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2018 한국수리생물학회 연례 학술대회
2018 Annual Conference of
Korean Society for Mathematical Biology (KSMB ’18)
초 록 집
P r o g r a m &
A b s t r a c t s
2018년 6월 28일(목) ~ 6월 30일(토)
부산 해운대그랜드호텔
주최: 한국수리생물학회 (KSMB)
주관: 부산대학교 산업수학센터, 한국수리생물학회
후원: 부산대학교 산업수학센터
2018 한국수리생물학회 1 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
2018 한국수리생물학회 학술대회 조직위원회
조직위원장 김용국 경북대학교
김현민 부산대학교
조직위원 이창형 UNIST
정일효 부산대학교
조기필 부산대학교
2018 한국수리생물학회 학술대회 일정표 6월 28일~30일
부산 해운대그랜드호텔
날짜 시간 일정 Room 1: 더 뷰(The View) 홀(3층) Room 2: 스튜디오 1 (2층) Room 3: 스튜디오 2(2층) Lobby (3층)
15:30 ~ Registration Registration
Slot 1 16:00-17:40 Session
Session A
Mathematics in Geosciences
(좌장: 김상일)
17:40-18:00 Coffee Break Coffee Break
Slot 2 18:00-20:00 Public Lecture
Public Lecture
수학과 생물학의 아름다운 만남
(Speaker: 김재경)
08:30 ~ Registration Registration
Slot 3 09:00-10:40 Parallel Sessions
Session A1
Ecological Modelling for Invasive
Species
(좌장: 박영석)
Session A2
동물질병 관리와 수리역학
(좌장:윤하정)
Session A3
When Math Meets Brain
(좌장: 김재경)
10:40-10:50 Coffee Break Coffee Break
10:50-11:00Opening
Ceremony
Opening Remarks
(KSMB 회장)
Slot 4 11:00-11:50 Plenary Lecture
Plenary Lecture I
바이오·의료 산업 분야에서의
수학의 비전과 역할
(Speaker: 정은옥)
12:00-13:00 Lunch 6층 에메랄드 홀
Slot 5 13:00-13:50 Poster Session Poster Session
Slot 6 13:50-15:30 Parallel Sessions
Session B1
Mathematical Models in
Epidemiology and Ecology
(좌장: 이창형)
Session B2
생물 의학 영상에서의 수학
(좌장: 문성환)
Session B3
Mathematical modeling for
microRNA-mediated epigenetic
regulation of gene expression
(좌장: 송승규)
15:30-15:40 Coffee Break Coffee Break
Slot 7 15:40-17:20 Parallel Sessions
Session C1
Optimization Problems and its
Applications
(좌장: 조기필)
Session C2
Mathematics in Marine Biology
(좌장: 윤민)
Session C3
Game Theory in Mathematical
Biology
(좌장: 김철민)
17:20-17:30 Coffee Break Coffee Break
Slot 8 17:30-18:20 Plenary Lecture
Plenary Lecture II
Real time research response to
rubella epidemic in Japan and
mentoring for epidemic modeling
experts
(Speaker: Hiroshi Nishiura)
18:20-18:40 Poster Award Poster Award (KSMB 회장)
18:40-21:00 Banquet 6층 에메랄드 홀
09:30 ~ Registration Registration
Slot 10 10:00-11:40 Parallel Sessions
Session D1
기후변화 영향평가를 위한 RCP
기반 기후변화 응용정보 생산
(좌장: 정일효)
Session D2
Mathematical Modeling and its
Applications
(좌장: 김광수)
Session D3
General Session
11:40 Closing
6월 28일(목)
6월 30일(토)
6월 29일(금)
Slot 9
2018 한국수리생물학회 3 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
2018 한국수리생물학회 4 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
2018 KSMB 학술대회 일정
6월 28일 (목)
15:30- Registration
16:00-17:40 Session A: Mathematics in Geosciences
(좌장: 김상일)
① 기상청의 해양기상 예측시스템과 정보 현황 (강기룡)
② 4차 산업혁명 핵심기술을 활용한 해양수산변동 예측 연구 (오현주)
③ 분석에서 예측까지, 수학으로 풀어가는 지진의 세계 (박순천)
④ 자료동화기법을 적용한 한국해양과학기술원의 해양/기후 예측 (김영호)
17:40-18:00 Coffee Break
18:00-20:00 Public Lecture: 수학과 생물학의 아름다운 만남
(Speaker: 김재경)
2018 한국수리생물학회 5 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
6월 29일 (금)
09:00-10:40 Session A1: Ecological Modeling for Invasive Species
(좌장: 박영석)
① 국내 주요 외래 산림 해충과 수리 모델 (최원일)
② Dispersal of invasive species and their regional-population dynamics
(Daisuke Takahashi)
③ An attempt to simulate the population dynamics of Spartina spp. in Korea
(Seungwoo Sim)
④ Landoltia punctate의 국내 분포현황 및 확산 가능성 검토 (최동희)
⑤ 미국선녀벌레(Metcalfa pruinosa)의 국내 발생 특성 분석 및 위험도 평가 (이대성)
09:00-10:40 Session A2: 동물질병 관리와 수리역학
(좌장: 윤하정)
① Boosted Regression Tree 모형을 이용한 2003-2016 고병원성 조류인플루엔자 발생 위험요인
추정: 예비 결과 (김으뜸)
② MaxEnt을 이용한 대한민국의 고병원성조류인플루엔자 감염가능 가금농장의 분포 추정 (유대성)
③ Effect of rodent diversity on bovine tuberculosis in Korea (민경덕)
④ 딥러닝 모델을 적용한 조류인플루엔자 위험농장 예측사례 (장아름)
⑤ Risk assessment of HPAI transmission for poultry farms by livestock transport vehicle
movement (조기필)
⑥ 구제역 상시 백신 접종상황에서 농장내 구제역 바이러스 확산 양상에 대한 수리 모델 (윤하정)
09:00-10:40 Session A3: When Math Meets Brain
(좌장: 김재경)
① Social Status-Dependent Shift in Neural Circuit Activation Affects Decision Making
(Choongseok Park)
② A Mathematical Model of Synaptic Transmission for Independent Currents
(Sat byul Seo)
③ Pharmacomanipulation of circardian rhythms in non-human primates: development
of model-based precision medicine (Dae Wook Kim)
④ Mathematical Modeling for Pacemaker-neuron-dependent Molecular Rhythm
Alteration by Drosophila Clock Mutant (Eui Min Jeong)
⑤ Network inference of circadian clock (Seokjoo Chae)
10:40-10:50 Coffee Break
10:50-11:00
Greeting & Opening Remarks
(KSMB 회장)
2018 한국수리생물학회 6 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
11:00-11:50 Plenary Lecture I: 바이오·의료 산업 분야에서의 수학의 비젼과
역할 (Speaker: 정은옥)
12:00-13:00 Lunch (6층 에메랄드 홀)
13:00-13:50
Poster Session
Modeling some metabolic pathways (Sangha Kim and Jangmi Kim)
The State-Space Surplus Production Model for Assessing Chub mackerel (Scomber
japonicus) stock in Korean waters (Yu Ri Jung)
Analyzing sleep pattern of shift workers via Phillips-Chen-Robinson model (PCR
model) (Jae Hyoung Hong)
Sex Ratio Variations in The Haploid Model (Minjae Kim)
Mathematical model of highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic 2016-2017 in
Korea (Youngsuk Ko)
Synergetic effect of bortezomib on oncolytic virus: signaling pathways (Jun Ho Lee)
Modeling for Mathematical Biology (Sae eun Lee)
Agent-Based Simulation of the two-dimensional Patlak-Keller-Segel equation
(Gyu Ho Bae)
A Length-based Model for Assessing the chub mackerel Scomber japonicus
population in Korean waters (Jinwoo Gim)
How can a failure in immune balance (TH17, Neutrophil, Tregs) lead to tumor
invasion in lung cancer development: A Mathematical model (Donggu Lee)
Inter-farm Model for Spread of Foot and Mouth Disease
(James Slghee Kim, Yongin Choi, Jongo Park)
13:50-15:30 Session B1: Mathematical Models in Epidemiology and Ecology
(좌장: 이창형)
① Community Structure and Diversity in Benthic Macroinvertebrates in Streams in
Different Spatial Scales (Tae-Soo Chon)
② A New Approach to Termite Population Size Estimation Based on Termite Tunnel
Pattern Using a Convolution Neural Network (Sang-Hee Lee)
③ Determination of the End of the Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa with Sexual
Transmission (Hyojung Lee)
④ Effects of climate change on Plasmodium vivax malaria transmission dynamics
(Jung Eun Kim)
⑤ A Dynamic Model and Control strategies of Tuberculosis in the Philippines
(Soyoung Kim)
2018 한국수리생물학회 7 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
13:50-15:30 Session B2: 생물 의학 영상에서의 수학
(좌장: 문성환)
① Integral transforms arising in several types of computerized tomography
(Sunghwan Moon)
② Industrial mathematics and deep learning in ultrasound imaging (Jaeseong Jang)
③ Mathematics in skin cancer diagnosis (Kiwoon Kwon)
④ Mathematical approaches for radiation imaging (Soo Mee Kim)
13:50-15:30 Session B3: Mathematical Modeling for microRNA-mediated
epigenetic regulation of gene expression (좌장: 송승규)
① Mathematical Model for Combinatorial Regulation of miR-9 and miR-23a on Hes1
Expression Revealing Irreversible Bistability during Neuronal Differentiation
(Woon Yong Jung)
② A Mathematical Model of microRNA-mediated regulatory feedback loops of gene
expression (Yong Keun Park)
③ A practical modeling of post-transcriptional regulation by microRNAs
(Sung Kyu Song)
15:30-15:40 Coffee Break
15:40-17:20 Session C1: Optimization Problems and its Applications
(좌장: 조기필)
① Dynamics and optimal control of an age structured SIRVS epidemic model
(Xi-Chao Duan)
② Exact Semidefinite Programming Relaxations for a clss of Nondifferentiable
Fractional Optimization Problems (Liguo Jiao)
③ Quasi ɛ-solutions in convex optimization with locally Lipschitz constrains (Zhe Hong)
④ Control Malaria through media Awareness: A Mathematical Modeling Approach
(Malick Muhammad Ibrahim)
15:40-17:20 Session C2: Mathematics in Marine Biology
(좌장: 윤민)
① Fish stock assessments: e.g., a state-space age structure model (Saang-Yoon Hyun)
② Bioactive Peptides from Marine Organism (Nam Gyu Park)
③ Characterization of the transcriptome and gene expression of hemocytes in Abalone
(Gun-Do Kim)
15:40-17:20 Session C3: Game Theory in Mathematical Biology
(좌장: 김철민)
① Seven Rules to Avoid the Tragedy of the Commons (Seungki Baek)
② Hawk-Dove Game with Terminator (Muyoung Heo)
③ Group Formation Dynamics under Limited Resource (Pilwon Kim)
2018 한국수리생물학회 8 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
17:20-17:30 Coffee Break
17:30-18:20
Plenary Lecture II: Real time research response to rubella
epidemic in Japan and mentoring for epidemic modeling
experts (Speaker: Hiroshi Nishiura)
18:20-18:40 포스터 시상식
(KSMB 회장)
18:40-21:00 Banquet (6층 에메랄드 홀)
2018 한국수리생물학회 9 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
6월 30일 (토)
10:00-11:40 Session D1: 기후변화 영향평가를 위한 RCP기반 기후변화 응용
정보 생산 (좌장: 정일효)
① The Production of Climate Change Information from RCP-based climate data for
Assessment of Impact on various measures in Animal Ecology (Heejin Kang)
② 동아시아 몬순 기후의 강수 특성을 반영할 수 있는 Modified Simple Aridity Intensity
Index 개발과 적용 (Sle-gee Lee)
③ Predict of Warter Quality Based on RCP Scenario: Case of Nakdong River Basin,
South Korea (Jaerock Park)
④ Scheduling Weekly Malaria Vector Control in Republic of Korea using RCP-based
Climate Data (Sungchan Kim)
10:00-11:40 Session D2: Mathematical Modeling and its Applications
(좌장: 김광수)
① Analysis of Leslie matrix model depending on survival rate of Trichiurus Lepturus
eggs in Korean Waters (Yong Dam Jeong)
② On the Relation between Mosquito Feeding Behavioral Changes and the Malaria
Invasion / Extinction Potentials (Sungchan Kim)
③ Analysis of Smoking Phenomenon Based on Individuals Behavior Change
(Jae Hun Jung)
④ Tumor Growth Inhibition Model Based on Continuous Time Random Walk
(Jong hyuk Byun)
10:00-11:40 Session D3: General Session
① 창원 근해의 보름달 물 해파리 대량발생 예측 시뮬레이션 (진홍성)
② Mathematcial model of the dynamics of bacterial flagellar in a fluid environment
(Wanho Lee)
③ Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) population advancement in association with
environmental factors using self-organiziong map and diffusion kernel methods
(Sungwon Hong)
11:40- Closing
2018 한국수리생물학회 10 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
2018 한국수리생물학회 11 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
색 지
Public Lecture
2018 한국수리생물학회 12 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
2018 한국수리생물학회 13 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Public Lecture
수학과 생물학의 아름다운 만남
Jae Kyoung Kim
Department of Mathematical Sciences, KAIST
최근 세상에서 존재하는 가장 복잡한 시스템인 생명현상을 이해하는데 수학이 활발히 사용되고
있습니다. 이번 강연해서 이러한 수학과 생물학의 만남에 관해서 소개하려 합니다. 특히 고등학교
에서 배우는 미분과 적분이 생명현상을 이해하는데 어떠한 중요한 역할을 하는지 알아보고 실제
생물학 퍼즐들을 같이 풀어보는 시간을 가지려 합니다.
Mathematics has been actively used to understand living system, the most complex system in
the world. In this lecture, I would like to introduce about such encounter between mathematics
and biology. Especially, I would like to illustrate how calculus plays the critical role in
understanding life phenomena and take time to solve real biology puzzles together.
2018 한국수리생물학회 14 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
2018 한국수리생물학회 15 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
색 지
Plenary Lectures
2018 한국수리생물학회 16 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
2018 한국수리생물학회 17 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Plenary Lecture I
바이오·의료 산업 분야에서의 수학의 비젼과 역할
정은옥 교수
한국산업응용수학회 회장 / 건국대학교 수학과
우리나라 수학자들에게 십여 년 전까지 만해도 Biomathematics, Mathematical Biology, Mathematics in
Medicine 혹은 “바이오수학, 의료수학"이란 단어가 그리 친근감이 있는 단어는 아니었다. 전 세계
적으로 수학에서도 바이오·의료 분야에서의 수리생물학에 대한 관심이 점점 더해가고 있다. 최근
에는 바이오·의료 산업 분야에서의 기업체 혹은 정부기관에서의 현안문제와 난제 해결을 위해 수
학적 모델링과 최적화에 바탕을 둔 수학이 핵심기술 개발과 정책결정의 과학적 근거를 제시하는
중요한 역할을 하고 있다. 생명 현상의 복잡성(Complexity)을 수학을 통해 연구하기 위해서는 주
어진 문제에 대한 분석과 해석이 다양한 연결끈(Connection)으로 이루어져 있어야 할 것이다. 예를
들면, 혈류순환계에 대한 연구를 위해 수리모델을 세우고, 수치적인 결과를 얻기 위해 계산수학의
방법이 쓰이고, 결과의 해석을 돕기 위하여 영상이 필요하며, 연구의 검증을 위하여 실제의 실험
데이터와 비교 분석이 필수적이다. 이렇듯 바이오·의료 수학의 연구는 복잡성과 여러 학문과의 연
결이 필수적인 단순한 학문은 아니다. 하지만 생명 현상의 신비로움과 복잡성의 이해에 대한 도
전(Challenge)을 할 수 있는 진취적인 학문인 것이다. 또한 학계, 기업체, 사회, 문화가 소통
(Communication)하는 학문, 즉 4C, "Complexity, Connection, Challenge, Communication“하는 학문이라
할 수 있겠다.
본 발표에서는 우리나라에서 수학이 어떻게 바이오 의료 분야에서의 현안 문제와 연계될 수 있
는 지에 대한 구체적인 문제를 제시하고 그 역할과 비젼을 논할 것이다. 예를 들면, 메르스나 신
종플루와 같은 현안 신종감염병 문제, 암이나 심혈관 질환, 생체주기 등에서의 수학이 어떻게 표
현되고 질병 예방 및 치료나 중재정책 제안에 수학이 어떤 역할을 할 수 있는지를 다룰 것이다.
마지막으로, 젊은 수리생물학자들이 바이오·의료 산업 분야에서 핵심적인 인력으로 성정하기 위해
서 필요한 요소가 무엇인지, 수학계와 기업체 혹은 정부기관과의 소통을 위해 어떤 준비를 해야
하는지 같이 생각해 보는 시간이 되었음 한다.
