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PENGANTARSCENARIO PLANNING
daniel sparringa<[email protected]>
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Pengertian Scenario Planning (SP)
• Narasi atau cerita mengenai kemungkinan-kemungkinan tentang masa depan.
• Berisi uraian tentang apa yang mungkin terjadi, bukanapa yang harus terjadi.
• Bukan prediksi (prediction) atau ramalan (forecasting) tentang masa depan.
• Bukan sebuah rencana atau rekayasa.
• Merupakan deskripsi, bukan preskripsi tentang masa depan.
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Nama lainScenario Planning
• Scenario Building
• Scenario Development
• Scenario Thinking
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Sejarah Scenario Planning• Prinsip-prinsip awalnya dikembangkan di kalangan militer selama dan
setelah setelah PD II;
• Di dunia bisnis, Scenario Planning menjadi salah satu metode untuk “membaca” masa depan;
• Shell Oil Company adalah organisasi bisnis yang menjadikan Scenario Planning sebagai metode yang memiliki aspek ilmiah dan sekaligus seni;
• Ragam Pemanfaatan Scenario Planning saat ini mencakup hampir seluruh bidang, dari tema yang berhubungan dengan masa depan negara, keamanan nasional, lingkungan hidup, perdagangan, hingga Industri, pendidikan, terorisme dan sebagainya.
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Dua Pendekatan Scenario Planning
• Pendekatan Pakar, melibatkan sedikit orang/kalangan tertentu (<50 orang). Misalnya, ”Mont Fleur Scenario” (Afrika Selatan) disebut juga sebagai skenario pakar.
• Pendekatan Dialog, melibatkan banyak orang dari banyak latar belakang (>150 orang). Misalnya, Skenario Indonesia 2010, disebut juga sebagai dialog skenario.
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Tujuh Langkah Penyusunan SP
1. Menetapkan focal concern (FC).
2. Mengindentifikasi driving forces (DF).
3. Menganalisis hubungan antar-DF
4. Memilih DF yang paling berpengaruh.
5. Menyusun matriks skenario.
6. Menentukan ciri kunci tiap skenario.
7. Menyusun narasi skenario.Pus
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Menetapkan focal concern (FC)
• FC merupakan isu strategis yang menjadi perhatian utama; mencemaskan/menggelisahkan.
• Merupakan jangkar bagi pembicaraan mengenai skenario.
• Perlunya time-frame yang jelas
• AWAS!: FC berbeda menghasilkan skenario yang berbeda.
LANGKAH-1
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Beberapa contoh Focal Concern
• Masa depan Industri Garmen Indonesia 2025
• Masa depan ASEAN 2050
• Terorisme Internasional 2030
• Perguruan Tinggi Swasta di Indonesia 2020
• Partai Politik di Indonesia 2025
• Dunia Perminyakan 2050
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• DF adalah pendorong perubahan.
• Identifikasi DF dengan mendaftar sebanyak dan selengkap mungkin hal yang dipercaya dapat mempengaruhi FC.
• Rekonseptualisasi, rekategorisasi, recluster untuk hasilkan DF final.
• DF selalu dinyatakan dalam bentuk variabel.
LANGKAH-2
Mengindentifikasi driving forces (DF)
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Langkah-2: Mengidentifikasi DF
(Lanjutan)• DF yang kurang lengkap menghasilkan
skenario-skenario yang tidak cermat;• Check&recheck: should be comprehensive,
complete, thorough, and exhaustive;• Gunakan “the tip of ice-berg system of thinking,
“STEEP analysis”, “the three arenas”;• “Think the unthinkable”
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Menganalisis hubungan antar-DF
• Memetakan hubungan di antara DF yang satu dengan DF yang lain.
• Memetakan hubungan keseluruhan DF terhadap FC.
• Memberikan penjelasan tentang bagaimana jalinan hubungan itu mempengaruhi FC.
• Perspektif yang berbeda menghasilkan skema yang berbeda: No problem
LANGKAH-3
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Memilih dua DF paling strategisLakukan seleksi berdasar tiga kriteria:• Pilih DF yang memiliki hubungan langsung terhadap FC.
• Pilih DF yang memiliki pengaruh yang segera terhadap FC.
