báo cáo chiến lược 6 tháng cuối năm...
TRANSCRIPT
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1
Bo co chin lc 6 thng cui nm 2015 Bc sang giai on tng tc
06/2015 Phng Nghin cu v Phn tch - CTCP Chng khon Bn Vit (VCSC)
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Ni dung
2
Tng quan th trng v kinh t v m
Tng quan cc ngnh v cc m khuyn ngh
-t: PAC
Mi gii chng khon: HCM, SSI, VND
in: NT2
Bn l hng tiu dng: VNM, MWG, FPT, TLG
Ngn hng: VCB
Bt ng sn: VIC, HDG, KDH, NLG
Vt liu xy dng: HT1, VCS
Du kh: DPM, PVD, PVS
Ph lc Danh sch cc m VCSC theo di
Tng kt KQLN Qu 1
Tng kt tnh hnh v m
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Th trng - Bc sang giai on tng tc
3
TNG QUAN
VNI khi ng chm, tng 4,4% trong nm thng u nm, thp hn mt cht so vi mc tng 5,4% ca ch s MSCI EM Index.
nh gi vn hp dn vi PER 2015 t 12,7 ln so vi mc 20 ln ca Malaysia v Thi Lan, v 23 ln ca Indonesia v Philippines.
- PE 2015: Cc m ngn hng 14 ln, hng tiu dng 12,4 ln, cng nghip 8,3 ln, du kh 9,3 ln, BS 16,3 ln.
- PB 2015: Cc m ngn hng 1,5 ln, hng tiu dng 3,2 ln, cng nghip 1,7 ln, du kh 1,7 ln, BS 1,7 ln
Cc m ngn hng v -t c din bin tch cc nht t u nn n nay, tng ln lt 36% v 96%.
Gi tr giao dch trung bnh mi ngy gim 23% xung 100 triu USD trong nm thng u nm 2015 so vi cng k nm ngoi.
Khi ngoi mua rng 148 triu USD trong nm thng u nm, gim 25% so vi cng k nm ngoi.
Tuy nhin, c gi tr giao dch v gi tr mua rng ca khi ngoi u tng trong thng nm.
TNG QUAN KT QU LI NHUN QU 1
EPS ca cc m VCSC theo di tng trng 10%. Nu khng tnh GAS, con s ny l 14%.
Cc m hng tiu dng v cng nghip t tng trng li nhun cao nht trong Qu 1, ln lt l 23% v 17%.
Cc m du kh v ngn hng t tng trng li nhun thp, ln lt 2% v 5%.
TRIN VNG
Chng ti gi nguyn d bo ch s VNI n cui nm t 636 im.
D bo li nhun bt u tng mnh hn trong Qu 2, c bit l BS v hng tiu dng.
Cc m ngn hng s h nhit do nh gi hin ti kh cao trong khi t nay n nm 2016 li nhun s khng tng ng k.
Cc nh u t quan tm tr li n cc m du kh v gi du Brent t u nm n nay tng 38% nhng li nhun cc cng ty
du kh t nay n cui nm vn s thp.
Vic ni room cho khi ngoi c th h tr mnh cc m mi gii chng khon nh HCM v SSI, cng nh cc m blue-chip m
room khi ngoi y nh FPT, MWG, VNM
Nhng n lc Vit Nam c MSCI thng hng ln nhm th trng mi ni cng s l tin tt cho cc m chng khon v h tr
th trng chung.
RI RO
Cc n lc xy o ca Trung Quc ti Bin ng gy mt s quan ngi nhng hin tm l nh u t tng i khng b nh
hng nhiu.
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V m - ng hng nhng cn mt s tr ngi
4
TNG QUAN
Tng trng GDP Qu 1/2015 t 6%, cao nht trong by nm qua.
Tiu dng tng: Tng trng ca tng mc bn l thc t cao nht trong nm nm qua v doanh s -t trong bn thng u nm
2015 tng 60% so vi cng k nm ngoi.
PMI trong thng nm cao k lc cho thy sn xut cng nghip tng trng mnh.
Lm pht di 1%, thp nht trong 10 nm qua.
Xut khu b nh hng do cc doanh nghip trong nc, trong khi nhp khu tng mnh nn cn cn thng mi thm ht.
T gi VND/USD t u nm n nay c iu chnh tng cng 2%.
TRIN VNG
Tng trng GDP c xu hng n nh, c th t mc tiu c nm l 6,2% v nm 2016 l 6,5%.
Nim tin ngi tiu dng mc cao nht trong nhiu nm qua.
Cng nghip ch bin ch to tip tc tng trng mnh.
Lm pht bt u tng trong 6 thng cui nm nhng c nm s di 4%.
Xut khu ci thin nhng cn cn thng mi 2015 d bo thm ht 2,5-3 t USD sau khi thng d 2,4 t USD nm 2014.
TIM NNG TNG TRNG
Ba hip nh thng mi t do c k kt t nm 2014; TPP v Hip nh Thng mi T do Vit Nam EU c nhiu tin trin.
Ngh nh mi v hp tc cng t (PPP) gip y mnh tin cc d n c s h tng trng im nh Sn bay Long Thnh.
RI RO
Cc D tr Lin bang M tng li sut v thm ht thng mi tng c th gy p lc ln tin ng Vit Nam nhng NHNN c th
can thip bng d tr ngoi hi.
N cng gn t trn v lo ngi v thm ht ngn sch quc gia Cc khon vay u i vn trong tm kim sot v gi du phc hi
lm du bt p lc ln ngn sch.
Ph thuc vo nhu cu ti cc th trng nc ngoi trong khi tng trng nhu cu ti cc th trng chnh nh M v EU c th gim
Cc hip nh t do thng mi c th m ra cc th trng mi v c hi mi.
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Ngnh -t Xe thng mi c tim nng tng trng ln nht
5
TNG QUAN
Quy nh v ti trng ti a kch thch nhu cu xe thng mi trong di hn, d bo s t mc cao trong ba nm ti.
Cc nh phn phi xe thng mi, c bit l cc nh cung cp c quyn cho cc thng hiu ln, c th t bin li
nhun trn 10%.
Xe ti hng trung v hng nng ca Trung Quc c tc tng trng cao nht.
TRIN VNG
Qu trnh cng nghip ha v vic Chnh ph tng cng u t vo c s h tng giao thng cng nh a ra ti trng
ti a s gip m bo tng trng trong trung hn mc cao.
Vai tr cung cp dch v logistics ca cc cng Vit Nam phc v cc quc gia ang pht trin nh Lo v Campuchia s
h tr tng trng trong di hn.
Lnh vc ph tng, linh kin -t trong nc vn c bin li nhun gim do cnh tranh gay gt t hng nhp khu.
RI RO
Gi vn hng bn trong lnh vc sm lp v ph tng -t vn ph thuc mnh vo gi cao su, do s bin ng mnh
trong khi gi bn li chu p lc t cc sn phm c gi thnh thp ca Trung Quc.
Sm lp, ph tng -t Kinh doanh/Phn phi
CSM DRC PAC HHS HTL SVC TMS TMT
P/E 2015* 9,0 13,6 10,1 N/A** 8,9 8,2 10,7 8,4
Gi tr vn ha
(triu USD)
120 225 37 134 29 22 66 56
* Da trn k hoch ca cng ty
** HHS s t chc i hi c ng bt
thng ngy 25/06 a ra k hoch
mi sau khi sp nhp vi HGS.
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CSM - Gi bn trung bnh lp bias v khu hao ly i li nhun t lp radial
6
TNG QUAN V CNG TY
Nh sn xut lp xe -t v xe hai bnh hng u Vit
Nam.
LUN IM U T
Sn lng lp radial bn ra trong Qu 1/2015, l ma thp
im, gim 13,9% so vi Qu 4/2014, ph hp vi d bo
ca chng ti l c nm s c 112.000 lp c bn ra
(gp 2,9 ln so vi nm 2014).
LNST Qu 1/2015 trc kim ton gim ng k 30,4% v
bin li nhun gp gim 5,6% xung 21,3%, ch yu do
gim gi bn hng 9%-10% v c thm 25 t ng chi ph
khu hao nh my lp radial.
L nh sn xut lp xe u tin ca Vit Nam ginh c
hp ng phn phi ti M vi khong 4,5% cng sut
nh my lp radial d kin s c phn phi ti y.
RI RO
Gi cao su t nhin u vo d kin s tng t nm 2016
v s nh hng n bin li nhun.
T nm 2018 tr i, Hip nh Thng mi Hng ha
ASEAN (ATIGA) s khin thu nhp khu -t gim xung
0% t cc quc gia thnh vin.
Cnh tranh t lp radial ca Trung Quc.
THNG TIN V C PHIU
Khuyn ngh KQ
Gi 38.700
Gi mc tiu 41.800
TL tng + c tc 11,1%
GT vn ha, tr USD 119
GTGD trung bnh (30 ngy), tr
USD 0,1
Room NN , tr USD 35,4
CC CH S CHNH 2014A 2015F 2016F
Tng trng doanh thu 1,4% 9,3% 9,9%
Tng trng LN trc thu -11,5% 5,8% -7,9%
TT LNST trc li ch CTS -8,0% 6,0% -5,5%
Tng trng EPS -8,0% 6,0% -5,5%
PER theo gi th trng 7,9x 7,4x 7,9x
PBR theo gi th trng 1,9x 1,6x 1,4x
ROE 25,7% 23,4% 19,1%
LS c tc theo gi th trng 5,0% 4,7% 4,7%
(*) EPS c iu chnh cho cc s kin lm tng s
lng c phiu nhng khng c nh hng pha long nh
c tc bng c phiu, quyn mua c phiu (nu c).
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DRC - Bin li nhun t lp bias gim, cng xut mc cao
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TNG QUAN V CNG TY
Mt trong nhng doanh nghip sn xut sm lp hng u Vit nam
vi th phn lp -t khong 13%.
LUN IM U T
L doanh nghip trong lnh vc cng nghip chu p lc t hng nhp
khu d tng trng ton ngnh lnh mnh. Hin bin li nhun gim
mnh hn so vi tng trng sn lng.
Bin li nhun gp ca lnh vc ct li l sm lp bias trong Qu
1/2015 gim 2,2% so vi Qu 1/2014 v 7,3% so vi Qu 4/2014.
Chi ph khu hao nh my lp radial nm 2015 d kin tng mnh
68,3% so vi nm 2014 nu cng ty quyt nh gim thi gian khu
hao trong ba qu cui nm 2015.
Do tnh hnh Qu 1/2015, chng ti iu chnh gim d bo bin li
nhun gp lnh vc ct li l sm lp bias xung 26,5% (gim 1,8% so
vi nm 2014) d gi nh gi cao su t nhin trung bnh s gim 10%
so vi nm 2014.
RI RO
Gi cao su t nhin u vo d kin s tng t nm 2016 v s nh
hng n bin li nhun.
T nm 2018 tr i, Hip nh Thng mi Hng ha ASEAN
(ATIGA) s khin thu nhp khu gim xung 0% i vi cc sn
phm dnh cho -t t cc quc gia thnh vin.
Cnh tranh t lp radial ca Trung Quc.
