Oluwakemi Izomo

Hans-Peter Plag August 28, 2014

The Challenge: Leaving the Holocene

http://www.mari.odu.edu

Maintaining a Safe Operating Space for Humanity

Marcott et al., 2013

<------------Holocene------------>

Global Sea Level ChangesGlobal Temperature Changes

<--Holocene-->

The Baseline:During the Holocene, global temperature, climate, and sea level were exceptionally stable.

The Holocene was a “safe operating space for humanity”

The Holocene, the most recent geological epoch, started 11,700

years ago

The Challenge: Leaving the The Challenge: Leaving the HoloceneHolocene

HolocenHolocenee

HolocenHolocenee

Carbon Dioxide

<--------800,000 years------->

21st Century: Post-21st Century: Post-HoloceneHolocene

21st Century: Post-21st Century: Post-HoloceneHolocene

Global Temperature in the Post-Holocene

Our children will have to live on a planet unknown to humanity ...

We are leaving the Holocene:Climate Change (***)

Ocean acidification (**)

Stratospheric ozone depletion (*)

Nitrogen (******) and Phosphorous cycles (**)

Global freshwater (*)

Change in land use (*)

Biodiversity loss (*******)

Atmospheric aerosols (?)

Chemical pollution (?)Climate change is a symptom, not the cause, not the “sickness.”

The “global boundaries” of the “safe operating space for humanity” (Rockström et al., 2009)

We are in the middle of an “extinction-class event”, a planetary accident.

Being out of scale Scaling law for metabolic rate: Y = Y0 * M(3/4)Metabolic Rate

Mass

human: Y = 50 -100 Watt

Energy consumption per capita:Global Average: YE = 2,735 WattM = 10 metric tonsWorst case: YE = 22,000 WattM = 170 metric tons

Extended metabolic rate: YE = Y + CE (CE: total energy consumption)

Blue Whale

Being out of scale Scaling law for metabolic rate: Y = Y0 * M(3/4)

human: Y = 50 -100 Watt

Energy consumption per capita:Global Average: YE = 2,735 WattM = 10 metric tons

Extended metabolic rate: YE = Y + CE (CE: total energy consumption)

Metabolic Rate

Mass

Worst case: YE = 22,000 WattM = 170 metric tons

Humanity has an extended metabolic rate equivalent to 14 Billion elephants(2.7 Billion for the U.S. alone)

14 Billion elephants: a heavy “load’ for Earth

The Global Boundaries of the “safe operating space for humanity” (Rockström et al., 2009)

We are pushing Earth out off the Holocene, our safe operating space ...

It is embarassing how wasteful and inefficient we are ...

“What is good for Earth’s life support system is good for humanity”

Economy for humanity:“An economy that meets our needs while safeguarding Earth’s life-support system, on which the welfare of current and future generations depends.”

Economy is the link between humanity and Earth’s life-support system

Economy against humanity:An economy that meets our needs by burning fossil fuels and destroying Earth’s life-support system is like a doctor who practices medicine by killing the patients.

“Sustainable Development is a development that meets the needs of the presence while safeguarding Earth’s life support systems, on which the welfare of current and future generations depends.” (Griggs et al., 2013)

Maintaining a Safe Operating SpaceMaintaining a Safe Operating Space

Contribution: Understanding that most risks are human-made, self-inflictedPost-2015: Ecosystem-based risk reduction should start with the wasteful, inefficient human ecosystem

Oluwakemi Izomo