2018 한국수리생물학회 18 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Plenary Lecture II
Real time research response to rubella epidemic in Japan and
mentoring for epidemic modeling experts
Hiroshi Nishiura
Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University
Despite continued routine immunization against rubella, Japan experienced a large epidemic
of rubella from 2012-14, involving a total of 45 congenital rubella syndrome. As possible
countermeasures, the Japanese government implemented supplementary immunization
program, but that has required many challenges including (i) the identification of risk groups,
(ii) vaccination strategy with or without serological testing before immunization, and (iii)
optimal target and the required total amount of vaccine doses. For each decision making
process, parsimonious mathematical models have been employed. A part of these responses
have been made in real time. We overview how the training and mentoring of graduate level
researchers are conducted involving them in the process of real time research response.
REFERENCES
[1] Kinoshita R, Nishiura H. Assessing herd immunity against rubella in Japan: a retrospective
seroepidemiological analysis of age-dependent transmission dynamics. BMJ Open. 2016 Jan 27;6(1):e009928.
[2] Nishiura H, Kinoshita R, Miyamatsu Y, Mizumoto K. Investigating the immunizing effect of the rubella
epidemic in Japan, 2012-14. International Journal of Infectious Diseases 2015;38:16-8.
[3] Saito MM, Ejima K, Kinoshita R, Nishiura H. Assessing the Effectiveness and Cost-Benefit of Test-and-
Vaccinate Policy for Supplementary Vaccination against Rubella with Limited Doses.Int J Environ Res Public
Health. 2018;15(4):pii:E572.
2018 한국수리생물학회 19 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
색 지
Special Sessions
2018 한국수리생물학회 20 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
2018 한국수리생물학회 21 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Session A
Mathematics in Geosicences
Organizer: 김상일 (한국외국어대학교)
Date/Time: 6월 28일(목) 16:00
Speakers:
1. 강기룡 (국립기상과학원)
2. 오현주 (국립수산과학원)
3. 박순천 (기상청)
4. 김영호 (한국해양과학기술원)
2018 한국수리생물학회 22 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
기상청의 해양기상 예측시스템과 정보 현황
Kiryoung Kang
지구시스템연구관, 국립기상과학원
지구상에서 해양과 대기는 서로 인접하여 직접 또는 간접으로 끊임없이 그 영향을 주고받고 있
다. 해양기상은 이러한 현상을 연구하는 분야로써 이를 예측하기 위해서는 두 영역에 대한 이해
와 상호작용에 대한 분석이 필요하다. 해양에서의 해양파랑, 폭풍해일, 표층해류 현상 등은 그 좋
은 예가 될 수 있다. 기상청은 해상에서의 안전한 활동을 위한 해상예보업무를 수행하고 있으며,
예보정확도를 향상시키기 위한 다양한 기술개발을 수행하고 있다. 특히 슈퍼컴퓨터에서 운용되고
있는 다양한 종류의 해양과 대기관련 수치모델들은 예측정확도 향상과 신속한 정보생산을 가능하
게 하고 있다.
본 발표에서는 기상청에서 운영하고 있거나 개발하고 있는 해양기상 관련 예측시스템들을 소개
하고자 한다. 해양 파랑과 관련하여 전지구와 지역규모의 단일 모델 예측시스템과 앙상블 예측시
스템, 저기압과 고기압의 이동에 따른 기압 차이와 해상풍 변동에 기인한 해일을 예측하는 지역
폭풍해일 예측시스템, 마지막으로, 위성, 선박, 무인관측플로트에서 생산된 전 지구 해양관측 자료
를 활용한 수온, 염분, 해류 분석장 생산 시스템(전지구 해양자료동화시스템)들이 소개될 것이다.
더불어 이러한 시스템에서 생산되고 있는 정보들도 위험기상 사례를 중심으로 제시될 것이다.
2018 한국수리생물학회 23 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
4차 산업혁명 핵심기술을 활용한 해양수산변동 예측 연구
오현주
기후변화연구관, 국립수산과학원
최근 이 시대 최고의 화두는 4차산업혁명이다. 빅데이터, 인공지능, 사물인터넷, 가상현실 등 4
차산업혁명 핵심기술의 발달로 인해 미래 우리 세상은 많은 변화가 올 것이다. 국립수산과학원은
1921년부터 우리나라 연근해역의 해양변동을 선박과 지구탐사위성으로 모니터링하고 있으나 최근
에는 4차산업혁명 핵심기술인 수중글라이드, 드론을 활용하여 기후변화 등으로 급변하고 있는 해
양생태계의 변동을 파악하고 예측하고 있다. 이를 활용한 우리나라 연근해역의 해양먹이망 등 먹
이구조 파악을 위해 빅데이터 기반 수산생태계 변동 예측 기술 개발 연구를 추진하고 있다. 우리
나라 수산생태계 변동에 4차산업혁 핵심기술을 점차적으로 확대해 감에 따라 시시각각 변화하는
바다의 움직임을 신속히 파악하고 예측이 가능할 것으로 보인다. 또한 해양안보 관련 연구를 수
행하는 기관의 데이터를 공유할 수 있다면 진정한 빅데이터를 기반으로 한 기관 고유의 업무의
정확도가 높아질 것이며, 이러한 빅데이터는 인공지능기술 도입의 견인차가 될 것으로 기대된다.
2018 한국수리생물학회 24 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
분석에서 예측까지, 수학으로 풀어가는 지진의 세계
박순천
기상청
지진으로 땅이 흔들렸을 때 가장 먼저 알고 싶어하는 것은 어디서, 얼마나 큰 지진이 발생했느
냐 하는 것이다. 지진이 발생한 위치인 진앙은 최소 3개의 관측소에 기록된 지진파 중 P파와 S파
의 시간차를 이용해 관측점으로부터의 거리를 계산하여 그 거리를 반경으로 하는 세 원의 교차점
으로 구한다. 이러한 단순한 원리도 한반도에만 200개소가 넘는 지진관측소가 설치된 요즘에는
좀더 복잡한 계산과정을 거칠 수 밖에 없다.
지진파는 지구내부를 통과하며 전파되기 때문에 지구내부의 정보를 포함히고 있다. 그 정보를
얻기 위해서 관측된 지진파 자료를 이용한 역산을 수행한다. 지구내부구조 뿐 아니라 지진을 일
으킨 단층에서의 복잡한 운동과정도 알 수 있다.
최근 우리나라를 비롯한 여러나라에서 지진파의 아주 짧은 부분(보통 3초)만을 이용해 지진의
위치와 규모 등을 추정하고 피해를 일으킬만한 지진일 경우 더 큰 진동이 올 것이라는 정보를 주
는 ‘지진조기경보'시스템이 운영하고 있다. 지진조기경보는 지진이 끝나기 전에 지진의 규모를 예
측하고 그로 인한 진동의 세기를 예측해야 하기 때문에 전통적인 지진 분석 방법과 다른 원리들
이 도입된다. 또한 신속성을 요하는만큼 정확도가 떨어질 수 있는데, 차츰 정확도를 높이기 위한
방법도 요구되는 상황이다.
이와 같은 문제들을 풀어가는데 다양한 수학원리가 사용되는데, 이번 발표에서는 그 예를 간단
히 소개하고자 한다. 또한 지진과 관련한 현상인 지진해일(쓰나미)와 화산 연구에 수학이 사용되
는 사례에 대해서도 간단히 언급하고자 한다.
2018 한국수리생물학회 25 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
자료동화기법을 적용한 한국해양과학기술원의 해양/기후 예측
진현근, 김영호
해양순환 기후연구센터, 한국해양과학기술원
수치모델의 예측자료는 실제 자연현상의 발생하는 모든 물리과정을 포괄하지 못할 뿐만 아니라,
초기자료에 내재된 불확실성으로 인해 오차가 발생한다. 자료동화기법은 이러한 모델 에러를 개
선하기 위해 양질의 초기자료를 목표로 한다. 자료동화는 초기 추정치와 관측결과를 이용하여 통
계적으로 최적화된 초기값을 제공하는 것으로, OI, 3D-VAR, 4D-VAR, EnKF, EnOI등 여러 가지 기법
이 존재한다. OI와 3D-VAR는 연산량이 적은 대신 해류에 의존하는 배경오차공분산을 고려할 수
없는 반면, 4D-VAR나 EnKF는 과도한 전산자원을 요구하여 실시간 예측시스템에 적용하기에 한계
를 가지고 있다. EnOI의 경우, 상대적으로 적은 연산 자원을 사용함에도 불구하고 EnKF와 유사한
좋은 결과를 제시해준다. 반면, EnOI (Ensemble Optimal Interpolation) 기법은 EnKF 등 다른 자료동화
기법에 비해 전산자원을 적게 사용하며, 과거 모델의 모의결과로부터 해류에 의존하는 배경오차
공분산을 추정하기 때문에 비용대비 성능이 우수한 장점이 있다 (Evensen, 2003; Oke et al., 2007).
한국해양과학기술원에서는 실시간 예측시스템을 구축하기 위하여 EnOI에 기반한 해양자료동화
시스템을 구축하였으며 이를 전지구 수치모델 및 북서태평양 지역모델에 적용하였다. 이를 이용
하여 전지구 기후재분석 자료과 실시간 기후예측시스템 그리고 실시간 북서태평양 고해상도 해양
예측시스템을 구축할 수 있었다.
이 연구에서는 EnOI를 적용한 한국해양과학기술원의 해양자료동화 시스템을 소개하고, 자료동
화를 적용한 기후예측과 지역해양예측 시스템의 성능에 대해 논하고자 한다. 이를 위해서 타기관
의 기존 결과 및 관측자료와의 비교 검증을 수행하였으며 결과적으로 한국해양과학기술원의 기후
예측 그리고 지역해양예측시스템이 비용에 비해 높은 성능을 보유한 것으로 평가하였다.
REFERENCES [1] G. Evensen, The Ensemble Kalman Filter, theoretical formulation and practical implementation, Ocean
Dynamics; 53, 343-367 (2003)
[2] P. R. Oke, P. Sakov, and S. R. Corney, Impacts of localisation in the EnKF and EnOI: Experiments with a small
model, Ocean Dyn., 57, 32–45 (2007)
2018 한국수리생물학회 26 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Session A1
Ecological Modeling for Invasive Species
Organizer: 박영석 (경희대학교)
Date/Time: 6월 29일(금) 09:00
Speakers:
1. 최원일 (국립산림과학원)
2. Daisuke Takahashi (Kyung Hee University)
3. Seungwoo Sim (National Institute of Ecology)
4. 최동희 (국립생태원)
5. 이대성 (경희대학교)
2018 한국수리생물학회 27 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
국내 주요 외래 산림 해충과 수리 모델
최원일, 강성혁
난대아열대산림연구소, 국립산림과학원
국내 주요 산림해충인 솔잎혹파리, 소나무재선충병, 솔껍질깍지벌레, 꽃매미, 아까시잎혹파리 등
은 외래종이다. 외래종은 새로운 서식처에 유입된 후 정착, 확산 과정을 통해 토착화된다. 외래종
을 효율적으로 관리하기 위해서는 확산과정과 이들의 밀도를 조절하는 생물적, 환경적 요인에 대
한 분석이 필요하다. 정량적인 자료분석에 근거한 수리모델은 외래종 관리를 위한 유용한 도구가
될 수 있다. 본 발표에서는 국내 주요 외래산림해충의 확산과정, 생물적 또는 환경적 요인이 외래
종 밀도변화에 미치는 영향, 외래산림해충 발생위험도에 대한 주요 연구결과를 소개하고 이러한
수리모델을 활용한 외래종 관리전략을 제시하고자 한다.
REFERENCES
[1] W. I. Choi, H. J. Song, D. S. Kim, D.S. Lee, C.-Y. Lee, Y. Nam, J.-B. Kim and Y.-S. Park. Dispersal patterns
of pine wilt disease in the early stage of its invasion in South Korea. Forests 8, 411 (2017)
[2] W. I. Choi, M.-J. Jeon and Y.-S. Park. Structural Dynamics in Host-Parasitoid System of Pine Needle Gall
Midge, Thecodiplosis japonensis, over Invasion Process. PeerJ 5:e3610 (2017)
[3] Y. Nam, S.-H. Koh, S.-J. Jeon, Y.-S. Park and W. I. Choi. Assessment of environmental factors affecting
occurrence of black pine bast scale, Matsucoccus thunbergianae in west coastal disaster prevention forests of
South Korea. Ecological informatics 29, 206-213 (2015)
[4] Choi, W.I. and Park, Y.-S. Dispersal pattern of exotic forest pest in South Korea. Insect Science 19: 535-548
(2012)
2018 한국수리생물학회 28 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Dispersal of invasive species and their regional–population dynamics
Daisuke Takahashi1,2 and Young-Seuk Park1
1 Kyung Hee University, Seoul, Korea
2 Incheon National University, Incheon, Korea
Invasive species have been considered as one of the biodiversity threats in ecological
conservations. Not only losing local–species diversity, those invasive species can result in
economic loss as agricultural pests or causing public–health issues. Species invasions have also
attracted studies as model cases of fundamental ecological processes, e.g., species assemblages.
A notable property discriminating invasive species from other alien species is their rapid range
extensions and rapid growths of regional–population sizes. These rapid dynamics are supported
by their dispersal abilities. Theoretical studies analyzing dispersal–kernel functions, i.e.,
distributions of dispersal–end points, have related the shape of the kernel functions and
expected range–extension dynamics. On this presentation, we briefly summarize theories about
invader dispersals, and derive how local–population extension and long–distance dispersals
determine regional–population dynamics using a simple theoretical model.
2018 한국수리생물학회 29 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
An attempt to simulate the population dynamics of
Spartina spp. in Korea
Seungwoo Sim1,2), Daisuke Takahashi2), Donghee Choi1,2), Nam-Young Kim1),
Tae-Bok Ryu1), Deok-Ki Kim1), Tae-Soo Chon3), Haeryong Song1) and Eun-Jin Park1)
1) Bureau of Ecological Research, National Institute of Ecology
2) Department of Biology, Kyung-Hee University
3) Ecology & Future Research Association
Spartina spp. refer to perennial cordgrass living in intertidal zones. After first identification at
the coasts of Southern England, they have been rapidly spread to many parts of the world via
ocean current, increasing marine transportations, or sometimes artificial introduction for
shoreline protection or coastal reclamation. Currently, they are often regarded as one of the
harmful plants because they disturb indigenous ecosystem in terms of resource use and nutrient
cycling. Moreover, it is considerably difficult to remove the species completely once they
dominate some areas due to their strong reproductivity and high growth speed. In this study,
we present a simple model to simulate the population dynamics of S. anglica based on
ecological properties of the species. In particular, both of vegetative growth and seed
propagation were considered to predict the growth and dispersal of the colonies. Although our
model is based on the small monitoring site on the western coast of Korean peninsula with a
relatively short-time scale, the approaches used in this study suggest the possibility of
application in the extended range of temporal and spatial scale.
2018 한국수리생물학회 30 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Landoltia punctata의 국내 분포현황 및 확산 가능성 검토
최동희 1,2, 이대성 1, 박영석 1, 김남영 2, 류태복 2, 이중효 2
1. 경희대학교 생물학과
2. 국립생태원 생태보전연구실
본 연구에서는 Landoltia punctata의 국내 분포 현황을 파악하고 확산 가능성을 검토하였다. L.
punctata는 남아시아 원산 개구리밥과의 부유식물이다. 영양염류가 풍부하고 흐름이 정체된 습지
에서 빠르게 번식하여 수면을 피복하며, 빠른 번식으로 인한 생물다양성 감소와 습지 생태계 기
능 저하의 위험이 평가되어 위해우려종으로 지정되었다. 2012년 처음으로 제주도에 서식하는 것이
보고되었고, 물새에 의해 분포확산이 가능한 것으로 알려져 있다. 2016년 12월부터 2018년 1월까
지 제주도 내 168개 습지를 조사한 결과 24개 지점에서 L. punctata 개체군이 확인되었다. L.
punctata 분포지역은 해발고도 300m 이하, 사면경사 15˚ 이하의 지역이었다. 확산 가능성을 평가하
기 위해 random forest 기법을 이용한 종분포모형을 적용하였다. 제주도 내 습지 중 현재 L.
punctata 분포 지역과 유사한 환경의 습지가 많아, 건기 시 일정량 이상의 수량이 유지되는 흐름
이 약한 습지에 물새의 활동 범위를 따라 확산이 가능할 것으로 보인다.
