on science and governance · 2013. 10. 13. · advice training propaganda. science and first...
TRANSCRIPT
On science and governanceOn science and governanceOn science and governanceOn science and governance
Todays programme
10.3010.3010.3010.30 WelcomeWelcomeWelcomeWelcome11.0011.0011.0011.00 Prof. Prof. Prof. Prof. EkkoEkkoEkkoEkko van Ierlandvan Ierlandvan Ierlandvan Ierland ---- Opening remarks11.0511.0511.0511.05 Prof. Prof. Prof. Prof. KatrienKatrienKatrienKatrien TermeerTermeerTermeerTermeer ---- ‘Third Generation Governance’11.2511.2511.2511.25 Prof. Prof. Prof. Prof. DanielDanielDanielDaniel PaulyPaulyPaulyPauly ---- ‘Fishing and global warming impacts onMarine Ecosystems’11.5511.5511.5511.55 DrDrDrDr. Jan van . Jan van . Jan van . Jan van TatenhoveTatenhoveTatenhoveTatenhove ---- ‘Innovative forms of marine governance: a reflection’12.1512.1512.1512.15 Lunch and coffee break12.4512.4512.4512.45 Prof. Prof. Prof. Prof. DavidDavidDavidDavid BaulcombeBaulcombeBaulcombeBaulcombe ---- ‘On RNAi and its potential applications’13.1513.1513.1513.15 Prof. Bas ArtsProf. Bas ArtsProf. Bas ArtsProf. Bas Arts ---- ‘Biodiversity and bio safety governance: a reflection’13.3013.3013.3013.30 Discussion13.5513.5513.5513.55 Prof. Prof. Prof. Prof. EkkoEkkoEkkoEkko van Ierlandvan Ierlandvan Ierlandvan Ierland ---- Closing remarks
Third Generation Governance
Katrien Termeer Professor of Public Administration and Policy
Complex problems
� Persist for many years� Numerous efforts to remedy them� Causes of complexity:
� Uncertainty� Involvement of many actors � Dynamics of the problem� Connections of problems at different scales
Central questions
� Government is expected to and is ambitious to really solve these problems, but:
� What are the opportunities of government to intervene n society?
� What are the effects of policies as:� Government is dependent on the resources of firms
and citizens?� Problems cross over borders?
Content � Three generations of governance� Description and critics� The role of science� Conclusions
� No attention on agenda setting, defining problems and political struggles behind the selection of instruments
First generation governance
Policy objective
Preferred societal development
Instrument
Changed behaviour firms/citizens
Tools of government: a taxonomy
Positive:broadening behaviour
Negative: constraining behaviour
Juridical instruments
AgreementsTreaties
RegulationLicenses
Economic instruments
SubsidiesGrants
TaxesLevies
Communicative instruments
AdviceTraining
Propaganda
Science and first generation
� Role:� Categorisation, quantification, identification, monitoring� Counting
� Relation:� Separated worlds of science and of politics� Business-wise communication
Limitations first generation governance
� The need for detailed information� Problems with compliance� Self-referential character subjects of steering� Lack of scalability� Human ability of learning and reflexivity
Instrument 1Controller
Company 2Consumers
Environmental organization
Local authorities
Employees
Tradingorganization
Behavior Company 1
Second Generation Governance
Behavior Company 2Behavior Company 3
Effects
Instrument 3
PolicyobjectiveInstrument 2
Company 1
Taxonomy of second generation instruments
Direct: influencing actors’ behaviour
Indirect: changing the network
Juridical instruments
CovenantsCertification
Control of controlsTreat with regulation
Economic instruments
Tradable quota’sPricing
Subsidising NGO’sGroup quota’s
Communicative instruments
LabelingEnvironmental report
AlliancesDebates
Science and second generation
� Role:� Paradoxical� Reducing complexity to manageable proportions� Varied repertoire of activities
� Relation:� Worlds of science and politics are intermingled� Balancing negotiated knowledge-negotiated nonsense
Critics on instrumental approaches
� Damaging effects on adaptive structures and improvisation capacities
� The risk of moral hazard� Temporal mismatch � Irreversible character of many policies
Third generation governance
dynamics natural system
dynamics social system
dynamics policy system
Rules of thumb
� Continuous observation� Provide a general direction� Animate people to generate experiments� Encourage and enable updating� Respectful interactions
Science and third generation
� Different jobs in different arenas� Arena of science: improve understanding
complex dynamic systems� New arena between politics and science
� Intensive interactions policymakers and scientists � Taylor-made activities� Transdisciplinarity� Continuous sense making
Conclusions
� No one best generation� Third generation meaningful if there is a
willingness to adapt, to learn and to develop� Awareness of emergent change can make
government more selective with new policy
Thank you
© Wageningen UR
Impact of Fisheries and Global Warmingon Marine Ecosystems and Food Security
Daniel PaulySea Around Us ProjectFisheries Centre, UBC
Lustrum Symposium On Science and Governance
Wageningen University, March 7, 2008
This graph, illustrating a Canadian tragedy, leads to several questions. One of them is: how typical is the story
of the Northern cod fishery? Can we generalize?
