perspectivas y tendencias en infraestructura · autopistas de peaje, servicios públicos regulados...
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2Moody’s Chile Briefing 2017
Agenda1. Desafíos para la inversión de infraestructura en la
región
2. Desarrollos recientes en autopistas chilenas
3. Mercado eléctrico chileno: Retos y oportunidades
4. ¿Boom en energías renovables?
4Moody’s Chile Briefing 2017
Desafíos en el sector de Infraestructura
Perspectivas de menorcrecimiento económico
Falta de proyectosfinanciables
Casos de corrupción
Gap infraestructura
Restricciones fiscales; Ratings soberanos
En el corto plazo
» Desafíos actuales y demoras asociadas a casos de corrupción
En el mediano-largo plazo
Latinoamérica se beneficiará de: – Compromiso a impulsar el
crecimiento vía la inversión en infraestructura
– Mayor desarrollo de APPs
– Marcos regulatorios fortalecidos
Infraestructura Regional
5Moody’s Chile Briefing 2017
Falta de proyectos financiablesLos factores claves que no logran atraer a los inversores institucionales:
– Diseño
– Planeamiento
– Estructuras legales
– Financiación
– Construcción
– Licencias, permisos, expropiaciones
Infraestructura: Activos de bajo riesgoTasas de default acumuladas
Fuente: Moody’s Investors Service: “Default and Rates for Project Finance and Bank Loans, 1983-2014” and “Default and Rates for Project Finance and Bank Loans, 1983-2014: Project Type and Jurisdiction Matter”
Infraestructura Regional
6Moody’s Chile Briefing 2017
Implicancias Crediticias
Crecimiento PBI
Restriccionesfiscales/ Soberano
Corrupción
Activos con riesgo de demanda:Autopistas de peaje, servicios públicosregulados y, en menor medida, aeropuertos
Factor de Riesgo Impacto Potencial
Riesgo de Contraparte:Emisores relacionados con el gobierno, APP de disponibilidad
Generalizado para proyectos en proceso en toda la región: demoras y retrasos
Infraestructura Regional
8Moody’s Chile Briefing 2017
Tráfico resistente frente al menor crecimiento económico
o Disponibilidad de crédito y parque automotor
o Crecimiento urbano y turismo interno
o Precios combustibles
o Eficiencia autopistas frente a alternativas
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
PBI real (% cambio) Crecimiento del tráfico %
Autopistas Chile
9Moody’s Chile Briefing 2017
Indicadores crediticios sólidos
1.50%
2.80%
4.60%4.40%
3%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
5.00%
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
%
Mill
ones
de
CLP
Ingresos Inflación
1.50
1.80
2.10
2.40
2.70
3.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
DSCR promedio
Autopistas Chile
10Moody’s Chile Briefing 2017
Inversiones en el sector lentas y limitadas
• Expansión de concesiones actuales
Vía extensión de los contratos o peajes adicionales
Limitado espacio para incrementar tarifas
• Pocas oportunidades de inversión en el corto/mediano plazo
Concesión AVO, USD 800 millones
Segunda Concesión Rutas del Loa, USD 190 millones
Ruta Nahuelbuta (Ruta 180), USD 160 millones
Autopistas Chile
12Moody’s Chile Briefing 2017
Los bajos precios de la electricidad llegaron para quedarse• Caída del 60% en los precios spot en los dos últimos años
• Presión a la baja sobre los precios de electricidad:
Desaceleración de la demanda
Precios de Commodities/ Combustibles
Cambios en el Mercado Eléctrico Chileno: Interconexión, nuevosproyectos renovables
Resultado de licitaciones recientes
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan-09
Apr-0
9
Jul-09
Oct-0
9
Jan-10
Apr-1
0
Jul-10
Oct-1
0
Jan-11
Apr-1
1
Jul-11
Oct-1
1
Jan-12
Apr-1
2
Jul-12
Oct-1
2
Jan-13
Apr-1
3
Jul-13
Oct-1
3
Jan-14
Apr-1
4
Jul-14
Oct-1
4
Jan-15
Apr-1
5
Jul-15
Oct-1
5
Jan-16
Apr-1
6
Jul-16
Oct-1
6
Jan-17
Spot prices Alto Jahuel 220 (U$S/MWh) Spot prices Crucero 220 (U$S/MWh)
Sector Eléctrico ChileSector Eléctico Chile
13Moody’s Chile Briefing 2017
Desaceleración de la demanda de electricidad• Clientes libres:
Débil crecimiento económico, retrasos en proyectos mineros
• Distribuidoras:
Eficiencias en el consumo de electricidad
Fenómeno de los “integradores” – clientes regulados con posibilidad de elección
0.30% 0.49%
3.39%
5.86%
5.24%
3.40%
5.58%
-0.37%
1.43%
0.02%
-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Añomóvil 1ertrim 2017
MW
h
Distribuidoras Clientes libres Crecimiento
Sector Eléctrico Chile
14Moody’s Chile Briefing 2017
Mercado Eléctrico: Período de importantes cambios• Interconexión SIC-SING - TEN
Mayor tamaño y liquidez: Reducción de las diferencias históricas precios SIC-SING
¿Exposición de clientes en el norte (SING) al riesgo hidroeléctrico (SIC)?