• Pilih DF yang paling kritis (importance and uncertain).• Tentukan dua: paling langsung, paling segera, paling
kritis.
LANGKAH-4
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Menyusun matriks skenario • Tentukan matriks yang terdiri atas sumbu ordinat dan aksis
yang dikembangkan dari dua DF terpilih.
• Tentukan kutub-kutub dari setiap DF terpilih.
• Contoh: DF kebijakan ekonomi: Pro-Kapitalisme–Pro-Sosialisme
Pro-Konglomerasi–Pro-UKMDF kebijakan politik:Pro-Centralization – Pro-Decentralization
Symmetric Decentralization – Asymmetric Decentralization
LANGKAH-5
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Contoh matriks skenario:
Pro-desentralisasi
SKENARIO 1
SKENARIO 2SKENARIO 3
SKENARIO 4
DF 1
DF 2
Pro-UKM
Pro-sentralisasi
Pro-konglomerasi
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Indonesian State Bureaucracy 2015Stronger
influence from political
institutions
Strongerorientation toward
Iibertarianapproach
Stronger orientation
toward social-democracy approach
Weaker Influence from
Political Institutions Pus
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Menentukan indikator kunci tiap skenario • Tentukan ciri-ciri pokok dari masing-masing
kutub.
• Tentukan implikasi dari bertemunya ciri-ciri yang melekat pada kutub yang relevan pada satu DF dan kutub yang relevan pada DF lainnya.
• Tentukan simbol atau frase yang asosiatif untuk masing-masing skenario.
LANGKAH-6
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Menyusun narasi skenario• Kembangkan sebuah narasi untuk setiap skenario berdasarkan
interaksi di antara ciri-ciri di masing-masing kutub.
• Setiap skenario berisi deskripsi elaboratif tentang implikasi bertemunya ciri-ciri pokok yang relevan.
• Gaya penulisan narasi amat beragam; dari yang menekankan proses hingga yang menekankan snapshot peristiwa; dari yang menekan aktor hingga hard-facts.
• Versi alternatif skenario: komik, cerita pendek, film, drama, dan karikatur.
LANGKAH-7
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TIPS menuliskan SKENARIO
• Penulisan skenario yang baik memerlukan imaginasi yang kuat atas teks dan konteks;
• Setiap skenario memiliki elemen konstitutif yang kontras terhadap skenario lainnya;
• Narasi skenario harus mampu menimbulkan minat dan hasrat yang kuat di kalangan aktor-aktor strategis dan publik yang lebih luas untuk terlibat dalam diskusi mengenai implikasi skenario terhadap “hidup mereka saat ini” dan “nasib kehidupan yang lebih luas di masa depan”
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Manfaat Scenario Planning (SP)
• SP membantu kita memahami masa depan secara lebih realistik karena menyertakan gambar serba-rupa dan serba-mungkin: “masa depan dengan sejumlah wajah”;
• SP menghindarkan kita dari kemendadakan, keterkejutan, dan keanehan;
• SP memberi manfaat pada para pengambil keputusan untuk menghindarkan the undesirable scenarios dan menciptakan kondisi yang memungkinkan bagi tercapainya the most desirable scenario melalui strategic planning.
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The Future of IndonesiaA Scenario Approach:
Indonesia 2025
daniel sparringa<[email protected]>
Part Two
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1. The development of political parties;2. The implementation of decentralisation;3. The amendment of constitution and or
laws regarding political system (UU Parpol, UU Pemilu, UU Susduk);
4. The development of Islam Politics;5. The growth of identity politics;
Shaping The FutureDriving Forces (1):
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6. Economic growth;7. The direction of National leadership;8. The commitment of political elites
toward a more meaningful democracy;9. Level of public participation;10. The development of discourse on
democracy;11. Globalisation.