THNG TIN V C PHIU
Khuyn ngh PHTT
Gi 53.000
Gi mc tiu 57.000
TL tng + c tc 11,1%
GT vn ha, tr USD 225
GTGD trung bnh (30 ngy), tr
USD 0,2
Room NN , tr USD 20,8
CC CH S CHNH 2014A 2015F 2016F
Tng trng doanh thu 16,2% 15,1% 9,9%
Tng trng LN trc thu -9,7% 4,0% 2,9%
TT LNST trc li ch CTS -6,0% 4,0% 5,6%
Tng trng EPS -6,0% 4,0% 5,6%
PER theo gi th trng 13,7x 13,1x 12,4x
PBR theo gi th trng 2,9x 2,6X 2,4X
ROE 29,5% 21,9% 20,2%
LS c tc theo gi th trng 5,7% 3,6% 3,8%
(*) EPS c iu chnh cho cc s kin lm tng s lng c
phiu nhng khng c nh hng pha long nh c tc bng c
phiu, quyn mua c phiu (nu c).
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Mi gii CK Ph dch v s tng nh y mnh pht trin TTCK
8
TNG QUAN
Th trng vn ch s hu vn cn tim nng to ln - gi tr vn ha ch tng ng khong 25% GDP.
Vit Nam ang nhanh chng t th trng cn bin tr thnh th trng mi ni.
Gi tr giao dch trn th trng tng s h tr cc cng ty mi gii chng khon.
TRIN VNG
Room ti a cho khi ngoi tng Bn d tho cho php loi hnh c phiu khng c quyn biu quyt
y ban Chng khon Nh nc xut gim thi gian thanh ton t T+3 xung T+2, cho php giao dch trong ngy (*i
vi cc m thnh phn ch s VN30 v HNX30, do cc cng ty mi gii chng khon c vn ch s hu t nht l 37 triu
USD thc hin).
Giao dch cng c phi sinh Quyn chn ch s
RI RO
Thanh khon tng cng c th khin th trng bin ng mnh hn. Cn c cc bin php qun l ri ro ph hp. Cc
cng ty chng khon s chu trch nhim qun l ti khon.
Cng ty
HCM KLS SSI VND
PE 2015* 13.4 12.7 12.4 9.3
Vn CSH (triu
USD)
109 105 268 85
Gi tr vn ha
(triu USD)
206 82 465 95
* Da trn mc tiu ca cng ty
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Ngnh in ang chuyn sang c ch th trng
9
TNG QUAN
Mc tiu th in ti Vit Nam l 1.104kWh, bng 1/5 mc trung bnh khu vc Chu Thi Bnh Dng.
Gi in ti Vit Nam hin nay l 7,6 cent, thp hn khong 50% so vi cc nc khc trong khu vc Chu Thi Bnh Dng.
Vit Nam hin ang t do ha ngnh in. Hin lp k hoch tng th vi ba giai on: 1) Th trng pht in cnh tranh, 2) Th trng cnh
tranh bn s v 3) Th trng bn l cnh tranh. Chnh ph d kin s hon ton t do ha ngnh in t nm 2023 tr i.
TRIN VNG
Nhu cu in tng mnh 9%-10%/nm v s tng mnh hn so vi cung. Gi in mc thp nn d kin t nay n nm 2020 s tng 18%.
Cc thnh tu ca th trng pht in cnh tranh: 1) Gi trn trn th trng pht in cnh tranh c iu chnh tng 47% t nm 2012 n nm
2014; v 2) Quy m ca th trng pht in cnh tranh d kin s t 70% cng sut c c nc trong nm 2015 t mc 42% nm 2014. Chnh
ph tha nhn khng kinh ph p ng y nhu cu in v do phi chp nhn gi in cnh tranh hn thu ht u t nc ngoi.
Cc cng ty hin ang hng li hay gp bt li: Gi cho thy in trn th trng pht in cnh tranh tng 25% trong giai on 2013-6 thng u
2014 trong khi gi cho nhit in trn th trng pht in cnh tranh tng 8%-10% cng trong giai on ny. Hin giai on mt hon tt v Vit
Nam ang bc vo giai on hai (th trng cnh tranh bn s). D kin s c t nht nm nh mua s thay v ch mt nh hin nay.
RI RO
L do chnh lch t gi ngoi hi pht sinh t cc khon vay bng ngoi t (yen Nht, Euro, dollar)
Thy in Nhit in / Kh
VSH SJD CHP SHP NT2 PPC REE
PE 2015* 10,3 7,9 11,9 12,0 9,7 11,4 7,5
Gi tr vn ha
(triu USD)
133 61 103 79 290 319 318
* Da trn mc tiu ca cng ty
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NT2 - Nh my in hin i nht
10
TNG QUAN V CNG TY
NT2 l mt trong nhng nh my nhit in dng kh hin i nht v
mi nht ti min Nam, mi nm cung cp trung bnh 4,5 t kWh in,
tng ng 4,5% lng in cung cp ca c nc.
LUN IM U T
Nh my in dng kh hin i nht Vit Nam, s dng cng ngh
chu k kh ca Siemens (c), gip gim n 21% lng kh t nhin
tiu th so vi cng ty BTP, ti thiu ha t l kh s dng ni b v
tiu hao (1,5%).
Hp ng mua bn in 10 nm bng USD, chim 80%-90% sn
lng, m bo gi bn n nh v phn chi ph ln nht (kh t
nhin) c chuyn sang cho Tp on in lc Vit Nam. Ngun kh
kh c m bo nh hp ng ko di 25 nm.
c t ti khu vc c nhu cu in ln nht Vit Nam nn m bo
hiu sut s dng ln n 65%-70% trong ba nm ti.
NT2 hin ang xin giy php xy dng nh my mi cng sut
750MW n nm 2020 tng gp i cng sut.
RI RO
Sn lng bn ra thay i 5% s khin gi mc tiu thay i 14%
Ri ro t t gi ngoi hi v ngn hn th vn gp bt li trn th
trng pht in cnh tranh
THNG TIN V C PHIU
Khuyn ngh MUA
Gi 23.700
Gi mc tiu 29.300
TL tng + c tc 30,0%
GT vn ha, tr USD 277
GTGD trung bnh (30 ngy), tr
USD 0,1
Room NN , tr USD 24,9
CC CH S CHNH 2014A 2015F 2016F
Tng trng doanh thu 20,1% -8,4% -5,8%
Tng trng LN trc thu 46,5% 47,0% -5,2%
TT LNST trc li ch CTS 46,5% 47,0% -5,2%
Tng trng EPS 46,5% 47,0% -5,2%
PER theo gi th trng 9,4x 6,4x 6,8x
PBR theo gi th trng 1,3x 1,2x 1,1x
ROE 45,2% 22,9% 16,8%
LS c tc theo gi th trng 8,6% 6,3% 6,3%
(*) EPS c iu chnh cho cc s kin lm tng s
lng c phiu nhng khng c nh hng pha long nh
c tc bng c phiu, quyn mua c phiu (nu c).
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Hng tiu dng - Tng trng mnh nhng cnh tranh ngy cng gay gt
11
TNG QUAN
Tiu dng trong nc phc hi mnh nhng cnh tranh gay gt khin chi ph qung co v khuyn mi tng theo.
Cc tp on bn l tch cc tng s lng ca hng, trong cc doanh nghip trong nc nh Vingroup m rng chui ca hng tin li
Vinmart+ cng nh p dng cc m hnh bn l mi vi VinFashion cn cc nh bn l ln ca nc ngoi nh Aeon Group, BJC v Central Group
cng tng s lng ca hng; cc hng bn l nc ngoi mi tham gia gm c Gucci v Hollys Coffee (Hn Quc).
Cc nh bn l thc phm ung ca Vit Nam t mc tng trng cao nht khu vc Chu Thi Bnh Dng trong Qu 1 trong khi cc
nh bn l xa x phm v hng ha l tch cc nht trong vic m rng mng li ca hng.
TRIN VNG
Tiu dng trong nc tng mnh nh nn kinh t v m cng nh nim tin ngi tiu dng tip tc ci thin..
Gi nguyn liu thp s h tr li nhun, nhng hin tng El Nino dn n ma ma n mun c th o ngc tnh hnh, khin bin li nhun
gp mt s doanh nghip gim, c th l thc phm v ung ng gi.
Vic thm nhp th trng ca cc tp on bn l ln ca nc ngoi v vic m rng ca cc tp on ln trong nc cng nh nc ngoi hin
hu s tip tc kch thch tiu dng, nhng cnh tranh gia cc nh bn l s tr nn gay gt hn.
RI RO
Cnh tranh gay gt hn v gi nng sn c kh nng tng, khin bin li nhun c nguy c b nh hng.
CHIN LC
nh gi c phiu hng tiu dng tng nhng vn cn hp dn; tip tc u t vo nhm blue-chip.
Nghin cu cc m t c ch hn nh vn phng phm, hng gia dng, v.v. nhng ang c mc gi r so vi cc m hng tiu dng nhanh v
bn l truyn thng (v d nh SHI)
Cc doanh nghip u chui gi tr hng tiu dng cng c th mang li nhng c hi u t hp dn v c nhng yu t thc y tng trng
tng t nhng nh gi thp hn.
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VNM - Doanh thu tng mnh nhng chi ph QC-KM nh hng n bin li nhun
12
TNG QUAN V CNG TY
Dn u ngnh sa Vit Nam vi 50% th phn
LUN IM U T
Doanh thu Qu 1/2015 ph hp vi d bo nhng LNST thp hn mt
cht so vi d bo do chi ph bn hng cao hn k vng..
VNM hin ang y mnh chi tiu vo qung co v khuyn mi
tng th phn v y cc i th nh hn ra khi th trng.
Do , chng ti h d bo LNST 4% v gi mc tiu 7% xung
130.000 ng/c phiu.
Gi c phiu hp dn: PER 2015 l 15,4 ln trong khi ca cc cng ty
sa khc trong khu vc l 20-22 ln.
KQLN Qu 1/2015: Doanh thu tng 13% v LNST tng 12% so vi
cng k nm ngoi.
Doanh thu ni a tng 8,4% so vi Qu 1/2014 n hon ton t sn
lng.
Doanh thu t xut khu bt tng tr li t mc c s thp trong Qu
1/2014, tng 80%, mt phn ng k nh gi bn sn phm tng.
RI RO
Gi sa u vo bin ng VNM hin ang m rng trang tri b
sa tng kh nng t cung cp.
Cnh tranh ngy cng tng cc cng ty nh hn trong di hn s
khng th tr li th trng do cnh tranh khc lit mng qung co
v khuyn mi.
Ri ro v nhn s: Ch tch HQT Mai Kiu Lin vn cha c nhiu
thng tin nhng t vi nm qua VNM trin khai k hoch tm ngi
k nhim.
