planning future libraries and ‘ creating the future’ 未来图书馆运作模式:创造未来...
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Planning Future Libraries and‘Creating the Future’
未来图书馆运作模式:创造未来
Steve O’Connor
University Librarian
The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
December 2007
“There are an infinite number of stories about the future; our purpose is to tell those that matter” Lawrence Wilkinson
Tunnel Vision 管中窥天
Light at the end of the tunnel 亮光出现在隧道的尽头
Vision gets narrower 视线是狭窄 Open it up ? 打开它如何? Think ‘outside the box’ 跳出盒子来
思考 Allow for outrageous thoughts 允许
奇异的想法 There is nothing which cannot be
changed ! 世上没有什么是不可以改变的!
INSERT BINOCULARS
Future Thinking
What it is not…Strategic planning
…Only thinking about what to do tomorrow
How not to change …Cling to present views of ‘our’ world
…Not being able to conceive of other ways of doing
…Wait for others outside our environment to tell us what to do; to reduce budget ; to force change of direction; to become less relevant
University Libraries
Two Manifestations:– Physical– Digital
Both are very popular Serve similar but different purposes
Use of the Physical Library - Entry
Entry Total & Entry per FTE 1997-2006
139 128
159181
162 151 159 167 162 154
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
Total Entry 43% in 10 years;
Entry per FTE 11% in 10 years
1,954,360
2,798,826
7,668 users walked in the Library on an average day in 2006
Use of the Physical Library - Loans
Loans Total & Loan per FTE 1997-2006
51 54 56 5552 55
59 58 5652
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Book Loans 30% in 10 years
Loan per FTE remains quite stable
721,976
938,183
Use of the Digital Library – Web Access
2,203,058
2,670,4552,958,995
189,138362,214 415,901
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
2004 2005 2006
Visit to Library Website 30% in 2 years.
Articles downloaded from Science Direct by PolyU users
120% in 2 years.
Visit : a unique host active during the period of an hour.
VPN usage increased by 84% from 2004 to 2007 (ITS statistics)
Our Academic Book Industry
US academic books publishing keep static even US academic library purchases of print resources down 8% in 2002
Chinese academic book titles rose 25% and sales volumes increased 13% in 2004
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
US Academic Book Industry
Title
SUMMATION: Print Book industry is not shrinking; academic book industry ????
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Chinese Academic Book Industry
Title
Top ten assumptions for the future of academic libraries and librarians(ACRL Research Committee)
3. Students and faculty will increasingly demand faster and greater access to services.
6. Higher education will increasingly view the institution as a business.
7. Students will increasingly view themselves as customers and consumers, expecting high-quality facilities and services.
8. Distance learning will be an increasingly more common option in higher education, and will coexist but not threaten the traditional bricks-and-mortar model.
College & Research Libraries News, April 2007
Our E-book Industry
SUMMATION: E-book industry is flourishing but what will be long-term user reaction?
•In 2007, 88% of academic libraries use e-books
•More and more academic publishers, such as Oxford University Press, Wiley and Elsevier, publish their books in print and electronic format at the same time
•Chinese academic libraries use of e-books increased 16% in 2005
Chinese e-book titles increased to 210,000 titles
•More and more academic publishers published their books in both formats
Our Users
User use Google first: 89% uses search engine…2% use library catalogue
Research says Wikopedia as accurate as Britannica
Broadband penetration rates important
SUMMATION: Students are young; researchers are older;Who are we designing THIS Library for?
Generation Y students study differently and becoming next generation of researchers
Growing emphasis on research as well as teaching
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19
Period
Use
Normal Life Cycle 一般的生命周期
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19
Period
Use
Life Cycle with Spikes 跳跃的生命周期
Life Cycle with Long Tail 长尾巴的生命周期
Growth of Digital… 增长的数字化资源
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Web
Digital
What is YOUR prediction for – Web? %– Digital? %– Print? %
Think about it for OUR Library and YOUR research needs
Digital Futures in Web 2.0
Planning for delivery of ‘Born Digital’ and ‘Born Again Digital’
Working toward Institutional Repository for PolyU More powerful and discriminating meta search
engine software Creation of AVATARS.. Librarians roaming the net Creation of ‘boutique’ libraries Using PDA devices, especially mobiles with touch Working more collaboratively
Trends
Anything ‘born’ or ‘born-again’ digital will be used ! User preference is for digital but require print-out
capability Much print will NEVER be digitised Academics prefer to remotely from the Library,
except when lecturing Library has two manifestations ..