2018 한국수리생물학회 31 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
미국선녀벌레(Metcalfa pruinosa)의 국내 발생 특성 분석 및
위험도 평가
이대성 1), 박영석 2)
1)경희대학교 생물학과
2)경희대학교 나노의약생명과학과 1)[email protected]
신북구지역(Nearctic ecozone)이 기원인 미국선녀벌레(Metcalfa pruinosa)는 노린재목, 선녀벌레과에
속하며 산림 및 농작물에 직간접적으로 피해를 주는 해충이다. 1979년 이탈리아를 시작으로 유럽
전역으로 확산되어 나갔으며, 1991년 크로아티아, 2001년 체코에서 발견되는 등 그 확산 범위는 지
속적으로 증가하고 있다. 국내의 경우, 2009년 서울, 경기, 경남 지역에서 첫 발견 이후 매년 발생
및 피해면적이 증가하여 2016년 9개 시도, 60개 시군에서 발생하였다. 본 연구에서는 국내 서식하
는 미국선녀벌레 서식지의 환경 특성을 분석하고, 이를 기반으로 전국 단위로 미국선녀벌레의 발
생 위험도를 모의하였다. 이를 위해 전국적인 미국선녀벌레 발생지 정보를 종합하고, 각 환경 변
수 별 특징을 분석 후 종분포 모델을 이용해 발생위험도를 평가하였다. 연구 결과, 미국선녀벌레
의 확산은 도로와 최저기온이 크게 영향을 미치며, 미국선녀벌레는 현재 관찰된 지역보다 더욱
많은 지역에서 발생이 가능하며, 기후변화에 따라 그 발생 범위는 전국적으로 더욱 넓어졌다. 본
연구의 결과는 미국선녀벌레의 발생 및 확산에 대한 생태학적 정보를 제공하며 미국선녀벌레의
효율적인 예찰 및 방제 방안 마련에 있어 기본 자료로서 기여할 것으로 기대된다.
2018 한국수리생물학회 32 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Session A2
동물질병 관리와 수리역학
Organizer: 윤하정 (농림축산검역본부 역학조사과)
Date/Time: 6월 29일(금) 09:00
Speakers:
1. 김으뜸 (강원대학교 수의과대학 동물의학종합연구소)
2. 유대성 (농림축산검역본부 역학조사과)
3. 민경덕 (서울대학교 보건대학원)
4. 장아름 (KT Big-Data 사업지원단)
5. 조기필 (부산대학교 빅데이터 기반 금융·수산·제조 혁신 산업 수학센터)
6. 윤하정 (농림축산검역본부 역학조사과)
2018 한국수리생물학회 33 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Boosted Regression Tree 모형을 이용한 2003-2016
고병원성 조류인플루엔자 발생 위험요인 추정: 예비 결과
김으뜸, 박선일
강원대학교 수의과대학 동물의학종합연구소
국내 고병원성 조류인플루엔자(highly pathogenic avian influenza, HPAI) 발생은 2003년 이후로
2006/2007년, 2008년, 2010/2011년, 2014/16년, 2016/2017년, 2018년 등 총 7회에 걸쳐 발생하였다. 현행
조류인플루엔자 예찰은 철새도래지 내 야생조류의 질병 감염여부, 가금시장 내 감수성 개체의 질
병 감염여부 및 도계장 내 검사 등을 중심으로 이루어지고 있으나 역학적 연구를 통한 HPAI 발
생 위험요인에 관한 연구는 부족한 실정이다. 이에 본 연구는 2003년부터 2016년까지 국내에서
발생한 HPAI 역학정보를 바탕으로 Boosted Regression Tree 모형을 이용하여 질병 발생 위험요인을
추정하였다. 분석에 사용한 HPAI 역학정보는 다음과 같다. HPAI 발생건수, 가금농가수, 가금사육
두수, 가금사육밀도, 가금농가면적, 2014 야생조류 수, 가금농가 간 최근린 평균거리, 2013 가축분뇨
발생량, 2014 가축분뇨 발생량, 개별 가축분뇨처리시설 수, 위탁 가축분뇨처리시설 수, 2015 가금농
가 관련 차량 이동 빈도수. Boosted Regression Tree 모형에 있어 시 또는 군별 HPAI 발생여부를 종
속변수로 하였으며, 그 외 역학정보를 독립변수로 지정하였다. 분석 결과 모형의 평균 전체 편차
(deviance)는 1.275였으며 평균 잔차 편차(residual deviance)는 0.849였다. 모형의 receiver operating
characteristics 스코어는 0.911였다. HPAI 발생 요인별 상대적 기여도(relative contribution)은 가금사육
두수 0.259, 2014 가축분뇨 발생량 0.112, 가금농가면적 0.107, 가금농가 관련 차량 이동 빈도수
0.099, 위탁 가축분뇨처리시설 수 0.097, 가금농가 간 최근린 평균거리 0.074, 가금사육밀도 0.064,
가금농가수 0.052, 개별 가축분뇨처리시설 수 0.045, 2014 야생조류 수 0.043, 2013 가축분뇨 발생량
0.003 등으로 나타났다. 본 예비 결과는 분석 당시 이용 가능한 HPAI 발생 관련 역학정보를 바탕
으로 추정된 것이며, 추후 연구를 통해 야생조류 내 고병원성/저병원성 조류인플루엔자 감염개체
수, 시 또는 군 별 도계장 수, 철새도래지 수 등의 요인을 추가하여 분석할 예정이다. 본 연구는
정보통신기술진흥센터의 지원으로 수행하였다(과제번호: 2018-0-00430).
2018 한국수리생물학회 34 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
MaxEnt을 이용한 대한민국의 고병원성조류인플루엔자
감염가능 가금농장의 분포 추정
유대성, 이광녕, 조기현, 홍성근, 윤하정, 손한모
농림축산검역본부 역학조사과
가금농장에서 고병원성조류인플루엔자(Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza; 이하 HPAI) 감염은 국내
에 2002년 이후 7차례, 서로 다른 3가지 타입의 바이러스에 의해서 일어났으나 지리적으로 서해
안의 평야지대와 습지, 수원지가 가까운 지역에서 발생이 반복되어 나타났다. MaxEnt 모델은
Maximum entropy 모델을 일컫는 말로 2006년 Phillips에 개발되어 다양한 분야에 활용되며, 특히
야생동물의 서식 분포를 추정하는데 많이 이용되고 있다. 이 모델은 서식지의 환경적 특징(수원지
거리, 경사도, 기온 분포 등)을 가지고 분포를 추정하며, 기존의 여러 통계적 추정 방법과 달리
presence 데이터 만을 가지고 서식 분포를 추정하여, 야생동물 분포 데이터처럼 지리적으로 분포
하지 않은 absence 포인트 데이터가 없는 연구에서 분포를 추정할 때 활용될 수 있다. 본 연구자
는 이에 따라 HPAI 발생한 가금농장의 포인트 데이터를 일종의 presence 데이터로 보고, 2002년
이후부터 2018년까지 발생한 HPAI에 대한 지리적 분포를 수원지 거리, 농경지 비율, 해발고도, 철
새도래지와 거리 등의 환경변수를 가지고 MaxEnt 모델을 이용해서 추정하였고, 이를 기존의 통계
적 방법과 ROC curve AUC 값을 이용해서 비교해 보았다.
2018 한국수리생물학회 35 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Effect of rodent diversity on bovine tuberculosis in Korea
민경덕
Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University
소 결핵병은 Mycobacterium bovis 에 의해 발생하는 만성감염병으로 1940년 피내검사 시행 이후
급격히 발생률이 낮아졌지만, 완전히 근절되지 못하고, 지속적으로 문제가 되고 있으며 최근에는
발생건수가 증가하고 있는 추세이다 (2000년도 발생건수 149건, 2017년에는 443건). 백신이 개발되
지 않은 소결핵병의 경우, 차단방역이 가장 중요한 관리전략이며, 이에 따라 결핵감염우와 야생동
물로부터의 차단방역이 중요하다. 현재까지 밝혀진 주요 야생동물 보유숙주로는 사슴, 멧돼지, 오
소리, 주머니 쥐가 있으며 [1], 설치류에서는 실험적 모델로서의 연구가 주로 진행되었지만 [2], 전
파 매개체로서의 역학 연구는 드물다. 이에 본 연구에서는 설치류의 소결핵병 전파의 잠재성 가
능성을 살펴보고자 한다. 본 연구는 농림축산검역본부 국가동물방역시스템(KAHIS)으로부터 제공
받은 2017년 젖소에서의 소결핵병 발생농가 시군구 발생률을 결과변수로 하였고, 국립생태원의
자연환경조사자료로부터 설치류 출현종수를 주요 설명변수로 하였다. 보정변수로는 식생지수, 평
균온도, 고도, 재정자립도를 활용하였고, R v3.5.0 을 활용하여 포아송 회귀분석을 실시하였다. 보정
변수를 포함시키지 않은 모형에서는 설치류 출현종수의 상대위험도는 1.179 (95% CI 0.979 – 1.423),
보정변수를 모두 포함시킨 모형에서는 1.284 (95% CI 1.020 – 1.637)로 나타났다. 본 결과는 설치류의
방역이 소결핵병 발생 예방에도 효과가 있을 수 있다는 것을 시사하며, 향후 species distribution
modelling 등 좀 더 정밀한 방식으로 설치류의 출현가능성을 모형화할 필요가 있다.
REFERENCES
[1] Michel AL, Muller B, Helden PDv. Mycobacterium bovis at the animal–human interface: A problem, or
not? Veterinary Microbiology. 2010; 140:371–81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vetmic.2009.08.029 PMID:
19773134
[2] Dong, H., Lv, Y., Sreevatsan, S., Zhao, D., & Zhou, X. (2017). Differences in pathogenicity of three animal
isolates of Mycobacterium species in a mouse model. PloS one, 12(8), e0183666.
2018 한국수리생물학회 36 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
딥러닝 모델을 적용한 조류인플루엔자 위험농장 예측사례
장아름1, 윤하정2, 김재석1, 이광녕2, 김경숙2, 조기현2, 홍성근2, 고훈석1, 정충식2, 손한모2
1㈜KT BigData 사업지원단, 2농림축산검역본부 역학조사과
2016년말부터 2017년에 상반기까지 419건이 발생하며, 우리나라 가금산업에 막대한 피해를 주
었던 고병원성조류인플루엔자(HPAI)가 2017년 말~2018년 초 겨울철에는 22건의 발생으로 큰폭으
로 감소하였으며, 특히 평창 동계 올림픽 기간에는 단 1건도 발생하지 않았다. 이는 농림축산검역
본부의 국가가축방역통합시스템(KAHIS)의 데이터와 ㈜KT의 빅데이터 기술이 융합된 성과이다.
이 연구에서는 ㈜KT와 농림축산검역본부가 협업으로 개발하여 구축한 빅데이터 기반 방역조치
의사결정 지원 시스템과 HPAI 발생시 확산위험 농장에 대한 위험도 평가를 위해 활용하는 딥러
닝 모델을 소개하고자 한다.
REFERENCES
[1] D. Barrett, The potential for Big Data in Animal Disease Surveillance in Ireland, Frontiers in Veterinary
Science, 4, 150 (2017)
[2] K. VanderWaal et al., Translating Big Data into Smart Data for Veterinary Epidemiology. , Frontiers in
Veterinary Science, 4, 110 (2017)
2018 한국수리생물학회 37 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Risk assessment of HPAI transmission for poultry farms by
livestock transport vehicle movement
Giphil Cho1, Seong-Uk Nam1, Hachung Yoon2, Kwang-Nyeong Lee2, and Hyun-Min Kim1
1Finance Fishery Manufacture Industrial Mathematics Center on Big Data, Pusan National University
2Veterinary Epidemiology Division, Animal and Plant Quarantine Agency
HPAI(Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza) is an epidemic of high virulence among AI(Avian
Influenza), which can cause some problems, such as the enormous losses in economics and the
possibility to infect the human being. We propose a model to estimate risk probability of HPAI
being transmitted to the farms by livestock transport vehicle movement. To estimate the risk
probability, we initialized the probability of HPAI transmission on farms, estimated weights of
density and accessibility, and calculated the cumulative risk probabilities of farms over time as
livestock transport vehicle movement. As a result, we can propose an abatement strategy based
on the risk probability calculated by our model.
REFERENCES
[1] 송창선 외 3인, 국내외 환경 중 야생조류 인플루엔자 바이러스 거동예측 연구, 국립환경과학
원 (2017)
[2] L. Page, S. Brin, R. Motwani and T. Winograd, The PageRank citation ranking: bringing order to the web
(1999)
[3] B. Silverman, Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis. London: Chapman and Hall (1986)
2018 한국수리생물학회 38 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
구제역 상시 백신 접종상황에서 농장내 구제역 바이러스
확산 양상에 대한 수리모델
윤하정1, 이창형2, 김필원2, 최용인2, 이효정2, 박종오2, 김슬기2, 이광녕1, 손한모1
1농림축산검역본부 역학조사과, 2울산과학기술원 수리과학과
2010년 12월 이후 우리나라에서는 구제역 예방접종을 실시하고 있으며, 2018년 5월 현재 국내에
서 사육되는 소, 돼지, 염소에 대하여 구제역 예방접종을 의무적으로 시행하고 있다. 구제역 예방
접종을 실시한 경우 항체양성률이 소는 검사두수의 80% 이상, 염소 및 번식용 돼지는 60% 이상,
육성용 돼지는 30% 이상 유지되어야 하며, 혈청검사를 통해 이를 확인하고 있다. 이 연구에서는
구제역 예방접종을 실시하는 상황에서 우제류 가축이 구제역 바이러스에 노출되었을 때 농장내
전파 양상을 수리모델로 표현한 시뮬레이션 결과를 다룬다.
REFERENCES
[1] T.G. Rawdon et al., Evaluating Vaccination Strategies to Control Foot-and-Mouth Disease: a Country
Comparison Study. Epidemiology Infection, 22:1-13(2018)
[2] T. Porphyre et al., Assessing the Economic Impact of Availability When Controlling Foot and Mouth Disease
Outbreaks. Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 5, 47 (2018)
2018 한국수리생물학회 39 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Session A3
When Math Meets Brain
Organizer: 김재경 (KAIST)
Date/Time: 6월 29일(금) 09:00
Speakers:
1. Choongseok Park (North Carolina A&T State University)
2. Sat Byul Seo (Kyungnam University)
3. Dae Wook Kim (KAIST)
4. Eui Min Jeong (KAIST)
5. Seokjoo Chae (KAIST)
2018 한국수리생물학회 40 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Social Status-Dependent Shift in Neural Circuit Activation
Affects Decision Making
Choongseok Park
Department of Mathematics, North Carolina A&T State University
In a social group, animals make behavioral decisions that fit their social ranks. These behavioral
choices are dependent on the various social cues experienced during social interactions. In
vertebrates, little is known of how social status affects the underlying neural mechanisms
regulating decision-making circuits that drive competing behaviors. Here, we demonstrate that
social status in zebrafish (Danio rerio) influences behavioral decisions by shifting the balance
in neural circuit activation between two competing networks (escape and swim). We show that
socially dominant animals enhance activation of the swim circuit. Conversely, social
subordinates display a decreased activation of the swim circuit, but an enhanced activation of
the escape circuit. In an effort to understand how social status mediates these effects, we
constructed a neurocomputational model of the escape and swim circuits. The model replicates
our findings and suggests that social status?related shift in circuit dynamics could be mediated
by changes in the relative excitability of the escape and swim networks. Together, our results
reveal that changes in the excitabilities of the Mauthner command neuron for escape and the
inhibitory interneurons that regulate swimming provide a cellular mechanism for the nervous
system to adapt to changes in social conditions by permitting the animal to select a socially
appropriate behavioral response.
REFERENCES
[1] Miller TH, Clements K, Ahn S, Park C, Ji HE, Issa FA. “Social status-dependent shift in neural circuit activation affects
decision making.” J Neurosci. 2017 Feb 22;37(8):2137-2148.
2018 한국수리생물학회 41 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
A Mathematical Model of Synaptic Transmission for Independent
Currents
Sat byul Seo
Department of Mathematis Eucation, Kyungnam University
Synapse plays a key role of communication in our brain. Presynaptic terminals release
neurotransmitters either in response to action potential or spontaneously independent of
presynaptic activity. Spontaneous neurotransmission has an independent role in neuronal
communication that is distinct from that of evoked release. However, the process of
spontaneous neurotransmitter release is still unclear. We develop a mathematical model in 3-D
to emulate spontaneous and evoked neurotransmissions resulted from glutamate release within
a single synapse. In order to identify the spatial relation between spontaneous and evoked
glutamate releases, we consider quantitative factors, such as the size of synapses,
inhomogeneity of diffusion coefficients, the geometry of synaptic cleft, and the release rate of
neurotransmitter, that will affect postsynaptic currents. We conclude quantitatively when a
synaptic size is larger, the cleft space is less diffusive in the central area than the edge area, if
the geometry synaptic cleft has a narrower gap in the center and if glutamate release is slower,
then there is a better chance for independence of two modes of currents from spontaneous and
evoked release. The computed results match well with existing experimental findings and
provide a quantitative map of boundaries of physical constraints for having independent
synaptic fusion events.
2018 한국수리생물학회 42 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Pharmacomanipulation of circadian rhythms in non-human
primates: development of model-based precision medicine
Dae Wook Kim1, Cheng Chang2,*, Xian Chen3, Aangela Doran4, Francois Gaudreault5, Travis Wager6,
George J. DeMarco7 and Jae Kyoung Kim1,*
1) Department of Mathematics, Korean Advanced Institute of Science and Technology,
2) Systems Modeling and Simulation Group, Pharmacokinetics, Dynamics and Metabolism, Worldwide
Research & Development, Pfizer Inc.
