability and im&rovingdemand conditions. #he relatively lo" ca&acity $tilisation in the near term "o$ld, ho"ever,militate against a shar& rise in the investment ratio. 'n contrast to the relatively sl$ggishrecovery in domestic demand, the contrib$tion from net e &orts sho$ld remain b$oyant, asD$tch e &orters benefit from the strength of "orld demand and an im&rovement incom&etitiveness. Des&ite high oil &rices, inflation sho$ld remain relatively s$bd$ed and &ic($& only slightly in 200 . #his relatively benign inflation develo&ment res$lts from the im&actof moderate "age increases, a cyclical &ic(5$& in &rod$ctivity gro"th, and "ea( im&ort

&rices. #he labo$r mar(et "ill still deteriorate in 200/, "ith the $nem&loyment rate &ea(ing at/.0%. !o"ever, as em&loyment gro"th is e &ected to reach 1.2% in 200 , $nem&loyment isforecast to fall slightly in that year.Deficit to fall in response to economic recovery and fiscal tighteningAnn$al national acco$nts confirmed a general government deficit of 3.2% of GDP in 2003, anincrease of 1.3% of GDP com&ared to the &revio$s year. #his mar(ed deterioration occ$rreddes&ite s$bstantial fiscal tightening. 't sho"s the sensitivity of D$ch &$blic finances to thedee& and &rotracted economic slo"do"n. !o"ever, other factors, incl$ding the rise in ta 5e em&t &ension &remi$ms, ta 5ded$ctible interest &ayments on mortgages, and a

larger5than5e &ected rise in the deficit of the s$bsector local government also &layed a role inthe "idening of the deficit. 'n order to stem the "orsening of the &$blic acco$nts, the


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a$thorities im&lemented a s$&&lementary &ac(age of savings e*$ivalent to 0. % of GDP inA&ril 200 6 aro$nd half of these meas$res "ere of a one5off nat$re. As a conse*$ence, thegeneral government deficit is e &ected to fall to 2.9% of GDP in 200 . #he 200/ b$dgetcontains consolidation meas$res e*$ivalent to aro$nd half a &ercentage &oint of GDP. #hedeficit5red$cing meas$res in the 200/ b$dget com&rise c$ts in health e &endit$res, increases

in income ta rates, red$ced access to $nem&loyment benefits, higher disability &remi$ms,and the &hasing o$t of s$bsidies on lo"5&aid labo$r. 7or a large &art, the savings in 200/reflect the str$ct$ral im&act of meas$res that "ere &art of the A&ril 200 ad)$stment

&ac(age. #he main additional savings in the 200/ b$dget are an increase in the rate for thefirst t"o income ta brac(ets and f$rther c$ts in net s&ending of ministries. 'n 200 , an end tofiscal facilities for early retirement sho$ld also hel& im&rove the general government balance.'n the "a(e of fiscal tightening and a recovery in reven$es in line "ith the e &ected economicrecovery, the deficit is e &ected to fall to 2. % of GDP in 200/ and 2.1% of GDP in 200 . 8ycontrast, the government debt to GDP ratio is &ro)ected to rise over the forecast hori on as aconse*$ence of the rather modest &ic(5$& in nominal GDP and the &ersistence of a headlinedeficit. #he debt ratio is e &ected to increase from / .1% in 2003 to / . % in 200/.

The Netherlands: 5 consecutive years of growth at 3 or moreGro"th. #he :etherlands emerged $nscathed from the cyclical slo"do"n "hich follo"ed thecrisis in the 7ar ast, recording GDP gro"th of 3.9% in 1999, only slightly do"n on 199.1% . GDP gro"th slo"ed significantly bet"een mid5199 and mid51999 b$t too( off again

in the second half of 1999, a develo&ment that "as confirmed in the first half of 2000 $&. % yearon5 year . ven more than in the &revio$s years, gro"th in 1999 "as driven by

&rivate cons$m&tion, "hich rose by . %, the same rate as in 199 , b$t also by investment,"hich increased by ./% against .1% in 199 $naffected by the tem&orary fall in &rod$cer;sconfidence at the end of 199 . 'n contrast, e &ort gro"th slo"ed shar&ly /. % against


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!ctivity in 200"7ollo"ing a b$oyant economic &erformance in 200 , GDP gro"th contin$ed to be strong inthe first *$arter of 200


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#he rise in labo$r demand is &artly being met by a f$rther red$ction in the n$mber of$nem&loyed. #he $nem&loyment rate, already at 3.9% in 200 and 3.1% in e&tember 200


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Des&ite an e &ected mar(ed slo"do"n in the second half of 200 , &rivate investment gro"this e &ected to reach

olanda engleza

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