THNG TIN V C PHIU
Khuyn ngh MUA
Gi 107.000
Gi mc tiu 130.000
TL tng + c tc 25,4%
GT vn ha, tr USD 4.889
GTGD trung bnh (30 ngy), tr
USD 0,5
Room NN , tr USD 0,0
CC CH S CHNH 2014A 2015F 2016F
Tng trng doanh thu 13,0% 12,0% 13,5%
Tng trng LN trc thu -5,0% 11,6% 7,7%
TT LNST trc li ch CTS -7,1% 14,7% 7,1%
Tng trng EPS -7,1% 14,7% 7,1%
PER theo gi th trng 17,6x 15,4x 14,4x
PBR theo gi th trng 5,4x 4,8x 4,2x
ROE 32,5% 32,9% 31,0%
LS c tc theo gi th trng 3,9% 3,9% 4,2%
(*) EPS c iu chnh cho cc s kin lm tng s
lng c phiu nhng khng c nh hng pha long nh
c tc bng c phiu, quyn mua c phiu (nu c).
-
MWG - C phiu tr nn hp dn, KQLN Qu 1 ph hp d bo
13
TNG QUAN V CNG TY
Dn u th trng bn l in thoi di ng v ph kin ti Vit Nam
(th phn 30%) vi chui ca hng ln nht, gm 380 ca hng tnh
n Qu 1/2015 (i th cnh tranh theo st MWG nht l FPT Shop
c 186 ca hng).
LUN IM U T
Doanh thu thun Qu 1/2015 tng 57% v EPS tng 39%, ph hp vi
d bo ca chng ti.
Tnh hnh hot ng tip tc kh quan trong Qu 1/2015, ch yu nh
m thm ca hng mi. Tng trng doanh thu t cc ca hng hin
hu gim xung khong 10% sau khi t mc cao nm 2014.
D kin m thm 106 ca hng Th gii Di ng trong nm 2015.
PER 2015 l 12,6 ln sau khi gi c phiu gim 19% t cui thng t,
thp hn 33% so vi mc trung bnh ca cc cng ty khc cng
ngnh trong khu vc l 16,4 ln.
RI RO
Cnh tranh ngy cng tng t cc i th mi nh Vincom Retail
nhng ban lnh o c thnh tch hot ng xut sc v c li th v
tham gia th trng trc.
T l thm nhp ca in thoi thng minh t mc cao (khong
52% trong nm 2014) c th khin tng trng trong tng lai gim
Cc th loi 1 v 2 ti Vit Nam vn cn tim nng do t l thm
nhp thp hn so vi ti TP. HCM v H Ni.
THNG TIN V C PHIU
Khuyn ngh MUA
Gi 77.000
Gi mc tiu 98.000
TL tng + c tc 27,3%
GT vn ha, tr USD 492
GTGD trung bnh (30 ngy), tr
USD 0,3
Room NN , tr USD 0,0
CC CH S CHNH 2014A 2015F 2016F
Tng trng doanh thu 66,0% 42,0% 26,0%
Tng trng LN trc thu 147,0% 34,0% 24,0%
TT LNST trc li ch CTS 161,0% 34,0% 27,0%
Tng trng EPS 161,0% 28,4% 27,0%
PER theo gi th trng 16,2x 12,6x 9,9x
PBR theo gi th trng 13,5x 7,3x 4,5x
ROE 58,0% 47,0% 39,0%
LS c tc theo gi th trng 0,0% 0,0% 0,0%
(*) EPS c iu chnh cho cc s kin lm tng s
lng c phiu nhng khng c nh hng pha long nh
c tc bng c phiu, quyn mua c phiu (nu c).
-
FPT - K nguyn cho tham vng Xut khu phn mm ca FPT
14
TNG QUAN V CNG TY
Tp on cng ngh hot ng trong nhiu lnh vc, vi th phn
Internet bng thng rng trn c nc ln th hai (khong 26%).
Cng ty cng dn u trong cc lnh vc gii php phn mm, tch
hp th thng v dch v CNTT vi th phn trn 50%.
LUN IM U T
Xut khu phn mm c k vng s ng vai tr to ln i vi FPT
vo nm 2019, khi lnh vc ny ng gp n 30% li nhun trc
thu. Kt qu ny khng phi nh lnh vc phn cng m nh cc k
s phn mm xut sc nht ca Vit Nam.
Trong Qu 1/2014, doanh thu tng 25% v EPS tng 18% so vi cng
k nm ngoi nh lnh vc ct li cng ngh v bn l.
Li nhun trc thu ca lnh vc cng ngh tng mnh 19% nh
xut khu phn mm v s phc hi ca cc lnh vc cng ngh trong
nc.
Nh k ngh Tt m lch ko di hn so vi mi nm v FPT tch cc
m thm ca hng, lnh vc phn phi v bn l tng trng mnh
60% so vi nm 2014.
RI RO
Ri ro chnh tr lin quan n cc hot ng xut khu phn mm
Chi tiu ca Chnh ph vo lnh vc CNTT c tc ng ln i vi cc
hot ng tch hp h thng, gii php phn mm v dch v CNTT
trong nc.
THNG TIN V C PHIU
Khuyn ngh MUA
Gi 44.800
Gi mc tiu 54.700
TL tng + c tc 26,6%
GT vn ha, tr USD 809
GTGD trung bnh (30 ngy), tr
USD 2,8
Room NN , tr USD 0,0
CC CH S CHNH 2014A 2015F 2016F
Tng trng doanh thu 20,8% 14,6% 14,4%
Tng trng LN trc thu 1,5% 13,3% 18,5%
TT LNST trc li ch CTS 1,5% 15,5% 18,8%
Tng trng EPS 1,5% 15,5% 18,8%
PER theo gi th trng 10,9x 9,4x 7,9x
PBR theo gi th trng 2,2x 2,0x 1,7x
ROE 23,7% 23,4% 24,8%
LS c tc theo gi th trng 4,5% 4,5% 4,5%
(*) EPS c iu chnh cho cc s kin lm tng s
lng c phiu nhng khng c nh hng pha long nh
c tc bng c phiu, quyn mua c phiu (nu c).
-
TLG KQ Qu 1 cao, cha phn nh ht li ch gi nha thp
15
TNG QUAN V CNG TY
Nh sn xut vn phng phm hng u Vit Nam vi bn dng sn
phm: bt vit (th phn 60%), dng c vn phng, dng c trng
hc v dng c m thut.
LUN IM U T
Li th cnh tranh mnh: thng hiu mnh, trn 53.000 im bn l
trn c nc, bn hng trc tip cho cc doanh nghip (B2B) v
thng mi in t, xut khu ngy cng tng sang hn 40 nc, kh
nng t pht trin sn phm v sn xut my mc.
Doanh thu t tng trng kp hng nm 15% t nm 2015-2019 nh
tch cc thm nhp lnh vc dng c vn phng v xut khu tng
mnh (h tr t cc FTAs nh TPP).
Bin li nhun gp 2015 tng 2% nh gi nha xung n mc thp
nht trong 5 nm qua, d kin s c phn nh hon ton vo kt
qu Qu 2/2015.
KQLN Qu 1/2015 t mc cao: Tng doanh thu tng 16%, doanh thu
t xut khu tng 35%, LNST tng 18% nh bin li nhun gp tng
1,03%.
Bo lu khuyn ngh KH QUAN v trin vng trong di hn v gi c
phiu bin ng do thanh khon thp.
RI RO
Cnh tranh t hng Trung Quc v cc thng hiu nc ngoi khc
nhn bit thng hiu cao v mng li bn hng rng khp.
Gi nha tng tr li (nha chim khong 65% gi vn hng bn)
quan h lu di vi cc nh cung cp.
C phiu c thanh khon thp s ci thin khi c cc cng ty
chng khon ch n hn.
THNG TIN V C PHIU
Khuyn ngh KQ
Gi 68.000
Gi mc tiu 71.500
TL tng + c tc 7,4%
GT vn ha, tr USD 83
GTGD trung bnh (30 ngy), tr
USD 0,006
Room NN , tr USD 23,6
CC CH S CHNH 2014A 2015F 2016F
Tng trng doanh thu 14,7% 13,5% 14,1%
Tng trng LN trc thu 15,7% 19,0% 10,8%
TT LNST trc li ch CTS 26,5% 20,5% 13,6%
Tng trng EPS 26,5% 20,5% 13,6%
PER theo gi th trng 12,4x 9,3x 8,3x
PBR theo gi th trng 2,5x 1,9x 1,6x
ROE 21,7% 22,2% 21,0%
LS c tc theo gi th trng 2,9% 2,2% 1,5%
(*) EPS c iu chnh cho cc s kin lm tng s
lng c phiu nhng khng c nh hng pha long nh
c tc bng c phiu, quyn mua c phiu (nu c).
-
MSN - TCN l mt ng c mi thc y tng trng trong di hn
16
TNG QUAN V CNG TY
L doanh nghip ln th hai trong ngnh thc phm v ung, c
mt cc lnh vc nh nc chm (dn u th trng), thc phm
tin li (th phn ln th 2) v ung.
Cng ty ln th hai trong lnh vc thc n chn nui (doanh thu 2014
t 850 triu USD)
M vonfram tr lng 66 triu tn, khai thc trong 18 nm.
LUN IM U T
Qu 1/2015 Doanh thu tng 32% v LNST t 4 t ng trong khi l
107 t ng trong qu 1/2014, ph hp vi d bo ca chng ti.
Doanh thu ngnh hng tiu dng tng 22% so vi cng k nm ngoi
nh cc ngnh hng u t tng trng hai ch s.
Hiu sut ca m Ni Pho ci thin. Nim yt m ny trong 6 thng
cui nm s h tr vic nh gi gi tr ca m cho nh u t ng
thi cng b thng tin s minh bch hn
u t vo nn tng thc n chn nui (doanh thu t 1 t USD v
LNST 2015 t 40 triu USD) l mt ng thi tch cc. Khon u t
c mc nh gi hp dn vi PER 7,7 ln.
S d tin mt 400 triu USD cho thy nhiu kh nng s cn mt s
thng v M&A na trong tng lai.
RI RO
Tht bi trong vic tung ra sn phm ung v thc phm ng gi
mi do cnh tranh gay gt MSN chng minh kh nng xy dng
thng hiu trong cc ngnh hng khc.
Dao ng gi kim loi Phn tch cho thy hin gi vonfram ang
di mc bn vng l 350USD/tn.
THNG TIN V C PHIU
Khuyn ngh MUA
Gi 80.500
Gi mc tiu 100.000
TL tng + c tc 24,2%
GT vn ha, tr USD 2.706
GTGD trung bnh (30 ngy), tr
USD 1,1
Room NN , tr USD 354,5
CC CH S CHNH 2014A 2015F 2016F
Tng trng doanh thu 34,7% 28,4% 17,4%
Tng trng LN trc thu 36,1% 11,1% 71,1%
TT LNST trc li ch CTS 139,4% 1,9% 155,2%
Tng trng EPS 163,6% 1,9% 155,2%
PER theo gi th trng 55,6x 54,6x 21,4x
PBR theo gi th trng 4,0x 3,7x 3,2x
ROE 7,3% 7,1% 16,0%
LS c tc theo gi th trng 0,0% 0,0% 0,0%
(*) EPS c iu chnh cho cc s kin lm tng s
lng c phiu nhng khng c nh hng pha long nh
c tc bng c phiu, quyn mua c phiu (nu c).