3) Comparative Medicine, Worldwide Research and Development, Pfizer Inc.
4) Enzymology and Transporter Group, Pharmacokinetics, Dynamics and Metabolism, Worldwide Research &
Development, Pfizer Inc.
5) Clinical Pharmacology and Pharmacometrics, Research and Development, Biogen Inc.
6) Neuroscience Research Unit, Worldwide Research & Development, Pfizer Inc.
7) Department of Animal Medicine, University of Massachusetts Medical School.
The benefit of precision medicine for circadian rhythm sleep disorders considering individual
variations in genes and environments is little known. Here, we investigate this with a CK1δ/ε
inhibitor (PF-670462), which delays circadian rhythms. Interestingly, its effect is attenuated by
environmental light exposure and we find that the attenuation occurs more strongly in diurnal
cynomolgus monkeys relative to nocturnal mice. Such a strong attenuating effect of light is
predicted to exist in humans by our systems pharmacology model based on experimental data
from primates and humans. The model also illustrates high inter-individual variations in the
effect of CK1δ/ε inhibition depending on the molecular cause of advanced sleep phase disorder,
which shows the need to adapt precision medicine to current clinical feature-based treatment.
To identify a personalized dosing regimen, which highly depends on the cause and environment,
we develop an adaptive strategy based on the patient’s past drug response.
REFERENCES [1] Florian Geier et. al., Entrainment in a Model of the Mammalian Circadian Oscillator, Journal of Biological
Rhythms (2005)
[2] Jeffrey Sprouse et. al., Inhibition of casein kinase1 ε/δ, produces phase shifts in the circadian rhythms of
Cynomolgus monkeys, Psychopharmacology, pp. 735-742 (2009)
[3] Jae Kyoung Kim et. al., Modeling and Validating Chronic Pharmacological Manipulation of Circadian
Rhythms, CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology (2013)
[4] Keijzer Henry et. al., Precision medicine in circadian rhythm sleep-wake disorders: current state and future
perspectives, Personalized Medicine, 14, 171-182 (2017)
2018 한국수리생물학회 43 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Mathematical Modeling for Pacemaker-neuron-dependent
Molecular Rhythm Alteration by Drosophila Clock Mutant
Eui Min Jeong1, Eun Joo Cho2, Miri Kwon3, Eun Young Kim3, and Jae Kyoung Kim1
1) Department of Mathematical Sciences, KAIST
2) Department of Brain Science, BK21 Plus program, Ajou University School of Medicine
3) Department of Biomedical Sciences, Ajou University School of Medicine
In Drosophila, circadian (~24h) behavior is regulated by about 150 pacemaker neurons. To
generate and maintain 24h rhythm, circadian gene expression in each pacemaker neurons is
driven by transcriptional-translational feedback loop (TTFL). In TTFL of Drosophila,
dCLOCK-CYCLE (dCLK-CYC) binds to the E-box (CACGTG) and activates the expression
of period (per) and timeless (tim). Translated PER and TIM proteins repress their own
transcription by removing dCLK-CYC dimer from the E-box. Interestingly, dCLK-Δ, which is
a mutant of dCLK deleted amino acids (AA) 657-707 region and has impaired binding with
PER, induces different effect on molecular rhythms depending on pacemaker neurons. For
oscillation of PER, amplitude is largely reduced in ventral lateral neurons (LNvs), but not in
dorsal neurons (DNs). However, how dCLK-Δ/CYC controlled TTFL operates differently in
pacemaker neurons is unclear. To investigate this unexpected phenomenon, we established the
mathematical model for the TTFL in Drosophila and predicted that pacemaker-neuron-
dependent alteration of the molecular clockwork is caused by the difference of molecular
composites between LNvs and DNs. This is confirmed by the follow up experiment. This work
shows that clockworks at the molecular level have a critical role for specific functions of each
pacemaker neurons.
REFERENCES
[1] B. Novak, and J. J. Tyson, Design principles of biochemical oscillators, Nature reviews Molecular cell biology,
Vol. 9, pp. 981-991 (2008)
[2] Y. Miyasako, Y. Umezaki, and K. Tomioka, Separate sets of cerebral clock neurons are responsible for light
and temperature entrainment of Drosophila circadian locomotor rhythms, Genes & Development, Vol 22, pp. 115-
126(2007)
[3] JK. Kim, K. Josic and MR. Bennett, The validity of quasi steady-state approximations in discrete stochastic
simulations, Biophysical Journal, 107 (2014)
[4] E. Lee, E. Cho, DH. Kang, EH. Jeong, Z.Chen, SH. Yoo, EY. Kim, Pacemaker-neuron-dependent
disturbance of the molecular clockwork by a Drosophila CLOCK mutant homologous to the mouse Clock
mutation, PNAS, Vol 113, p E4904-13 (2016)
[5] Y. Taishi, H. L. Cristiane, and H. F. Charlotte, Circadian light-input pathways in Drosophila, Zool. 195:287–
312 (2016)
[6] B. Kepsutlu, R. Kizilel, and S. Kizilel, Quantification of interactions among circadian clock proteins via
surface plasmon resonance, Journal of Molecular Recognition, Vol. 27, p458-469 (2014)
2018 한국수리생물학회 44 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Network inference of circadian clock
Seokjoo Chae1, Gosia Malgorzata Tyczynska2, and Jae Kyouong Kim1
1) Department of Mathematical Sciences, KAIST
2) Department of Applied Mathematical and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark
Presenting Author: Seokjoo Chae, [email protected]
The Mammalian circadian rhythm is governed by the principal clock which is located in the
suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN). This clock is composed of ten thousands of neurons and their
connection to one another is essential to important roles of SCN: synchronization, entrainment
to light, etc. Previous studies about the SCN network used the maximal information coefficient
(MIC) statistic to oscillating time course data during resynchronization after desynchronization
by TTX. Since this method requires desynchronization and resynchronization, it takes a long
time and the recovered structure may not be similar to the normal SCN network. Finally, even
though numerous studies argued that the connection between SCN cells are asymmetric, MIC
cannot detect directionality.
We develop our own method, which can detect causality. This method does not require
desynchronization by TTX, so it takes shorter time and one can obtain the normal network
structure of the SCN. Moreover, it is able to obtain main results of previous studies: small-
world network, exponential distribution of node degree. Finally, as our method can diagnose
causality, our method can also be used to verify the asymmetricity of the SCN.
2018 한국수리생물학회 45 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Session B1
Mathematical Models in Epidemiology and Ecology
Organizer: 이창형 (UNIST)
Date/Time: 6월 29일(금) 13:50
Speakers:
1. Tae Soo Chon (Pusan National University)
2. Sang Hee Lee (NIMS)
3. Hyojung Lee (Hokkaido University)
4. Jung Eun Kim (UNIST)
5. Soyoung Kim (Konkuk University)
2018 한국수리생물학회 46 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Community Structure and Diversity in Benthic
Macroinvertebrates in Streams in Different Spatial Scales
Nam Jung1, Gyusuk Kwak2, Yong-Hyuck Jang2, Jae-Woo Lee1, and Tae-Soo Chon2,3
1Department of Physics, Inha University, Incheon 22212 Republic of Korea 2Ecology and Future Research Institution, Busan 46241 Republic of Korea
3Department of Biological Sciences (Prof. Emeritus), Pusan National University, Busan (Pusan)
46228 Republic of Korea
Stream communities reveal variable ecological integrity across different spatial scales in
watershed areas. Benthic macroinvertebrate communities were collected by the Surber sampler
in streams in the river basins in Korea. Indicative parameters including total species number,
density and diversity were examined according to the watercourse distance and linear distance
between the sample sites. Total distance according to watercourse was twice longer than the
total linear distance. Similarity (Shannon diversity) index initially decreased (increased) until
the distance of 50 km (watercourse distance) and was stabilized until the distance of 300 km
(watercourse distance). After this distance, variance of indices abruptly increased. Kullback-
Leibler divergence presented different patterns comparing with the similarity and diversity
indices. In the watercourse distance the divergence index overall monotonically increased with
a broad range of variance. This type of increase was not observed with the linear distance and
variance of indices was characteristically in a narrow range. Suitability of community
parameters in revealing ecological integrity is further discussed for water quality
management/monitoring and ecosystem sustainability.
2018 한국수리생물학회 47 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
A New Approach to Termite Population Size Estimation Based on
Termite Tunnel Pattern Using a Convolution Neural Network
Sang-Hee Lee and Jeong-Kweon Seo
3Division of Integrated Mathematics, National Institute for Mathematical Sciences
In this study, we proposed a new idea to estimate termite population size. To this end, we built
an agent-based model to simulate termite tunneling behavior. Using this model, we made
simulated tunnel patterns that are determined by three variables: the number of simulated
termites (N), the passing probability of two encountering termites (P), and the distance that
termites move soil parcels (D). To explore whether the N value can be estimated with a partial
termite tunnel pattern, we generated four groups of tunnel patterns that are partially obscured
in complete tunnel pattern image: (1) A pattern group in which the outer area of the tunnel
pattern is obscured (I-pattern), (2) a pattern group in which half of the tunnel pattern is obscured
(H-pattern), (3) a pattern group in which the inner region of the tunnel pattern is obscured (O-
pattern), and (4) a pattern group combining I- and O-pattern (IO-pattern). For each group, 80%
of the tunnel patterns were learned through a convolution neural network (CNN) and the
remaining 20% of the patterns were used for estimating N value. The estimation results showed
that the N estimates for the IO-pattern are the most accurate and are in the order I-, H-, and O-
patterns. This means that the termite population size can be estimated based on tunnel
information near the center of the colony. We briefly discussed the issues that need to be
overcome in order for the proposed idea to be applied to actual termite colonies.
2018 한국수리생물학회 48 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Determination of the End of the Ebola Virus Disease in West
Africa with Sexual Transmission
Hyojung Lee and Hiroshi Nishiura
Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University
The end of an epidemic has a substantial impact on the healthcare system and control strategies
as well as economics activities of international travel and trade. World Health Organization
(WHO) suggested waiting for 42 days since the last confirmed case tested negative twice to
declare the end of outbreak. However, there have been erroneous declarations of Ebola Virus
Disease (EVD) in West Africa, 2015-16 due to the unexpected recrudescent events partly
caused by sexual transmission from Ebola survivors [1]. Sexual transmission elevates the risk
of re-emergence of EVD because the viral RNA can persist in the semen even 9 months. The
main purpose of this study is to offer a more objective to determining the time to declare. We
propose the model accounting for sexual transmission and under-ascertainment based on [2].
Then, the probability of the end of an EVD is compared to those adhering to the 42-day waiting
period derived from WHO. Finally, we investigate how much the risk of sexual transmission
and epidemiological important factors influences in determining the objectively appropriate
time to declare free of Ebola transmission.
REFERENCES
[1] H. Lee and H. Nishiura, Recrudescence of Ebola virus disease outbreak in West Africa, 2014-2016,
International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 64, 90-92 (2017)
[1] H. Nishiura, Y. Miyamatsu and K. Mizumoto, Objective determination of end of MERS outbreak, South
Korea, 2015, Emerg Infect Dis, 22, 146-148 (2016)
2018 한국수리생물학회 49 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Effects of climate change on Plasmodium vivax malaria
transmission dynamics
Jung Eun Kim, Yongin Choi and Chang Hyeong Lee
Department of Mathematical Sciences, UNIST
Malaria is a major public health concern and an economic burden around the world. Every year
more than 200 million cases of malaria are reported and more than US$2 billion has been
invested in malaria control. Recent climate change caused by global warming has affected the
pattern of malaria outbreak and expanded the endemic regions. We developed a malaria
transmission model associated with climate-dependent parameters. We analyzed the impact of
climate change on malaria transmission using climate data based on Representative
Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Our region of focus is the northern part of South
Korea where Plasmodium vivax malaria is currently endemic. Our results show that climate
change will increase the risk of massive malaria outbreaks in the area. Furthermore, based on
the actual incidence data, we estimate the parameter values that reflect the level of controls
implemented recently in Korea. We found that the current level of controls is not sufficient to
mitigate the effect of climate change on malaria outbreaks and a combination of stronger
control measures should be implemented to reduce the risk of malaria outbreaks.
REFERENCES
[1] Y.-M. Kim, J.-W. Park, H.-K. Cheong, Estimated effect of climatic variables on the transmission of
plasmodium vivax malaria in the republic of Korea, Environmental health perspectives, 120, 1314 (2012)
[2] K. Okuneye, A. B. Gumel, Analysis of a temperature-and rainfall- dependent model for malaria transmission
dynamics, Mathematical biosciences, 287, 72–92 (2017) [3] T. M. Lunde, M. N. Bayoh, B. Lindtjørn, How malaria models relate temperature to malaria transmission,
Parasites & vectors, 6, 20 (2013)
[4] P. E. Parham, E. Michael, Modeling the effects of weather and climate change on malaria transmission,
Environmental health perspectives 118, 620, (2010)
2018 한국수리생물학회 50 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
A Dynamic Model and Control strategies of Tuberculosis
in the Philippines
Soyoung Kim1, Aurelio A. de los Reyes V2 and Eunok Jung1*
1Department of Mathematics, Konkuk University
2Institute of Mathematics, University of the Philippines Diliman *[email protected]
In this talk, a mathematical Tuberculosis (TB) model in the Philippine will be presented. Based
on the estimated parameters, different control strategies such as distancing, latent case finding,
case holding, active case finding controls, and combinations thereof are investigated. Optimal
control theory is used for suggesting the best intervention strategy reducing the number of high-
risk latent and infectious TB patients with minimum costs. Results suggest that distancing
control is the most efficient control strategy when a single intervention is utilized. We suggest
that enhancing active case finding control instead of case holding control together with
distancing and latent case finding control has significant potential for curtailing the spread of
TB in the Philippines.
REFERENCES
[1] Kim, S., Aurelio, A., & Jung, E. (2018). Mathematical model and intervention strategies for mitigating
tuberculosis in the Philippines. Journal of theoretical biology, 443, 100-112.
2018 한국수리생물학회 51 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Session B2
생물 의학 영상에서의 수학
Organizer: 문성환 (경북대학교)
Date/Time: 6월 29일(금) 13:50
Speakers:
1. Sunghwan Moon (경북대학교)
2. Jaeseong Jang (NIMS)
3. Kiwoon Kwon (동국대학교)
4. Soo Mee Kim (KIOST)
2018 한국수리생물학회 52 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Integral transforms arising in several types of computerized
tomography
Sunghwan Moon
Department of Mathematics, Kyungpook National Univeristy
Computerized tomography obtains an image by mathematical processing of measured data. In
the simplest cases, this amounts to reconstructing a function from its line or plane integrals.
Radon transform, an integral transform that maps a given function into its integrals over
hyperplanes, was introduced in 1917 by J. Radon.
Photoacoustic tomography brings about the spherical Radon transform. In this talk, we will
study the mathematical properties of the Radon transform and present inversion formulas and
numerical-simulation results of the spherical Radon transforms.
2018 한국수리생물학회 53 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Industrial mathematics and deep learning in ultrasound imaging
Jaeseong Jang
National Institute for Mathematical Sciences(NIMS)
Ultrasound imaging has been widely used for visualizing internal anatomy through a non-
invasive way. Although there have been the technology progresses, there are still rooms for
image quality improvement, faster and accurate imaging, and advanced functional imaging
modes. In order to satisfy those demands, mathematics should be used properly and effectively
in ultrasound imaging. On the other hand, deep learning attract attention due to its superior
performance and various applications. The applications are expanded to automatic diagnosis
in ultrasound imaging and shows their feasibility in diagnostic sites. In this talk, we introduce
contributions of mathematics and challenging issues in ultrasound imaging, and our
applications of deep learning for automatic diagnosis in ultrasound imaging.
2018 한국수리생물학회 54 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Mathematics in skin cancer diagnosis
Kiwoon Kwon
Department of Mathematics, Dongguk University
The medical community currently employs the ABCD (asymmetry, border irregularity, color
variegation, and diameter of the lesion) criteria in the early diagnosis of a malignant melanoma.
Although many image segmentation and classification methods are used to analyze the ABCD
criteria, it is rare to see a study containing mathematical justification of the parameters that are
used to quantify the ABCD criteria. In this paper, we suggest new parameters to assess
asymmetry, border irregularity, and color variegation, and explain the mathematical meaning
of the parameters. The suggested parameters are then tested with 24 skin samples and compared
to other recent approaches.
2018 한국수리생물학회 55 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Mathematical approaches for radiation imaging
Soo Mee Kim
Korea Institute of Ocean Science & Technology
방사선 영상화 기법은 방사선과 물질 간의 상호작용하는 물리적 현상을 이용하여 관심대상의 내
부 사진을 비침습적으로 제공하며 의료, 보안 및 산업 분야에 널리 사용되고 있습니다. 방사선 영
상화를 위하여 방사선을 검출하는 하드웨어 시스템과 검출된 방사선 신호를 영상으로 복원하는
소프트웨어 시스템이 필수적입니다.