Shaping The FutureDriving Forces (2):
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The development of civil society; The direction of national
leadership
Shaping The FutureThe three Most’s:
(the most direct, immediate, and critical)
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stronger nationalleadership
weaker national leadership
stronger civil society
weakercivil society
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the existence of shared-values; the increase of social trust; stronger social cohesion; the growing of social solidarity based on humanism; more balanced-partisipation; the growing of beliefs in social justice; stronger beliefs in social-political progress
Characteristics of each pole (1)
Stronger Civil Society
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sharp fragmentation of ideologies; growing of social distrust; widening of violent communal conflicts; the persistency of ethnic-religious sentiments; over-public participation; widening of perceived systemic injustice; stronger APES (apathy, pessimism, scepticsm);
Characteristics of each pole (2)
Weaker Civil Society
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the existence of common platform, vision, and goals;
the integration of political elites; more generative (adaptive and responsive) towards
changes; More creative approach in making breakthrough; Stronger orientation towards “free and fair” market; stronger commitment to a more meaningful
democracy; Stronger believe in rational politics;
Characteristics of each pole (3)
Stronger National Leadership
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rivalries on political platform, vision, and goals; lack of integration of political elites; more reactive towards events; “Free-floating” policies; stronger free market policies; More commitment toward a procedural democracy; political orientation towards “balanced-politics”
based on ethnic-religious affiliation;
Characteristics of each pole (4)
Weaker National Leadership
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stronger national leadership
stronger civil society
weaker national leadership
weakercivil society
sharp fragmentation of ideologies;
growing of social distrust; widening of violent
communal conflict; the persistency of ethnic-
religious sentiments; over-public participation; widening of perceived
systemic injustice; stronger APES (apathy,
pessimism, scepticsm);
the existence of common platform, vision, and goals;
the integration of political elites;
more generative (adaptive and responsive) towards changes;
creative in making breakthrough;
a more balanced economic policy between free and fair market;
stronger commitment to a more meaningful democracy;
believe in rational politics;
rivalries on political platform, vision, and goals;
lack of integration of political elites;
more reactive towards events;
floating approach and policy;
pro a stronger free market policy;
commitment toward a procedural democracy;
political orientation towards balanced-politics based on ethnic-religious politics;
the existence of shared-values;
the increase of social trust building;
stronger social cohesion;
the growing of social solidarity based on humanism;
more balanced-partisipation;
the growing of beliefs in social justice;
stronger beliefs in social-political progress
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stronger national leadership
stronger civil society
weaker national leadership
weaker civil society
tanah airku Indonesia,negeri elok amat kucinta,
tanah tumpah darahku yang mulia,yang kupuja s’panjang masa
tanah airku aman dan makmur,negeri elok yang amat subur,
. . . .
maju tak gentar,membela yang benar,
maju tak gentar,hak k ita diserang,
maju serentak,mengusir penyerang,
. . .bergerak, bergerak,serentak, serantak,
majulah menerjang terjang. . . .
perjalanan ini,terasa sangat menyedihkan,
. . .banyak cerita,
yang mestinya kau saksikan,di tanah kering berbatuan,
. . .bapak ibunya telah lama mati,
ditelan bencana tanah ini,. . .
mungkin Tuhan telah mulai bosan. . . .
kulihat ibu pertiw i,sedang bersusah hati,air matanya berlinang,
. . .menangis dan berdoa
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Cop
yright: Sh
ell Interna
tiona
l BV
Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050
Towards A New Energy Future
Darwin SilalahiPresident Director and Country Chairman
Shell Indonesia
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2
Disclaimer statement
This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions andinvolve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates,forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘will’’, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘risks’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘should’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this presentations, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for the Group’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserve estimates; (f) loss of market and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including potential litigation and regulatory effects arising from recategorisation of reserves; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance onforward-looking statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2007 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation, December 2008. Neither Royal Dutch Shell nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation.
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3
Shell has strong historical links with Indonesia
•1884, discovery of oil at Telaga Tunggal 1 well in Pangkalan Brandan (N Sumatra) led to establishment of "Provisional Sumatra Petroleum Co“…
•…which in 1890 then converted into the Royal Dutch Petroleum Co - established in NL
•1907, Royal Dutch Petroleum merged with British based Shell Trading and became what is today known as Royal Dutch Shell plc
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Shell in the World –#1 in 2009 Fortune Global 500 Companies
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Why Scenarios? –Discontinuities are not that obvious
“Well informed people know it is impossible to transmit voice over waves and that were it possible to do so, the thing would be of no practical value.”