-
DHG - iu chnh gim gi mc tiu do KQLN Q1 thp v ng k sn phm chm
17
TNG QUAN V CNG TY
Dn u th trng trong nc trong lnh vc sn xut v phn phi
thuc gc v thc phm chc nng
LUN IM U T
1Q15 Doanh thu thun Qu 1/2015 gim 8% v EPS gim 5% so vi
cng k nm ngoi do k ngh Tt m lch ko di hn so vi mi nm
v hng tn kho tng cao trn th trng t Qu 4/2014.
Knh ETC thu hp khin ngy cng nhiu cng ty dc phm chuyn
sang knh OTC, nn cnh tranh tr nn gay gt hn.
Vic ng k s sn phm cho nh my mi ko di hn so vi d
kin. Tnh n cui Qu 1/2015, ch c 90 trong s 158 sn phm
ng k c Cc Qun l Dc Vit Nam cp php.
Chng ti iu chnh gim 12% EPS 2015 phn nh vic u i
thu dnh cho nh my mi thp hn so vi k vng; do gi mc
tiu gim t 118.000 ng xung 97.000 ng.
C phiu b qu bn. DHG hin ang giao dch vi PER 2015 l 10 ln
trong khi trung v PER ca cc cng ty dc khc trong khu vc l 21
ln.
RI RO
Cnh tranh ngy cng tng t knh OTC vi vic nhiu cng ty dc
chuyn t knh ETC sang do quy nh u tin gi t thu thp nht
(Thng t 1) Mng li phn phi rng khp ca DHG l li th ca
cng ty so vi cc i th mi.
Tc ng bt li ca Thng t 1 i vi knh ETC.
THNG TIN V C PHIU
Khuyn ngh MUA
Gi 72.000
Gi mc tiu 97.000
TL tng + c tc 38,9%
GT vn ha, tr USD 287
GTGD trung bnh (30 ngy), tr
USD 0,3
Room NN , tr USD 0,0
CC CH S CHNH 2014A 2015F 2016F
Tng trng doanh thu 15,4% 1,8% 6,6%
Tng trng LN trc thu -7,6% 2,1% 0,0%
TT LNST trc li ch CTS -9,5% 17,4% 4,7%
Tng trng EPS -9,5% 17,4% 4,7%
PER theo gi th trng 11,8x 10,0x 9,6x
PBR theo gi th trng 2,6x 2,5x 2,2x
ROE 24,9% 25,3% 23,0%
LS c tc theo gi th trng 4,2% 4,2% 4,2%
(*) EPS c iu chnh cho cc s kin lm tng s
lng c phiu nhng khng c nh hng pha long nh
c tc bng c phiu, quyn mua c phiu (nu c).
-
PNJ - KQLN y n tng c phn nh, gi c phiu hp l
18
TNG QUAN V CNG TY
Dn u lnh vc bn l trang sc vng vi thng hiu mnh nht,
th phn cui nm 2014 vo khong 21%.
Mng li phn phi ln nht trong s cc cng ty bn l trang sc:
169 ca hng vo cui nm 2014 v khong 3.000 khch hng bn s
(i th theo st PNJ nht ch c khong 32 ca hng).
LUN IM U T
Doanh thu t lnh vc ct li trong Qu 1/2015 (khng tnh CTCP
Nhin liu Si Gn thoi vn trong Qu 3/2014) tng 15% v EPS
tng mnh 46% so vi Qu 1/2014.
Bin li nhun rng tng 140 im phn trm nh ng gp ca lnh
vc bn l trang sc vng cao hn, vn c bin li nhun cao hn so
vi giao dch vng ming.
C c kt qu y n tng ny nh doanh thu t bn l trang sc
vng tng mnh 53% so vi Qu 1/2014, trong doanh thu t cc
ca hng hin hu tng 30% v m thm 7 ca hng.
D kin m thm 37 ca hng trong nm 2015.
KQLN Qu 1/2015 c phn nh vo gi c phiu. PNJ hin ang
giao dch vi PER trt 12 thng l 15,6 ln, PER d phng l 12,5
ln v thanh khon thp (khi lng giao dch trung bnh 30 ngy vo
khong 14.000 c phiu).
RI RO
Gi nguyn vt liu bin ng PNJ lun duy tr mt khong bin li
nhun an ton cho gi sn phm ca mnh.
THNG TIN V C PHIU
Khuyn ngh PHTT
Gi 39.400
Gi mc tiu 40.500
Tng LN cho C (gm c tc) 5,7%
Gi tr vn ha, triu USD 178
GTGD TB 30 ngy, triu USD 0,1
Room KN, triu USD 0,0
CC CH S CHNH 2014A 2015F 2016F
Tng trng doanh thu 3,0% -9,0% 14,0%
Tng trng LN trc thu 28,0% 19,1% 23,0%
TT LNST trc li ch CTS 49,0% 29,0% 22,8%
Tng trng EPS 49,0% 29,0% 22,8%
PER theo gi th trng 16,1x 12,5x 10,2x
PBR theo gi th trng 3,0x 2,7x 2,3x
ROE 18,9% 22,6% 24,9%
LS c tc theo gi th trng 2,9% 2,9% 2,9%
(*) EPS c iu chnh cho cc s kin lm tng s
lng c phiu nhng khng c nh hng pha long nh
c tc bng c phiu, quyn mua c phiu (nu c).
-
Ngn hng mc gi cao nhng vn chim t trng nh trong danh mc u t
19
TNG QUAN
Vic tun th nghim ngt hn cc tiu ch xp hng tn dng nh lng do nh hng ca Thng t 02/2013 dn c phn nh
trn bng cn i k ton ca cc ngn hng.
Cc ngn hng vn ang x l tnh trng thanh khon d tha, th hin bng cn i k ton c ci thin v tng nh li sut
lin ngn hng cao.
Cn ch i thy c cc tc ng ca Thng t 6/2015 nhng cn thn trng vi cc m ang c c ng nm gi vi t l cao
hn quy nh.
TRIN VNG
Thnh cng ni tip thnh cng - din bin ni bt ca c phiu VCB chc chn s m bo VCB c chi ph vn thp nht trong tng
lai gn v d dng hn trong vic huy ng tin gi.
Vic tt c cc ngn hng tch cc tng cho vay khch hng bn l s cho thy cc ngn hng no thnh cng v tht bi trong mng
ny. Chng ti cho rng cc ngn hng c chi ph vn thp nht v qun l ri ro hiu qu s chin thng.
Cc hot ng M&A c k vng gip tng cng hiu qu ca ton ngnh nhng nu cc ngn hng n lc thc hin M&A hon
ton v mc ch li nhun s mang li li ch lu di hn cho c ng.
RI RO
S khc bit trong cng tc d phng ca VCB/MBB v STB/EIB s gy nh hng xu nu chu k tng trng ti Vit Nam khng
ko di.
-
VCB - Vn l m sng gi trong ngnh ngn hng
20
TNG QUAN V CNG TY
Ch yu cho vay cc doanh nghip nh nc v tp on ln,
v c nhiu t do thng mi hn so vi ba ngn hng nh
nc khc.
LUN IM U T
Vn l m ni bt trong nhm ngn hng v kh c th mt v
th ny trong tng lai gn. Cc nh u t mun tip cn s
tng trng ca Vit Nam s thy VCB y hp dn.
Li nhun trc d phng Qu 1/2015 tng ng 24% d
bo 2015 ca chng ti v tng 10% so vi cng k nm ngoi.
T l li cn bin Qu 1/2015 tng mnh 0,16% so vi Qu
4/2014 (d phng cho c nm) cn theo di NIM s duy tr ti
mc ny hay tng trong Qu 2/2015 trc khi chng ti c th
mt ln na iu chnh tng gi mc tiu.
Nhiu din bin tri chiu trong cc ch bo tn dng nhng
khng c g ng lo ngi. VCB hin rt thn trng trong vic d
phng.
RI RO
Thanh khon tp trung vo mt s ngn hng nht nh do
thiu cc la chn hp dn khc.
Thng v M&A do b bt buc chng ti cho rng kh nng
thnh cng rt thp.
Room khi ngoi gim xung di 2% trong 6 thng ti, qua
b loi khi ch s FTSE.
THNG TIN V C PHIU
Khuyn ngh PHTT
Gi 45.100
Gi mc tiu 44.700
TL tng + c tc 1,3%
GT vn ha, tr USD 5.491
GTGD trung bnh (30 ngy), tr
USD
1,5
Room NN , tr USD 97,6
CC CH S CHNH 2014A 2015F 2016F
TT LN trc d phng 12,8% 19,9% 25,6%
Tng trng LN trc thu 2,3% 20,2% 55,1%
TT LNST trc li ch CTS 5,3% 19,6% 59,3%
Tng trng EPS 5,3% 19,6% 59,3%
PER theo gi th trng 24,2x 20,2x 12,7x
PBR theo gi th trng 2,8x 2,4x 2,1x
ROE 10,6% 11,2% 14,4%
LS c tc theo gi th trng 2,2% 2,2% 2,2%
(*) EPS c iu chnh cho cc s kin lm tng s lng
c phiu nhng khng c nh hng pha long nh c tc
bng c phiu, quyn mua c phiu (nu c).
-
Bt ng sn v Vt liu xy dng: Du hiu phc hi
21
TNG QUAN
Tng doanh s bn cn h trong qu 1 ti Tp HCM v H Ni t 9.500 n v (tng 125%); c tng cng 5.150 cn h c m bn, tng
300% so vi cng k nm ngoi, ch yu n t d n phn khc cao cp (Masteri Tho in, Vinhomes Central Park, Scenic Valley).
Quy m m bn trung bnh ca cc cn h/d n quay tr li mc 500 cn h/d n, tng t mc nh giai on 2007-2008.
Th trng vn phng cho thu cng phc hi vi t l trng gim ti cc cao c vn phng hng A v B.
Gi tr nh tn kho ton quc gim cn 67 nghn t ng trong thng 5, thp hn 48% so vi mc nh qu 1/2013 v thp hn 5% so vi
qu 1/2015.
Doanh s thp bn ra (thp xy dng) trong 4 thng u nm 2015 cao hn 16% so vi cng nm ngoi; doanh s xi mng trong 5 thng
u nm cng cao hn 9% so vi cng k nm 2014.
TRIN VNG
D tip cn ngun vn tn dng t ngn hng hn; xut cho gi tn dng 20 nghn t ng mi h tr cho th trng nh thng mi
ang c Chnh ph xem xt; gi tn dng ny c th c p dng trn phm vi rng hn so vi gi 30 nghn t; d n cc khon vay
BS t 334 nghn t vo cui qu 1, tng 10% so vi con s cui nm 2014 (t l n xu i vi cc khon vay BS khong 5,6%).
S lng ln cc d n cn h ang trin khai v s m bn trong giai on 2016-2017; li sut cho thu 6-8% thu ht cc nh u t
vo phn khc ny.
C s h tng th pht trin s tip tc nng gi t ti cc v tr chin lc; gi bn BS nm dc theo tuyn Metro 1 Tp HCM tng
2-5% da trn kh nng kt ni vi tuyn Metro ny; Qun 9 s c hng li sau khi hon tt tuyn ng cao tc Long Thnh.
BS bn l c th s c thc y bi s tham gia/m rng ca cc cng ty bn l BS hng u nh Vivo City t Singapore (Sc Vivo),
Aeon t Nht Bn, Lotte t Hn Quc; cc cng ty trong nc nh Vincom Retail cng ang tch cc m rng mng li bn l.
