peace and security in africa - challenges on the african continent
TRANSCRIPT
PEACE and SECURITY Challenges on the African Continent
by Brenda Chikwe Mofya
Oxfam Pan Africa Policy Advisor – Peace and Security/Governance
Pre-Summit Seminar, 29th June 2016
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FOCUS OF THE PRESENTATION
Peace and security trends – expected
& unexpected developments
AU/PSC interventions last 6 months –
overview
27th Summit – what to expect?
Recommendations/Way forward
29th June 2016
Peace & Security : Trends
Pre-Summit Seminar, 29th June 2016
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Positive Developments
• By close of 2015, large parts of Africa had become peaceful.
In terms of political and social stability Guinea Bissau, Egypt
and Cote d’Ivoire made largest global improvement;
• In terms of conflict events/Battles, fatalities, countries
such as South Sudan, Burundi and CAR witnessed a lot
of improvement;
• Good governance, democracy & development gains also
witnessed in many countries; e,g. Botswana, Ghana,
Mauritius.
• Youngest Continent – 70% of population is under 39 years
of age. Most productive if used well.
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Civil war, SS, December 2013 – 2015
ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project)
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However….Picture still bleak
Red24/Allia ISS
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THE STATE OF GLOBAL PEACE
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Challenges
• Violent conflict continues – South Sudan, Burundi, CAR, Sudan, DRC, Libya,
Mali etc – prostrated WESA, Somalia, Eritrea/Ethiopia (technically) - Africa
currently occupies 60% of UNSC agenda
• Fragile states - flawed democracy, autocratic regimes, corruption, poverty -
Civil war, violent protests, civil strife, xenophobia, unrest
• Civil war, violent protests, civil strife, xenophobia, unrest
• Emerging threats to peace – terrorism and illicit arms flow, Illicit financial flows
– Nigeria, Lake Chad Basin, Sahel region, Djibouti, Libya
Consequently…
• Refugee Crisis: Sub-Saharan African being host to the largest number of
refugees, 4.4 million against global fig. 16.1 (Burundi 221,600, SS 162, 100,
CAR 85,000, Nigeria 68,200, Eriteria 35,000, Somalia 13,700, Sudan 10,900)
• Ethiopia home to– 736, 100
• IDPs - 30+ million
• Migration/Mediterranean
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PSC last 6 months/ 27th Summit Agenda
AU RESPONSE TO THE TRENDS
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AU/PSC over the last 6 months
• Issued numerous communiques on various thematic issues and
conflict situations (more to the almost 600 since 2004)
• Themes: elections, migration, arms control, post conflict
reconstruction, Ebola virus, natural resource, climate change, border
management, ICC, agriculture, UNSC/PSC relations, Women peace
and security, children in armed conflict, violent extremism/terrorism
• Situations: Burundi, Somalia, WESA, Guinea Bissau, Libya, South
Sudan, Sudan, Mali, LRA, DRC
Big question…
Impact??
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Summit…
Decisions on the Report of the Chairperson
on state of peace and security on the
continent, PSC activities
Alternative financing for AU-led peace
support operations; 25% AU fund/ 75% UN
Assessment contribution
Going forward: what should the AU be
considering
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Going forward
Forging links between APSA & AGA
Clarity on the notion of subsidiarity – coordination and
harmonisation of sub-regional responses/difference of
opinions and approaches
Conflict management without real leverage – carrot stick,
coercive power
Decisions vis a vis resource implications
Challenge of consistence of decisions at different levels
CSO engagement – Livingstone Formula/Maseru Conclusions