– Physical, and – Digital
Role of a Business Model运作模式的角色
Sources of InputsSources of Inputs资源的来源
Value and informationValue and informationOutputsOutputs
信息资源的输出BUSINESSBUSINESS
MODELMODEL运作的模式
Fast Food快餐
BUSINESSBUSINESSMODELMODEL
运作的模式
Sources of InputsSources of Inputs资源的来源
Value and informationValue and informationOutputsOutputs
信息资源的输出
Role of a Business Model运作模式的角色
Fast Food快餐
McDonalds麦当劳模式
BUSINESSBUSINESSMODELMODEL
运作的模式
Sources of InputsSources of Inputs资源的来源
Value and informationValue and informationOutputsOutputs
信息资源的输出
Role of a Business Model运作模式的角色
Fast Food快餐
McDonalds麦当劳模式
Convenience, satisfy hunger方便、满足客户
Sources of InputsSources of Inputs资源的来源
BUSINESSBUSINESSMODELMODEL
运作的模式
Value and informationValue and informationOutputsOutputs
信息资源的输出
Role of a Business Model运作模式的角色
Fast Food快餐
McDonalds FAST JUNK FOODMcDonalds FAST HEALTHY FOOD 麦当劳垃圾食物 麦当劳健康食物
Convenience, satisfy hunger 方便、满足客户
Sources of InputsSources of Inputs资源的来源
BUSINESSBUSINESSMODELMODEL
运作的模式
Value and informationValue and informationOutputsOutputs
信息资源的输出
Role of a Business Model运作模式的角色
Role of a TRADITIONAL Library Business Model传统图书馆运作模式的角色
Books and Journals图书和期刊
User find what they can.. Good luck!!读者查到他们所需的资料。。运气好!!
Sources of InputsSources of Inputs资源的来源
BUSINESSBUSINESSMODELMODEL
运作的模式
Value and informationValue and informationOutputsOutputs
信息资源的输出
Role of a TRADITIONAL Library Business Model传统图书馆运作模式的角色
Collecting , preserving, reactive收集、保存、反馈
Sources of InputsSources of Inputs资源的来源
BUSINESSBUSINESSMODELMODEL
运作的模式
Value and informationValue and informationOutputsOutputs
信息资源的输出
Books and Journals图书和期刊
User find what they can.. Good luck!!读者查到他们所需的资料…运气好!!
Role of a Business Model运作模式的角色
More digital and
‘Free-to-air’更多数字资源和免费资源
How is the client assisted when they are
less likely to be in a physical Library??
当读者不再来图书馆,我们应该怎样提供服务?
Sources of InputsSources of Inputs资源的来源
BUSINESSBUSINESSMODELMODEL
运作的模式
Value and informationValue and informationOutputsOutputs
信息资源的输出
Role of a Library Model运作模式的角色
What is the new Business or Operating Model What is the new Business or Operating Model for the Library ??for the Library ?? 什么是图书馆新的经营或运作的模式??什么是图书馆新的经营或运作的模式??
Sources of InputsSources of Inputs资源的来源
BUSINESSBUSINESSMODELMODEL
运作的模式
Value and informationValue and informationOutputsOutputs
信息资源的输出
Publishing cycle 出版周期USER as AuthorUSER as Author
使用者是著者使用者是著者
PublisherPublisher出版社出版社
Librarian as funderLibrarian as funder图书馆员是建立者图书馆员是建立者
USER asUSER asReaderReader
使用者是读者使用者是读者
IPRIPR知识产权
Publishing cycle 出版周期
USER asUSER asReaderReader
使用者是读者使用者是读者
Librarian as funderLibrarian as funder图书馆员是建立者图书馆员是建立者
PublisherPublisher出版社出版社
USER as AuthorUSER as Author使用者是著者使用者是著者
$$$$$$
Publishing cycle 出版周期
Librarian as funderLibrarian as funder图书馆员是建立者图书馆员是建立者
PublisherPublisher出版社出版社
USER as AuthorUSER as Author使用者是著者使用者是著者
USER asUSER asReaderReader
使用者是读者使用者是读者
IPRIPR知识产权
$$$$$$
Publishing cycle 出版周期USER as AuthorUSER as Author
读者也是著者读者也是著者
USER asUSER asReaderReader
使用者是读者使用者是读者
Librarian as funderLibrarian as funder图书馆员是建立者图书馆员是建立者
PublisherPublisher出版社出版社
IPRIPR知识产权
How many models are there currently ????
目前存在多少模式????
Publishing cycle 出版周期
USER asUSER asReaderReader
使用者是读者使用者是读者
Librarian as funderLibrarian as funder图书馆员是建立者图书馆员是建立者
PublisherPublisher出版社出版社
USER as AuthorUSER as Author使用者是著者使用者是著者
? ? ? ? ?