소프트웨어 시스템의 주요 기능은 검출된 신호로부터 방사선 영상을 복원하는 것이며 이를 위하
여 방사선의 물리적 검출과정에 대한 확률모델 및 확률모델을 기반으로 역문제를 푸는 수학적 기
법이 필요합니다.
본 발표에서는 다양한 방사선 영상시스템 (컴프턴카메라, 소동물용 PET, 저선량 Xray CT)을 소개
하며 각 시스템의 검출원리 및 제한된 성능을 개선하는 수학적 영상처리기법을 소개합니다.
2018 한국수리생물학회 56 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Session B3
Mathematical Modeling for microRNA-mediated
epigenetic regulation of gene expression
Organizer: 송승규 (가톨릭관동대학교)
Date/Time: 6월 29일(금) 13:50
Speakers:
1. Woon Yong Jung (가톨릭관동대학교)
2. Yong Keun Park (가톨릭관동대학교)
3. Sung Kyu Song (가톨릭관동대학교)
2018 한국수리생물학회 57 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Mathematical Model for Combinatorial Regulation of miR-9 and miR-23a on Hes1
Expression Revealing Irreversible Bistability during Neuronal Differentiation
Min Geun Park a, Yong Keun Park a, Sung Kyu Song a and Woon Yong Jung b
aDepartment of Surgery
bDepartment of Pathology
Catholic Kwandong University International St. Mary’s Hospital
Catholic Kwandong University College of Medicine
Hes1 protein, inhibiting neuronal differentiation of embryonic stem cells by suppressing Notch
signaling, has been used as an indicator of neuronal differentiation [1]. MiR-9, one of the most highly
expressed microRNAs in the developing and adult vertebrate brain, directly represses the key
transcriptional regulators including Hes1 [2]. In the neural progenitor cells, Hes1 oscillates in ultradian
frequency at higher expression level, and its expression level stabilized at low level when the cells
differentiate into neuronal cells [3]. As miR-9 expression increases in the neural progenitor cells, the
production of Hes-1 maintained in high level is inhibited at transcription and translation level and
becomes low stable status passing by unstable intermediate status. As a result, miR-9 expression in the
neuronal cell is maintained at high level, since the expression of reciprocal inhibitor Hes1 is turned off
[4]. This typical double negative feedback circuit was successfully figured out mathematically using
delay differential equation in the previous model [5]. Here, we modified the previous model to introduce
miR-23a into the system as a variable participating in regulation of Hes1 expression in combination
with miR-9 through another hypothetical double negative feedback and investigated changes in the
Hes1 expression kinetics. Bifurcation analysis showed variation of miR-9 and miR-23a can elicit
dampening of oscillation and irreversible bistability in Hes1 expression kinetics whether they act
independently or competitively. We thought that mathematical modeling for combinatorial regulation
of Hes1 expression by two microRNAs is more suitable to describe neuronal differentiation, since it
reflects the irreversibility of natural developmental processes which cannot be explained by single
microRNA regulation model.
REFERENCES
[1] T. Kobayashi and R. Kageyama, Hes1 regulates embryonic stem cell differentiation by suppressing Notch signaling, Genes
to cells, 15, 689-98 (2010)
[2] M. Coolen, S. Katz and L. Bally-Cuif, miR-9: a versatile regulator of neurogenesis, Frontiers in cellular neuroscience, 7,
220 (2013)
[3] H. Shimojo, T. Ohtsuka and R. Kageyama, Oscillations in notch signaling regulate maintenance of neural progenitors,
Neuron, 58, 52-64 (2008)
[4] B. Bonev, P. Stanley and N. Papalopulu, MicroRNA-9 Modulates Hes1 ultradian oscillations by forming a double-negative
feedback loop, Cell reports, 2, 10-8 (2012)
[5] M. Goodfellow, N. Phillips, C. Manning, T. Galla and N. Papalopulu, microRNA input into a neural ultradian oscillator
controls emergence and timing of alternative cell states, Nature communications, 5, 3399 (2014)
2018 한국수리생물학회 58 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
A Mathematical Model of microRNA-mediated regulatory
feedback loops of gene expression.
Yong Keun Park a, Sung Kyu Song a Min Geun Park a, and Woon Yong Jung b
aDepartment of Surgery
bDepartment of Pathology
Catholic Kwandong University International St. Mary’s Hospital
Catholic Kwandong University College of Medicine
Feedback regulation plays a critical role in dynamic gene expression. [1] MicroRNAs (miRNAs) act as
key components of feedback circuits in gene regulatory networks. Ribonucleic acid (RNA) molecules
that are transcribed but not translated into protein can be classified as non-conding RNA (ncRNA).
Numerous ncRNA transcripts have diverse structures and their specific roles. Among them, ribosomal
RNA and transfer RNA are essential for protein synthesis, and there are several types of regulatory RNA
such as long-ncRNAs, miRNAs. MiRNAs are responsible for epigenetic regulation and primarily
functions as a post-transcriptional suppressor by degradation of their target messenger RNA (mRNA)
or by inhibition of translation. [2] Fundamental roles of miRNAs (~22 nucleotides in length) have been
well established in a variety of human diseases, particularly including cancers. [3,4] Recent researches
have focused on their functions in carcinogenesis and tumor progression, highlighting probabilities as
diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers. [5] Because dynamic interaction and feedback circuits of
miRNA-target mRNA are complicated and sophisticated, mathematical modeling could aid on
understanding their underlying mechanisms. Mathematical modeling aims to translate complex real
world questions into well-defined mathematical equations, which is a common approach of solving
problems underlying mechanics. Recently, it has received growing attention within molecular biology
community, being expected to give a clue of dissecting complex biological mechanism. [6] We adopt a
simulation approach to investigate miRNA-mediated regulatory feedback loops which is composed of
differential equations based on both mass action kinetics and Hill type function.
REFERENCES
[1] Rosenfeld N, Elowitz MB and Alon U, Negative autoregulation speeds the response times of transcription networks, J Mol
Biol,323,785–793 (2002)
[2] Filipowicz W, Jaskiewicz L, Kolb FA and Pillai RS, Post-transcriptional gene silencing by siRNAs and miRNAs, Curr
Opin Struct Biol,15,331-341 (2005)
[3] Esteller M, Non-coding RNAs in human disease. Nat Rev Genet,12,861-74 (2011)
[4] Liu Y, MicroRNAs and PIWI-interacting RNAs in oncology. Oncol Lett,12,2289-2292 (2016)
[5] Wei R, Huang GL, Zhang MY, et al, Clinical significance and prognostic value of microRNA expression signatures in
hepatocellular carcinoma. Clin Cancer Res,19,4780-91. (2013)
[6] Basak S, Behar M and Hoffmann A. Lessons from mathematically modeling the NF-κB pathway, Immunol Rev,246,221-
38 (2012)
2018 한국수리생물학회 59 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
A practical modeling of post-transcriptional regulation by
microRNAs.
Yong Keun Park a, Sung Kyu Song a Min Geun Park a, and Woon Yong Jung b
aDepartment of Surgery bDepartment of Pathology
Catholic Kwandong University International St. Mary’s Hospital
Catholic Kwandong University College of Medicine
In this talk, we present a practical mathematical modeling of gene expression regulated by the
interaction beteween microRNAs (miRNAs) and target messenger RNA (mRNA) – post-
transcriptional or epigenetic regulation. This model is designed by imitating that of previous
articles. [1] miRNAs bind to the 3’-UTR (untranslated region) of their target mRNAs and
inhibits tranlation of mRNA to protein. In another way, miRNAs are incorporated into the
RNA-induced silencing complex (RISC) and serve as guides to target mRNAs for mRNA
degradation. [2] REST is one of the well-known proteins with important roles in neurogenesis
and post-transcriptionally regulated (repressed) by miRNA-9 (miR-9), that is also well-known
in neurogenesis, in the manners mentioned above. [2] In addition, REST protein is a
transciptional factor and is reppressed by itself. REST protein bind to promoter for REST gene
expression as a transcriptional repressor. [2] We expressed these interactions of the three
molecules (REST protein, REST mRNA, and miR-9) in differential equations and showed the
simulations of system change (cell state change) by treatments in biological experiment
through time-series analysis and bifurcation diagram.
All the somatic cells in an individual have same genetic information. But they have different
phenotypes depending on each organ or tissue. Those differences are attributed to differences
of parameters and/or initial values of concentration of each molecules. Therefore, we applied
the model of the cells in neurogenesis to that in tumorigenesis by changing their initial values
and parameters only. But nobody knows the values as everyone knows.
REFERENCES
[1] Goodfellow M, Phillips NE, Manning C, Galla T, and Papalopulu N, microRNA input a neural ultradian
oscillator controls emergence and timing of alternative cell states, Nature Comminications, 5, 3399 (2014)
[2] Stappert L, Roese-Koerner B, and Brüstle O, The role of microRNAs in human neural stem cells, neuronal
differentiation and subtype specification, Cell and Tissue Research, 359(1), 47-64 (2015)
2018 한국수리생물학회 60 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Session C1
Optimization Problems and its Applications
Organizer: 조기필 (부산대학교)
Date/Time: 6월 29일(금) 15:40
Speakers:
1. Xi-Chao Duan (Shanghai Ocean University)
2. Liguo Jiao (Pusan National University)
3. Zhe Hong (Pukyong National University)
4. Malick Muhammad Ibrahim (Pusan National University)
2018 한국수리생물학회 61 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Dynamics and optimal control of an age structured
SIRVS epidemic model
Xi-Chao Duan, Il Hyo Jung and Xue-Zhi Li
College of Information Technology, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai
Vaccination and treatment are both effective methods of preventing the spread of infec
tious diseases. In this paper, we propose an SVIRS epidemic model with ages of vac
cination and recovery, which involving vaccine-induced immunity and infection-induced
immunity. The basic reproduction number of the epidemic model, R0, is first obtaine
d. If R0 < 1, the local and global stability of the disease-free steady state are strictly
proved. If R0 > 1, to control the disease, an optimal control problem is discussed b
y evaluating the cost of control strategies (vaccination & treatment) and using Pontrya
gin’s maximum principle. We use some parameter values related to influenza A to do
some numerical simulations. Results show that the recovery age plays an important ro
le in the optimal control and the efficacy of the optimal strategies are close to that o
f the strategy with maximum treatment only which is obviously better than that of th
e strategy with vaccination only.
REFERENCES
[1] H.D. Kwon, J. Lee, and S.-D. Yang, Optimal control of an age-structured 1 model of HIV infection, Appl.
Math. Comput., 219 (2012), 2766-2779.
[2] H.D. Kwon, J. Lee, and M. Yoon, An age structured model with immunse response of HIV infection: modeli
ng and optimal control approach, Discrete Cont. Dyn. System. B., 19 (2014) 153-172.
[3] Y.N. Xiao, X.D. Sun, S.Y. Tang, J.H. Wu, Transmission potential of the novel avian influenza A(H
7N9) infection in mainland china, J. Theor. Biol. 352 (2014) 1-5.
[4] J. Zhang, Z. Jin, G.-Q. Sun, X.-D. Sun, Y-M. Wang, B. Huang, Determination of original infection
source of H7N9 avian influenza by dynamical model, Sci. Rep. 4 (2014) 4846.
[5] Y. Xing, L. Song, G-Q Sun, Z. Jin, J. Zhang, Assessing reappearance factors of H7N9 avian
influenza in China, Appl. Math. Comput., 309 (2017) 192-204.
[6] C. M. Pease, An evolutionary epidemiological mechanism, with applications to type A influenza.
Theor. Popul. Biol., 31 (1987) 422-452. [7] X. Duan, J-F Yin, X-Z. Li., Global Hopf bifurcation of an SIRS epidemic model with age-dependent recovery,
Chaos Soliton Fract 104 (2017) 613-624.
2018 한국수리생물학회 62 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Exact Semidefinite Programming Relaxations for a Class of
Nondifferentiable Fractional Optimization Problems
Jae Hyoung Lee, Hyun-Min Kim and Liguo Jiao
Finance۰Fishery۰Manufacture Industrial Mathematics Center on Big Data
Pusan National University
In this talk, we study a class of nondifferentiable fractional optimization problems, where the
numerator and denominator of the objective function, and each constraint function are defined
by sums of an SOS-convex polynomial and a support function of a compact convex set. We
find that such a class of nondifferentiable fractional optimization problems enjoys an exact
semidefinite programming (SDP) relaxation.
Using the parametric approach, we transform the nondifferentiable fractional optimization
problem into a non-fractional one. Then, under the Slater condition, a zero duality gap result
for the non-fractional problem and its relaxation problems is obtained. As a consequence, we
prove that the optimal solution of the fractional problem can be found by solving an associated
single semidefinite programming problem of the non-fractional problem. Finally, we design a
numerical example to illustrate our results.
REFERENCES
[1] Chieu, N.H., Feng, J.W., Gao, W., Li, G., Wu, D.: SOS-Convex Semialgebraic Programs and its Applications
to Robust Optimization: A Tractable Class of Nonsmooth Convex Optimization. Set-Valued Var. Anal.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11228-017-0456-1 (2017)
[2] Jeyakumar, V., Vicente-P\'{e}rez, J.: Dual semidefinite programs without duality gaps for a class of convex
minimax programs. J. Optim. Theory Appl. 162, 735-753 (2014)
2018 한국수리생물학회 63 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Quasi Ꜫ-solutions in convex optimization with
locally Lipschitz constrains
Zhe Hong, Nak Eun Cho and Do Sang Kim
Department of Applied Mathematics, Pukyong National University
In this talk, we consider a convex optimization problem with locally Lipschitz inequality
constraints. The KKT optimality conditions for a quasi Ꜫ-solution are established under Slater's
constraint qualification and a non-degeneracy condition. Some examples are also designed to
illustrate our main results.
REFERENCES
[1] A. Dhara and J. Dutta, Optimality Conditions in Convex Optimization, A Finite-Dimensional View. CRC
Press, (2012)
[2] J. Dutta and C. S. Lalitha, Optimality conditions in convex optimization revisited. Optimization Letters, 7,
221-229 (2013)
2018 한국수리생물학회 64 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Control Malaria through media Awareness: A Mathematical
Modeling Approach
Malik Muhammad Ibrahim and Il Hyo Jung
Department of Mathematics, Pusan National University
Malaria is an ancient disease with challenging health issues. The tropical regions such as Africa,
Asia and America are favorable for rapid spread of this disease. There are two hundred and
twenty five million cases of malaria around the world. This deadly disease is the root cause of
the death of around millions people according to the world health organization (WHO) 2015
world malaria report. The literature on the mathematical model for vector-borne disease
likewise malaria is vast. The mathematical modeling of malaria disease has a crucial role to
understand the insights of the transmission dynamics and corresponding appropriate prevention
strategies. In this study, a deterministic Vector-borne model has been proposed. Previous
studies suggested that prevention is a control parameter for such infectious disease. Thus it
shall be helpful to add awareness term in mathematical model of the disease. The whole
infected host population is divided into two groups, aware and unaware infected individuals.
The positivity and the boundedness of solutions have been derived. Local and global stability
analysis of disease free equilibrium has been investigated via basic reproductive number R0, if
R0 <1 the system is stable otherwise unstable. The existence of the unique endemic equilibrium
has been also determined under certain conditions. The results show that a significant increase
in the population of susceptible human is achieved in addition to the decrease in the population
of the infected mosquitoes.
REFERENCES
[1] G. Evensen, The Ensemble Kalman Filter, theoretical formulation and practical implementation, Ocean
Dynamics; 53, 343-367 (2003)
[2] P. R. Oke, P. Sakov, and S. R. Corney, Impacts of localisation in the EnKF and EnOI: Experiments with a small
model, Ocean Dyn., 57, 32–45 (2007)
2018 한국수리생물학회 65 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Session C2
Mathematics in Marine Biology
Organizer: 윤민 (부경대학교)
Date/Time: 6월 29일(금) 15:40
Speakers:
1. 현상윤 (부경대학교)
2. 박남규 (부경대학교)
3. 김군도 (부경대학교)
2018 한국수리생물학회 66 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Fish stock assessments: e.g., a state-space age-structure model
Saang-Yoon Hyun
Department of Marine Biology, College of Fisheries Sciences, Pukyong National University
Fish stock assessments are a pivotal core for fisheries management because managers need to
know the estimates of a stock size (e.g., abundance or biomass), its associated metrics (e.g.,
mortality, recruits, etc.), and management references (e.g., maximum sustainable yield), and
the uncertainty in these estimates. In Korea, the field of fish stock assessments seems to
have been mainly limited to fisheries scientists, but in other countries, it has been developed
and implemented by not only them but also mathematicians and statisticians because of the
task of inferring multiple parameters in a non-linear model. The objective of my
presentation is to introduce Korean quantitative scientists to one of the most updated
methods, a state-space age-structured model, and to encourage them to participate in the field.
The popularity of age-structured models is owing to high resolution of the demography of a
fish population, and the new optimization software, Template Model Builder (TMB)
(Kristensen et al. 2016) enables us to treat fish population sizes as random-effect parameters.
