overview of federal appliance standards and their impact on regional loads tom eckman northwest...
TRANSCRIPT
Overview of Federal Appliance Standards
and Their Impact on Regional Loads
Tom EckmanNorthwest Power and Conservation Council
BPA Utility Brown BagSeptember 4, 2014
Savings from Many Mechanisms
Today’s Presentation
Short history and “primer” on federal efficiency standards for appliances, equipment and lighting
Why standards are important mechanism for capturing savings
Historical and projected impact of federal efficiency standards on regional loads
4
Legislative History of Federal Appliance Standards
1975
1979
1987
1992
2005
2007
2013
Chart TitleEnergy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) establishes of test procedures, labeling, and energy targets for consumer products. Standards to follow if voluntary targets aren’t met.
EPCA amended. Directs Department of Energy (DOE) to establish energy conservation standards for consumer products.
The National Appliance Energy Conservation Act of 1987 (NAECA) establishes minimum efficiency standards for common household appliances and DOE review schedules
The Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct) adds standards for some fluorescent and incandescent reflector lamps, plumbing products, electric motors, commercial water heaters, and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. EPAct also authorized DOE to develop of standards for additional products.
Energy Policy Act 2005 sets new standards for 16 products and directed DOE to set standards via rulemaking for another five.
The Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA 2007), enacted new or updated standards for 13 products. EISA also included a requirement that DOE maintain a schedule to regularly review and update all standards and test procedures.
5
Standards Process Subject to Political Climate
1975
1979
1987
1992
2005
2007
2013
Chart Title
Bush ObamaCarter Reagan Bush IIClinton
More New Standards Set by
Congress
States file lawsuit against DOE for failure to update standards on
mandated schedule
DOE authorized to set efficiency
targets and standards
DOE falls behind on updating over
25 standards
DOE, under court supervised
schedule, gets on track
Current Status
Currently there are minimum energy efficiency standards for more than 50 categories of appliances and equipment.
Products covered by standards represent about 90% of home energy use, 60% of commercial building use, and 29% of industrial energy use.
DOE must now review each product standard every six years to determine whether it should be revised
Major Product Categories Covered by Federal Efficiency Standards
Battery Chargers and External Power Supplies Ceiling Fan Light Kits Residential & Commercial Clothes Washers Commercial Ice Makers Commercial Packaged Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps Commercial Packaged Heating and Cooling
Equipment Residential & Commercial Refrigerators & Freezers Commercial Warm Air Furnaces Residential & Commercial Water Heaters and Unfired
Water Heater Tanks Compact Fluorescent Lamps Dehumidifiers Direct heating equipment Electric Motors Exit Signs General Service Fluorescent Lamps and Ballasts General Service Incandescent Lamps Incandescent Reflector Lamps Low & Medium Voltage Transformers
Metal Halide Lamps Fixtures Pool heaters Refrigerated Beverage Vending
Machines Residential Central Air Conditioners
and Heat Pumps Residential Clothes Dryers Residential Dishwashers Residential Furnaces & Boilers Residential Ranges and Ovens Room Air Conditioners Single Packaged Vertical Air
Conditioners and Heat Pumps Torchiers Traffic and Pedestrian Signal Walk-in Coolers and Walk-In Freezers
Why Federal Efficiency Standards Are Valuable
Lower Cost – Standards produce savings at lower “total cost” because they avoid program administrative costs.
Larger Savings -- Standards effect the entire market while programs effect only a portion of the market resulting in greater total savings for comparable improvements in efficiency
Greater Equity -- The “compliance cost” of meeting a standard is borne by the consumers who benefit from the increased efficiency.
Historical Standards Impacts –Residential Refrigerators
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Year
An
nu
al E
nerg
y U
se (
kWh
) 1983 Plan Baseline
Prior Federal Standards
New Federal Standards
Historical Standards Impact –Residential Freezers
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Year
An
nu
al E
nerg
y U
se (
kWh
) 1983 Plan Baseline
Prior Federal Standards
New Federal Std.
Standards Impact –Residential Dishwashers
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Year
An
nu
al E
nerg
y U
se (
kWh
)
1983 Plan BaselinePrior Federal Standards
New Federal Standard
Standards Impact –Residential Clothes Washers
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Year
An
nu
al E
nerg
y U
se (
kWh
)
1983 Plan BaselinePrior Federal Standards
New Federal Standards
13
State Energy Codes and Federal Standards Reduced 2010 Regional Retail Sales by
Approximately 2300 MWa*
19851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500IrrigationTransportationIndustrialCommercialResidential
Ave
rage
Meg
awatt
s
*Reflects Codes and Standards Adopted Prior to Sixth Plan
Federal Standards Contribute About 20% of Cumulative Regional Conservation
Savings
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Federal StandardsState CodesNEEA ProgramsBPA and Utility Programs
Cum
ula
tive S
avin
gs (
MW
a)
30 New Federal Efficiency Standards Take Effect This
Decade
Packaged Terminal AC and HP
Boilers, Commercial
Incandescent Reflector Lamps
Clothes Washers, Commercial
Refrigerators and Freezers
Water Heaters
Clothes Dryers
Distribution Transformers: Liquid-Immersed
External Power Supplies
Walk-In Coolers and Freezers
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Year New Standard Takes Effect
15
And, There Are More On the Way2014 DOE Rulemaking Schedule
Month Product Rulemaking Stage
January Commercial Water Heaters** Proposed rule or negative determination on coverage
June Commercial Boilers Proposed rule
JulyCommercial Furnaces Proposed ruleCommercial Packaged A/C and Heat Pumps Proposed ruleHigh-Intensity Discharge (HID) Lamps Proposed rule
AugustHearth Products Proposed rule
Single Package Vertical A/C and Heat Pumps Proposed rule
SeptemberDishwashers Proposed ruleResidential Boilers Proposed rule
OctoberASHRAE HVAC Products Proposed rule
Battery Chargers Supplemental proposed rule
NovemberGas and Oil Furnaces Proposed ruleGeneral Service Fluorescent Lamps and IRLs Final rule
Contribution of Federal Standards Toward 6th Plan
Efficiency Goals
18
Sixth Plan Resource PortfolioSource:http://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/powerplan/6/2010-01/
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000NG Single Cycle
Demand Response
Simple-Cycle Gas
Combined-Cycle Gas
Renewables
Efficiency
Cu
mu
lati
ve R
eso
urc
e (
Avera
ge M
eg
aw
att
s)
*Expected Value Build Out. Actual build out schedule depends on future conditions
18
What’s The Contribution of Federal Standards?
6th Plan Conservation Goals
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Discretionary Lost-Opportunity
Ann
ual A
cqui
sitio
ns (a
MW
)
1200 aMW2010-2014
1660 aMW2015-2019
Total Savings Forecast from Federal Standards Add Up to 780 Average Megawatts by 2029
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900Residential Appliances & EquipmentCommercial & Industrial EquipmentLighting Equipment
Cum
ulati
ve S
avin
gs (M
Wa)
Federal Standards Adopted The Since Sixth Plan Capture One Quarter of The Twenty-Year Lost-Opportunity
Potential
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Lost-Opportunity Savings Goal Lighting EquipmentCommercial & Industrial Equipment Residential Appliances & Equipment
Cum
ulati
ve S
avin
gs (M
Wa)
Implication for the Seventh Plan
Compared to the Sixth Plan: Load forecast will be lower, particularly over
the long term Remaining conservation potential will be
lower But not as much lower as the load forecast, since
standard impact all units, but conservation assessment assumes less than 100% program success
Conservation programs will need adjust their focus to measures less impacted by federal standards