Lut s hu nh ca ngi nc ngoi mi s c hiu lc t thng 7; nhng ni dung dung chnh ca lut ny vn cn ang c xem xt
nhng c k vng s mang n s h tr cho th trng BS.
Nhng th trng ngch c th trong phn khc t trung cp n nh gi phi chng kh ha hn (v d nh nh ph gi c phi chng).
-
Bt ng sn v Vt liu xy dng: Du hiu phc hi
22
RI RO
Tha cung trong phn khc nh cao cp do nhng t m bn ln gn y + nhiu d n ang trin khai; nhu cu cng b thi phng bi
nhng nh u t/u c trong phn khc ny.
Mc n cng cao ca Chnh ph s thu hp room cho cc gi kch thch trong tng lai ca lnh vc ny.
CHIN LC
Ngn hn
La chn cc m c v th tt nht tn dng nhp hi phc ca chu k BS; cc cng ty BS phn khc trung v cao cp thch hp cho
chin lc ny (KDH, VIC, HDG).
Xem xt nhng doanh nghip c bng cn i k ton c ti c cu nh nhu cu nh ci thin (PDR).
Tn dung xu hng pht trin c s h tng th bng cch la chn nhng ch u t c cc d n cc v tr chin lc (KDH, NLG,
HDG, VIC).
Di hn
t cc vo cc xu hng di hn nh nh gi phi chng, vi nhu cu thc v n nh cao (NLG, DXG).
Tp trung vo cc cng ty c qu t chin lc/c cht lng cao c nh gi da trn quy hoch pht trin th di hn (BCI, VIC,
Novaland).
-
VIC - Doanh s bn nh cng c s lc quan ca chng ti
23
TNG QUAN
Ch u t BS ln nht vi qu t 8.100 ha
Pht trin loi hnh BS: nh , TT thng mi, khch sn
Tham gia vo th trng bn l vo cui nm 2014
LUN IM U T
2015 l nm c li nhun thp do s lng bn giao nh thp
hn cng nh do l t lnh vc bn l mi, nhng doanh s bn
nh s tng mnh thc y LNST nm 2016.
Trong qu 1/2015, doanh thu tng 4% v LNST gim 60% so vi
qu 1/2014, ph hp vi d bo ca chng ti. Kt qu qu
1/2015 hon thnh ln lt 21% v 17% d bo doanh thu v
LNST c nm.
Doanh thu t nh gim 12% so vi qu 1/2014. Tuy nhin,
doanh s bn nh t 15,7 nghn t ng trong 4 thng u
nm 2015, so vi mc 16,4 nghn t ng trong nm 2014, cng
c quan im lc quan ca chng ti v tin bn hng ca VIC.
Doanh thu t dch v khch sn tng 29% so vi qu 1/2014 nh
d n Vinpearl Ph Quc giai on 1 i vo hot ng t thng
11/2014.
Mng bn l t mc tng trng doanh thu 363% so vi mc c
s thp nm 2014, nhng l 88 t ng. VIC ang m rng quy
m cho mng ny.
RI RO
su ca phn khc BS cao cp vn cn ch kim chng -
VIC c mt m hnh pht trin BS nh hon ton khc bit.
p lc bn t tri phiu chuyn i nm 2012 nghin cu cho
thy p lc bn thc t c th ch bng khong 30-35% ca tri
phiu cn li.
THNG TIN V C PHIU
Khuyn ngh MUA
Gi 48.800
Gi mc tiu 68.000
TL tng + c tc 39,3%
GT vn ha, tr USD 3,016
GTGD trung bnh (30 ngy), tr
USD 2,9
Room NN , tr USD 436,3
CC CH S CHNH 2014A 2015F 2016F
Tng trng doanh thu 50,9% 9,9% 71,3%
Tng trng LNTT -44,5% -18,9% 101,4%
Tng trng LNST tr li ch
CTS -53,4% -18,9% 101,4%
Tng trng EPS -52,3% -20,7% 97,5%
PER theo gi th trng 20,8x 26,3x 13,3x
PBR theo gi th trng 3,2x 2,9x 2,3x
ROE 18,1% 11,8% 20,2%
Li sut c tc theo gi th
trng 0,0% 0,0% 0,0%
(*) EPS c iu chnh cho cc s kin lm tng s lng c
phiu nhng khng c nh hng pha long nh c tc bng c
phiu, quyn mua c phiu (nu c)
-
24
TNG QUAN
KDH c bit n l ch u t pht trin nh ph/villa vi qu
t tp trung Qun 9 (pha ng Tp HCM), c hng li t
qu trnh pht trin c s h tng nhanh chng.
LUN IM U T
Kt qu li nhun qu 1/2015 t 26% mc tiu nm 2015, ph
hp vi k vng ca chng ti; doanh thu gim nh ch t 15%
d bo c nm ca chng ti.
K hoch bn giao cn h Mega Ruby din ra chm hn d kin
(ch t 75% d bo ca chng ti) nhng vn ci thin so vi
cng k nm ngoi. D n ny d kin s ng gp ln lt 46%
v 50% doanh thu v bin LLN gp nm 2015.
KDH tch cc u t 281 t ng vo 4 cng ty mi, chng ti
cho rng l nhm thu tm thm qu t.
N lc thu tm qu t tp trung vi khu vc Qun 2 v Qun 9 -
Tp HCM, c 2 Qun ny u thuc v tr chin lc trong quy
hoch tng th pht trin th.
KDH thoi vn ton b 40% c phn ti cng ty TNHH Lin Lp
sau khi khng th ginh c s c phn kim sot ti cng ty,
to ra thu nhp ti chnh bt thng 29,8 t ng trong qu
1/2015.
RI RO
Qu t c s dng vi tc nhanh do h s xy dng thp
cng ty ang n lc tch cc m rng qu t.
THNG TIN V C PHIU
Khuyn ngh MUA
Gi 21.400
Gi mc tiu 28.700
TL tng + c tc 34,1%
GT vn ha, tr USD 73
GTGD trung bnh (30 ngy), tr
USD 0,2
Room NN , tr USD 0,0
CC CH S CHNH 2014A 2015F 2016F
Tng trng doanh thu 443,8% 100,4% 28,8%
Tng trng LNTT NM 93,4% 114,4%
Tng trng LNST tr li ch
CTS NM 119,8% 63,3%
Tng trng EPS NM 30,8% 63,3%
PER theo gi th trng 15,7x 12,0x 7,4x
PBR theo gi th trng 1,1x 1,0x 0,9x
ROE 5,7% 11,4% 13,6%
Li sut c tc theo gi th
trng 0,0% 0,0% 0,0%
KDH - K hoch kh thi vi doanh s nh ph cao v thu nhp t thoi vn
(*) EPS c iu chnh cho cc s kin lm tng s lng c
phiu nhng khng c nh hng pha long nh c tc bng c
phiu, quyn mua c phiu (nu c)
-
HDG - Tnh c bn tt, d n Z756 cha c phn nh ht bi th trng
25
TNG QUAN
HDG trc y l mt n v xy dng trc thuc B Quc phng,
sau c tch ra v m rng sang pht trin BS tn dng
kh nng tip cn c cc khu t thuc s hu ca Qun i
trc y.
LUN IM U T
LNST qu 1/2015 t 4,5 t ng (gim 61,5% so vi qu 1/2014),
t 2,5% k hoch nm 2015 ca cng ty cng nh d bo ca
chng ti, do qu trnh bn giao chm hn d kin l cui cng
ca cc cn h d n H Parkview - c bt u t ngy
31/3. D n ny d kin s ng gp ln lt 32% v 54% doanh
thu v bin LN gp nm 2015.
Doanh thu t xy dng gim 40% so vi cng k nm trc do k
ngh l di ngy hn.
Vic thng lng ph s dng t ca d n Z756 vi cc c
quan c thm quyn vn ang din ra; d n ny d kin s ng
th vo cui thng 7, ng gp 9,7 nghn t ng doanh thu trong
giai on 2016-2022; tim nng li nhun to ln vn cha c
th trng phn nh y vo gi c phiu.
RI RO
Ph thuc vo mi quan h vi B Quc phng m rng qu
t - din tch qu t hin ti tng i ln 122ha.
Thanh khon c phiu kh yu (di 100 nghn USD/ngy) - tnh
minh bch v cc thng tin cng b ang c ci thin.
Gi tr nh gi ph thuc nhiu vo tin d n Z756 - ang
trin khai thm nhiu d n song song lm gim s ph thuc
vo Z756.
THNG TIN V C PHIU
Khuyn ngh MUA
Gi 29.400
Gi mc tiu 37.500
TL tng + c tc 27,6%
GT vn ha, tr USD 88
GTGD trung bnh (30 ngy), tr
USD 0,1
Room NN , tr USD 23,4
CC CH S CHNH 2014A 2015F 2016F
Tng trng doanh thu 57,2% -5,2% 30,6%
Tng trng LNTT 16,7% -7,4% 30,5%
Tng trng LNST tr li ch
CTS 20,9% -2,6% 32,4%
Tng trng EPS 20,9% -2,6% 32,4%
PER theo gi th trng 13,6x 13,9x 10,5x
PBR theo gi th trng 2,3x 2,1x 2,0x
ROE 17,2% 14,1% 16,0%
Li sut c tc theo gi th
trng 0,0% 0,0% 0,0%
(*) EPS c iu chnh cho cc s kin lm tng s lng c
phiu nhng khng c nh hng pha long nh c tc bng c
phiu, quyn mua c phiu (nu c)
-
NLG Tch cc pht trin nh yu t c bn tt
26
TNG QUAN
Vi hn 20 nm kinh nghim, NLG ang nh v l ch u t cn
h gi phi chng hng u. NLG hin ang c qu t ln ti Tp
HCM (77ha). Tuy nhin, cng ty vn c k hoch tng thm qy
t (6-8 ha/nm).
LUN IM U T
LNST qu 1/2015 kh quan ln u tin trong vng 3 nm qua khi
doanh thu tng 267% so vi qu 1/2014
Vic ci thin doanh thu l khng qu bt ng vi 651 t ng
doanh thu cha ghi nhn c chuyn t nm 2014.
Ci thin bin LN gp 11,6% so vi qu 1/2014 l do chi ph bn
hng c ghi nhn cao bt thng trong qu 1/2014, cng nh
ghi nhn doanh s cc d n c bin LN gp cao hn trong qu
1/2015.
Khon doanh thu ti chnh bt thng t vic ghi nhn li th
thng mi m chim 32,4 t ng trong li nhun qu 1.
S tham gia ca mt vi i tc chin lc gip NLG c vn
y mnh pht trin d n.
RI RO
Din bin chm ti d n Long An chin 51% tng s hng tn
kho - ang tch cc tm kim i tc cho d n ny.
C kh nng t l pha long ln n 16% t t pht hnh ring
l, ESOP v c phiu u i cho ban lnh o cng b
Thiu thanh khon c phiu - cc chng trnh trn c th gia
tng t l c phiu th ni.