Editorial in The Boston Post c.1865
“I think there is a market for about 5 computers.” Thomas J. Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943
“There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.” Ken Olsen, President of DEC, 1977
“$10 per barrel [oil] might actually be too optimistic. We may be heading for $5.” Economist magazine, 1999
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World’s energy systems –Time of unprecedented change
199910 $/bbl
200330 $/bbl
2005 60 $/bbl
2008 100-140 $/bbl
Source Economist Magazine Pusdik
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What, When and How? –Scenarios explore alternative futures
Harvard Business Review ‘Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead’, Pierre Wack, (Sept–Oct 1985) pp. 73–89;Pusdik
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The energy system today sets the context for the future
34% 21% 25% 10% 6% 4%
27% 46% 27%
World population 6.6 bln; 50% in urban environment Source: Shell International BV; UN Population Division
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The fundamentals – By 2050…
9 billion people2.5 billion more than today
2 billion carsdouble the number today
4-5 times richerwith most extra wealth coming from developing countries
80 % of world’s population in urban areasup from 50% today
1 billion more consumers in Asia
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The global demand for energy is growing, both in the developed and developing world.
The World’s Energy Challenge –3 Hard Truths
More energy means more CO2 emitted at a time when climate change looms as a critical global issue.
Supplies of “easy oil” cannot keep up with the growth in energy demand.
“More Energy, Less CO2”
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Increasing population & prosperity of rapidly growing economies drive energy demand
Source United Nations Population Division, 2004 Revision; Shell International BV, Oxford Economics and Energy Balances of OECD and Non-OECD Countries © OECD/IEA 2006 Pus
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Heavy industry
Services
Residential
Agriculture & other industry
Transport
Non energy use (e.g. petrochemicals)
World energy demand is on track to double by 2050.
“Business as usual” energy consumption by sector
Source: Shell International BV and Energy Balances of OECD and Non-OECD Countries©OECD/IEA 2006
0
200
400
600
800
1975 2000 2025 2050
exajou
lepe
r ye
ar
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Supply will struggle to keep pace…
“Easy” oil and gas may no longer keep up with demand after 2015
Coal use will increase but constrained by logistic limits
Nuclear growth constrained by politics, and recreation of 3 industries – uranium mining, EPC, waste management
Biofuels constrained by availability of arable land
Renewables – long lead time to scale up
…need all the energy we can get
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2007 2025 2050
North America EuropeLatin America Asia & OceaniaMiddle East & Africa
In “Business as usual” world, direct CO2from energy could rise dramatically
Unsustainable CO2 levels in atmosphere
28 Gt/yr
48
65
Source: Shell International BV
Science warns of a 450 ppm upper limit before major climate change events occur
Currently, CO2 concentration at 386ppm, rising at 2ppm (…or faster) a year
“Business as usual” could mean CO2 from energy reach 65Gt/yr in 2050…
…and by end of the century, global temperatures could be up to 6 ‘C above pre-industrial level
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Short Video
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A more reactive approach, first focusing on increasing energy supply and then facing the consequences later.
Difficult decisions are taken sooner, leading to a better balance of economic, human and environmental needs.