Sources of InputsSources of Inputs资源的来源
BUSINESSBUSINESSMODELMODEL
运作的模式
Value and informationValue and informationOutputsOutputs
信息资源的输出
Role of a TRADITIONAL Library Business Model传统图书馆运作模式的角色
In this context let’s briefly review… 以下我们来简单地回顾一下…
Publishing industry 出版行业
Life cycle 出版物的生命周期
Collection development 馆藏建设
Professional Publishing and Information Universe 专业出版社和信息资源
7,982
6,850
6,143
4,275
4,229
4,220
3,555
1,730
1,377
1,119
880
649
293
Reed Elsevier
Thomson
Pearson
VNU
McGraw-Hill
Reuters
Wolters Kluwer
Scholastic
Dow Jones
UBM
Springer
John Wiley
Taylor & Francis
(a)
STM
Legal & Tax
Financial
B2B
Education
Media/Marketing
Other
Note: $/€ FX rate of 1.1322, £/€ FX rate of 0.7090Note: $/€ FX rate of 1.1322, £/€ FX rate of 0.7090(a)(a) Combined KAP/Springer entity.Combined KAP/Springer entity.
Total 2002 Sales (€ in m)Total 2002 Sales (€ in m) 2002 2002 销售总数(百万欧元)销售总数(百万欧元)
A Truly Global Industry全球出版业的现状
Reed ElsevierReed Elsevier Wolters KluwerWolters Kluwer
PearsonPearson
64%
28%
8%
46%49%
5%
USUS
19%
8%
73%
EuropeEurope% of Revenues Originating from:% of Revenues Originating from:
收入来源收入来源 %%Rest of the WorldRest of the World
VNUVNU
36%
11%
53%(a)
(a)(a) Includes Canada.Includes Canada.
Publishing Business Models出版业运作模式
Different business models 不同的运作模式
Very significant cash flows大量的现金流通
What about Open Access ?开放取阅将会带来怎样变化?
Life Cycle of Books and Journal Articles 图书和期刊文章的生命周期
Patterns changing 形式的变化 Libraries had archival role 图书馆有贮存的作用 Publishers now current archive 当前出版商也贮存 Old cycle model no longer relevant 旧周期模式不再适用
Affecting business model 对运作模式的影响 What business have libraries been in ? 图书馆应该如何
运作? What impact will life cycle changes have for libraries ? 生
命周期的变化对图书馆有什么影响?
Emergence of ‘Long Tail’‘ 长尾巴’的出现
Affecting many industries 对多行业的影响
– Music 音乐– Books 图书– Movies 电影
If you can digitise older, very low or no use material, ‘they will come’ 如果将旧的、低用量或没用量的馆藏数字化,该类资源将会刺激使用量 , ‘ 长尾巴就出现’
What is the impact on library collections? 对图书馆馆藏有什么影响?
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Do
wn
load
s
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55
Volume
AJ Agricultural ResearchDownloads per Volume
1 November 2004 to 22 May 2005
《农业研究》每册下载数量 2004 年 11 月至 2005 年 5月
Future of Print and Collection Growth 未来图书的形式和馆藏的增长
Journals to be disaggregated 期刊将被分拆开 Collections of articles, and book chapters not
books and journals 期刊分成文章、图书分成章 Institutional Repositories of university staff
publications 大学教职员出版物的机构贮存库 Can purchase on a partial basis 允许定购出版物的
部分章节 Impact of Learning Objects as new forms of
information 新形式的学习对象 ‘Cut and Paste’ OR ‘Cut and post’ mentality ‘ 剪和
贴’或‘剪和网上发表’的心态
Published Output Held 拥有出版物的比例
Percentage of Australian holdings of English language monographs published overseas 1975-1995
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
% h
eld
1975-1995 非澳大利亚出版的英文书的馆藏百分比
Distributed Collections Model 分散式的收藏模式 Adapted from and used with permission of Brian Schottlaender使用以下内容已征得布赖恩同意
Increasing shared management
Decreasing library autonomy
Increasing archival assurance
Decreasing object access
Primary Service Layer: Local Libraries初级服务层次:地方图书馆
“Bright”
Full user services, access, circulation, significant redundancy全面读者服务、获取信息、流通,大量裁员
Tertiary Service Layer: Archival Repositories三级服务层次:档案贮存库
“Dark” No user services, emergency institutional services, planned redundancy 无需读者服务,紧急机构服务,有计划裁员
Secondary Service Layer: Regional Repositories次级服务层次:区域贮存库
“Dim”
Limited user services, planned redundancy有限读者服务,有计划裁员
增加联合管理
减少图书馆的自治权
增加档案功能减少获取实物
Shared profiling 1 共享资源
0%20%40%60%80%
100%
1 2 3 4 5
Subjects
Library One
Shared profiling 2 共享资源
Percent Collect
ed
0%20%40%60%80%
100%
1 2 3 4 5
Subjects
A Three-Library Shared Profile
What have we seen……我们已经看到…
Can you predict the near future?你能预言未来吗?
What is your library’s Business Model ? 你图书馆的运作模式是什么?
What Business Model do you want to aim at ? 你的运作模式要达到什么目标?
Will the Long Tail affect your library ?长尾巴会影响到你的图书馆吗?
What form will collections take in the future? 未来馆藏将采用什么形式?
Emerging Trends in the BroaderEnvironment
www.lib.polyu.edu.hkGo to……