And it goes on!
We can define…
Now let’s apply these definitions to the global FAO catch statistics…
Fully exploited
Developing
Underdeveloped… Over-exploited Crashed
Stoc
ks (%
)
Our first generalization is bleak indeed.
Developing
Fully exploited
Over-exploited
Crashed
Underdeveloped
Global fisheries landings, despite (or because of ) increasing effort, have been declining since the late 1980s,
a fact long hidden by over-reporting from China:
Watson and Pauly (Nature), 2001.
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Glo
bal c
atch
(t ·
106 )
Uncorrected
Corrected
Corrected, no anchoveta
El Niño event
(a)El Niño events
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Wit
hdra
wal
s (m
illio
n t)
A
E
D
C
B
In fact, the decline is even stronger if one considers discarded fish. This was generally overlooked when FAO’s last estimate of discards (dot E; 7-8 million t) was released.
Zeller and Pauly (Fish & Fisheries, 2005)
Peruvian anchoveta
Other landed fishes and invertebrates
Discarded fishes and invertebrates
Biomass of table fish in 1900
(t/km2)
(Christensen et al. 2003, Fish & Fisheries)
and in 2000….
Same thing in West Africa, where there is lots of foreign
fishing
Christensen et al. (2004; Dakar Conference Proceedings)
Back to basics: ecosystem fluxes move up ‘trophic pyramids’…
Tro
phic
l ev e
l
Phytoplankton
Top predators
Prey fish
Zooplankton
. . ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. *.*. .. .... . ..*.*.*.*.*.*.
*.*.*.*.*.*.
*.*.
. . . . . .≅≅≅≅ 10%≅≅≅≅ 10%
≅≅≅≅ 10%≅≅≅≅ 10%
≅≅≅≅10%≅≅≅≅10%
*.*.
4
3
2
1
and each species tends to have its own trophic level…
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
Year
Tro
phic
leve
l
Global coastal
North Atlantic
2000
Another generalization emerges when we compute the mean trophic level of world catches. This shows a global decline…
Pauly et al. (Science, 1998)
In fact, ‘fishing down’ is so widespread that the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) now uses mean trophic levels as an
index of biodiversity, the “Marine Trophic Index”.
Trophic level change (1950-2000)
>1 0.5 to 1.0 no change /no data
And this means that ‘fishing down’ is
everywhere
Grenadier, snoek,seabream
Hake
HakeHake
FlatfishPollock
Flounder
Cod
Cod, saithe, plaice, redfish, haddockDemeral Fishes
Consumers in the ‘North’ have not noticed this, nor similar trends: while most seafood is traded between the EU, the USA and Northeast Asia, the ‘South’ has so far met the shortfall in the ‘North’….
We’ll need to get out of the
vicious circle of contemporary
fisheries management.
Let’s start with subsidies…
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
China
However, all the optimistic projections forget that aquaculture is mainly a Chinese enterprise (2/3 of production), devoted mainly to freshwater fishes…
Aquaculture has grown to a production of 40 millions t in the last decades , and some believe it is solution to our fish supply problem…
Freshw. fishes
Source: Watson, Alder & Pauly, 2006
Moreover, over 1/3 of the world’s fish catch is currently wasted, i.e., turned into animal feeds…
36%
But it may not be simple: see J. Jacquet and D. Pauly. 2007. Therise of consumer awareness campaigns in an era of collapsing fisheries. Marine Policy 31: 315-321.
At this point, people tend to wonder: what fish can I eat? Maybe the answer is simple (see www.seafoodguide.org)…
Pho
to (
?)