Two energy scenarios
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Scramble - Security of supply andfear of losing economic growth
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0
250
500
750
1000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
EJ per year
Oil GasCoal NuclearBiomass SolarWind Other Renewables
Total primary energy (EJ per year)
Scramble – Energy nationalism;Consequences for energy mix
Focus on national supply security,
supply access & self–reliance
Sequential, late & erratic responses to
hard truths
Energy price spikes, but no/ineffective
carbon pricing
Coal and Biofuels spotlighted
Focus on existing infrastructure
Patchwork of strong national standards
EVENTS OUTPACE ACTIONS
Flight to coal
Triple Impact
Rebound
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Blueprints – Energy security andsustainability
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0
250
500
750
1000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
EJ per year
Oil GasCoal NuclearBiomass SolarWind Other Renewables
Blueprints – Energy sustainability;Consequences for energy mix
Broad awareness of challenges at all
levels, not only national
Critical mass of parallel responses to hard truths, initiated by emergent coalitions
Carbon pricing established early
Efficiency & Electrification spotlighted
New infrastructure develops e.g. CCS
Coalescence of global standards
ACTIONS OUTPACE EVENTS
Patchwork Alignment
Intensity Reduction
Electrification
Total primary energy (EJ per year)Pus
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History -Traditional paths Revolutionary paths
1970-2005 1970-2050
0
100
200
300
400
0 40 80 120
GDP per capita (PPP, '000 2000 USD)
GJ per capita (primary energy)
0
100
200
300
400
0 10 20 30 40
GDP per capita (PPP, '000 2000 USD)
GJ per capita (primary energy)
Blueprints - Transition is inevitable;a revolution in energy pathways
Source: Shell International BV, Oxford Economics and Energy Balances of OECD and Non-OECD Countries © OECD/IEA 2006
USA
S.Korea
Japan
EU15
India
China
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Blueprints - Efficiency and innovationin transport
Source: Shell International BV and Energy Balances of OECD and Non-OECD Countries©OECD/IEA 2006
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2025 2050
Liquid fuels Electric transport
Passenger distance travelled (world)
ind e
x 2000 = 100
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Blueprints – CO2 capture and storage in power abates ~30% total emissions by 2050
0
10
20
30
40
2000 2030 2050
Source: Shell International BV and Energy Balances of OECD and Non-OECD Countries©OECD/IEA 2006
giga
tonn
epe
r ye
ar
Direct CO2 emissions from energy by sector
Power generation- CO2
captured & stored
Power generationNon-energy use
Residential
Transport
Services
Agriculture & other industry
Heavy Industry
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Implications for direct CO2 emissions from energy
Late reactions Early actions
Middle East & AfricaLatin America
Asia & Oceania - DevelopingAsia & Oceania - Developed
North AmericaEurope
giga
tonn
epe
r ye
ar0
10
20
30
40
50
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
giga
tonn
epe
r ye
ar
2050
0
10
20
30
40
50
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Source: Shell International BV and Energy Balances of OECD and Non-OECD Countries©OECD/IEA 2006 Pusdik
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World - Direct CO2 output from energy - ppmv pathways
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070
GtC
O 2/ ye
ar
HistoryScrambleBlueprintsBlueprints no CCSCO 1000 ppmv pathCO 550 ppmv pathCO 450 ppmv path
2
2
2
Consequences for CO2 emissions:-Climate stresses remain in both scenarios
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Comparing the scenarios: energy mix
Scramble Blueprints
Source: Shell International BV and Energy Balances of OECD and Non-OECD Countries©OECD/IEA 2006
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
exajou
lepe
r yea
r (ene
rgy source
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Solar Wind Other Renewables
Business as Usual
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0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
2000
2025
2050
Indonesia – dealing with implications of hard truths?
Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Solar Wind Other Renewables
Scramble Blueprints
Breakdown of total primary energy
Source: Shell International BV and Energy Balances of OECD and Non-OECD Countries©OECD/IEA 2006
Biomass includes traditional biomass such as wood, dung etc% Renewables in 2000 = 4% excl biomass, 32% incl biomassIn 2050 inll biomass SCR = 57%, BLU = 48%, excl. SCR 31%, BLU 37%
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
2000
2025
2050
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What this means for Indonesia
Massive investment and new skill sets will be required
Acquire technology for ‘challenged’ resources
Step up efforts to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels
Grow the share of renewable energy
Make haste on boosting energy efficiency
Double-up on cutting CO2 emissions. Play a key role in regional and global debates (e.g. ASEAN, G20, UN) on energy and climate change
Address energy price caps and huge subsidies
Knock on effect on investment & efficiency, impede the push for renewable energy
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One preferred approach: Blueprints
In our view, the Blueprints approach offers the best hope for a sustainable future
The environmental, human and economic outcomes seen in Blueprints make for a more sustainable world
Realizing a Blueprints scenario will not be easy, but we are working towards it…
BLUEPRINTS
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In summary – what we have learned
The three hard truths are very hard
Transition is both inevitable and necessary
Technology plays a major role, but no silver bullets
Political and regulatory choices are pivotal
The next 5 years are critical
Tackling all three hard truths TOGETHER is essential for a sustainable future
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?
??
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