Using actual data on the US Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank Acadian redfish (Sebastes
fasciatus) stock, I will illustrate the stock assessment via the updated method.
REFERENCES
[1] Kristensen, K., A. Nielsen, C. W. Berg, H. Skaug, and B. M. Bell. 2016. TMB: Automatic Differentiation and
Laplace Approximation. Journal of Statistical Software 70:21.
2018 한국수리생물학회 67 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Bioactive Peptides from Marine Organism
Nam Gyu Park
Department of Biotechnology, Pukyong National University
Neuropeptides that act as muscle relaxants have been identified in chordates and
protostomian invertebrates but little is known about the molecular identity of neuropeptides
that act as muscle relaxants in deuterostomian invertebrates (e.g. echinoderms) that are
‘evolutionary intermediates’ of chordates and protostomes. Here, we have used the apical
muscle of the starfish Patiria pectinifera to assay for myorelaxants in extracts of this species.
A hexadecapeptide was identified and designated starfish myorelaxant peptide (SMP).
Cloning and sequencing of a cDNA encoding the SMP precursor protein revealed that it
comprises 12 copies of SMP as well as 3 peptides (7 copies in total) that are structurally
related to SMP. Analysis of the expression of SMP precursor transcripts in P. pectinifera
using qPCR revealed the highest expression in the radial nerve cords and lower expression
levels in neuromuscular tissues such as the apical muscle, tube feet and cardiac stomach.
Consistent with these findings, SMP also caused relaxation of tube feet and cardiac stomach
preparations. Collectively, these data indicate that SMP has a general physiological role as a
muscle relaxant in starfish.
Interestingly, comparison of the sequence of the SMP precursor with known neuropeptide
precursors revealed that SMP belongs to a bilaterian family of neuropeptides that include
molluscan pedal peptides (PP) and arthropodan orcokinins (OK). This is the first study to
determine the function of a PP/OK-type peptide in a deuterostome.
In addition, we have also purified other neuropeptides and antimicrobial peptides from the
starfish P. pectinifera and the sea anemone Urticina crassicornis.
REFERENCES
[1] C-H. Kim, H-J. Go, H. Y. Oh, M. R. Elphick and N. G. Park, Identification of evolutionarily conserved
residues required for the bioactivity of a pedal peptide/orcokinin-type neuropeptide, Peptides 103, 10-18 (2018).
[2] C-H. Kim, H-J. Go, H. Y. Oh, J. B. Park, T. K. Lee, J-K. Seo, M. R. Elphick and N. G. Park, Identification
of a novel antimicrobial peptide from the sea star Patiria pectinifera, Dev. Comp. Immunol, 86, 203-213 (2018).
[3] C-H Kim, Y. J. Lee, H-J. Go, H. Y. Oh, T. K. Lee, J. B. Park and N. G. Park, Defensin-neurotoxin dyad in a
basally branching metazoan sea anemone, FEBS J. 284, 3320-3338 (2017).
[4] C-H. Kim, E. J. Kim, H. J. Go, H. Y. Oh, M. Lin, M. R. Elphick and N. G. Park, Identification of a novel
starfish neuropeptide that acts as a muscle relaxant. J. Neurochem. 137, 33-45 (2016).
2018 한국수리생물학회 68 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Characterization of the transcriptome and gene expression of hemocytes
in Abalone
Gun-Do Kim Department of Microbiology, Pukyong National University
Abalone is a one of the commercially-important marine gastropod. However, the aquaculture
production rate of abalone has been dropped recently possibly due to several reasons such as
deterioration of aquaculture environments, genetic degradation, and diseases. Therefore, it is necessary
to understand its genetic and immune systems. In the recent, next-generation sequencing (NGS)
technologies have profoundly improved the understanding of abalone’s immune system.
We performed transcriptome analysis from hemocytes of abalone using the next generation sequencing
technology, Illumina Nextseq system with 150 bp paired-end reads. Illumina yielded raw reads quality
was checked using FastQC tool (Andrews, 2010) to obtain processed reads and then processed by the
in-house script for adapters and low-quality bases trimming towards 3′- end with cutadapt (ver. 1.11;
Martin, 2011). For De novo assembly of Illumina NextSeq 500 processed data, only high-quality
reads were assembled using Trinity tool (https://github.com/trinityrnaseq/trinityrnaseq/wiki) with
default K-mer=25. Transcripts having length≥201 bp have been considered, followed by clustering of
these transcripts with 97% identity using CD-HIT_est (http://weizhongli-lab.org/cd-hit/). High-quality
clean reads were mapped to the transcript sequences from CD-HIT_est through TopHat (ver. 2.1.1.;
Trapnell et al., 2012). Cufflinks (ver. 2.2.1.; Trapnell et al., 2012) was used for the assembly of the
mapped reads, and the fragments per kilobase of exon per million fragments mapped (FPKM)
representation of gene expression value were obtained. Cuffdiff of Cufflinks (Trapnell et al., 2012) was
used to test the significance of differential expression of genes based on FPKM. Genes with fold change
(FC) >2 (upregulated) or <0.5 (up or down regulated), and false discovery rate (FDR) adjusted for
P<0.05, were considered to be differentially expressed.
Clean reads of samples were de novo assembled into a transcriptome consisting of 448,240 contigs with
a N50 of 1,180 bp. In addition, 16,479 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were identified in response
to Poly(I:C) administration. Top DEGs include RNA-binding protein Luc-7, calponin, paramyosin,
metastasis suppressor protein-1 and retrotransposon. This study could provide critical information not
only for identification of novel genes involved in abalone immune system, but also for understanding
of abalones' response to viral infection.
REFERENCES
[1] Andrews S: FastQC: A quality control tool for high throughput sequence data.
http://www.bioinformatics.babraham.ac.uk/proj-ects/fastqc/. Accessed January 10, 2016.
[2] Martin M. Cutadapt removes adapter sequences from high-throughput sequencing reads. EMBnet.journal.
2011;17(1):10–12.
[3] Trapnell C, Roberts A, Goff L, Pertea G, Kim D, Kelley DR, Pimentel H, Salzberg SL, Rinn JL and Pachter
L: Differential gene and transcript expression analysis of RNA-seq experiments with TopHat and Cufflinks. Nat
Protoc 7: 562-578, 2012.
2018 한국수리생물학회 69 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Session C3
Game Theory in Mathematical Biology
Organizer: 김철민 (UNIST)
Date/Time: 6월 29일(화) 15:40
Speakers:
1. Seungki Baek (부경대학교)
2. Muyoung Heo (IBS Center for Climate Physics)
3. Pilwon Kim (UNIST)
2018 한국수리생물학회 70 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Seven Rules to Avoid the Tragedy of the Commons
Seungki Baek
Department of Physics, Pukyong National University
Cooperation among self-interested players in a social dilemma is fragile and easily interrupted
by mistakes. In this work, we study the repeated n-person public-goods game and search for a
strategy that forms a cooperative Nash equilibrium in the presence of implementation error
with a guarantee that the resulting payoff will be no less than any of the co-players’. By
enumerating strategic possibilities for n=3, we show that such a strategy indeed exists when its
memory length m equals three. It means that a deterministic strategy can be publicly employed
to stabilize cooperation against error with avoiding the risk of being exploited. We furthermore
show that, for general n-person public-goods game, m ≥ n is necessary to satisfy the above
criteria.
2018 한국수리생물학회 71 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Hawk-Dove Game with Terminator
Muyoung Heo
IBS Center for Climate Physics
Since its inception, the hawk-dove game has served as an important prototype of cooperation
games. The game describes resource competition between an aggressive strategy called hawk,
which coerces doves and engages in costly fights with other hawks, and a submissive strategy
called dove, which yields to hawks and shares the resource with other doves. This game
includes as special cases both the prisoner’s dilemma (when fights are less costly) and the
snowdrift game (when fights are more costly). While previous analyses have investigated
iterations of this game, they did not consider the natural option that doves coerced by hawks
escape from their exploitative interactions. Here we therefore extend the classical iterated
hawk-dove game by introducing a strategy called termination, which actively pursues a new
interaction after encountering a hawk and otherwise acts like a dove. On this basis, we report
the following findings. First, in addition to the two qualitatively distinct game outcomes known
from the classical hawk-dove game, the existence of terminators leads to three new game
outcomes, which arise when the probability of continuing interactions from one round to the
next (game continuity) is sufficiently high and the costs of escaping from an interaction (cost
of termination) is sufficiently low. Second, increasing the game continuity and decreasing the
cost of termination cause the same sequence of transitions between qualitatively distinct game
outcomes. Third, doves and terminators can never stably coexist, so the three new game
outcomes can be understood in terms of when terminators can replace doves and vice versa.
Fourth, while we find bistabilities between hawk-dove and hawk-terminator mixtures for both
prisoner’s dilemmas and snowdrift games, hawk-terminator mixtures can be globally stable
only in snowdrift games. Fifth, when the game continuity is increased, the existence of
terminators dramatically reduces the frequency of fighting. Our results thus demonstrate how
including the option of termination is fundamental for understanding iterated pairwise
interactions and the resultant cooperation dynamics.
2018 한국수리생물학회 72 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Group Formation Dynamics under Limited Resource
Dongryul Lee and Pilwon Kim
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology
In this talk, we explore how the group-size effects contribute to formation of groups competing
for common resources and resource allocations. Better competitiveness as group size increases
favours forming larger groups, whereas increased managing cost set the upper bound to viable
group size. In order to study group distributions in a contest under such counteracting size
effects, we adopt group dynamics based on the sequential maximin strategies. The model
assumes that groups are sequentially created by people seeking a conservative measure to
reduce their possible maximum loss. The resulted group distributions are various from the
winner-takes-all situation to the Pareto principle, sensitively depending on the size effects. We
are especially interested in how the size effects influence social inequalities at group and
individual levels in resource allocation. Investigation shows that reducing the positive size
effect and enhancing the negative size effect are not the same, and may result in different types
of social inequalities. We conclude from a relation between the inequality measures and group
distribution that overall social equality only can be achieved within a narrow region where two
size effects are balanced.
2018 한국수리생물학회 73 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Session D1
기후변화 영향평가를 위한 RCP기반 기후변화
응용 정보 생산
Organizer: 정일효 (부산대학교)
Date/Time: 6월 30일(토) 10:00
Speakers:
1. 강희진 (전남대학교)
2. 이슬기 (고려대학교)
3. 박재록 (부산대학교)
4. 김성찬 (부산대학교)
2018 한국수리생물학회 74 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
The Production of Climate Change Information from RCP-based climate
data for the Assessment of Impact on various measures in Animal Ecology
Heejin Kang1․ Juhyun Lee2․ Ha-cheol Sung3*
1Department of Biological Sciences and Biotechnology, Chonnam National University 2Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Pusan National University
3Department of Biological Sciences, Chonnam National University [email protected]
Climate changes have been a strong impact in global environments as well as species distribution and
abundant in various habitats, in particular animal survival and reproductive success by habitat changes,
biodiversity loss, and extinction. Thus, the study on the prediction of ecosystem severity produced based
on the future climate change scenario (RCP; Representative concentration pathway) is necessary in
these days. To do this, we have produced four kinds of indices for animal ecology: CCSI (Climate
change severity index), EIWW (Environmental index for wintering waterfowls), Oi (Ombrothermic
index), Ios2 (The ombrothermic index of the summer bimonth). These indices used 1km grid unit with
monthly temperature and precipitation elements for CCSI, Oi and Ios2, and used 12.5km grid unit with
daily temperature element from December to January for EIWW. We found that severity values of CCSI
increased toward late 21C (Century), and that the values were higher in RCP 8.5 scenario than in RCP
4.5 scenario. Furthermore, the values showed that critical areas increased with decreasing species
abundance on the Korean Peninsula. The values for EIWW increased toward late 21C and much higher
in RCP 8.5 scenario than in RCP 4.5 scenario. The high values could cause spreading habitats for the
wintering waterfowls. There were no clear changes toward late 21C in the values for Oi and Ios2, but
the values in RCP 8.5 scenario were lower than in RCP 4.5 scenario. These indices especially could
affect future distributions and abundances for amphibian populations. The indices predicted future
animal distribution, migration pattern, and habitats suitability, and can be used for estimating future
animal populations in Korean Peninsula as well as provide for basic information on mid- and long-term
species and habitat conservation plans.
REFERENCES
[1] Anderson, E. R., Cherrington, E. A., Tremblay-Boyer, L., Flores, A. I., & Sempris, E. 2008. Identifying critical areas for
conservation: Biodiversity and climate change in central America, Mexico, and the Dominican Republic. Biodiversity, 9(3-4),
89-99.
[2] Attorre, F., Alfo, M., De Sanctis, M., Francesconi, F., & Bruno, F. 2007. Comparison of interpolation methods for mapping
climatic and bioclimatic variables at regional scale. International journal of climatology, 27(13), 1825-1843.
[3] Devictor, V., Julliard, R., Couvet, D., & Jiguet, F. 2008. Birds are tracking climate warming, but not fast enough.
Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences, 275(1652), 2743-2748.
[4] Keith, D. A., Akçakaya, H. R., Thuiller, W., Midgley, G. F., Pearson, R. G., Phillips, S. J., ... & Rebelo, T. G. 2008.
Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat
models. Biology letters, 4(5), 560-563.
2018 한국수리생물학회 75 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
동아시아 몬순 기후의 강수 특성을 반영할 수 있는
Modified Simple Aridity Intensity Index 개발과 적용
Sle-gee Lee, Chul-Hee Lim, Cholho Song, Sungeun Cha, Woo-Kyun Lee
Department of Environmental Science & Ecological Engineering, Korea University
기후는 산림 식생대, 수종, 생장량, 산림탄소에 직간접적인 변화를 야기하는 중요한 변수이다. 최
근으로 올수록 인간의 활동에 의한 기후 변동성은 점차 커지고 있고 정부와 학계에서는 기후변화
에 따른 적응 방안을 마련하기 위해 다양한 해결책을 제시하고 있다. 일반적으로 기후변화는 평
균 기온의 변화량과 추세를 통해 설명된다. 하지만 산림에서 일어나는 변화는 극한값의 출현과
지속 기간에 더 큰 영향을 받고, 이는 평균값의 변화와 구별되어 다루어져야 한다. IPCC AR5에서
언급된 바와 같이, 강수량은 미래 예측 시나리오에서의 변동폭이 크고 기온에 비해 상대적으로
시기별 편차가 크게 나타난다[1]. 따라서 정량적으로 표현된 지수를 사용하여 산림에 영향을 주는
임계점에 대한 변화 기준을 마련할 필요가 있다.
우리나라에서 중요한 극한 강수 현상은 여름철 집중호우와 겨울철 가뭄이 대표적이다. 산림의
분포와 생장의 측면에서는 겨울철 건조한 시기의 강도와 지속성이 큰 문제가 된다. 이미 한라산
에 분포하는 구상나무를 포함한 북방계 침엽수종들의 쇠퇴 현상이 학계를 통해 알려져 왔고, 겨
울철 건조 현상이 이를 유발하는 큰 요인 가운데 하나로 보고되어 있다[2]. 가뭄과 건조에 대한
영향을 정량화할 수 있는 지수는 다양하게 개발되어 왔다. AII(Simple Aridity Intensity Index)는 토지
의 취약성, 산사태 위험성 등의 연구에서 활용된 사례가 있고, 한반도 산림의 건조 상태에 대한
미래 예측값을 제시할 수 있다는 점에서 활용성이 높다[3]. 반면, AII는 포르투갈 지역의 강수 특
성에 기반해 개발되었기 때문에 지중해성 건조 기후를 반영하는 것에 특화되어 있다. 특히, 아시
아 몬순 기후의 건조 현상을 설명하기 위해 강수가 집중되는 여름철을 지수 값 산출 과정에서 제
외할 필요가 있다. 또한 동일한 AII 값이 나타난 지역들에 대하여 변별력을 지닐 수 있는 독립변
수가 필요하다. 본 연구의 목적은 AII를 기반으로 아시아 몬순 기후의 강수 특성을 반영하고, 지
수값의 상대 비교가 가능한 형태로 개선하는 것에 있다.