THNG TIN V C PHIU
Khuyn ngh KQ
Gi 19.000
Gi mc tiu 20.300
TL tng + c tc 6,8%
GT vn ha, tr USD 113
GTGD trung bnh (30 ngy), tr
USD 0,02
Room NN , tr USD 0,0
CC CH S CHNH 2014A 2015F 2016F
Tng trng doanh thu 44,1% 103,9% 72,6%
Tng trng LNTT 150,4% 76,2% 110,7%
Tng trng LNST tr li ch
CTS 350,2% 96,5% 118,0%
Tng trng EPS 226,2% 76,5% 117,2%
PER theo gi th trng 27,8x 15,8x 7,3x
PBR theo gi th trng 1,4x 1,2x 1,1x
ROE 5,8% 8,6% 15,7%
Li sut c tc theo gi th
trng 3,7% NA NA
(*) EPS c iu chnh cho cc s kin lm tng s lng c
phiu nhng khng c nh hng pha long nh c tc bng c
phiu, quyn mua c phiu (nu c)
-
NBB - Din bin qu 1 km kh quan; c kh nng l mc tiu thu tm
27
TNG QUAN
NBB l mt ch u t c qu t ln nhng gp kh khn v
vn, Cng ty va nhn c s h tr t nh u t nc ngoi
cng nh l mt mc tiu tim nng cho nh u t chin lc
trong nc (HSX: CII).
LUN IM U T
Trong qu 1/2015, doanh thu tng 21% nhng LNST gim 97% do
mc c s cao vi thu nhp ti chnh t thoi vn khi d n BOT
c ghi nhn trong qu 1/2014.
NBB ang thoi vn khi cc d n ngoi ngnh, bao gm m
granite ( hon thnh), m Titanium, v trung tm thng mi
Bc Liu. Vic ny c th gip cng ty nhn c ngun tin
khong 240 t ng trong nm 2015.
HQT chp thun qu trnh tng c phn ca CII t 24% ln
45% thng qua khp lnh v/hoc pht hnh ring l vi gi ti
thiu 27.000 ng/CP.
RI RO
Ph thuc ln vo vn u t t cc ngun khc (Creed & CII)
pht trin d n - CII thu tm.
3 d n ang pht trin ti TPHCM tp trung atrong bn knh 1km
to ra ri ro tha cung, cng nh chu nh hng ca iu kin
nhu cu/gi c trong cng mt khu vc - chia giai on d n
trnh nhng t m bn trng lp.
THNG TIN V C PHIU
Khuyn ngh PHTT
Gi 25.400
Gi mc tiu 23.500
TL tng + c tc -4,3%
GT vn ha, tr USD 68
GTGD trung bnh (30 ngy), tr
USD 0,3
Room NN , tr USD 7,9
CC CH S CHNH 2014A 2015F 2016F
Tng trng doanh thu 14,1% 17,0% 419,0%
Tng trng LNTT 13,8% 48,6% 319,3%
Tng trng LNST tr li ch
CTS 40,6% 60,1% 334,0%
Tng trng EPS 29,7% 60,1% 274,2%
PER theo gi th trng 41,7x 26,0x 7,0x
PBR theo gi th trng 0,9x 0,9x 0,9x
ROE 2,5% 3,7% 14,1%
Li sut c tc theo gi th
trng 3,9% 3,1% NA
(*) EPS c iu chnh cho cc s kin lm tng s lng c
phiu nhng khng c nh hng pha long nh c tc bng c
phiu, quyn mua c phiu (nu c)
-
DXG - gii quyt tranh chp, mng mi gii tng trng n tng
28
TNG QUAN
DXG l doanh nghip mi gii BS hng u vi mng li phn
phi rng khp, n lc tn dng 10 nm kinh nghim trong lnh
vc mi gii chuyn hng vo pht trin BS.
LUN IM U T
LNST qu 1/2015 t 37 t ng (tng 71,8% so vi qu 1/2014),
vt d bo ca chng ti 10 t ng v chim 13,7% k hoch
nm 2015, c dn dt bi tng trng mng mi gii.
Doanh thu mng mi gii tng 8 ln nh vo s phc hi ca th
trng, b p cho doanh s bn nh t cc d n khng c ng
gp trong 1Q15.
Tranh chp lin quan n vic bn trng cc cn h ti d n Gia
Ph c th s khng nh hng n cng ty con t Xanh ng
ca DXG; ch u t Gia Ph b buc trch nhim cho 1/4 v
kin, 3 v cn li c th s c kt qu tng t.
Tnh n cui qu 1/2015, DXG c tnh hnh ti chnh kh tt vi
840 t ng l tin v cc khon tng ng tin (33% tng gi
tr ti sn); DXG ang tch cc thu tm cc d n ang gp kh
khn v vn.
RI RO
Nhng t pht hnh ring l tri phiu vi gi chit khu so vi
gi th trng trong qu kh gy ra s pha long cho cc c
ng hin hu - gn y, DXG bt u s ngun vn vay (1,000 t
ng n tr tri phiu, ngn hng).
THNG TIN V C PHIU
Khuyn ngh PHTT
Gi 16.900
Gi mc tiu 16.800
TL tng + c tc -0,6%
GT vn ha, tr USD 83
GTGD trung bnh (30 ngy), tr
USD 1,1
Room NN , tr USD 25,3
CC CH S CHNH 2014A 2015F 2016F
Tng trng doanh thu 47,8% 205,1% 19,3%
Tng trng LNTT 127,5% 117,2% 18,3%
Tng trng LNST tr li ch
CTS 102,9% 44,4% 18,9%
Tng trng EPS 76,9% 12,3% 18,9%
PER theo gi th trng 9,1x 8,1x 6,9x
PBR theo gi th trng 1,5x 1,3x 1,2x
ROE 24,6% 19,0% 19,6%
Li sut c tc theo gi th
trng 0,0% 0,0% 0,0%
(*) EPS c iu chnh cho cc s kin lm tng s lng c
phiu nhng khng c nh hng pha long nh c tc bng c
phiu, quyn mua c phiu (nu c)
-
HPG KQKD qu 2/2015 s mang tnh quyt nh i vi nh u t tin tng
vo HPG
29
TNG QUAN
Cng ty sn xut thp di hng u Vit Nam vi 23% th phn
tnh n thng 3/2015.
LUN IM U T
LNST qu 1/2015 gim 7% so vi cng k 2014, nhng ph hp
vi d bo 2015 ca chng ti. Bin LN rng gim cn 5% t mc
7% khi gi bn trung bnh gim 7% trong qu 1 lm li nhun
gim nh mc d tng trng doanh s bn ra t 46%.
Trin vng tng lai ca HPG xoay quanh nhng nh hng ca
trin vng v m ca kinh t Trung Quc, khi lng thp d tha
t Trung Quc c y sang cc quc gia ln cn nhm b
p cho lng cu yu trong nc; phn ng ca Chnh ph Vit
Nam i vi cnh tranh t nhp khu, cnh tranh t nhp khu
nh hng ti gi bn trung bnh ca cc DN trong nc cng
nh nhng nh hng n bin LN ca HPG.
RI RO
Cnh tranh t thp Trung Quc/nh my thp Formosa H Tnh
(Formosa c kh nng thm 1,2 triu tn thp di ra th trng ni
a trong nm 2017).
Mng kinh doanh thc n gia sc c th s khng thnh cng.
THNG TIN V C PHIU
Khuyn ngh O-PF
Gi 25.300
Gi mc tu 30.400
TL tng + c tc 24,1%
GT vn ha, tr USD 836
GTGD trung bnh (30 ngy), tr
USD 1,0
Room NN , tr USD 49,9
CC CH S CHNH 2014A 2015F 2016F
Tng trng doanh thu 34,8% -5,5% 15,8%
Tng trng LNTT 26,1% -0,2% 13,8%
Tng trng LNST tr li ch
CTS 60,9% -18,7% 13,3%
Tng trng EPS 26,1% -0,2% 13,8%
PER theo gi th trng 6,6x 6,6x 5,8x
PBR theo gi th trng 1,9x 1,2x 1,0x
ROE 30,2% 20,3% 19,9%
Li sut c tc theo gi th
trng 4,0% 4,0% 4,0%
(*) EPS c iu chnh cho cc s kin lm tng s lng c
phiu nhng khng c nh hng pha long nh c tc bng c
phiu, quyn mua c phiu (nu c)
-
H Tin 1 (HT1) Tng trng doanh s xi mng cao hn k vng
30
TNG QUAN
HT1 l DN sn xut xi mng hng u pha Nam Vit Nam vi
hn 1/4 th phn trong khu vc ny.
Hin ang hot ng 70% cng sut (6,7 triu tn xi mng), t
cung cp 100% nhu cu clinker (phn d tha bn ra trong nc
hoc xut khu).
LUN IM U T
Nng gi mc tiu khi doanh s xi mng bn ra cao hn d kin
ngay c trong thi im qu 1 (ma thp im nht) cng c kh
nng tng cao hn trong cc qu ti; xi mng x ( dng trong xy
dng) tip tc l yu t thc y chnh.
Chng ti cng loi b kh nng HT1 ghi nhn l chnh lch t gi
do ng EUR trt gi mnh (khon n EUR ca HT1 l 70 triu
EUR).
nh gi vn hp dn; PER mc tiu 2015 13,9 ln da theo
CAGR EPS d bo 24%. T l EV/EBITDA tng ng 7,3 ln so
vi 12,2 ln ca cc cng ty cng ngnh trong khu vc.
RI RO
Ri ro k thut trong qu trnh sn xut xi mng
T gi hi oi: ng EUR trt/tng gi 1% so vi tin ng
tng ng vi mc tng/gim EPS 3%.
T l tin mt thp
THNG TIN V C PHIU
Khuyn ngh MUA
Gi 22.300
Gi mc tiu 25.600
TL tng + c tc 14,8%
GT vn ha, tr USD 324
GTGD trung bnh (30 ngy), tr
USD 0,4
Room NN , tr USD 129,9
CC CH S CHNH 2014A 2015F 2016F
Tng trng doanh thu 6,1% 13,0% 6,6%
Tng trng LNTT N/M 90,3% 24,3%
Tng trng LNST tr li ch
CTS N/M 92,6% 27,5%
Tng trng EPS N/M 92,6% 27,5%
PER theo gi th trng 23,3x 12,1x 9,5x
PBR theo gi th trng 1,9x 1,6x 1,4x
ROE 8,8% 14,6% 15,9%
Li sut c tc theo gi th
trng 0,0% 0,0% 0,0%
(*) EPS c iu chnh cho cc s kin lm tng s lng c
phiu nhng khng c nh hng pha long nh c tc bng c
phiu, quyn mua c phiu (nu c)
-
Vicostone (VCS) - Tng trng nh xut khu cao, c tc hp dn v nh gi r
31
TNG QUAN
Nh sn xut p lt nhn to hng u trong nc (VCS ch
tp trung vo sn phm ny) vi cng sut 2 triu m2 v hin
ang hot ng 50% cng sut.
90% doanh thu n t xut khu, 1/2 lng xut khu n M,
1/3 n c v 1/5 n EU (ch yu l B).
LUN IM U T
Tim nng xut khu ln (1) Gi vng s hin din ti M - th
trng m p lt ang giai on tng trng; (2) Tch cc
tm kim m rng th trng xut khu sang khu vc Nam Thi
Bnh Dng.
