plano nacional energético 2050
TRANSCRIPT
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Plano Nacional Energético 2050
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INTRODUÇÃOFelipe
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Introdução
• Objetivos:
- Expansão da oferta de energia;
- Observar riscos de segurança;
- Garantir à população acesso à energia;
- Geração empregos;
- Reduzir desigualdades regionais;
- Desenvolvimento tecnológico nacional;
- Novas matrizes energéticas;
- Redução de preços e tarifas.
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Contextualização
• Criação da EPE pela lei nº 10.847/2004.
• Finalidades:
- Contribuir ao setor energético com novas pesquisas;
- Realizar projeções da matriz energética nacional.
• O PNE 2050 incorpora novas tendências e tecnologias ao PNE 2030, publicado em 2007.
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Ambiência
• Justificativa para novas pesquisas: Mudanças climáticas
Transporte
Geração
Utilização eficiente
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DESAFIOS PARA O LONGO PRAZO
Renan / Yuri
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• Desenvolvimento de Países emergentes
• Poder econômico
• Economia Chinesa
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Alianças comercias do Sul
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Crédito versus Taxa de Carbono
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Indústria da Transformação
• Forte concorrência Externa
• Menor valor agregado, maior competitividade
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Transformações de não-metálicos
• Produtos pesados, oneram o transporte
• Consumo aumenta com crescimento econômico
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• Crescimento de mais de 140%
• Menor necessidade: saturação da infraestrutura
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Consumo de não-metálicos x Renda
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Aços e Derivados
• Grande exposição à concorrência internacional
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• Acesso ao minério e complexo logístico
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• Expansão da produção de ligas
• Nióbio
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Consumo de Aço x Renda
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Transformação de não Ferrosos
• Alto gasto energético e investimento inicial
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• Oferta diminui aumentando o preço
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Consumo de Alumínio x Renda
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Cenário Mundial
Trajetórias
Mudanças(faixa etária)
Impacto(mudanças climáticas)
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Evolução da população mundial
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India ultrapassa China
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Redução da população em idade ativa
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Projeção IEA(agência internacional de energia)
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E7 vs G7
China ultrapassa USA em 2025
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PIB cresce 2013-20
Crescimentos países emergentes no período
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Mudanças climáticas
Efeito Estufa: Avanço superior a 30%(1990)
USA e China correspondem 1/3 da emissão.
Comprometimento países na COP
Ações podem reduzir o crescimento econômico
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Geopolítico de Energia
Mudança na matriz energética
Redução dos combustíveis fósseis
Energias renováveis vs carvão
USA:maiores produtores de petróleo(2020)
Oriente Médio perde mercado
Planejamento energético dependerá de todos.
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Preços de Combustíveis (USD/MMBTU)
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Cenário NacionalTiago Palte
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Taxa de crescimento
• População brasileira cresceu apenas 1,2% na primeira década do século XXI
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Projeção da população para 2050
• Para 2050, o país terá 225 milhões de habitantes
• Taxa de crescimento deverá ser -0,291%
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População por grupos de idade
• Sinaliza o processo de envelhecimento populacional
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População brasileira por faixa etária e sexo
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Despesas governamentais por faixa etária• Previdência pode ter
déficit de 5,6% do PIB em 2050
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Expectativa de vida para 2050
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Evolução da população brasileira por região
• Ganho de participação ocorrerá nas regiões Norte e Centro-Oeste
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Taxa de urbanização
• Em 2050, cerca de 30 milhões de pessoas a mais serão consideradas urbanas.
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Relação habitante/domicílio
• Em 2010 a razão de habitantes por domicílio era de 3,3
• Em 2050 a projeção é que essa relação chegue a 2,3
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Taxa de crescimento do PIB per capita
• A taxa de crescimento média no período 2014-2050 é de 3,7%
• PIB per capita de US$42,3 (mil dólares de 2012) em 2050
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Evolução dos investimentos (% do PIB)
• Sucesso das autoridades econômicas em manter um ambiente econômico relativamente estável.
• Espera-se uma elevação dos investimentos privados e públicos
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Demanda energética por setor
• TEP = Tonelada Equivalente de Petróleo
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Cenário SetorialTiago Faxina / Felipe
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PNE 2050Cenário Setorial
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Cenário SetorialHistórico
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Cenário SetorialEvolução dos Macrosetores
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Cenário SetorialAgropecuária
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Cenário Setorial
Projeção da Produção Agropecuária
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Cenário SetorialProjeção da Produção Agropecuária
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Cenário SetorialIndústria
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Cenário SetorialIndústria
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Cenário SetorialIndústria
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Cenário SetorialIndústria de construção civil
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Indústria da transformação
• Papel e celulose
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Indústria da transformação
• Papel e celulose
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Indústria da transformação
• Papel e celulose
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Indústria da transformação
• Papel e celulose
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Indústria da transformação
• Papel e celulose
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Indústria da transformação
• Refino de petróleo
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Indústria da transformação
• Produção de etanol
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Indústria química
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Indústria química
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Indústria química
• Petroquímica
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Indústria química
• Petroquímica
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Indústria química
• Fertilizantes
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Indústria química
• Fertilizantes
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Indústria química
• Fertilizantes
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Indústria química
• Fertilizantes
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Indústria química
• Soda-cloro
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Indústria química
• Soda-cloro
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Indústria química
• Soda-cloro
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Indústria automotiva
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Indústria automotiva