REFERENCES
[1] 국립기상연구소, 기후변화 이해하기 Ⅱ: 3, 국립기상연구소 (2009)
[2] 구경아, 박원규, & 공우석, 한라산 구상나무 (Abies koreana W.) 의 연륜연대학적 연구-기후변화에 따른 생
장변동 분석. 한국생태학회지, 24(5), 281-288 (2001)
[3] Costa, A. C., & Soares, A., Trends in extreme precipitation indices derived from a daily rainfall database for the South of
Portugal. International Journal of Climatology, 29(13), 1956-1975 (2009)
2018 한국수리생물학회 76 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Predict of Water Quality Based on RCP Scenario:
Case of Nakdong River Basin, South Korea
Jaerock Park and Hyunsuk Shin
Department of Civilengineering, Pusan National University
[email protected] and [email protected]
인간 활동과 그에 따른 기후변화는 기온상승, 강우량 변화, 강우 패턴 변화 등 자연생태계에 많
은 영향을 주고있으며, 하천 유량의 변화를 야기한다. 농업, 축산업, 공업 등은 많은 양의 오염물
질을 하천으로 방류하며 이는 하천 유량 변화와 함께 하천 수질 저하의 주요 원인이 된다. 본 연
구에서는 기후변화 RCP 4.5, 8.5 시나리오를 기반으로 하천의 유량을 예측하고 그에 따른 수질을
비선형 상관관계 분석을 통하여 예측하였다. 분석은 안동댐~낙동하구언까지 낙동강 본류 주요지
점 9개 지점에 대하여 실행하였으며, 수질 항목은 DO, BOD, SS, TN, TP에 대하여 실시하였다. 각
유역에 대하여 RCP 4.5, 8.5 시나리오 기반 계절 평균, 연평균 해석을 실시 하였으며, 예측 결과,
안동댐 하류부와 금호강 유입부에서 BOD와 TP의 농도가 가장 많이 증가 하였으며, TN의 경우 낙
동강 최하류인 낙동하구언에서 가장 높은 증가율을 보였다. DO와 SS의 경우 유량의 변화에 따라
농도의 변화는 크게 나타나지 않았다. 계절의 경우 기온이 높은 여름보다 봄, 가을에 농도가 높아
지는 경향을 보였다.
REFERENCES
[1] Arnold and Fohre. SWAT2000: current capabilities and research opportunities in applied watershed modelling,
Hydrological Processes, Volume 19, Issue 3, pp 563–572. (2005)
[2] A. Sankarasubramanian and Richard M. Vogel. Climate elasticity of streamflow in the United States. Water
resources research, Vol. 37, No. 6, pp. 1771-1781. (2001)
[3] Chiew, F. H.S., and McMahon, T. A.. "Detection of Trend or Change in Annual Flow of Australian Rivers."
International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 13, pp. 643-643. (1993)
[4] Richard M. Vogel. The Hydeomorphology of an Urbanizing Watershed Using Multivariate Elasticity.
Advances in Water Resources. (2006).
[5] Vogel, R. M., Wilson, I., Daly, C. Regional regression models of annual streamflow for the United States, J.
Irrig. Drain. Eng., Vol. 125(3), pp. 148-157. (1999).
2018 한국수리생물학회 77 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Scheduling Weekly Malaria Vector Control in Republic of Korea
using RCP-based Climate Data
Sungchan Kim
(Corresponding Author : Il Hyo Jung)
Department of Mathematics, Pusan National University, Busan, Korea
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are greenhouse gas concentration pathways
adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for its Fifth Assessment
Report (AR5) in 2014. There are many applications of RCP scenarios such as researches and
climate modeling to establish the effect climate changes. Also, in this talk, we deal with the
population dynamics of Anopheles sinensis, which is the most widespread malaria vector specie
in Korea responsible for P.vivax malaria based on RCP scenarios to show the effect of climate
change in the mosquito populations and malaria transmissions. We consider the mosquito
population in the north regions of Gyeonggi-do in the South Korea such as Paju, Cheolwon
and Ganghwa where P.vivax malaria is now endemic. And then we give an idea of stochastic
weekly (impulsive) vector control strategies using the concept of discrete Markov decision
process (MDP) and we’ll develop this for whole malaria control strategies in future.
REFERENCES
[1] Feng, X., Zhang, S., Huang, F., Zhang, L., Feng, J., Xia, Z., Zhou, H., Hu, W., Zhou, S., 2017. Biology,
bionomics and molecular biology of Anopheles sinensis Wiedemann 1828 (diptera: Culicidae), main malaria
vector in china. Frontiers in Microbiology 8, 1473.
[2] Beck-Johnson, L. M., Nelson, W. A., Paaijmans, K. P., Read, A. F., Thomas, M. B., Bjørnstad, O. N., 2013.
The effect of temperature on anopheles mosquito population dynamics and the potential for malaria
transmission. PLOS one 8 (11), e79276.
[3] Viet, A. F., Jeanpierre, L., Bouzid, M., Mouaddib, A. I. (2012). Using Markov Decision Processes to define
an adaptive strategy to control the spread of an animal disease. Computers and electronics in agriculture, 80,
71-79.
2018 한국수리생물학회 78 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Session D2
Mathematical Modeling and its Applications
Organizer: 김광수 (부산대학교)
Date/Time: 6월 30일(토) 10:00
Speakers:
1. 정용담 (부산대학교)
2. 김성찬 (부산대학교)
3. 정재헌 (부산대학교)
4. 변종혁 (부산대학교)
2018 한국수리생물학회 79 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Analysis of Leslie matrix model depending on survival rate of
Trichiurus Lepturus eggs in Korean Waters
Yong Dam Jeong
Department of Mathematics, Pusan national University
Trichiurus Lepturus is a warm water fish species and is widely distributed in the Yellow Sea
and the East China Sea. It is also called hairtail because of its tail like a hair. The hairtail is
the second major fishery resource in Korea along and so has been occupying a large portion
of the catch in Korea for a long time. However, since the 1980s, catches have fallen sharply,
bringing the minimum catch in 2012. In order to produce maximum sustainable yield, we
need the management of hairtail. Thus, in this study, we talk about the evaluation and
management of hairtail by using the age-structured Leslie matrix model. In particular, we
concentrate on the survival rate of eggs in the model. The previous studies about fisheries
management concentrated on the survival rate of adult fishes, but analysis of survival rate of
eggs is also an important part. Therefore, we analyze the survival rate of eggs in the Leslie
matrix model by dividing them into a constant and a time-dependent function based on data.
REFERENCES
[1] T. J. Quinn and R. B. Deriso. Quantitative fish dynamics. Oxford University Press, 1999.
[2] C. Zhang. A study on the stock assessment and management implications of the hairtail, trichiurus lepturus
linne in korean waters 1. estimation of population eco- logical characteristics of the hairtail, trichiurus lepturus
linne in korean waters. 29, 01 1996.
2018 한국수리생물학회 80 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
On the Relation between Mosquito Feeding Behavioral Changes
and the Malaria Invasion / Extinction Potentials
Sungchan Kim
(Corresponding Author: Il Hyo Jung)
Department of Mathematics, Pusan National University, Busan, Korea
In recent years, studies of mosquito behavioral changes have gained attention. Particularly,
malaria-infectious individuals were found in [1] to be more attractive to mosquitoes. The study
suggested that mosquitoes are more attracted to humans infected with the transmissible
gametocyte stage of malaria parasites than to uninfected individuals or individuals infected
with asexual, non-transmissible stages. With this feeding behavioral changes, in [2], it was
shown that for low transmission areas, the infected ratio of mosquito and human increases as
the mosquito feeding behavioral changes is getting more and more so we can think the effect
increases their survival probability. So, in this talk, it will be discussed malaria extinction and
invasion potentials with respect to mosquito behavioral changes with some mathematical tools
based on branching process.
REFERENCES
[1] Lacroix, R., Mukabana, W. R., Gouagna, L. C., & Koella, J. C. (2005). Malaria infection increases
attractiveness of humans to mosquitoes. PLoS biology, 3(9), e298.
[2] Kim, S., Masud, M. A., Cho, G., Jung, I. H. (2017). Analysis of a vector-bias effect in the spread of
malaria between two different incidence areas. Journal of theoretical biology, 419, 66-76.
[3] Pemberton-Ross, P., Chitnis, N., Pothin, E., Smith, T. A. (2017). A stochastic model for the probability
of malaria extinction by mass drug administration. Malaria journal, 16(1), 376.
2018 한국수리생물학회 81 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
ANALYSIS OF SMOKING PHENOMENON BASED ON
INDIVIDUALS BEHAVIOR CHANGE
Jae Hun Jung and Il Hyo Jung
Department of Mathematics, Pusan National University
In this talk, we present some topics in mathematical biology. In recent years, behavioral
addictions such as gambling, alcohol, smoking, and smartphones are increasing. These
addictions are called behavioral ad- diction, and they are classified as an addiction and related
diseases, and the problem is likely to be a social problem such as obsessive-compulsive
disorder, impulse control disorder, personality disorder. Among them, smoking has been
classified as substance addiction by being addicted to the substance called nicotine, but it can
be classified as behavior addiction due to the fact that the rate of smoking is increased due to
the surrounding environment and the influence of peers. In this way, behavioral addiction can
be achieved from individual’s behavior and group behavior. From this point of view, we
developed a mathematical model based on behaviors of smoking phenomena and analyzed
through simulation.
REFERENCES
[1] Poletti, Piero and Caprile, Bruno and Ajelli, Marco and Pugliese, Andrea and Merler, Stefano Spontaneous
behavioral changes in response to epidemics, Journal of theoretical biology, 1 (2009), 31-40.
[2] Poletti, Piero and Ajelli, Marco and Merler, Stefano Risk perception and effectiveness of uncoordinated
behavioral responses in an emerging epidemic, Mathematical biosciences, 2 (2012), 80-89.
2018 한국수리생물학회 82 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
TUMOR GROWTH INHIBITION MODEL BASED ON
CONTINUOUS TIME RANDOM WALK
Jong Hyuk Byun
Department of Mathematics, Pusan National University, Busan 46241, South Korea
A compartment model is a system of concentration or density over time of interactions in
different compartments. In particular, in the tumor growth inhibition (TGI) model, tumor
inhibition by the drug effect has been explained by adding delays. This is represented by
using various dummy compartments with linear tricks for expressing a delay equation. By
extending this concept, we derive an integrodifferential equation that can be used for TGI by
using a stochastic process. We propose a model that covers previous models. The extended
model contains both Markovian and non-Markovian process by the drug particles.
Furthermore, we give an application that contains a fractional order with biological meaning.
REFERENCES
[1] Christopher N. Angstmann, Austen M. Erickson, Bruce I. Henry, Anna V. McGann, John M. Murray, and James A.
Nichols SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics 2017 77:2, 430-446
[2] Lobo ED, Balthasar JP. Pharmacodynamic modeling of chemotherapeutic effects: Application of a transit compartment
model to characterize methotrexate effects in vitro. AAPS PharmSci. 2002;4(4):212-222. doi:10.1208/ps040442.
[3] Dokoumetzidis, A, Macheras, P.J Fractional kinetics in drug absorption and disposi- tion processes Pharmacokinet
Pharmacodyn (2009) 36: 165.
2018 한국수리생물학회 83 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Session D3
General Session
Date/Time: 6월 30일(토) 10:00
Speakers:
1. 진홍성 (전남대학교)
2. 이완호 (NIMS)
3. 홍성완 (부산대학교)
2018 한국수리생물학회 84 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
창원 근해의 보름달 물 해파리 대량발생 예측 시뮬레이션
진홍성
Department of Mathematics, Chonnam National University University
해수의 온도가 올라감에 따라 부영양화가 일어날 가능성이 높아지고 이에 따라 용존산소도 줄어
들게 된다. 용존산소와 온도에 따른 해파리 폴립의 개체수 모델을 이용하여 해파리 성체의 대량
발생을 예측할 수 있을 것이다. 마산만 지역의 수온, 용존산소, 부영양화 자료를 이용하여 폴립의
개체수를 시뮬레이션하고 보름달 물 해파리 의 대량발생 데이터와 비교하였다.
REFERENCES
[1] Raquel Vaquer-Sunyer, Carlos M. Duarte, Thresholds of hypoxia for marine biodiversity, PNAS, vol.
105, no. 40, 15452-15457 (2008)
[2] Haruto Ishii, Kiyonori Katsukoshi, Seasonal and Vertical Distribution of Aurelia aurita Polyps on a Pylon
in the Innermost Part of Tokyo Bay, Journal of Oceanography, Vol. 66, pp. 329 – 336 (2010)
2018 한국수리생물학회 85 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Mathematical model of the dynamics of bacterial flagellar in a
fluid environment
Wanho Lee1, Yongsam Kim2, Boyce E. Griffith3, and Sookkyung Lim4
1) Division of Strategic Research, National Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Daejeon 34047,
KOREA
2) Department of Mathematics, Chung-Ang University, Seoul 156-756, KOREA
3) Department of Mathematics and McAllister Heart Institute, University of North Carolina,
North Carolina, USA
4) Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Cincinnati, 4199 French Hall West,
Cincinnati, Ohio 45221, USA
In this talk, we present the dynamics of elastic flagella when single or multi flagella undergo
a full cycle of polymorphic transformations using a computational method in which flagellar
motors are tethered in space and connected via flexible hooks to the filaments. Each flagellum
is described by an elastic rod based on the Kirchhoff rod theory and its hydrodynamic
interaction is described by regularized Stokes formulation. In our model a sequence of
transformations from normal to semicoiled to curly 1 and then to normal that is typically
observed in a real micro-organism as a cyclic event is prescribed to one or several designated
flagella. We also introduce the role of a compliant hook in flagellar bundling.
REFERENCES
[1] H. C. Berg, The rotary motor of bacterial flagella, Biochemistry 72, 19-54 (2003).
[2] R. Cortez, The method of regularized stokeslets, SIAM J. on Scientific Computing 23, 4 (2001).
[3] W. Lee, Y. Kim, S. D. Olson, S. Lim, Nonlinear dynamics of a rotating elastic rod in a viscous
fluid, Phys. Rev. E 90, (2014).
[4] W. Ko, S. Lim,W. Lee, Y. Kim, H.C. Berg, C.S. Peskin, Modeling polymorphic transformation of
rotating bacterial flagella in a viscous fluid, Phys. Rev. E 95:063106 (2017)
2018 한국수리생물학회 86 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) population advancement in association with
environmental factors using self-organizing map and diffusion kernel methods
Sungwon Hong1*, Tae-Soo Chon1, 2, Gea-Jae Joo1
1 Department of Biological Sciences, Pusan National University 2 Ecology and Future Research Association
In order to examine advancement patterns in the course of recolonization of otter populations in the
Korean peninsula, we observed spraint densities at 250–355 sites each year from 2014 to 2017 in the
Nakdong River basin in the southern peninsula of Korea. At the sampling areas, we also assessed
environmental factors, including landscape (e.g. distance to forest and canopy), food sources (e.g.,
number of fish individuals), and anthropogenic stressors (e.g., distance to factory, distance to residence
area). Using the diffusion kernel method, two geographic populations were identified, the northern (N)
and southern (S) populations. Both populations moved eastward and were prevalent over the Nakdong
River basins by 2017. Dispersal of the S population was limited by the industrial area located southeast
of the survey area. In contrast, the N population continuously advanced, first eastward and then
southward, occupying a broader area than the S population. The Geo-SOM revealed associations
between spraint densities and environmental factors via links between the geographic locations of
sampling sites. Both populations were negatively affected by anthropogenic factors, including distance
to factories and human population density. However, cumulative associations with all environmental
factors, including landscape, food sources, and anthropogenic factors, were noted when populations
were stabilized. This was especially true in the S population, where the origin of dispersal remained in
the same location during the course of recolonization. However, at the frontlines where the population
density was low, otters were associated with food sources (e.g., number of fish individuals). We could
determine the preferences of otter populations for specific environmental factors by considering the
environmental constraints of each population and the time at which populations became stabilized.
REFERENCES
[1] F. Bação, V. Lobo, and M. Painho, Geo-self-organizing map (Geo-SOM) for building and exploring homogeneous regions.
Pages 22-37 in M. J. Egenhofer, C. Freksa, and H. J. Miller, editors. Geographic Information Science. Springer, Berlin,
Germany. (2004)
[2] F. Bação, V. Lobo, and M. Painho. Geo-SOM and its integration with geographic information systems. Pages 5-8. 5th
Workshop on Self-Organizing Maps, University Paris, France. (2005)
[3] R. Kondor, and J. P. Vert. Diffusion Kernels on graphs and other discrete input spaces. in B. Scholkopf, K. Tsuda, and J. P.
Vert, editors. Kernel Methods in Computational Biology. The MIT Press, Massachusetts, USA. (2004)
[4] S. Hong. Re-establishment of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) in South Korea from 1987 to 2010: the contributions of
environmental improvement and conservation policy. Page 29. 13th International Otter Congress, Singapore, Singapore. (2016)
[5] S. Hong, Y. Do, J. Y. Kim, P. Cowan, and G. J. Joo. Conservation activities for the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) in South
Korea traced form newspapers during 1962-2010. Biological Conservation 210:157-162. (2017)
[6] S. Hong, D. K. Kim, Y. Do, J. Y. Kim, Y. M. Kim, P. Cowan, and G. J. Joo. Stream health, topography, and land use
influences on the distribution of the Eurasian otter Lutra lutra in the Nakdong River basin, South Korea, Ecological Indicators
88:241-249. (2018)
[7] T. -S. Chon, Y. S. Park, K. H. Moon, and E. Y. Cha. Patternizing communities by using an artificial neural network.