Ch mi hot ng 50% cng sut, bin LN gp s ci thin nu
cng sut tn dng gia tng v gi du th thp gip cho gi nha
tng hp (50% chi ph nguyn liu) mc c li.
Gi tr nh gi hp dn: PER 5 ln trong nm da theo k hoch
ca ban lnh o, thp hn 30% so vi doanh nghip vt liu xy
dng trong nc, li sut c tc 2015 mc 7%.
RI RO
T gi hi oi 90% doanh thu n t xut khu
C cu s hu tp trung 72,5% c phn c s hu bi A&A
Green Phoenix, mt cng ty c lin quan vi ban lnh o.
Cc i th cnh tranh a ra sn phm c cht lng tt hn
trong khi dy chuyn sn xut ca cng ty c c nh.
THNG TIN V C PHIU
Khuyn ngh KG
Gi 28.600
Gi mc tiu N/A
TL tng + c tc N/A
GT vn ha, tr USD 55
GTGD trung bnh (30 ngy), tr
USD 0,1
Room NN , tr USD 33,6
CC CH S CHNH 2013A 2014A 2015G
Tng trng doanh thu 35,9% 57,4% 26,9%
Tng trng LNTT 23,7% 269,9% 18,9%*
Tng trng LNST tr li ch
CTS 31,1% 196,1% 14,4%*
Tng trng EPS 31,1% 211,7% 35,9%*
PER theo gi th trng 21,2x 7,1x 5,0x*
PBR theo gi th trng 1,9x 1,6x N/A
ROE 8,8% 14,6% N/A
Li sut c tc theo gi th
trng 1,7% 7,0% 7,0%
Ghi ch: (*) da trn c tnh thu sut 22% v li ch CTS 2015
bng vi mc 2014
-
Du kh: Gi du thot y nhng vic hi phc mnh hn ch k vng vo nm 2016
32
TNG QUAN
Gi du th lao dc v chm y ngng 48 USD/thng trc khi phc hi mc trung bnh 65 USD
OPEC quyt nh gi nguyn sn lng du m mc 30 triu thng/ngy trong cuc hp thng 6, nhng sn lng k hoch gi y ch
c xem l mc chun thay v mc sn xut ti a, sn lng thc t mc 30,6 triu thng du trong 5 thng u tin nm 2015.
Tnh n 31/5/2015, s lng gin khoan hot ng ti M gim cn 889 gin, ch bng mt na so vi con s 1.931 gin khoan thi
im thng 9/2014, nhng sn lng du th ti M tng vt ln mc cao nht trong 43 nm vi 9,6 triu thng/ngy vo tun l kt thc
ngy 22/5.
Ti Vit Nam, sn lng du th tng nh 5% so vi qu 1/2014 trong khi sn lng kh t khng c nhiu thay i.
Tp on Du kh Vit Nam (PVN) tip tc gi mc tiu khoan 60-70 ging du, tnh c ging thm d v khai thc trong nm 2015, gim
10% so vi nm 2014.
PVN quyt tm pht trin d n m kh t L B Mn t ngy 15/6. Dng kh t u tin c d kin khai thc t giai on 2019-2020
thng qua ng ng dn kh khong 7 t mt khi.
Trong khi , Exxon Mobil tip tc khoan thm d d n C Voi Xanh, ha hn mt ng ng dn kh 2-4 t mt khi mi nm.
TRIN VNG
D on chung ca Bloomberg v gi du th Brent c tnh s 61 USD trong nm 2015 v 75 USD trong nm 2016.
Ngun cung v cu trn th trng ton cu s quyt nh gi du th Brent trong khi k vng tng gi ng USD t quyt nh ca Fed tng
li sut vo thng 9 c th s to p lc lm gim gi du th.
Trong bi cnh c nhiu d n c PVN y mnh, cc cng ty cung cp dch v k thut (nh PVD, PVS, PVC, PVB) s l nhng cng ty
u tin hng li mt phn b p cho kh nng bin li nhun st gim m bo vic lm trong thi im du th ang mc
thp.
RI RO
Gi du th ko di mc thp vi gi 60 USD s nh hng n dng tin ca cc cng ty du kh Vit Nam, s gy ra nhng nh hng
bt li n chin lc thm d & khai thc ca cc cng ty du kh, v t lm gim li nhun ca cc cng ty cung cp dch v.
Nhng tuyn b ch quyn ca Trung Quc trn Bin ng c th nh hng n hot ng thm d & khai thc du kh ca Vit Nam,
mc d hin nay hu ht cc hot ng thm d & khai thc u din ra gn vi b bin Vit Nam v cch xa khu vc tranh chp.
-
DPM - Hng li t gi kh u vo thp
33
TNG QUAN
Cng ty sn xut ur hng u vi 40% th phn v kinh doanh
cc loi phn bn khc (NPK, SA, DAP).
LUN IM U T
Tng trng qu 1/2015 tng 25% so vi qu 1/2014 khi gi kh
t u vo gim 33% vi gi du Brent mc trung bnh 55 USD
trong k.
Vi gi du th 60 USD/thng, chng ti d bo gi bn FO vo
khong 350 USD/tn, do gi kh u vo mc 4,97 USD (tr
thu), gim 28% so vi nm 2014.
D n NH3-NPK c trin khai sau 6 thng chm tin l mt
tn hiu tch cc. D n ny s nng tng trng li nhun trong
nm 2017 ln 11% v 14% trong nm 2018 so vi khng c tng
trng nu khng c nh my ny.
Li sut c tc cao mc 8-10% vn l c im thu ht nht ca
DPM.
Gi khuyn ngh MUA vi gi mc tiu 34.200 ng.
RI RO
Gi bn trung bnh phn ur gim 1% => EPS gim 3%.
Gi du Brent tng 1% => EPS gim 1%.
Vic d n NH3-NPK b tr hon ng ngha vi khng c tng
trng trong giai on 2016-2018.
THNG TIN V C PHIU
Khuyn ngh MUA
Gi 29.100
Gi mc tiu 34.200
TL tng + c tc 26,1%
GT vn ha, tr USD 505
GTGD trung bnh (30 ngy), tr
USD 0,6
Room NN , tr USD 122,7
CC CH S CHNH 2014A 2015F 2016F
Tng trng doanh thu -8,0% -3,0% 0,0%
Tng trng LNTT -50,0% 18,0% 0,0%
Tng trng LNST tr li ch
CTS
-50,0% 16,0% 0,0%
Tng trng EPS -50,5% 16,5% 0,6%
PER theo gi th trng 10,1x 8,7x 8,6x
PBR theo gi th trng 1,3x 1,1x 1,1x
ROE 12,2% 13,6% 12,7%
Li sut c tc theo gi th
trng
8,6% 8,6% 8,6%
(*) EPS c iu chnh cho cc s kin lm tng s lng c
phiu nhng khng c nh hng pha long nh c tc bng c
phiu, quyn mua c phiu (nu c)
-
34
TNG QUAN
Nh cung cp hng u cc dch v k thut du kh, t thng
ngun n h ngun, bao gm OSV (tu dch v), kho st a
chn, FSO/FPSO, kho cng cung ng, M&C (c kh), O&M (vn
hnh v bo dng).
LUN IM U T
Doanh thu qu 1/2015 ch gim 13% khi nh tng trng doanh
thu t mng cng (tng 11% so vi qu 1/2014 khi cc hot ng
thng mi v xy dng nh my lc du mi lm tng nhu cu)
v dch v kho ni FPSO (doanh thu tng 163% vi bin LN gp
tng 28%) b p cho s st gim cc mng kinh doanh khc.
LNST qu 1/2015 tng mnh 23% so vi qu 1/2014 nh ng
gp mi ca FPSO Lam Sn, vn khng hot ng trong qu
1/2014 - nu loi b s kin ny, LNST gim 9%.
Thng thu hp ng M&C 350 triu USD (tng ng 54% doanh
thu M&C nm 2014) cho thy kh nng nng lc cnh tranh
thng thu ca PVS trong bi cnh du th gi thp.
Nng khuyn ngh ln MUA vi gi mc tiu 32.300 ng v c
phiu b qu bn.
RI RO
Bin LN gp gim 0,3% xung mc 7% - mc thp nhp trong 5
nm s lm gim EPS mc tiu 4%.
Yu t gim thiu ri ro: ginh c cc hp ng h ngun mi.
THNG TIN V C PHIU
Khuyn ngh MUA
Gi 26.500
Gi mc tiu 32.300
TL tng + c tc 26,4%
GT vn ha, tr USD 541
GTGD trung bnh (30 ngy), tr
USD 1,8
Room NN , tr USD 127,8
CC CH S CHNH 2014A 2015F 2016F
Tng trng doanh thu 23,0% -9,0% 0,0%
Tng trng LNTT 3,0% -4,0% 2,0%
Tng trng LNST tr li ch
CTS 15,0% -22,0% 2,0%
Tng trng EPS 11,7% -19,5% 2,3%
PER theo gi th trng 6,7x 8,4x 8,2x
PBR theo gi th trng 1,3x 1,2x 1,1x
ROE 17,0% 13,0% 13,0%
Li sut c tc theo gi th
trng 4,5% 4,5% 4,5%
PVS - Dch v cn c cng l mt im sng
(*) EPS c iu chnh cho cc s kin lm tng s lng c
phiu nhng khng c nh hng pha long nh c tc bng c
phiu, quyn mua c phiu (nu c)
-
PLC - Nha ng tip tc l ngnh kinh doanh ct li thc y tng trng
35
TNG QUAN
Nh sn xut v kinh doanh du nh hng u trong nc cho xe
my v t (14% th phn), 40% th phn nha ng v dung
mi ha hc.
LUN IM U T
LNST qu 1/2015 tng mnh 31% so vi cng k 2014 t 57 t
ng nh nhu cu cao cho nha ng polymer hon thnh
cc tuyn ng cao tc chnh nh H Ni -Hi Phng.
Phn khc nha ng (46% li nhun ca PLC) s tip tc ng
gp ln cho s tng trng. Ch mi c 25% ng cao tc Vit
Nam c hon thnh, PLC l nh cung cp duy nht nha
ng polymer dng trong xy dng ng cao tc.
D qu 1 l c li nhun thp do k ngh Tt Nguyn n ko di,
chng ti duy tr LNST c tnh mc 296 t ng (tng 11% so
vi 2014).
RI RO
Gia tng cnh tranh t cc cc cng ty du nhn nc ngoi
Tin gii ngn chm ti cc d n u t cng => tng trng
doanh s du nhn v lun chuyn hng tn kho chm s GiM
li nhun vi mc thay i 0,5% trong bin LN gp, s lm thay
i EPS 10%.
Yu t gim thiu ri ro: Gia tng ng gp t bin LN cao t
phn khc nha ng (polymer).