Mayor diversidad de recursos renovables no convencionales: Solares y eólicas
Renovables: 14% del sistema en abril 2017 vs 6% en 2016 (capacidad instalada y generación)
86% de los proyectos en construcción corresponde a energías renovables
Sector Eléctrico Chile
15Moody’s Chile Briefing 2017
Mercado Eléctrico: Retos y Oportunidades Rápido desarrollo y descenso de los costos de instalación de renovables
Caída de los precios medios ponderados de los contratos distribuidoras
Fuente: CNE
Requiere de ajustes y flexibilidad en el sistemaInterconexión al Sistema - Ley de Transmisión (2016)
Oferta intermitente - Programación servicios complementarios, creciente desafío, remuneración térmicas
Contratos a medio plazo en auge (clientes libres, “integradores”)
Pospone necesidades de incrementos de capacidad GNL-regasificación
Ago 2016
USD 47
Mw/h
Dic 2015
USD 79
Mw/h
Sector Eléctrico Chile
16Moody’s Chile Briefing 2017
Generadores convencionales: Impacto Financiero• Impacto a Corto y Medio plazo: LimitadoCaída de precios spot: limitado; alto nivel de contratación
Sin embargo, desaceleración de la demanda afecta: Mayoría de los contratos sin cláusulas “Take or Pay”
• Creciente Incertidumbre a partir del 2023 Resultado de las próximas licitaciones distribuidoras – volumen y precios
Financiación y comisión exitosa de los proyectos renovables (ERNC)
Requiere estructura de capital prudente
Empresa Tecnología % contratado
Vencimiento post 2021
AES Gener Térmica 94% 76%Angamos Carbón 99% 100%
Enel Generación Chile Hidro/Térmica 100% 86%
Sector Eléctrico Chile
17Moody’s Chile Briefing 2017
Tendencia a la baja en precios renovables es regional USD/ MWh
2012• 120
2016• 53
2010• 98
2012• 63
2016 1ra. subasta
• 42
2016 2da. subasta
• 33
Argentina Uruguay México
Adjudicaciones de energías renovables
Sector Eléctrico Chile
21Moody’s Chile Briefing 2017
Energías renovables: 3 categorías
1. Más del 95% de la oferta energética: Costa Rica y Uruguay
2. Crecimiento rápido: Argentina, Brasil, Chile
3. Crecimiento más lento: Perú, México, Colombia
(*) En países como Chile la generación de grandes plantas hidroeléctricas no califican como recurso renovable; solamente la generación de mini-hidros (<20MW)
(**) Generación agregada SIC y SING (interconexión)
Fuente: Operadores de mercado locales y entes reguladores; Moody's
74%
57%65%
26% 27%
11%
48%
72%
2%
3%
18%
68% 65%
82%
49%
28%11%
22%
7%
1% 3% 1%2%
0%
1%
3%1%
12% 18%9% 2%
1% 1% 4% 2% 4% 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Costa Rica Uruguay Brazil Argentina Chile (*) Mexico Peru Colombia
Hidro (centrales grandes y pequeñas) Combustibles fósiles Viento Solar Geotermal/Biomasa Otros
Hidro principal
Renovables en auge
Sector Eléctico Regional
22Moody’s Chile Briefing 2017
Consideraciones para el desarrollo de renovables:
Eólicos: Brasil, Uruguay, Argentina
Solar : Norte de Chile/Sur de Perú, México, Argentina
Biomasa (Uruguay), Geotérmica (Costa Rica)
Objetivos ambientales varían entre países– Más agresivos en Chile; menos agresivos en Perú y Colombia
Licitaciones distribuidoras: Contratos de LP Argentina: 10 años eólicos, 20 solar / Uruguay: 20 años eólico, 25/30 solar
Amplia disponibilidad de gas frena el desarrollo en México y Perú
Disponibilidad de recursos
Políticas ambientales y objetivos
Acceso a gas
Riesgo hidrológico (volatilidad)
Locaciones disponibles: Económicamente menoseficientes
Oposición ambiental y social
Desarrollo grandeshidros
Sector Eléctrico Regional
23Moody’s Chile Briefing 2017
Licitaciones distribuidoras: Clave para desarrollo de renovables
Centralizadas: Todos exceptoColombia
Text
Depreciación Acelerada
Excepción IVA/ I. Ingresos
Imp. Carbono (Chile)
Objetivos medioambientales Incentivos Fiscales
Subastas Públicas
Perú
Tarifa preferencial (feed-in)
Políticas de Incentivos hacia Renovables
Argentina 20% 2025Brasi 86% 2023Chile 20% 2025Colombia No NAC. Rica 97% 2018México 50% 2050Perú 6% 2018Uruguay 90% 2015
Fuente: International Renewable Energy Agency, National legislation
Sector Eléctrico Regional
24Moody’s Chile Briefing 2017
Desafíos en el desarrollo de ERNC
Cuellos de botella: Retrasos en la conexión de proyectos
Plazo contratos
Precios agresivos y nuevas tecnologías
Garantías
Tortuosa gestión ambiental y social
Transmisión
Comisión y Financiación
Oposición social y retos ambientales
Chile: Demanda sector minero, servicios auxiliares
Costa Rica: Embalses de hidroeléctricas para compensar Oferta intermitente -
recursos de respaldo
Sector Eléctrico Regional
25Moody’s Chile Briefing 2017
Caso de Estudio – Uruguay: Cambios en la matriz energética
Volatilidadhidroelectricidad:
(sequía)
Cese de exportaciones GN
Argentino
Altos precios petróleo
Políticas públicasLicitaciones:
Factores que favorecieron el desarrollo de renovables (2009-2016)
Precio medio licitaciones (2010 – 2012): US$60/MWh
Ampliadisponibilidad de recursos eólicos
Sector Eléctrico RegionalSector Eléctrico Regional
Sector Eléctrico RegionalSector Eléctrico Regiona
Alejandro OlivoAssociate Managing Director
Tel: [email protected]
Natividad Martel, CFAVP – Senior AnalystTel: +1.212.553.4561
Daniela CuanVP – Senior Analyst
Tel: [email protected]
Bernardo CostaVP – Senior Analyst
Tel: [email protected]
27Moody’s Chile Briefing 2017
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