by
Jen
nife
r Ja
cqu
et
Meanwhile, thing are heating up…
Al Gore & IPCC: Nobel Prize 2007
Probability of occurrence by water temperature
Temperature-abundance profile
Small yellow croaker (Larimichthys polyactis)
Relative abundance
0
0 - 0.00015
> 0.0015 - 0.0038
> 0.0038 - 0.0062
> 0.0062 - 0.0095
> 0.0095 - 0.012
> 0.012 - 0.016
> 0.016 - 0.023
> 0.023 - 0.030
> 0.030 - 0.040
> 0.040
Low
High
Relative abundance
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28
Temperature (degree C)P
roba
bilit
y of
occ
urre
nce
Small yellow croakerYear 0
Year 2
Small yellow croaker
Year 4
Small yellow croaker
Year 6
Small yellow croaker
Year 8
Small yellow croaker
Year 10
Small yellow croaker
Year 12
Small yellow croaker
Year 14
Small yellow croaker
Year 16
Small yellow croaker
Year 18
Small yellow croaker
Year 20
Small yellow croaker
Year 22
Small yellow croaker
Year 24
Small yellow croaker
Year 26
Small yellow croaker
Year 28
Small yellow croaker
Year 30
Small yellow croaker
Original (static) distribution
Relative abundance
0
0 - 0.00015
> 0.0015 - 0.0038
> 0.0038 - 0.0062
> 0.0062 - 0.0095
> 0.0095 - 0.012
> 0.012 - 0.016
> 0.016 - 0.023
> 0.023 - 0.030
> 0.030 - 0.040
> 0.040
Low
High
Relative abundance
Distribution after 30 years
Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni)
…as an example of a species predicted to go extinct
Marine Protected Areas are part of the solution. There are many, but most of them are tiny…
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Cum
ulat
ive
Are
a ('0
00 s
q km
)
International sites
National sites
1% of world ocean area (growth rate ~ 5% year-1)
Wood et al. (in press)
As a result, the growth of the global MPA network is so slow that we will miss all the
targets…
Wood et al. (in press)
Acknowledgements…• Thanks to the Pew Charitable Trusts,
Philadelphia;
• Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia;
• Members of the Sea Around Us project,and many others...
visit us at www.seaaroundus.org
Innovative Forms of Marine Governance: A Reflection
Jan van Tatenhove
What is happening in the Marine Environment?
� Fisheries� Commercial Shipping and Ship building
� Offshore Energy Production� Activities in Coastal Regions
Disturbance of Marine Ecosystems(illustration: Halpern et.al. 2008)
What are the problems?
� The exhaustion of supplies� Over exploitation of resources� Loss of biodiversity
� The destruction of ecosystems� Destruction of coastal ecosystems� Climate change
� Exceeding the waste repository system� Ocean disposals and spills (by ships)� Maritime accidents� Land-based contamination
Maritime activities and social scientists
� Problems and solutions are negotiated upon and constructed
� There is no subject – object relation between a governing system and a system-to-be-governed
� Governing of marine activities is complex and takes place in a context of institutional ambiguity
� To understand the complexity of governing marine activities one has to understand the shift in locus and focus of processes of governing
A Changing Context of Marine Politics and Policy
� Shift in Locus� New Actors� New Levels
� Shift in Focus� New Rules� New Steering Mechanisms
� Shifts resulted in new governance arrangements
Marine Governance
� Sharing of (marine) policy making competences in a system of negotiation between nested governmental institutions at several tiers (international, (supra)national, regional and local) on the one hand and state actors, market parties and civil society organizations on the other in order to govern activities at sea and their consequences
Marine Governance is about…
� Processes of marine policy making (PolicyPolicyPolicyPolicy)� The actions of politicians (on different levels) and
power relations between political actors (PoliticsPoliticsPoliticsPolitics) � The institutional settings (or system of rules) in which
marine policy and politics take place (PolityPolityPolityPolity)
Triangle of Governance
Source: Van Tatenhove & Van Leeuwen (2007)
POLITYPOLITY
POLITICSPOLITICS
POLICYPOLICY
Examples of Innovative Forms of Governance
� Regional Advisory Councils� Marine Protected Areas and Marine Spatial
Planning� Clean Ship
Challenges for Maritime Governance
� Understanding the different dynamics of governance in marine policy domains� Interplay of polity – policy – politics (different triangles)� Co-existence of traditional and innovative governance
arrangements (within a triangle)� Understanding the constraining and enabling conditions
for an integrated maritime policy� Region oriented maritime policy� Co-existence of sectoral and integrative triangles
� Designing integrated marine governance arrangements� Discourses, stakeholders, rules of the game and new sites of
power
Conclusion
© Wageningen UR
Technological implications of basic
research in plant science – the case
history of RNA silencing
David Baulcombe
Cambridge University UKwww.plantsci.cam.ac.uk/research/davidbaulcombe.html
technology for flower colour modification
natural flower pigmentation
gene
natural flower pigmentation gene
+ flower pigmentation transgene
parasite-derived resistance
potato virus X
PVX transgene
PVX transgene RNA
RNA silencing
PVX virus
PVX virus RNA
RNA silencing mediates virus
resistance in transgenic plants
12K
25K 8K CP166K
RNA silencing – a control system in plants,
animals and fungi
dsRNA
21+24nt RNA
dicer
Argonaut/slicerAGO AGO
Song et al. (2004)
specificity of nuclease action on target RNA
determined by base pairing of target and 21-
24nt sRNA
dsRNA gene 1
phenotype 1?
dsRNA gene 2
phenotype 2?
dsRNA gene 3
phenotype 3?
dsRNA gene n
phenotype n?
functional genomics
virus-induced silencing of leafy
w.t.