THNG TIN V C PHIU
Khuyn ngh MUA
Gi 32.500
Gi mc tiu 39.200
TL tng + c tc 25,2%
GT vn ha, tr USD 104
GTGD trung bnh (30 ngy), tr
USD 0,1
Room NN , tr USD 47,2
CC CH S CHNH 2014A 2015F 2016F
Tng trng doanh thu 10,0% 8,0% 7,0%
Tng trng LNTT 36,0% 11,0% 7,0%
Tng trng LNST tr li ch
CTS 41,0% 11,0% 10,0%
Tng trng EPS 41,0% 11,0% 10,3%
PER theo gi th trng 8,2x 7,4x 6,7x
PBR theo gi th trng 2,1x 1,8x 1,6x
ROE 23,9% 25,2% 24,7%
Li sut c tc theo gi th
trng 4,6% 4,6% 4,6%
(*) EPS c iu chnh cho cc s kin lm tng s lng c
phiu nhng khng c nh hng pha long nh c tc bng c
phiu, quyn mua c phiu (nu c)
-
PVD - Gi cho thu gin theo gi du cho thy xu hng li nhun gim
36
TNG QUAN
Nh cung cp dch v ging khoan hng u vi 64% th phn
gin khoan Vit Nam v 55-100% th phn dch v k thut
LUN IM U T
LNST qu 1/2015 gim 19% so vi qu 1/2014 nh d kin do gi
thu ngy gin khon t nng (JU) gim 8% cn 135 nghn USD,
nhng bin LN gp mng dch v k thut tng 3,51% l mt tn
hiu tch cc.
Ban lnh o gim k hoch li nhun 30% so vi con s 100
triu USD trc .
Gi thu ngy gin JU c tnh da trn bin ng gi du th,
mi mc tng 5 USD gi du th tng ng vi gi thu tng
5.000 USD.
Chng ti h LNST d bo 13% phn nh s thay i gi thu
gin JU (135 nghn USD) v kh nng gim gi gin TAD.
Chng ti iu chnh gim gi mc tiu cn 61.000 ng v gi
khuyn ngh KH QUAN.
M hnh nh gi ca chng ti cha phn nh t l tng t cc
gin khoan JU mi (6 triu USD) v mt s lan tip tr khoan (2
triu USD).
RI RO
Gi thu gin khoan JU gim 4% s tng ng vi EPS gim 6%
gi nh t l tng trng mng dch v k thun khoan mc -
30%.
Yu t gim thiu ri ro: Thm mt gin khoan JU trong nm 2016
s lm gim bt tc ng ca gi thu ngy mc thp.
THNG TIN V C PHIU
Khuyn ngh KQ
Gi 52.000
Gi mc tiu 61.000
TL tng + c tc 20,2%
GT vn ha, tr USD 720
GTGD trung bnh (30 ngy), tr
USD 1,5
Room NN , tr USD 77,7
CC CH S CHNH 2014A 2015F 2016F
Tng trng doanh thu 39,0% -27,0% 1,0%
Tng trng LNTT 37,0% -25,0% 1,0%
Tng trng LNST tr li ch
CTS 27,0% -24,0% 1,0%
Tng trng EPS 25,9% -24,1% 1,0%
PER theo gi th trng 6,4x 8,5x 8,4x
PBR theo gi th trng 1,3x 1,2x 1,1x
ROE 24,0% 16,0% 15,0%
Li sut c tc theo gi th
trng 2,9% 2,9% 2,9%
(*) EPS c iu chnh cho cc s kin lm tng s lng c
phiu nhng khng c nh hng pha long nh c tc bng c
phiu, quyn mua c phiu (nu c)
-
GAS - Cha c t bin v trin vng trong hai nm ti
37
TNG QUAN
Nh phn khi kh t c quyn Vit Nam vi 3 d n ang
thc hin, cung cp 10 t mt khi kh t mi nm.
LUN IM U T
Khuyn ngh KH QUAN cho GAS vi gi mc tiu 67.600 ng
C ch gi th trng cho sn lng kh trn bao tiu cha c
p dng trong nm 2015, do LNST gim 18% ch yu do trch
d phng u t ti chnh, nhng vn hon thnh 27,4% d bo
ca chng ti.
D bo LNST qu 2/2015 s khng thay i so vi qu 1 do khi
lng kh kh v LPG bn ra khng thay i nhiu, v c ch gi
kh cha c s thay i.
LNST nm 2015 mc 9,4 nghn t ng, gim 34% so vi nm
2014 vi gi nh gi du th 60 USD, bao gm tc ng t
vic p dng hi t c ch gi kh th trng, bao gm (1) li
nhun c tnh 1.560 t ng cho giai on 9 thng cui nm
2014 v (2) l 411 t ng trong nm 2015.
GAS d kin s u t 5% vo d n pht trin m L B (tr
lng kh 113,3 t mt khi, gp 2 ln tr lng b Nam Cn
Sn) vi tng vn u t mc 4,3 t USD, cng nh 51% vn
trong ng ng 7 t mt khi tr gi 1,1 t USD.
RI RO
Bin ng LNST ph thuc vo gi FO: vi kch bn gi du th
50 USD, so vi kch bn c s 60 USD, gi FO v gi kh u ra
trn bao tiu s gim thm 17%, ko LNST gim thm 22%.
THNG TIN V C PHIU
Khuyn ngh KQ
Gi 62.000
Gi mc tiu 67.600
TL tng + c tc 13,9%
GT vn ha, tr USD 5.394
GTGD trung bnh (30 ngy), tr
USD 1,4
Room NN , tr USD 182,3
CC CH S CHNH 2014A 2015F 2016F
Tng trng doanh thu 12,2% -17,9% -3,8%
Tng trng LNTT 15,5% -32,4% -7,0%
Tng trng LNST tr li ch
CTS 14,9% -33,3% -7,4%
Tng trng EPS 14,9% -33,3% -7,4%
PER theo gi th trng 8,7x 12,5x 13,5x
PBR theo gi th trng 2,8x 2,5x 2,3x
ROE 39,2% 21,3% 17,6%
Li sut c tc theo gi th
trng 4,8% 4,8% 4,8%
(*) EPS c iu chnh cho cc s kin lm tng s lng c
phiu nhng khng c nh hng pha long nh c tc bng c
phiu, quyn mua c phiu (nu c)
-
Danh sch cc c phiu VCSC theo di
38
* Da theo gi ng ca ngy 5/6/2015.
(*) EPS c iu chnh cho cc s kin lm tng s lng c
phiu nhng khng c nh hng pha long nh c tc bng c
phiu, quyn mua c phiu (nu c)
-
Danh sch cc c phiu VCSC theo di
39
* Da theo gi ng ca ngy 5/6/2015.
(*) EPS c iu chnh cho cc s kin lm tng s lng c
phiu nhng khng c nh hng pha long nh c tc bng c
phiu, quyn mua c phiu (nu c)
-
Tng hp li nhun qu 1/2015 - Cc DN phi ngn hng
40
Ghi ch:
Cc DN BS (DXG, KDH, NLG, NBB, VIC) c li nhun khng u do qu bn giao cn h hon thin
D bo cho MSN cp nht kt qu hp nht Masan Nutri-Science, khng so snh so vi cng k do mi thu tm
So snh cng k ca HT1 da theo LN gp/LN t HKD do LNST bin ng v khu hao t gi
JVC khng c LNST qu 1 chun khi doanh s thit b y t ph thuc vo thi im ghi nhn chuyn nhng d n
-
Tng hp li nhun qu 1/2015 - Cc ngn hng
41
-
Tng hp V m
42
NGUN N V CH BO V M 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 1Q15 YTD
GSO % YoY Tng trng GDP (thc) 6,2 5,4 6,4 6,2 5,2 5,4 6,0 6,2 6,0 N/A
Hi quan, GSO % YoY Tng trng xut khu 29,1 -8,9 26,5 34,2 18,2 15,4 13,8 12,0 8,8 7,3***
Hi quan, GSO % YoY Tng trng nhp khu 28,8 -13,3 21,3 25,8 6,6 16,0 12,0 10,0 20,0 15,8***
GSO % YoY Lm pht (cui nm) 19,9 6,5 11,7 18,1 6,8 6,0 1,8 4,0 0,9 1,0
GSO % YoY Tng trng bn l (thc) 6,5 11,0 14,0 4,7 6,2 5,6 6,5 7,5 9,2 8,2
GSO % YoY Tng trng SX cng nghip N/A N/A N/A 6,8 4,8 5,9 7,6 9,0 9,1 7,5
SBV % Trt gi ng VND 5,0 5,4 9,1 10,0 2,0 1,0 1,0 2,0 1,0 2,0
SBV %
LS cho vay di 6 thng ti
cc NHTMCP 15,4 16,4 20,5 20,0 14,0 10,5 8,5 8,0 8,5 8,4
GSO % T l tht nghip 4,7 3,2 2,7 2,0 2,0 2,2 2,1 2,1 2,1 N/A
GSO t USD GDP thng thng 89,7 106,0 115,9 135,5 155,8 170,0 186,0 200,0 38,1* N/A
FIA, GSO t USD Gii ngn vn FDI 11,5 10,0 10,0 11,0 10,5 11,5 12,5 13,5 3,1 5,0
SBV t USD D tr ngoi hi 24,0 16,2 12,4 9,0 23,0 35,0 40,0 45,0 N/A N/A
Hi quan, GSO t USD Cn cn thng mi -18,0 -12,9 -12,6 -9,8 0,7 0,0 2,0 0,7 -2,4 3,0***
Hi quan, GSO % of GDP Xut khu 69,9 53,8 62,1 70,8 73,4 78,8 80,6 84,0 95,0 N/A
FIA, GSO % of GDP FDI 12,8 9,4 8,6 8,1 6,7 6,8 6,7 6,8 7,9 N/A
SBV % of GDP D tr ngoi hi 26,8 15,3 10,7 6,6 14,8 20,6 21,5 22,5 N/A N/A
MOF % of GDP Thm ht ngn sch -4,6 -6,9 -5,8 -4,9 -4,8 -6,6** -4,0 -5,0 N/A N/A
MOF % of GDP N chnh ph N/A 41,9 44,6 43,2 43,3 43,7 46,9 48,9 N/A N/A
MOF % of GDP N cng N/A 52,6 56,3 54,9 55,7 56,2 60,3 64,0 N/A N/A
MOF % of GDP N nc ngoi N/A 39,0 42,2 41,5 41,1 41,5 39,9 42,6 N/A N/A
Tng Cc Thng k (GSO), C quan u t nc ngoi (FIA), B Ti chnh (MOF), NHNN (SBV)
Ghi ch: (*) GDP thng mc thp trong qu 1 do Tt Nguyn n, iu chnh (**) t 5,3%; (***) theo c tnh
ca GSO
-
Lin h
43
PHNG NGHIN CU V PHN TCH PHNG GDCK KHCH HNG T CHC
Gim c T chc nc ngoi
V Thanh T Michel Tosto, M. Sc.
[email protected] [email protected]
(84) 3914 3588 ext. 105 (84) 3914 3588 ext. 102
Trng phng cao cp T chc trong nc
Anirban Lahiri Nguyn Quc Dng
[email protected] [email protected]
(84) 3914 3588 ext. 130 (84) 3914 3588 ext. 136
Trng phng cao cp Trng phng Quan h khch hng
Ng Hong Long Cao Th Ngc Qunh
[email protected] [email protected]
(84) 3914 3588 ext. 145 (84) 3914 3588 ext. 148