Ecological Modelling 90:69–78. (1996)
[8] T. -S. Chon, Y. –S. Park, and J. H. Park. Determining temporal pattern of community dynamics by using unsupervised
learning algorithms. Ecological Modelling 132:151-166. (2000)
[9] T. -S. Chon. Self-organizing maps applied to ecological sciences. Ecological Informatics 6:50-61. (2011)
2018 한국수리생물학회 87 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
색지
Poster Session
2018 한국수리생물학회 88 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
2018 한국수리생물학회 89 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Modeling some metabolic pathways
Sangha Kim and Jangmi Kim
Department of Mathematics, Kyungpook national university
[email protected], [email protected]
In this talk, we set up some models to describe the phenomena of cooperative action between
substrates with or without modifier and determine the overall reaction velocities in each of
these cases. We first use the ideas of deriving the reaction velocities of the simplest cases in
Chap. 6, [1] and then extend those to more general situation that might be useful to the analysis
of actual kinetics of metabolism on an in system.
REFERENCES
[1] Nicholas F. Britton, Essential Mathematical Biology, Springer (2003)
2018 한국수리생물학회 90 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
The State-Space Surplus Production Model for Assessing Chub
mackerel (Scomber japonicus) stock in Korean waters
Yu Ri Jung and Saang-Yoon Hyun
Department of Marine Biology, Pukyong National University, Busan 48513, Korea
The Surplus production models have been widely used for fish stock assessments in absence
of age data. The main advantage of these models lies in only a handful of data such as fisheries
catches and the survey index or catch-per-unit-effort(CPUE). State-space version of the models
allowed for incorporation of both process error and observation error to improve flexibility on
interpretation for collected data. Therefore, in this study, we construct a state-space surplus
production model for our data sets comprised of fisheries catches and CPUEs. For illustration,
we applied our model to catch and CPUE data of chub mackerel obtained from large purse-
seine in Korean waters. Parameters in our model were estimated with maximum likelihood
estimators. In this study, we present estimates of intrinsic growth rate( r ), carrying
capacity( K ), catchability coefficient( q ), biomass in time series( tB ), variance of process error
2( )p , variance of observation error 2( )o with corresponding standard errors and
management reference points (MSY; maximum sustainable yield, MSYB ; biomass produces
MSY, MSYF ; fishing mortality gives MSY) as result.
Keywords: state-space model, surplus production model, stock assessment, population dynamics
2018 한국수리생물학회 91 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Analyzing sleep pattern of shift workers via Phillips-Chen-
Robinson model (PCR model)
Jae Hyoung Hong1, Eun Yeon Joo2, Su Jung Choi2, Su Wha Yoon2, and Jae Kyoung Kim1
1) Department of Mathematical Sciences, KAIST,
2) Department of Nursing, Samsung Medical Center
Presenting Author: Jae Hyoung Hong, [email protected]
Increment of the around-the-clock service in modern society yield the increment of shift
work. As a result, nowadays more than 20% of population in the world work shift. As shift
work schedule inevitably has increased, the risk of shift work is also presented including the
increment of risk for disease, such as cardiovascular-disease and cancer. There has been
several approaches to analyze effect of shift work through mathematical modeling, however
few studies have been applied mathematical model to actual data. Here, we applied the
Phillips-Chen-Robinson model (PCR model), one of the human sleep process model, to
analyze actual data of nurses who work in Samsung-hospital. We modify the PCR model with
light actography of nurses who work shift to fit the irregular and personal sleep/wake timing.
As a result we find a critical factor which has strong correlation with sleep quality. By using
this factor we find a new sleep model which provides best sleep time when the best sleep
quality can achieve.
2018 한국수리생물학회 92 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Sex Ratio Variations in The Haploid Model
Minjae Kim and Seung Ki Baek
Department of Physics, Pukyong National University
A question in evolutionary biology is why the number of males is approximately equal to that
of females in many species. The haploid model is one of the simplest ways to explain it. The
model has the following assumptions: (1) Males and females mate at random. (2) An allele acts
on the mother to determine the progeny sex ratio. (3) The offspring inherits the allele from
either side of the parents with equal probability. Under invasion-fixation dynamics with a
vanishingly small mutation rate, the model results in the 1:1 sex ratio. In this study, however,
we argue that the sex ratio deviates from 1:1 for a finite mutation rate. The reason is that the
system is perturbed to a greater extent by female-biasing mutants before returning to the
original sex ratio. This finding shows how the sex ratio is affected by mutation in a systematic
way.
REFERENCES
[1] S. West, Sex Allocation, Princeton University Press (2009)
[2] Ian C. W. hardy, Sex Ratios (Concepts and Research Methods), Cambridge University Press (2002)
2018 한국수리생물학회 93 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Mathematical model of highly pathogenic avian influenza
epidemic 2016-2017 in Korea
Youngsuk Ko1, Jonggul Lee2, Junho Lee1, and Eunok Jung1
1 Department of Mathematics, Konkuk University
2 National Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Konkuk University
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N6 caused outbreak in Korea since
November 16, 2016. We focused on two neighborhood regions Eumsung-gun and Jincheon-
gun which have most dense poultry farm density and significant infection case number. Our
assumption is that if we divide those regions into smaller patches then there would be certain
pattern shows how patches are interacting among themselves after first infection and the pattern
is changed by control strategy such as standstill or patch access restriction. We construct a SIR-
type patch model for the HPAI outbreak by using transmission kernel. About type of poultry,
because of their different sensitivity to HPAI, we divided SIR groups into SIR groups of duck
farms and chicken farms. In any state, there are culling term and those for uninfected or
unidentified states is pre-emptive culling which has purpose to stop wide-spreading infection
by culling infection-unidentified farms.
REFERENCES
[1] G. Chowell, A. L. Rivas, N. W. Hengartner, J. M. Hyman, and C. Castillo-Chavez. The role of spatial mixing
in the spread of foot-and-mouth disease, Preventive
Veterinary Medicine, 53(4), 297-314 (2006)
[2] T. Kim, W. Hwang, A. Zhang, S. Sen, and M. Ramanathan. Multi-agent modeling of the South Korean avian
influenza epidemic. BMC Infectious Diseases, 10(5): 236 (2009)
[3] R. Spickler, W. Trampel, A.Roth, The onset of virus shedding and clinical signs in chockens infected with
high-pathogenicity and low pathogenicity avian influenza viruses, Avian Pathology, 557-559 (2008)
2018 한국수리생물학회 94 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Synergetic effect of bortezomib on oncolytic virus:
signaling pathways
Jun Ho Lee,1, Ji Young Yoo,3, Balveen Kaur,3, Yang Jin Kim,1,2
1 Department of Mathematics, Konkuk University, Seoul 05029, Korea
2 Department of Mathematics, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA
3 Department of Neurosurgery, University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, TX 77030, USA
* Correspondence: Yangjin Kim, [email protected]
Tumor growth is a complex evolutionary process driven by dynamic feedback between a
heterogeneous cell population and selection pressures from the tumormicroenvironment (TME)
[2]. Glioblastoma is also characterized by tumor cells that hijack immune system cells in a
deadly symbiotic relationship [1]. In this paper we consider bortezomib-induced ER stress,
appotosis and synergetic cell killing in oncolytic viral therapy. Using a multi-scale PDE model,
we first develop an ODE model for the IkB-proteasome- NFkB -Bcl-2- BAX intracellular
signaling network in response to various levels of bortezomib in the absence and presence of
oHSV. This will determine the cell fate of glioma cell, i.e., anti-apoptosis, apoptosis, and
necroptosis from the IkB-proteasome- NFkB -Bcl-2- BAX core control system. In a series of
experiments by Yoo et al (2014, 2016, Clinical cancer research [3,4[), experimentalists found
that the combination therapy (bortezomib+oHSV) can significantly reduce the tumor size.
Therefore, we study the detailed dynamics of the core control system and overal dynamics of
the combination therapy so that we can better control the aggressive tumor, glioblastoma. We
consider the densities of uninfected tumor cells, infected tumor cells, necrotic tumor cells, and
oncolytic viruses (oHSV), and concentration of diffusible bortezomib and intracellular
molecules (NFkB, IkB, BAX, and RIP2). We first compare our simulation results with
experimental data and test several hypotheses on anti-cancer strategies.
REFERENCES
[1] Yangjin Kima, Ji Young Yooc, Tae Jin Leec , Joseph Liue, Jianhua Yuf, Michael A Caligiurif, Balveen Kaurc,
and Avner Friedmana, Complex Role of NK cells in regulation of OV-Bortezomib therapy, PNAS, in revision
(2017)
[2] Yangjin Kim, Hyejin Jeon, and Hans Othmer, The role of the tumor microenvironment in glioblastoma: A
mathematical model, IEEE Trans Biomed Eng (IF 2.347), 64(3):519-527, March 2017.
[3] Yoo J, et al. (2014) Bortezomib-induced unfolded protein response increases oncolytic hsv-1 replication
resulting in synergistic antitumor effects. Clin Cancer Res 20(14):3787–3798.
[4] Yoo J, et al. (2016) Bortezomib treatment sensitizes oncolytic hsv-1 treated tumors to nk cell immunotherapy.
Clin Cancer Res pii: clincanres.:1003.2016.
2018 한국수리생물학회 95 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Modeling for Mathematical Biology
Sae eun Lee
Department of Mathematics, Kyung book National University
In this talk, I present a small-amplitude pressure wave in mathematical physiology.
Let P be the excess pressure generated by the heart(i.e. the difference between the actual
pressure and the resting pressure)
Then conservation of momentum demands the
.
Where ρA(0, t)u(0, t) is the rate at which mass enters the vessel across the surface x = 0,
so that ρA(0, t)𝑢2(0, t) is the rate at which momentum enters the vessel across this surface.
So I present the derivation the some equation and the method to solve it.
REFERENCES
[1] James Keener and James Sneyd, mathematical Physiology, 470-478, Springer.
[2] Lawrence C. Evans, Partial differential Equations, Amer. Mathematical Society.
[3] Stanley J. Farlow, Partial Differential Equations for Scientists and Engineers, Dover publications, Inc.
2018 한국수리생물학회 96 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Agent-Based Simulation of the two-dimensional Patlak-Keller-
Segel equation
Gyu Ho Bae1, Seung Ki Baek1, Su Do Yi2, and Beom Jun Kim3
1Department of Physics, Pukyong National University, Korea
2Department of Physics and Astronomy, Seoul National University, Korea
3Department of Physics, Sungkyunkwan University, Korea
We numerically analyze the two-dimensional Patlak-Keller-Segel model to study chemotactic
behavior of living organisms. This model consists of a pair of partial differential equations
describing the interaction between the density field of the organisms and that of the chemicals. A
homogeneous distribution is a trivial solution of this model, but it loses stability and evolves into a
sharply peaked distribution when the total amount of the organisms exceeds a certain threshold.
We have performed agent-based simulations to estimate the threshold, and the result is consistent
with that of linear stability analysis.
REFERENCES
[1] Keller, Evelyn F., and Lee A. Segel. "Initiation of slime mold aggregation viewed as an instability." Journal
of Theoretical Biology 26.3 (1970): 399-415.
[2] Fatkullin, Ibrahim. "A study of blow-ups in the Keller–Segel model of chemotaxis." Nonlinearity 26.1 (2012):
81.
2018 한국수리생물학회 97 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
A Length-based Model for Assessing the chub mackerel Scomber
japonicus population in Korean waters
Jinwoo Gim and Saang-Yoon Hyun
Department of Marine Biology, Pukyong National University, Busan 48513, Korea
Fish ages are fundamental information in fish stock assessment. However, getting data about
the fish body size is much easier. For this reason, there has been a lot of studies to bridge age
and length (e.g., LFA (Length frequency analysis)). We constructed a length-based population
model that utilizes commercial catch information (length frequency, yield and catch-per-unit-
effort (CPUE)). There are several assumptions in our model. First, the number of maximum
age is fixed. Second, the probability mass function (pmf) of the length of the individuals of a
cohort at the youngest age of recruitment is discrete normal. Third, the cohort is separable into
pmf of length and the number of individual fish which propagate through time. Fourth, the year
is divided into two parts, with fishing taking place in one part and growth in the other. Fifth,
the growth of individual fish is given by von Bertalanffy growth model with an additive error.
Sixth, the weight of individual fish of size is given by an allometric function of length. The
model contains population parameters for annual recruits, growth, mortality, catchability and
selectivity. Annual biomass and yield can be calculated as the derived parameters. The fitting
procedure between data and model will be implemented by ADMB (Automatic differentiation
model builder). By ADMB, we can calculate not only point estimates of parameters but also
the uncertainty in those estimates. For illustration we use data about lengths of Korean
mackerel Scomber japonicus caught by purse-seine fisheries from 2000-2017.
2018 한국수리생물학회 98 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
How can a failure in immune balance (Th17, Neutrophil, Tregs) lead to
tumor invasion in lung cancer development: A Mathematical model
Yangjin Kim1,2, Donggu Lee1, Junho Lee1, Seongwon Lee3, Hyewon Kang4 and Sean Lawler5
Department of Mathematics, Konkuk University
Mathematical Biosciences Institute, Ohio State University
Division of Mathematical Model, National Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Maryland
Department of Neurosurgery, Brigham and Womens Hospital & Harvard Medical [email protected]
Cancer cell invasion is a complex process that involves mutual interactions between a tumor
and tumor microenvironment (TME)[1,2]. In the lung, the T helper cells (Th1/Th2/Th17) play
a signficant role in regulation of many diseases such as asthma and lung cancer [3,4,5]. In this
study we consider complex interactions between a lung tumor and immune cells such as N1
and N2 neutrophil, T helper cell (Th1, Th2, Th17), T regs, and other T cells. There are two
types of neutrophils, N1 and N2 phenotype. The N1 phenotype acts as classical immune cells,
i.e, they attack and kills the tumor cells but the other type (N2 phenotype) is highly associated
with other proactive tumor promotors to enhance the tumor activities [6]. Of course, there is a
continuous spectrum between these types but these types at the end of the spectrum ray play a
significant role in regulating tumor cell invasion through the extracellular matrix within the
lung tissue by modifying the surrounding microenvironment and interacting with many other
regulating cells such as Tregs and Th17 cells. We study this complex interaction by considering
a system of partial differential equations and identify the key interacting components for cancer
cell invasion. We find that tumor cell invasion can be controlled by modulating the inhibition
components, indicating an anti-invasion strategies. The system shows the bistability behaviors
in response to high and low signaling strength of both IL-6 and TGFbeta. These bistability can
be perturbed by movement of the cancer cells and diffusion coefficient of immune cell-
secreting molecules. We also develop several hypotheses on anti-cancer strategies in the
presence of these immune cells in TME.
REFERENCES
[1] Yangjin Kim, Ji Young Yoo, Tae Jin Lee, Joseph Liu, Jianhua Yu, Michael A Caligiuri, Balveen Kaur, and Avner
Friedman, Complex Role of NK cells in regulation of OV-Bortezomib therapy, PNAS, in revision (2017)
[2] Yangjin Kim, Hyejin Jeon, and Hans Othmer, The role of the tumor microenvironment in glioblastoma: A mathematical
model, IEEE Trans Biomed Eng (IF 2.347), 64(3):519-527, (March 2017)
[3] Yangjin Kim, Seongwon Lee, You-Sun Kim, Yoon-Keun Kim, Yong Song Gho, Hyung Ju Hwang, Sean Lawler,
Regulation of Th1/Th2 cells in asthma development: A mathematical model, Math. Bios. Eng., 10(4), 1095–1133, (Aug 2013)
[4] Seongwon Lee, Hyung Ju Hwang, Yangjin Kim, Modeling the role of TGF-β in regulation of the Th17 phenotype in the
LPS-driven immune system, Bull Math Biol., 76 (5), 1045-1080 (May 2014)
[5] Ji Sun Lim, Seongwon Lee, and Yangjin Kim, Hopf bifurcation in a model of TGF-β in regulation of the Th 17 phenotype,
Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems-B, 21(10), 3575–3602, (Dec 2016)
[6] A.D. Gregory and A.M. Houghton. Tumor-associated neutrophils: new targets for cancer therapy. Cancer Res,
71(7):2411(2011)
[7] A. Mantovani, M.A. Cassatella, C. Costantini, and S. Jaillon. Neutrophils in the activation and regulation of innate and
adaptive immunity. Nat Rev Immunol, 11(8):519( 2011)
2018 한국수리생물학회 99 2018.06.28(목)-6.30(토)
Inter-farm Model for Spread of Foot and Mouth Disease
James Slghee Kim, Yongin Choi, Jongo Park, Pilwon Kim, Chang Hyeong Lee
Department of Mathematical Sciences, School of Natural Sciences, UNIST,
Ulsan Metropolitan City 689-789, KOREA
Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD), an extremely infectious viral disease affecting cloven-hooved
animals, has been a problem in South Korea in the past few decades causing severe financial
damages nationwide in the livestock industry. We establish a mathematical model to examine
the farm-to-farm spread of FMD implementing vehicle movement between farms with Korea
Animal Health Integrated System (KAHIS) data. Also, we establish a weighted network for the
Korea's smallest local unit `Ri' using the vehicle movement in KAHIS data as a weight.