C
bleaching
A
stunting
B
leaf distorsion
D
dead plants
a silencing screen in plants
RNA silencing in biomedicine
The potential for application
• Functional genomics
• Drug target validation
• Therapeutics
The potential and actual problems
• Specificity and off-target effects
• Delivery of siRNA or dsRNA to site of intended action
delivery of siRNA stops virus
accumulation
Novina et al. , Nature Medicine 8 (2002) 681-686
RNA silencing in plants and agriculture
The potential for applications
• Functional genomics
• Validation of targets for herbicides and other crop protection chemicals
• Direct silencing of useful target genes
• Varied mechanisms generate diverse types of application
The potential and actual problems
• Fewer off target effects than in animals because the mechanism is inherently more specific in plants
• Direct delivery of siRNA or dsRNA to site of intended action transgenic expression or –rarely- direct application of siRNA
strategies for virus resistance based
on understanding of mechanism
• Transgenic – transgenes to target silencing
against a virus – amiRNA probably better than
siRNA methods
The same RNAi method can be used to control nematodes
PNAS Sept 2006
The same RNAi method can also be used to control insectsNat Biotech Nov 2007
RNA silencing is part of virus defense and
developmental control
RDR6 knock down wt
PVX infected
the value of RNA silencing …..
the real value of RNA silencing
• virus and other
infectious disease in
biomedicine
• crop improvement
for sustainable
agriculture via GM
and non GM
approaches
The value of basic plant science
Martinus Beijerinck, 1851-1931
Biodiversity and Biosafety Governance: A ReflectionProf. Bas Arts
Contents
� Global governance� GMOs & biosafety� Cartagena Protocol on
Biosafety (CPB)� Science-policy interface� Two belief systems, two
advocacy coalitions� Conclusions
Global governance
� Governing without (world) government
� Co-ordination mechanisms to address global issues
� Different ‘spheres of authority’ (SOAs)
� Scaling issue
GMOs, GM crops
Promises� High-yielding ‘super plants’� Resistance to diseases � Pesticide / herbicide
tolerance Concerns� Ethical and religious� Environmental effects� Health effects
Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety
� CBD (1992)� Binding law (since
2003)� > 150 countries� USA not!� Role NGOs & firms
Biosafety Protocol: 5 key issues
1. Safe transfer, handling and use of GMOs(LMOs) to protect biodiversity and health
2. Advance Informed Agreement (AIA-procedure)
3. Precautionary principle & risk assessment
4. Commodities (GM food)
CPBCPBCPBCPB WTOWTOWTOWTO
Discrimination(GM product ≠ normal product)
Non-discrimination(GM product = normal product)
Process approach(focus on production process)
Product approach(focus on product itself)
Precautionary approach(preventive action)
Scientific rationality(evidence-based action)
5. Biosafety vs. International trade
WTO regime ≠ ‘open access’
For example: SPS Agreement� Human, animal, plant life and health � Sanitary and phyto-sanitary measures� Legitimate ‘violation’ of non-discrimination
principle� Science & precautionary principle� Not biosafety (so far) � US/EU case!� Future: CPB+ as WTO-agreement on biosafety?
Science-policy interface
� Scientists are often frustrated by politics…� But: politics is about facts and values…� And: Scientist often disagree….
Types of policy issues (Hirschemöller)
Certainty aboutfacts
Uncertainty aboutfacts
Valueconsensus
StructuredStructuredStructuredStructuredIssue (‘truth to power’)
Mixed
No valueconsensus
Mixed UnstructuredUnstructuredUnstructuredUnstructured issue (‘joint learning’)
SCOPUS, ‘GMOs AND risks’, N=189 �N=40TopicTopicTopicTopic N articlesN articlesN articlesN articles
Risks/uncertainties/control 19
Equivalence/promise 11
Policy (implementation) 4
Role sciences/scientists 4
State of the art 2
Types of policy issues (Hirschemöller)
Certainty aboutfacts
Uncertainty aboutfacts
Valueconsensus
StructuredStructuredStructuredStructuredIssue (‘truth to power’)
Mixed
No valueconsensus
Mixed BiosafetyBiosafetyBiosafetyBiosafety
Different beliefs & coalitions (Sabatier)
Miami Group IndustryPro-biotech, WTO regime, science
Like-minded Group, EU, NGOsGMO concerns, environmental regime, precautionary pr.
Public pressure
Biosafety protocol
Conclusions
� Science and governance: complex relationship� Shifts in global governance (1)� Shifts in knowledge production (2)
� Different ‘belief systems’ (perceived facts & values)� USA vs. EU; Industry vs. NGOs
� Focus on ‘regime interaction’ is very important� CPB and WTO not necessarily mutually exclusive…
Thank you
© Wageningen UR
Closing remarksprof. Ekko van Ierland
© Wageningen UR
Admission for DiesNo admission for Dies
Thank you
© Wageningen UR